nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2016‒08‒14
seven papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Examining The Impact of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement on Indonesian Manufacturing Employment By Koon Peng Ooi
  2. The Indonesian Response to the Financial and Economic Crisis: Is the Developmental State Back? By Degol Hailu
  3. Bride Price and Female Education By Nava Ashraf; Natalie Bau; Nathan Nunn; Alessandra Voena
  4. The Impact of Pre-marital Sex Ratios on Household Saving in Two Asian Countries: The Competitive Saving Motive Revisited By Charles Yuji Horioka; Akiko Terada-Hagiwara
  5. Direct and indirect effects based on difference-in-differences with an application to political preferences following the Vietnam draft lottery By Deuchert, Eva; Huber, Martin; Schelker, Mark
  6. Export Crops and Civil Conflict By Benjamin Crost; Joseph Felter
  7. ATTRIBUTES AFFECTING CONSUMERS' PURCHASING DECISION ON PORK SCRATCHING By Thanut Thumrongpirun; Apichart Daloonpate; Visit Limsombunchai Author-Email : -

  1. By: Koon Peng Ooi
    Abstract: There are very few studies that explicitly examine the costs and benefits of participating in regional trade agreements (henceforth RTAs), especially for developing countries. This is an important research question given that many developing countries are currently involved in negotiating RTAs, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Regional Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and the Pacific Alliance. This paper attempts to address this gap in the trade literature by analyzing the impact of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) on Indonesian manufacturing employment. It finds that even though the increase in the preference margin for China decreases employment by 2.60% (80,000 jobs lost), the reciprocal increase in the preference margin for Indonesia increases employment by 0.81% (25,000 jobs created) in export-oriented industries. These results highlight that the trade-off in an RTA is not merely between improving long-run productivity and increasing short-run unemployment in import-competing industries, as conventional trade literature may suggest. Within employment, there is a further trade-off between the contraction of import-competing industries and the expansion of export-oriented industries. Further, plant-level analysis reveals that these employment changes are attributed equally to job creation and job destruction. In addition, there is no evidence that the ACFTA increased the rate of job reallocation. Finally, this paper also shows that the impact of trade liberalization differs according to plant and worker characteristics. In Indonesia, large domestic plants are more severely affected by import competition than small plants or foreign plants. However, they are also the only ones that leveraged on the reduction in trading partner’s tariff rates and expand. In terms of workers, I find that employment changes are more volatile for production workers than non-production workers.
    Keywords: Trade Policy; Economic Integration; Trade and Labour Market Interactions
    JEL: F15 F16 J21
    Date: 2016
  2. By: Degol Hailu (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: "The current economic slowdown is jeopardising efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Poverty is worsening and jobs have been lost. The Asian Development Bank estimates that by 2010, about 100 million people in Asia will fall into poverty." (...)
    Keywords: Indonesian, Response, Financial, Economic, Crisis, Developmental, State Back
    Date: 2016–07
  3. By: Nava Ashraf; Natalie Bau; Nathan Nunn; Alessandra Voena
    Abstract: Traditional cultural practices can play an important role in development, but can also inspire condemnation. The custom of bride price, prevalent throughout sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia as a payment by the groom to the family of the bride, is one example. In this paper, we show a perhaps surprising economic consequence of this practice. We revisit one of the best-studied historical development projects, the INPRES school construction program in Indonesia, and show that previously found small effects on female enrollment mask heterogeneity by bride price tradition. Ethnic groups that traditionally engage in bride price payments at marriage increased female enrollment in response to the program. Within these ethnic groups, higher female education at marriage is associated with a higher bride price payment received, providing a greater incentive for parents to invest in girls' education and take advantage of the increased supply of schools. However, we see no increase in education following school construction for girls from ethnicities without a bride price tradition. We replicate these findings in Zambia, where we exploit a similar school expansion program that took place in the early 2000s. While there may be significant downsides to a bride price tradition, our results suggest that any change to this cultural custom should likely be considered alongside additional policies to promote female education.
    JEL: I21 I25 O53 O55 Z1 Z13
    Date: 2016–07
  4. By: Charles Yuji Horioka; Akiko Terada-Hagiwara
    Abstract: This paper estimates a household saving rate equation for India and Korea using long-term time series data for the 1975-2010 period, focusing in particular on the impact of the pre-marital sex ratio on the household saving rate. To summarize the main findings of the paper, it finds that the pre-marital sex (or gender) ratio (the ratio of males to females) has a significant impact on the household saving rate in both India and Korea, even after controlling for the usual suspects such as the aged and youth dependency ratios and income. It has a negative impact in India, where the bride’s side has to pay substantial dowries to the groom’s side at marriage, but a positive impact in Korea, where, as in China, the groom’s side has to bear a disproportionate share of marriage-related expenses including purchasing a house or condominium for the newlywed couple.
    JEL: D12 D14 D91 E21 J11 J12 O16
    Date: 2016–07
  5. By: Deuchert, Eva; Huber, Martin; Schelker, Mark
    Abstract: This study empirically evaluates the impact of the war in eastern Ukraine on the political attitudes aThis paper proposes a difference-in-differences approach for disentangling a total treatment effect on some outcome into a direct impact as well as an indirect effect operating through a binary intermediate variable – or mediator – within strata defined upon how the mediator reacts to the treatment. We show under which assumptions the direct effects on the always and never takers, whose mediator is not affected by the treatment, as well as the direct and indirect effects on the compliers, whose mediator reacts to the treatment, are identified. We provide an empirical application based on the Vietnam draft lottery. The results suggest that a high draft risk due to the lottery leads to a relative increase in the support for the Republican Party and that this increase is mostly driven by those complying with the lottery outcome.
    Keywords: treatment effects; causal mechanisms; direct and indirect effects; Vietnam War lottery; political preferences; difference-indifferences
    JEL: C21 C22 D70 D72
    Date: 2016–08–04
  6. By: Benjamin Crost (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Joseph Felter (Stanford University)
    Abstract: Many governments and international experts consider a move towards high-value export crops, such as fruits and vegetables, as an important opportunity for economic growth and poverty reduction. Little is known, however, about the effects of export crops in fragile and conflict affected countries. We exploit movements in world market prices combined with geographic variation in crop intensity to provide evidence that increases in the value of a major export crop exacerbate conflict violence in the Philippines. We further show that this effect is concentrated in areas with low baseline insurgent control. In areas with high insurgent control, a rise in crop value leads to a decrease in violence but a further expansion of rebel-controlled territory. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that insurgents gain strength from extorting agricultural exporters and that insurgent strength has a non-monotonic effect on conflict violence because strong insurgent groups can establish local monopolies of violence.
    Keywords: Export Crops, Civil Conflict, Insurgent Control, Bananas
    JEL: O13 H56 D74
    Date: 2016–08
  7. By: Thanut Thumrongpirun; Apichart Daloonpate; Visit Limsombunchai Author-Email : - (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics,Faculty of Economics,Kasetsart University,Thailand)
    Abstract: At present, pork rind is popular in the consumer industry. It is more competitive. This gives operators a lot Improves Product Development and pork rind. Without knowing exactly what features of products that affect the purchasing decisions of consumers. It is impossible to meet the preferences of consumers appropriately. This paper aimed to analyze attributes that affected consumers’ purchasing decision on pork scratching products, using conjoint analysis technique. Four hundred consumers in Bangkok were interviewed using questionnaire. Moreover, the cluster analysis technique was applied to segment consumers into groups that had satisfaction on similar attributes in order to formulate marketing strategies. The analytical results found that the consumers gave the most importance on the vacuum packaging. The important attributes of pork scratching products next below the top were price, labels, and spiral form. The cluster analysis showed that the consumers could be divided into 3 groups based on their similar preferences on attributes. The first group of consumers was mainly women with low income that gave importance on THB 50 per 100 grams prices. The second group of consumers was mainly men with high income who preferred the spiral shape of pork scratching. Finally, the third group of consumers was mainly women with high income that favored the zip lock packaging. This study results were beneficial to pork scratching seller to develop their marketing strategies.
    Keywords: Pork Scratching Product, Consumer Behavior, Cluster Analysis Technique, Conjoint Analysis Technique
    JEL: Q10 Q13
    Date: 2016–07

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