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on South East Asia |
| By: | Maddaremmeng A. Panennungi (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This paper is aimed at providing current condition of ASEAN-China Economic relation and showing the prospect for future economic relation between ASEAN (especially Indonesia) with China. Methods of this paper is focused on qualitative analysis and supported by simple statistics. There are some important highlighted from this paper: (1) One of the main concerns of the most ASEAN countries is the negative bilateral trade balance with China. (2) It is predicted that Asia will reemerge as the largest economy in the world and ASEAN and China will be part of the reemergence. China and Indonesia are the two largest economies in ACFTA. (3) Despite the current short run problems of the China and Indonesia economy, long term economic prospects are still better. One of the drivers could be the development of infrastructure in Mainland Silk Roads and Maritime Silk Road in China and integrated infrastructure development in Indonesia, especially Maritime Axis development. (4) Services is needed to join the global production network/global supply chains in ASEAN and China. (5) However, several challenges that should be faced to secure the future economic and non economic relation. Non economic problems, especially the tension in South China Sea between China and its neighbors should be solved or at least the tension should not move into open conflict. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN, China, Economic Relation |
| JEL: | F15 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpecbs:201502&r=all |
| By: | Aditya Rangga Yogatama, Fithra Faisal Hastiadi (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | The formulation of new OIC Charter at the 11 th OIC Summit in Dakar, 2008, has became the momentum for OIC countries to reassert the importance of democracy and institutional reform in promoting economic and trade cooperation among its members. This study aims to explore the role of democracy and governance in the enhancement of Indonesian exports to the OIC countries during 1998-2012 using augmented gravity model. The results showed that both democracy and governance in Indonesia have positive and significant effect in enhancing Indonesian exports to the OIC countries. While the governance in OIC countries also has positive and significant effect in improving Indonesian exports. On the other hand, democracy in OIC countries has negative and significant effect on the same matter, because lower income OIC countries tend to implement closed trade policy. |
| Keywords: | Democracy, Governance, Exports, Indonesia, OIC |
| JEL: | F14 P33 H11 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpecbs:201504&r=all |
| By: | Maddaremmeng A. Panennungi (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Based on the geography analysis, It is found that the closer relation of China with GMS countries (Mainland Corridors) compared to Malacca Straits countries (Maritime Corridors) during several past decades has potential to marginalize Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore in ASEAN (Fau et. al, 2014). This paper is aimed at deepening the analysis of the development in both corridors by emphasizing economic analysis. There are several methods used in this paper: simple statistics, GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project), and qualitative analysis. This study find out: (1) China economic relation with GMS countries tends to have better progress than with the Malacca Straits Countries. (2) The potential gains from economic integration of China-GMS are higher than China-Malacca Straits Countries. (3) The competition of Malacca Straits countries with the development of alternative trade routes and coupled with the undermining Malacca Straits role in ASEAN under ASEAN-China FTA have potential to isolate Malacca Straits countries in the future. |
| Keywords: | Malacca Straits, Greater Mekong Sub Region (GMS), ASEAN, China |
| JEL: | F15 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpecbs:201503&r=all |
| By: | Llanto, Gilberto M. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Establishing financially inclusive ecosystems for low-income clients, including small and medium enterprises, has become a rising global concern. The Consultative Group to Assist the Poor and the World Bank estimate that around 2.7 billion adults worldwide do not have access to credit, insurance, or savings with a bank or other formal institution. Several studies have argued that financial inclusion empowers the poor to manage their finances and reduce their vulnerability to financial distress, debt, and poverty. The key issues are why formal financial systems are not inclusive, and how they can be made inclusive of the poor. In the Philippines, the government has identified financial inclusion as an important strategy for inclusive growth. This paper discusses the current status of financial inclusion, education, and regulation in the Philippines and measures to foster financial inclusion. The primary policy challenge faced by the government is defining its role in creating the broad and interconnected ecosystems needed for safe and efficient product delivery to the poor. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion; financial education; financial regulations; Philippines; working paper 541 |
| JEL: | G18 |
| Date: | 2015–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0541&r=all |
| By: | Patarapong INTARAKUMNERD (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)) |
| Abstract: | Over a span of 50 years, Thailand’s automotive industry changed from a small, import-substituting one to a large and vibrant exporting one. Intra-industry trade between Thailand and other countries in East Asia has risen markedly, especially in automotive parts. Its sectoral innovation system has evolved from a passive-learning and fragmented system to a more active-learning and coherent one. Foreign carmakers and first-tier suppliers as well as several local suppliers made considerable effort to enhance their technological capabilities. Universities and research institutes started to have sector-specific teaching and research programmes and closer collaboration with the industry. The sector-specific government promotion agency has been increasingly acting as an ‘intermediary’ organisation. The system gradually upgraded from being a ‘production’ system to a somewhat ‘innovation-oriented’ and ‘R&D-intensive’ one. It has also become more ‘product specific.’ |
| Keywords: | automotive industry, Thailand, technological and innovative capabilities, sectoral innovation system, production networks |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2015-73&r=all |
| By: | Rillo, Aladdin D. (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sombilla, Mercedita A. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Responding positively to economic reforms, the economies of Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, and Viet Nam (CLMV) have shown tremendous growth since the mid-1980s, including in their respective agriculture sectors. Recent developments, however, have brought into question the CLMV countries’ ability to sustain further increases in agricultural productivity given the slow pace of reforms and emerging challenges. Going forward, the reform agenda must go beyond the traditional view of expanding yields and supply of agricultural products for development gains in the sector to contribute to inclusive growth, poverty alleviation, and food security. This will require changing the market structures and regulatory policies that govern the sector. |
| Keywords: | agricultural productivity; clmv; agriculture policy |
| JEL: | Q10 Q21 Q28 |
| Date: | 2015–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0542&r=all |
| By: | Narciso Gaia |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the characteristics of migrant households and analyses the effects of migration in Vietnam, on the basis of the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey conducted in 2012 and 2014. The data reveal significant movemen |
| Keywords: | Emigrant remittances, Households, Labor mobility, Microeconomics, Migration, Internal |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-095&r=all |
| By: | Markussen Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper uses five waves of the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) to analyse land issues in Viet Nam from a number of different angles. The VARHS provides panel data at plot as well as household level and I use this rich data set to p |
| Keywords: | Household surveys, Households, Land tenure, Microeconomics, Right of property |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-088&r=all |
| By: | Markussen Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits five waves of the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) to investigate issues of social and political capital in rural Viet Nam. I analyse membership of the Communist Party, `mass organizations´ (Farmers´ Union, Women. |
| Keywords: | Economic development, Families, Household surveys, Households, Intergovernmental fiscal relations, Labor unions, Land tenure, Local government, Microeconomics, Social capital (Sociology) |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-087&r=all |
| By: | Morgan, Peter (Asian Development Bank Institute); Zhang, Yan (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents estimates of the effect of the share of mortgage lending by individual banks on two measures of financial stability—the bank Z-score and the nonperforming loan ratio. The sample covers 212 banks in 19 emerging Asian economies for 2007–2013 from the Bankscope database. The findings suggest that mortgage lending is positive for financial stability, specifically by lowering the probability of default by financial institutions and reducing the nonperforming loan ratio, at least in noncrisis periods, for levels of mortgage shares up to 30%–40%. For higher levels of mortgage lending shares, the impact on financial stability turns negative. Mortgage lending can also be a useful measure of both financial development and financial inclusion. |
| Keywords: | financial stability; mortgage loan ratio; mortgage lending |
| JEL: | G21 O16 R30 |
| Date: | 2015–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0543&r=all |
| By: | Javier LÓPEZ–GONZÁLEZ (OECD); Przemyslaw KOWALSKI (OECD) |
| Abstract: | ASEAN has embraced the new opportunities offered by global value chains (GVCs). Participation, which is linked to growing productivity and increased sophistication and diversification of exports, has grown across the board. The drivers of participation, while mainly structural, such as the size of the economy or the distance to manufacturing hubs, also include trade and investment openness, logistics performance, hard and soft infrastructure, and good governance. Much progress has been made in the process of completing the AEC but with competitive pressures rising, as other countries increasingly look to joining GVCs, there is a strengthened case for continuing the process of reform through further trade and investment openness and domestic regulatory reform. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains; Trade Policy; Investment Opennes; upgrading; intermediate inputs, Southeast Asia; ASEAN; Regional Trade Agreements |
| JEL: | F1 F2 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2015-71&r=all |
| By: | Cielo Magno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Mineral extraction alone is not sufficient to trigger sustainable development in developing countries. The mainstream paradigm on mining for development suggests that mineral-rich developing countries need to formulate a fiscal policy that can balance the need to maximize fiscal revenue while ensuring that the country has an attractive investment climate. The presence of mining companies in poor remote communities is sufficient to initiate development. In this discussion, it is suggested that the fiscal policy should take into account the state of governance where mining is being conducted, the extent of linkages mining creates in the local economy and whether the Regalian doctrine applies to ownership of minerals. The raise-to-the-bottom approach in designing fiscal policies does not necessarily benefit mineral-rich developing countries. In the case of the Philippines, a more comprehensive development framework is necessary to ensure that mining contribute to the sustainable development of the Philippines. The framework should include: (1) good governance of the public and extractive sectors which entails institutionalization of transparency and accountability mechanisms, implementation of the United Nations guiding principles on business and human rights and strengthening of government's regulatory capacity; (2) effective allocative capacity and capacity to effectively manage the returns from the sector by the government so that the proceeds from mining contribute to sustainable development and ensure intergenerational equity; (3) establishment of linkages between the extractive sector and the rest of the economy to maximize the benefit of the extractive activity; and (4) fiscal policy that reflects fair share in the extraction of resources, the state of mining governance and the environment where extraction is conducted. Fair share in mining includes payment for the minerals owned by the government on top of the regular taxes the government imposes to all industries. |
| Keywords: | mining, natural resource extraction, extractive industry, sustainable development, taxation |
| JEL: | E62 L72 O13 H23 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:201512&r=all |
| By: | Kaila Heidi |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a descriptive analysis on the ownership of different types of technology.both agricultural machinery and information technology.within households in rural areas of Vietnam. We find that there has been little development in the owne |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Households, Information technology, Internet, Microeconomics, Technology |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-091&r=all |
| By: | Tausch, Arno |
| Abstract: | Given the dramatic images on the screens of international television stations every day, there is no shortage of warnings that speak of a new "Migration Period" in global history. Realistic estimates on what is to be expected in Europe over the coming months based on existing, openly accessible and reliable sources on this subject have not yet been published. How many people will come to Europe as migrants from the region of the Middle East and the Islamic world, and how many asylum seekers will submit their applications? What should be done in terms of labor market policies? What will be the trajectories of societal integration? Our contribution applies up-to-date statistics and proven ways of interpreting the data established by recent international migration research in order to make reasonably and reliable first statements about the migration potential from the Arab countries to Europe. In a separate chapter we also present projections based on UNHCR asylum statistics and the probable distribution of the number of the expected 850,000 Syrian refugees which will come to Europe in the coming months according to numerous think tanks. We attempt our evaluations in the overall framework of the analysis of the bilateral global migration matrix of the World Bank, which permits a unique insight into the dynamics of global migration. To our knowledge, it is the first time that these data are used in the context of the current crisis. In retrospective, the literature written before the 2004 EU-enlargement, still offers many lessons for today and can be distinguished into two methodological approaches: a) Studies, based on social science surveys on the intention to emigrate b) Model calculations, based on wage differentials and the different levels of development Seen in the light of the most recent World Bank data we can say today that some forecasts written before 2004 survived the passage of time; especially the study by Richard Layard, Olivier Blanchard, Rudi Dornbusch and Paul Krugman; and the study by Ewald Walterskirchen and Raimund Dietz from the Austrian Economics Research Institute WIFO. In retrospective, these models predicted most accurately the world of the 2013 World Bank data. Both models were based on wage differentials. The models rested on the famous work of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1991, 1995: a wage differential or income differential of 10% would lead to a net migration of between 0.05% and 0.15% per annum of the resident population of the poorer country to the richer country. We show in our paper how today's data by the World Bank are well explained by such a Barro type of approach from 1990 onwards. The application of the Barro-formula to the Arab world from 1990 onwards results in a migration backlog of 23.4 million people, which corresponds almost exactly to the number of 26.8 million people who emigrated from the region according to the World Bank Migration Matrix. In line with the other still relevant survey on East European Migration, published by Fassmann and Hintermann, 1997, we distinguish between the intention to emigrate, the planning of migration and the concrete steps of the preparation of migration. From the most recent Gallup data we can conclude that for every 100 people who say in surveys that they want to emigrate actually only 3.0 will really go. This is strongly reminiscent of the early results in the Fassmann and Hintermann study. The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS) in Doha in Qatar, which is regarded as a semi-official think tank of the government of Qatar, is at the forefront of the expanding industry of representative opinion polls in the Middle East region. An ACRPS survey in Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, the Occupied Territories of Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Kuwait, which represents 90% of the total population of the Arab League, provided additional data which we can use in our projections of the expected migration from the Arab world (in millions of persons). The ACRPS says that 22% of the total Arab population would like to emigrate. Applying World Bank population figures and the “Gallup key” of 100 intending to emigrate, 7.3 planning to move and 3.0 actually preparing emigration, we arrive at the following figures: Arabs intending to migrate 82.95 millions Arabs planning migration 6.32 millions Arabs already undertaking concrete steps to emigrate 2.50 millions For the period 2015-2020, the overall result is a cumulative number of 0.6 million Arabs and 1.2 million OIC citizens who might be realistically coming to the EU-15. Far from the "Great Migration Period" of populist parties and politicians this influx won’t be negligible, but it is a far cry from what populist politicians will tell us in Europe. Now leaving aside the issue of “normal migration” and debating asylum, we have to state that in our analysis and projections based on UNHCR data, we have to assume that Austria at least will be taking in 7% of the expected number of the 850,000 Syrian refugees to be expected in the coming months. Germany will be confronted with an inflow of more than 500.000 Syrian refugees. In the next part of our analysis, we then deal with the assessment of the hitherto observable performance of the migration policy regime of Schengen. With only 12% of all asylum cases being decided upon in the EU in a positive way, and 73% of asylum decisions being decided in an outright negative way, and another 11% of applicants being granted only a subsidiary protection and another 4% only receiving a residence permit on humanitarian grounds, it is evident that the system is absolutely overburdened by “normal migration” and that in fact it reflects a huge and gigantic black market for migration. The EU’s total population increase is the result of 0.5 million persons attributable to natural population growth and 0.9 million persons attributable to net immigration. In other words, net immigration to Europe already supplies 64% of the population growth of the European Union. Turkey, Morocco and Albania are the biggest beneficiaries of this migration process to Europe. The residence permits for third country nationals (2.5 million titles in 2010) have to be broken down as follows: • work visas 32.5% • family reunification visas 30.2% • study visas 20.6% • various other reasons 17% (protection-related, residence without the right to work, etc.). In addition, there are 2 million up to 4.5 million illegal immigrants living in the EU-28; around 300.000 persons to whom entry into the EU was denied and 400.000-500.000 people who are arrested at the borders annually, trying to cross the borders illegally. Reducing the inflated number of family reunification visas and substantially increasing the number of work visas would be one first and very necessary step to bring some sort of sanity into this completely bankrupt migration policy regime. While Hatton, 2009, and Neumayer, 2005, 2006a and 2006b provided important and valuable cross-national insights on the drivers of the asylum seeking process, as yet little is known in terms of hard-core evidence about the effects of asylum-driven migration processes on the recipient countries. But such analyses are necessary, since asylum plays such an important role in the overall South-North migration process, and several international decision makers, especially on the European level, are increasingly stressing the necessity to get asylum seekers into employment, while others – like the Austrian Ministry of the Interior in its long-term strategy, published in 2012 – vehemently argue in favor of a clear separation between legal, employment-related migration and asylum. Will ‘getting asylum seekers into employment’ have any effects on social and economic development, or will it motivate more and more people to emigrate for work as “free riders” of the asylum system? Our data analysis is based on the tradition of cross-national development accounting, using an expanded version of the Tausch, 2012b data set ('Corvinus University data set') and UNDP, 2009 and UNHCR, 2012 figures on migration. We start these empirical cross-national analyses by providing some calculations about the societal effects of the well-known Migration Policy Index (MIPEX-Index), which measures the general institutional ease with which migration recipient countries integrate migrants. Our calculations reconfirm the reservations by the present author (Tausch, 2010, 2012) against the generalized neo-liberal thesis that a free migration process automatically ensures economic prosperity. With the level of development and the overall conditions of the migration process being constant, there are some very serious and significant negative partial correlations of the MIPEX Index with indicators of political participation and the fight against discrimination. Our data also show the significant pull-factors, caused by an open migration regime, as measured by the MIPEX Index, as well as the societal consequences of a high MIPEX Index score - growing xenophobia against the weakest groups in society - such as the Roma and Sintis, an ensuing growing public debt burden, and lower economic growth. One might still argue that, on ethical grounds, one should be still in favor of increasing MIPEX index performance, but in terms of its societal consequences, our results suggest to be pessimistic. We then move on to analyze systematically the effects of the UNDP cross-national migration variables on socio-economic development and vice versa. Our hypothesis is that opening the gates of unlimited access of asylum seekers to the labor market an even more substantial number of people would decide to enter the labor markets in the developed countries in Europe via the asylum procedure, thus thwarting any attempts to arrive at a more education and skill oriented immigration system. We try to corroborate this by first looking into the question of the relationship between access liberalization, measured by the MIPEX Index, and the UNDP documented asylum burden rate. Although the relationship is not too strong, there is some positive trade-offs between the two variables. In our study, we also provide a very clear-cut argument on how a migration policy, based on asylum influx, is ill-conceived, and several important phenomena are significantly being undermined - internal security, the balance of tolerance in society, gender relations, education, and environmental conditions. Our partial correlation analysis shows that with increasing dependence on the immigration system based on the influx of asylum seekers, there is a significantly larger societal acceptance of the value orientation that men have precedence on the labor market over women when jobs are scarce; et cetera. We then document the positive effects of work permit requirements for asylum seekers, still in place in several European countries and documented by the European Commission/Europäische Kommission (2012), on various socio-economic indicators from the Tausch 2012b Corvinus data set, including environment data, economic growth, education, and World Values Survey indicators of tolerance and volunteer activities. Social security, growth, environmental policy, education, health, liberal values in society - all these are positively affected by a work permit regime for asylum seekers in Europe, which the European Commission seems to be inclined to abolish. We also show the sobering results of the determinants of average economic growth rates in the EU-27 in the era of the current world economic crisis, 2008 to 2011. The crisis hit the poorer EU countries - ceteris paribus - far harder than the richer countries, and immigration rates are a significant negative determinant of growth, while the work permits regime for asylum seekers significantly and positively affects economic growth. We also present estimates of the determinants of asylum burden rates in the world system. In addition to the famous 'bell-curve' of the levels of development, private health expenditures and the military personnel rates are significant drivers of asylum burden rates, while we also show that dependency from the large transnational corporations (measured by UNCTAD data on MNC penetration and its rise over time) are conducive to such higher asylum burden rates. Thus, we can show that traditional quantitative approaches to international development, initiated by the Swiss sociologist Volker Bornschier, which are based on UNCTAD data on MNC penetration and its rise over time, explain well contemporary social asylum process realities of the world today. By contrast, an employment policy favoring the employment rates of older workers generally deters higher asylum dependency ratios. We finally show bivariate and partial correlations of asylum procedure global recognition rates, as documented by the UNHCR for 2010, and key variables of socio-economic development, as documented in Tausch, 2012a, 2012b. Our results again would caution against an asylum-based or asylum-driven immigration policy. We conclude by saying that the European Commission would be well advised to seek to redistribute current asylum inflows from countries like Germany, France, Netherlands, Sweden, and Austria to other EU-member countries, thus providing more fairness in the current Schengen system. Tripling the European numbers of legal work permits would also be an advisable strategy, and Europe should seriously consider the new Austrian migration procedure for third-country nationals (Red-White-Red-card) as a best practice model. The third major issue with which we are dealing here is the absorption capacity of European states. Are there limits to integration in times of mass inward migration? We provide our readers with a case study, based on as special evaluation of available statistics from the Austrian BMI (Ministry of the Interior), the Austrian Central Statistical Office, and the UNHCR in the context of current debates around the theme "Migration, integration and asylum". Not preconceived ideas, but the statistics program packages Excel and SPSS and the use of modern social science methods should provide us with the best available information to draw conclusions. One might argue that the comparison of statistics about the shares of different resident nationalities per total population in a migration destination country and the shares of different resident nationalities per total convicted criminals is a useless indicator and presents a distorted picture, because the justice system in the developed Western democracies is racist and discriminatory. We are well aware of the entire phalanx of sociological literature (see Binswanger et al, 2012; Bishop et al, 2010; Crutchfield et al, 2010; Fekete and Webber, 2010; Lopez, 2010; Wall, 2011; Reskin, 2012; Tonry, 2010), which is inclined to see institutional racism of the police and the justice system at work when one is confronted by the statistics of the US prison population rates. But on the other hand is the rule of law in in the West so corrupted that the results of jurisprudence are so distorted? In Austria, the share of the 1.4 million resident foreigners among the persons convicted as rapists is twice as high as their share in the total population; and for the case of robbery, it is even 2.4 times higher. It could be argued that again we are confronted with racist and xenophobic authorities. In Austria, recent data suggest that Muslims are only 6.8% of the resident population while the share of Muslims in the total prison population is 19.3%, i.e. around 2.8 times as high as would have been expected. Austrian officialdom tends to say that crimes are committed by individuals and not by ethnic or religious groups. But is this really all we can say on the issue? Our statistical analysis precisely attempts to do what an entire sub-discipline of the social science profession will vehemently argue against: to compare the rates of different nationalities, resident in Austria, among the crime suspects per total population with the share of the different nationalities per total resident population. 3.74% of the resident population of Austria - citizens of Romania and Bulgaria, and the former USSR, incl. Chechnya, and other third countries, already have a share of 21.62% of all convicted murderers. The citizens of 11 countries succeeded in achieving a suspect rate which is below the level of the resident Austrians 1. Korea, Rep. (South) 2. Indonesia 3. Japan 4. Cambodia 5. Singapore 6. Cyprus 7. Turkmenistan 8. Canada 9. Ethiopia 10. Philippines 11. Finland while the residents from more than 30 nations had a suspect rate of 10% or more. The analyzed figures show on the one hand that a simplistic anti-Muslim propaganda cannot explain why the nationals from Muslim-majority countries such as Indonesia and Turkmenistan so easily adopted to Austrian society, while the nationals of other nations are confronted with a suspect per total population rate of 10 or more percent. But we also present multivariate calculations on the statistical relationships between aggregate characteristics of the home countries of migrants and their police suspect rates in Austria as an indicator of “problems of integration”, independent of the development levels achieved • A high level of education in the home country makes migrants from this country more immune to the siren calls of crime abroad • home country gender empowerment data show that if a migrant already experienced gender empowerment in his home country, his or her integration abroad is much easier and the police suspect rates are significantly lower • Migrants raised and educated in political cultures where there is already a high level of environmental policy-awareness are less prone to become police suspects • People from countries which do not discriminate against their own immigrants at home find it much easier than others to integrate; their police suspect rates are much lower • The homicide rate in the country of origin has no statistical impact on the police suspect rate in Austria We also present multiple regression results from 147 countries which show that migration pressure, defined here as the per mille of the population of a country, being a resident in the EU-15, is a curve-linear function of the income level of the country in terms of the EU purchasing power, and a negative function of the satisfaction of the population with the local labor market. Membership in the European Economic Area and geographical distance to Belgium as the geographical center of the European Union wield no significant effect. |
| Keywords: | international migration, human resources, human development, income distribution, migration, regional migration, regional labour markets, population, neighbourhood characteristics |
| JEL: | F22 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67400&r=all |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice |
| Abstract: | Purpose – We assess growth determinants in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) fast-developing nations for the period 2001-2011. Particular emphasis is laid on the bundling and unbundling of ten governance dynamics. Design/methodology/approach- Contemporary and non-contemporary Fixed- and Random-Effects regressions are employed as empirical strategies. GDP growth and real GDP output are used as dependent variables. The governance variables are bundled by means of principal component analysis. Findings- The following are some findings. First, governance is more positively significant in non-contemporary specifications as opposed to contemporary regressions. Second, there is some interesting evidence on the heterogeneity of political governance as a driver. Political governance and its constituents (political stability and voice & accountability) are significantly positive in GDP growth but insignificant in real GDP output regressions. Third, the other governance dynamics are more significant determinants of real GDP output, as opposed to GDP growth. Accordingly, they are insignificant in contemporary regressions and negatively significant in non-contemporary regressions for GDP growth. Fourth, the constituents of economic governance have the highest magnitude in the positive effects of governance dynamics on real GDP output. Practical implications- The following are some practical implications. First, lag determinants are necessary for growth targeting or timing of growth dynamics. Growth drivers for the most part are more significantly determined by past information. Second, political governance is the most important driver of economic growth, with the significance of effects more apparent in non-contemporary regressions. Third, economic governance and institutional governance are more positively predisposed to driving real GDP output than GDP growth. Originality/value- As far as we have reviewed, it is the first study to investigate growth determinants in the BRICS and MINT nations. It has strong implications for other developing countries on the contem |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; emerging countries; governance |
| JEL: | C52 F21 F23 O40 P37 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67310&r=all |
| By: | Beck Ulrik |
| Abstract: | This study documents the local transformation of rural Vietnamese communes in 12 different provinces from 2006 to 2014. Three key areas are considered, namely occupational and agricultural choice; provision of public goods and infrastructure as well as la |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Economic development, Land reform |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-065&r=all |
| By: | Singhal Saurabh; Beck Ulrik |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the ethnic disadvantage in rural Vietnam, focusing on the magnitude of the majority.minority gap and the constraints on ethnic minority households that contribute to the gap. Using a biannual panel dataset spanning the period 200 |
| Keywords: | Equality and inequality, Ethnic relations, Households, Income, Minorities |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-097&r=all |
| By: | Newman Carol; Zhang Mengyang |
| Abstract: | We explore the relationship between connections and public transfers in decentralized poverty-targeting programmes. Using panel data from Vietnam we find evidence that households with connections to local government are more likely to be classified as poo |
| Keywords: | Sociological aspects (Economics), Households, Microeconomics, Poverty, Public welfare |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-031&r=all |
| By: | Amadou Boly |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new evidence on the study of income mobility in Ecuador over the period 2004�..11. We utilize longitudinal data of individual income File-URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/publications/wo rking-papers/2015/en_GB/wp2015-039/_file s/93548957648879904/default/wp2015-039.p df |
| Keywords: | inequality, inequality of opportunity, Uganda, great recession |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-038&r=all |
| By: | Newman Carol; Kinghan Christina |
| Abstract: | Diversification of household activities away from agriculture is a key characteristic of economic development. We examine the extent of diversification among Vietnamese households, from agriculture into waged employment and entrepreneurship and whether th |
| Keywords: | Agricultural laborers, Economic development, Entrepreneurship, Households, Microeconomics |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-064&r=all |
| By: | Lili Yan ING (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) and University of Indonesia); Miaojie YU (CCER, Peking University) |
| Abstract: | The main value added of our paper is twofold. First, we construct a theoretical framework on how South–South trade will affect productivity cut-offs. Second, we present empirical exercises using highly disaggregated data. Our model is based on the South–South–North trade framework. Using a vertical integration among Southern countries (Indonesia and China) and testing it by employing merged Chinese firms and customs trade data, we find that three types of tariff reductions—foreign tariff reductions, home output tariff reductions, and home input tariff reductions—significantly increase home country firm productivity and exports via extensive and intensive margins. Our findings are robust using ex-ante and expost productivity. |
| Keywords: | China, Indonesia, Tariff, Exports, Manufacturing |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2015-70&r=all |
| By: | Jen-Je Su; Eduardo Roca; Victor SH Wong |
| Keywords: | Market efficiency, Asian stock markets, emerging markets, global financial crisis, autocorrelation tests |
| JEL: | G15 G14 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gri:fpaper:finance:201507&r=all |
| By: | Badi H. Baltagi (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Jing Li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University, 90 Stamford Road, Singapore, 178903) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the homogeneity feature of the Singapore private residential condominium market and constructs matched home purchase price and rental price series using the repeated sales method. These matched series allow us to conduct time series analysis to examine the long-term present value relationship in the housing market. Three key findings are obtained. First, we fail to establish a cointegrating relationship between the home purchase price and rental price based on nationally estimated indexes. Second, area specific indexes demonstrate strong cross-correlations, invalidating the use of first generation panel unit root tests that ignore these cross-correlations. Third, Pesaran’s CIPS test indicates that the unit root hypothesis is rejected for the first difference of both indexes. We also do not reject the hypothesis that home purchases and rental price indexes are cointegrated with a cointegrating vector (1,-1). |
| Keywords: | Cointegration; Housing Market; Purchase and Rental Price; Market Efficiency |
| JEL: | R00 C1 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprwps:185&r=all |
| By: | Kodila-Tedika, Oasis; Asongu, Simplice |
| Abstract: | We assess the correlations between intelligence and financial development in 123 countries using data averages from 2000-2010. Human capital is measured in terms of IQ, cognitive ability & cognitive skills, while financial development is appreciated both from financial intermediary and stock market development perspectives. Short-term financial measures are private and domestic credits whereas long-term financial indicators include: stock market capitalization, stock market value traded and turnover ratio. The following findings are established. (1) With respect to private credit, the positive correlations of IQ and cognitive ability are broadly similar while that of cognitive skills is substantially higher in terms of magnitude. (2) The correlation between intelligence and other financial variables are broadly similar. (3) The underlying findings are broadly confirmed in terms of sign of correlation, though the magnitude of correlation is higher (lower) with the addition of social capital or ethnic fractionalization (institutions or income). (4) When continents are excluded to control for extreme effects, baseline results are confirmed and the following on order of continental importance in financial development is established in increasing magnitude: Africa, Americas, Oceania, Europe & Asia. |
| Keywords: | Financial development, Intelligence, Skill, Human Capital |
| JEL: | E01 G20 I20 I29 |
| Date: | 2015–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67295&r=all |
| By: | Thai Thi Minh; Carsten Nico Hjotrsø |
| Abstract: | Drawing on the triple helix model and organizational institutionalism, this article applies a qualitative research approach to analyze structures, institutional logics, power relations that shape inter-organizational relations and the structuration of a knowledge production system in an emerging economy. Findings highlight the emergence of a fifth-helices knowledge production system includes the state, science and education, industry, international actors, and society. The system comprises two major segments, one associated with the traditional command economy and characterized by institutional control that reproduces an ill-adopted and less transparent system based on systemic power. At the border of this system, a market- and quality-oriented segment emerges through marked-oriented evolution and collaborative co-evolution processes driven by institutional agency. The system-level dynamics are characterized by political ambidexterity that enables the state to maintain control by privileging traditional science and education constituencies, and at the same time support the transition of the knowledge production system towards international methodology and quality standards through relational mechanisms such as cooperation, harmonization, and partnership. Our research shows that the proposed framework offers a valuable basis for deriving realistic policy and program recommendations to guide national and international actors in designing interventions and collaboration within knowledge production systems in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Triple helix, knowledge production system, organizational field, institutional logics, rational mechanisms, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aal:glowps:2015-08&r=all |