nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2015‒06‒20
fourteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  3. South East Asian Financial Linkages and the Changing Role of China: Insights from a Global VAR By Rudkin, Simon; Wong, Sen Min
  5. Monitoring the Implementation of Services Trade Reform towards an ASEAN Economic Community By Philippa DEE
  6. Preparedness of SMEs towards AEC : A Case Study of Travel Agents in Bangkok By Akhilesh Trivedi
  7. Preparedness of Thai Entrepreneurs for ASEAN Economic Community (AEC): A Case Study of Small and Medium Restaurant Businesses By Assistant Professor isaree karnreungsiri; Nattaya Praditsuwan
  8. A Review of the Accreditation System for Philippine Higher Education Institutions By Conchada, Mitzie Irene P.; Tiongco, Marites M.
  9. Green Economy Implications on National Energy Governance: The case of Laos and Cambodia. PhD Research proposal By Faith Euphrasia Mavengere
  10. Toward a new definition of shared prosperity: a dynamic perspective from three countries By Dang,Hai-Anh H.; Lanjouw,Peter F.
  11. The Impact of Cross-border E-commerce on International Trade By Ayoub yousefi
  12. Re-evaluating the economic costs of conflicts By Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana; Baskaran, Thushyanthan
  13. Towards an ethnographic understanding of the European Marriage Pattern: Global correlates and links with female status By Sarah Carmichael; Jan Luiten van Zanden
  14. Intergenerational Games with Dynamic Externalities and Climate Change Experiments By Ekaterina Sherstyuk; Nori Tarui; Majah-Leah Ravago; Tatsuyoshi Saijo

  1. By: Evan Lau (Universiti Malaysia Sarawak); Alvina Syn-Yee Lee (Universiti Malaysia Sarawak); Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah (Universiti Putra Malaysia)
    Abstract: This study aims to examine the contribution of external debt to economic growth in three countries namely; Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. To discern the causal chain linkages among the I(1) macroeconomic variables typically utilized to test the connection between external debt and economic growth, several econometric procedures are employed in this study. By employing the cointegration test, the results reveal the existence of one unique long-run relationship among the variables for Malaysia while two cointegrating vectors are identified for both Thailand and the Philippines. From the results, it is evident that both the growth-driven exports and export-led growth hypothesis exist in Malaysia and Thailand respectively. The dynamic econometric analysis finds that exports of goods and services appear to be the most leading variable beyond the sample for the next 50 years. The findings from the study recommend the policy makers should formulate effective debt management policies to monitor the amount of external borrowings so that the accumulation of external debt will not hinder the economic growth.
    Keywords: External Debt; Economic Growth; Malaysia; Thailand; Philippines.
    JEL: F34 F43 H63
  2. By: Natalia Victorovna Kuznetsova, Natalia Alexandrovna Vorobeva (School of Economics and Management, Far Eastern Federal University, Russia)
    Abstract: The paper examines the problem of global integration processes in regions of Africa, Asia and Russia. Based on migration flows, estimation of integration indexes, we investigate the historical integration development of these regions and identify the important features for future international cooperation and integration. This article presents the preliminary results of the gravity model that we constructed using the features of Asia-Pacific region. We concluded that differences and similarities in sectoral structure of GDP do not influence increasing of mutual trade between countries and its partners. It evaluates the potential benefits for Asia-Pacific region by expanding the market for export industries worldwide.
    Keywords: global integration process, gravity model, ASEAN, Asia-Pacific Region, economy of North-East Asia, integration process of South Africa
    JEL: R11
    Date: 2015–03
  3. By: Rudkin, Simon; Wong, Sen Min
    Abstract: As major financial crises, and the rise of China have shaped the new world order, so it is inevitable that those nations, especially in South East Asia, that once looked west for stability need to reappraise their situation. With the markets so intertwined in events, studying the propagation of equity price shocks within the wider set of macroeconomic variables allows us to say more about how relations are changing, and the likely impacts of any future crash. With data reaching into 2014, this paper is better able to reflect the post global financial crisis period. Using a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model we analyse these changes and what lies in store for South East Asia, and the ASEAN 4 in particular. Isolating three distinct trade patterns in our weight matrices responses to crises are clearly identifiable, and the opening up of China readily chartable. Indirect effects of China’s rise are highlighted; impacts on the ASEAN 4 being via other nations to date, but direct impact is appearing.
    Keywords: Financial Linkages, Global VAR, Equity Prices
    JEL: C51 F15 F36
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Ridzwan Che Rus (Sultan Idris Education University)
    Abstract: Under Tenth Malaysia Plan from 2010-2015, Malaysia Government hopes that vocational education to be a mainstream vocational education and transform Malaysia to higher income economic country. The understanding of the formation process of skilled workers should be studied. In Technical and Vocation Education and Training (TVET), most studies using quantitative methods rather than qualitative methods. Hence, most studies only look at the surface and evaluation a training program conducted without in- depth look why and how it happened that way. Grounded theory is one of the qualitative research methods are often used. However, in this study, the researchers focused on the formation of the proposed model system of comprehensive modern apprenticeship. We used this method in effort to form a model of apprenticeship training in Malaysia. We will try to discuss issues and challenges facing by TVET researcher in term of using Grounded Theory. We provide guidance to new researchers who intend to use this method in their study. The use of grounded theory method will allow researchers to grasp the main concern and how respondent resolve it.
    Keywords: grounded theory, qualitative, apprenticeship, vocational, TVET
    JEL: I20
  5. By: Philippa DEE (The Australian National University)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the extent to which the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) is helping ASEAN member states achieve their ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) goal of free flow of services in the region. Even after eight rounds of services trade negotiations, the trade commitments lag actual practice. Thus, if the AFAS process is to do a better job of driving real reform, it will need to be more closely linked to the domestic policy development processes in each member country. One strategy would be to switch from a positive list approach to a negative list approach to negotiations. This could be the ‘game changer’; it would require a major policy review, and thereby allow countries to develop an overall services trade strategy anchored within the domestic policy development process. Other desirable changes would be a ratchet mechanism, whereby any future domestic reforms would be automatically bound into AFAS schedules, and a mechanism to ensure that whenever mode 3 commitments are made, the appropriate mode 4 commitments are also made. Supporting changes are also needed to domestic regulatory environments. For example, some ASEAN members need to improve the quality and enforcement of their prudential regulation if they are to make further progress in opening up their financial markets to foreign participation. Finally, it is critical to have regulatory frameworks that are conducive to contestability more generally, so that when foreign companies do enter the market, they do not have an unnatural AFAS-induced advantage over domestic new entrants. Thus, the key to making further real progress towards a free flow of services in the region is to focus on domestic regulatory improvement more generally.
    Keywords: ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services, AFAS, services trade policy, services trade commitments, regulatory policy, regulatory environment, actual practice
    JEL: F13 F15
    Date: 2015–05
  6. By: Akhilesh Trivedi (Faculty of Hospitality Industry, Dusit Thani College)
    Abstract: This paper is a survey research conducted with the main purpose of developing preparedness guidelines toward the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in travel agent businesses of Bangkok, Thailand.The primary data was collected from a sample of 30 travel agents, whom were selected by convenience sampling. In-depth interview and a structured questionnaire were used as the tools in collecting data. A qualitative approach, as well as descriptive statistics such as frequency and percentage, was adopted when analyzing the data,.The content of the research covered business function (management and human resources, finance, marketing, and production) of travel agents in Bangkok. Besides, the perception and preparedness of travel agents towards AEC were also studied.The research results showed that most of the respondents had relative high perception towards the AEC that will be implemented toward the end of 2015. They realized that there are both positive and negative impacts of the AEC and, thus, have adopted several strategies in order to cope with the AEC. These strategies were to conduct research on demand of customers, to recruit highly qualified employees who have the ability of speaking multiple languages, to adjust the payment or welfare systems, to develop training programs concentrating on industry standards and language training, to develop new tourist programs, and to revise tour fees regularly.
    Keywords: SMEs, AEC, Travel Agent
    JEL: A12
  7. By: Assistant Professor isaree karnreungsiri (Srinakharinwirot University); Nattaya Praditsuwan (Srinakharinwirot University)
    Abstract: The research on “Preparedness of Thai entrepreneurs for ASEAN Economic Community (AEC): A Case Study of Small and Medium Restaurant Businesses” was aimed at surveying demographic data and business operations of Thai entrepreneurs, who were in small and medium restaurant businesses. The survey also included their perception as well as their preparedness toward AEC. The convenience sampling and self-administered questionnaire were used in collecting and gathering data from 200 entrepreneurs who operated small and medium restaurants in Bangkok, Thailand. Descriptive statistic, including percentage, mean, and standard deviations were utilized when analyzing the data. Hypothesis tests were conducted by using statistical techniques T-Test and F-test. The research results revealed that more than 70 percent of the respondents perceived some information about AEC. For examples, the number of AEC member countries; the objectives of AEC establishment; advantages of AEC towards trading, services, capital, and labor mobilization; impacts of AEC toward restaurant businesses; opportunities for development due to an increase in number of tourists; and a higher competition due to free trades and investment in the businesses. Approximately, 55 to 69 percent of the respondents perceived the information of opportunities to be supported for new sources of capital and business innovation, and for higher opportunities of labor mobilization. Less than 50 percent of the respondents perceived the information of establishment of government supervisory center for restaurant businesses and new regulations for restaurant businesses.On the final part of the survey, most of the respondents rated overall activities towards AEC at the moderate degree of preparedness. In regard to the details, it was found that the respondents rated only one activity at high degree of preparedness. The activity was a renovation of restaurants for cleanliness and international modernist style. Besides, they rated many activities at moderate degree of preparedness. Those activities were an improvement on knowledge about AEC; adjustments for a wide variety and international dishes; design an attractive food menu with multiple languages; changes in food and dressing containers for modernization and beauty; developments on new channels of distribution; developments of training programs for staff; developments of promotion strategies; and adjustments of surroundings, landscapes and facilities.Lastly, the activities that the respondents rated at low degree of preparedness were the planning of conduct research on demand of customers, the necessary of quoting food price in inter currency, and an expansion of new branches or offices in tourist areas.
    Keywords: Thai Entrepreneurs, AEC, Restaurant businesses
    JEL: A12
  8. By: Conchada, Mitzie Irene P.; Tiongco, Marites M.
    Abstract: For any developing country, improving the quality of higher education institutions is of paramount interest to government agencies especially the Commission on Higher Education. Several reforms have taken place and that one of the initiatives being done is rationalizing the structure of public higher education and improving the budget to ensure resource mobilization and cost efficiency. Despite these efforts, there are several issues that need to be addressed and one is the voluntary nature of the accreditation system. Another related issue is the number of multiple agencies catering to the accreditation of the various higher education institutions. This paper reviews the existing accreditation processes and roles of accrediting bodies to present a clearer perspective on the current situation of higher education institutions. Similar to other countries in the region, the accreditation process in the country is initiated by the private sector and is also voluntary, which adheres to the nature of the academe. Though it is a way of fostering academic freedom and motivating some institutions to compete, this could result in complacency in others. Policy implications include reshaping the institution in terms of keeping an accreditation mechanism built into the system, such as a quality assurance framework.
    Keywords: Philippines, accreditation system, higher education institutions, quality assurance
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Faith Euphrasia Mavengere (University of Jyväskylä)
    Abstract: The concept of a green economy, which was developed in the field of environmental economics, has in the past two years entered mainstream policy discourse and been broadened from the industrialized countries to envelop the developing and also the least developed countries. Green economy is perceived as a concept replacing sustainable development as the new driving force of environmental action. However, different green economy approaches have been discussed and researched mainly in the context of industrialized countries. Thus, there is a clear need to bridge this gap by founding research on the green economy’s implications in developing countries hence the purpose of this PhD research is to analyze green growth in relation to energy governance in Cambodia and Laos. The following key research questions are raised: What are the governance processes that influence whether the efforts will be guided towards large-scale solutions, such as large scale hydropower or towards finding locally appropriate solutions for green economy transformations? What are the challenges and possibilities for transforming the energy sectors to be more inclusive? Qualitative research methods will be used to collect data in this research. Research materials and methods which will be used in this research include policy analysis assessing policy documents, development plans and strategies such as the green growth road map of Cambodia and the national renewable energy strategies for Cambodia and Laos. Additionally, in line with the scope of this research, thematic interviews will therefore be carried out with planners in different ministries and provincial authorities as well as among civil society actors to provide relevant information, opinions and thoughts on the topic. The findings of this research will add to the existing body of knowledge with insights for bridging society-science-policy gaps in energy governance planning and decision-making processes in Laos and Cambodia and other least developed countries where local capacity and resources are limited.
    Keywords: green economy, energy
  10. By: Dang,Hai-Anh H.; Lanjouw,Peter F.
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new measure of growth in shared prosperity, based on shifts in population shares of different income groups over time. This measure complements the definition of shared prosperity recently proposed by the World Bank in which income growth of the bottom 40 percent is examined. The new measure?s strengths arise from its close ties to countries? national poverty lines and poverty measures, its focus on inclusion of the vulnerable population, and its identification of a population segment that is neither poor nor at significant risk of falling into poverty. The paper also offers a typology of scenarios for tracking shared prosperity under this measure. It provides illustrative examples using survey data from India, the United States, and Vietnam for the mid-to-late 2000s. Estimation results comparing the two approaches with measuring the evolution of shared prosperity are qualitatively consistent, and suggest that during this period, Vietnam enjoyed the greatest expansion in shared prosperity, followed by India and then the United States.
    Keywords: Pro-Poor Growth,Regional Economic Development,Services&Transfers to Poor,Rural Poverty Reduction,Inequality
    Date: 2015–06–08
  11. By: Ayoub yousefi (King's University College at Western University, Canada)
    Abstract: This study investigates whether the growing cross-border electronic commerce (CBEC) increases the volume of international trade or merely replaces the traditional mode of physical delivery. We carry out a comparative analysis of trade on Digitizable Products (DP) by developed and developing countries. The study suggests that developing countries have in the recent past penetrated into developed countries’ markets and made up for the fall in their share of world Total trade as well as trade in DP. As a result, electronic delivery of digital products promises benefitting developing countries by gaining deeper access to international markets. This is, in part, due to massive Internet penetration and its continued subscription growth. In addition, digitization of information products is taking place at an ever increasing rate which makes it easier to preserve, access and distribute it through the Internet. Granger causality tests suggest that causality runs form export of Digitizable products to the export of Total products for the group of developing countries, China, Hong Kong and Singapore. The results are in line with our earlier descriptive assessment. This result provides foundation for empirical estimation of the impact of CBEC on the volume of international trade. The paper suggests that given its current magnitude, market efficiency, and growth trajectory, CBEC offers an ‘additional’ basis for explaining the flow of international trade, particularly out of developing countries. As a policy implication, we argue that in the transition period e-commerce creates specific challenges as well as new opportunities for businesses and economies around the world. To facilitate growth of CBEC, nations need to adopt new arrangements at the national and international levels. At the national level, governments should provide support and encourage competition and innovation. Governments should also cooperate at the international level though institutions such as WTO, UNCTAD, and EU to enhance security of the Internet and promote fair and transparent operations of e-commerce.
    Keywords: E-Commerce, Cross-border-E-Commerce, International Trade, Granger Causality Test.
    JEL: F14 O30 O57
  12. By: Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana; Baskaran, Thushyanthan
    Abstract: This paper studies the economic costs of conflicts at the country and ethnic group settlement level with light output data as measured by orbital satellites and conflict data spatially mapped to latitude and longitude coordinates. Using a worldwide dataset of 7,704 individual ethnic group settlements of 862 ethnic groups in 177 countries, we find that conflicts strongly reduce light output in settlements directly affected by fighting over the period 1992-2008. In addition, conflicts have large negative spillovers both across and within countries: light output in settlements not directly exposed to fighting declines significantly once a conflict begins; neighboring countries also experience large negative effects. The negative effects of conflicts are particularly pronounced in Eastern Europe, but also observable in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South and South-East Asia. In contrast, conflicts have, on average, no negative effects on light output in the Middle East and in the West. We contrast these results with cross-country regressions with GDP data, which suggest much smaller negative effects of conflicts.
    Keywords: violent conflicts,economic conditions,light output
    JEL: O10 O40 R10
    Date: 2015
  13. By: Sarah Carmichael; Jan Luiten van Zanden
    Abstract: This contribution compares the EMP, and the associated Western European family system (inheritance practices, intergenerational co-residence and exogamy), with what is known about family systems and marriage patterns in the rest of the world, with a special focus on the consequences of these family systems for human capital formation (in view of recent interpretations that interpret the EMP as a step in the 'quantity-quality' switch in demographic behaviour). This is done in the following ways: first the EMP is defined as a family system characterized by monogamy, exogamy, consensus (no arranged marriages), neo-locality, and a relatively strong position of women in marriage. Next we compare these criteria with ethnographic data from other Eurasian societies (mainly based on George Murdock's ethnographic world atlas), and with global classifications of family systems presented by academics (anthropologists, political scientists and demographic and family historians) such as Emmanuel Todd. We present maps of the institutions determining marriage behavior, and show which features of the EMP can be found elsewhere. In the margin of the Eurasian landmass, marriage systems can be found with certain similarities to the EMP. In the ‘core’ of the continent, in China, Northern India, the Middle East, and Russia, institutions are diametrically opposed to those of the EMP. Finally, we briefly sketch the ‘similar’ marriage systems in Japan, Sumatra, Kerala, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, and try to find out if these relatively female-friendly systems produced high levels of human capital (as the EMP is supposed to have done).
    Keywords: Marriage patterns, Ethnography, Female empowerment, Eurasia, Family, Inheritance, Kinship, Development
    Date: 2015–06
  14. By: Ekaterina Sherstyuk (University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics); Nori Tarui (University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics); Majah-Leah Ravago (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Tatsuyoshi Saijo (Kochi University of Technology)
    Abstract: Dynamic externalities are at the core of many long-term environmental problems, from species preservation to climate change mitigation. We use laboratory experiments to compare welfare outcomes and underlying behavior in games with dynamic externalities under two distinct settings: traditionally studied games with infinitely-lived decision makers, and more realistic intergenerational games. We show that if decision makers change across generations, resolving dynamic externalities becomes more challenging for two distinct reasons. First, decision makers' actions may be short-sighted due to their limited incentives to care about the future generations' welfare. Second, even when the incentives are perfectly aligned across generations, increased strategic uncertainty of the intergenerational setting may lead to an increased inconsistency of own actions and beliefs about the others, making own actions more myopic. Access to history and advice from previous generations may improve dynamic efficiency, but may also facilitate coordination on non-cooperative action paths.
    Keywords: Economic experiments, dynamic externalities, intergenerational games, climate change
    JEL: C92 D62 D90 Q54
    Date: 2015–06

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