nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2016‒03‒17
twenty-two papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Is energy a stimulus for economic growth? A focused study on Malaysia using the auto regressive distributed lag technique By Abarahan, Amnisuhailah Binti; Masih, Mansur
  2. Zakah Management for Poverty Alleviation in Indonesia and Brunei Darussalam By Jaelani, Aan
  3. A Case Study over the Concept of “Effectivités†to Decide Sovereignty over Disputed Islands: Malaysia/Singapor By Faruk GUNAL
  4. The peril of parliamentarism? : executive–legislative relations and the transition to democracy from electoral authoritarian rule By Higashijima, Masaaki; Kasuya, Yuko
  5. One Mandarin Benefits the Whole Clan: Hometown Favoritism in an Authoritarian Regime By Quoc-Anh Do; Kieu-Trang Nguyen; Anh N. Tran
  6. Cambodia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cambodia By International Monetary Fund
  7. Technical Efficiency of Takaful Industry: A Comparative Study of Malaysia and GCC Countries By Hela Miniaoui; Anissa Chaibi
  8. Risk-type and preference-based selection and stability of funeral insurance associations in Thailand By Tabea Herrmann; Juliane Zenker
  9. How does women’s time in reproductive work and agriculture affect maternal and child nutrition? Evidence from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Ghana, Mozambique, and Nepal: By Komatsu, Hitomi; Malapit, Hazel Jean L.; Theis, Sophie
  10. Deriving the factor endowment-commodity output relationship for Thailand (1920-1929) using a three-factor two-good model By Nakada, Yoshiaki
  11. DO SELF-THEORIES ON INTELLIGENCE EXPLAIN OVERCONFIDENCE AND RISK TAKING? A Field Experiment. By Bertrand Koebel; André Schmitt; Sandrine Spaeter
  12. Women’s Leadership and Corporate Performance By Qian, Meijun
  13. Descriptive analysis of the knowledge network formation in East Asia By Nabeshima, Kaoru; Kang, Byeongwoo; Kashcheeva, Mila
  14. Unified M-Estimation of Fixed-Effects Spatial Dynamic Models with Short Panels By Yang Zhenlin
  15. Medical savings accounts: assessing their impact on efficiency, equity, and financial protection in health care By Olivier J. Wouters; Jonathan Cylus; Wei Yang; Sarah Thomson; Martin McKee
  16. Do spot and future palm oil prices influence the stock market prices of a major palm oil producer? the Malaysian experience By Mohammad Nor, Karina; Masih, Mansur
  17. From Global Savings Glut to Financing Infrastructure; The Advent of Investment Platforms By Rabah Arezki; Patrick Bolton; Sanjay Peters; Frederic Samama; Joseph Stiglitz
  18. Impact of Gender Inequality on the Republic of Korea’s Long-Term Economic Growth: An Application of the Theoretical Model of Gender Inequality and Economic Growth By Kim, Jinyoung; Lee, Jong-Wha; Shin, Kwanho
  19. "Free Entry and Social Inefficiency in Vertical Relationships: The Case of the MRI Market" By Ken Onishi; Naoki Wakamori; Chiyo Hashimoto; Shun-ichiro Bessho
  20. Social Norms, Labor Market Opportunities, and the Marriage Gap for Skilled Women By Marianne Bertrand; Patricia Cortés; Claudia Olivetti; Jessica Pan
  21. A Brief History of Human Time: Exploring a database of 'notable people' By Olivier Gergaud; Morgane Laouénan; Etienne Wasmer
  22. Comparison of two entropy approaches in understanding stock market dynamics By Zhi Qiao

  1. By: Abarahan, Amnisuhailah Binti; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: It is without doubt that a country’s economic growth is important to ensure the well-being of its population as well as the country’s accreditation of its own economic standing to the world. With time, economic growth is often associated with the consumption of energy. Being the aim of any country to characterise itself with sustainable development, energy becomes prevalently abused to the extent of the considerable consequences we are experiencing today. However, it is uncertain whether it is the abusive energy consumption that results the economy to grow favourably, or is it the economy that leads to consuming energy in the first place. The conservation hypothesis, growth hypothesis, feedback hypothesis and neutrality hypothesis each explains this causal relationship differently. Previous studies have been done on finding the causality between the two, many using co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques but the results are still mixed. In this study, we intend to apply the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique to investigate the issue at hand in the case of Malaysia for the period of 1971-2012. Malaysia is a good reference for a country which has grown and developed progressively in the Asian region, with its abundance of natural oil and gas as the main drivers of energy sources for the country. Our study brings us to the finding of a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption. We also take note on the weak causality from economic growth and energy consumption to energy price. Thus, with the unidirectional finding from economic growth to energy consumption, policy makers are able to formulate effective measures for energy conservations without affecting the economic growth of the country.
    Keywords: Energy, Economic Growth, ARDL, Malaysia
    JEL: C22 C58 Q43
    Date: 2016–01–20
  2. By: Jaelani, Aan
    Abstract: Poverty reduction has become the focus of historians, sociologists and economists throughout its history. The causative factors of poverty have been identified in the form of income ineligibility to social injustice and economic system. The efforts of poverty reduction into government policy to reform the social security system for socio-economic system reform. Because poverty is a multidimensional problem, solutions that do require a set of co-ordinated action, particularly through charity. Indonesia has a large population with the problem of poverty is the target completion in economic development. However, optimizing the potential of zakat which is high on the people of Indonesia and the cooperation among stakeholders and government regulation to be a solution in reducing poverty. It is certainly different from Brunei Darussalam to the level of a small population and government revenues are high, so the management of zakat by MUIB in the form of cash grants, capital of commerce, and others are implementable can resolve the problem of poverty in this country.
    Keywords: management of zakat, poverty alleviation, zakat recipients
    JEL: A23 E62 F52 G23 G28 H27 H3 H71 I3 I31 I38 N3
    Date: 2015–10–17
  3. By: Faruk GUNAL (Turkish Naval War Collage)
    Abstract: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) announced its verdict on a territorial dispute between Singapore and Malaysia on 23 May 2008, involving the three marine features of Pedra Branca/Pulau Batu Puteh, Middle Rocks, and South Ledge. Consequently, Pedra Branca/Pulau Batu Puteh awarded to Singapore and Middle Rocks to Malaysia. The Court found that sovereignty over South Ledge belongs to the State in the territorial waters of which it is located.In this Case, the ICJ decided by following a specific method; first, it described the geographical context, and next gave an overview of the complex historical background, then examined the positions of the Parties, legal status of the islands and applicable law, finally took the conduct of the Parties into consideration for the purpose of assessing and validating effectivités. Effectivités of the Parties seem to be decisive and have a direct effect on the verdict in this Case. This study shows that some categories of effectivités are legally significant and demonstrate à titre de souverain, but some are not. Additionally, it points out that not to protest the opponent’s activities with respect to the maritime features in dispute is seen as “implied recognition†by the Court.
    Keywords: Effectivités, Disputed Island, Sovereignty, International Court of Justice, Malaysia/Singapore Case, Pedra Branca/Pulau Batu Puteh
    JEL: K33
  4. By: Higashijima, Masaaki; Kasuya, Yuko
    Abstract: Why do some electoral authoritarian regimes survive for decades while others become democracies? This article explores the impact of constitutional structures on democratic transitions from electoral authoritarianism. We argue that under electoral authoritarian regimes, parliamentary systems permit dictators to survive longer than they do in presidential systems. This is because parliamentary systems incentivize autocrats and ruling elites to engage in power sharing and thus institutionalize party organizations, and indirectly allow electoral manipulation to achieve an overwhelming victory at the ballot box, through practices such as gerrymandering and malapportionment. We test our hypothesis using a combination of cross-national statistical analysis and comparative case studies of Malaysia and the Philippines. Employing a cross-national dataset of 170 countries between 1946 and 2008, dynamic probit models provide supporting evidence that electoral authoritarianism within parliamentary systems is less likely to lead a country to democracy than within presidential systems. The results are robust to a battery of sensitivity tests, including instrumental variable estimation and additional controls. Two carefully selected case studies have been chosen for comparative analysis—Malaysia’s Barisan National (National Front) regime (1957 to present) and the Philippines's electoral authoritarian regime (1978 to 1986)—which elucidate causal mechanisms in the theory.
    Keywords: Democratization, Electoral Authoritarianism, Presidentialism vs. Parliamentarism, Southeast Asia, Political Institutions
    Date: 2016
  5. By: Quoc-Anh Do; Kieu-Trang Nguyen; Anh N. Tran
    Abstract: We study patronage politics in authoritarian Vietnam, using an exhaustive panel of 603 ranking officials from 2000 to 2010 to estimate their promotions' impact on infrastructure in their hometowns of patrilineal ancestry. Native officials' promotions lead to a broad range of hometown infrastructure improvement. Hometown favoritism is pervasive across all ranks, even among officials without budget authority, except among elected legislators. Favors are narrowly targeted towards small communes that have no political power, and are strengthened with bad local governance and strong local family values. The evidence suggests a likely motive of social preferences for hometown.
    Keywords: Favoritism, patronage, authoritarian regime, political connection, hometown, infrastructure, distributive politics
    JEL: O12 D72 H72
    Date: 2016–02
  6. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Cambodia remained strong with a growth rate at 7 percent in 2014, notwithstanding appreciation of the real effective exchange rate following U.S. dollar strengthening and growing competition from other low-cost garment producers. Inflation fell in 2014 and through 2015, owing to strong external disinflationary pressures from lower food and oil prices. The short-term outlook remains broadly favorable. Growth is projected to remain robust at 7 percent in 2015, while inflation is projected to rise gradually to about 2 percent by end-2015. The fiscal deficit is projected to rise modestly to 2 percent in 2015 as a result of strong measures to improve revenue administration.
    Keywords: Cambodia;Asia and Pacific;credit growth, inflation, financial stability, reserves, exchange
    Date: 2015–11–16
  7. By: Hela Miniaoui; Anissa Chaibi
    Date: 2016–02–18
  8. By: Tabea Herrmann (University of Hannover); Juliane Zenker (University of Göttingen)
    Abstract: Funeral Aid Associations (FAAs) in Northeast Thailand offer micro funeral insurance at affordable premium levels while they barely risk-rate potential members. Due to the set-up of FAAs, high-risk individuals have a monetary incentive to join the insurance. Compared to many other micro insurance schemes, however, FAAs do not seem to face adverse effects of this unregulated selection of highrisk individuals into the schemes. We show that this is partly due to a counter-balancing selection of a sufficient number of low-risk individuals, who deliberately buy insurance despite what their risk types would advice. This is particularly the case for married individuals who self-select into the associations at relatively lower risks. We provide a theoretical framework showing that marriage may reduce mortality risk and at the same time increase insurance demand based on altruistic tendencies towards the spouse. Our results suggest that this preference based selection is able to balance 13 percent of the high-risk type selection based on age, health, and gender.
    Keywords: Asymmetric Information; Adverse Selection; Advantageous Selection; Microinsurance; Thailand
    JEL: D14 D82 G22 O12
    Date: 2016–02–28
  9. By: Komatsu, Hitomi; Malapit, Hazel Jean L.; Theis, Sophie
    Abstract: There are concerns that increasing women’s engagement in agriculture could have a negative effect on nutrition because it limits the time available for nutrition-improving reproductive work. However, very few empirical studies have been able to analyze whether these concerns are well-founded. This paper examines whether an increase in women’s time in agriculture adversely affects maternal and child nutrition, and whether the lack of women’s time in reproductive work leads to poorer nutrition. Using data from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Ghana, Mozambique, and Nepal, we find that on the whole, in poor households, reductions in women’s reproductive work time are detrimental to nutrition, especially for children. In contrast, women’s and children’s nutrition in nonpoor households is less sensitive to reductions in time on reproductive work. Working long hours in agriculture reduces women’s dietary diversity score in Ghana and nonpoor women’s in Mozambique. However, for poor women and children in Mozambique, and children in Nepal, working in agriculture in fact increases dietary diversity. This suggests that agriculture as a source of food and income is particularly important for the poor. Our results illustrate that women’s time allocation and nutrition responses to agricultural interventions are likely to vary according to socioeconomic status and local context.
    Keywords: gender, women, agriculture, poverty, nutrition, children, time, time allocation,
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Nakada, Yoshiaki
    Abstract: None
    Keywords: None
    JEL: D58 F11
    Date: 2015–12–16
  11. By: Bertrand Koebel; André Schmitt; Sandrine Spaeter
    Abstract: Self-theories deal with how an individual perceives some of her attributes such as intelligence. People endorse basically one of two theories: growth mindset people think that intelligence can be developed (incremental theory) whereas fixed mindset people believe that intelligence is a fixed trait (entity theory). These theories play an important role on motivation and achievement as shown by Carol Dweck’s life-long research. They also impact self-assessment accuracy since fixed mindsets are much more imprecise in estimating their own ability. In behavioral economics, overconfidence is shown to play an important role in individual’s preferences and choices. In this paper, we conducted a field experiment to investigate whether self-theories impact overconfidence. Early career Vietnamese executives pursuing an MBA were incentivized. Our sample of managers and professionals controls for a wide range of corporate and demographic variables. The main result of our paper is that self-theories impact overconfidence when taking into account income. As in previous studies, we also find that subjects exhibit significant absolute overconfidence. Gender does not have any impact on overconfidence. We also tested the relationships between self-theories and risk taking.
    Keywords: self-theories; overconfidence; experiment; mindset; risk-taking.
    JEL: C93 D81
    Date: 2016
  12. By: Qian, Meijun (Australian National University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the gender diversity in corporate boardrooms in Asia and the Pacific and how the diversity affects corporate performance. We find that boardroom gender diversity is low in Asia with 7.5% female representation on average in 2012, but showing a 1.8% improvement in 2013. The appointment of female directors and a gender-diverse boardroom are on average positively associated with a firm’s subsequent performance, but with large cross-country and cross-measurement differences. Firm performance is the highest when there are two females on the board. Using two-stage analyses, we find that (i) a firm’s past performance does not predict its choice to add female directors; (ii) cross-country differences in female corporate leadership respond to its economic demand and supply as measured by gender equality in college education, labor participation, wages, and infant survival; and (iii) female representation on the board, when determined by these economic factors, is a significant predictor of a firm’s future performance.
    Keywords: corporate performance; development equality; director choices; female leadership
    JEL: G38 J71 O16
    Date: 2016–01–26
  13. By: Nabeshima, Kaoru; Kang, Byeongwoo; Kashcheeva, Mila
    Abstract: This paper shows descriptively how the knowledge network in East Asia has been formed. In addition, the correlation between the knowledge network and economic growth is also examined. Evidence is provided to show that plugging into the knowledge network of developed countries could be a key for increasing innovativeness in a country.
    Keywords: Asia, Research & development, Scientific technology, Technological innovations, Technology transfer, Economic growth, Economic development, Macroeconomics, Network, Globalization, East Asia, Knowledge network, Patent data
    JEL: O11 O40 O53
    Date: 2016–03
  14. By: Yang Zhenlin (Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: It is well known that quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation of dynamic panel data (DPD) models with short panels depends on the assumptions on the initial values, and a wrong treatment of them will result in inconsistency and serious bias. The same issues apply to spatial DPD (SDPD) models with short panels. In this paper, a unifiedMestimation method is proposed for estimating the fixed-effects SDPD models containing three major types of spatial effects, namely spatial lag, spatial error and space-time lag. The method is free from the specification of the distribution of the initial observations and robust against nonnormality of the errors. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed M-estimator are established. A martingale difference representation of the underlying estimating functions is developed, which leads to an initial-condition free estimate of the variance of the M-estimators. Monte Carlo results show that the proposed methods have excellent finite sample performance.
    Keywords: Adjusted quasi score; Dynamic panels; Fixed effects; Initial-condition free estimation; Martingale difference; Spatial effects; Short panels.
    JEL: C10 C13 C21 C23 C15
    Date: 2015–12
  15. By: Olivier J. Wouters; Jonathan Cylus; Wei Yang; Sarah Thomson; Martin McKee
    Abstract: Medical savings accounts (MSAs) allow enrolees to withdraw money from earmarked funds to pay for health care. The accounts are usually accompanied by out-of-pocket payments and a high-deductible insurance plan. This article reviews the association of MSAs with efficiency, equity, and financial protection. We draw on evidence from four countries where MSAs play a significant role in the financing of health care: China, Singapore, South Africa, and the United States of America. The available evidence suggests that MSA schemes have generally been inefficient and inequitable and have not provided adequate financial protection. The impact of these schemes on long-term health-care costs is unclear. Policymakers and others proposing the expansion of MSAs should make explicit what they seek to achieve given the shortcomings of the accounts.
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2016–02–17
  16. By: Mohammad Nor, Karina; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: The growth of the financial sector such as, the stock market is usually found to be highly correlated with the growth of the real sector of an economy. It is important to examine the existence of the commodity-stock market nexus since there is expectation that commodity prices may influence stock market prices of commodity-based companies. Many studies have investigated this nexus most of them focused on either gold or oil, and there still persists a lack of consensus in the literature. Palm oil is the largest produced vegetable oil in the world. Traditionally, palm oil is an important component of soap, detergent, pharmaceutical products, cosmetics, fuels, food, cooking oil and oleo chemical products. Despite the growing importance of palm oil as an alternative source of cheap and clean energy, not much attention has been given to this “golden fruit”. This study is the first to investigate the dynamic relationship between spot and futures palm oil prices and stock market prices of a major palm oil producer. The methodology employed various unit root tests and Johansen’s cointegration test, followed by long-run structural modelling and vector error-correction modelling, variance decompositions, impulse response functions and persistence profile. The results showed that stock market prices lead spot and futures palm oil prices rather than vice versa for the Malaysian markets. In addition, the findings indicated that the performance of the stock market is dependent on fundamental macroeconomic variables. This has important policy implications in the regulation of the palm oil market whereby stock market performance and fundamental macroeconomic factors are key predictive inputs on the expected performance of the palm oil prices.
    Keywords: palm oil, spot price, futures price, stocks, Malaysia
    JEL: C22 C58 E44
    Date: 2016–01–15
  17. By: Rabah Arezki; Patrick Bolton; Sanjay Peters; Frederic Samama; Joseph Stiglitz
    Abstract: This paper investigates the emerging global landscape for public-private co-investments in infrastructure. The creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and other so-called “infrastructure investment platforms†are an attempt to tap into the pool of both public and private long-term savings in order to channel the latter into much needed infrastructure projects. This paper puts these new initiatives into perspective by critically reviewing the literature and experience with public private partnerships in infrastructure. It concludes by identifying the main challenges policy makers and other actors will need to confront going forward and to turn infrastructure into an asset class of its own.
    Keywords: Infrastructure;Asia;Private investments;Private sector;Savings;Public-private partnership;Privatization;European Investment Bank;World Bank;European Bank for Reconstruction and Development;Infrastructure, Public Private Partnership, Long-term Investors, Savings, and Investment Policy.
    Date: 2016–02–09
  18. By: Kim, Jinyoung (Korea University); Lee, Jong-Wha (Asiatic Research Institute, Korea University); Shin, Kwanho (Department of Economics, Korea University)
    Abstract: This paper presents a theoretical model that can analyze the impact of gender inequality on long-term economic growth. The model is calibrated to fit to Korean data. We find that gender equality policies that lower discrimination in the labor market or that increase the time spent by a father on child-rearing can contribute positively to female labor market participation and per capita income growth. The simulation results show that when the disparities between men and women at home and in the labor market are completely removed, the female labor force participation rate increases from 54.4% to 67.5%, and the growth rate in per capita income rises from 3.6% to 4.1% on average over a generation.
    Keywords: economic growth; female labor market participation; gender inequality; human capital accumulation; Republic of Korea
    JEL: E24 J13 J71 O53
    Date: 2016–01–27
  19. By: Ken Onishi (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Naoki Wakamori (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Chiyo Hashimoto (Japan Medical Association); Shun-ichiro Bessho (Faculty of Economics, Keio University)
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the social inefficiency that arises from the medical arms race in the context of MRI adoption. We construct a novel dataset that contains a complete list of medical institutions and includes their characteristics, MRI ownership and utilization information, and data on patient co-payments and medical institution reimbursements. Using the data, the paper builds and estimates a vertical industry model where MRI manufacturers sell MRIs and hospitals purchase MRIs ("free entry") in the upstream market, and hospitals provide medical services to patients in the downstream market. The estimated model allows us to evaluate potential policy interventions. Simulation results suggest that the current "laissez-faire" policy in Japan leads to excess MRI adoption, resulting in lower social welfare compared the regulation style used in France. Furthermore, softening competition in the upstream market via collusive agreement or mergers among upstream firms would increase social welfare substantially by reducing excess MRI adoption and mitigating the business-stealing effect in the downstream market. These findings shed light on the mechanism behind the social inefficiency of medical arms races and offer new insight into antitrust policies in industries with vertical structure.
  20. By: Marianne Bertrand (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago); Patricia Cortés (Questrom School of Business, Boston University); Claudia Olivetti (Boston College; NBER); Jessica Pan (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: In most of the developed world, skilled women marry at a lower rate than unskilled women. We document heterogeneity across countries in how the marriage gap for skilled women has evolved over time. As labor market opportunities for women have improved, the marriage gap has been growing in some countries but shrinking in others. We discuss a theoretical model in which the (negative) social attitudes towards working women might contribute towards the lower marriage rate of skilled women, and might also induce a non-linear relationship between their labor market prospects and their marriage outcomes. The model is suited to understand the dynamics of the marriage gap for skilled women over time within a country with set social attitudes towards working women. The model also delivers predictions about how the marriage gap for skilled women should react to changes in their labor market opportunities across countries with more or less conservative attitudes towards working women. We test the key predictions of this model in a panel of 23 developed countries, as well as in a panel of US states.
    Keywords: Marriage, Social Norms, Gender
    JEL: J11 J12 J16
    Date: 2016–02–03
  21. By: Olivier Gergaud (KEDGE BUSINESS SCHOOL); Morgane Laouénan (Sciences Po LIEPP); Etienne Wasmer (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: This paper describes a database of 1,243,776 notable people and 7,184,575 locations (Geolinks) associated with them throughout human history (3000BCE-2015AD). We first describe in details the various approaches and procedures adopted to extract the relevant information from their Wikipedia biographies and then analyze the database. Ten main facts emerge. 1. There has been an exponential growth over time of the database, with more than 60% of notable people still living in 2015, with the exception of a relative decline of the cohort born in the XVIIth century and a local minimum between 1645 and 1655. 2. The average lifespan has increased by 20 years, from 60 to 80 years, between the cohort born in 1400AD and the one born in 1900AD. 3. The share of women in the database follows a U-shape pattern, with a minimum in the XVIIth century and a maximum at 25% for the most recent cohorts. 4. The fraction of notable people in governance occupations has decreased while the fraction in occupations such as arts, literature media and sports has increased over the centuries; sports caught up to arts and literature for cohorts born in 1870 but remained at the same level until the 1950s cohorts; and eventually sports came to dominate the database after 1950. 5. The top 10 visible people born before 1890 are all non-American and have 10 different nationalities. Six out of the top 10 born after 1890 are instead U.S. born citizens. Since 1800, the share of people from Europe and the U.S. in the database declines, the number of people from Asia and the Southern Hemisphere grows to reach 20% of the database in 2000. Coincidentally, in 1637, the exact barycenter of the base was in the small village of Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises (Champagne Region in France), where Charles de Gaulle lived and passed away. Since the 1970s, the barycenter oscillates between Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. 6. The average distance between places of birth and death follows a U-shape pattern: the median distance was 316km before 500AD, 100km between 500 and 1500AD, and has risen continuously since then. The greatest mobility occurs between the age of 15 and 25. 7. Individuals with the highest levels of visibility tend to be more distant from their birth place, with a median distance of 785km for the top percentile as compared to 389km for the top decile and 176km overall. 8. In all occupations, there has been a rise in international mobility since 1960. The fraction of locations in a country different from the place of birth went from 15% in 1955 to 35% after 2000. 9. There is no positive association between the size of cities and the visibility of people measured at the end of their life. If anything, the correlation is negative. 10. Last and not least, we find a positive correlation between the contemporaneous number of entrepreneurs and the urban growth of the city in which they are located the following decades; more strikingly, the same is also true with the contemporaneous number or share of artists, positively affecting next decades city growth; instead, we find a zero or negative correlation between the contemporaneous share of “militaries, politicians and religious people” and urban growth in the following decades.
    Date: 2016–02
  22. By: Zhi Qiao (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: Stock market is a typical complex system with a great number of agents interacting with each other. Recent global financial crisis has shown the importance of understanding the dynamics of the stock market in details with a close look at its complexity. In the complexity science, two entropy approaches have been widely used, i.e. maximum entropy principle and multiscale entropy, and in this paper I define the generalized entropy of the market with fully consideration of the complex interactions among various agents. Following the first approach, the whole market, as an open system, always has an optimization process so that the generalized entropy of the whole stock market is maximal under the given constraints. And I have derived the nonlinear dynamic equation for the stock market is accordingly. Following the second approach, I have been able to identify certain market patterns in different scales for different financial quantities. Using empirical data from both Chinese and US stock markets, simulations, profound discussions and comparison are provided. Thus, a new framework for studying the dynamics of stock market is obtained, which will be very useful for the market investors, analysts and regulators.
    Keywords: stock market, dynamics, complex system, entropy, maximum entropy principle, multiscale entropy

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