nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2015‒09‒11
twenty-two papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Financial Inclusion, Financial Education, and Financial Regulation: A Story from Indonesia By Tambunan, Tulus
  2. Strengthening Regional Cooperation, Coordination, and Response to Health Concerns in the ASEAN Region: Status, Challenges, and Ways Forward By Jacob KUMARESAN; Suvi HUIKURI
  3. Indonesia’s Single Registry for Social Protection Programmes By Adama Bah; Suahasil Nazara; Elan Satriawan
  4. Strengthening Natural Resources Management in ASEAN: National and Regional Imperatives, Targets, and Opportunities By Kaliappa KALIRAJAN; Kazi Arif Uz ZAMAN; Gaminiratne WIJESEKERE
  5. Indonesia’s Single Registry for Social Protection Programmes By Adama Bah; Suahasil Nazara; Elan Satriawan
  6. SME Credit Risk Analysis Using Bank Lending Data: An Analysis of Thai SMEs By Yoshino, Naoyuki; Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad; Charoensivakorn, Phadet; Niraula, Baburam
  7. Trading Costs in East Asia’s Global Value Chains By Lord, Montague; Artuso, Fabio; Record, Richard; Clarke, Julian
  8. Bantuan Siswa Miskin (BSM): Indonesian Cash Transfer Programme for Poor Students By Dyah Larasati; Fiona Howell
  9. Returns to Education and the Demand for Labour in Vietnam By McGuinness, Seamus; Kelly, Elish; Pham Thi Thu, Phuong; Ha Thi Thu, Thuy
  10. Singapore: Staff Report for 2015 Article IV Consultation By International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
  11. East Asian Industrial Pioneers: Japan, Korea and Taiwan By Dwight H. Perkins; John P. Tang
  12. Stochastic Transfers, Risky Investment and Incomes: Evidence from an Income Guarantee Program in Thailand By Wagener, Andreas; Zenker, Juliane
  13. Singapore: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
  14. Did Scarce Global Savings Finance the US Real Estate Bubble? The “Global Saving Glut” thesis from a Stock Flow Consistent Perspective By Fabian Lindner
  15. Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño By Paul Cashin; Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi
  16. Samoa: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Banking Supervision and Regulation-Technical Note By International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
  17. Registro Único de Indonesia para los programas de protección social By Adama Bah; Suahasil Nazara; Elan Satriawan
  18. A Coasian Model of International Production Chains By Thibault Fally; Russell Hillberry
  19. Social paradigms of the digital marketing- an Indian perspective of Social Media Marketing By Malhotra, Deepika
  20. Experiences with Macroprudential Policy—Five Case Studies By Salim M. Darbar; Xiaoyong Wu
  21. Bantuan Siswa Miskin (BSM): Indonesian Cash Transfer Programme for Poor Students By Dyah Larasati; Fiona Howell
  22. A Concrete Example of the Transfer Problem with Multiple Equilibria By Minwook KANG

  1. By: Tambunan, Tulus (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Many reforms have taken place in Indonesia following the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998. The government has embarked upon institutional transformation, making the country one of the region’s most vibrant democracies. In social, economic, and political areas, Indonesia has seen much progress. Wide reforms have been carried out in all areas of governance, including in the financial sector, and a new development strategy has been adopted for “inclusive” economic development. This paper examines the shift in Indonesia’s national economic development strategy from its “exclusive” orientation during the New Order era before the Asian financial crisis, to its “inclusive” orientation after the crisis. It also examines the impact the reforms have had on poverty reduction and the campaign to create a better environment for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). The constraints that Indonesia faces in implementing inclusive development, particularly financial inclusion, are also discussed.
    Keywords: Financial inclusion; Bank of Indonesia; Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR); micro enterprises (MIEs); micro; small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
    JEL: G21 G28 I25
    Date: 2015–09–02
  2. By: Jacob KUMARESAN (WHO Office at the United Nations, New York, USA); Suvi HUIKURI (WHO Office at the United Nations, New York, USA)
    Abstract: Health and well-being of the population are a precondition for any successful country or region. All regions have their specific health challenges that vary according to geographic, social, cultural, and economic conditions. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as a well-established regional actor, has a great potential to influence the health condition of its population through various measures and at different levels. Individual states have the key role to play in protecting and promoting health especially as regional cooperation for health is becoming more important. This paper examines regional and sub-regional health concerns of Southeast Asia focusing on the 10 ASEAN Member States: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam. It aims to give an overview of the Southeast Asian region’s existing cooperation in health with regional and global actors; describe the current status of health – maternal and child mortality, communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, health systems, and health financing; and provide recommendations on strengthening regional cooperation, coordination, and responses to existing and emerging health challenges, and improving health systems to meet the future needs of the region.
    Keywords: : ASEAN, health status, regional cooperation for health, health services, universal health coverage, health challenges
    Date: 2015–09
  3. By: Adama Bah (IPC-IG); Suahasil Nazara (IPC-IG); Elan Satriawan (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: Indonesia began to implement targeted social assistance programmes for both households and individuals in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The crisis had halted Indonesias economic growth and caused a sharp rise in domestic prices—particularly for food items, which led to a rapid and significant increase in poverty. The massive economic and social impacts of the crisis required a rapid roll-out of large-scale social assistance programmes, collectively termed the Social Safety Net (JPS), to protect households and communities that were most affected and to prevent the further spread of poverty. Such programmes relied on locally validated data from the National Family Planning Coordination Board and were largely pro-poor, although several targeting issues emerged. (…)
    Keywords: Indonesia, Single Registry, Social Protection Programmes
    Date: 2015–07
  4. By: Kaliappa KALIRAJAN (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Australia); Kazi Arif Uz ZAMAN (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Australia); Gaminiratne WIJESEKERE (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Australia)
    Abstract: The ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community Blueprint adopted in 2009 incorporated ‘Ensuring Environmental Sustainability’ as one of its six broader characteristics. A midterm review (MTR) was carried out to evaluate the progress and effectiveness of the implementation activities both at the national level and for ASEAN as a whole. In this context, the objective of this study is to analyse the performance of natural resources management (NRM), which is crucial in ensuring environmental sustainability, of each ASEAN member country based on the MTR. Drawing on the review, an analytical framework is proposed to measure the performance of NRM with appropriate adjustments, relevant modifications, directions for the future, and corresponding way forward, whilst exploring opportunities for member countries and other countries in the Asian region. Some guidelines on time-bound short- and long-run action plans are suggested. A particular attention in this study is paid to developing some standardised concrete indicators or benchmarks that may be used for measuring the NRM activities within a common framework for all ASEAN countries.
    Keywords: : Natural resources management, ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community, Environmental sustainability, bottom-up approach, Sustainable consumption and production
    JEL: O13 Q01 Q28 Q5
    Date: 2015–09
  5. By: Adama Bah (IPC-IG); Suahasil Nazara (IPC-IG); Elan Satriawan (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: Indonesia began to implement targeted social assistance programmes for both households and individuals in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The crisis had halted Indonesias economic growth and caused a sharp rise in domestic prices—particularly for food items, which led to a rapid and significant increase in poverty. The massive economic and social impacts of the crisis required a rapid roll-out of large-scale social assistance programmes, collectively termed the Social Safety Net (JPS), to protect households and communities that were most affected and to prevent the further spread of poverty. Such programmes relied on locally validated data from the National Family Planning Coordination Board and were largely pro-poor, although several targeting issues emerged. (…)
    Keywords: Indonesia, Single Registry, Social Protection Programmes
    Date: 2015–07
  6. By: Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Charoensivakorn, Phadet (Asian Development Bank Institute); Niraula, Baburam (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of most Asian economies. The main obstacle to the development of the SME sector is the lack of stable finance. Considering the bank-dominated characteristic of economies in Asia, banks are the main source of financing, and the lack of a comprehensive credit rating database has been a bottleneck for SMEs. This paper examines how a credit rating scheme for SMEs can be developed, when access to other financial and non-financial ratios is not possible, by using data on lending by banks to SMEs. We employ statistical techniques on five variables from a sample of Thai SMEs and classify them into subgroups based on their financial health. By employing these techniques, banks could reduce information asymmetry and consequently set interest rates and lending ceilings for SMEs. This would ease financing to healthy SMEs and reduce the amount of non-performing loans to this important sector.
    Keywords: credit risk analysis; SMEs; bank lending; Thailand
    JEL: G21 G23 G24 G32
    Date: 2015–09–04
  7. By: Lord, Montague; Artuso, Fabio; Record, Richard; Clarke, Julian
    Abstract: The World Trade Organization’s new Agreement on Trade Facilitation has the potential to significantly reduce East Asia’s trade costs along the entire supply chain, increasing regional gross domestic product (GDP) by 2.7 percent and employment by 1.2 percent. At present, the region’s developing economies suffer from trade costs well above those of the newly industrialized countries and of developed economies, owing to the large number of inefficient border and behind-the-border procedures. Countries have been adding to their stock of nontariff measures, which now account for as much as 90 percent of (non-transportation) trade costs. The ATF defines a new reform agenda for East Asia with potentially far-reaching effects on private sector development, especially for small businesses that need greater transparency and simplification of procedures to enable them to readily access regional and global value chains.
    Keywords: Trade costs, East Asia, global value chains, regional value chains, Agreement on Trade Facilitation, ATF, Nontariff measures, NTMs, trade facilitation,
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2014–04–15
  8. By: Dyah Larasati (IPC-IG); Fiona Howell (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: The Government of Indonesia places a high priority on the universal provision of, and access to, education. Universal education is considered a cornerstone for future economic development and shared prosperity. Over the past decade, the Government of Indonesia has introduced a number of major reforms to make universal education a reality. In 2003, the Ministry of Education and Culture (MoEC) and the Ministry of Religious Affairs (MoRA) began implementing the Nine-Year Compulsory Basic Education Programme (Wajib Belajar Sembilan Tahun) with the aim of encouraging school-age children to complete junior secondary education. In 2005, a school-based education subsidy programme known as School Operational Assistance (Bantuan Operasional Sekolah—BOS) was introduced to provide grants directly to primary and junior secondary schools on a per student basis. The BOS grants were designed to cover direct educational costs but not indirect costs associated with education (i.e. transportation costs, uniforms etc.), which are recognised as being a major barrier to access for lower-income households. (...)
    Keywords: Bantuan Siswa Miskin, BSM, Indonesian, Cash Transfer Programme, Poor Students
    Date: 2014–10
  9. By: McGuinness, Seamus; Kelly, Elish; Pham Thi Thu, Phuong; Ha Thi Thu, Thuy
    Abstract: Using data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey, this paper examines the returns to education in Vietnam in 2002 and 2010, and how these returns changed over time. Given the economic growth that took place during this time period, the relative demand for labour is also assessed in order to identify if skill-biased technical change played a role in explaining the returns to education in Vietnam at a time of exceptional economic growth. The male and female education returns displayed a linear pattern in both 2002 and 2010, with earnings rising with increased levels of education. Relative to males with no qualifications, the returns to those with a vocational training qualification or below fell between 2002 and 2010, while the economic returns to a college education and above increased. Similar results were observed for females. In relation to relative labour demand, the results indicated that the demand for all levels of education (apart from males with a high school qualification) relative to those with no qualifications grew between 2002 and 2010. However, there was particularly strong growth in the demand for those with a vocational training qualification and above, especially an advanced degree qualification. Findings from the paper show that high levels of economic growth in Vietnam between 2002 and 2010 have facilitated increasing returns to education and demand for high skilled labour. In addition, there appears to be shortages for some types of skilled labour.
    Date: 2015–07
  10. By: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
    Abstract: Outlook and risks. As Singapore prepares to celebrate its 50th anniversary in August, its economy continues to perform well. Despite the slow pace of the global recovery and a gradual decline in domestic credit growth and housing prices, projected economic growth of about 2.9 percent in 2015 is consistent with full employment and price stability. Growth is projected to slow down in the medium term, consistent with reduced reliance on foreign workers and rapid population aging. The authorities’ new growth model takes into account Singapore’s physical resource limits and aims to boost labor and land productivity. Risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside: Singapore’s highly open economy is exposed to external shocks, most notably slower global growth and the side effects from volatility in global financial markets. Domestic vulnerabilities, including elevated private indebtedness, can amplify the impact of external shocks. Policies. In January, in response to a decline in expected inflation and a more uncertain outlook for growth, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) reduced the pace of appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) band. The more benign near?to medium-term inflation outlook warrants the relative easing of monetary policy. The monetary policy framework is robust and flexible but rising domestic leverage and heightened global interest rate and exchange rate volatility warrant heightened vigilance in assessing the balance of forces between the various channels of monetary policy. Singapore continues to maintain high regulatory and supervisory standards. Recent macroprudential measures have contributed to smoothing the cycle for credit and house prices. The budget’s focus on boosting productivity, equality of opportunity, and inclusiveness is laudable, while the fiscal impulse is opportune given cyclical conditions. Restructuring and population aging. Building on Singapore’s success and faced with high income inequality and the physical limits of a city state, the authorities have re-engineered the country’s growth model to boost productivity while reducing reliance on foreign workers. The restructuring entails lower steady state growth and a shift in the functional distribution of income toward labor. Incentives provided for firms to increase productivity-enhancing investments and for Singaporeans to upgrade their skills should help ensure a successful transition. But slower potential growth and a lower share of profits in income could affect those investments, and gains in productivity could be realized only slowly. Flexibility in the application of foreign worker policies and continued review of incentives are warranted. The authorities are recalibrating fiscal policies with associated inter?and intra- generational impacts in order to proactively deal with Singapore’s rapid population aging, enhance inclusiveness and reduce inequality, while remaining true to the principles of individual responsibility and sound public finances.
    Keywords: Singapore;Article IV consultation reports;Economic conditions;Economic growth;Monetary policy;Macroprudential Policy;Fiscal policy;Corporate sector;Pension reforms;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;monetary fund, exchange, inflation, economic developments
    Date: 2015–07–22
  11. By: Dwight H. Perkins; John P. Tang
    Date: 2015–05
  12. By: Wagener, Andreas; Zenker, Juliane
    Abstract: From 2009 to 2011, the Thai government implemented an income guarantee program for rice, tapioca and maize farmers. Essentially, this program added a non-negative but stochastic component to the incomes of registered farmers. We evaluate the impact of the program on risk attitudes and investment behavior of small-scale rice farmers in relatively poor North-eastern Thailand. To control for self-selection into the scheme, we use propensity score matching. We find that that participation in the program significantly makes farmers less risk-averse, induces higher investments and boosts incomes. Medium-term effects are stronger than short-term effects.
    Keywords: Income support, farm households, risk attitude, investment, Thailand
    JEL: D13 H25 I38 Q12
    Date: 2015–09
  13. By: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
    Abstract: Singapore: Selected Issues
    Keywords: Singapore;International trade;Exports;Imports;Price elasticity;Demand elasticity;Selected Issues Papers;trade, value, demand, elasticity
    Date: 2015–07–22
  14. By: Fabian Lindner
    Abstract: There is a consensus among the majority of economists that the credit supply is limited by current household saving. If governments or foreigners ran deficits, they would absorb this limited saving so that firms could not borrow any longer and had to reduce their investment. This is the "Loanable Funds'' theory. Ben Bernanke's "Global Saving Glut'' thesis is based on this view. According to Bernanke, the US depended on South East Asian and commodity exporting countries' scarce saving to finance the US real estate boom. Using simple accounting rules, the article shows however that credit is never limited by current saving. Often, the exact opposite it true: people can only save after others have taken on credit and paid incomes. This is also the case with the US and its trade partners and creditors: since non-Americans accept the US-Dollar as a means of payment - which only the US can produce - Americans give credit to themselves to finance their current account deficits. Each Dollar that non-Americans invest in the US has either been earned or borrowed in the US before. By their deficits, the US does not absorb scarce saving but allows other countries to increase their income and saving.
    Keywords: Investment, Finance, Saving, Current Account Imbalances, Credit Supply, Global Saving Glut, Loanable Funds Theory, Financial Crisis
    JEL: B2 B4 E2 E5 F3
    Date: 2015
  15. By: Paul Cashin; Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi
    Abstract: This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through thirdmarkets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions crosssectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Niño shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Niño occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño weather episodes.
    Date: 2015–04–30
  16. By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
    Abstract: The main findings and recommendations here are based on selected Basel Core Principles. Given Samoa’s small and simple banking sector, the assessment has identified BCPs for which further development of procedures and practices would be constructive and a priority. As such, the focus is on supervisory powers, resourcing levels, and the need for greater guidance from the supervisor to the industry on risk and its management. Little progress has been achieved towards implementing the recommendations of the 2007 BCP assessment. Initiatives by the Central Bank of Samoa (CBS) to deal with weaknesses identified in supervision and regulation of domestic banks in 2007 were disrupted by a series of natural disasters and the use of limited supervisory resources on other priorities. That said, progress was achieved in issues related to Anti-Money Laundering and Combating Financing of Terrorism (AML-CFT), with Samoa upgraded to a “normal reporting†regime by the Asia Pacific Group on Money Laundering (“APGMLâ€) in 2014, from its previous status of “enhanced reporting.†Recommendations regarding the international banking sector, regulated and supervised by Samoa International Financial Authority (SIFA), still remain to be implemented. Over time, supervision and regulation of all financial intermediaries, including offshore banks, should be unified under the CBS.
    Keywords: Samoa;banks, bank, banking, capital, credit
    Date: 2015–08–07
  17. By: Adama Bah (IPC-IG); Suahasil Nazara (IPC-IG); Elan Satriawan (IPC-IG)
    Keywords: Registro Único, Indonesia, programas de protección social
    Date: 2015–07
  18. By: Thibault Fally; Russell Hillberry
    Abstract: International supply chains require coordination of numerous activities across multiple countries and firms. We develop a theoretical model of supply chains in which the measure of tasks completed within a firm is determined by parameters that define transaction costs and the cost of coordinating more activities within the firm. The structural parameters that govern these costs explain variation in supply chain length as well as cross-country variation in gross-output-to-value-added ratios. The structural parameters are linked to comparative advantage along and across supply chains. We provide an analytical treatment of trade and welfare responses to trade cost change in a simple two-country model. To explore the model's implications in a richer setting we calibrate the model to match key observables in East Asia, and evaluate implications of changes in model parameters for trade, welfare, the length of supply chains and countries' relative position within them.
    JEL: F10 L23
    Date: 2015–09
  19. By: Malhotra, Deepika
    Abstract: With the tremendous and broadly scattered populace of India it has dependably been a test for organizations to control market progress and they need to strive to make their vicinity felt all through the length and expansiveness of the country. Gone are the days when an insignificant promotion on radio or an imaginative publicizing battle was sufficient to hypnotize the objective client. The Information correspondence innovation insurgency had made it basic for organizations to go for interactive media advancement crusades in western nations as well as in India. The developing web entrance, the high offers of advanced mobile phones and the 3G administrations being generally made accessible by cell telephone organizations in India together make impeccable conditions for a computerized upset to occur. On the off chance that we take a gander at the bigger picture the organizations whether private or open are all occupied with prominent promoting projects utilizing either single media or mixed media battles. What's more, this is going on the grounds that if in today's age an organization or brand "is out of site it goes out of psyche", consequently promoting has turned into a fundamental malice. The advertising arrangement essentially means to make the business furnish the arrangement with the mindfulness with the normal clients. From 1980 onwards, on the other hand, the Indian state has moved Indian political economy towards East Asian models of improvement.
    Keywords: Social media marketing, Indian online markets, online marketing, social marketing, viral marketing, Linkedin marketing, Facebook marketing, YouTube as marketing tool.
    JEL: M3 M31 M37 O3 O33
    Date: 2015–08–19
  20. By: Salim M. Darbar; Xiaoyong Wu
    Abstract: This paper presents case studies of macroprudential policy in five jurisdictions (Hong Kong SAR, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, and Sweden). The case studies describe the institutional framework, its evolution, the use of macroprudential tools, and the circumstances under which the tools have been used. The paper shows how macroprudential policy is conducted under a heterogeneous set of institutional frameworks. In all cases macroprudential tools have been used to address risks in the housing market. In addition, some of them have moved to enhance the resilience of their banks to more general cyclical and structural risks.
    Keywords: Central banks and their policies;Cross country analysis;Credit;Hong Kong SAR;Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China;Macroprudential Policy;New Zealand;Netherlands;Singapore;Sweden;macroprudential, instruments, tools, mortgage, central bank, property, markets, debt, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Government Policy and Regulation,
    Date: 2015–06–19
  21. By: Dyah Larasati (IPC-IG); Fiona Howell (IPC-IG)
    Keywords: Bantuan Siswa Miskin, BSM, Indonesian, Cash Transfer Programme, Poor Students
    Date: 2014–12
  22. By: Minwook KANG (Division of Economics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 14 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637332)
    Abstract: This paper presents a constructive example of the Balasko-type (1978, 2014) two-agent transfer problem, based on Shapley and Shubik (1977)'s example of a smooth trading economy with three competitive equilibria.
    Keywords: Transfer problem; multiple equilibria; unstable equilibrium
    JEL: D5 F1 F4 O1
    Date: 2015–08

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