nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2015‒11‒07
23 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. The Interrelated Dynamics of Multiple Borrowing and Over-indebtedness among Rural Households in Thailand and Vietnam By Chichaibelu, Bezawit; Waibel, Hermann
  2. Oil palm expansion among smallholder farmers in Sumatra, Indonesia By Euler, Michael; Schwarze, Stefan; Siregar, Hermanto; Qaim, Matin
  3. Economic Development, Food Demand and the Consequences for Agricultural Resource Requirements (Indonesia) By Briggs, Adam; Chowdury, Shyamal
  4. Overcoming Isolation: An Exploration of the Rapid Growth in Pulse Exports from Myanmar By Boughton, Duncan; Haggblade, Steve; Kham, L; Kongabaugh, Steve; Thaung, Myo
  5. Supermarkets in Malyasia's Food Supply Chain: Influence on Traditional Supply Chain and Implications for Contract Farmers By Chin, Denise
  6. Evaluation of IPM adoption and financial instruments to reduce pesticide use in Thai agriculture using econometrics and agent-based modeling By Grovermann, Christian; Schreinemachers, Pepijn; Berger, Thomas
  7. Ties of Visegrád countries with East Asia – trade and investment By Andrea Elteto; Agnes Szunomar
  8. Intrastate Ethnic Conflicts and External State Support of Ethnic Minorities in East Asia: Theoretical Perspectives By Elena D. Soboleva
  9. The Educational Achievement of Pupils with Immigrant and Native Mothers: Evidence from Taiwan By Lin, Eric S.; Lu, Yu-Lung
  10. Spillover effects of market-based instruments under revenue uncertainty in Jambi Province, Indonesia By Djanibekov, Utkur; Villamor, Grace
  11. Moral Incentives: Experimental Evidence from Repayments of an Islamic Credit Card By Leonardo Bursztyn; Stefano Fiorin; Daniel Gottlieb; Martin Kanz
  12. Towards 2030 UN Agenda on Sustainable Development Goals: Technical Challenges in Measuring Gender Inequality in Asia Pacific. By Aggarwal, Bhavya; Chakraborty, Lekha
  13. How Does Aid For Trade Contribute To ASEAN`s Trading? By Shwe Sin Oo; Masaru Ichihashi
  14. Misión Colombia envejece: cifras, retos y recomendaciones By Fedesarrollo; Fundación Saldarriaga Concha; Leonardo Villar; Soraya Montoya González; Susana Martínez-Restrepo; Lina María González-Ballesteros
  15. Evidence From a Policy Reform in Indonesia By Olsson, Ola; Valsecchi, Michele
  16. Innovation, competition, and productivity growth: Evidence on the impact of growth in Asia's maize seed sector By Spielman, David; Kennedy, Adam
  17. Does Trade Make Asian Children Healthier? By Vishalkumar Jani; Dholakia, Ravindra H.
  18. Non-Tariff Measures: Not All that Bad By OLIVIER CADOT; Lili Yan Ing
  19. Vote buying or (political) business (cycles) as usual? By Toke Aidt; Zareh Asatryan; Lusine Badalyan; Friedrich Heinemann
  20. How Fragile Is Turkey: A Comparative Study on the Social Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies By Pınar Gebeşoğlu
  21. Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Global Agricultural Non-CO2 Emissions By Beach, Robert; Creason, Jared; Ohrel, Sara; Ragnauth, Shaun; Ogle, Stephen; Li, Changsheng; Salas, William
  22. Corporate Shareholdings and the Liquidity of Malaysian Stocks: Investor Heterogeneity, Trading Account Types and the Underlying Channels By Lim, Kian-Ping; Thian, Tze-Chung; Hooy, Chee-Wooi
  23. Incentives and Social Preferences: Experimental Evidence from a Seemingly Inefficienct Traditional Labor Contract By Goto, Jun; Sawada, Yasuyuki; Aida, Takeshi; Aoyagi, Keitaro

  1. By: Chichaibelu, Bezawit; Waibel, Hermann
    Abstract: Does multiple borrowing lead micro-borrowers into over-indebtednes? Do over-indebted micro-borrowers take loans to refinance existing loans that are ultimately unpayable and get trapped in a vicious circle of debt? Using a longitudinal household survey data, this study addresses such questions by examining the dynamic interdependency between over-indebtedness and multiple borrowing in the context of micro-borrowers in Thailand and Vietnam. Specifically, the trues state dependence and cross-state dependence effects of over-indebtedness and multiple borrowing are tested using the dynamic random effect bivariate probit model while controlling for observed and unobserved household heterogeneity. Results suggest that taking multiple borrowing simultaneously does positively influence household's risk of becoming over-indebted in Thailand, while in Vietnam it has no significant influence on household's risk of over-indebtedness. Although households reported of taking multiple loans to repay old debts, the empirical results do not support the premises that over-indebtedness reinforces households to refinance ultimately unpayable debts and trap households into a perpetual debt cycle.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics,
    Date: 2015
  2. By: Euler, Michael; Schwarze, Stefan; Siregar, Hermanto; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: Many tropical regions experience a rapid expansion of oil palm, causing massive land use changes and raising serious environmental and social concerns. Indonesia has recently become the largest palm oil producer worldwide. While much of the production in Indonesia comes from large-scale plantations, independently operating smallholders are increasing in importance and may dominate production in the future. In order to control the process of land use change, the micro level factors influencing smallholder decisions need to be better understood. We use data from a survey of farm households in Sumatra and a duration model to analyze the patterns and dynamics of oil palm adoption among smallholders. In addition to farm and household characteristics, village level factors determine oil palm adoption significantly. Independent smallholders adopt oil palm especially in those villages that also have contracts and out-grower schemes, leading to a regional path-dependency of former government policies.
    Keywords: Farm Management, International Development,
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Briggs, Adam; Chowdury, Shyamal
    Abstract: We analyse food demand patterns of Indonesian households from a resource intensity perspective, and quantify the impact of changed demand patterns on the use of three major resource inputs – fossil fuel, land and water – in agricultural production. Using Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) data, 13 major food items (which constitute 70% of food expenditure) are categorised into low, moderate and high resource intensity, and income elasticity and Engel curves are estimated for the period from 1997 to 2007. Our results show that income growth in Indonesia is associated with demand patterns that are more resource intensive. By 2007, per capita requirements of fossil fuel, land and water increased by 42.7% (3.13 MJ), 44.9% (1.24 m2) and 50.4% (2.1 KL) respectively relative to 1997. The results imply that at least for Indonesia, changed food demand patterns resulting from economic development will increase the demand for natural resources substantially.
    Keywords: Demand analysis, Economic Development, Natural Resource Management, Indonesia, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, D1, O13, Q18,
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Boughton, Duncan; Haggblade, Steve; Kham, L; Kongabaugh, Steve; Thaung, Myo
    Abstract: Pulse exports from Myanmar have grown into a $1 billion export industry in the 25 years since liberalization. As the first major agricultural sector to be liberalized in 1988, pulses offered uniquely attractive returns to both smallholder farmers and traders in the early years following government decontrol. By 1991, pulses had surpassed rice to become Myanmar’s most valuable agricultural export. This paper examines how private sector traders in Myanmar managed this exceptional feat, despite financial sanctions, acute limitations on all forms of communication and information flows and with the weakest rural infrastructure in South East Asia --- all hangovers from Myanmar’s three decades of international isolation and underinvestment in agriculture. Yet critical barriers remain that could eventually undermine Myanmar’s global competitiveness. Field interviews with key value chain actors in Myanmar between February and August 2014 form the basis for this market diagnostic.
    Keywords: International Development, International Relations/Trade, O130, P230, Q170, Q180,
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Chin, Denise
    Abstract: Urbanization, growing incomes and changing diets have facilitated the supermarket revolution in Malaysia. Contract farming has been used as a tool to incorporate farmers into the modern supermarket supply chain, mediated by Malaysia’s Federal Agricultural Marketing Authority (FAMA). This study examines the influence of supermarkets on Malaysia’s traditional food supply chain, and the emergence of the supermarket-farmer relationship with smallholder farmers through contract farming, as a result of the new supply chain. Based on an extensive literature review and interviews with FAMA and supermarket representatives, this study finds that the supermarket dominance is present but the relationship between supermarkets and farmers is distant and indirect. While FAMA’s contract farming is a useful effort to increase farmer involvement in the supermarket supply chain, there has been little participation from supermarkets due to their efficient network of suppliers that can adhere to their high quantity and quality demands better than small farmers can.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Grovermann, Christian; Schreinemachers, Pepijn; Berger, Thomas
    Abstract: Agricultural commercialization in Asia has led to an increased dependence on synthetic pesticides, especially for high-value fruit and vegetable crops. The present study uses the multi-agent modeling software MPMAS to ex-ante assess the impact of different pesticide use reduction strategies. The model is parameterized with data from an intensive and diverse production systems in the mountainous north of Thailand, where the adoption of cash crops has been accompanied by very high levels of pesticide use. The objective of this study is to compare different policy interventions in terms of their impact on pesticide use, farm incomes and land use. The adoption of integrated pest management (IPM) is assessed in combination with tax instruments and with adoption incentives, such as bio-pesticide subsidies and price premiums. The results show that a smart policy package can reduce pesticide use by up to 34% over five years without income trade-offs for farm households.
    Keywords: Agent-based modeling, ex-ante assessment, innovation diffusion, pesticide policy, integrated pest management, Crop Production/Industries,
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Andrea Elteto (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences); Agnes Szunomar (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: As a consequence of the European recession, interest of Central European firms has increased towards Asian markets. Trade and investment relations seem to have intensified between the four Visegrád countries and East Asia. This paper aims to analyse trends of foreign direct investment and the development, geographical and commodity structure of the mutual trade. Our paper also briefly outlines the economic policy of the given countries for the further development of Visegrád-Asian relations. The applied method is the statistical analysis of Eurostat and National Bank data as well as Chinese statistics. Our main findings are the following: first, trade between the Visegrád region and East Asia is largely influenced by multinational companies in global value chains; second, these networks have interlinked the two regions increasingly strongly in the past years; third, the pattern and intensity of connection to multinational networks vary among Visegrád countries. Based on these findings we propose an economic policy that – apart from the support of local small firms – considers the efficient participation in global value chains.
    Keywords: Visegrad countries, East Asia, trade relations, global value chains, foreign direct investment
    JEL: F1 F23 F43
    Date: 2015–08
  8. By: Elena D. Soboleva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Most states in East Asia (Northeast and Southeast Asia) are ethnically diverse and have experienced or are currently experiencing ethnic conflict. Although, intrastate ethnic conflicts are in the domain of domestic politics, they often become “internationalized”, when an external state becomes involved. How can the difference in the behaviour of East Asian states regarding intrastate ethnic conflicts in other states of the region be explained? Scholars of international relations (IR) have come up with a variety of explanatory factors for a state’s decision whether to intervene. This paper presents an overview of the major theories and evaluates their explanatory power for IR in East Asia after the end of Cold War. The results presented in this paper lay the groundwork for the future qualitative empirical research.
    Keywords: ethnic conflicts, intervention, East Asia, international relations, theories of international relations
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Lin, Eric S. (National Tsing Hua University); Lu, Yu-Lung (National Tsing Hua University)
    Abstract: This paper takes advantage of the Taiwan Assessment of Student Achievement data set to empirically evaluate whether the test score differentials between pupils with immigrant and native mothers are substantial across subjects, grades and years. Our results show that there exist test score differentials between the two groups after controlling for the students' individual characteristics and family background. The Chinese, Math and English subjects exhibit larger test score gaps relative to Science and Society. We also find that the academic gaps between native students and pupils with mothers from Southeast Asian countries tend to widen, while the students' performance is about the same as that for native students if their mothers are from mainland China, confirming that the language proficiency of immigrant mothers significantly affects pupils' learning. Our empirical results may suggest that remedial teaching (or an equivalent preferential policy) for the lower-grade pupils with immigrant mothers might be required to create a fair environment for learning, and such a policy should take the nationality of those foreign mothers into account.
    Keywords: academic performance, immigrants, foreign spouse
    JEL: A2 I2
    Date: 2015–10
  10. By: Djanibekov, Utkur; Villamor, Grace
    Abstract: In the case study of Indonesia we investigated possible effects of different types of market-based instruments (MBI), including rewards and taxes, on larger farmer (landlord) that adopts MBI and spillovers on working on his land under sharecropping arrangement another farmer (tenant). Multi-period expected value model with Monte Carlo simulation and Brownian motion was used. Findings showed that high prices of MBI would increase incomes of landlord but would reduce incomes of tenant through reduced working activities at landlord due to less cultivation of labor demanding crops. In most cases the incomes of landlord would be the under the MBI scenarios than in the business-as-usual scenario. If uncertainty in revenues is considered then MBI would reduce variability in incomes of both landlord and tenant. Rewards for increasing supply rather than taxation for reducing provision of ecosystem services resulted in higher rural incomes and provision of ecosystem services.
    Keywords: International Development, Marketing,
    Date: 2015
  11. By: Leonardo Bursztyn; Stefano Fiorin; Daniel Gottlieb; Martin Kanz
    Abstract: We study the role of morality in the decision to repay debts. Using a field experiment with a large Islamic bank in Indonesia, we find that moral appeals strongly increase credit card repayments. In our setting, all of the bank’s late-paying credit card customers receive a basic reminder to repay their debt one day after they miss the payment due date. In addition, two days before the end of a ten-day grace period, clients in a treatment group also receive a text message that quotes an Islamic religious text stating that “non-repayment of debts by someone who is able to repay is an injustice.” This message increases the share of customers meeting their minimum payments by nearly 20%. By contrast, sending either a simple reminder or an Islamic quote that is unrelated to debt repayment has no effect on the share of customers making the minimum payment. Clients also respond more strongly to this moral appeal than to substantial financial incentives: receiving the religious message increases repayments by more than offering a cash rebate equivalent to 50% of the minimum repayment. Finally, we find that removing religious aspects from the quote does not change its effectiveness, suggesting that the moral appeal of the message does not necessarily rely on its religious connotation.
    JEL: D14 G02 G21 Z10 Z12
    Date: 2015–10
  12. By: Aggarwal, Bhavya (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)
    Abstract: Against the backdrop of UN 2030 Sustainable Development agenda, this paper analyses the measurement issues in gender-based indices constructed by UNDP and suggests alternatives for choice of variables, functional form and weights. Despite their relevance, the composite indices like Gender Development Index (GDI) and Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) have been criticized for their technical flaws and later replaced with Gender Inequality Index (GII). While GII conceptually reflects the loss in achievement due to inequality between men and women in three dimensions - health, empowerment and labour force participation - we argue that assumptions and choice of variables to capture these dimensions remain inadequate and erroneous, resulting in the partial capture of gender inequalities. Since the dimensions used for GII are different from HDI, we cannot say that a higher value of GII represents loss in HDI due to gender inequalities. However, it could be debatable whether using GII over GDI (GDI is equally distributed equivalent of HDI which measures gender gap in three dimensions of human development - health, education and command over economic resources) is advantageous, one of the main drawbacks of using GII is that along with the inequality indicators of women vis-à-vis men, it also contains absolute indicators that are defined specifically for women - like maternal mortality rate (MMR) and adolescent fertility rate (AFR). The corresponding values for men for these absolute variables are taken as 1 which is unrealistic and leads to overestimation of the gap between women and men's health standards. The technical challenge remains - interpreting the index by combining women-specific indicators with gender-disaggregated indicators. GII is a partial construct as it has not captured many significant dimensions of gender inequality. Though this requires a data revolution, we tried to reconstruct GII in the context of Asia-Pacific using three scenarios: (i) improving the set of variables incorporating unpaid care work, pay gap, intrahousehold decision making, exposure to knowledge networks and feminisation of governance at local levels; (ii) constructing a decomposed index to specify the direction of gender gaps and (iii) an alternative index using Principal Components Index (PCI) for assigning weights. The choice of countries under the three scenarios is constrained by paucity of data. The results revealed that UNDP GII overestimates the gap between the two genders and using women-specific indicators leads to a fallacious estimation of gender inequality. The estimates are illustrative. The implication of the results broadly suggests a return to GDI for capturing gender development, with an improvised set of choices and variables.
    Keywords: Gender Inequality ; Unpaid Work ; Human Development ; Composite Indicator
    JEL: D63 J16 J31 O15
    Date: 2015–10
  13. By: Shwe Sin Oo (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University); Masaru Ichihashi (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University)
    Abstract: The aid for trade program is about helping developing countries to improve their trade abilities. With many developing countries, Asia is one of the largest aids for trade recipients and plays an essential role in world trade. In Asia, ASEAN countries are active aid participant countries and also participate in world trade. This study uses an aid-augmented gravity model to find the relationship between bilateral aid for trade and bilateral trade between recipient ASEAN countries and OECD DAC donors. We consecutively calculate and compare the effects of the overall aid for trade program on trade of ASEAN aid for trade recipients (altogether and recipients grouped by income level) by using data on 8 ASEAN aid recipient countries and 23 OECD DAC donor countries in 1991?2009. We also calculate the effect of disaggregated aid on recipient exports or imports in 2002?2009. We find that, overall, aid for trade has a positive and significant effect on either exports or imports of recipient countries. However, when differentiating recipients by income level, aid for trade is working well only for lower-middle-incomegroups. Aid for economic infrastructure and technical assistance on trade policy and regulation has a positive and significant effect on recipient exports or imports.
    Keywords: data cleaning;
  14. By: Fedesarrollo; Fundación Saldarriaga Concha; Leonardo Villar; Soraya Montoya González; Susana Martínez-Restrepo; Lina María González-Ballesteros
    Abstract: Hoy en Colombia hay más viejos que nunca antes: 5,2 millones de personas (el 10,8% de la población) con 60 años o más, y para 2050 calculamos que serán 14,1 millones (el 23% de la población). Por esta razón, la labor que nos fue encomendada por los fundadores de la Fundación Saldarriaga Concha, de trabajar por el bienestar y la inclusión de las personas mayores, se hace aún más vigente. La Misión Colombia Envejece es un trabajo conjunto entre la Fundación y Fedesarrollo, y su objetivo es dar a conocer la situación del envejecimiento de su población y los retos que esto plantea para el país. La Misión es el resultado de una investigación y aprendizaje conjuntos, de entrevistas con personas y organizaciones de la sociedad civil, y de llegar desde lo teórico y lo empírico a importantes conclusiones para nuestro país y su población que envejece. Este proyecto de investigación empezó a gestarse hace varios años. En el 2012, como directora de la Fundación Saldarriaga Concha, y luego de haber investigado, discutido y trabajado en diferentes espacios el tema del envejecimiento y sus repercusiones sociales y económicas, tuvimos encuentros fructíferos con la Academia de Ciencias de Estados Unidos. Con algunos de sus miembros compartimos información, en especial una publicada por las Academias Nacionales de Ciencias de China, Indonesia, India, Japón y Estados Unidos sobre los retos que enfrenta Asia por el envejecimiento de su población. Regresé a Colombia con la firme convicción de que nuestro país tenía mucho que aprender de ese estudio y de otros similares, con el entendimiento de que Latinoamérica tenía la obligación de cuestionarse sobre las condiciones del envejecimiento de su población, y además, que Colombia debía analizar el envejecimiento de las personas en un contexto de construcción de paz.
    Keywords: Envejecimiento, Envejecimiento de la Población, Vejez, Misión Colombia Envejece, Protección Social, Colombia
    Date: 2015–09–28
  15. By: Olsson, Ola (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Valsecchi, Michele (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: We analyze the impact of a natural experiment in Indonesia that allocated certain district governments with a windfall revenue from natural resource production. Our identification is based on a comparison between bordering districts in provinces that received the windfall with those that did not receive it, before and after the fiscal reform in 1999. We study the impact on a range of outcome variables such as regional GDP, infrastructure quality, employment, education, and household consumption. Our results demonstrate a "flypaper effect" in the sense that the increased revenue led to higher spending without any lowering of local taxes. We argue that the large relative increases in spending on public services contributed to a very strong increase in local GDP levels, led by the agricultural sector. A 100-dollar windfall further increased literacy by about 2 percent and non-food consumption by 67 USD. The strong general tendency of positive effects from the reform stands in contrast to the negative effects emphasized in the resource curse literature.<p>
    Keywords: Resource windfalls; fiscal decentralization; Indonesia
    JEL: H72 O20 Q33
    Date: 2015–11
  16. By: Spielman, David; Kennedy, Adam
    Abstract: Public policies designed to promote seed industry growth in many developing countries are challenged as much by the nature of its primary consumers—small-scale, resource-poor farmers operating in highly fragmented markets—as by the legacy of the structural legacies of a largely public sector-driven system. Although policymakers introduced a wide range of seed policy reforms in many Asian countries as early as the 1980s and 1990s, there have been only a handful of substantive examples where reforms have effected significant change. One reason for slow progress may be that policymakers are insufficiently informed about the opportunities and trade-offs associated with designing laws and regulations that enable the effective governance of seed industry development. As a result, their decisions—and the analytical tools they rely on—tend to be informed by principles, rather than empirical considerations of seed industry development. This paper explores these issues in the context of Asia’s rapidly growing maize seed sector. The paper explores current gaps in the metrics used to analyze the level of competition and innovation in Asia’s maize industry, and more generally, in seed industries throughout much of the developing world. It provides a finite set of indicators designed to better measure competition and innovation in a country’s seed industry to improve research priority-setting and inform policymaking. In turn, it uses these indicators to characterize future scenarios for Asia’s maize seed industry and to recommend policies and investments that might accelerate further seed industry development in the region.
    Keywords: Seed systems, seed industry, maize, Asia, Crop Production/Industries, Q16, Q18, O31, O33,
    Date: 2015
  17. By: Vishalkumar Jani; Dholakia, Ravindra H.
    Abstract: This paper empirically examines the impact of globalization and international trade on the child health status of the Asian countries. In contrast to previous studies we have introduced the initial level of development and income status that seem to play an important role. We have also checked whether the impact on child health status of trade in services is different from the trade in goods. The fixed effects panel data analysis shows that economic and political globalization have positive impact on the child health status measured by child mortality rates and malnutrition. International trade across all countries has no impact on child health but when different groups of countries classified by their initial levels of income and development are considered, trade shows significant impact on the child health. Further decomposing the trade, trade in services show more positive impact on the child health status than the trade in goods.
  18. By: OLIVIER CADOT (University of Lausanne); Lili Yan Ing (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), University of Indonesia)
    Abstract: While tariffs have been reduced, the number of non-tariff measures (NTMs) is increasing, and is often blamed to be one source of the lack of integration in ASEAN. Yet, the discovery of Volkswagen’s large-scale attempt to seemingly go around US emissions tests serves as a reminder of a stark truth. NTMs can play a role of check and balance for the quality of goods. To make NTMs work for the common good, ASEAN should break from the ‘trade negotiation’ approach and strive instead for three objectives: (1) a drive for transparency, (2) cooperation in conformity assessment procedures, and (3) dynamic disciplines. Such ‘dynamic deep integration’ would largely eliminate the high-visibility political friction, poorly designed—or those captured by special interests— NTMs.
    Date: 2015–10
  19. By: Toke Aidt (University of Cambridge and CESifo); Zareh Asatryan (ZEW Mannheim and University of Freiburg); Lusine Badalyan (University of Bremen and Jacobs University); Friedrich Heinemann (ZEW Mannheim and University of Heidelberg)
    Abstract: We study the short-run effect of elections on monetary aggregates in a sample of 85 low and middle income democracies (1975-2009). We find an increase in the growth rate of M1 during election months of about one tenth of a standard deviation. A similar effect can neither be detected in established OECD democracies nor in other months. The effect is larger in democracies with many poor and uneducated voters, and in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and in East-Asia and the Pacific. We argue that the election month monetary expansion is related to systemic vote buying which requires significant amounts of cash to be disbursed right before elections. The finely timed increase in M1 is consistent with this; is inconsistent with a monetary cycle aimed at creating an election time boom; and it cannot be, fully, accounted for by alternative explanations.
    Keywords: Political business cycles, vote buying, monetary economics
    JEL: D72 E51 O10
    Date: 2015
  20. By: Pınar Gebeşoğlu (Çankaya University, Economics Department)
    Abstract: The Global Financial Crisis of 2007- 2008 and its global repercussions hit the world economy leading to deteriorations in growth, inequality and poverty indicators. Despite the unconventionally strong state support to countervail the spillover effects associated with the global financial crisis, the pace of the progress towards the targeted Millennium Development Goals by 2015 has lost momentum in a number of countries. Since emerging market economies are expected to be more vulnerable to contagion given their dependency on international capital flows the paper examines the social impacts of the global financial crisis of 2007- 2008 in a number of emerging market countries and assesses the vulnerability of the Turkish economy in comparison with other fragile developing economies such as Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, India and Indonesia. It is concluded that although the initial effects of the Global Financial Crisis on the Turkish economy is not as pronounced as the effects observed in some of the other developing economies, Turkey has incurred large losses in terms of growth, employment and income distribution due to the spillover effects of the Global Financial Crisis.
    Keywords: Global Financial Crisis, Growth, Inequality, Poverty, Millenium Development Goals, Spillover effect
    JEL: I31 I32 D31
    Date: 2015
  21. By: Beach, Robert; Creason, Jared; Ohrel, Sara; Ragnauth, Shaun; Ogle, Stephen; Li, Changsheng; Salas, William
    Abstract: Agricultural emissions account for 53% of 2010 global non-CO2 emissions and are projected to increase substantially in the future, especially in Asia, Latin America and Africa. While agriculture is a substantial source of emissions, it is also a potential source of cost-effective non-CO2 GHG abatement. Previous “bottom-up” analyses provided marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for use in modeling these options within economy-wide and global mitigation analyses. In this study, we utilize updated economic and biophysical data and models to extend and improve upon previous work. Key enhancements include incorporation of additional mitigation options, updated baseline emissions projections, greater spatial disaggregation, and development of MAC curves to 2030. MAC curves are generated accounting for net GHG reductions, yield effects, livestock productivity effects, commodity prices, labor requirements, and capital costs where appropriate. MAC curves are developed at the country level and reveal large potential for non-CO2 GHG mitigation at low carbon prices.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2015
  22. By: Lim, Kian-Ping; Thian, Tze-Chung; Hooy, Chee-Wooi
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between shareholdings of various investor groups and stock liquidity for Malaysian public listed firms over the 2002-2009 sample period. Using the Amihud illiquidity ratio, we extend the literature by addressing the issues of investor heterogeneity, trading account types and the interactions of competing liquidity channels. The analysis reveals that only local institutions and local individual investors who trade through the direct accounts are significantly associated with the liquidity of domestic firms. In contrast, the significant liquidity effect for foreign investors operates through the nominee accounts. While institutional ownership exhibits a linear negative relationship, our findings on local individuals and foreign nominees differ greatly from previous studies in that their relationship with stock liquidity is non-monotonic. Apart from the widely researched information asymmetry and trading effects, we find that liquidity is also driven by the largely ignored information competition channel. An important insight from our findings is that the large shareholdings by any particular investor group is detrimental to stock liquidity as they exacerbate information asymmetry, reduce the degree of competition and lower the level of trading activity.
    Keywords: Investor groups; Stock liquidity; Information asymmetry; Information competition; Trading; Malaysia
    JEL: G12 G32
    Date: 2015–07–25
  23. By: Goto, Jun; Sawada, Yasuyuki; Aida, Takeshi; Aoyagi, Keitaro
    Abstract: This paper investigates the interplay between economic incentives and social norms in formulating rice planting contracts in the Philippines. In our study area, despite the potential for pervasive opportunistic behaviors by workers, a fixed-wage (FW) contract has been dominant for rice planting. To account for the use of this seemingly inefficient contractual arrangement, we adopt a hybrid experimental method of framed field experiments by randomized controlled trials (RCT), in which we randomly assign three distinct labor contracts—FW, individual piece rate (IPR), and group piece rate (GPR)—and artefactual field experiments to elicit social preference parameters. Through analyses of individual workers’ performance data from framed field experiments and data on social preferences elicited by artefactual field experiments, three main empirical findings emerge. First, our basic results show the positive incentive effects in IPR and, equivalently, moral hazard problems in FW, which are consistent with standard theoretical implications. Second, non-monetary incentives seem to play a significant role under FW: while social preferences such as altruism and guilt aversion play an important role in stimulating incentives under FW, introducing monetary incentives crowds out such intrinsic motivations, and other non-monetary factors such as positive peer effects significantly enhance incentives under a FW contract. Finally, as alternative hypotheses, our empirical results are not necessarily consistent with the hypothesis of the interlinked contract of labor and credit transactions in mitigating moral hazard problems, the optimality of FW contract under large effort measurement errors, and the intertemporal incentives arising from performance-based contract renewal probabilities. Hence, considering the interplay of intrinsic motivations and monetary incentives as well as the monetary costs of mitigating moral hazard and free-riding problems through IPR, we may conclude that seemingly perverse traditional contractual arrangements might be socially efficient.
    Keywords: Randomized controlled trials, incentives, social preferences, peer effect, labor contract, field experiments, Labor and Human Capital, D03, C93, D22, C91,
    Date: 2015

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