nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2015‒09‒18
forty-four papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Bantuan Siswa Miskin (BSM): Indonesian Cash Transfer Programme for Poor Students By Dyah Larasati; Fiona Howell
  2. Investor Protection, Corporate Governance and Firm Performance: Evidence from Asian Real Estate Investment Trusts By A.Dian Prima; S. Stevenson
  3. Scoping Study for the Special Border Economic Zone (SBEZ) in the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT) By Lord, Montague; Tangtrongjita, Pawat
  4. Non-tariff Measures and Harmonisation: Issues for the RCEP By Olivier CADOT; Lili Yan ING
  5. Oil Palm Boom, Contract Farming, and Village Development: Evidence from Indonesia By Gatto, Marcel; Wollni, Meike; Rosyani, Ir.; Qaim, Matin
  6. Comparing the use of risk-influencing production inputs and experimentally measured risk attitude: Do decisions of Indonesian small-scale rubber farmers match? By Moser, Stefan; Mußhoff, Oliver
  7. The Philippines in the Electronics Global Value Chain: Upgrading Opportunities and Challenges By Rafaelita M. ALDABA
  8. A Multi-Stakeholder Dairy Platform for the Asia-Pacific Region:Justification and Issues to be Considered for Formation and Management By Jabbar, Mohammad A.; Ahuja, Vinod
  9. A framed field experiment about policy measures: Testing the effectiveness of rewards or punishments with different probabilities as incentives in palm oil production By Moser, Stefan; Mußhoff, Oliver
  10. Oil palm expansion among smallholder farmers in Sumatra, Indonesia By Euler, Michael; Schwarze, Stefan; Siregar, Hermanto; Qaim, Matin
  11. Financial Inclusion, Financial Regulation, and Financial Education in Thailand By Tambunlertchai, Kanittha
  12. Misallocation, Productivity, and Trade Liberalization: The Case of Vietnamese Manufacturing@ By Doan Thi Thanh Ha; Kozo Kiyota
  13. Generation Y Homeownership In Malaysia By M.Azhar Ab Wahid
  14. Oil palm adoption, household welfare and nutrition among smallholder farmers in Indonesia By Euler, Michael; Krishna, Vijesh; Schwarze, Stefan; Siregar, Hermanto; Qaim, Matin
  15. Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH): Program Bantuan Dana Tunai Bersyarat di Indonesia By Suahasil Nazara; Sri Kusumastuti Rahayu
  16. Oil Palm Boom and Land-Use Dynamics in Indonesia: The Role of Policies and Socioeconomic Factors By Gatto, Marcel; Wollni, Meike; Qaim, Matin
  17. Farmer heterogeneity and differential livelihood impacts of oil palm expansion among smallholders in Sumatra, Indonesia By Krishna, Vijesh V.; Euler, Michael; Siregar, Hermanto; Fathoni, Zakky; Qaim, Matin
  18. Have Indonesian Rubber Processors Formed a Cartel? Analysis of Intertemporal Marketing Margin Manipulation By Kopp, Thomas; Alamsyah, Zulkifli; Fatricia, Raja Sharah; Brümmer, Bernhard
  19. Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Global Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing through Trade and Commodity Price Channels By Ludovic Gauvin; Cyril Rebillard
  20. Enhancing Financial Stability in Developing Asia By Adam Posen; Nicolas Veron
  21. Addressing Poverty and Vulnerability in ASEAN: An Analysis of Measures and Implications Going Forward By Sudarno SUMARTO; Sarah MOSELLE
  22. Who are the best online readers? By OECD
  23. Impact Of Indoor Environmental Quality And Innovation Features On Residential Property Price And Rent In Malaysia: A Review By M.Mohd Ghaza Rahman; M.Mohd Raid; A.'Che Kasim; K. Hussin
  24. Spillover Effects of International Standards : Work Conditions in Vietnamese Small and Medium Enterprises By Neda Trifkovi?
  25. Do emerging land markets promote forestland appropriation? Evidence from Indonesia By Krishna, Vijesh V.; Pascual, Unai; Qaim, Matin
  26. Harapan: A "No Man's Land" Turned into a Contested Agro-Industrial Zone By Hauser-Schäublin, Brigitta; Steinebach, Stefanie
  27. Bootstrap Analysis for Asian REIT's Portfolios By E. Kurtbegu; J. Caicedo-Llano
  28. An Assessment of the Community Mortgage Programs of the Social Housing Finance Corporation By Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ramos, Tatum; Magtibay, Jasmine E.
  29. Property Damage Recovery and Coping Behavior of Households Affected by an Extreme Flood Event in Marikina City, Metro Manila, Philippines By Francisco, Jamil Paolo S.
  30. Japanese Foreign Aid, Development Expenditures and Taxation in Thailand 1960-2012:Econometric Results from a Bounded Rationality Model of Fiscal Behavior By Khan, Haider A.; Dost, Ahmad Najim
  31. Moving rubber to a better place - and extracting rents from credit constrained farmers along the way By Kopp, Thomas; Bümmer, Bernhard
  32. Assessing The Most Suitable Valuation Approaches And Methodologies For Stratum Title In Malaysia By S.Faziah Abd Rasid
  33. Sustainability in Retail Developments: Case of Singapore By L. Chin
  34. Pricing of IPOs: The Unique Case of Turkish REITs By I. Erol; D. Tirtiroglu
  35. Drivers of households' land-use decisions - A critical review of micro-level studies in tropical regions By Hettig, Elisabeth; Lay, Jann; Sipangule, Kacana
  36. Establishing a blended global real estate investment strategy using transaction based indices By A. Moss; H. Vrensen; N. Almond
  37. Unprecedented Changes in the Terms of Trade By Mariano Kulish; Daniel Rees
  38. Does Property Transaction Matter in Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets? Evidence from International Firm Level Data By M. Cheung; C. Lei
  39. Alternative Index (Smart Beta) strategies for REIT Mutual Funds By A. Moss; K. Farrelly
  40. Rubber vs. oil palm: an analysis of factors influencing smallholders' crop choice in Jambi, Indonesia By Schwarze, Stefan; Euler, Michael; Gatto, Marcel; Hein, J.; Hettig, Elisabeth; Holtkamp, Anna Mareike; Izhar, Lutfi; Kunz, Y.; Lay, J.; Merten, J.; Moser, S.; Mußhoff, O.; Otten, Fenna; Qaim, M.; Soetarto, Endriatmo; Steinebach, S.; Trapp, K.; Vorlaufer, Miriam; Faust, Heiko
  41. Export, Import and Total Trade Potential of Pakistan: A Gravity Model Approach By Sultan, Maryam; Munir, Kashif
  42. Personality and Sales Performance By Y.Leng Chow; S.Eng Ong
  43. Simple power-law models to predict flow metrics for water resource and risk management along the Mekong tributaries. [Abstract only] By Lacombe, Guillaume; Douangsavanh, Somphasith; Vogel, R.; McCartney, Matthew; Chemin, Yann; Rebelo, Lisa-Maria; Sotoukee, Touleelor
  44. Towards an integrated ecological-economic land-use change model By Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M.; Tarigan, Suria; Wiegand, Kerstin

  1. By: Dyah Larasati (IPC-IG); Fiona Howell (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: Pemerintah Indonesia menempatkan penyediaan akses ke dunia pendidikan yang merata sebagai prioritas utama. Pendidikan Universal/ untuk semua merupakan landasan untuk pembangunan ekonomi di masa depan dan untuk mencapai masyarakat yang lebih maju dan makmur. Selama satu dasawarsa terakhir Pemerintah Indonesia telah melakukan berbagai usaha untuk mewujudkan terciptanya pemerataan pendidikan. Pada 2003, Kementerian Pendidikan dan Kebudayaan (Kemendikbud) telah menerapkan Program Wajib Belajar Pendidikan Dasar (Wajar Dikdas) Sembilan tahun dengan tujuan agar anak-anak usia sekolah dapat terus melanjutkan pendidikan mereka hingga jenjang Pendidikan Dasar (Sekolah Dasar/SD dan Sekolah Menengah Pertama/SMP). Pada tahun 2005, pemerintah kemudian memperkenalkan program subsidi pendidikan yang dikenal sebagai Program Bantuan Operasional Sekolah (BOS) untuk menyediakan pendanaan biaya operasional pendidikan non-personalia bagi satuan pendidikan dasar sebagai pelaksana program wajib belajar, yang diberikan secara langsung kepada sekolah tingkat dasar dan menengah pertama. Dana Program BOS diperuntukkan untuk mencakup biaya-biaya pendidikan langsung tetapi tidak mencakup biaya-biaya tidak langsung pendidikan (misalnya biaya transportasi, seragam dan sebagainya), yang menjadi hambatan utama bagi anak usia sekolah untuk memperoleh akses pendidikan (utamanya bagi rumah tangga dengan tingkat sosial ekonomi terendah). Pemerintah Indonesia kemudian memperkenalkan Program Bantuan Siswa Miskin atau BSM pada tahun 2008 sebagai pelengkap dari Program Bantuan Operasional Sekolah (BOS). Sehingga jika Program BOS membantu mengatasi hambatan dalam hal pungutan uang sekolah, maka Program BSM diharapkan dapat berkontribusi dalam mengatasi biaya-biaya pendidikan tidak langsung yang harus dikeluarkan oleh keluarga/rumah tangga. Kedua program tersebut, diharapkan dapat membantu menangani kendala keuangan keluarga/rumah tangga untuk mencapai pendidikan hingga 12 tahun.
    Keywords: Bantuan Siswa Miskin, BSM, Indonesian, Cash Transfer Programme, Poor Students
    Date: 2014–07
  2. By: A.Dian Prima; S. Stevenson
    Abstract: This study aims to investigate the impact of investor protection on Asian REITs valuation and performance. The relationship between investor protection and corporate governance mechanisms, namely board independence, concentrated ownership by outside blockholders and sponsors are also examined in this study. The sample consists of 317 firm year observations from 57 REITs across Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia with 10 years period between 2002 and 2012. The findings show that REIT with stronger investor protection is associated with higher firm valuation. Investor protection, however, is found to have only a weak positive effect on REIT performance. The results further reveal that investor protection can be a substitute to a weak level of board independence, but not vice versa. The results also suggest that investor protection serves as a complement to the monitoring of outside blockholder. More importantly, there is no evidence that REIT sponsors expropriate unitholders' wealth when there is a weak investor protection in place. Overall, the findings show that Asian REIT unitholders are generally protected, with an average score of 14 out of 18. However, there is still room for improvement to foster an investor confidence to facilitate the development of the Asian REIT market in the future.
    Keywords: Asian Markets; Corporate Governance; REITs
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2015–07–01
  3. By: Lord, Montague; Tangtrongjita, Pawat
    Abstract: Report Objective: This report provides a review and analysis of the findings from the scoping study on the proposed Malaysian–Thailand Special Border Economic Zone (SBEZ). The coverage of the study is guided by the recommendations of the IMT-GT Special Implementation Task Force on the Establishment of a Special Border Economic Zone (hereafter TF-SBEZ) at its meeting in Penang, Malaysia on 22 November 2013. At that time, the TF-SBEZ determined that that present study should be a stand-alone study, comprehensive in nature and cover in-depth all the SBEZ components for each of the eight border crossing areas in the Thai-Malaysian border, including linkages to Indonesia. Based on those findings, the TF-SBEZ requested that the present study make recommendations to the Task Force on the possible location(s) of the SBEZ. The study is part of a broader project that intends to support the establishment of an SBEZ that will help to attract investors in productive activities that promote subregional value chains in order to stimulate cross-border trade and investment, serve as a catalyst to commerce along the IMT-GT corridors and help to substantially improve the social and economic welfare of the population along the border provinces. Implementation: The present consultancy has been carried out between 10 February 2014 and the end of April 2014 under technical assistance provided by the Asian Development Bank. The first field visit of the study team to the Thai side of the border took place on 2-7 March 2014. That fieldwork was preceded by a visit to the border area on the part of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) on 16-24 February 2014 that included two consultant associates from the present team. The second field visit of the study team covered the Malaysian side of the border and took place between 29 March and 4 April 2014. SBEZ Components and Roadmap: Each border crossing has been being assessed on the basis of the following components, details of which are presented in the main body of this report: (a) special economic zone (SEZ) potential; (b) cross-border value chains; (c) transport and logistics; (d) socio-economic development strategy for the area; (e) SME development and business development services: (f) linkages to Indonesia. The proposed SBEZ is best viewed as incremental levels of collaborative of Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. Level 1 would cover the establishment of SBEZ facilities and supporting activities on either or both sides of the border; Level 2 would involve development of cross-border value chains and hard and soft infrastructure supporting the SBEZ; and Level 3 would consist of collaboration in joint SBEZ facilities and supporting activities. This stepwise approach reflects international best practices for the development of cross-border SEZs in Europe, North America and Asia. It ensures that actions on either side of the border move from an informal to formal mechanisms of collaboration, thereby providing an effective mechanisms for achieving long-term goals for the operation of a joint SBEZ. Opportunities at Each Border Crossing Area: There are considerable differences among the bordering Thai provinces and Malaysian states in terms of geography, demographics, development levels, comparative advantages of industries, infrastructure, and potential sector- or industry-level collaboration. Figure S1 summarizes possible areas of collaboration at each border crossing and it reflects the detailed analysis of Part III in this report, where ratings are presented for each of the eight border crossings. Ratings: The ratings of the assessment are summarized visually in Figures S2 and S3. The results show that there are two border crossing areas with the highest ratings: The first is the Su-ngai Kolok – Rantau Panjang in Narathiwat Province of Thailand; the second is the Ban Prakob – Durian Burung border crossing area in Kedah State of Malaysia and Songkhla Province of Thailand. However, they reflect considerable differences in the valuation of parameters for each of the components. Ban Prakob – Durian Burung border crossing has new modern customs facility on both sides, a four lane highway that is currently being completed on the Thai side, and an excellent roadways on the Malaysian side of the border. The area around the border on the Thai side has been designated for farmland and natural preserves, and there could therefore be sensitivity on the part of the local population to the establishment of an SEZ in the border area. Development of part of the SBEZ could, however, be located farther inland, which might eliminate those possible drawbacks.
    Keywords: Special border economic zones, SBEZ, special economic zones, SEZ, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle, IMT-GT, border economic zones, BEZ
    JEL: F13 F14 Q0
    Date: 2014–04–22
  4. By: Olivier CADOT (University of Lausanne, CEPR and FERDI); Lili Yan ING (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) and University of Indonesia)
    Abstract: The upcoming Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a critical element of regional integration in East Asia and the Pacific. While tariffs are already low in this region, non-tariff measures (NTMs) remain a key issue in trade in goods. NTMs may bring consequences on sourcing and enforcement costs and may affect the structure of an industry. ASEAN countries have similar patterns of NTM imposition at the product level. International experience shows that regional trade agreements could reduce regulatory distance by 41 percent. The RCEP could bring East Asian countries to improve transparency of their NTMs and encourage mutual recognition.
    Keywords: : ASEAN, RCEP, non-tariff measure, regional integration, mutual recognition
    Date: 2015–09
  5. By: Gatto, Marcel; Wollni, Meike; Rosyani, Ir.; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: Through contract farming schemes between cohorts of farmers and private companies the Indonesian government intended to spur rural economic development. In particular within the oil palm sector, such community-company 'partnerships' are commonplace. Yet, empirical evidence of the success of these formations remains mixed. In this paper, we investigate the effects of contract farming on economic development at the village level. At the same time, little is understood regarding the fac-tors that determine that cohorts of farmers sign a contract. Analyzing data from a structured village survey, we find a positive effect of contract farming schemes on economic development, in particular on village wealth. The share of farmers under contract and contract length play a significant role in this. Regarding contract adoption, we observe that contract participation is conditional on the visit of a private investor. Controlling for this conditionality, we find that villages that have no access to electricity are more likely to participate in community-company partnerships. Finally, considering the government's intention to spur rural economic development through contract farming and the positive wealth effects associated with it, we find that contract farming has not been entirely equally accessible; however, we do not find evidence that the rural poor were excluded.
    Keywords: oil palm,contract farming,rural development,Indonesia
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Moser, Stefan; Mußhoff, Oliver
    Abstract: This article compares the use of risk-increasing and risk-reducing production inputs with the experimentally measured risk attitudes of farmers. For this purpose, the Just-Pope production function indicates production inputs' influence on output risk and a Holt-Laury lottery is used to measure the producer´s risk attitude. We test whether more risk averse farmers use more risk-reducing and less risk-increasing production inputs. Therefore, we apply a unique data set which includes 185 small-scale farmers which are producing rubber on 260 plots on the island of Sumatra, Indonesia. The Just-Pope production function indicates that fertiliser usage has a risk-reducing effect, whereas herbicide usage and plot size have risk-increasing effects. For labour and plantation age, the influence on output risk is ambiguous. By including the outcome of a Holt-Laury lottery into the analysis, we found the expected result that more risk averse farmers use more (risk-reducing) fertiliser and less (risk-increasing) herbicides. These consistent results provide an example for the external validity of measuring risk attitude with the Holt-Laury lottery.
    Keywords: Holt-Laury lottery,Just-Pope production function,output risk,rubber,Indonesia
    JEL: C91 C93 Q12
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Rafaelita M. ALDABA (Philippine Department of Trade and Industry)
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent and depth of participation of the Philippines in the electronics global value chains (GVC) using Trade in Value Added (TiVA) and extensive margin indicators. While the Philippines remains strong in semiconductors, it is lagging behind other ASEAN countries. According to the TiVA database, the level of participation of the Philippines in the electronics GVC increased substantially between 1995 and 2009. The extensive margins show that the Philippines has been regaining its position in regional production networks as indicated by the rising number of exported products to the region. Attracting more electronic manufacturing services (EMS) companies would be crucial in sustaining the position of the Philippines in regional production networks. The gradually declining trend in the number of imported parts indicates the need to diversify and upgrade the industry’s GVC participation through market upgrading characterised by moving from semiconductors into EMS, particularly in areas with high growth potential such as auto electronics, power electronics, electronic data processing, and consumer electronics. Strengthening competitiveness in semiconductor devices and EMS is necessary to transform and deepen the industry position in the GVC. The upgrading process will require human resources development, establishing an innovation ecosystem, efficient logistics and infrastructure, and developing a parts, supplies, and materials sector to support the industry.
    Keywords: : global value chain, electronics, Philippines
    JEL: F10 L63
    Date: 2015–09
  8. By: Jabbar, Mohammad A.; Ahuja, Vinod
    Abstract: Published by the animal Production and Health Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand
    Keywords: dairy, knowledge, </dc:subject><dc:subject>information, exchange, network, platform, Asia, Pacific, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Q1, Q13, Q17, Q18,
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Moser, Stefan; Mußhoff, Oliver
    Abstract: Palm oil production creates negative externalities, e.g., through intensive fertiliser applica-tion. If policy wants to limit externalities, an effective, sustainable and efficient measure seems desira-ble. Embedded in a framed field experiment in Indonesia, we apply a business simulation game to test ex ante several incentives for reducing the use of fertiliser in palm oil production. These incentives are arranged in the form of different designs, i.e., either a reward or punishment, varying in their magni-tude and probability of occurrence but constant in the effect on expected income. Results show that participants react significantly different depending on the incentive design. A high reward with a low probability to occur has been found to be the most effective and sustainable incentive design. For effi-ciency, a low and certain reward is indicated to be the best design.
    Keywords: policy influence analysis,effective incentive,framed field experiment,business simulation game,palm oil production,Indonesia
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Euler, Michael; Schwarze, Stefan; Siregar, Hermanto; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: Many tropical regions experience a rapid expansion of oil palm, causing massive land use changes and raising serious environmental and social concerns. Indonesia has recently become the largest palm oil producer worldwide. While much of the production in Indonesia comes from large-scale plantations, independently operating smallholders are increasing in importance and may domi-nate production in the future. In order to control the process of land use change, the micro level factors influencing smallholder decisions need to be better understood. We use data from a survey of farm households in Sumatra and a duration model to analyze the patterns and dynamics of oil palm adoption among smallholders. Initially, smallholders were primarily involved in government-supported out-grower schemes, but since the mid-1990s independently operating oil palm farmers have become much more important. In addition to farm and household characteristics, village level factors determine oil palm adoption significantly. Independent smallholders adopt oil palm especially in those villages that also have contracts and out-grower schemes, leading to a regional path-dependency of former government policies.
    Keywords: Oil palm expansion,Land use change,Indonesia,Duration models
    Date: 2015
  11. By: Tambunlertchai, Kanittha (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of financial inclusion in Thailand through the lens of an institutional analysis, which takes into consideration the desired outcomes, the service providers and enabling agencies, and the regulatory context that shape the existing provision of financial inclusion in Thailand. In discussing the achievement of the desired outcomes in terms of financial inclusion, the issues of financial education and financial regulation, which provide the contexts within which the provision of financial products and services occur, are also addressed. Using survey information and other evidence, the paper identifies the gaps between desired and existing outcomes, the gap in unmet demand for financial products and services, the gap in financial education provision, and the weakness of the existing regulatory institutional setting. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for achieving the desired outcomes in terms of financial inclusion within the context of Thailand.
    Keywords: Microfinance Institutions; Financial Inclusion Thailand; Financial Regulation Thailand; Financial Education Thailand
    JEL: G21 G28 O16
    Date: 2015–09–08
  12. By: Doan Thi Thanh Ha (Graduate School of International Social Sciences, Yokohama National University); Kozo Kiyota (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)
    Abstract: This paper attempts to measure the contribution of resource misallocation to aggregate manufacturing TFP, focusing on Vietnamese manufacturing firms for the period 2000-09. Our research questions are threefold. 1) To what extent are resources misallocated in Vietnam? 2) How large would the productivity gains have been in the absence of distortions? 3) Did the degree of misallocation decline after entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO)? The answers to these questions are as follows. First, misallocation in Vietnam is comparable to that in China and India. Second, there would have been substantial improvement in aggregate TFP in the absence of distortions. Finally, the accession to the WTO contributed to reducing the distortions in output markets. However, this positive effect was offset by increasing distortions in capital markets. These results together suggest that further reforms in capital markets could improve aggregate TFP in Vietnam through reduced misallocation.
    Keywords: Local Misallocation, Total factor productivity, Trade liberalization, WTO, Vietnam
    JEL: O47 F14 D22
    Date: 2015–05–29
  13. By: M.Azhar Ab Wahid
    Abstract: Owning a home is a fundamental importance for most of Malaysians. Homeownership has always been one of the concerns amongst the young generation entering adulthood. The increasing trend of home prices may be beyond reach for many Malaysians, especially the young people who are just entering the work force with their existing commitments and expenses. The aim of this study is to identify the earliest possible age of homeownership amongst Generation Y in Malaysia. In order to achieve the research aim, findings for this research to be established are as follows; to examine the housing preference of Generation Y homeownership; to identify the location of property of Generation Y homeownership; and to determine the housing price affordable to Generation Y. The secondary data of residential property transactions in Selangor, Malaysia are used in order to achieve the aim and objectives. The findings of this research are the housing preference for the Generation Y in Selangor and the most preferred location of Generation Y homeownership. The research indicates that the housing price affordable to the Generation Y in Selangor is RM250,000., and for landed property is RM400,000.
    Keywords: Generation Y; Homeownership; Housing
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2015–07–01
  14. By: Euler, Michael; Krishna, Vijesh; Schwarze, Stefan; Siregar, Hermanto; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: The recent expansion of oil palm in Indonesia is largely smallholder-driven. However, its socio-economic implications are under-examined. Analyzing farm-household data from Jambi Province, Sumatra, oil palm adoption is found to have positive consumption and nutrition effects. However, these effects are largely due to farm size expansion that is associated with oil palm adoption. Potential heterogeneity of effects among oil palm adopters is examined using quantile regressions. While nutrition effects of oil palm adoption are found to be homogenous across quantiles, the effects on non-food expenditure are expressed more strongly at the upper end of the expenditure distribution.
    Keywords: non-food cash crops,oil palm expansion,smallholder livelihoods,quantile regression,Indonesia
    Date: 2015
  15. By: Suahasil Nazara (IPC-IG); Sri Kusumastuti Rahayu (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: : Pada tahun 2007 Pemerintah Indonesia meluncurkan Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH), program bantuan dana tunai bersyarat pertama di Indonesia. Program ini bertujuan meningkatkan kualitas manusia dengan memberikan bantuan dana tunai bersyarat bagi keluarga miskin dalam mengakses layanan kesehatan dan pendidikan tertentu. PKH membantu mengurangi beban pengeluaran rumah tangga yang sangat miskin (dampak konsumsi langsung), seraya berinvestasi bagi generasi masa depan melalui peningkatan kesehatan dan pendidikan (dampak pengembangan modal manusia). Kombinasi bantuan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang ini merupakan strategi pemerintah dalam mengentaskan kemiskinan bagi para penerima PKH ini selamanya.PKH dikelola oleh Kementerian Sosial (Kemensos), dengan pengawasan ketat Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (Bappenas). Program ini mulai beroperasi pada tahun 2007 sebagai program rintisan (pilot) yang disertai unsur penelitian di dalamnya.Di awal kebijakan, pelaksanaan program rintisan ini menunjukkan kemajuan yang lamban, terlihat pada terbatasnya cakupan program(dalam pengertian jumlah keluarga maupun wilayah penerima manfaat). Sejak tahun 2010 Sekretariat Tim Nasional Percepatan Penanggulangan Kemiskinan (TNP2K), di Kantor Wakil Presiden, mulai mendorong perluasan cakupan PKH, yang berdampak pada penyelenggaraan program yang lebih efisien dan berdampak positif bagi penduduk miskin
    Keywords: Program Keluarga Harapan
    Date: 2014–01
  16. By: Gatto, Marcel; Wollni, Meike; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: We investigate land-use dynamics in Jambi, Sumatra, one of the hotspots of Indonesia' recent oil palm boom. Data from a structured village survey are used to analyze the role of socioeconomic and policy factors. Oil palm is partly grown on large plantations, but smallholders are also involved significantly. We find that, in spite of significant oil palm expansion, rubber remains the dominant crop. Most of the oil palm growth takes place on previous fallow and rubber land. Oil palm has not been a major driver of deforestation. Much of the forest in Jambi was cleared more than 20 years ago, and rubber was an established cash crop long before the oil palm boom started. However, oil palm growth occurs in locations with ongoing logging activities, so indirect effects on deforestation are likely. The government's transmigration program of the 1980s and 1990s was instrumental for the start and spread of oil palm in Jambi. Some autochthonous villages have adopted oil palm, but adoption started later compared to migrants from Java, and it happens at a slower pace. While the transmigration program benefited many of the participating families, it has contributed to the risk of unequal socioeconomic developments in Jambi.
    Keywords: oil palm,land-use change,deforestation,socioeconomic factors,Indonesia,government policy
    Date: 2014
  17. By: Krishna, Vijesh V.; Euler, Michael; Siregar, Hermanto; Fathoni, Zakky; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: The study examines the heterogeneous livelihood impacts of oil palm expansion among smallholder farmers in Jambi Province, Sumatra. Per-capita annual consumption expenditure (PACE) is chosen as a quantitative measure of livelihood status of farm-households. Its determinants are estimated using standard treatment-effect and endogenous switching regression models. After controlling for self-selection bias, adopters of oil palm are found increasing their PACE significantly in comparison to the counterfactual. On the other hand, most of the non-adopters are better-off without oil palm, presenting a strong case of comparative advantage. Differential consumption impacts of observed variables are evident across adoption and non-adoption regimes. In general, farm-households with higher opportunity cost of family labour benefit disproportionately more with oil palm adoption.
    Keywords: adoption,agricultural development,endogenous switching,impact,Indonesia,farmer welfare
    JEL: O12 O33 Q12 P36 R14
    Date: 2015
  18. By: Kopp, Thomas; Alamsyah, Zulkifli; Fatricia, Raja Sharah; Brümmer, Bernhard
    Abstract: In Indonesia the agricultural sector plays a key role for broad based economic development in rural areas. Rubber is one of the most important crops, and Indonesia is the second largest producer in the world. However, a high level of concentration in the processing industry limits the spread of the incoming wealth. In Jambi province on Sumatra, the strong market power of the crumb rubber factories is based on cartelization. This has tremendously negative welfare effects on the rural population, effects which are also likely to be relevant for many other provinces throughout Indonesia. For the society in general and policy makers specifically, it is essential to know about the extent of the whole issue. Thus we study the price transmission at these factories and assess their true market power. We make use of the non-parametric estimation technique of penalized splines in order to understand the error correcting process without having to make a priori assumptions about it. We then estimate an Auto-Regressive Asymmetric Threshold Error Correction Model to quantify both the extent of the threshold effect as well as the rents that are redistributed from the farmers to the factories. The analysis is based on daily price information from a period of four years (2009-2012). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to quantify the additional distributional consequences of intertemporal marketing margin manipulation based on cartelistic market power.
    Keywords: intertemporal marketing margin manipulation,rubber cartel,Indonesia,asymmetric price transmission,threshold co-integration
    Date: 2014
  19. By: Ludovic Gauvin; Cyril Rebillard
    Abstract: China’s rapid growth over the past decade has been one of the main drivers of the rise in mineral commodity demand and prices. At a time when concerns about the sustainability of China’s growth model are rising, this paper assesses to what extent a hard landing in China would impact other countries, with a focus on trade and commodity price channels. After reviewing the main arguments pointing to a hard landing scenario – historical rebalancing precedents, overinvestment, unsustainable debt trends, and a growing real estate bubble – we focus on a sample of 36 countries, and use a global VAR methodology adapted to conditional forecasting to simulate the impact of a Chinese hard landing. We model metal and oil markets separately to account for their different end-use patterns and consumption intensity in China, and we identify three specific transmission channels to net commodity exporters: through real exports, through income effects (related to commodity prices), and through investment (a fall in commodity prices reducing incentives to invest in the mining and energy sectors); we also look at the role played by the exchange rate as a shock absorber. According to our estimates, emerging economies (ex. China) would be hardest hit – with a 7.5 percent cumulated growth loss after five years –, in particular in South-East Asia but also in commodity-exporting regions such as Latin America; advanced economies would be less affected. The "growth gap" between emerging and advanced economies would be considerably reduced, leading to partial recoupling.
    Keywords: China, hard landing, spillovers, global VAR, conditional forecast, commodities, recoupling.
    JEL: C32 F44 E32 E17 F47 Q02
    Date: 2015
  20. By: Adam Posen (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Nicolas Veron (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Given no generally accepted framework for financial stability, policymakers in developing Asia need to manage, not avoid, financial deepening. This paper supports Asian policymakers’ judgment through analysis of the recent events in the United States and Europe and of earlier crisis episodes, including Asia during the 1990s. There is no simple linear relationship between financial repression and stability—financial repression not only has costs but, so doing can itself undermine stability. Bank-centric financial systems are not inherently safer than systems that include meaningful roles for securities and capital markets. Domestic financial systems should be steadily diversified in terms of both number of domestic competitors and types of savings and lending instruments available (and thus probably types of institutions). Financial repression should be focused on regulating the activities of financial intermediaries, not on compressing interest rates for domestic savers. Cross-border lending should primarily involve creation of multinational banks’ subsidiaries in the local economy—and local currency lending and bond issuance should be encouraged. Macroprudential tools can be useful, and, if anything, are more effective in less open or less financially deep economies than in more advanced financial centers.
    Keywords: Financial stability, fi nancial development, nonbank institutions, macroprudential policy, capital flows
    JEL: E44 G28 O16
    Date: 2015–09
  21. By: Sudarno SUMARTO (The SMERU Research Institute); Sarah MOSELLE (The SMERU Research Institute)
    Abstract: This paper aims to review and analyse the mechanisms through which the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) quantifies progress vis-à-vis poverty and socio-economic development. Drawing on analytic literature and international experience, this paper details specific reforms that the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community could consider adopting to holistically capture the specific vulnerabilities faced by the ASEAN region and more accurately measure progress in implementing the ASEAN post-2015 vision. These recommendations most significantly include revising the formulation of the purchasing power parity poverty line, harmonising data collection efforts and introducing an ASEAN panel survey, and leveraging the comparatively rich availability of household data among member states to create an ASEAN-specific multidimensional poverty index.
    Keywords: : ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community; vulnerability; regional coordination; statistical harmonisation; non-income–based poverty measures
    JEL: I3 D63 I32
    Date: 2015–09
  22. By: OECD
    Abstract: The top-performing country in the PISA assessment of digital reading was Singapore, followed by Korea, Hong Kong-China, Japan, Canada and Shanghai-China. Students in Australia, Canada, Ireland, Korea, Singapore and the United States show the most advanced web-browsing skills. More often than students elsewhere, they carefully select links to follow before clicking on them, and follow relevant links for as long as is needed to answer a question. There is a strong association between countries’ digital reading performance and the quality of students’ navigation across digital texts.
    Date: 2015–09–15
  23. By: M.Mohd Ghaza Rahman; M.Mohd Raid; A.'Che Kasim; K. Hussin
    Abstract: Green building concept, a trend in developed nations, has spread to Malaysia. The green features improve the functions of buildings and promises higher returns. Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) and Innovation (IN) are among six criteria of Green Building Index (GBI) that building owner needs to attain for its building to be certified as â€green" in Malaysia. The benefit of IEQ is to create conducive indoor environment for building occupants for living and working. While IN is to meet the objectives of GBI through green building design initiatives and sustainable construction practices. The research question is does IEQ and IN features give direct impact to residential property price? Therefore, this paper will review the broad literature regarding the impacts of indoor environmental quality (IEQ) and innovation (IN) for residential property and its implication to market price and rent. The early hypothesis of this paper anticipate that innovation (IN) and indoor environmetal quality (IEQ) features will indirectly increase residential property market price and rent in spite of the lack of comparative financial data. From this paper, it is hope that the positive impacts of these features will encourage building owners, developers and other main development actors to put these criteria into the same consideration as other criteria in GBI as one of the way to compensate the impact of the building towards economic, environment and social features.
    Keywords: Green Building Features; Green Building Index (GBI); Indoor Environmental Quality; Innovation; Property Price And Rental
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2015–07–01
  24. By: Neda Trifkovi?
    Abstract: Most studies focus on trade effects and organizational outcomes of international standards, neglecting the effect of standards on employees. Using a two-year matched firmâ..employee panel dataset, this paper finds that the application of standards improves work conditions in small and medium enterprises in Vietnam. Certified firms pay higher wages on average. They are also more likely to offer formal contracts and to pay social and health insurance to workers. The estimation accounts for endogenous matching of workers with firms and unobserved heterogeneity using an instrumental variable approach. The study reveals unexpected benefits from certification, calling for higher investment in standards.
    Date: 2015
  25. By: Krishna, Vijesh V.; Pascual, Unai; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: This paper empirically examines the emergence and functioning of land markets and their impacts on deforestation in Sumatra, Indonesia. While the evolution of land markets is expected to promote deforestation activities by rural households, we find no sizeable impact, due to two major reasons. First, land transactions occur in cultural and spatial isolation from forest encroachment. Second, the emergence of speculative land markets, which could accelerate deforestation, is evaded through institutional constraints, primarily weak property rights on land. However, while land markets do not promote deforestation, they also do not deter forestland appropriation, because of ambiguous legal frameworks.
    Keywords: Forest conservation,Indonesia,Land resources,Plantation crops,Property rights,Open access
    JEL: O13 Q12 Q15 Q23 R14
    Date: 2014
  26. By: Hauser-Schäublin, Brigitta; Steinebach, Stefanie
    Abstract: The Harapan region is governed by a web of regulations. The corresponding allocation of land is informed by the demands of the international market and Indonesia's policy to supply it with the products needed. Thus, human interactions with the rainforest transformation systems are largely determined by external economic drivers. Taking the anthropology of globalization as a starting point, our paper outlines the relationships between international demands, state regulations, the allocation of land, and the way local people, whose rights have been disregarded for decades, and migrants make use of it locally, often in conflict with the state and concession holders.
    Keywords: Harapan,Sumatra,globalization,land regulations,land allocations,land use
    Date: 2014
  27. By: E. Kurtbegu; J. Caicedo-Llano
    Abstract: A new bootstrap technique is applied to analyze the performance of a set of Asian REITs and make selections based on the best performers. The cross-section of Asian REITs being non-normal, these techniques are quite useful. The risk-adjusted performance issued from traditional asset pricing models will be analyzed with bootstrapping tools that will also allow controlling for multiple testing problems usually encountered when analyzing the cross-section of returns. "published in the “Handbook of Asian Finance,†edited by David Lee and Gregoriou,2014."
    Keywords: Asian REITs; Bootstrap Selection; Control In Multiple Testing; False Discovery Rate; Portfolio Performance
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2015–07–01
  28. By: Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ramos, Tatum; Magtibay, Jasmine E.
    Abstract: The Community Mortgage Program (CMP) is a financing scheme that enables organized residents of slums to borrow for land purchase and housing development. It is considered to be the most innovative and responsive government housing program in the Philippines. Nevertheless, the CMP has a number of weaknesses that have not been given much attention in the years of program implementation. These issues pertain to program targeting, service delivery, and organization. This study aims to review the current processes and overall performance of the CMP including its variants—the localized CMP and the High Density Housing Program. It also provides recommendations on how the identified problems can be addressed.
    Keywords: Philippines, housing, informal settlers, community loan mortgage
    Date: 2015
  29. By: Francisco, Jamil Paolo S.
    Abstract: This study identifies the factors influencing household choice of coping strategy to an extreme flood event in Marikina City in the National Capital Region of the Philippines, as well as household recovery after the event, measured in terms of the length of time to repair, rebuild, or replace damaged property. A survey of 400 households was conducted to obtain data. A multinomial logistic model was used to analyze coping strategy choice among three possible alternatives: (1) reactive and short-term anticipatory behavior only, (2) reactive and anticipatory behavior plus general long-term preventive measures, and (3) reactive and anticipatory behavior plus preventive and proactive measures. Results showed that wealth, income, learning from past experience, advice from the media, and people's perceptions/attitudes toward natural disasters had significant influences on household choice. With regard to recovery, household income, access to credit (borrowing), the use of a flood alarm system, access to safe shelter, membership in a community organization, adoption of disaster-specific anticipatory measures, and adoption of general preventive measures significantly reduced the time it took for affected households to recover from property damage. Evacuation, relief aid, type of housing, education, household size, and frequency of flooding in the area did not have significant effects.
    Keywords: Philippines, coping recovery, flood, natural disaster, adaptive behavior
    Date: 2015
  30. By: Khan, Haider A.; Dost, Ahmad Najim
    Abstract: How does Japanese aid influence the allocation of government expenditures and the raising of government revenues? Using a non-linear model with an asymmetric loss function the case of Japanese aid to Thailand is examined at the macroeconomic level with a large time-series data set for 1960-2012. It turns out that Japanese aid led to proportionately more development expenditures than did other aid. It also might have been positively related to an increased effort by the Thai government to raise taxes. Economic explanations based on a set of bounded rationality model are advanced. Econometric and institutional explanations are also offered. The three sets of explanations can be seen as overlapping and complementary in this case.
    Keywords: Japanese aid, Non-linear Models, Development Expenditures, Non-Development Expenditures, Bounded Rationality, Asymmetric Loss, Thai Policy Makers.
    JEL: F35 H30 O23
    Date: 2015–09–10
  31. By: Kopp, Thomas; Bümmer, Bernhard
    Abstract: While traders of agricultural products are known to often exercise market power, this power has rarely been quantified for developing countries. In order to derive a measure, we estimate the traders' revenue functions and calculate the Marginal Value Products directly from them. We subsequently find determinants affecting their individual market power. An exceptional data set with detailed information on the business practices of rubber traders in Jambi, Indonesia is employed. Results show that market power at the traders' level exists and is substantial. This market power is amplified in situations of extreme remoteness, and weakens with increasing market size.
    Keywords: Trader Survey,Market Power,Lerner Index,Marginal Value Products,Indonesia
    JEL: F14 Q13 L14
    Date: 2015
  32. By: S.Faziah Abd Rasid
    Abstract: The National Land Code (NLC) was amended in 1990 to enable the state authority to issue stratum title for underground space. Stratum Title can be separated from land titles issued for surface land. This is stipulated in Part 5(A) under Section 92A to 92G. According to Section 92G (1), underground land can be used for any purpose provided approval is obtained from the authority, which is the federal government.In relation to underground development with many utilities, the appraisal of real estate related to underground land use involved some unusual circumstances. Ordinary appraisal concerned with a total bundle of rights referred to as fee simple interests and it is generally assumed that the use and enjoyment of real property rights relates to the surface of the land. However, there are several below-surface uses of land that require a real estate appraisal.In this research study, it is the intention to look on the legislation issues related with Stratum Title, to examine the differences exist between Stratum Title and underground development in other countries. Also to determine the factors that affecting the stratum interest and to assess and analyses the valuation issues that impact on Stratum Title and renew possible valuation approaches and methodologies that could be applied in the Malaysian context.
    Keywords: Stratum Title; Subterranean Space; Underground Development; Valuation Methodologies And Techniques
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2015–07–01
  33. By: L. Chin
    Abstract: In Singapore, the retail sector is one of the highest consumers of energy per floor area, with tenants within a retail mall accounting for approximately 50 per cent of the building’s total energy consumption (BCA, 2013). This reflects the need to reduce the energy consumption of retail tenants to enhance the mall’s sustainability, and to lower the carbon footprint of the retail sector in Singapore. Going green has been adopted in many developed countries such as Australia, Europe, Canada, and USA. The aim is to encourage both landlords and tenants to minimize adverse environmental impact, and is widely known as a powerful mechanism to drive carbon dioxide savings in commercial properties. However, sustainable developments are a relatively new phenomenon in Singapore. This study examines how the implementation of sustainability practices and approaches can contribute to an increase in overall patronage to a mall, and if shopper characteristics such as their education levels and ethnicities will influence their perceptions on the need and benefits of sustainability in retail malls. The results obtained a sample of two malls found that most shoppers are more incentivized to increase patronage to malls with sustainability practices including the introduction of green leases.
    Keywords: Energy Conservation; Green Leases; Retail Malls; Singapore; Sustainable Developments
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2015–07–01
  34. By: I. Erol; D. Tirtiroglu
    Abstract: The legal foundation of the Turkish Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) structure, put in place in 1995, is considerably different and more complex than those observed elsewhere and predates those in Singapore, Japan, France, and the UK. Our paper builds on the unique legal and institutional details about Turkish REITs, as elaborated in Erol and Tirtiroglu (2011), and studies the pricing of their initial public offerings (IPO) between 1996 and September 2014. Turkish REITs enjoy complete flexibility in their dividend policy while being exempted from corporate taxes and also exhibit a legally mandated concentrated ownership structure. Further, they have some legally allowed flexibility in the asset allocation of their portfolios. While Turkey exhibits substantial macroeconomic uncertainty early on, it abates quite visibly, even during the Global Financial Crisis, since mid-2000s. We document empirically underpricing in the late 1990s and early 2000s and then fair or overpricing in late 2000s and early 2010s. This finding differs from those of no underpricing for REIT IPOs from the US market beyond the late 1990s. As a control sample, we also focus on all non-REIT Turkish IPOs issued during the same sample period and offer comparative evidence on the pricing of REIT and non-REIT IPOs.
    Keywords: Concentrated Ownership; Dividend Payout; Ipo Pricing; Turkish Reits
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2015–07–01
  35. By: Hettig, Elisabeth; Lay, Jann; Sipangule, Kacana
    Abstract: This paper reviews 70 recent empirical and theoretical studies that analyse land-use change at the farm-household level. The review builds on a conceptual framework of land-use change drivers and conducts a meta-analysis. It turns out that the most frequently analysed scenario is the conversion of non-used forests or forested areas into land used for agricultural purposes about a third of all considered scenarios. The second largest share is accounted for by studies that look into the conver-sion of non-used forests or forested areas into ranching. Most studies analyse land-use change using household and/or village data and, in doing so, often rely on relatively small samples of 100-200 ob-servations. There is a clear regional concentration of studies on Central and South America and some studies on African countries, with only few studies on Asian countries. This is surprising, since evi-dence hints at high deforestation rates in South-East Asia due to logging activities and plantation agri-culture. We find that a number of studies face problems of internal validity because of endogeneity (simultaneity and reverse causality) and omitted variable bias that are not adequately addressed. De-spite these weaknesses, the literature points at micro-level economic growth, for example in income and capital endowments, as a strong catalyst of human induced land-use change. The rich reviewed empirical literature illustrates the complexity of micro-level land-use change processes, in particular the inter-relationships between household-level characteristics, factor market conditions, and land-use change. These are conditioned by institutions and policies. In particular, the market-oriented re-forms adopted by many developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s seem to have had an important role in altering land use, while impacts of more recent policies, like PES or REDD+, still need to be bet-ter explored. However, the empirical designs of many reviewed studies fail to properly account for this complexity. Finally, the review reveals a lack of interdisciplinary work that uses integrated data and models to analyse land-use change.
    Keywords: land-use change,farm households,deforestation,meta-analysis,micro-level
    JEL: Q12 O57 R14 Q15
    Date: 2015
  36. By: A. Moss; H. Vrensen; N. Almond
    Abstract: There has been significant interest over the last three years in combining listed real estate securities with direct or unlisted real estate to provide a "blended" investment solution, which both improves liquidity and optimises risk adjusted returns over the cycle. Following recent work on combining a UK direct portfolio with a global listed portfolio, we have expanded our geographic sample to Asia, Europe, and the US. Data: We use the new series of transaction based real estate indices provided by DTZ in Europe and Asia, but for the US we use the Moodys CPPI Index._We will use the IPD and NCREIF valuation based indices for the UK, Europe and Asia, respectively For listed securities we use the EPRA Global developed Index. Our data covers the period 2002-2014 Purpose: The aim of the study is to answer four questions: 1) Is the benefit to risk-adjusted returns shown for incorporating global listed real estate securities with a UK direct property fund also apparent if the direct property element comprises European, Asian, and/or US assets? 2) How does the performance impact change over the cycle? 3) Is there a benefit to using transaction rather than appraisal based indices for the US and Europe? 4) Do the results alter materially if global real estate securities funds data is used rather than the EPRA Index?
    Keywords: Blended Portfolios; Global real estate; Indices; Investment Strategies; Transaction based indices
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2015–07–01
  37. By: Mariano Kulish (School of Economics, University of New South Wales); Daniel Rees (Reserve Bank of Australia)
    Abstract: The ongoing development of Asia has led to unprecedented changes in the terms of trade of commodity-exporting economies. Using a small open economy model we estimate changes in the long-run level and variance of Australia's terms of trade and study the quantitative implications of these changes. We find that the long-run prices of commodities that Australia exports started to increase significantly in mid 2003 and that the volatility of shocks to commodity prices doubled soon after. The persistent increase in the level of commodity prices is smaller than single-equation estimates suggest, but our inferences rely on many observables that in general equilibrium also respond to shifts in the long-run level of the terms of trade.
    Keywords: Bayesian analysis; open economy macroeconomics; terms of trade
    JEL: C11 F41 Q33
    Date: 2015–08
  38. By: M. Cheung; C. Lei
    Abstract: We study the cointegrating relationship(s) between public and private market pricing of real estate using international data for U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada, Singapore and Japan from 2001 to 2013. Unlike earlier studies in the literature, we employ a unique dataset of property transaction to form public and private return pairs around transaction windows, not by regular calendar days. We estimate the normalized Gonzalo and Granger (1995) common factor loadings of the public and private real estate markets by vector error-correction models and find significant proportion of price discovery from the private markets of U.K., Australia, Singapore and Japan, in contrast to previous studies. However we also find significant heterogeneity across property types and individual firms within each type. Further investigation of the VECM suggests that variances of price innovation and the short-run dynamic adjustment mechanism change significantly over the recent crisis. Our results are robust to the (de)leverage of REIT returns and length of transaction windows.
    Keywords: Price Discovery; Property Type; Public and Private Real Estate; REITs; Vecm
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2014–01–01
  39. By: A. Moss; K. Farrelly
    Abstract: This paper looks at the effectiveness of Alternative Index (Smart Beta) strategies for funds concentrated in listed real estate equities. In particular, we examine not just the impact on raw returns relative to a standard (free float market capitalisation weighted) benchmark throughout the cycle, but in particular we look at the subsequent level of tracking error and compromise in liquidity to determine appropriate risk adjusted returns. The paper use the EPRA Global Developed Index as the benchmark, and looks at monthly data over a 20 year period (June 1994-2014) for three regions; North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The periods are divided into distinct phases of the cycle to determine the effectiveness of each strategy, in each region, at each stage of the cycle. The weighting strategies we use are: Equal Weighting, Fundamental (Gross assets and NOI), Valuation (Relative Dividend Yield, and Price to Book Value), Volatility, and Leverage The usefulness of Alternative Indices in asset allocation has been examined in detail for generalist equity funds, but there is little literature on the impact on sector specific funds in general, and real estate securities funds in particular. The results provide valuable insights into how superior risk adjusted returns can be generated at different stages of the cycle by tilting the portfolio concentration away from free float market capitalisation towards alternative medium term buy-and-hold strategies, whilst minimising risk as defined by tracking error and liquidity reduction.
    Keywords: Alternative Index; Investment Strategies; Mutual Funds; REITs; Smart Beta
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2015–07–01
  40. By: Schwarze, Stefan; Euler, Michael; Gatto, Marcel; Hein, J.; Hettig, Elisabeth; Holtkamp, Anna Mareike; Izhar, Lutfi; Kunz, Y.; Lay, J.; Merten, J.; Moser, S.; Mußhoff, O.; Otten, Fenna; Qaim, M.; Soetarto, Endriatmo; Steinebach, S.; Trapp, K.; Vorlaufer, Miriam; Faust, Heiko
    Abstract: The rapid expansion of the oil palm area in many tropical countries has raised concerns about its negative impact on local communities, food security, and on the environment. While the expansion of oil palm in early stages was mainly driven by large private and public companies, it is expected that smallholders will outnumber large estates in the near future. For policy formulation it is hence important to better understand who these smallholders are and why they have started to cultivate oil palm. In this paper, we used a rich dataset collected in the province of Jambi, which is one of the most important production areas for oil palm, to analyse smallholders' decision making by combining qualitative, quantitative, and experimental methods. We identified agricultural expertise, lacking flexibility in labour requirements, availability of seedlings, and investment costs as the major constraints for farmers to cultivate oil palm. Important reasons for oil palm cultivation are the higher returns to labour and the shorter immature phase of oil palm. We also showed that oil palm farmers are neither risk-averse nor risk-loving, rather, they appear to be risk-neutral.
    Keywords: smallholders,crop choice,oil palm,rubber,Indonesia
    Date: 2015
  41. By: Sultan, Maryam; Munir, Kashif
    Abstract: This paper aims to find export, import and total trade determinants and potential of Pakistan by using augmented gravity model. Panel data for the period ranging from 2000 to 2013 across 38 countries has been used for analysis. The results obtained from gravity model confirms that export and import determinants are different from total trade determinants. Similarly, export and import potentials of Pakistan are different from total trade determinants. Pakistan has highest trade potential with Norway and Hungry while for exports the highest potential exist with Switzerland and Hungry and in case of imports Pakistan has highest potential with Norway followed by Philippines, Portugal and Greece. Border sharing countries offer lower transportation cost due to minimum distance as compared to non-border sharing countries. China and India are two major border sharing countries but only with China, Pakistan has exhausted its trade potential (both export and import potential).
    Keywords: Export, Import, Trade, Determinants, Potential, Gravity Model
    JEL: F1 F14 F15
    Date: 2015–09–14
  42. By: Y.Leng Chow; S.Eng Ong
    Abstract: Research in psychology and behavioral studies have shown that integrity validation by way of meta-analysis is important in predicting job performance and counterproductive job behaviors (Deniz, Chockalingam and Schmidt, 1993). Dependability testing for personnel selection is also routinely carried out by financial institutions and government agencies (Sackett, Burris and Callahan, 1989). The application of personality profiling for real estate salespeople is largely absent in the literature save for isolated work (see Brinkmann, 2009). Thus, the objective of this study is to carry out a personality profiling exercise for real estate salespeople in Singapore and coupled with their corresponding observable characteristics such as age, gender, qualifications, etc., to identify both an empirical and personality profile of successful real estate salespeople in Singapore. Using these results, we can further compare this profile with their Western counterparts to check if there are cross-cultural differences. The first phase of our study was carried out in December 2013. 185 respondents from one brokerage agency firm took our 16 PF test. Out of these respondents, 25% (47 pax) were identified to be in the Top 300 ranking in terms of sales performance. We are currently preparing to implement the second phase of our study for respondents from two other agency firms. In terms of methodology, we adopted the Sixteen Personality Factor Questionnaire (16PF) developed by Raymond Cattell. The idea is that we could better understand and predict human behavior using 16 narrow personality descriptors (such as warmth, reasoning, emotional stability, etc.) and 5 broader primary personality descriptors (such as extraversion, anxiety, independence, etc.). We were able to match the subject's personality indicators with observable characteristics (age, gender, education level, number of years with company and whether the salesperson joined from a different agency). We ran a probit model using a dummy indicator of one to identify the top salespeople (Top 300 ranking) as the dependent variable and the list of 16 narrow personality descriptors and observable characteristics as the explanatory variables. Our initial results indicate that in terms of observable characteristics, top salespeople tend to be younger, more educated, and have stayed with the company for a longer period of time. The last finding hints at a possible survivorship bias; that is, only performing sales
    Keywords: Cross Cultural; Personality Indicators; Successful Salespeople
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2015–07–01
  43. By: Lacombe, Guillaume; Douangsavanh, Somphasith; Vogel, R.; McCartney, Matthew; Chemin, Yann; Rebelo, Lisa-Maria; Sotoukee, Touleelor
    Abstract: Increasing demographic pressure, economic development and resettlement policies in the Lower Mekong Basin induce greater population dependency on river flow to satisfy growing domestic and agricultural water demands. This dependency is particularly tight in upland areas where alternative water resources (groundwater) are scarce. As a result, communities tend to live closer to rivers, and so are more vulnerable to floods. This situation requires improved knowledge of flow variability for better management of water resources and risks. Unfortunately, stream flow measurements are scarce, especially in remote areas inhabited by the poorest and most vulnerable populations. Several water resource models have been developed to simulate and predict flows in the Lower Mekong Basin. However, most of these models have been designed to predict flow along the Mekong mainstream, precluding accurate assessments in headwater catchments. In most cases, their complexity and lack of transparency restricts potential users to modelling experts, and largely excludes those practitioners working closely with affected populations. The most integrated and informative way to characterize flow, at a specific location on a river, is to compute a flow duration curve which provides the percentage of time (duration) any particular flow is exceeded over a historical period. Using hydro-meteorological records from more than 60 gauged catchments in the Lower Mekong Basin, and a 90-meter digital elevation model, we used multiple linear regressions to develop power-law models predicting flow duration curves. These simple equations allow assessment of low, medium and high flow metrics, at any point on rivers in the Lower Mekong Basin, using easily determined geomorphological and climate characteristics. We believe that this parsimonious, transparent and highly predictive tool (89% <R2< 95%) can be used by a wide range of practitioners working in the fields of livelihood, water infrastructure engineering and agriculture.
    Keywords: Water resources, Risk management, Statistical methods, Models, River basins, Catchment areas, South East Asia, Mekong Basin, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2014
  44. By: Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M.; Tarigan, Suria; Wiegand, Kerstin
    Abstract: Land-use changes have transformed tropical landscapes throughout the past decades dramatically. We describe here an ecologicaleconomic land-use change model to provide an integrated,exploratory tool to analyze how tropical land use and land-use change affect ecological and socio- conomic functions. The guiding question of the model is what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. The economic submodel simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption and a Leontief production function. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides about land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological submodel includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above- and belowground vegetation. Initialized with realistic or artificial land use maps, the ecological-economic model will advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the trade-offs and synergies of ecological and economic functions in tropical landscapes.
    Keywords: ecological-economic model,land-use change,smallholder,oil palm,rubber,Indonesia,simulation model,NetLogo
    Date: 2015

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