nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2016‒07‒16
twenty-one papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. World Furniture Outlook 2016/2017 By Ugo Finzi; Stefania Pelizzari
  2. Achieving Universal Electricity Access in Indonesia By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  3. Assessing Indonesia’s Long Run Growth: The Role of Total Factor Productivity and Human Capital By Armida Alisjahbana; Viktor Pirmana
  4. Disabling Labeling: The WTO Consistency of the Indonesian Mandatory Halal Labeling Law By Daniel Rais
  5. Strengthening Public Pension Systems in Asia: Conference Proceedings By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  6. Toward Mainstreaming and Sustaining Community-Driven Development in Indonesia: Understanding Local Initiatives and the Transition from the National Rural Community Empowerment Program to the Village Law By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  7. Viet Nam: Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  8. Who Weans with Commodity Price Shocks? Rice Prices and Breastfeeding in the Philippines By Abrigo, Michael R.M.
  9. Relationship between past experience, social network participation and creative capacity: Vietnamese entrepreneurship survey By Quang-Hoi Vu; Thu Trang Vuong; Quan-Hoang Vuong
  10. Asia Bond Monitor March 2016 By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  11. The Effect of Vietnam-Era Conscription and Genetic Potential for Educational Attainment on Schooling Outcomes By Lauren L. Schmitz; Dalton Conley
  12. Towards a Requisite Regulatory Management System: Philippines By Gilberto M. Llanto
  13. Land Inequality or Productivity: What Mattered in Southern Vietnam after 1975? By Minh-Tam T. Bui and Arayah Preechametta
  14. Do economic conditions and in-kind benefits make needy patients bond together? insights from cross-section data on clusters of co-located patients in Vietnam By Quan-Hoang Vuong; Ha Nguyen
  15. Public financial management in Indonesia: Review of Islamic public finance By Jaelani, Aan
  16. Health insurance coverage and firm performance: Evidence using firm level data from Vietnam By Hiroyuki Yamada; Tien Manh Vu
  17. Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement: Impact and Policy Implications for Vietnam By Daniel Rais
  18. Nation Building Through Foreign Intervention: Evidence from Discontinuities in Military Strategies By Melissa Dell; Pablo Querubin
  19. ASEAN-plus-one Free Trade Agreements and their trade effects By Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Lee, Hak-Loh
  20. Boosting National Infrastructure Investment in West Java: An Analysis Using TERM CGE Model By Viktor Pirmana; Armida Alisjahbana; Irlan Adiyatma Rum
  21. Exchange Rate Linkages between the ASEAN Currencies, the US Dollar and the Chinese RMB By Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Kefei You

  1. By: Ugo Finzi (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Stefania Pelizzari (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies)
    Abstract: The World Furniture Outlook 2016-2017 by CSIL provides an overview of the world furniture industry with historical statistical data (production, consumption, imports, exports) and 2017 furniture markets scenario for 70 countries. This market research report also includes: Growth of furniture imports worldwide and the role of furniture exporting countries in the marketplace Market shares of the major furniture exporters are provided by geographical region Analysis of the opening of furniture markets that covers the past nine years, with trade balance, imports/consumption and exports/production ratio data. Statistics and outlook data are also available in a country format: origin of furniture imports destination of furniture exports historical series on furniture production historical series on furniture market size historical series on furniture trade country rankings to place all statistics in a broad worldwide context. The seventy country tables have been expanded to include three additional items: Total household consumption expenditure (in billions of US$) Total GNP at purchasing power parity (in billions of US$) Per capita GNP at purchasing power parity (in US$) Key issues of the World Furniture Outlook 2016-2017 market research report: a picture of opportunities for furniture exporters arising from the increasing openness of markets a rich collection of key country-data, allowing comparisons among specific interest areas. prospects of world furniture trade in 2016-2017, 2016 and 2017 forecasts on the evolution of furniture markets in the considered countries, based on the analysis of furniture industry dynamics and of macro-economic indicators Countries covered (selected according to their contribution to production and international trade of furniture): Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Malaysia, Malta, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, Venezuela, Vietnam.
    JEL: L11 L68 L81
    Date: 2016–06
  2. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: Indonesia has achieved an impressive 84% electrification ratio, but faces significant challenges in reaching the remaining 16% of its households. This report describes Indonesia’s electrification environment and identifies barriers to achieving universal electricity access. Principles drawn from international best practices such as government commitment, enabling institutional environments, adequate and sustainable financing, and stakeholder coordination are discussed in the context of Indonesia’s energy sector. The report gives recommendations for establishing service standards, streamlining financing, setting appropriate targets, and monitoring and evaluation, as well as near-term steps to help achieve universal electricity access.
    Keywords: adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, indonesia, indonesia electrification, electricity access, electrification ratios, SII, energy services, rural electrification, energy access, financing electricity access, lisdes, listrik pedesaan, sumba iconic island initiative, ta 8287-ino
    Date: 2016–03
  3. By: Armida Alisjahbana (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Viktor Pirmana (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)
    Abstract: This paper revisits Indonesia’s long run growth trajectory with particular emphasis on the contribution of human capital accumulation and Total Factor Productivity for the period 2000-2035. The study utilizes the growth accounting framework that estimates contribution of growth in capital stock, human capital, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for the period after Indonesia’s crisis of 1997- 1998. This study extends an earlier study by Alisjahbana (2009) in methodology, and emphasis in the role of human capital to long term growth trajectory. The period of analysis is concentrated from the year 2000 onwards with the following periodization: 2000-2004 (economic stabilization period); 2005-2009 (President SBY First Administration); 2010-2014 (President SBY Second Administration) and the overall period from 2000-2014. Based on the earlier study, it is expected that the pattern of sources of growth post crisis will be enhanced, in which TFP growth and the role of human capital have become more prominent. Results of the sources of economic growth during the 2000-2014 periods are used to project Indonesia’s long run growth trajectory until 2035. The study utilizes the most recent relevant data sets such as Indonesia’s population projection 2010- 2035. The study also benefits from the most current government long-term policy direction in human resources development as well as human capital accumulation.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Total Factor Productivity, Human Capital, Indonesia 2035
    JEL: O11 O47 O53
    Date: 2015–10
  4. By: Daniel Rais
    Abstract: SECO Working Paper No 2016/08: The Halal Act is the first law in Indonesia, a Muslim majority nation, requiring Halal certification and labeling. Prior to the law, the Indonesian Council of Ulama (MUI) oversaw voluntary Halal certification. While Islamic organizations in Indonesia have praised the emergence of this law, local and foreign business entities have expressed their anxiety over whether such requirements would mean extra costs for them. The Halal Act involves several WTO issues, which could raise questions of Indonesia’s compliance with its WTO obligations. There have been a number of WTO cases where panel and the Appellate Body evaluated the concept of ‘public morals’. The question is how to balance this moral/religious objective and the means used to achieve such objective so that they are not more trade restrictive than necessary? It is also important to note that although Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the world, the Indonesian constitution itself specifies that the country is not a Muslim nation and recognizes the existence of more than five religions in the country. This paper seeks to examine the WTO TBT consistency of the new Indonesian Halal Act and whether mandatory halal certification and labeling can be defended as an exception to WTO law.
    Date: 2016–06–28
  5. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: Asia’s population is aging and old-age income support and social services is an emerging challenge. Strengthening pension systems in Asia is therefore a key concern for inclusive development in the region. In many Asian countries, pension systems are still inadequate in terms of both coverage and delivery of stipulated benefits. This is particularly so for smaller economies of Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam—or commonly referred to as CLMVT economies. A number of structural issues such as governance, regulation, and institutional and administrative capacities hinder their development. Well-designed, well-functioning, and sustainable pension systems will promote inclusive growth by supporting old-age income and providing the much-needed social safety net. These issues and challenges are discussed in these summary proceedings of the Conference on “Strengthening Public Pension Systems in Asia”, which focused on CLMVT economies organized by the Asian Development Bank and the Pacific Pension & Investment Institute on 3–4 September 2015 in Bangkok.
    Keywords: public pension systems, aging population, old-age income, social services, CLMVT, rapid aging
    Date: 2016–03
  6. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: Indonesia has adopted community-driven development as a major strategy for poverty reduction, and replicated the approach nationwide through a number of programs. Over the past few years, the country has formulated a road map for sustaining the systems, procedures, and benefits of community-driven development. Through case studies, the study examines the ongoing transition from the government’s long-standing National Community Empowerment Program to mainstreaming through the government’s regular planning and budget allocation system through the Village Law, which was enacted in early 2014. The study summarizes important lessons learned and policy implications from the first year of Village Law implementation.
    Keywords: community, Indonesia, community-driven development program, PNPM-Mandiri, PNPM-Rural, national community empowerment program, CDD mainstreaming, empowerment, Village Law, participatory planning, poverty reduction program, transition
    Date: 2016–01
  7. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: The latest energy sector assessment, strategy, and road map for Viet Nam of the Southeast Asia Energy Division of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) highlights energy sector performance, major development constraints, government development plans and strategy, previous support from ADB and other development partners, and ADB’s future support strategy in Viet Nam’s energy sector. The assessment, strategy, and road map will add on to ADB’s 2016–2020 country partnership strategy for Viet Nam. The report also provides energy sector background information for ADB investment and technical assistance operations.
    Keywords: Energy, Viet Nam, renewable energy, power generation plants, green growth strategy, country partnership strategy, sector assessment, hydropower plant, liquefied natural gas, energy consumption, noncommercial energy, crude oil
    Date: 2016–01
  8. By: Abrigo, Michael R.M.
    Abstract: Commodity market fluctuations have been linked with a number of adult outcomes. Recent evidence on the lasting impact of early life conditions, however, suggests that the e ffects on children may be important as well. Using large spatio-temporal variations in rice prices in the Philippines as a natural experiment, the study estimates the eff ect of increasing food prices on parental behavior regarding an inexpensive yet time-intensive child investment: breastmilk feeding. It documents a countercyclical relationship between breastfeeding duration and rice prices, which may be a consequence of poorer health and induced labor force participation among mothers. Results highlight that even food producers may not be insulated against food price inflation.
    Keywords: Philippines, food prices, breastfeeding, child investments
    Date: 2016
  9. By: Quang-Hoi Vu; Thu Trang Vuong; Quan-Hoang Vuong
    Abstract: The notions of entrepreneurship and creativity in developed economies, despite having gained attention among researchers, remain embryonic in numerous emerging economies. Being focused on entrepreneurs in a typical transitional and emerging market economy, Vietnam, this paper aims to empirically explore the influence that past entrepreneurial efforts may exert on the perceptions of entrepreneurs about their own creativity performance. The study also seeks to understand how entrepreneurs social networks contribute to perceived creativity capacity by entrepreneurs who participate in those societies. The empirical research results suggest that entrepreneurs with business experience and active networking engagement are more likely to believe in their own creativity. This knowledge and insights in turn offer some implications for addressing the lack of radical creativity among Vietnamese entrepreneurs.
    Keywords: Creativity/innovation; entrepreneurship; emerging economy; Vietnam
    JEL: M13 O33 P21 P27
    Date: 2016–07–08
  10. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This publication reviews recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets along with the outlook, risks, and policy options. It covers the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus the People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and the Republic of Korea.
    Keywords: bonds; local currency; foreign currency; bond yields; emerging East Asia; bonds outstanding; bond issuance; bond market; foreign investor holdings; People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; Viet Nam; credit spreads; government bonds; corporate bonds, Federal Reserve; G3 currency; credit default swaps; interest rate; treasury bonds; treasury bills; central bank
    Date: 2016–03
  11. By: Lauren L. Schmitz; Dalton Conley
    Abstract: This study examines whether draft-lottery estimates of the causal effect of Vietnam-era military service on schooling vary by genetic propensity toward educational attainment. To capture the complex genetic architecture that underlies the bio-developmental pathways behavioral traits and evoked environments associated with educational attainment, we construct a polygenic score (PGS) for the Vietnam-era cohort in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) that aggregates thousands of individual loci across the human genome, weighted by effect sizes derived from a recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) for years of education. Our findings suggest veterans with below average PGSs for educational attainment completed fewer years of schooling than comparable non-veterans with the same PGS, primarily due to fewer years of college education. On the other hand, we do not find any difference in the educational attainment of veterans and non-veterans with above average PGSs. Results show that public policies and exogenous environments may induce heterogeneous treatment effects by genetic disposition.
    JEL: I20 I24 I26 J01
    Date: 2016–07
  12. By: Gilberto M. Llanto (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Philippine Institute for Development Studies)
    Abstract: Part One of this paper explores the evolution of regulation in the Philippines since the post-martial rule regime. This paper tracks the macroeconomic and regulatory reforms, and the political and economic history. It explores the existence of a regulatory management system in the Philippines, identifying that the Philippines does not have a coherent regulatory management system, but does has some of the parts of such a system. Parts Two explores how some aspects of a regulatory management system were applied in the successful case study of regulatory change in the establishment of the National Competitiveness Council, a public private partnership, while Part Three looks at another successful case in the regulatory reforms of Quezon City’s Business Permit and Licensing System.
    Keywords: regulatory reform, regulatory management, RIS, regulatory impact analysis, national competitiveness council, quezon city business permit, licensing system
    JEL: K23 K20 L5 L51 L74
    Date: 2016–07
  13. By: Minh-Tam T. Bui and Arayah Preechametta
    Abstract: Land redistribution and agricultural collective production were the key components of agrarian reforms implemented by the Vietnamese Communist Party in the south of the country after 1975. Land inequality was serious in the region under the Republic of Vietnam's regime. The new government struggled with agricultural collectivisation contributing to the decline in rice productivity. This study explains the persistence of a market-based agricultural production in the southern economy under the new political regime. Beside the economic reasons and arguments of local peasants' everyday politics cited in the literature, we argue that the de facto political power of the middle-class landowners was an important factor impeding the performance of agricultural cooperatives. It also implies that agricultural productivity was more vital than land inequality during the study period. We apply the model of Acemoglu and Robinson explaining how de facto political power helps elites to maintain their economic institutions in spite of a political change.
    Keywords: land inequality, agrarian reform, collectivisation, de facto political power, Vietnam
    Date: 2016–07–01
  14. By: Quan-Hoang Vuong; Ha Nguyen
    Abstract: Introduction: The phenomenon of desperate patients live together in voluntary co-location clusters has been emerging over the past decade in Vietnam. Patients seek to share facilities, reduce costs and rely on one another's support to make life safer and less miserable. There has not been much research on these clusters and patients' bonding to their community.Methods: The study uses a cross-section data set containing 336 observations from four patients' colocation clusters, collected from 2015Q4 to 2016Q1. The analysis employs the baseline category logits model for dichotomous variable, and reports logistic regression results. The main hypothesis is both economic conditions and in-kind benefits received from the community have influence onpatients' bonding to their community. Results: Both personal economic conditions and benefits are found statistically significant, but the in-kind benefits decrease the bonding strength of the community, while the impact of economic instability is as expected. The strongest factor that serves to bond the patients together is the free will and predetermination of patients themselves to join the community.Discussion: Patients in unstable conditions will more likely to stick to the colocation community. But those in better economic conditions show a more complex need and their perceptions change depending on the specific conditions. In-kind benefits are not what poorer patients expect and when they see these benefits from the community as “substitutes” for financial means, their expectation of sticking to the community declines.
    Keywords: patients' quality of life; medical expenses; personal economic conditions; in-kind benefits; bonding strength
    JEL: I12 I19
    Date: 2016–06–30
  15. By: Jaelani, Aan
    Abstract: Public financial management by the government is very important in view of the level of welfare in Indonesia is still low, as there are still much poverty with the level of fulfillment of the needs of low, corruption that occurs in every area of government, income distribution is uneven, low economic growth, and various irregularities other budget. With a qualitative approach that emphasises the phenomenon of the social reality and the country's financial management practices in Indonesia, the approach to history and historical analysis is able to provide solutions to the existing problems. Reviewing public financial revenues and government spending become instruments in creating public welfare
    Keywords: Budget management, public finance, budgeting, welfare
    JEL: B15 G18 H2 H6 P5 Z12
    Date: 2015–10–05
  16. By: Hiroyuki Yamada (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Tien Manh Vu (International Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)
    Abstract: In literature, there is limited direct evidence regarding the effect of health insurance coverage on firm performance and worker productivity. In this paper, we study the impacts of health insurance on medium and large-scale domestic private firms' performance and productivity in Vietnam, using a large firm level census dataset. We deploy propensity-score matching methods, and find statistically positive health insurance effects on both aggregate profit and profit per worker for both complying and non-complying medium and large-scale firms. Given the full sample results, we recommend an improvement in government monitoring as one of the important policy options to induce medium and large-scale firms to contribute to health insurance premiums for their employees.
    Keywords: Health insurance, Medium and large-scale firms, Propensity-score matching, Vietnam
    JEL: D22 I13 I15 I18 O25
    Date: 2016–07
  17. By: Daniel Rais
    Abstract: SECO Working Paper 7/2016
    Date: 2016–07–01
  18. By: Melissa Dell; Pablo Querubin
    Abstract: This study uses discontinuities in U.S. strategies employed during the Vietnam War to estimate their causal impacts. It identifies the effects of bombing by exploiting rounding thresholds in an algorithm used to target air strikes. Bombing increased the military and political activities of the communist insurgency, weakened local governance, and reduced non-communist civic engagement. The study also exploits a spatial discontinuity across neighboring military regions, which pursued different counterinsurgency strategies. A strategy emphasizing overwhelming firepower plausibly increased insurgent attacks and worsened attitudes towards the U.S. and South Vietnamese government, relative to a hearts and minds oriented approach.
    JEL: F35 F51 F52
    Date: 2016–07
  19. By: Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Lee, Hak-Loh
    Abstract: This article reviewed ASEAN-plus-one free trade agreements (FTAs) by describing the backgrounds and issues in their formations, and by examining their trade effects through an empirical analysis. The empirics examined the trade creation and diversion effects of ASEAN-plus-one FTAs by estimating the gravity trade model for the recent two decades between 1993 and 2013. The estimation outcomes showed that the trade creation effect in ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) was much larger than those in ASEAN-Korea FTA (AKFTA) and ASEAN-Japan FTA (AJFTA), and that the trade diversion effects were commonly negative in ACFTA, AKFTA and AJFTA as expected. The larger trade creation effect in ACFTA might come from the wider gap between the general tariff rate and the preferential tariff rate for ASEAN in China.
    Keywords: trade creation and diversion effects, ASEAN-plus-one, free trade agreement
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2016–07
  20. By: Viktor Pirmana (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Armida Alisjahbana (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Irlan Adiyatma Rum (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)
    Abstract: It is well established that infrastructure investment plays significant role in the acceleration of development through its impact on growth, sector performance and socio-economic indicators. West Java Province is province with the largest population in Indonesia and main contributor to national GDP. In this study, the impact of increased national infrastructure investment in West Java Province is assessed using 2014 data. JaBarTERM5 CGE model is used to simulate two infrastructure investment scenarios, the moderate scenario or increase in government national infrastructure investment only, and the progressive scenario that combines government national infrastructure investment with private investment. The results indicate that under the moderate scenario, West Java GRDP increased by 1.91% (1.91 percentage point compared to baseline, while in the progressive scenario (national plus private infrastructure investment), GRDP increased by up to 3.58% (3.58 percentage point compared to baseline). However, there are differential responses at district level. Districts that experience the highest increase in GRDP are districts close to industrial areas in the vicinity of Jakarta and Bandung. When viewed from its impact on provincial employment, it increases by 2.27% (2.27 percentage point compared to the baseline case) under the progressive scenario. The employment impact is particularly more pronounced in districts that are industrial areas. Sectors that experience increase in their production are Cements, Papers, Textiles, Food Crops, and Transportation Services. Another result is an increase in the prices of Real Estate, and Business and Financial Services, while the price (cost) of trade and transport sector has decreased due to an increase in the access and quality of infrastructure.
    Keywords: National Infrastructure Investment, TERM CGE model, West Java Province
    JEL: H54 H72
    Date: 2016–06
  21. By: Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Kefei You
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the RMB is in the process of replacing the US dollar as the anchor currency in nine ASEAN countries, and also the linkages between the ASEAN currencies and a regional currency unit. A long-memory (fractional integration) model allowing for endogenously determined structural breaks is estimated for these purposes (Gil-Alana, 2008). The results suggest that the ASEAN currencies are much more interlinked than previously thought, whether or not breaks are taken into account, which provides support for a regional currency index as an anchor. Moreover, incorporating a break shows that the linkages between these currencies and the RMB and the US dollar respectively are equally important, and in fact in recent years the former have become stronger than the latter. Therefore including the RMB in the regional index should be considered.
    Keywords: ASEAN currencies, Chinese RMB, US dollar peg, fractional integration, breaks
    JEL: F31 C22
    Date: 2016

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