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on South East Asia |
| By: | Kawai, Masahiro (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Following the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis, financial authorities in ASEAN+3 embarked on several new initiatives for East Asia's financial cooperation, including: (i) regional economic surveillance led by the Economic Review and Policy Dialogue (ERPD); (ii) a regional liquidity support facility, called the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI); and (iii) local-currency bond market development. The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 demonstrated the need to further strengthen East Asian financial cooperation. This paper summarizes and evaluates the progress of regional financial cooperation, particularly the ERPD, the CMI and its subsequent multilateralization (CMIM), and the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). It identifies the challenges in strengthening the CMIM, ERPD, and AMRO and suggests that the CMIM and AMRO be transformed into an Asian monetary fund (AMF). The paper argues that for an AMF to emerge, ASEAN+3 authorities need to: (i) contribute part of their foreign exchange reserves to the fund; (ii) establish a secretariat in charge of all aspects of the CMIM, including its activation; and (iii) delink the CMIM from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs by upgrading their capacity to conduct regional surveillance, formulate independent conditionality associated with crisis lending, and monitor policy and economic performance. In the transition period, eligible member countries should be allowed to have more flexible access to the CMIM facility. The CMIM and AMRO should work with the IMF to promote East Asian financial stability, but at the same time the IMF needs to undertake significant operational and governance reforms so that it regains the trust of emerging economy members in the region. |
| Keywords: | chiang mai initiative; asian monetary fund; bond market development; crisis lending; multilateralization |
| JEL: | F33 F36 |
| Date: | 2015–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0527&r=sea |
| By: | Morad, Shahidah Nailul; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper intends to compare the returns of shariah-compliant (Islamic) REITs with non-shariah compliant REITs listed on the London Stock Exchange, Singapore Stock Exchange and Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (Malaysia) against the movement of US inflation and interest rates. A Markov regime switching auto regressive model is applied to capture the unobserved component present in the market during the sample period. The results tend to provide empirical evidence that while there exist different regimes in all three markets, the regimes for shariah compliant REITs on LSE is not well defined. Meanwhile the returns of shariah-compliant REITs are lower compared to non-shariah compliant REITs with US interest rates being significant in all three markets but US inflation rates significantly affecting only the LSE and SGX REITs. |
| Keywords: | Shariah (Islamic) REIT Index, diversification, Markov regime switching |
| JEL: | C22 C58 G11 |
| Date: | 2015–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:65237&r=sea |
| By: | Roda Jean-Marc |
| Abstract: | Promoting tropical forest sustainability among corporate players is a major challenge. Many tools have been developed, but without much success. Southeast Asia has become a laboratory of globalization processes, where the development and success of agribusiness transnationals raises questions about their commitment to environmental concerns. An abundance of literature discusses what determines the behavior of Asian corporations, with a particular emphasis on cultural factors. Our hypothesis is that financial factors, such as ownership structure, may also have a fundamental role. We analyzed the audited accounts of four major Asian agribusiness transnationals. Using network analysis, we deciphered how the 931 companies relate to each other and determine the behavior of the transnationals to which they belong. We compared various metrics with the environmental commitment of these transnationals. We found that ownership structures reflect differences in flexibility, control and transaction costs, but not in ethnicities. Capital and its control, ownership structure, and flexibility explain 97% of the environmental behavior. It means that existing market-based tools to promote environmental sustainability do not engage transnationals at the scale where most of their behavior is determined. For the first time, the inner mechanisms of corporate governance are unraveled in agricultural and forest sustainability. New implications such as the convergence of environmental sustainability with family business sustainability emerged. |
| Keywords: | Southeast Asia, oil palm, forest, transnationals, investment strategy, emerging markets, competitiveness, network analysis, network metrics, ethnic business, ownership structure, family business. agribusiness |
| JEL: | D85 F02 F23 G32 L14 L73 Q01 Q13 Q23 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epf:wpaper:40412&r=sea |
| By: | Jungsoo Park, Lawrence Lau |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how the patterns of productivity growth have changed over the past few decades for the Asian economies in comparison with the advanced economies. The findings indicate that the Asian economies are in the process of transition in terms of pattern of growth. It seems that the 4 NIEs have already transitioned from input-based growth to productivity-based growth, and the remaining Asian economies are starting to show signs of transition in the past decade. Scrutinizing the recent trends in human capital, R&D, patent statistics, and inward FDIs, they all indicate that the productivity growth will be stronger in the Asian region than before and will constitute the major basis for growth. |
| Keywords: | total factor productivity, Asian economies, economic growth |
| JEL: | O47 O57 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:24840&r=sea |
| By: | Naruemon Choochinprakarn (Burapha University) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to examine the current stage of e-commerce usage by Thai small and medium travel enterprises (SMEs) and investigate the effect of technological, organizational, and environmental (TOE) factors on three stages of e-commerce (EC) adoption. An online survey was employed to collect data from Thai travel SMEs that have company websites, are registered with the Thai Department of Business Development and are a member of the Tourism Authority of Thailand. Data from 114 usable cases was analyzed using multiple regression. Results revealed that the use of EC in Thai travel SMEs was in the second stage of EC adoption. This indicates that the majority use the Internet for provision of information and services. Other key findings are: (1) only competition intensity positively affected the first (promotion) stage of EC adoption, (2) relative advantage was found to be the only determinant of EC adoption in the second stage of the provision of information and services, and (3) only organization readiness was found to influence EC adoption in the third (processing) stage. This study can provide Thai travel SMEs with useful findings to further understand EC adoption and help to develop a better strategic vision in adopting advanced EC technologies to gain potential benefits and competitive advantages. In addition, the findings have implications for government agencies and EC consultants and vendors in providing guidance on practical applications of EC adoption in Thai travel SMEs and in supporting the development of EC systems. The findings of this study offer a theoretical extension to e-commerce adoption research by highlighting the role of TOE factors on e-commerce adoption by Thai travel SMEs. |
| Keywords: | E-Commerce Adoption, TOE framework, Travel and tourism industry, SMEs, Thailand |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:ibmpro:2303915&r=sea |
| By: | Jean-Marc Roda (CESSMA - Centre d'Etudes en Sciences Sociales sur les Mondes Africains, Américains et Asiatiques - UP7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IRD (FRANCE), UR Valorisation des bois tropicaux - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, INTROP - Institute of Tropical Forestry & Forest Products - University of Putra Malaysia, FRIM - Forest Research Institute of Malaysia - FRIM, CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement); Norfaryanti Kamaruddin (INTROP - Institute of Tropical Forestry & Forest Products - University of Putra Malaysia); Rafael Palhiarim Tobias (UR Valorisation des bois tropicaux - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement) |
| Abstract: | Promoting tropical forest sustainability among corporate players is a major challenge. Many tools have been developed, but without much success. Southeast Asia has become a laboratory of globalization processes, where the development and success of agribusiness transnationals raises questions about their commitment to environmental concerns. An abundance of literature discusses what determines the behavior of Asian corporations, with a particular emphasis on cultural factors. Our hypothesis is that financial factors, such as ownership structure, may also have a fundamental role. We analyzed the audited accounts of four major Asian agribusiness transnationals. Using network analysis, we deciphered how the 931 companies relate to each other and determine the behavior of the transnationals to which they belong. We compared various metrics with the environmental commitment of these transnationals. We found that ownership structures reflect differences in flexibility, control and transaction costs, but not in ethnicities. Capital and its control, ownership structure, and flexibility explain 97% of the environmental behavior. It means that existing market-based tools to promote environmental sustainability do not engage transnationals at the scale where most of their behavior is determined. For OPEN ACCESS Forests 2015, 6 1455 the first time, the inner mechanisms of corporate governance are unraveled in agricultural and forest sustainability. New implications such as the convergence of environmental sustainability with family business sustainability emerged. |
| Date: | 2015–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:cirad-01164222&r=sea |
| By: | Rahim, Yasmin Abd; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This research is motivated by the desire to see the difference on interest rate risk exposure between Islamic and conventional equity across different investment horizons using wavelet analysis. Seven types of interest rates were tested with FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index using data ranging from 1st March 2007 till 31st December 2014. The exposure to interest rate risk for both indices was highest at longer term investment horizon which is between 256 to 512 days; followed by investment horizon between 64-128 days. However, short term investment horizon which is between 2-4 days and 4-8 days has the lowest exposure to interest rate risk. High correlations between indexes across investment horizons had been demonstrated empirically. Hence, the hypothesis that an application of Islamic ethical screen would ‘save’ Islamic finance from interest rate risk is not accepted. |
| Keywords: | Islamic stock index, interest rate, wavelet |
| JEL: | C22 C58 G11 |
| Date: | 2015–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:65259&r=sea |
| By: | Hashim, Khairul Khairiah; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This study discusses the relationship between stock price index and exchange rate in Malaysia. Establishing the relationship between stock prices and exchange rate is important for several reasons. Firstly, it may affect the economic decisions in terms of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Secondly, by understanding the relationship of stock prices and exchange rate, it will assist to predict the possibility of financial downturn. This study makes an attempt to examine the positive or negative relationship between stock prices and exchange rate. The causality between stock price and exchange rate is important in order to assist in making economic decision. This study employs MGARCH-DCC and wavelet approach, more specifically the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT). The earlier studies used time-domain framework in their search for a relationship when the true relations might exist at different frequencies. The findings show that there is negative relationship between stock prices index and exchange rate in the case of Malaysia for both Islamic and conventional stock indices. The stock price index leads exchange rate in the long term investment horizon. This empirical research may have several implications for traders, portfolio managers and policymakers. It can be helpful for the traders in explaining the flow of information between stock and foreign exchange markets. |
| Keywords: | Stock volatility, exchange rates, MGARCH-DCC, Wavelets |
| JEL: | C22 C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2015–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:65234&r=sea |
| By: | Kamarudin, Eka Azrin; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Crude oil market plays an important role in economic development and its price changes give huge impact to the financial markets. In this paper, the relationships between crude oil and stock markets are examined. This study has selected Malaysian Islamic and conventional stock markets as a case study. Financialisation of crude oil and its frequent inclusion into investment portfolios warrant an analysis of the relationship between crude oil and stock market indices at various time scales or investment horizons. Therefore, this paper applies wavelet decompositions to unveil the multi-horizon nature of co-movement and employ daily closing price data of Brent crude oil index and Malaysian Shariah and conventional stock market indices. The results mainly show an evidence of a low degree of co-movement between crude oil prices and Malaysian stock market returns for short term and medium term. However, for the long term, it shows that there is a significant co-movement for crude oil – stock market relationship. Interestingly, Malaysia Islamic stock market and conventional stock market are highly correlated and both show similar patterns for crude oil price comovements. The findings of this study are of crucial importance for the investors for exploring their diversification benefits as well as for the timing of their investment and disinvestment purposes. |
| Keywords: | Islamic stock markets, crude oil, wavelets |
| JEL: | C22 C58 Q43 |
| Date: | 2015–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:65261&r=sea |
| By: | John Jerrim (Department of Quantitative Social Science, Institute of Education, University College London); Anna Vignoles (Faculty of Education, University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | A small group of high-performing East Asian economies dominate the top of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) rankings. Although there are many possible explanations for this, East Asian teaching methods and curriculum design are two factors to have particularly caught policymakers' attention. Yet there is currently little evidence as to whether any particular East Asian teaching method actually represents an improvement over the status quo in England, and whether such methods can be successfully introduced into Western education systems. This paper provides new evidence on this issue by presenting results from two clustered Randomised Controlled Trials (RCT's), where a Singaporean inspired 'mastery' approach to teaching mathematics was introduced into a selection of England's primary and secondary schools. We find evidence of a modest but positive treatment effect. Moreover, even under conservative assumptions, the programme has the potential to offer substantial economic returns. |
| Keywords: | Maths Mastery; Randomised Controlled Trial; Singapore; PISA. |
| JEL: | I2 |
| Date: | 2015–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:1505&r=sea |
| By: | Punnee Pimapunsri (Faculty of Management and Tourism, Burapha University) |
| Abstract: | With a sample of 1,007employees from thirteen companies in 3 provinces of Thailand, the relationships between employee engagement and employees’ satisfaction with supervision were examined. Purposive sampling was used to select only companies implementing employee engagement program to participate in this study. Gallups Q 12 questionnaire and a sub scale of Hackman and Oldman Job Diagnostic Survey were used as survey instruments. The results show high level of employee engagement in four engagement dimensions namely give, get, grow, and belong. The study also shows that correlations between employee satisfaction with supervision and the four engagement dimensions are also at high levels. This demonstrates the satisfaction of employees on the supervisor’s practices on the companies’ engagement programs. High relationships among the three dimensions of engagement as give and belong, grow and belong, and grow and give were revealed. |
| Keywords: | Employee engagement, Employee satisfaction, Retention |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:ibmpro:2304084&r=sea |
| By: | Othman, Arshad Nuval; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | The paper makes the initial attempt to understand the impact of investment or profit and loss sharing (PLS) deposits on mudarabah and musharakah or PLS financing offered by Islamic banks. The appropriate techniques such as DOLS, FMOLS and System GMM are used for the estimations and causality analysis. As a case study, the paper applies the techniques on panel data from Malaysia for two cross-sections, Islamic banks and Islamic banking schemes, with monthly frequency from January 2010 to January 2015. The results accept the null hypothesis of total investment deposits do not affect mudarabah and musharakah financing offered by Islamic banks. The results tend to indicate the presence of the positive long-run and short-run relationships between total investment deposits and mudarabah and musharakah financing but no causality from the former to the latter. Firstly, the positive long-run and short-run relationships may arise from the long-run and short-run influence of variables other than the microeconomic and macroeconomic variables specified by the empirical investigation. Secondly, the mudarabah and musharakah financing offered by Islamic banks appear driven by financing recipients’ preferences on the type of financing contract and not by total investment deposits, assuming the availability of supply of investment or PLS deposits more than or equal to the demand for mudarabah and musharakah or PLS financing. Thus, policymakers’ strategy on whether or not to promote PLS deposits to fund suppliers or PLS financing to fund demanders depends on the supply of the former and the demand for the latter. |
| Keywords: | profit and loss sharing deposits and financing, DOLS,FMOLS,system GMM |
| JEL: | C22 C58 G21 |
| Date: | 2015–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:65224&r=sea |
| By: | Tom Fong (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Ceara Hui (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Alfred Wong (Hong Kong Monetary Authority) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the potential impact of US monetary normalisation on sovereign bond yields in Asia Pacific. We apply the quantile vector autoregressive model with principal component analysis to the assessment of tail risk of sovereign debt, which may not be detectable using traditional OLS-based analysis. Our empirical evidence suggests that US Treasury bond yields can have a significant impact on sovereign bond yields in the region, an important channel through which monetary normalisation by the Fed can affect Asia-Pacific economies. Increases in sovereign bond yields will not only compromise the ability of the sovereigns in the region to service their debt but also translate into higher costs of borrowing for the rest of the economy. The results show how much the outsized impact could potentially be if US monetary normalisation somehow turns out to be much more disorderly than expected. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Credit Risk, Tail Risk, Value-at-Risk, Quantile Regression, Vector Autoregression, Impulse Response Function, Principal Components |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hkm:wpaper:132015&r=sea |
| By: | NONGNUCH BOONKLUM (Naresuan University) |
| Abstract: | The High-Speed Rail (the “HSR”) Project is a development scheme initiated by the Thai government where the main purpose is to respond to and to accommodate the expansion of the city, the population growth, the domestic and international economics, and to reduce transportation costs. This research aims to analyze and evaluate the likelihood of the economic impact from developing a high speed intercity railway, using “Phitsanulok Province”, which is a mid-sized city, as a case study.The objective of this study is to analyze the surrounding conditions and potentials and to render the SWOT Analysis and impacts of being an HSR station, and to provide recommendation in relation to business opportunities, adjustment and development to business entrepreneurs in Phitsanulok Province.The methodology of this research framework in this project uses a combined method, namely, 1) documentary study, deriving from the compilation of primary information from researches of other countries which have HSR, 2) the survey research of the desire for HSR, and 3) an in-depth interview.The results received from this study found the following:1. This study aims to analyze and consider the pros and cons of implementing an HSR in the province and to look into the likely economic and financial consequences of such a development. The SWOT Analysis (Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities and Threats)2.The impact and potential effects which may occur to the business entrepreneurs can be divided into four groups:a) Those that may benefit,b) Those that may face some risks, c) Those that may need to adjust their core businessd) New Businesses in relation to various services |
| Keywords: | High-Speed Rail, SWOT, Business Entrepreneur, Impact |
| JEL: | R11 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:ibmpro:2303661&r=sea |
| By: | Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Helble, Matthias (Asian Development Bank Institute); Aizawa, Toshiaki (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this paper is to give an overview of the most commonly used housing policies and to illustrate their economic impact. To facilitate the analysis, we first introduce a simple two-period housing demand model for owner-occupied houses and rental houses. We then add a standard stock-flow housing supply model. Using this modelling framework, we explain the qualitative effects of various housing policies on supply and demand. In the last section of the paper, we provide a quantitative estimation of the impact of each policy and assess its effectiveness using a simple analysis of cost effectiveness. We hope that the model’s versatility makes it a simple tool for policymakers to better understand the economic consequences of various housing policies. |
| Keywords: | view-source:http://www.adb.org/publications/housing-policies-asia-theoretical-analysis-use-demand-and-supply-model |
| JEL: | R21 R28 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2015–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0526&r=sea |
| By: | Richard P.C. Brown (School of Economics, The University of Queensland); Gareth Leeves (Monash University, Malaysia); Nichola Kitson (School of Economics, The University of Queensland); Richard Prabha Prayaga (School of Economics, The University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how households from migrant communities in Australia deal with conflicting claims on their resources for charitable giving in various forms, using household survey data. We examine financial donations, volunteering and remittances among the competing claims on migrants' resources and the effect of secular consumption on giving. We control for the wide range of religious denominations and the metropolitan and regional locations represented in our sample. We find increases in income lead to more financial donations and remittances. Contemporaneous increases in secular spending appear to be associated with reductions in giving except in the case of remittances. It is suggested that the investment and altruism motives associated with remittances could make it rather more resilient to competing pressures. Overseas donations are more susceptible to secular expenditure than donations in the host country; the latter may be more susceptible to community pressures. Indeed, we find evidence of members of home country community groups in the host country giving more to all claimants. These households may face particular conflicts in meeting all claims on their resources as prior evidence has suggested. Time donations to social organizations are particularly susceptible to discretionary spending, which could impact on integration into the wider community. |
| Keywords: | migrants, charitable giving, volunteering, remittances, religion, sharing norms |
| JEL: | F24 D64 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2015–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:547&r=sea |
| By: | Kim, Seonghoon (Singapore Management University); Fleisher, Belton M. (Ohio State University); Sun, Jessica Ya (Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | We report evidence of long-term adverse health impacts of in utero exposure to malnutrition based on survivors in their 50s who were born during the China Famine that occurred in the years 1959-1961. We take advantage of recently available data provided by the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to corroborate evidence supporting the Fetal Origin Hypothesis. We find that fetal exposure to malnutrition has large and long-lasting impacts on both physical health and cognitive abilities, including the risks of suffering a stroke, physical disabilities in speech, walking and vision, and measures of mental acuity. Our findings on the health impacts of fetal malnutrition on middle-age survivors suggest that it would be desirable to trace the changes of health status of the famine survivors as they age into later life stages. We suspect that such further study would support the lifetime benefits of in utero and early infancy health interventions that extend through the life cycle in the form of avoiding both physical and mental impairment. |
| Keywords: | fetal origin hypothesis, malnutrition, health, China Famine |
| JEL: | I10 I12 J14 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9093&r=sea |