nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2016‒04‒09
nine papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Improving Public Infrastructure in the Philippines By Takuji Komatsuzaki
  2. Housing Policies in Singapore By Phang, Sock-Yong; Helble, Matthias
  3. Estimation of Vulnerability to Poverty Using a Multilevel Longitudinal Model: Evidence from the Philippines By Christian D. Mina; Katsushi S. Imai
  4. Risks, Shocks, Building Resilience: Philippines By Llanto, Gilberto M.
  5. Does education increase political participation? Evidence from Indonesia By Parinduri, Rasyad
  6. Modelling the Vietnamese Economy By FitzGerald, John; Chi, Pho Thi Kim; Lam, Do Van; Ha, Hoang; Huong, Luong; Dung, Tran
  7. The response of industrial production to the price of oil: new evidence for Thailand By Jiranyakul, Komain
  8. Institutional Complementarity across Countries in Bilateral FDI Flows: Theory and Evidence By Pao-Li Chang
  9. Tsunami Monetário – Ciclos Monetários Internacionais e Desafios para a Economia Brasileira By Tony Volpon

  1. By: Takuji Komatsuzaki
    Abstract: This paper explores the macroeconomic effects of improving public infrastructure in the Philippines. After benchmarking the Philippines relative to its neighbors in terms of level of public capital and quality of public infrastructure, and public investment efficiency, it uses model simulations to assess the macroeconomic implications of raising public investment and improving public investment efficiency. The main results are as follows: (i) increasing public infrastructure investment results in sustained gains in output; (ii) the effects of improving public investment efficiency are substantial; and (iii) deficit-financed increases in public investment lead to higher borrowing costs that constrain output increases over time, underscoring the importance of revenue mobilization.
    Keywords: Infrastructure;Philippines;Asia and Pacific;Public Investment Efficiency, investment, public investment, tax, stock, capital stock, Infrastructures,
    Date: 2016–02–29
  2. By: Phang, Sock-Yong (Asian Development Bank Institute); Helble, Matthias (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Singapore has developed a unique housing system, with three-quarters of its housing stock built by the Housing & Development Board (HDB) and homeownership financed through Central Provident Fund (CPF) savings. As a result, the country’s homeownership rate of 90% is one of the highest among market economies. At different stages of its economic development, the Government of Singapore was faced with a different set of housing problems. An integrated land–housing supply and financing framework was established in the 1960s to solve the severe housing shortage. By the 1990s, the challenge was that of renewing aging estates and creating a market for HDB transactions. Housing subsidies in the form of housing grants were also introduced. Recent challenges include curbing speculative and investment demand, as well as coping with increasing income inequalities and an aging population. These have brought about carefully crafted macroprudential policies, targeted housing grants, and schemes to help elderly households monetize their housing equity. This paper analyzes key pillars of the housing policy, specifically land acquisition, the HDB–CPF system, the role of markets, housing market interventions, the Ethnic Integration Policy, and the Lease Buyback Scheme. It concludes with lessons learned for other countries.
    Keywords: Singapore; housing policies; homeownership; targeted housing grants
    JEL: R21 R31 R38
    Date: 2016–03–23
  3. By: Christian D. Mina (Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), the Philippines); Katsushi S. Imai (School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester (UK) and RIEB, Kobe University (Japan))
    Abstract: Using the panel data for the Philippines in 2003-2009, we estimate a three-level random coefficient model to measure household vulnerability and to decompose it into idiosyncratic and covariate components. We correct heterogeneity bias using Bell and Jones’s (2015) ‘within-between’ formulation. A majority of the poor and 18 percent of the non-poor are found to be vulnerable to unobservable shocks, while both groups of households are more susceptible to idiosyncratic shocks than to covariate shocks. Adequate safety nets should be provided for vulnerable households that lack access to infrastructure, or are larger in size with more dependents and less-educated heads. The JEL codes: C23, I32, O15 Key Words: Vulnerability, Poverty, Multilevel Model, Panel Data,
    Keywords: Vulnerability, Poverty, Multilevel model, Panel data, The Philippines
    JEL: C23 I32 O15
    Date: 2016–03
  4. By: Llanto, Gilberto M.
    Abstract: Globally, the rise of new and unexpected risks and shocks has impacted stable and poor societies alike, and some, especially the latter, have become increasingly dysfunctional. The Philippines is peculiarly challenged to build economic resilience as indicated by its high-risk exposure and vulnerability. The objective of this paper is to point to policymakers the importance of resilience thinking and the formulation of appropriate policy interventions to build economic resilience. Policymakers should be aware and conversant about risk analysis, risk management, and what policies can best respond to exogenous shocks. This is to say that such policies should be underpinned by policy analysis and research on resilience systems. There is also need for a shared vision in the communities and in the larger polity about what to do about those risks. Building economic resilience requires finding effective instruments, that is, policies and interventions to deal with different risks, shocks, for example, natural disasters, pandemics, financial crisis, and the traumatic effects of those shocks.
    Keywords: Philippines, resilience, structural transformation, risk, exposure, vulnerability, external shocks, natural disasters, financial crisis, pandemics, adaptability, absorptive capacity
    Date: 2016
  5. By: Parinduri, Rasyad
    Abstract: I examine whether education increases voter turnout and makes better voters using an exogenous variation in education induced by an extension of Indonesia's school term length, which fits a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. The longer school year increases education, but I do not find evidence that education makes people more likely to vote in elections or changes whether they consider political candidates' religion, ethnicity, or gender important when they vote. If anything, education seems to make voters more likely to think candidates' development programs are important.
    Keywords: education, political participation, regression discontinuity design, Asia, Indonesia
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2016–03
  6. By: FitzGerald, John; Chi, Pho Thi Kim; Lam, Do Van; Ha, Hoang; Huong, Luong; Dung, Tran
    Abstract: This paper considers the factors determining the long-run behaviour of the Vietnamese economy. Using a macro-economic model of the Vietnamese economy it considers some of the factors that have contributed to growth over the last decade and also some of the policy options for the rest of the decade.
    Date: 2016–03
  7. By: Jiranyakul, Komain
    Abstract: This paper examines the oil price-industrial production nexus in Thailand by using multivariate cointegration test. In addition, Granger causality is also used to examine the impact of oil price uncertainty on industrial production growth. The main focus of this paper is on one sector of the economy, i.e., manufacturing sector. Monthly data from 1993 to 2015 are utilized. Empirical results reveal that there is a stable long-run relationship between industrial production and real oil price along with other variables. Industrial production adjusts rapidly to shocks to lending rate, price level and oil price. Furthermore, there exists long-run causality running from lend rate, price level and oil price to industrial production. Furthermore, industrial production growth does not respond to oil price shock and oil price uncertainty. These findings give policy implication.
    Keywords: Industrial production, oil price shock, oil price volatility, cointegration, causality
    JEL: C22 Q43
    Date: 2016–04
  8. By: Pao-Li Chang (Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper builds a theory to characterize the comparative advantage of MNEs based in countries of different institutional qualities. It is shown that MNEs headquartered in countries of poorer state institutions will invest more in `informal institutions' and choose to undertake FDI in countries of weaker institutions. At the aggregate, MNEs on average generate more net profits in countries of weaker institutions, the poorer the institutional environment at home. I conduct an extensive test of the theory using bilateral FDI volume for 219 economies in year 2001-2010. The results indicate a statistically significant and robust institutional complementarity e ect in bilateral FDI volume.
    Keywords: Informal Institution; Foreign Direct Investment; Gravity Equation; Tobit
    JEL: C21 C23 C24 F21 F23
    Date: 2015–12
  9. By: Tony Volpon
    Abstract: This paper analyses China's central role in determining monetary cycles across countries since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. At first, China`s accumulation strategy, based on the repression of domestic consumption demand, generated an excess supply without a compensating increase in domestic demand. The solution was found in establishing a pattern of trade deficits and surpluses between China and its partners, on the one hand, and consuming countries, especially the United States, on the other hand, resulting in an arrangement that reorganized aggregate demand and supply among countries in a mutually beneficial way. However, on the financial side, there has been a progressive mismatch of risks that eventually led to the global financial crisis of 2008. Particularly, countries with current account surpluses, through the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by their central banks, agreed to cover the exchange rate risk, but not the credit risk being generated by consumers. This "residual" credit risk was then accumulated within the financial system, which saw dramatic growth until the crisis of 2008. With the outbreak of the crisis, this system of commercial and financial intermediation collapsed. To take its place in an attempt to generate new sources of aggregate demand, and due to political constraints to fiscal expansion, each member of the system, in its own way, replaced the pre-crisis arrangements with unconventional monetary policy measures. This led to "liquidity tsunamis" of foreign capital during the post-crisis period, particularly for emerging economies. Despite restoring the global liquidity level, these policies still did not re-established the pre-crisis levels of economic growth and exchange rates
    Date: 2016–03

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