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on South East Asia |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses selected issues related to the economy of Thailand. The economy of Thailand is largely dependent on China. A 1 percent decline in China’s GDP lowers Thailand’s output by about 0.2 percent. Population aging is another major issue in Thailand. This Association of Southeast Asian Nations country will face the dual challenge of increasing the coverage of the social security system and ensuring its long-term sustainability. Thailand’s financial sector has expanded rapidly over the last decade, and important changes in its structure have taken place. While corporate debt has remained broadly stable, household debt has increased to one of the highest levels among emerging markets, raising concerns about household debt overhang. |
| Keywords: | Spillovers;China;Imports;Commodity price fluctuations;Demand;Financial stability;Financial soundness indicators;Health care;Pensions;Aging;Selected Issues Papers;Thailand;market, price, value, volatility, market volatility |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/140&r=sea |
| By: | Allan Dizioli; Jaime Guajardo; Vladimir Klyuev; Rui Mano; Mehdi Raissi |
| Abstract: | After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth;China;Indonesia;Malaysia;Philippines;Singapore;Thailand;Association of Southeast Asian Nations;Spillovers;Regional trade;China’s slowdown and rebalancing, international business cycle, spillovers, Global VAR, Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), ASEAN-5. |
| Date: | 2016–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/170&r=sea |
| By: | Vladimir Klyuev; To-Nhu Dao |
| Abstract: | This paper examines exchange rate behavior in the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand). It finds that for the last 10 years there is no evidence that their central banks target particular exchange rate levels against any currency or basket. Thus, contrary to some assertions, they do not belong to a U.S. dollar club, a Japanese yen club, a Chinese renminbi club, or an ASEAN club. At the same time, they clearly try to smooth short-term volatility, particularly vis-Ã -vis the U.S. dollar. The degree of smoothing declined noticeably after the Asian Financial Crisis and less obviously after the Global Financial Crisis, with heterogeneity across countries. Short-term smoothing without level targeting does not interfere with monetary policies aimed at price stability. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate policy;Indonesia;Malaysia;Philippines;Singapore;Thailand;Association of Southeast Asian Nations;Exchange rates;Monetary policy;Cross country analysis;Exchange rate regimes; exchange rate volatility; fear of floating; currency blocks; ASEAN |
| Date: | 2016–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/165&r=sea |
| By: | Lekha Chakraborty |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews gender budgeting efforts in Asia. The countries in the region have achieved mixed success in improving gender equality. Gender budgeting is ideally a fiscal innovation that translates gender-related goals into budgetary commitments and can help countries to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals with regard to gender equality. India has a sustainable gender budgeting model for the region, while a few countries in the region have begun such efforts more recently. The legislative mandates for gender budgeting in the Philippines and South Korea are remarkable achievements and are contributing to their efforts. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy;Australia;India;Philippines;Korea, Republic of;Asia;Gender;Budgeting;Women's social conditions;Women's economic conditions;Cross country analysis;Gender budgeting, fiscal policies and administration, Asia, gender inequality |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/150&r=sea |
| By: | Markus Brueckner; Kien Trung Nguyen |
| Abstract: | The Vietnamese economy is characterized by a high degree of international trade openness and a relatively low GDP share of net-exports. This paper examines the effect of growth in the terms of trade, and more specifically, in international commodity prices, on Vietnam's GDP per capita growth. The paper finds that, during 2000-2014, growth in the terms of trade contributed positively to Vietnam’s GDP per capita growth but the effect is not large: less than one-tenth of Vietnam’s GDP per capita growth was due to growth in its terms of trade. The paper argues that the relatively small effect of growth in the terms of trade on GDP per capita growth is due to a low GDP share of net-exports. Econometric model estimates show that transitional convergence accounted for about half of Vietnam's GDP per capita growth during 2000-2014. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2016-643&r=sea |
| By: | Markus Brueckner; Kien Trung Nguyen |
| Abstract: | The Vietnamese economy is characterized by a high degree of international trade openness and a relatively low GDP share of net-exports. This paper examines the effect of growth in the terms of trade, and more specifically, in international commodity prices, on Vietnam's GDP per capita growth. The paper finds that, during 2000-2014, growth in the terms of trade contributed positively to Vietnam's GDP per capita growth but the effect is not large: less than one-tenth of Vietnam’s GDP per capita growth was due to growth in its terms of trade. The paper argues that the relatively small effect of growth in the terms of trade on GDP per capita growth is due to a low GDP share of net-exports. Econometric model estimates show that transitional convergence accounted for about half of Vietnam's GDP per capita growth during 2000-2014. |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-54&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | Singapore: Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy;China;United States;Economic growth;Demand;External shocks;Monetary transmission mechanism;Spillovers;Economic models;Selected Issues Papers;Singapore; |
| Date: | 2016–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/264&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses recent developments, outlook and risk, and policies required for a long-lasting recovery of Thailand’s economy. Thailand remains resilient in the face of external and internal challenges. However, political uncertainty and structural bottlenecks cloud long-term prospects. The economy recovered in 2015 after a slowdown induced by political uncertainty. Public investment supported economic activity, particularly through community-based infrastructure projects. Monetary policy was eased in the face of below-target inflation. The credit cycle moderated, but household debt reached a historic high. Implementing high-quality fiscal stimulus, easing monetary policy, and safeguarding financial sector stability can strengthen long-term sustainability, equity, and efficiency of Thailand’s economy. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Infrastructure;Public investment;Monetary policy;Macroprudential Policy;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Thailand;inflation, debt, investment, monetary fund, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/139&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | Singapore’s economy continues to perform well, although growth has slowed reflecting a combination of structural and cyclical factors: population aging, restrictions on foreign worker inflows, and slow productivity growth, and a difficult external environment, including the trade growth deceleration and the negative impact on domestic manufacturing of lower oil prices. Disinflation in domestic goods and asset markets and deleveraging continue. Risks to the outlook are skewed to the downside, including from slow global and regional growth and spillovers from renewed global financial volatility. Domestic risks are rooted in still elevated household and corporate leverage and slower-than-expected gains in productivity during the transition to an innovation-based, labor-lean growth model. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;China;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Social safety nets;Infrastructure;Labor markets;Monetary policy;Financial sector;Macroprudential Policy;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;External Sector Report;Staff Reports;Press releases;Singapore; |
| Date: | 2016–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/263&r=sea |
| By: | Saima Liaqat (Visiting PhD Scholar at University of Queensland, Australia /PhD scholar at University of the Punjab Lahore, Pakistan); Temesgen Kifle (School of Economics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Australia); Mohammad Alauddin (School of Economics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Australia) |
| Abstract: | This study empirically investigates aid effectiveness debate in light of Burnside and Dollar (2000) hypothesis that policy environment the recipient country is critically important for aid effectiveness.The data on ten developing countries of South and Southeast Asian region over a period of 1984-2015 form the empirical basis of this investigation. In line with Burnside and Dollar (2000) a policy index is constructed which includes inflation, budget deficit/surplus and openness. Two stage least squares (2SLS) and Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) techniques were employed to test the model. Two major findings resulted from this study. First, aid had a negative impact on economic growth during the study period for the Asian region. Second, there was no evidence to suggest that aid policy interaction had any impact on economic growth implying that the good policy environment is not a condition for economic growth in context of aid effectiveness. This in effect refutes the Burnside - Dollar aid effectiveness hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | foreign aid, macroeconomic policy, economic growth, Asia |
| JEL: | F35 O19 O38 P45 O11 O53 |
| Date: | 2016–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:565&r=sea |
| By: | Gee Hee Hong; Jaewoo Lee; Wei Liao; Dulani Seneviratne |
| Abstract: | Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others. |
| Keywords: | International trade;China;Asia;Imports;Goods;Demand;Consumption;External shocks;Spillovers;Trade integration;trade linkages, trade elasticities, spillovers Author’s E-Mail Address: ghong@imf.org, jlee3@imf.org, wliao@imf.org, dseneviratne@imf.org |
| Date: | 2016–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/105&r=sea |
| By: | Thu Trang Vuong; Ha Nguyen; Quan-Hoang Vuong |
| Abstract: | In this research, we use a survey dataset from 900 Vietnamese patients, of which 605 have health insurance, to establish empirical relations between medical expenditures, actual insurance coverage rate, residency status, socioeconomic status of patients and their perceived dis/satisfaction toward the health insurance services/values. The results show that actual insurance coverage and medical expenditures contribute to higher probabilities of satisfaction, but with coverage rate having much higher influence. In addition, threshold insurance coverage and expenditures are estimated, showing that perceptions are immensely heterogeneous regarding values of benefits, following which the poor and non-resident patients being those most efficient for the healthcare system to target and demonstrate positive policy changes. This group's threshold coverage is only 63.4%, a little above the current mean 58%. Finally, as the universal insurance and full coverage is impossible, Vietnamese health insurance policy should switch to support the most vulnerable, with more flexible health insurance and financing options as the current system has proved too rigid to be of value to the poor. |
| Keywords: | health insurance; threshold; medical expenditures; healthcare policy; Vietnam |
| JEL: | I18 I10 |
| Date: | 2016–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/235516&r=sea |
| By: | Phu Nguyen-Van; Cyrielle Poiraud; Nguyen To-The |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes households’ choice on tea varieties in Vietnam by using a multinomial logit model. The modelling takes into account the issue of unobserved individual heterogeneity and the endogeneity of some explanatory variables (use of chemical and organic fertilizers). The results show that important factors influencing the decision to adopt one type of tea varieties include income, age, household size, farming contract, and use of organic fertilizers, but also membership of professional associations such as the Tea Association and the Farmers Union. |
| Keywords: | Multinomial logit; Unobserved heterogeneity; Tea varieties; Vietnam. |
| JEL: | C25 C12 G12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2016-40&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Vietnam’s economy has experienced solid growth with low inflation, reflecting policy attention to maintaining macroeconomic stability. Economic performance was robust through most of 2015, driven by rapid export growth, foreign direct investment, and strong domestic demand. Manufacturing and exports moderated near year-end, reflecting slowing external demand. Inflation declined below 1 percent in 2015 before ticking upward in early 2016 owing to higher food and administered prices. For 2016, growth is projected to moderate to about 6 percent, reflecting the adverse agriculture shock, lower external demand, and spillovers of tighter global financial conditions. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Public enterprises;Monetary policy;Bank restructuring;Macroprudential Policy;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Vietnam; |
| Date: | 2016–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/240&r=sea |
| By: | Samuel Bazzi (Boston University and The Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD)); Matthew Gudgeon (Boston University) |
| Abstract: | The creation of new local governments is a pervasive feature of decentralization in developing countries. This redistricting process often causes substantial changes in two widely debated sources of conflict: diversity and contestable public resources. Using new geospatial data on violence and the plausibly exogenous timing of district creation in Indonesia, we show that allowing for redistricting along group lines can reduce conflict. However, these reductions are undone and even reversed if the newly defined electorates are ethnically polarized, particularly in areas that receive an entirely new seat of government. We highlight changes in the salience of ethnic cleavages as a key mechanism driving the violent contestation of political control. Overall, the findings illustrate the policy tradeoffs associated with redistricting and offer novel insight into the instrumental role of ethnicity in shaping conflict. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia, Violence, Political Development, Demographic/Socioeconomic |
| JEL: | D72 D74 H41 H77 O13 Q34 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:esocpu:5&r=sea |
| By: | Majah-Leah Ravago (Assistant Professor at the University of the Philippines and Program Director of the Energy Policy and Development Program (EPDP) of the Philippines); James Roumasset (Emeritus Professor of Economics (pending) at the University of Hawaii, Manoa) |
| Abstract: | Electricity policy in many countries is charged with multiple objectives including affordability, sustainability, inclusivity, and renewability. Unless these objectives can be reconciled, the pursuit of one will detract from the pursuit of another. We provide a framework for culling some objectives and reconciling other by extending the traditional view of efficiency. Philippine power policies are characterized and evaluated with respect to conflicting objectives and the problem of incomplete deregulation. We also make preliminary suggestions regarding investment planning for generation and transmission, including the suitability of short-cut metrics such as levelized and avoided costs and the prospects for increased competitiveness.Creation-Date: 2016-08 |
| Keywords: | Electricity, renewable energy, excess burden, deregulation, competition, Philippines |
| JEL: | Q4 Q48 Q41 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:201613&r=sea |
| By: | Kazunobu Hayakawa (Inter-disciplinary Studies Center, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan); Nuttawut Laksanapanyakul (Science and Technology Development Program, Thailand Development Research Institute, Thailand); Hiroshi Mukunoki (Faculty of Economics, Gakushuin University, Japan); Shujiro Urata (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of free trade agreement (FTA) utilisation on import prices. For this analysis, we employ establishment-level import data with information on tariff schemes, that is, the FTA and most-favoured-nation schemes used for importing. Unlike previous studies in this literature, we estimate the effects of FTA utilisation on prices by controlling for the differences in importing firms' characteristics. Our main findings are as follows. First, the effect of FTA use is overestimated when not controlling for the importing firm-related fixed effects. Second, the average effect of the tariff reduction induced by FTA utilisation is a 3.6-6.7 percent rise in import prices. Third, in general, we do not find a price rise resulting from the costs of compliance with the rules of origin. Fourth, we also find several other factors that affect import prices in the case of FTA utilisation. |
| Keywords: | FTA, Prices, Thailand |
| JEL: | F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2016-24&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | After decades of impressive economic progress, Korea’s growth has slowed, and the economy is facing a number of structural headwinds, including: unfavorable demographics; heavy export reliance; pockets of corporate vulnerabilities; labor-market distortions; lagging productivity; a limited social safety net; and high household debt. Inequality and poverty are also of concern. On the positive side, Korea has considerable fiscal space to manage these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic conditions;Fiscal policy;Corporate sector;Debt restructuring;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;International trade;External Sector Report;Staff Reports;Press releases;Korea, Republic of; |
| Date: | 2016–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/278&r=sea |
| By: | Serkan Arslanalp; Wei Liao; Shi Piao; Dulani Seneviratne |
| Abstract: | This paper finds that financial spillovers from China to regional markets are on the rise. The main transmission channel appears to be trade linkages, although direct financial linkages are playing an increasing role. Without an impact on global risk premiums, China’s influence on regional markets is not yet to the level of the United States, but comparable to that of Japan. If China-related shocks are coupled with a rise in global risk premiums, as in August 2015 and January 2016, spillovers to the region could be significantly larger. Over the medium term, China’s financial spillovers could rise further with tighter financial linkages with the region, including through the ongoing internationalization of the renminbi and China’s capital account liberalization. |
| Keywords: | Financial markets;China;Asia;Regional shocks;Spillovers;Risk premium;Trade integration;Regional integration;China, Spillovers, Equity markets, Foreign Exchange Markets |
| Date: | 2016–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/173&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | The People's Republic of China: Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Transition economies;Economic growth;Monetary policy;Corporate sector;Credit expansion;Debt;Public enterprises;Fiscal reforms;Capital flows;Financial sector;Spillovers;Climate policy;Selected Issues Papers;China, People's Republic of; |
| Date: | 2016–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/271&r=sea |
| By: | Singh, Charan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Wasdani, Kishinchand Poornima (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Finance for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) has been a concern for all stakeholders including entrepreneurs, financial institutions, and government organizations. The key objective of the study was to identify various challenges faced by MSMEs in sourcing of finance during different stages of their life cycle. This study is a first-of-its-kind attempt to focus on these aspects. The study further explores whether the financial awareness of MSME entrepreneurs is a major limitation in the identification and utilization of sources of finance. Data was collected through personal interviews using a structured questionnaire from a sample of 85 MSMEs. The survey was conducted mainly in the city of Bangalore covering a wide spectrum of sectors like precision tools, weavers, jewelers, food retailers, metal works, textiles, and book shops. The results reinforce the findings of other studies that utilization of formal sources like banks is significantly small compared with informal sources like personal and family wealth. The study found that the main challenges faced in underutilization of formal sources were inadequacy of collateral assets and lack of financial awareness of entrepreneurs. Based on the conclusion that requirement of finance differs with the life-cycle stage of the MSME, recommendations have been proposed for entrepreneurs, financial institutions, and policy makers. |
| Keywords: | India; SME; small and medium-sized enterprises; microenterprises; finance; loans; capital; start-up; economic growth; firms; banks; financial institutions; financial awareness; sources of finance |
| JEL: | G20 L26 O23 |
| Date: | 2016–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0581&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | Asean-5 Cluster Report-Evolution of Monetary Policy Frameworks |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy;Association of Southeast Asian Nations;Central banks;Business cycles;Capital outflows;Cross country analysis;Indonesia;Singapore;Malaysia;Thailand;Philippines; |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/176&r=sea |
| By: | Emre Alper; R. Armando Morales; Fan Yang |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the degree to which volatility in interbank interest rates leads to volatility in financial instruments with longer maturities (e.g., T-bills) in Kenya since 2012, year in which the monetary policy framework switched to a forward-looking approach, relative to seven other inflation targeting (IT) countries (Ghana, Hungary, Poland, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand, and Uganda). Kenya shows strong volatility transmission and high persistence similar to other countries in transition to a more forward-looking monetary policy framework. These results emphasize the importance of a strong commitment to an interbank rate as an operational target and suggest that the central bank could reduce uncertainty in short-term yields significantly by smoothing out the overnight interest rates around the policy rate. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy;Kenya;Inflation targeting;Interest rates;Treasury bills and bonds;Econometric models;Monetary policy implementation, inflation targeting, volatility transmission |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/120&r=sea |