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on South East Asia |
| By: | Daniela Marconi (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | The economic and political influence of China in the Asia-Pacific region is growing and the internationalization of the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), is adding an additional channel of influence. This paper assesses the evolution of exchange rate co-movements against the US dollar within the region and finds that the RMB is exerting a growing influence. The degree of influence varies considerably across currencies. On the one hand, the Indonesian rupiah, the Korean won, the Malaysian ringgit, the Singaporean dollar, and the Taiwanese dollar show very strong co-movements with the RMB, while on the other hand, the Australian and the New Zealand dollars are not affected. Furthermore, the study confirms that Asian currencies move as if driven by the aim of stabilizing the effective exchange rate, thereby avoiding excessive appreciation against the USD. |
| Keywords: | exchange rates, Asia-Pacific, renminbi, China |
| JEL: | F31 F33 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_341_16&r=sea |
| By: | 奥田, 英信; 姚, 一鳴; 外山, 雄介 |
| Abstract: | 市場経済制度と複数政党制を持つ東南アジア諸国の中で、カンボジアとフィリピンは、MFIsが発達した国である。しかし、カンボジアとフィリピンの経営環境はかなりの違いがみられる。雨森（2010）によれば、カンボジアのMFIsは全体の傾向として持続的経営をより重視する経営特性を強めており、商業銀行に成長するMFIもある。一方、フィリピンでは非営利のマイクロ金融機関の役割が大きくMFIsの経営目的は収益性よりも貧困削減を重視する傾向があると指摘されている。本稿では、MIX（Microfinance Information Exchange）データベースから抽出した2014年のサンプルを利用して、Gutierrez-Nieto (2007)の分析方法に従って、カンボジアとフィリピンのMFIsの経営特性と経営効率性を比較検討した。本稿の分析結果は、先行研究による湯川（2009）と異なった。湯川（2009）は、経営形態の違いに関してNGOのMFIsとその他のMFIsとの間で効率性の違いが見いだせず、また両国のMFIsの間でも効率性に明瞭な違いが見られないと結論付けた。これに対して、本稿の分析結果は、カンボジアとフィリピンの間で以下のような違いが観察された。 本稿の分析結果は、カンボジアとフィリピンの間に次のような違いが見つかった。即ち、 第１にカンボジアのMFIsはSustainability傾向が強いのに対して、フィリピンのMFIsはOutreach傾向が強かった。第２にカンボジアでは規模が大きいMFIsは規模の小さい機関よりも総合効率性が高い傾向があるが、フィリピンではむしろその逆の傾向が見られた。第３にカンボジアではMFIsは人件費をそれ以外の費用より集約的に投入する経営しているが、フィリピンでは逆に人件費以外の非費用を人件費よりも集約的に投入する経営を行っていた。これらの結果は、雨森の指摘と整合的であった。, Among the Southeast Asian countries with a market economy and the multi-party political system, Cambodia and the Philippines have numerous well-developed microfinance institutions (MFIs). However, the business environments surrounding the MFIs differ considerably between these two countries. According to Amenomori (2010), Cambodian MFIs tend to have management characteristics emphasizing sustainable business operations, and several MFIs have grown and converted to commercial banks. On the other hand, the management objective of Philippine MFIs tends to focus on poverty reduction, and non-profit MFIs play a significant role in the Philippines.By applying the analytical methodology adopted in Gutierrez-Nieto (2007) and Yuzawa (2009) to the samples extracted from the MIX (Microfinance Information Exchange) database on MFIs in 2014, this study investigated the management characteristics and management efficiency of Cambodian and Philippine MFIs. Different from Yuzawa (2009) refuting the clear difference in management characteristics and efficiency between Cambodian and Philippine MFIs, this study found several differences between the two. First, Cambodian MFIs tended to target sustainability (profitability) oriented management, and Philippine MFIs tended to target outreach (financial service to the poor) oriented management. Secondly, the large sized MIFs tended to have higher overall efficiency than the small and medium sized MFIs in Cambodia, but this tendency was reversed in the Philippines. Thirdly, Cambodian MFIs used personnel expenses more intensively than other non-personnel expenses, but the tendency was reversed in the Philippines. These findings are consistent with the assertion claimed by Amenomori (2010). |
| Keywords: | Cambodia, the Philippines, Microfinance Institutions, DEA, Principle Component Analysis |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:econdp:2016-06&r=sea |
| By: | Rhea Molato |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the e¤ect of secessionist conflict in the Philippines on the country's economic output. It uses the synthetic control method (SCM) to generate the counterfactual path of per capita real GDP that the Philippines could have achieved in the absence of secessionist conflict. The effect is measured as the di¤erence between actual and synthetic levels of economic output. This paper finds a negative and growing effect of the conflict on the Philippine economy as the conflict persists through time. These estimates are validated by the standard method of inference for studies using the SCM. |
| Keywords: | secession, conflict, economic development |
| JEL: | H77 N40 O10 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpi:wpaper:tax-mpg-rps-2015-05&r=sea |
| By: | Kurmas Akdogan; Neslihan Kaya Eksi; Ozan Eksi |
| Abstract: | We disentangle the cross-border capital flows into demand-pull and supply-push components for four selected emerging markets : Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia and Turkey. We employ vector autoregressions with sign restrictions method, using two variables: noncore liabilities of banks and the money market rates. Demand shocks are defined as those that move these two variables in the same direction and supply shocks as those that move them in opposite directions. Our results imply that, in the wake of the global financial crisis, worsening demand conditions in the recipient countries and the high levels of uncertainty were the main determinants of the decline in cross border flows. However, once the unconventional policy measures by the advanced economies were put into effect, the proliferation of global liquidity worked as a push factor for cross border flows. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, Capital flows, Non-core liabilities, Sign restrictions |
| JEL: | C32 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1615&r=sea |
| By: | Rosete, Alfredo (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst) |
| Abstract: | Of late, incorporating smallholder land, through partnerships with agribusiness firms that cultivate export crops has received some attention among scholars, policymakers and non-government organizations (NGOs). Some see such partnerships as a means of raising smallholder incomes, and achieving rural development. However, several case studies have shown that such partnerships can result in low incomes, and effective dispossession of smallholders. This essay examines how this dynamic occurs by comparing the experiences of smallholders in the Davao Region of the Philippines. I argue that despite the smallholders observable and enforceable property rights, the costs and risks of cultivation, coupled with an unfavorable political environment generate conditions under which smallholders cede control over their holdings in a partnership. This results in both lower incomes, and exclusion from the use of their land. |
| Keywords: | Rural Development, Land Conflict, Agribusiness, Agrarian Reform |
| JEL: | F63 N55 N75 O13 O19 O53 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2016-09&r=sea |
| By: | Rhea Molato |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the wage di¤erential between public sector employees and their private sector counterparts in a developing country, the Philippines. It finds that public sector workers in this country are receiving an hourly wage premium over private sector employees of similar background. This wage premium is associated with a higher degree of pro-social behaviour among government workers relative to private sector workers. However, government employees are found to be working fewer hours than their counterparts in the private sector. College graduates are more likely to work in the government than non-college graduates but among college graduates, those with more specialized skills tend to be employed in the private sector rather than the public sector. |
| JEL: | C93 D03 H26 H41 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpi:wpaper:tax-mpg-rps-2015-06&r=sea |
| By: | Clara Delavallade (IFPRI); David de la Croix (Université catholique Louvain) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which religions' pronatalism is detrimental to growth via the fertility/education channel. Using censuses from South-East Asia, we first estimate an empirical model of fertility and show that having a religious affiliation significantly raises fertility, especially for couples with intermediate to high education levels. We next use these estimates to identify the parameters of a structural model of fertility choice. On average, catholicism is the most pro-child religion (increasing total spending on children), followed by Buddhism, while Islam has a strong pro-birth component (redirecting spending from quality to quantity). We show that pro-child religions depress growth in the early stages of growth by lowering savings, physical capital, and labor supply. These effects account for 10\% to 30\% of the actual growth gaps between countries over 1950-1980. At later stages of growth, pro-birth religions lower human capital accumulation, explaining between 10\% to 20\% of the growth gap between Muslim and Buddhist countries over 1980-2010. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:45&r=sea |
| By: | Jiranyakul, Komain |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Thailand using quarterly data during 1995 and 2014. The results from the analysis show that the relationship between tourism receipts and real GDP is nonlinear without asymmetric adjustment. The nonlinearity in this relationship is found from the results of threshold cointegration tests. The causality analysis indicates no causality running from tourism receipts to real GDP in both the long run and the short run. The finding in this paper gives some policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Tourism receipts, economic growth, threshold cointegration, causality |
| JEL: | C22 F14 L80 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72716&r=sea |
| By: | Raj Kumari Bahl; Sotirios Sabanis |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of Catastrophic Mortality Bonds and, in particular, we examine the case of the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003 as a primary example of this class of assets. This bond was the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond to be launched in the market and encapsulates the behaviour of a well-defined mortality index to generate payoffs for bondholders. Pricing this type of bonds is a challenging task and no closed form solution exists in the literature. In our approach, we adapt the payoff of such a bond in terms of the payoff of an Asian put option and present a new approach to derive model-independent bounds exploiting comonotonic theory as illustrated in \cite{prime1} for the pricing of Asian options. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the bond price and illustrate the strength of the bounds. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.07108&r=sea |
| By: | Giang, Long; Nguyen, Cuong |
| Abstract: | This study was aimed to estimate how cash transfer to children could help to reduce their poverty as well as to increase access to education, health and other material life conditions. We find that cash transfers would have a positive effect of income on school enrolment: a one percent increase in per capita income could lead to a 0.0394 percent increase in the probability of children’s primary and secondary school enrolment. In addition, increased income resulted from cash transfers could significantly increase out-of-pocket (OOP) spending on education: a one percent increase in per capita income could help households increase OOP spending on education and OOP spending on education excluding tuition fee by 0.883 percent and 0.454 percent, respectively. Finally, the simulations show that generally the transfer amount of VND 70,000/month/child (which was merely 2.31% of GDP per capita in 2012) could increase the school enrolment rate of children by 0.125 percent. However, there were no significant effects of cash transfers on health care contacts (both impatience and outpatience) and out-of-pocket spending on health care. |
| Keywords: | Cash transfers, children, health, education, Vietnam. |
| JEL: | H5 I0 |
| Date: | 2015–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72628&r=sea |
| By: | Gangadhar Dahal (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | The modern world is more competitive and complex one in terms of getting a quality education and forwarding the countries into the development path. This research contends that system-wide excellence in student learning should be attainable with reasonable cost, using education policies differing from conventional market-oriented reform strategies predominant in many other countries. In this regards, Finland and Singapore are the examples of the best education model that have developed from an out-of-the-way agricultural and industrial state in the 1950s for Finland and 1960s for Singapore to the models knowledge economy, by means of education as the key to economic and social change and development. Believing on data from international student assessments and earlier policy analysis, this article describes how balanced improvement in student learning has been attained through Finnish and Singaporean education policies based on equity, flexibility, creativity, innovative, teacher professionalism, effective policy making from the government side and the most importantly trustworthy. Contrasting to many other education systems, significant accountability conveyed by high-stakes testing and externally determined learning standards has not been part of Finnish and Singaporean education policies. The insight is that Finnish and Singaporean education policies intended to enhance student achievement have been built upon ideas of sustainable leadership that place strong importance on teaching and learning, smart accountability, encouraging schools to craft the best teaching and learning environments and bring into practice educational content that best helps to their students reach the apex goals of education. |
| Keywords: | Educational Policy, Finish education, Singaporean education system |
| JEL: | I21 I28 I25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:itepro:3906631&r=sea |
| By: | Dukgeun Ahn; Maurizio Zanardi |
| Abstract: | In December 2012 Japan requested the establishment of a World Trade Organization (WTO) Panel regarding AD duties that China had imposed on high-performance stainless steel seamless tubes (HP-SSST). The European Union joined as a complainant in June 2013. To some degrees, this dispute follows earlier ones involving China, as similar procedural and substantial issues were raised in previous cases. However, this is the first time that the WTO Panel rejected some important claims, only for those decisions to be reversed by the Appellate Body. Now that various rulings have clarified these legal issues, it remains to be seen if HPSSST represents the last part of growing pains for Chinese authorities to learn about AD legal procedures. |
| Keywords: | Antidumping, WTO trade disputes, China |
| JEL: | F13 K33 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:122796063&r=sea |
| By: | Seah, Kelvin (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | Using a dataset which allows students to be linked to their teachers, this paper examines how educators with an immigrant background affect the academic achievements of secondary school students in the United States. To account for the possibility that immigrant and native teachers may be assigned to different types of schools, and even within schools, to different types of students, two estimation strategies are employed. The first estimates the immigrant teacher impact by comparing the achievements of students with immigrant teachers to the achievements of observationally similar students with native teachers, within schools. The second compares the achievement of a student with an immigrant teacher in one subject to the achievement of the same student with a native teacher in another subject. The results suggest that, overall, immigrant teachers do not have a negative impact on the educational achievements of native students. Additional tests suggest that this non-adverse effect is due to the greater effectiveness of White immigrant teachers relative to native teachers. |
| Keywords: | education economics, immigrant teacher, academic achievement |
| JEL: | I21 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10032&r=sea |
| By: | Chai, Shijun (School of Economics, Xinyang Normal University); Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute); Ye, Dezhu (School of Economics, Jinan University) |
| Abstract: | Using the 2011 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) database, this article explores the heterogeneous impacts of social networks on informal financial inclusion for rural and urban households and identifies two mechanisms through which the informal institution changes households’ financial market decisions. The IV-Probit and IV-Tobit estimation results indicate that social networks significantly increase the probability of the household’s informal financial market participation, the size of informal lending and financing and the ratio of informal lending over the total household assets. By reducing risk aversion and the precautionary saving, we find social networks play a larger role in the urban area of China compared to the rural counterpart. And notably, the effects of informal institution, shaped by various cultural factors and kinships, remain strong and persistent even with formal institutions being firmly established. |
| Keywords: | Social Networks, Informal financial inclusion, Risk attitude, Precautionary saving, Formal institutions |
| JEL: | G21 O16 P34 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2016-04&r=sea |
| By: | Sandro Claudio LERA (ETH Zurich, Singapore-ETH Centre); Didier SORNETTE (ETH Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | We study the performance of the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate in the extraordinary period from September 6, 2011 and January 15, 2015 when the Swiss National Bank enforced a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. Within the general framework built on geometric Brownian motions (GBM), the first-order effect of such a steric constraint would enter a priori in the form of a repulsive entropic force associated with the paths crossing the barrier that are forbidden. It turns out that this naive theory is proved empirically to be completely mistaken. The clue is to realise that the random walk nature of financial prices results from the continuous anticipations of traders about future opportunities, whose aggregate actions translate into an approximate efficient market with almost no arbitrage opportunities. With the Swiss National Bank stated commitment to enforce the barrier, trader's anticipation of this action leads to a volatility of the exchange rate that depends on the distance to the barrier. This effect described by Krugman's model [P.R. Krugman. Target zones and exchange rate dynamics. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(3):669-682, 1991] is supported by non-parametric measurements of the conditional drift and volatility from the data. To the best of our knowledge, our results are the first to provide empirical support for Krugman's model, likely due to the exceptional pressure on the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate that made the barrier effect particularly strong. Despite the obvious differences between "brainless" physical Brownian motions and complex financial Brownian motions resulting from the aggregated investments of anticipating agents, we show that the two systems can be described with the same mathematics after all. Using a recently proposed extended analogy in terms of a colloidal Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of molecules associated with the underlying order book, we derive that, close to the restricting boundary, the dynamics of both systems is described by a stochastic differential equation with a very small constant drift and a linear diffusion coefficient. As a side result, we present a simplified derivation of the linear hydrodynamic diffusion coefficient of a Brownian particle close to a wall. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate dynamics, target zone, order book fluid, econophysics |
| JEL: | E50 E51 E52 E58 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1533&r=sea |