nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2016‒03‒10
twenty-six papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Service liberalization in Lao PDR By Isono, Ikumo; Ishido, Hikari
  2. Assessing the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Volume 1: Market Access and Sectoral Issues By Kimberly Ann Elliott; Caroline Freund; Anna Gelpern; Cullen S. Hendrix; Gary Clyde Hufbauer; Barbara Kotschwar; Theodore H. Moran; Tyler Moran; Lindsay Oldenski; Sarah Oliver; Peter A. Petri; Michael G. Plummer
  3. The Effect of Preferential Trade Agreements on Pakistan’s Export Performance By Shaista Alam
  4. KEUANGAN PUBLIK ISLAM:Refleksi APBN dan Politik Anggaran di Indonesia By Jaelani, Aan
  5. Does consumer sentiment predict consumer spending in Malaysia? an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach By Mohd Haniff, NorAzza; Masih, Mansur
  6. Female Labor Force Participation in Asia: Indonesia Country Study By Schaner , Simone; Das, Smita
  8. Building a competitive city through innovation and global knowledge -- the case of Sino-Singapore Suzhou industrial park By Zeng,Zhihua
  9. The role of preschool quality in promoting child development : evidence from rural Indonesia By Brinkman,Sally Anne; Hasan,Amer; Jung,Haeil; Kinnell,Angela; Nakajima,Nozomi; Pradhan,Menno Prasad
  10. One Mandarin Benefits the Whole Clan: Hometown Favoritism in an Authoritarian Regime By Do, Quoc-Anh; Nguyen, Kieu-Trang; Tran, Anh
  11. Gender, headship, and the life cycle: Landownership in four Asian countries: By Sproule, Kathryn; Kieran, Caitlin; Quisumbing, Agnes R.; Doss, Cheryl
  12. A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam By Allan Dizioli; Jochen M. Schmittmann
  13. Nature or Nurture in Higher Education? Inter-generational Implications of the Vietnam-Era Lottery By Christofides, L.; Hoy, M.; Milla, J.; Stengos, T.
  14. Gender roles and food safety in 20 informal livestock and fish value chains: By Grace, Delia; Roesel, Kristina; Kang'ethe, Erastus; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Theis, Sophie
  15. The Impact of Internal Migration on Local Labour Markets in Thailand By Eliane El Badaoui; Eric Strobl; Frank Walsh
  16. Robust Measures of Core Inflation for Vietnam By Sanjay Kalra; Bui Thi Trang Dzung
  17. New Distribution Theory for the Estimation of Structural Break Point in Mean By Jiang Liang; Wang Xiaohu; Jun Yu
  18. A Fuzzy-Neural Performance Evaluation Approach of Selecting Outsource International Logistic Company By Chun Wei R. Lin; Yun-Jiuan Melody Parng; Hong-Yi Chen
  19. Rest in peace Moped, electric scooters are there By Minh Ha-Duong
  21. A Model of Gender Inequality and Economic Growth By Kim, Jinyoung; Lee, Jong-Wha; Shin, Kwanho
  22. Financial Distortions in China; A General Equilibrium Approach By Diego Anzoategui; Mali Chivakul; Wojciech Maliszewski
  23. A Brief History of Human Time: Exploring a database of 'notable people' By Olivier Gergaud; Morgane Laouénan; Etienne Wasmer
  24. Experiments on Lotteries for Shrouded and Bundled Goods: Investigating The Economics of Fukubukuro. By Chaikal Nuryakin; Alistair Munro
  25. Examining Processes in Research and Development at the Department of Science and Technology By Albert, Jose Ramon G.; Yasay, Donald B.; Gaspar, Raymond E.
  26. Papua New Guinea: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Isono, Ikumo; Ishido, Hikari
    Abstract: Service liberalization is emerging as a high-priority issue in various parts of the world for mega free trade agreements as well as national policy. Lao PDR is no exception. To examine the level of service liberalization in Lao PDR, we first compare the Hoekman Indices of Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam on the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS 8). Lao PDR has lower commitment in many subsectors. In particular, we list the sectors in which Lao PDR made a lower commitment than Cambodia and Vietnam in Mode 3 (supply of services through commercial establishments abroad). Second, a simulation analysis using the Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) from the Institute of Developing Economies at the Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO) reveals how service liberalization benefits the economic development of Lao PDR. The two analyses clearly reveal that it is essential for Lao PDR to promote further service liberalization since such liberalization will contribute to the country's development.
    Keywords: Laos, Service industries, Foreign investments, International trade, Lao PDR, Service, Simulation, AFAS
    JEL: F14 F15 F21
    Date: 2016–03
  2. By: Kimberly Ann Elliott (Center for Global Development); Caroline Freund (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Anna Gelpern (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Cullen S. Hendrix (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Barbara Kotschwar (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Theodore H. Moran (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Tyler Moran (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Lindsay Oldenski (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Sarah Oliver (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Peter A. Petri (Brandeis University, International Business School); Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University and East-West Center)
    Abstract: After five and a half years of negotiations, the Barack Obama administration concluded the most ambitious free trade deal of the postwar era on October 5, 2015. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a comprehensive accord that encompasses provisions on lowering barriers to trade and investment in goods and services and also covers critical new issues such as digital trade, state-owned enterprises, intellectual property rights, regulatory coherence, labor, and environment. Like all trade pacts, the TPP elicited praise and criticism from economic interests in the United States and the other 11 participating countries: Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. Together the 12 TPP members account for nearly 40 percent of global GDP. For the United States, the TPP countries account for 36 percent of US two-way trade in goods and services.
  3. By: Shaista Alam
    Abstract: The main objective of this study is to investigate empirically the effect of free or preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on Pakistan’s export performance (value of exports, number of exporters and number of products per exporter) during the period 2003 to 2010. The analysis covers the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and five bilateral PTAs with China, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Iran and Mauritius. Data from the World Bank Exporters Dynamics Database are analysed using fixed effect panel data techniques. The SAFTA and PTAs with China and Iran are associated with improved export performance in terms of value of exports and number of exporters. There is no evidence that the bilateral PTAs with Sri Lanka and Mauritius affect export performance of Pakistan. There is some evidence for product diversification under the PTAs with Malaysia and Mauritius, whereas with Sri Lanka and China product diversification declined.
    Keywords: Pakistan, Preferential Trade agreements, Free Trade Areas, Export Performance.
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Jaelani, Aan
    Abstract: The development policy in Indonesia to implement the human development paradigm should be able to put people as actors and regional economic development as a vehicle for the public welfare. However, the government's policy as outlined in the budget form precisely the opposite direction to a strategic role in the public welfare. The phenomenon of budget politics in the management of media budget to fulfill the political needs for the few and the political community. Management of the state budget in favor of a handful of people in the political-economic sphere and not pro-poor budgeting. A qualitative approach in analyzing the facts of budget management in Indonesia, this book concludes that the management of APBN using performance-based budget structure has not shown good governance performance by indicators: effectiveness, efficiency, transparency and accountability in the management of the budget.
    Keywords: APBN, budget policies, good governance, Islamic economic
    JEL: G02 G2 G28 G32 G38 H11 H12 H53 H6 H61 O1 O15 O2 O23 P4 P43 P48 Z1 Z18
    Date: 2014–09–20
  5. By: Mohd Haniff, NorAzza; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to determine the nature of relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending in the Malaysian context. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed to test this relationship, controlling for information in other financial and economic indicators. The stability of the functions is tested by CUSUM and CUSUMQ and no structural break was found. Overall, the results show that the Consumer Sentiment Index does not have any predictive value on consumer spending either in the shortrun or in the long-run, although a cointegrating relationship exists between the variables.
    Keywords: consumer sentiment, consumer spending, ARDL, Malaysia
    JEL: C22 C58 E2
    Date: 2016–01–20
  6. By: Schaner , Simone (Dartmouth College); Das, Smita (Harvard Kennedy School of Government)
    Abstract: This paper uses over 20 years of data from Indonesia’s labor force survey to study trends in female labor force participation (FLFP). We find that younger women in urban areas have increased their labor force participation in recent years, largely through wage employment, while younger women in rural areas have reduced their labor force participation, largely by opting out of informal, unpaid employment. We find evidence that wage jobs are more desirable than other types of work and that many women exit wage work due to family and childcare constraints. We outline a research-policy evaluation of female-centered vocational training and job placement services, which may be effective tools to increase FLFP.
    Keywords: gender; Indonesia; labor force participation
    JEL: J16 J22 O12
    Date: 2016–02–10
  7. By: Hanh Pham (University of Greenwich)
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether firms with foreign capital participation are more productive than domestically-owned firms in Vietnam; and whether the presence of firms with foreign capital has a crowding-out effect on domestically-owned firms. We utilize a rich dataset compiled by the Vietnamese General Statistical Office (GSO) from 2001–2010 and a dynamic panel data approach proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991) and Blundell and Bond (1998) to address the issue of endogeneity. We report that the share of foreign capital in firm equity has a positive and significant effect on productivity of foreign-owned firms in Vietnam. With respect to crowding-out effects, we identify opposing dynamics at work. On the one hand, we observe a firm-level crowding-out effect due to higher shares in turnover as the level of foreign capital increases. On the other hand, we observe an industry-level crowding-in effect as the share of both domestic and foreign-owned firms in turnover is higher when the industry-level of foreign capital intensity increases. Finally, we report that the crowding-in and crowding-out effects do not differ as the level of foreign capital share differs between firms and industries. The findings indicate that domestically-owned Vietnamese firms tend to lose market share to their foreign-owned competitors when they compete head to head; but they also tend to benefit from higher levels of foreign capital invested in their industry.
    Keywords: dynamic panel, foreign direct investment, market-stealing effect, productivity, Vietnamese enterprises
    JEL: A10 C13 D20
  8. By: Zeng,Zhihua
    Abstract: Special economic zones can be an effective instrument to promote industrialization if implemented properly in the right context. In China, starting in the 1980s, special economic zones were used as a testing ground for the country's transition from a planned to a market economy, and they are a prime example of China's pragmatic and experimental approach to reforms. One of the great special economic zone success stories in China is the Suzhou Industrial Park, a modern industrial township developed in the early 1990s through a Sino-Singapore partnership. It is successful not just in the economic sense, but also in terms of urban and social development in an eco-friendly way. One key lesson is that in a weak market environment, a facilitating and reform-oriented host government, coupled with foreign expertise and knowledge as well as a"whole value chain"approach can go a long way in developing urban-industry well-integrated special economic zones. This paper is intended to examine the success factors and key lessons of the Sino-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park, which can be useful for other developing countries.
    Keywords: E-Business,ICT Policy and Strategies,Emerging Markets,Environmental Economics&Policies,Tertiary Education
    Date: 2016–02–18
  9. By: Brinkman,Sally Anne; Hasan,Amer; Jung,Haeil; Kinnell,Angela; Nakajima,Nozomi; Pradhan,Menno Prasad
    Abstract: This paper reports on the quality of early childhood education in rural Indonesia. On average, the paper finds that centers created under the Indonesia Early Childhood Education and Development Project provide higher quality services than other types of preschools, as measured by a comprehensive instrument of preschool quality based on direct observation of classrooms in session (the Early Childhood Environment Rating Scale-Revised). The paper also examines the relationship between preschool quality and children's early development using three commonly applied measures of quality: (i) the Early Childhood Environment Rating Scale-Revised; (ii) teacher characteristics; and (iii) structural characteristics of preschool services, such as their size and amount of class time. First, correcting for measurement error using an instrumental variables approach, the findings suggest that preschool quality is a significant and meaningful positive predictor of children's developmental outcomes. Second, the findings for teacher characteristics are mixed, suggesting that policies focused solely on hiring teachers based on experience and training will be insufficient to improve children's learning. Instead, policies must address the quality of professional development activities for teachers. Third, the amount of class time spent in early childhood programs is a significant positive predictor of children?s developmental outcomes. This suggests that in rural Indonesia?where early childhood programs are relatively low dose?children are likely to benefit from attending longer hours of preschool, either playgroups or kindergartens. Lastly, the paper compares items in the Early Childhood Environment Rating Scale-Revised with Indonesia's national minimum service standards for early childhood education and development, and finds that the relationship between this alternative, context-appropriate measure of preschool quality and children?s development outcomes strongly corroborates the earlier conclusions.
    Keywords: Early Childhood Development,Education For All,Effective Schools and Teachers,Educational Sciences,Primary Education
    Date: 2016–01–05
  10. By: Do, Quoc-Anh; Nguyen, Kieu-Trang; Tran, Anh
    Abstract: We study patronage politics in authoritarian Vietnam, using an exhaustive panel of 603 ranking officials from 2000 to 2010 to estimate their promotions' impact on infrastructure in their hometowns of patrilineal ancestry. Native officials' promotions lead to a broad range of hometown infrastructure improvement. Hometown favoritism is pervasive across all ranks, even among officials without budget authority, except among elected legislators. Favors are narrowly targeted towards small communes that have no political power, and are strengthened with bad local governance and strong local family values. The evidence suggests a likely motive of social preferences for hometown.
    Keywords: authoritarian regime; distributive politics; favoritism; hometown; infrastructure; patronage; political connection
    JEL: D72 H72 O12
    Date: 2016–02
  11. By: Sproule, Kathryn; Kieran, Caitlin; Quisumbing, Agnes R.; Doss, Cheryl
    Abstract: Despite increasing evidence that households do not always function as one, policies regarding land and property rights are often formulated at the household level, assuming the primary adult male is the landowner. Because land policy reform has typically focused on changing household, rather than individual, rights to land, many of the data are collected at the household rather than the individual level. As a result of a combination of these factors, securing women’s land rights has remained a largely unaddressed issue by policymakers. So as to inform the formulation of policies and interventions to strengthen women’s land rights, this paper analyzes nationally representative data from Bangladesh, Tajikistan, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam to understand the processes by which men and women acquire land; the social, cultural, and legal institutions surrounding gender and landownership; and the role of individual and household characteristics influencing an individual’s ability to own land. Our findings that women own less land than do men across different types of household structures and that gender inequality increases with household landholdings suggests that women’s land rights need to be strengthened within marriage and protected should the marriage dissolve. Although the impacts of gender-sensitive land policy reform are not well researched, early findings on policy reforms such as joint titling in Vietnam show that policies to strengthen women’s land rights have the potential to improve women’s well-being as well as their children’s without detrimental effects on productivity. Our findings of gender inequalities in intrahousehold land allocation and of increasing inequality as households accumulate land suggest an agenda for future research and policy that strengthens the land rights of women, particularly within marriage.
    Keywords: gender, women, land ownership, assets, households, land rights, legal rights, land policies,
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Allan Dizioli; Jochen M. Schmittmann
    Abstract: The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to the baseline model, the optimal rule places a larger weight on output stabilization as the intermediate target to achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility. We analyze the dynamics of key macro variables under various shocks including external and domestic demand shocks and a lift-off of U.S. interest rates. We find that the optimal monetary policy rule delivers greater macroeconomic stability for Vietnam under the shock scenarios.
    Keywords: Vietnam;Monetary policy;Inflation targeting;Asia and Pacific;Bayesian Estimation, exchange rate, interest rates, monetary policy rule, central bank, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),
    Date: 2015–12–23
  13. By: Christofides, L. (University of Guelph); Hoy, M. (University of Guelph); Milla, J. (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium); Stengos, T. (University of Guelph)
    Abstract: It is evident that a strong positive correlation persists between the educational attainment of parents and that of their children in many, if not most, populations. This relationship may form an important part of the phenomenon of low social mobility as well as inefficiently low investment in human capital by youth who have parents with relatively low educational attainment. Is it a genetic inter-generational transmission of innate ability from parents to their children (i.e. nature) or is it the environment that the better educated parents provide for their children (i.e. nurture) that explains this positive relationship? Understanding the relative contributions of nature versus nurture is critical to the development of any social policy designed to increase social and economic mobility between generations. Separating the so-called nature and nurture effects of this relationship is a difficult task. We use the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery as a natural experiment to address the nature-nurture question. Attending university in order to avoid the draft created a cohort which included individuals who would not normally have attended post-secondary educational institutions. Comparing the educational attainment of children of this cohort to that of cohorts who attended university in “normal times” creates a natural experiment to test the relative importance of the nature or nurture explanations. Our findings provide evidence in support of the nurture argument.
    Keywords: Inter-generational mobility, higher education attendance
    JEL: I0
    Date: 2015–04–26
  14. By: Grace, Delia; Roesel, Kristina; Kang'ethe, Erastus; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Theis, Sophie
    Abstract: Food-borne disease remains a major public health challenge in Africa and Asia. Most of the foods that carry the highest pathogen risk are produced by smallholder farmers, marketed through the informal sector, and sold in wet markets. Given the significant role of informal markets in African and Asian food systems, attention is invested in understanding (1) how the people that participate in informal markets are exposed to risk, and (2) how they manage risk. We conduct a participatory risk analysis with a gender lens in 20 livestock and fish value chains to study whether gender-based differences influence risk of food-borne disease. We find that socially constructed gender roles are more important determinants of health risk than biological differences between men and women. Variations in risk exposure between men and women are mainly due to gender-based differences in occupational exposure, and secondarily to differences in consumption patterns. Women are important but under-recognized risk managers in the realms of food production, processing, selling, preparation, and consumption. Understanding the influence of gender on risk exposure and management is essential for improving food safety in informal markets.
    Keywords: gender, women, livestock, fish, food security, smallholders, markets, food systems, value chains,
    Date: 2015
  15. By: Eliane El Badaoui; Eric Strobl; Frank Walsh
    Date: 2016–02–18
  16. By: Sanjay Kalra; Bui Thi Trang Dzung
    Abstract: The paper develops robust measures of core inflation for Vietnam that can be used in policy making. These core inflation measures (CIMs) are based on an analytical evaluation of the inflation process in Vietnam, and use a filtering approach to narrow down potential measures that satisfy certain empirically desirable criteria. The paper finds that commonly used exclusion-based measures (EBMs) do not perform well against these empirical criteria; trimmed mean measures (TMMs) do better. Among TMMs, “one trim does not fit all periods†; periods of high and variable inflation require larger trims, and conversely. EVIEWS and MATLAB programs which accompany the paper allow quick, timely replication of CIMs as new data become available, making them valuable tools for the State Bank of Vietnam on an ongoing basis.
    Keywords: Inflation;Vietnam;Inflation measurement;Monetary policy;Interest rate increases;Central bank policy;Core inflation, Monetary Policy; Vietnam
    Date: 2016–02–10
  17. By: Jiang Liang (Singapore Management University); Wang Xiaohu (The Chinese University of Hong Kong); Jun Yu (Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: Based on the Girsanov theorem, this paper rst obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of structural break point in a continuous time model. The exact distribution is asymmetric and tri-modal, indicating that the estimator is seriously biased. These two properties are also found in the nite sample distribution of the least squares estimator of structural break point in the discrete time model. The paper then builds a continuous time approximation to the discrete time model and develops an in- ll asymptotic theory for the least squares estimator. The obtained in- ll asymptotic distribution is asymmetric and tri-modal and delivers good approximations to the nite sample distribution. In order to reduce the bias in the estimation of both the continuous time model and the discrete time model, a simulation-based method based on the indirect estima- tion approach is proposed. Monte Carlo studies show that the indirect estimation method achieves substantial bias reductions. However, since the binding function has a slope less than one, the variance of the indirect estimator is larger than that of the original estimator.
    Keywords: Structural break, Bias reduction, Indirect estimation, Exact distribution, In- ll asymptotics
    JEL: C11 C46
    Date: 2016–01
  18. By: Chun Wei R. Lin (YunTech, Taiwan, R.O.C.); Yun-Jiuan Melody Parng (Tayeh University); Hong-Yi Chen (Chaoyang University of Technology)
    Abstract: Owing to lack of confidence, the usage of domestic logistics services in the Asian region, e.g. Taiwanese companies, is comparatively lower than the use of international logistics companies. This paper develops an integrated fuzzy neural network performance evaluation model which is able to consider five key factors to evaluate their performance in the internationalization competence, namely, flexibility in organization structure, competitiveness in the global environment, versatility in service contents, sophistication in information technology application, and compliance in administrative regulations. The model successfully provides a transparent and systematic evaluation tool for industries to select appropriate logistic companies for international logistics services.
    Keywords: Performance Evalution, International Logistics, Outsourcing, Fuzzy Neural Network
    JEL: C00 C45 F23
  19. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi)
    Abstract: In the last decade two-wheeler electric vehicles have been taking over the streets of Asian capitals, to the point that it is time to declare the gas moped commercially dead. Rest in peace
    Keywords: transport, véhicule électrique, ville durable, qualité de l'air, bruit
    Date: 2016–02–12
  20. By: Cenk Gokce ADAS (Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics); Bibigul Tussupova (Ministry of National Economy,)
    Abstract: This study set out to examine impact of the global financial crisis on the stock markets returns of China, Japan, India, and USA through E-GARCH model and further it investigates the nature of volatility spillovers between stock indices during the global financial meltdown using Granger Causality test. Daily stock prices are used for the period from 6th of January, 2006 to 22nd of April 2011. The main findings are as follows; in all stock markets high volatility and setback on the daily returns exist due to the financial crisis. Further the global financial crisis less affected China’s stock exchange than the other stock markets whereas it influenced USA stock markets in large extent. Also stock returns volatility get moderated in the major Asian Countries stock markets after post crisis period but it has been remained in USA stock exchanges. Granger causality test shows that after the onset of the financial crisis, the USA stock markets have bidirectional influences on each other, but didn’t receive any volatility spillover from major Asian Countries stock markets. Indian stock market receives volatility spillover from all the stock markets. Japanese stock market receives volatility spillover only from USA stock markets. Chinese stock exchange doesn’t receive any volatility spillover from stock exchanges which examined in this paper.
    Keywords: Volatility Spillover; Financial crisis; China, Japan, India and USA Stock Markets; E-GARCH; Granger Causality.
    JEL: C58 G01
  21. By: Kim, Jinyoung (Korea University); Lee, Jong-Wha (Asiatic Research Institute, Korea University); Shin, Kwanho (Department of Economics, Korea University)
    Abstract: This paper introduces a model of gender inequality and economic growth that focuses on the determination of women’s time allocation among market production, home production, child rearing, and child education. The theoretical model is based on Agénor (2012), but differs in several important dimensions. The model is calibrated using microlevel data of Asian economies, and numerous policy experiments are conducted to investigate how various aspects of gender inequality are related to the growth performance of the economy. The analysis shows that improving gender equality can contribute significantly to economic growth by changing females’ time allocation and promoting accumulation of human capital. We find that if gender inequality is completely removed, aggregate income will be about 6.6% and 14.5% higher than the benchmark economy after one and two generations, respectively, while corresponding per capita income will be higher by 30.6% and 71.1% in the hypothetical gender-equality economy. This is because fertility and population decrease as women participate more in the labor market.
    Keywords: economic growth; gender inequality; human capital accumulation; labor market; overlapping generations model
    JEL: E24 E60 J13 J71
    Date: 2016–02–19
  22. By: Diego Anzoategui; Mali Chivakul; Wojciech Maliszewski
    Abstract: Widespread implicit guarantees and interest ceilings were major distortions in China’s financial system, contributing to a misallocation of resources. We analyze the impact of removing such frictions in a general equilibrium setting. The results show that comprehensive reforms generate better outcomes than partial ones: removing the deposit rate ceiling alone increases output, but the efficiency of capital allocation does not improve. Removing implicit guarantees improves output through lower cost of capital for private companies and better resource allocation.
    Keywords: Asia and Pacific;China;China, People's Republic of;Financial distortions, interest rate liberalization, implicit government guarantees, interest, guarantees, deposit, implicit guarantees, deposits, General, Asia including Middle East, Government Policy and Regulation,
    Date: 2015–12–24
  23. By: Olivier Gergaud (KEDGE BUSINESS SCHOOL); Morgane Laouénan (Sciences Po LIEPP); Etienne Wasmer (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: This paper describes a database of 1,243,776 notable people and 7,184,575 locations (Geolinks) associated with them throughout human history (3000BCE-2015AD). We first describe in details the various approaches and procedures adopted to extract the relevant information from their Wikipedia biographies and then analyze the database. Ten main facts emerge. 1. There has been an exponential growth over time of the database, with more than 60% of notable people still living in 2015, with the exception of a relative decline of the cohort born in the XVIIth century and a local minimum between 1645 and 1655. 2. The average lifespan has increased by 20 years, from 60 to 80 years, between the cohort born in 1400AD and the one born in 1900AD. 3. The share of women in the database follows a U-shape pattern, with a minimum in the XVIIth century and a maximum at 25% for the most recent cohorts. 4. The fraction of notable people in governance occupations has decreased while the fraction in occupations such as arts, literature media and sports has increased over the centuries; sports caught up to arts and literature for cohorts born in 1870 but remained at the same level until the 1950s cohorts; and eventually sports came to dominate the database after 1950. 5. The top 10 visible people born before 1890 are all non-American and have 10 different nationalities. Six out of the top 10 born after 1890 are instead U.S. born citizens. Since 1800, the share of people from Europe and the U.S. in the database declines, the number of people from Asia and the Southern Hemisphere grows to reach 20% of the database in 2000. Coincidentally, in 1637, the exact barycenter of the base was in the small village of Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises (Champagne Region in France), where Charles de Gaulle lived and passed away. Since the 1970s, the barycenter oscillates between Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. 6. The average distance between places of birth and death follows a U-shape pattern: the median distance was 316km before 500AD, 100km between 500 and 1500AD, and has risen continuously since then. The greatest mobility occurs between the age of 15 and 25. 7. Individuals with the highest levels of visibility tend to be more distant from their birth place, with a median distance of 785km for the top percentile as compared to 389km for the top decile and 176km overall. 8. In all occupations, there has been a rise in international mobility since 1960. The fraction of locations in a country different from the place of birth went from 15% in 1955 to 35% after 2000. 9. There is no positive association between the size of cities and the visibility of people measured at the end of their life. If anything, the correlation is negative. 10. Last and not least, we find a positive correlation between the contemporaneous number of entrepreneurs and the urban growth of the city in which they are located the following decades; more strikingly, the same is also true with the contemporaneous number or share of artists, positively affecting next decades city growth; instead, we find a zero or negative correlation between the contemporaneous share of “militaries, politicians and religious people” and urban growth in the following decades.
    Date: 2016–02
  24. By: Chaikal Nuryakin (Faculty of Economics, Universitas Indonesia); Alistair Munro (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)
    Abstract: Fukubukuro (or lucky bag) is a familiar institution in Japan and many other countries used by retailers for disposing of unwanted stock during the New Year sales. Two features of the institution are important: First, in fukubukuro, stores bundle goods of related items into sealed bags rather than selling items separately. Secondly, while general information about the contents is provided, details of brands and specifications are concealed creating a lottery for the purchaser. Motivated by the fukubukuro example and the lack of evidence on risk attitudes in lotteries involving goods, we conduct a laboratory experiment and follow-up survey to investigate preferences for lotteries in which the outcomes are bundled or unbundled goods. In general, we find that risk has a negative effect on subjects’ WTP for a product lottery. Nevertheless, a minority of subjects are risk-seeking and value the lottery more highly than the highest valued individual product. Conversely, we do not find much evidence of an uncertainty effect. Although subjects’ WTP responses to bundled product lotteries are less heterogeneous than their responses to single product lotteries, there is no significant advantage of selling bundled product lotteries over single product lotteries in relation to subjects’ risk preferences. We follow up the experiment with a hypothetical choice questionnaire in which we confront subjects with three options for a variety of goods: a certain product, its substitute, and a product lottery. We find that subjects who are riskseeking or have less product knowledge and familiarity are more likely to choose a product lottery. Furthermore, subjects are more likely to choose a product lottery when the choice task consists of complex products rather than simple products. We speculate that risk seeking and less-informed subjects may find a lottery between products to be a direct and simple way to solve their buying decision tasks.
    Date: 2016–02
  25. By: Albert, Jose Ramon G.; Yasay, Donald B.; Gaspar, Raymond E.
    Abstract: Research and development (R&D) activities have long been recognized as one of the critical components to improve a country's productivity and competitiveness as well as people's well-being. Notable advancements in agriculture (to develop new variety of crops), health (to improve nutrition and combat various diseases), industry (to develop new products and services), as well as in climate change adaptation and mitigation are products of R&D. The Department of Science and Technology (DOST), chiefly through sectoral councils and R&D performers, has been successfully undertaking or supporting a considerable share of R&D activities in the country while noting limited resources available. However, there is a need to improve the thrust for R&D, which may require the conduct of an R&D summit to finalize the scope of the government's R&D medium- and long-term agenda. The DOST also needs to reexamine the distribution of grant-in-aid funds to R&D institutes and identify breakdowns of R&D funding for basic research, applied research, and development. The DOST may need to pilot test scientific methods, such as Analytic Hierarchy Processes, for selection of R&D proposals for funding by its sectoral councils.
    Keywords: Philippines, impact evaluation, research and development (R&D), Department of Science and Technology (DOST), R&D institutes, grant-in-aid (GIA) fund, R&D activities
    Date: 2016
  26. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of financial access and inclusion indicators, related causal factors, and both current and possible reform priorities for on Papua New Guinea (PNG). The paper presents indicators of financial market depth, development, and access for PNG and compares PNG’s performance against that of other countries in the region, at similar levels of development, and beyond. It provides an overview of country-specific challenges facing PNG related to financial inclusion that helps to explain its performance, as well as possible reform priorities in the near term. The government’s current initiatives aimed at promoting financial sector development and inclusion and their preliminary results are also discussed.
    Keywords: Asia and Pacific;Papua New Guinea;bank, banks, services, banking, financial services
    Date: 2015–11–18

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