nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2016‒02‒04
33 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Energy Efficiency Developments and Potential Energy Savings in the Greater Mekong Subregion By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  2. Indonesia's ‘Great Power’ Aspirations: A Critical View By Greg Fealy and Hugh White
  3. How Do Exports and Imports Affect the Use of Free Trade Agreements? Firm-level Survey Evidence from Southeast Asia By Lili Yan ING; Shujiro URATA; Yoshifumi FUKUNAGA
  4. Asia Bond Monitor - June 2015 By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  5. Tigers Trapped: Tracing the Middle-income Trap through the East and Southeast Asian Experience By Veerayooth Kanchoochat; Patarapong Intarakumnerd
  6. The industrial policy experience of the electronics industry in Malaysia By Rajah Rasiah
  7. The New Nationalism in Indonesia By Edward Aspinall
  8. Anticipating the Struggle against Everyday Impunity in Myanmar through Accounts from Bangladesh and Thailand By Nick Cheesman, Bina D'Costa and Tyrell Haberkorn
  9. Assessing Indonesia's Normative Influence: Wishful Thinking or Hidden Strength By Mathew Davies and Susan Harris-Rimmer
  10. The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates By Peter A. Petri; Michael G. Plummer
  11. Long-term food demand in Asia and implications for Australian agriculture By Penm, Jammie
  12. A Quantitative Text Analysis of the Minutes from the Meetings in Public Involvement: A Case of a Bridge Project in Cambodia By Kamijo, Tetsuya; Huang, Guangwei
  13. Prospects for enhancing energy security in Asia and the Pacific through regional trade By Joong-Wan Cho; Rajan Sudesh Ratna; Vivian Leung Shi Min
  14. Inside Myanmar's Turbulent Transformation By Nicholas Farrelly and Chit Win
  15. The Mood in Melanesia after the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands By George Carter and Stewart Firth
  16. Determinants of Economic Growth in South East Asia: An Analysis for the First Decade of the Third Millennium By Markus Brueckner; Paitoon Kraipornsak
  17. No-Bubble Condition: Model-Free Tests in Housing Markets By Matteo Maggiori; Stefano Giglio; Johannes Stroebel
  18. Old-age financial protection in Malaysia : challenges and options By Holzmann, Robert
  19. Food vs feed: The livestock equation in food security By Noor, Yudi Guntara
  20. Bribery, Corruption and Bureaucratic Hassle: Evidence from Myanmar By Aaron Soans; Masato Abe
  21. Infrastructure Investment, Private Finance, and Institutional Investors: Asia from a Global Perspective By Inderst, Georg
  22. Financial Education Policies in Asia and the Pacific By Flore-Anne Messy; Chiara Monticone
  23. Using CGE modelling for Thailand’s policymaking in the context of regionalism and other trade policy options   By Wannaphong Durongkaveroj; Luca Parisotto
  24. Contingent liabilities risk management : a credit risk analysis framework for sovereign guarantees and on-lending?country experiences from Colombia, Indonesia, Sweden, and Turkey By Bachmair,Fritz Florian
  25. Strategic Choices in Myanmar's Transition and Myanmar's National Security Policies By Trevor Wilson
  26. Sustainable Energy Access Planning: A Framework By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  27. Identifying periods of financial stress in Asian currencies: the role of high frequency financial market data By Dungey, Mardi; Matei, Marius; Treepongkaruna, Sirimon
  28. Gender Equality Results Case Study - Nepal: Community-Based Water Supply Sanitation Sector Project By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  29. How Fast Do Equilibrium Payoff Sets Converge in Repeated Games? By Johannes Horner; Satoru Takahashi
  30. Resources, experience and perseverance in entrepreneurs' perceived likelihood of success in an emerging economy By Quan Hoang Vuong; Thu Hang Do; Thu Trang Vuong
  31. Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries? By Channarith Meng; Roberto Leon-Gonzalez
  32. Wealth Inequality and Financial Development:Revisiting the Symmetry Breaking Mechanism By Zhang Haiping
  33. Trade Integration, Income Divergence, and Global Imbalances By Zhang Haiping

  1. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This report was produced under the technical assistance project Promoting Renewable Energy, Clean Fuels, and Energy Efficiency in the Greater Mekong Subregion (TA 7679). It reports on energy efficiency targets and developments in five countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The GMS countries envisage substantial energy efficiency savings over the next 15 to 20 years, with overall energy efficiency savings amounting to almost 60 million tons of oil equivalent annually by 2030. Most GMS governments have established plans for reaching these targets and have implemented policy, regulatory, and program measures to lower energy intensity and achieve energy efficiency. GMS countries project that their energy needs will double or triple over the next 15 years and greater energy efficiency offers a win–win public–private sector partnership for reducing unsustainable reliance on high-carbon (coal and oil) fuels.
    Keywords: energy efficiency developments in the gms, energy efficiency, energy savings, greater mekong subregion, gms, asian development bank, cambodia, lao pdr, myanmar, thailand, viet nam, 3rd asean energy outlook, eria, targets and projected energy savings, energy efficiency policy frameworks in the gms, energy elasticity, energy intensity, food-energy-water nexus, energy efficiency performance targets, energy efficiency program, energy efficiency initiatives, cambodia ministry of mines and energy, lao pdr ministry of energy and mines, myanmar ministry of energy, thailand department of alternative energy development and efficiency, electricity regulatory authority of viet nam lahmeyer internationa gmbh, climate change, energy demand forecast, energy efficiency by industry, business as usual vs energy efficiency
    Date: 2015–07
  2. By: Greg Fealy and Hugh White
    Abstract: Indonesia is readying itself for a return to a diplomatic assertiveness not seen since the early 1960s. Partly, this reflects the approach of 0050 resident Joko Widodo and his government, but it also reflects growing aspirations among the wider circles of Indonesia's elites for their country to act as, and be acknowledged as a ‘big country’ – negara besar. This constitutes a significant shift from the traditions of low-key diplomacy of the New Order and Reformasi eras. Several factors are pushing this shift. Indonesia's growing economic weight will, over time, provide more of the foundations of national power than it has had hitherto. The changing regional strategic and political order will make it harder for Indonesia to take its place in Asia for granted and to assume that its intentional interests can be protected primarily through ASEAN. And domestically the trend to rising nationalism will provide political incentives to greater assertiveness. On the other hand, Indonesia still has big hurdles to overcome before it can act as an effective major power in Asia. Its economic trajectory remains uncertain, its military is weak, its diplomatic capacities are underdeveloped, and it lacks a clearly articulated set of policy objectives to pursue. So, it remains to be seen whether Indonesia's aspirations to major power status will be realised.
    Keywords: Indonesia, President Joko Widodo, foreign policy, defence policy, Asian Regional Order
    Date: 2016–02–02
  3. By: Lili Yan ING (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) and University of Indonesia); Shujiro URATA (ERIA and Waseda University); Yoshifumi FUKUNAGA (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: Based on profit estimations, findings from a firm-level survey of 630 manufacturing firms across Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries conducted in 2013 showed that a 1 percent increase in the share of exports in total sales will increase the probability of use of free trade agreements (FTAs) by 0.2 percent, whereas a 1 percent increase in the share of imports in total inputs will reduce the probability of use of FTAs by 0.4 percent. Results from locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) show that the use of FTAs is tilde-shaped and negative-shaped as a function of exports and imports, respectively.
    Keywords: Free Trade Agreement, ASEAN, Regional integration, FTA Utilisation
    JEL: F14 F15 F16 F23
    Date: 2016–01
  4. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This publication reviews recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets along with the outlook, risks, and policy options. It covers the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus the People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and the Republic of Korea.
    Keywords: bonds, local currency, foreign currency, bond yields, emerging East Asia, bonds outstanding, bond issuance, bond market, foreign investor holdings, People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, China, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam, credit spreads, government bonds, corporate bonds, bond financing, renewable energy, green bonds, policy, regulatory developments, project bonds, financing
    Date: 2015–06
  5. By: Veerayooth Kanchoochat; Patarapong Intarakumnerd
    Abstract: The “middle-income trap†has recently become a powerful buzzword in the international development community. Despite using the same phrase, the existing literature varies considerably. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it represents one of the earliest attempts at reviewing this burgeoning area of research. Based on differences in theoretical underpinnings and policy implications, the literature is classified into three groups: (1) getting education and institutions right; (2) changing export compositions by following comparative advantage; and (3) industrial upgrading by the proactive state. Second, it examines the validity of these three bodies of literature through catching-up experiences of selected newly industrializing economies in East and Southeast Asia. It argues that each strand falls into a different trap: the causal, the historical, and the practical. In discussing these three traps, this paper provides six propositions based theoretically on old-school development economics and innovation literature.
    Keywords: middle-income trap, Asian Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs), state intervention, industrial policy, structural transformation
    JEL: O14 O25 O53
    Date: 2014–02
  6. By: Rajah Rasiah
    Abstract: Despite the use of industrial policies to stimulate economic growth by several successful developers, latecomers have faced mixed experiences. Hence, this paper analyses the industrial policy experience of the electronics industry in Malaysia. A blend of institutions have guided technological upgrading in the industry, especially in the state of Penang. Smooth coordination between the state government, multinational corporations, national firms, and the federal government helped stimulate technological upgrading in Penang. However, the lack of a critical mass of human capital and support from research and development organizations has discouraged the transformation of firms in the industry to the globe.s technology frontier.
    Keywords: industrial policy, institutions, electronics industry, Malaysia
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Edward Aspinall
    Abstract: A new nationalist mood is visible in Indonesia, expressed in increasingly bellicose rejection of alleged foreign interference in Indonesia's affairs and in demands for greater international recognition of Indonesia's power and status. This new mood has been visible for several years, but became particularly marked during the 2014 presidential election and under the new Joko Widodo administration. This article analyses Indonesia's new nationalism, especially as manifested in economic, cultural and territorial spheres, noting both continuities with past episodes, and novel features. A chief novelty is contemporary nationalism's markedly non-ideological and non-intellectual form; continuity is visible in its discursive style, with many contemporary nationalists anachronistically reproducing tropes rooted in earlier periods. The article concludes by identifying forces driving the contemporary resurgence of nationalism, notably the effects of democratisation as well as deeper feelings of insecurity about Indonesia's achievements.
    Keywords: nationalism, foreign relations, Indonesian politics, democratisation, economic nationalism
    Date: 2016–02–02
  8. By: Nick Cheesman, Bina D'Costa and Tyrell Haberkorn
    Abstract: Work done internationally to address impunity concentrates on removing blanket amnesties and establishing commissions of inquiry into past atrocities. Everyday impunity—the impossibility of bringing state officers to account for routinized violent crimes against other individuals—gets less attention, even though its effects on public life are insidious. Studying the 2014 killing of a journalist, we identify modes for the production of everyday impunity in Myanmar that emerge from earlier periods of unmediated military rule but that today are coming to resemble practices in neighbouring countries. Accounts from Bangladesh and Thailand reveal how impunity can persist in new political conditions, producing insecurity and hampering efforts for more inclusive forms of government. We close by urging scholars to remain attentive to their responsibilities in the face of impunity, calling on them not to participate in projects that have the effect of concealing violent crime by state officers, and denying victims justice.
    Keywords: impunity, Myanmar, Burma, Bangladesh, Thailand
    Date: 2016–02–01
  9. By: Mathew Davies and Susan Harris-Rimmer
    Abstract: This article takes a critical stance on Indonesia's normative influence. Whilst normative influence does help explain why Indonesia matters beyond the widespread consensus that it is weak, we also feel that its influence is often overstated. We examine three components of Indonesia's normative influence, modelling, diplomacy and civil society activism. In each component we assess the strengths and weaknesses of Indonesia and identify where wishful thinking predominates over dispassionate analysis. We conclude by arguing that the Jokowi approach to foreign policy destabilises the traditional make-up of normative influence and, if it is pursued into the future, will lead to a re-composition of that influence.
    Keywords: Indonesia, norms, ASEAN, civil society, pro-people's diplomacy
    Date: 2016–02–02
  10. By: Peter A. Petri (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University)
    Abstract: This Working Paper estimates the effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) using a comprehensive, quantitative trade model, updating results reported in Petri, Plummer, and Zhai (2012) with recent data and information from the agreement. The new estimates suggest that the TPP will increase annual real incomes in the United States by $131 billion, or 0.5 percent of GDP, and annual exports by $357 billion, or 9.1 percent of exports, over baseline projections by 2030, when the agreement is nearly fully implemented. Annual income gains by 2030 will be $492 billion for the world. While the United States will be the largest beneficiary of the TPP in absolute terms, the agreement will generate substantial gains for Japan, Malaysia, and Vietnam as well, and solid benefits for other members. The agreement will raise US wages but is not projected to change US employment levels; it will slightly increase "job churn" (movements of jobs between firms) and impose adjustment costs on some workers.
    Keywords: Trans-Pacific Partnership, Free Trade Agreements
    JEL: F12 F13 F14 F15 F17
    Date: 2016–01
  11. By: Penm, Jammie
    Abstract: Food consumption in Asia is projected to increase significantly toward 2050, with consumption patterns shifting from traditional diets oriented around starchy staples to more varied diets with larger quantities of higher-value and higher-protein foods. Although food production in Asia is also expected to increase, it will not be able to meet the growth in Asian consumption of many food products. In Japan and the Republic of Korea, growth in food consumption is projected to be limited through to 2050 because of projected declining populations and modest future income growth. The most significant rise in food demand is expected to occur in China toward 2050. The rise in food consumption in China will be characterised by significantly higher demand by urban consumers for high-value foods such as dairy products, beef, sheep and goat meat, fruit and vegetables. For rural consumers in China, growth in consumption of high-value commodities is also projected, but the increases on average are expected to be smaller than from urban households. India is one of the largest consumers and producers of grain in Asia and has a self-sufficiency policy. By 2050, India is projected to become a significant net importer of fruit, vegetables and dairy products. For the ASEAN (Association of SE Asian Nations) member states as a whole, imports of wheat, beef and dairy products are projected to rise toward 2050. Vegetable and fruit consumption in the ASEAN region is projected to nearly double by 2050. Australia needs to remain competitive to meet the opportunities provided by greater Asian demand for food. Apart from the role governments will play in reducing market barriers, contributions from the private sector will also be important. Strong working relationships with supermarkets and hypermarkets in Asia will facilitate food exports.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2014–08
  12. By: Kamijo, Tetsuya; Huang, Guangwei
    Abstract: Previous studies of public involvement in environmental impact assessment were mainly analyzed qualitatively, but quantitative text analysis is developing and being applied to social research. The study examined public involvement by applying quantitative text analysis to the minutes from the meetings of a bridge project in Cambodia. Results of the analysis showed that the discussion about the environmental impacts and alternatives analysis was limited. The study concluded that good and understandable meeting materials, facilitation of discussions, and meetings at an early stage could be key components to improve public involvement, and that good public involvement could rest upon environmental and social awareness of project proponents. Finally the quantitative text analysis showed a valid analysis tool for public involvement. Further research is required to analyze public involvement using quantitative text analysis, focusing on high- or low-interest items to local people, alternatives analysis, and comparisons to other projects.
    Keywords: public involvement , environmental impact assessment , quantitative text analysis , minutes from the meetings
    Date: 2016–01–26
  13. By: Joong-Wan Cho (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)); Rajan Sudesh Ratna (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)); Vivian Leung Shi Min (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP))
    Abstract: Growing demand for raw materials and the expansion of the productive capacity of emerging economies have exacerbated the region’s high resource dependence, especially in energy, such as fossil fuels. A growth in energy demand, coupled with the high price volatility and dependence on fossil fuels, has made efforts for energy security more challenging than before. The Asia-Pacific region as a whole has increased its share of global commodity imports, across all sectors (minerals and metals, fuels and agriculture) over the last five years (2009 to 2013), from 26% to 30%, based on nominal values. Growth in energy demand, coupled with the increasing price volatility and dependence on fossil fuels, has made efforts for energy security more challenging than before. The Asia-Pacific economies hold vast amounts of fossil and non-fossil energy resources. As a region, it is a net exporter of coal, natural gas (through the pipeline), and electricity, but a net importer of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Owing to accelerated levels of economic development, region’s demand continued to grow. This increased demand is not being met with a sufficient rise in production, leading to reduced exports and increased import demand. Despite holding vast coal and natural gas reserves, demand for fossil fuel in Asia and the Pacific is increasingly being met by imports with long term effect on its trade balance. To enhance energy security, which is essential for inclusive and sustainable growth, countries of Asia-Pacific will have to strengthen energy cooperation, build regional connectivity, and invest in adequate infrastructure. Growing import dependency coupled with emergent regionalism has certainly enhanced the prospects for regional energy cooperation and integration of the energy sector, which can enhance the possibility of regional energy security. However, due to its diverse nature, such cooperation is confined to national initiatives rather than at a pan Asia-Pacific or sub-regional levels. The paper examines the prospects for enhanced energy security through regional energy trade and integration by exploring the case of the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA). The paper concludes by stating that regional cooperation for achieving energy security collectively is a viable alternative to traditional individual or bilateral attempts and that the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement is an ideal vehicle for providing energy security through enhanced trade due to tariff concessions to be offered on energy products and also through expansion of its membership to the energy supplying countries.
    Keywords: energy, energy security, fossil fuels, Asia and the Pacific
    JEL: M13 M15 M21 M37 O31 O33
    Date: 2015–09
  14. By: Nicholas Farrelly and Chit Win
    Abstract: Since constitutional government began in 2011, Myanmar's shift from an entrenched military regime has drawn wide interest from policy analysts. This article explores the context of Myanmar's fragile democratisation from the ground up. It explains two interlocking characteristics: the fundamentally novel character of reform and the endurance of age-old conundrums. For longer term success, ensuring that Myanmar has adequate capacity—at institutional and human levels—to manage its turbulent transformation will not be easy or cheap. This will also require a move away from stale rhetoric about non-disintegration, national solidarity and the perpetuation of sovereignty. The next step is to develop a culture of adherence to free and fair elections, followed by a wide-ranging democratisation of how post-dictatorship politics is conceived.
    Keywords: democratisation, dictatorship, militaries, transition, Myanmar
    Date: 2016–02–01
  15. By: George Carter and Stewart Firth
    Abstract: Melanesia is becoming a region of many partners, expanding diplomatic options and a new sense of independence. The wider context of the new Melanesian assertiveness is one in which China is a rising power and Indonesia is forging closer links with the western Pacific. The impetus to Fiji's new assertiveness arose from the diplomatic isolation imposed upon it by Australia and New Zealand after the 2006 military coup. Papua New Guinea's new confidence is founded upon its liquefied natural gas boom. Even Solomon Islands is expanding diplomatic connections. Regionally, the change can be seen in the Melanesian Spearhead Group, which now counts Indonesia among its members, and in Fiji's push for its own vision of Pacific regionalism. Australia and New Zealand nevertheless remain the indispensable countries in the region. Australia's commitment to Melanesia remains constant but without the bold initiatives and interventionist enthusiasm of the early RAMSI years.
    Keywords: Melanesia, regionalism, West Papua, Indonesia, diplomacy
    Date: 2016–02–01
  16. By: Markus Brueckner; Paitoon Kraipornsak
    Abstract: This paper examines determinants of economic growth in South East Asia during the first decade of the third millennium -- the 2000s. Building on the growth model initially developed by Loayza et al. (2005), and augmented by Araujo et al. (2014), estimates are obtained for the impact that transitional convergence, structural reforms, stabilization policies, and external conditions had on economic growth in the South East Asian region during the 2000s. The most important driver of economic growth was transitional convergence, accounting for about one half of the region's growth. Improvements in structural reforms and favorable external conditions accounted for about one quarter of growth. Stabilization policies had a negligible impact.
    Keywords: Health capital, lifecycle health risk, incomplete insurance markets, social insurance, optimal policy, dynamic general equilibrium with idiosyncratic shocks
    Date: 2016–01
  17. By: Matteo Maggiori; Stefano Giglio; Johannes Stroebel
    Abstract: We test for the existence of housing bubbles associated with a failure of the transversality condition that requires the present value of payments occurring infinitely far in the future to be zero. The most prominent such bubble is the classic rational bubble. We study housing markets in the U.K. and Singapore, where residential property ownership takes the form of either leaseholds or freeholds. Leaseholds are finite-maturity, pre-paid, and tradable ownership contracts with maturities often exceeding 700 years. Freeholds are infinite-maturity ownership contracts. The price difference between leaseholds with extremely-long maturities and freeholds reflects the present value of a claim to the freehold after leasehold expiry, and is thus a direct empirical measure of the transversality condition. We estimate this price difference, and find no evidence of failures of the transversality condition in housing markets in the U.K. and Singapore, even during periods when a sizeable bubble was regularly thought to be present.
  18. By: Holzmann, Robert
    Abstract: This policy paper presents key findings and suggestions on Malaysia’s old-age financial protection system within the context of the country’s broader social security framework. The trademark policy approach focusing on job creation instead of expanding social security programs served the country well to move it quickly to a high-middle income level. But to join the club of high-income countries in a sustainable manner may require the country to review its approach to social security, including the way old-age income support is provided, and to address the main current weaknesses: fragmentation across economic sectors, lack of an enabling political environment, incomplete benefit coverage, low mandated savings level, and inadequate disbursement options given the challenges of projected population aging and socioeconomic shifts. To address the old-age financial protection challenge, the paper outlines two key options for Malaysia's employees provident fund, the country's central pension pillar: (i) moving from a mere retirement savings investment fund to a fully-fledged pension fund that offers some minimum annuities; or (ii) more radically, moving the benefits toward a non-financial defined contribution scheme with the fund’s resources used as its major reserve fund. Whatever approach is considered, the reform discourse will benefit from changes in the overall governance structure of social security and from a comprehensive research agenda that offers an evidence based decision making.
    Date: 2014–11–01
  19. By: Noor, Yudi Guntara
    Abstract: The world’s population of 7.2 billion is projected to increase and reach 9.6 billion by 2050. FAO-predicted demand for food, fuel and fibre will thus increase 60% by the year 2050. Demand for beef and milk will increase significantly, and create global concern over the level of feed required to meet the projected levels of demand. Indonesia is the fourth largest populated country in the world with almost 240 million people in 2010 and a predicted population of about 320 million in 2050. The high population, together with economic growth and increased public demand for high quality protein sources such as beef and milk will result in a significant increase in demand for these food products. Increasing livestock and dairy production to secure food availability to feed the population is a high national priority. Need for food, feed and fuel, along with factors including climate change and massive land clearance for housing and industries, have encouraged Indonesia to improve the competitiveness and efficiency of its livestock and dairy production systems. Recent public awareness of ethical and environmental issues in animal production means these matters require greater attention to avoid public distrust in these industries. As feed and feeding contribute to more than 70% of the cost of livestock or dairy production, utilising alternative cheaper feeds which do not compete with food is a commercial necessity. Fortunately, there are by-products of agro-industries in Indonesia that can be used as alternative feeds: for example, cassava meal, rice straw, copra meal and palm oil byproducts such as palm kernel cake and palm fronds. The nutritive value of these by-products can be improved by physical or biological treatment. Among these, palm oil by-products have the highest potential as feed alternatives because Indonesia is one of the largest palm oil producing countries in the world. Consequently, integrating livestock, dairy and palm oil plantation systems is seen as a preferable way forward to deliver better efficiency and zero-waste agricultural systems and add more value for the local communities. Also grazing management under palm oil plantations may improve the cost-efficiency of cattle breeding systems.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, Livestock Production/Industries,
    Date: 2014–08
  20. By: Aaron Soans (OECD Development Centre); Masato Abe (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP))
    Abstract: Corruption has been found to be the most severe obstacle to business operations, according to a recent survey of over 3,000 firms in Myanmar. This paper sets out to understand the structure of corruption through an econometric analysis of this survey. It finds that firms with higher ‘ability to pay’ (proxied by sales revenue and employee growth) are more likely to pay bribes. While firms with lower ‘refusal power’ (i.e those dependent on bureaucratic permissions to export and import) are more likely to find corruption to be an obstacle. A distinct but related question is whether bribes act as ‘efficiency grease’ by allowing firms to circumvent red tape. No evidence is found to support this hypothesis, in fact firms that pay bribes report greater bureaucratic hassle compared to firms that do not. This result fits in more closely with the view that red tape could be used to extract bribes from firms.
    Keywords: bribery, corruption, bureuacratic, myanmar
    JEL: M13 M15 M21 M37 O31 O33
    Date: 2015–08
  21. By: Inderst, Georg (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This study evaluates infrastructure investment and finance in Asia from a global perspective. It provides an overview on infrastructure needs and the various sources of private finance, globally and within Asia, and creates a “bigger picture” for the demand and supply of capital for infrastructure by using a simple framework, i.e., percentages of gross domestic product.
    Keywords: infrastructure investment; project finance; public-pricate partnerships
    JEL: G23 G28 G31 H54 O16 O18
    Date: 2016–01–25
  22. By: Flore-Anne Messy; Chiara Monticone
    Abstract: A number of factors and trends have driven the development of financial education policies in Asia and the Pacific in recent years. In some countries and economies, the development of financial education policies has been mostly spurred by high levels of financial exclusion, both among households and small businesses, in a context of low financial literacy, low general education and high poverty. In others, current or anticipated population ageing is also playing an important role. Various countries and economies in the region have engaged in the development of financial education and financial consumer protection policy responses to help address these issues. This report provides an overview of the recent trends and developments on financial education in Asia and the Pacific. It describes the status of national strategies for financial education and highlights financial education programmes targeting different audiences and through a variety of delivery channels. Based on the analysis of these initiatives, the report offers policy and practical suggestions for policy makers and other stakeholders.
    Keywords: Asia, South East Asia, financial education
    JEL: D14 D18 G21 G28 I28 O53 O56
    Date: 2016–01–19
  23. By: Wannaphong Durongkaveroj (Faculty of Economics, Ramkhamhaeng University); Luca Parisotto (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP))
    Abstract: The advantages of using CGE models for trade policy analysis are clear, and although there are some significant challenges to their use, a careful application of such models can provide an invaluable asset to policymakers and researchers alike. It must however be remembered that CGE models remain illustrative simplifications of what a real economy looks like; hence the results must be understood as such. Nevertheless, if integrated into a thoughtful and encompassing analytical approach, and reinforced with the use of other tools such as indices and empirical analyses, CGE models are powerful tools that can significantly strengthen Thailand’s trade policy during this critical juncture along its development path.
    Keywords: CGE, regionalism, trade policy, thailand, policy making
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2015–12
  24. By: Bachmair,Fritz Florian
    Abstract: Sovereign credit guarantees and government on-lending can catalyze private sector investment and fulfill specific policy objectives. However, contingent liabilities stemming from guarantees and contingent assets stemming from on-lending expose governments to risk. Prudent risk management, including risk analysis and measurement, can help identify and mitigate these risks. This paper proposes a four-step structure for analyzing and measuring credit risk: (i) defining key characteristics to determine the choice of a risk analysis approach; (ii) analyzing risk drivers; (iii) quantifying risks; and (iv) applying risk analyses and quantification to the design of risk management tools. This structure is based on an assessment of approaches discussed in academia and applied in practice. The paper demonstrates how the four steps of credit risk management are applied in Colombia, Sweden, and Turkey. It also discusses how the proposed framework is applied in Indonesia as it develops a credit risk management framework for sovereign guarantees. Country experiences show that although sovereign risk managers can draw on insights from credit risk management in the private sector, academic literature, and practices in other countries, approaches to risk management need to be highly context-specific. Key differentiating factors include characteristics of the guarantee and on-lending portfolio, the sovereign?s specific risk exposure, the availability of market information and data, and resources and capacity in the public sector. Developing a sound risk analysis and measurement framework requires significant investments in resources, capacity building, and time. Governments should view this process as iterative and long-term.
    Keywords: Debt Markets,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Banks&Banking Reform,Access to Finance,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress
    Date: 2016–01–22
  25. By: Trevor Wilson
    Abstract: Since 2011, Myanmar's leaders have concentrated on ensuring the success of their overall political transition, given the expectations created after the ‘Arab Spring’ of 2011–2012. Not surprisingly, designing a new national security policy was less a priority than achieving ‘peace’; national security was viewed as a matter of continuity rather than transition. Moreover, many of the reformist objectives of the political transition were not applied to the evolution of a new national security strategy or to the challenge of adjusting national security policies. Indeed, many historically unacceptable military practices—human rights abuses, targeting of civilian populations in insurgency areas and acting outside the law in confiscating land, labour and resources—continued. While this different approach to national security reflected ingrained sensitivity on the part of Myanmar's leadership, reluctance to expose national security policy to scrutiny and determination to retain political control, they are not necessarily unreceptive to overseas experiences.
    Date: 2016–02–02
  26. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: Sustainable energy access planning, unlike traditional energy planning, gives primary importance to the energy demand of both poor and nonpoor households, the need to make cleaner energy services more affordable to the poor, the costs of both supply-side and demand-side access options, and the sustainability of technology and resource options. As such, this type of energy planning contributes to low carbon development and achievement of Sustainable Energy for All objectives. This report presents a framework for sustainable energy access planning that planners and policy makers can use to design cost-effective clean energy supply systems that both poor and nonpoor can sustainably access to meet at least the minimum amount of energy for their basic needs. The report discusses the multidimensional assessments involved in this type of planning, as well as their interlinkages and implementation issues.
    Keywords: sustainable energy access, clean energy, energy for all, energy poverty, energy planning, energy costs, Nepal
    Date: 2015–06
  27. By: Dungey, Mardi (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Matei, Marius (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Treepongkaruna, Sirimon
    Abstract: We formally test that a process containing Brownian motion and jumps characterises the high frequency observations for eight Asian currencies against the US dollar. By harnessing the changes in behaviour of the data during periods of stress we develop a new indicator to detect stress dates in currency markets. We find that the global share of currency trade for each currency relates to the frequency of stress days detected. We align the stress dates to economic and political conditions using central bank and IMF reports on developments in currency markets.
    Date: 2014–09
  28. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Keywords: nepal, water supply services improvement, increase water supply coverage, sanitation facilities improvement, latrines construction, WSS facilities improvement, rural water supply and sanitation, RWSS, women participation, women, dalits, ethnic minorities, health improvement, adb gender case studies, loan 2008, 32249-013
    Date: 2015–06
  29. By: Johannes Horner (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Satoru Takahashi (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: We provide tight bounds on the rate of convergence of the equilibrium payoff sets for repeated games under both perfect and imperfect public monitoring. The distance between the equilibrium payoff set and its limit vanishes at rate (1 - delta)^{1/2} under perfect monitoring, and at rate (1 - delta)^{1/4} under imperfect monitoring. For strictly individually rational payoff vectors, these rates improve to 0 (i.e., all strictly individually rational payoff vectors are exactly achieved as equilibrium payoffs for delta high enough) and (1 - delta)^{1/2}, respectively.
    Keywords: Repeated games, Rates of convergence
    JEL: C72 C73
  30. By: Quan Hoang Vuong; Thu Hang Do; Thu Trang Vuong
    Abstract: This paper introduces new results obtained from a statistical investigation into a3071-observation data set collected from a Vietnamese nationwideentrepreneurship survey. From established relationships, such factors aspreparedness, financial resources and participation in social networks areconfirmed to have significant effects on entrepreneurial decisions. Entrepreneurs,both financially constrained and unconstrained, who have a business plan tend tostart their entrepreneurial ventures earlier. Also, financial constraints have aprofound impact on the entrepreneurial decisions. When perceiving the likelihoodof success to be high, an entrepreneur shows the tendency for prompt action onbusiness ideas. But when seeing the risk of prolonging the waiting time to firstrevenue, a prospective entrepreneur would be more likely to wait for morefavorable conditions despite the vagueness of "favorable".Additionally, empirical computations indicate that there is a 41.3% probabilitythat an extant entrepreneur who is generating revenue sees high chance ofsuccess. Past work and entrepreneurial experiences also have positive impactson both the entrepreneurial decisions and perceived chance of success.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship; new venture; transitional economies
    JEL: L26 M13 P27
    Date: 2016–01–18
  31. By: Channarith Meng (National Bank of Cambodia); Roberto Leon-Gonzalez (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies; Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA, Italy))
    Abstract: While earlier studies focus on credit booms in advanced and emerging market countries, this paper examines the characteristics and determinants of credit booms in developing countries. The results find that credit booms in developing countries are less likely to be associated with systemic banking crises. Rather, they are more likely to be the result of financial deepening than of dangerous buildups of financial risks; the prevention of credit booms in developing countries may thus be associated with higher opportunity costs in terms of foregone growth opportunities. Random effect probit and tobit regressions find some evidence that size of financial system and favorable macroeconomic conditions are among the determinants of credit booms. Although monetary and fiscal policies do not help in preventing credit booms in developing countries, we find that prudential regulations and supervision can play a much more effective role in preventing “bad” booms, while incurring substantially lower costs. Although “bad” booms are hard to identify ahead of time, the duration and size of booms, as well as the level of credit aggregates, appear to be useful indicators in determining them.
  32. By: Zhang Haiping (Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: In an overlapping generations model with financial frictions and the fixed investment size requirement, Matsuyama (2004, Econometrica) shows that, in the absence of integrated financial markets, the world economy has a unique steady state, which is symmetric and stable in the sense that inherently identical countries converge to the same income level in the long run, regardless of their initial income level; financial globalization may \break" this symmetric steady state and lead to cross-country income polarization. He calls this phenomenon \symmetry breaking" and points out that financial underdevelopment is one of the necessary conditions. We revisit this result by introducing wealth inequality and the minimum in- vestment requirement into his framework. Increasing wealth inequality strictly reduces the possibility of symmetry breaking; if wealth inequality exceeds a threshold value, symmetry breaking does not arise at all, regardless of the level of financial development. Thus, wealth inequality is an equally important factor as financial development in determining the possibility of symmetry breaking. We also address some practical issues in this framework, e.g., the conditions of financial integration, the domestic financial crisis and capital controls, and the world interest rate shocks and income volatility
    Keywords: Financial Frictions, Financial Globalization, Minimum Investment Requirements, Symmetry Breaking, Wealth Inequality
    JEL: E44 F41
    Date: 2015–09
  33. By: Zhang Haiping (Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: We embed financial frictions and sector-specific minimum investment requirements (MIR) in a two-factor, two-sector, overlapping-generation model and show that whether trade integration leads to convergence of the income levels among member states depends on their level of financial development. It helps reconcile the mixed empirical evidence on trade integration and income dynamics in different groups of countries from the institutional perspective. In the recent decades, trade globalization has allowed developed countries to specialize towards the high-MIR, high-return production stages and tasks through international fragmentation of production and global sourcing. In our model, the "sectors" can be interpreted broadly as production stages and tasks. Free trade may induce the more financially developed countries to specialize fully in the high-MIR, high-return "sector", which fundamentally changes the credit market condition and the way the interest rate is determined. In this case, free trade may amplify rather than eliminate the global imbalances (a phenomenon of the large capital ows from developing to developed countries observed in the recent years), opposite to the findings of Antras and Caballero (2009, Journal of Political Economy). This way, we argue that trade and financial integration should be analyzed jointly and trade driven structural changes may reshape our understanding of capital fl ows.
    Keywords: Financial development, financial integration, minimum investment requirements, symmetry breaking, trade integration, wealth inequality
    JEL: F11 F41
    Date: 2015–12

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