nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2016‒10‒02
nineteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Policy initiatives and Örmsíaccess to external finance: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies By Udichibarna Bose; Ronald McDonald; Serafeim Tsoukas
  2. Contracting Out the Last-Mile of Service Delivery: Subsidized Food Distribution in Indonesia By Banerjee, Abhijit; Hanna, Rema; Kyle, Jordan C.; Olken, Benjamin A.; Sumarto, Sudarno
  3. Philippines; 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Philippines By International Monetary Fund.
  4. Prospects for Taiwan’s Participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership By Jeffrey J. Schott; Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs; Zhiyao Lu; Sean Miner
  5. One belt one road initiative in Central Asia: implications for competitiveness of Russian economy By M. Královičová; M. Žatko
  6. Impacts of rural road on household welfare in Vietnam: Evidence from a replication study By Cuong Viet Nguyen
  7. Conflict: Opening up to International Investment and Diversification – a case study of Vietnam By Dr. Stephanie Jones; Rafael Masters
  8. Global Oriental Management: the Resurgence of Asian Leadership and Management Style By JOSEP M. COLL, PhD.
  9. Discrete Sums of Geometric Brownian Motions, Annuities and Asian Options By Dan Pirjol; Lingjiong Zhu
  10. Local elections, political fragmentation, and service delivery in Indonesia By Blane Lewis
  11. Regional pull vs global push factors: China and US influence on Asia-Pacific financial markets By Chang Shu; Dong He; Jinyue Dong; Honglin Wang
  12. Short Maturity Asian Options in Local Volatility Models By Dan Pirjol; Lingjiong Zhu
  13. Trust under the Prospect Theory and Quasi-Hyperbolic Preferences: A Field Experiment in Vietnam By Quang Nguyen; Marie Claire Villeval; Hui Xu
  14. Renewable energy trade within Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries: an exploratory analysis By Kaliappa Kalirajan; Yichang Liu
  15. Land Cover and Land Use Indicators: Review of available data By Vasco Diogo; Eric Koomen
  16. Progress in diversification of the economy in Kazakhstan By Alibek Konkakov; Gulaikhan Kubayeva
  17. Migration, poverty and equality By Andersen, Lykke E.
  18. LEGITIMATE OVERSIGHT IN ISLAMIC BANKS By Naima Ismail H. Aldaikey; Abdul Rahim Ahmad; Mohamad Sabri Bin Haron
  19. Cardiac Arrest or Dizzy Spell: Why is World Trade So Weak and What can Policy Do About It? By David Haugh; Alexandre Kopoin; Elena Rusticelli; David Turner; Richard Dutu

  1. By: Udichibarna Bose; Ronald McDonald; Serafeim Tsoukas
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of policy initiatives co-ordinated by Asian national govern- ments on firms composition of external finance. Using a unique firm-level database of eight Asian countries- Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Tai- wan and Thailand over the period of 1996-2012 and a difference-in-differences approach, the results show a significant response of the debt composition to the policy change. We find that firms increased their uptake of long-term debt, while decreased their short-term debt. We also document that less risky and more profitable firms are more significantly affected by the policy change than riskier and less profitable firms. Finally, we show that the improved access to external finance after the policy initiative helped firms to raise their investment spending.
    Keywords: External finance; Emerging Asia; Policy initiatives; Financial constraints
    JEL: C23 E44 G15 G32 O16
    Date: 2016–07
  2. By: Banerjee, Abhijit (MIT); Hanna, Rema (Harvard University); Kyle, Jordan C. (International Food Policy Research Institute); Olken, Benjamin A. (MIT); Sumarto, Sudarno (National Team for the Acceleration of Poverty Reduction, Jakarta)
    Abstract: Outsourcing government service provision to private firms can improve efficiency and reduce rents, but there are risks that non-contractible quality will decline and that reform could be blocked by vested interests exactly where potential gains are greatest. We examine these issues by conducting a randomized field experiment in 572 Indonesian localities in which a procurement process was introduced that allowed citizens to bid to take over the implementation of a subsidized rice distribution program. This led 17 percent of treated locations to switch distributors. Introducing the possibility of outsourcing led to a 4.6 percent reduction in the markup paid by households. Quality did not suffer and, if anything, households reported the quality of the rice improved. Bidding committees may have avoided quality problems by choosing bidders who had relevant experience as traders, even if they proposed slightly higher prices. Mandating higher levels of competition by encouraging additional bidders further reduced prices. We document offsetting effects of having high rents at baseline: when the initial price charged was high and when baseline satisfaction levels were low, entry was higher and committees were more likely to replace the status quo distributor; but, incumbents measured to be more dishonest on an experimental measure of cheating were also more likely to block the outsourcing process. We find no effect on price or quality of providing information about program functioning without the opportunity to privatize, implying that the observed effect was not solely due to increased transparency. On net, the results suggest that contracting out has the potential to improve performance, though the magnitude of the effects may be partially muted due to push back from powerful elites.
    Date: 2016–01
  3. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: The Philippine economy has performed well in recent years with rising potential growth and strong macro fundamentals. Economic growth is supported by robust domestic demand and is broadly in line with potential while the outlook for inflation is well within the target band (3±1 percent). The external position is sound and fiscal policy is prudent, with a low and declining debt-to-GDP ratio. The strong economic performance, however, has not yet fully benefited a wide range of the population. Poverty and inequality remain high. Poor infrastructure has constrained private investment and job creation. Public investment has risen but continues to be low due to weak implementation capacity, while progress has been made on fiscal transparency. Investment in infrastructure and human capital, financed through increased government revenues while allowing a small increase in the deficit, is needed alongside structural reforms to reap the Philippines’ demographic dividend, promote inclusive growth and reduce poverty.
    Date: 2016–09–26
  4. By: Jeffrey J. Schott (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Zhiyao Lu (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Sean Miner (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Taiwan has long faced declining competitiveness due to both slow domestic economic reforms and discrimination from nonparticipation in many free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region, which have caused (or threatened) trade and investment diversion. Participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could mitigate much of the discrimination faced by Taiwanese exporters and investors in Asia-Pacific markets. To join, Taiwan would need to undertake significant policy reforms to meet TPP requirements for liberalization of goods, services, investment, and other areas including the environment and intellectual property rights (IPRs). In some areas Taiwan’s existing bilateral agreements with China and TPP members New Zealand and Singapore have significant gaps with TPP standards, while others should not be as difficult to bridge. The Briefing also considers the status of US-Taiwan trade and investment relations and outstanding bilateral irritants, including concerns over agricultural market access and animal health and safety regulations, Taiwanese foreign direct investment restrictions and approval process, IPRs, and exchange rate policy. Resolving these issues will be critical for US support for Taiwan’s TPP participation.
    Date: 2016–09
  5. By: M. Královičová (University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia); M. Žatko (University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia)
    Abstract: At the end of 2013, the Chinese government announced its intention to create the new strategic initiative called “One Belt One Road“, which includes a significant amount of countries from the Asia, the Middle East, the Africa and the Europe, and aims at the deepening of economic and security cooperation among participating countries. Furthermore, it covers the cooperation in the infrastructure. The initiative is now gaining its real shape, with the negotiations between potential participants being held between their highest political representatives. The total number of participating countries in not yet known, however, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Thailand, Hungary, Spain and Russia are among many other countries, which have already confirmed their participation in the initiative. If successfully carried out, the project has a huge potential to influence international business flows, not only in Asia but also within the global economy. Numerous projects that are already well under way include China's most important trading partners, namely Central Asian countries and Russia. Especially in case of Russia that is currently facing serious economic problems, it is quite uncertain whether this initiative would have positive or negative impact on its own competitiveness. While planned logistic platforms and transport corridors built in Central Asia could possibly lead to increase of mutual trade, construction of energy infrastructure projects in the same area could possibly harm Russian economy. The aim of this paper is to critically assess consequences of currently implemented projects on the Russian economy, and to look at perspectives of their further development.
    Keywords: China, competitiveness, Russia, Trade Complementarity Index, Central Asia
    JEL: F63 F42 F53 F21
    Date: 2016–08
  6. By: Cuong Viet Nguyen
    Abstract: Recently, there is a call for replication research to validate empirical findings, especially findings important for development policies. Thus, this study tried to replicate estimation results from Mu and van de Walle ("Rural Roads and Local Market Development in Vietnam" published in Journal of Development Studies 2011). Overall, the author is able to replicate the most estimates from Mu and van de Walle. He finds the positive effect of rural road on local market development. In addition to the pure replication, the author also estimates the effect of the road project on additional outcomes including access to credit and migration, but do not find significant effects on these outcomes.
    Keywords: replication,impact,evaluation,propensity,score,matching,rural,road,Vietnam
    JEL: H43 O12 C14
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Dr. Stephanie Jones (Associate Professor, Organizational Behavior, Maastricht School of Management); Rafael Masters (Part-time student on the Maastricht MBA Program, School of Industrial Management, Ho Chi Minh University of Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
    Abstract: One of the first pre-requisites for a country trying to attract foreign investment – especially one closed to international trade for many years – is to encourage entrepreneurship. An entrepreneur is often described as a person who can not only organize and manage an enterprise, especially a business, but who usually shows initiative and risk. In most places this would indeed be true. People hoping to succeed in business will have to use their initiative to seek out markets and offer attractive products, and bear the risk of wasting their time, effort and a large amount of money should their venture go awry. In Vietnam, however, the entrepreneurship success formula or paradigm has an interesting twist to it. As a developing country with a high level of technical competency and a young population, entrepreneurs will need to take the initiative to survive in a highly competitive and constantly evolving business environment, where trends can change quickly and their prospective customers or clients will be constantly looking for the next big thing. The risk, however, is offset by the low barriers to entry and starting up, the availability of cheap labor, and the low cost of living. So whilst entrepreneurs need to be quick and take advantage of every opportunity that comes their way, they need not necessarily risk everything to launch their dream company.
    Date: 2016–08
  8. By: JOSEP M. COLL, PhD. (Department of Strategy, Leadership & People - EADA Business School Barcelona)
    Abstract: The global turn towards Asia challenges the -still dominant- West to rethink its place in a world that is increasingly bound to Asia’s growth and development. This paper argues that Asia, by reconnecting and empowering the wisdom found in its indigenous philosophies, has the chance to lead the world not only economically, but also socially and sustainably. This wisdom can be straightforwardly channeled into a new holistic management paradigm rooted in universal values and the culture of self-improvement. A new concept is proposed herein, that of Global Oriental Management (GOM) as a new holistic leadership and management model built from ancient Asian thinking systems. It is rooted in Taoism, Zen Buddhism and Confucianism, together with the most advanced Western management science. This blended approach has two important characteristics: firstly, it is the first comprehensive leadership and management model intellectually born in the East that has global managerial implications, that is, it is meant for being useful and relevant for organizations both in the East and the West; and secondly, it is characterized by the application of human and social values that have a huge impact on the transformational leadership of any organization that wishes to change itself and make a bigger impact in the world.
    Keywords: Asian leadership and management, indigenous innovation, organizational change, Yin-Yang, Taoism, Zen Buddhism, Confucianism, West-meets-East
    JEL: J61
    Date: 2016–08
  9. By: Dan Pirjol; Lingjiong Zhu
    Abstract: The discrete sum of geometric Brownian motions plays an important role in modeling stochastic annuities in insurance. It also plays a pivotal role in the pricing of Asian options in mathematical finance. In this paper, we study the probability distributions of the infinite sum of geometric Brownian motions, the sum of geometric Brownian motions with geometric stopping time, and the finite sum of the geometric Brownian motions. These results are extended to the discrete sum of the exponential L\'evy process. We derive tail asymptotics and compute numerically the asymptotic distribution function. We compare the results against the known results for the continuous time integral of the geometric Brownian motion up to an exponentially distributed time. The results are illustrated with numerical examples for life annuities with discrete payments, and Asian options.
    Date: 2016–09
  10. By: Blane Lewis
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of local elections on public service delivery in Indonesia, focusing particular attention on the interaction between directly elected executives and politically fragmented parliaments. The investigation considers two common measures of political fragmentation: the number of parliament seats and the number of political parties in parliament. The analysis finds that the impact of direct elections on service access is not conditional on parliament size but that it is significantly dependent on the number of political parties represented in parliament. When parliaments comprise a small number of political parties the impact of direct elections on service delivery is positive; as the number of parties grows election benefits decline; and when the proliferation of political parties becomes particularly pronounced the influence of direct elections on service outcomes turns negative. Evidence suggests that the adverse impact of direct elections at high levels of party proliferation may be due to increased difficulties in achieving government-wide consensus on planning and executing expenditure budgets and an associated decline in spending.
    Keywords: local government, elections, political fragmentation, public service delivery, regression discontinuity, Indonesia
    JEL: H72 H75 H76
    Date: 2016
  11. By: Chang Shu; Dong He; Jinyue Dong; Honglin Wang
    Abstract: This paper compares spillovers from the US and Chinese financial markets to the rest of Asia-Pacific. Structural VAR analysis points to the growing influence of Chinese equities and currency movements. In normal times China's influence in the equity market has risen to a level close to that of the United States, although the relative impact of the United States became stronger in crisis periods. Nonetheless, China's bond market remains a negligible player. The influence of China may be interpreted as a "regional pull" factor, while that of the United States remains a key "global push" factor.
    Keywords: China's impact, spillovers to Asian financial markets, US, structural VAR, sign restrictions
    Date: 2016–09
  12. By: Dan Pirjol; Lingjiong Zhu
    Abstract: We present a rigorous study of the short maturity asymptotics for Asian options with continuous-time averaging, under the assumption that the underlying asset follows a local volatility model. The asymptotics for out-of-the-money, in-the-money, and at-the-money cases are derived, considering both fixed strike and floating strike Asian options. The asymptotics for the out-of-the-money case involves a non-trivial variational problem which is solved completely. We present an analytical approximation for Asian options prices, and demonstrate good numerical agreement of the asymptotic results with the results of Monte Carlo simulations and benchmark test cases in the Black-Scholes model for option parameters relevant in practical applications.
    Date: 2016–09
  13. By: Quang Nguyen (Middlesex University [London] - Middlesex University); Marie Claire Villeval (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hui Xu (Beijing Normal University, GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Virtually every commercial transaction has within itself an element of trust, certainly any transaction conducted over a period of time. It can be plausibly argued that much of the economic backwardness in the world can be explained by the lack of mutual confidence. (Arrow 1972)
    Keywords: risk preferences, time preferences, Cumulative Prospect Theory, Vietnam, field experiment, trustworthiness,trust
    Date: 2016
  14. By: Kaliappa Kalirajan; Yichang Liu
    Abstract: Though the availability of cost effective and potentially efficient renewable energy technologies is a necessary condition for the promotion of green growth nationally and internationally, it is the intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) to make use of such technologies is crucial. International trade in low carbon renewable energy goods provides an effective way of achieving INDCs nationally, even when individual countries may not have sufficient infrastructure readily available to them to fulfill INDCs. It is in this context, examination of whether renewable energy goods exports have been flowing without constraints in the Asian region and whether the RCEP regional cooperation mooted by the ASEAN can potentially facilitate minimizing those constraints at the regional level. The short answers to those questions are no and yes respectively. The answer is no mainly due to the existing institutional rigidities of which the major one is the non-tariff measures. The answer is yes mainly due to the possibility of improving the technical cooperation in producing renewable energy goods and consultations in removing non-tariff barriers through the effective functioning of RCEP..
    Keywords: paddy/rice value chain, profit margins of paddy/tice, market structure, Sri Lanka
    JEL: F14 F18 Q27
    Date: 2016
  15. By: Vasco Diogo; Eric Koomen
    Abstract: This paper identifies opportunities to refine OECD’s indicators of land cover and land use and their regular production for all OECD and G20 countries. A comprehensive review is conducted of the available datasets at the global, regional and national levels, including data derived from remote sensing as well as those complemented with administrative and survey data. The datasets are assessed in terms of their geographic coverage, periodicity, spatial resolution, data reliability and comparability. The paper discusses the potential use of such datasets for the production of indicators that are harmonised across countries and over time. It is found that data on land cover are widely available and that many OECD countries have good-quality national land cover datasets, in some cases consistently over time. However, considerable differences have been found among the land cover products reviewed in terms of their geographic coverage, spatial, temporal and thematic resolution. For eight countries, no country- or region-specific data could be found (including Israel, Korea, Colombia, Costa Rica, India, Indonesia, the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia). On the other hand, data on land use seem to be much scarcer, available only for Australia, European countries, Japan and the United States. The paper concludes with a discussion of selection guidelines for, and examples of, potentially suitable datasets in terms of their geographic coverage and the temporal, spatial and thematic resolution. Ce rapport identifie les possibilités d’affiner les indicateurs de l’OCDE sur l’occupation et l’utilisation des terres, ainsi que leur production régulière pour tous les pays de l’OCDE et ceux du G20. Il propose un examen complet des ensembles de données disponibles au niveau mondial, régional et national, incluant les données de télédétection et les informations complétées par des données administratives et tirées d’enquêtes. Les sources de données sont évaluées par rapport à leur couverture géographique, périodicité, fiabilité et comparabilité de l’information. Le rapport étudie l’utilisation potentielle de ces ensembles de données pour produire des indicateurs harmonisés entre pays et dans le temps. On constate que les données sur la couverture du sol sont largement disponibles et que de nombreux pays de l’OCDE ont des données nationales de bonne qualité, parfois même consistantes dans le temps. Néanmoins, des différences importantes persistent parmi les produits de couverture du sol examinés, en particulier la couverture géographique, la résolution spatiale et thématique et la précision des données. Pour huit pays (Israël, la Corée, la Colombie, le Costa Rica, l’Inde, l’Indonésie, la Fédération de Russie et l’Arabie saoudite), aucune donnée nationale ou régionale n’a pu être trouvée. Les données sur l’utilisation des terres semblent en revanche bien plus rares et ne sont disponible que pour l’Australie, les pays européens, le Japon et les États-Unis. Ce rapport conclut avec une discussion sur les méthodes de sélection, ainsi que des exemples de sources de données potentiellement adéquates en termes de couverture géographique, de résolution temporelle, spatiale et thématique.
    Keywords: land use, remote sensing, land cover, satellite data, données satellitaires, utilisation des terres, télédétection, occupation des terres
    JEL: Q56 Q57 R11 R52
    Date: 2016–09–22
  16. By: Alibek Konkakov (Kazakhstan Industry Development Institute); Gulaikhan Kubayeva (Economic Research Institute Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: Economic diversification policy is often on the agenda in developing economies. Typically, this implies the development of the manufacturing industry. It is believed that a strong manufacturing sector reduces economic volatility and contributes to the formation of the middle class. The economic history of countries such as Singapore, South Korea, Japan, where the development of the manufacturing industry was the key to the "economic miracle", confirms this thesis.
    Date: 2016–08
  17. By: Andersen, Lykke E.
    Abstract: The scale of inequality around the world is almost unfathomable. The average inhabitant of Norway, Qatar and Switzerland earns more in one day than what the average inhabitant of Malawi and Burundi earns in an entire year1. If you get pregnant in Sierra Leone, you are 300 times more likely to die from pregnancy related causes than if you get pregnant in Sweden2. If you are born in Angola or the Central African Republic, you are 50 times more likely to die within your first year of life than if you are born in Singapore. Currently, about 60% of the variation in income across the globe is explained by country citizenship alone, while parental income class within the country where you were born explains another 20% (Milanovic, 2011). This means that at least 80% of the variation in income (and other income related factors) is already determined by birth, leaving less than 20% to be determined by a person's own effort, ingenuity, planning, determination, risk-taking and passion. Thus, the world is not just a place of huge inequality of outcomes, but also of huge inequality of opportunity. Inequality is becoming an increasingly concerning issue and recently 176 countries agreed that one of the Sustainable Development Goals for the next 15 years should be to "reduce inequality within and among countries." One of the specific targets associated with this goal is to "facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through the implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies."
    Date: 2016
  18. By: Naima Ismail H. Aldaikey (Institute of Malaysian and International Studies Ikmas, National University of Malaysia, UKM); Abdul Rahim Ahmad (Centre of General Studies, National University of Malaysia); Mohamad Sabri Bin Haron (Centre of General Studies, National University of Malaysia)
    Abstract: Islamic banks and Islamic financial institutes was established to develop the Islamic economic, where one of its main tools from the financial and monetary perspective, but under a provisional system to ensure the legitimacy and correct path as well as the right goals and tools. According to that, a Legitimate (Sharia) Council do these active functions to achieve the obligation of bank and the establishment in the provisions and legal principles. The legitimate Oversight Council protects the banking functions through its system which includes Sharia rules that regulate the various banking activities with accordance of Islamic law and prohibiting banking activities which found opposing the provision of Sharia and Islamic law. It is recommended that to ensure full compliance with the provision of Islamic law and Sharia in financial activities, the Legitimate Oversight Council should exist in any Islamic bank to ensure the compliance of Islamic banking products and activities, and provide full integrity of financial transactions in terms of their Islamic character.
    Keywords: Oversight Council, Sharia Council in Islamic Banks
    Date: 2016
  19. By: David Haugh; Alexandre Kopoin; Elena Rusticelli; David Turner; Richard Dutu
    Abstract: World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently. There are both structural and cyclical reasons for the slowdown. A deceleration in the rate of trade liberalisation post 2000 was initially obscured by the ongoing expansion of global value chains and associated rapid emergence of China in the world economy. Post the financial crisis global value chains started to unwind and, possibly associated with this, Chinese and Asian trade weakened markedly. These structural changes were compounded by insipid demand due to anaemic growth of global investment, as well as intra-euro area trade, both of which are trade intensive. The slowdown in world trade growth post crisis, if sustained, will have serious consequences for the medium-term growth of productivity and living standards. Trade policy has significant potential to reinvigorate trade growth but the political environment for reforms is difficult, with a growing polarisation of OECD electorates into pro- and anti- globalisation supporters. Further trade and investment policy liberalisation should be introduced as part of a wider package of structural reforms to spread the benefits of freer trade and investment more widely. Arrêt cardiaque ou crise passagère : Pourquoi le commerce mondial est-il si faible et que peut faire la politique économique pour le relancer ? Le commerce mondial a cru rapidement au court des deux décennies qui ont précédé la crise financière de 2008. Mais sa croissance a été divisée par deux depuis. Des facteurs à la fois structurels et conjoncturels expliquent ce changement. Le ralentissement de la libéralisation du commerce mondial après 2000 a été masqué par l’expansion des chaines de valeur mondiale et l’insertion rapide de la Chine dans le commerce international. Après la crise, les chaines de valeur mondiale se sont détendues et le commerce Chinois et asiatique a ralenti, les deux phénomènes étant peut-être liés. Ces changements structurels ont été aggravés par une faible demande due à une croissance anémique de l’investissement international et du commerce intra-européen, les deux étant une source importante d’échanges commerciaux. S’il perdure, ce ralentissement de la croissance du commerce mondial aura des conséquences fâcheuses pour la croissance de la productivité et du niveau de vie. La politique commerciale dispose d’un potentiel pour relancer cette croissance, mais l’environnement politique actuel est peu favorable du fait d’une polarisation croissance au sein de l’électorat des pays de l’OCDE entre partisans de la globalisation et ceux plus sceptiques sur ses bienfaits. Une politique plus volontariste en matière de libéralisation des échanges et de l’investissement devrait être mise en place dans le cadre d’un plan global de reformes structurelles.
    Keywords: trade policy, global value chains, world trade, Slowdown, GVCs, Ralentissement, politique commerciale, chaînes de valeur mondiales, Commerce mondial
    JEL: F01 F02 F13 F14 F15 F17 F21 F62
    Date: 2016–09–23

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