nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2015‒06‒05
twenty papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. From Commodity Booms to Economic Miracles: Why Southeast Asian Industry Lagged Behind By Bassino, Jean-Pascal; Williamson, Jeffrey G
  3. Family Size, Household Shocks and Chronic and Transient Poverty in the Philippine Households By Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie; Lim, Joseph Anthony
  4. Multidimensional Poverty: First Evidence from Vietnam By Le, Ha; Nguyen, Cuong; Phung, Tung
  5. Indonesian Macro Policy through Two Crises By Prayudhi Azwar; Rod Tyers
  6. Demographic change in the Asian Century : Implications for Australia and the Region By Peter McDonald
  7. The Urban-Rural Gap in Governance: Evidence from Vietnam By Jairo, Acuna-Alfaro; Nguyen, Cuong; Tran, Anh; Phung, Tung
  8. Australia in the Asian Century By Ken Henry
  9. Climate and land in turmoil: Welfare impacts of extreme weather events and palm oil production expansion in Indonesia By Korkeala, Outi Kaarina
  10. Making the Most of Natural Resources in Indonesia By Richard Dutu
  11. An empirical analysis of the manufacuring sector in vietnam during the periods 2000-2006 with a particular emphasis on technical efficiency, trade reforms ad workplace injuries By Dao, Le Thanh
  12. Chronic and transient poverty and vulnerability to poverty in the Philippines: Evidence using a simple spells approach By Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie; Lim, Joseph Anthony
  13. Three essays on schooling and health in Indonesia. Assessing the effects of family planning on fertility and of supply-side education programmes on BMI, schooling attainment, and wages By Pettersson, Gunilla
  14. The influence of living with parents on women’s decision making participation in the household: Evidence from the Southern Philippines By Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie
  15. External Factors Influencing the Co-constructing of Experiential Learning Between Afghanistan Participants and Malaysian Lecturers By YASHWANORA YAHAYA; HENDON MOHAMAD; NETTIE BOIVIN
  16. Fair weather or foul? the macroeconomic effects of El Niño By Cashin, Paul; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi
  17. Person Equivalent Headcount Measures of Poverty By Tony Castleman; James Foster; Stephen C. Smith
  18. Uniformity and games decomposition By Joseph Abdou; Nikolaos Pnevmatikos; Marco Scarsini
  19. Essays on children, women and economic development By Leone, Maria Anna
  20. Intégration des immigrés et associations en France. Un essai d'approche croisée par l'économie et la géographie By William Berthomière; Mathilde Maurel; Yann Richard

  1. By: Bassino, Jean-Pascal; Williamson, Jeffrey G
    Abstract: Except for the Philippines between 1896 and 1939, Southeast Asia was never part of the century-long East Asian industrial catching up until after World War II. Before the 1950s, Southeast Asian manufacturing hardly grew at all: while commodity export processing did grow fast, import-competing manufacturing and manufacturing for local consumption did not. Singapore and Thailand started recording catching up growth rates on the western leaders only from the 1950s onwards, and Indonesia and Malaysia joined the club only after 1973. Even then, Southeast Asia did not record catching up growth rates on Japan or Taiwan until after 1973 and 1990, respectively. The only Southeast Asian country that appeared to have joined the fast industrial growth club before World War II – the Philippines -- had its industrial growth collapse after the ISI years. What explains this dismal industrial performance before the 1960s? Why did Southeast Asia become a rapid export-led manufacturing growth success story after the 1960s while it did not in Latin America, the Middle East, or South Asia? In seeking answers, we distinguish four periods: de-industrialization and commodity export growth before 1913; a modest diversification into manufacturing during WWI and the interwar years; the development of consumer goods production under import substitution policies between the 1940s and the 1960s; and finally the high speed export-led industrialization since. We show how factor endowments, demography, schooling, second-best institutions, foreign markets, and, especially, good luck mattered.
    Keywords: history; Manufacturing growth; Southeast Asia
    JEL: F14 L60 N65 O14
    Date: 2015–05
  2. By: Yudistira Permana (Universitas Gadjah Mada)
    Abstract: Regional development bank (RDB) in Indonesia is financial institution in purpose to strengthen regional economy through financial inclusion. It is mandated on Act 13/1962 about main rules of RDB in Indonesia. By the time, BPD get into competition with other banks on financial market yet strive for RDB to have financial efficiency. It is needed to increase the competitiveness of RDB and also performing its role as the agent of regional development. This study is going to analyze financial efficiency of RDB in order to influence regional development in Indonesia. We employ panel data method for estimation using period of 2002 to 2012. Analysis will also take place on RDB’s performance to meet the mandate of ‘BPD Regional Champion’ (BRC) in order to be agent of regional development in Indonesia.
    Keywords: RDB, financial efficiency, regional economy
    JEL: O16 C33
    Date: 2014–10
  3. By: Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie; Lim, Joseph Anthony
    Abstract: Using panel data, this paper attempts to analyze the chronic and transient poverty in the Philippines. Results indicate that chronic poverty is the more substantial portion of the Philippine poverty with rural households and households in the Mindanao region as the more afflicted areas. This paper finds that both chronic and transient poverty are affected by negative shocks but negative labor market shocks affect chronic poverty while natural disasters affect transient poverty. Results also indicate that the number of dependent children positively affects chronic poverty but not transient poverty. Policies to lower both types of poverty in the Philippine context are suggested.
    Keywords: chronic poverty; transient poverty; components approach; quantile regression; Philippines; Asia
    JEL: I32
    Date: 2013–10–06
  4. By: Le, Ha; Nguyen, Cuong; Phung, Tung
    Abstract: This study examines multidimensional poverty in Vietnam using the method of Alkire and Foster (2007, 2011) and household data from Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys 2010 and 2012. The poverty is analyzed in five dimensions including health, education, insurance and social support, living condition, and social participation. The result shows that multidimensional poverty has decreased slightly during the 2010-2012 period. There is a large difference between multidimensional poverty and expenditure/income based poverty. While Northern Mountain is the poorest region in terms of income or expenditure, Mekong River Delta is the poorest region in terms of multidimensional poverty. The decomposition analysis shows that the ethnic minority group has a small proportion of population but contributes largely to the national multidimensional poverty. We also decompose the total multidimensional poverty into the contribution of five dimensions. It finds that the deprivation of dimension ‘Social insurance and social assistance’ contributes the most to the total poverty, while the deprivation of dimension ‘Living conditions’ contributes the least to the total poverty.
    Keywords: Multidimensional Poverty; Poverty; Food poverty; Household survey; Vietnam
    JEL: H0 I3
    Date: 2014–12–10
  5. By: Prayudhi Azwar; Rod Tyers
    Abstract: Indonesia’s open, developing economy fielded shocks due to the Asian financial crisis (AFC) and the global financial crisis (GFC) quite differently. Although the origins of both crises were external, during the AFC the coincidence of financial contagion with domestic political upheaval saw the Indonesian economy collapse. By contrast, during the decade-later GFC, when most nations slumped into recession the Indonesian economy slowed but did not recess, achieving real growth of 6.1% (2008) and 4.5% (2009) and recording one of the world’s best performances for the period. This paper reviews these events and employs numerical modelling of stylized AFC and GFC shocks to show that some of the contrast stems from differences in the states of the global economy during the crises and the compositions of the external shocks in each case. This said, both shocks have capital flight elements and it is shown that the key policy responses include floating the exchange rate and fiscal expansions that are, where necessary, money financed. There is, nonetheless, evidence of evolution in Indonesian macroeconomic policy making between the crises that allowed its strong performance to be sustained.
    Keywords: Indonesia, External shocks, Financial crises, Exchange rates Macroeconomic policy
    JEL: E32 E44 E43 E58 F43 F47 N25
    Date: 2015–05
  6. By: Peter McDonald (The Australian National University)
    Abstract: From the demographic perspective, the 21st century is the population ageing century. Population ageing is well underway in all Asian countries as a result of the spectacular falls in both fertility and mortality rates in the second half of the 20th century.
    Keywords: Demographic Trends, Asian Century, Intergenerational Policy
    JEL: J11 J14 J18
    Date: 2015–04
  7. By: Jairo, Acuna-Alfaro; Nguyen, Cuong; Tran, Anh; Phung, Tung
    Abstract: The relationship between development and governance is a central question in the public administration literature on developing countries. Yet, we still understand little about the gap between urban and rural governance in these nations. Our paper tackles this issue using the novel Vietnam Provincial Governance and Public Administration Performance Index (PAPI). PAPI is Vietnam’s largest nationwide survey, and it is considers six dimensions of local public administration, including participation, transparency, accountability, corruption control, administrative procedures, and public service delivery. Using a small area estimation approach we present three new findings. First, urban citizens report better local governance and public administration than rural citizens do. Second, districts with better reported governance tend to have a smaller urban-rural public administration gap. Third, this gap follows a U-shaped pattern, decreasing initially and then increasing slightly as local living standards rise. These findings have implications for priorities in public administration reforms.
    Keywords: Governance, urban-rural difference, PAPI, small area estimation, Vietnam.
    JEL: H0 R1 R2
    Date: 2014–09–10
  8. By: Ken Henry (Crawford School of Public Policy)
    Abstract: This paper examines a new economic narrative for Australia to replace the emphasis on 'competitiveness' that sustained the wave of reform in the 1980s and 1990s. The need to ensure that Australians are endowed with the capabilities that will be relevant to success in this Asian century calls for a renewed focus on these, and other, national endowments. The White Paper on Australia in the Asian Century identified a need for new foundational investments, including public investments : in Australian schools, universities and vocational training centres; in developing Asia-capable workplaces and institutions; in developing a much deeper understanding of the history, cultures, languages, geography and governance of our regional neighbours; in devoting more effort to what has become known as ‘track 2 diplomacy’; in building strong people-to-people relationships based on trust and mutual respect; and in encouraging adaptability. International competitiveness in the Asian century will be enhanced by paying attention to all of these endowments, and leveraging them into commercial partnerships, not by pursuing a race to the bottom on wages, taxes, social foundations, environmental standards or animal welfare.
    Date: 2015–04
  9. By: Korkeala, Outi Kaarina
    Abstract: Climate variability and climate change have become important research topics also in economics. The objective of this thesis is not to forecast the future but to learn from the past by studying how two important climate change-related topics have affected Indonesian households. Delayed monsoon onset, El Niño, will become more frequent with climate change whereas palm oil production is a contributor to climate change. The first essay examines how variability in monsoon onset affects rural households' welfare in terms of household expenditure and farm profits. Using the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) data I find that households in the middle tercile of the expenditure distribution face the biggest albeit temporary losses from delayed monsoon onset. Half of the expenditure decline is due to increase in household size. Conditional on onset, rainfall intensity has only minor effects. The second essay uses the IFLS data to study how schooling and child labour are affected by delayed monsoon onset. The probability of continuing from primary to secondary school is reduced when a delayed onset coincides with the transition year. In other respects, monsoon onset does not affect education of rural children. However, riskier distribution of rain postpones school entry for young children. Moreover, delayed onset increases child labour. Using district-level data on palm oil production and area planted and national household survey (SUSENAS) the third essay studies the impact of oil palm expansion on household expenditure and health. Instrumental variable estimates exploit the historical production and district forest area as an exogenous source of variation. I find that smallholder production has a weak negative impact on household expenditure but this effect is not present among rural households. More, total production increases incidence of asthma in Kalimantan. The findings suggest that palm oil is not a panacea to increase rural welfare.
  10. By: Richard Dutu
    Abstract: Indonesia abounds with natural resources. But the unique nature of its geography, coupled with the lack of transport infrastructure, makes their exploitation challenging. Moreover, a lack of investment, protectionism and an unwieldy regulatory environment are all inhibiting the sector from reaching its full potential. Agriculture has been held back by low productivity, under-investment, unclear property rights on land, ill-advised trade regulations, misplaced support for staples and restrictions on foreign ownership. By pursuing crop diversification, encouraging co-operation between smallholders and large estates and easing constraints on foreign investment, Indonesia could raise its farmers’ productivity. Fossil fuels have become central to Indonesia’s energy policy and its main source of export revenues. Growing environmental concerns, both domestically and internationally, combined with subsiding coal prices and the on-going shale gas revolution, call into question the sustainability of such a strategy. Indonesia should increase its energy efficiency and further develop gas to plug the gap until sufficient renewable energy, especially geothermal, comes on line. Government control over the oil industry via state-owned Pertamina should be gradually reduced. Clarifying, streamlining and publicising simple regulations in energy and minerals, especially regarding land rights and on-shore processing, and removing foreign-ownership restrictions will help bring much needed investment. The pressure on the environment that natural resource exploitation is creating should be addressed by increasing the share of gas and renewables in the energy mix, properly defining property rights and regulations regarding forest land, and implementing a positive implicit carbon price. More resources should be devoted to combating widespread illegal mining and deforestation. This Working Paper relates to the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of Indonesia (<P>Exploiter au mieux les ressources naturelles en Indonésie<BR>L’Indonésie dispose de ressources naturelles abondantes, mais leur exploitation est rendue difficile par la géographique particulière du pays qui se conjugue au manque d’infrastructures de transport. De plus, l’absence d’investissement, le protectionnisme et la complexité de l’environnement réglementaire sont autant de facteurs qui empêchent ce secteur d’atteindre son plein potentiel. L’agriculture pâtit de la faiblesse de la productivité, du sous-investissement, des incertitudes entourant les droits de propriété des terres, de réglementations commerciales peu judicieuses, de mesures inadéquates de soutien aux produits de première nécessité et de restrictions sur les participations étrangères. La productivité des agriculteurs indonésiens pourrait être stimulée par différentes mesures visant à encourager la diversification des cultures, favoriser la coopération entre les petits propriétaires et les grandes exploitations et alléger les contraintes pesant sur l’investissement étranger. Les combustibles fossiles ont pris une place centrale dans la politique énergétique de l’Indonésie et représentent aujourd’hui sa principale source de revenus d’exportation. La montée des préoccupations environnementales, au plan intérieur comme international, qui vient s’ajouter à la diminution des prix du charbon et à la révolution en cours liée au gaz de schiste, appellent à s’interroger sur la viabilité d’une telle stratégie. L’Indonésie pourrait accroître son efficacité énergétique et continuer à développer le gaz pour combler le déficit jusqu’à pouvoir disposer de suffisamment d’énergies renouvelables, notamment géothermique. Le contrôle de l’industrie pétrolière exercé par l’État via l’entreprise publique Pertamina devrait être progressivement réduit. Clarifier, rationaliser et simplifier la réglementation dans les secteurs de l’énergie et des minéraux, en particulier du point de vue des droits fonciers et du traitement terrestre, et lever les restrictions pesant sur les participations étrangères contribueront à attirer les investissements si nécessaires. Les pressions exercées sur l’environnement par l’exploitation des ressources naturelles devraient être allégées par une augmentation de la part du gaz et des énergies renouvelables dans le bouquet énergétique, par une définition adéquate des droits de propriété et des réglementations relatives aux terrains boisés et par la mise en place d’un prix implicite du carbone positif. Il conviendrait de consacrer des ressources plus importantes à la lutte contre les exploitations minières et la déforestation illégales. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de l’Indonésie, 2015 ( ique-indonesie.htm)
    Keywords: environment, gas, natural resources, agriculture, Indonesia, coal, minerals, energy, oil, pétrole, environnement, énergie, charbon, Indonésie, minerais, agriculture, ressources naturelles, gaz
    JEL: O13 O53 Q01
    Date: 2015–05–28
  11. By: Dao, Le Thanh
    Abstract: This thesis investigates empirically the manufacturing sector in Vietnam during the period 2000-2006. The main objective is to provide a comprehensive analysis on the technical performance, and workplace safety of this sector. The analysis uses the sub-dataset for the manufacturing sector extracted from the annual Vietnam Enterprise Surveys for the period under consideration. Chapter one provides an overview of the economic renovation (commonly called Doi moi). The chapter reviews milestones in the Doi moi process and its consequences in terms of economic structural changes, trade, and investment. Chapter two describes the dataset used in the thesis and the construction of the key variables adopted in the subsequent chapters. Chapter three estimates technical efficiency in the Vietnam’s manufacturing sector. The chapter explores if, among other things, the estimates of technical efficiency obtained using the stochastic frontier approach are sensitive to the different distributional and econometric assumptions. Based on several test results, the chapter concludes that average manufacturing sector operated at 62 percent of its technical efficiency. Chapter four investigates empirically the determinants of technical efficiency in the Vietnam’s manufacturing sector using both mean and quantile regression approaches. Results suggested that types of ownership, feminization, and compliance of firms to labour market regulation are among important determinants of technical efficiency. Notably, there is a positive, albeit modest impact of trade liberalization on technical performance of the manufacturing sector and this impact is most pronounced for the least technically efficient firms. Chapter five focuses attention on workplace injuries in the manufacturing sector. As data on workplace injuries in Vietnam is very limited, a number of experiments was tried to find the most relevant estimation strategy. The chapter finally adopts a probit model and a simple OLS to inform determinants of workplace injuries. Results suggest that types of ownership and firm size are important factors that exert influences on workplace injuries reported. Interestingly, the foreign-invested sector was found to be the worst performer compared to the domestic counterparts in terms of technical efficiency and workplace safety. Drawing from these chapters, some policy conclusions, limitations of the current exercise, and outlines of possible agenda for future research in this area are discussed in the conclusion section.
  12. By: Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie; Lim, Joseph Anthony
    Abstract: This paper uses panel data and two welfare indicators, namely per capita expenditure and per capita food expenditure, to determine the frequency that the households enter poverty and food poverty in the Philippines. Unlike other studies, this paper attributes similar factors to explain transient and chronic poverty but finds that these factors are more pronounced for the chronic cases. Significant factors that contribute to both chronic and transient poverty and food poverty are the household heads’ low educational level, affiliation in economically unstable and risky occupations such as those in the agriculture, fishery and resource sectors and those who are unskilled laborers, the lack of health insurance and high dependency burden. It also finds that that vulnerability to poverty and food poverty in the Philippines is high especially in the rural districts and areas with armed conflict. Households that experience higher earnings, new job, abundant harvest, better health or receipt of remittance/inheritance are less likely to be chronically poor. Shocks related to labor market affect both transient and chronic food poverty while natural calamities or health deterioration of any household member increase the probability of the household falling into chronic food poverty. Policies suggestions to address both types of poverty are provided based on these results.
    Keywords: Poverty dynamics; Spells approach; Philippines
    JEL: I32
    Date: 2014
  13. By: Pettersson, Gunilla
    Abstract: In 1969, Indonesia established a national family planning programme and total fertility has declined rapidly since but there is little consensus over the relative contribution of family planning to the observed decline. The first chapter constructs a new measure of family planning exposure to examine the role of family planning in reducing fertility. The causal effects of infant mortality is also examined based on a new instrumental variable, water supply and sanitation programme exposure, and that of schooling using father’s schooling as an instrument. The findings strongly indicate that family planning contributes to lower fertility together with reductions in infant deaths and improvements in women’s schooling, and that the effects of family planning and decreases in infant mortality are larger than that of schooling. In 2002, nearly one-in-ten men and more than one-in-five women in Indonesia were overweight and noncommunicable diseases had become the main cause of death but there exists no evidence on the causal effect of schooling on BMI for developing countries. The second chapter assesses whether more schooling causes healthier BMI in Indonesia by using two instrumental variables to capture exogenous variation in schooling. The first instrument takes advantage of the primary school construction programme (SD INPRES) in the 1970s; the second instrument is father’s schooling. Two results stand out: more schooling causes higher BMI for men and there is no causal effect of schooling on BMI for women. This chapter also provides some very preliminary evidence that the shift from blue collar to white collar and service sector occupations is one contributing factor to why more schooling increases BMI for men. The third chapter also uses the SD INPRES programme but to examine the effect of increased school supply on schooling attainment: overall, by gender, and by socioeconomic background. It also constructs a new SD INPRES programme exposure variable as an instrument for schooling to assess the causal effect of schooling on wages. The results strongly suggest that the SD INPRES programme increased schooling for men and women but that women benefited more as did individuals from less advantageous socioeconomic backgrounds. More schooling also causes higher wages and there appears to be an added positive effect for women through the additional schooling induced by the SD INPRES programme.
  14. By: Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamics of women’s participation in the decisions made in the household by looking at the effects of events that transpired in the recent period. Results suggest that the wife’s participation status is positively affected by the presence of parents, either hers or the spouse’, in the household. Results also show that the wife’s parents significantly affect participation in minor issues while the spouse’s parents significantly affect the more relevant financial issues. The paper also offers a cursory discussion on the role of household headship.
    Keywords: Women's autonomy; Intrahousehold decision-making; Co-residence with parents; Philippines
    JEL: D1
    Date: 2013–08–24
    Abstract: ultural expectations of a language trainer’s role can impede or facilitate trainer/trainee relationship. The Malaysian Australian Education Project for Afghanistan (MAEPA) was a tri-lateral literacy project between the three governments. The 240 Afghanistan master teacher students, in six cohorts, attended the 14 week English Literacy course from 2009-2013. The mixed-method study utilised trainee’s profiles, post-training feedback, lecturers’ interviews, qualitative observations and a translated post-questionnaire. Findings highlight empathy for the students’ socio-cultural home context as an important new socio-cultural factor influencing the Malaysian success in their teacher training. Often expectations of a trainer’s role and image, based on prior cultural beliefs, can impede any classroom trainer/trainee relationship. This article investigates a special type of teacher trainee/master trainee that in this globalised world is becoming increasingly common in the world. This is true in the average classroom unfortunately, in diverse conflict educational contexts there are other hindrances which needs addressing. The case study findings highlight four aspects faced by the master trainers when co-constructing relationships with master teacher trainees from marginalised, fragile TESOL contexts. Extending from Boendermaker’s (2003) skills of a good trainer, knowledge, skill and personality and Garman’s (2005) six key factors of inclusive education the study redefines these to include a new fourth area. The four areas this new factor which require specific empathy are; sharing relationship, building an inclusive empathetic relationship with students, inclusion of women in education, and peaceful diversity.
    Keywords: Peaceful Diversity, Co-constructed Training Relationship, Inclusive Training, Empathy, Fragile Context
    JEL: I29
    Date: 2014–10
  16. By: Cashin, Paul (International Monetary Fund); Mohaddes, Kamiar (University of Cambridge); Raissi, Mehdi (International Monetary Fund)
    Abstract: This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through third-markets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions cross-sectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Niño shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Niño occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño weather episodes.
    JEL: C32 F44 O13 Q54
    Date: 2015–05–01
  17. By: Tony Castleman (Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University); James Foster (Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), Oxford Department of International Development, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford); Stephen C. Smith (George Washington University)
    Abstract: Headcount measures of poverty are by far the most common tools for evaluating poverty and gauging progress in global development goals. The headcount ratio, or the prevalence of poverty, and the headcount, or the number of the poor, both convey tangible information about poverty. But both ignore the depth of poverty, so they arguably present distorted views of the spatial distribution of poverty as well as the extent of progress against poverty over time. Additionally, headcount measures can provide incentives for policymakers to focus their efforts on the least poor, an observation well understood among policymakers themselves. While other poverty measures mitigate these problems by capturing the intensity as well as the prevalence of poverty, they are often dismissed from the policy discourse as being too “unintuitive†to have traction. There is a need for poverty measures that go beyond traditional headcount measures, but retain their direct interpretation. This paper presents person equivalent (p. e.) headcount measures, which do just that. Our approach draws on the logic of full-time equivalent jobs, adult equivalent incomes, and other constructs in economics. An initial period is used to calibrate the average depth of poverty among the poor, which then becomes the “person equivalent†underlying the p. e. headcount and the p. e. headcount ratio. We illustrate our methods using $1.25 a day poverty data from 80 countries as provided by the World Bank, and show how the new measures map out different pictures of poverty and progress than traditional headcount measures. Overall, the picture is one of a more rapid decline in global poverty, but with significant redistributions of its burden across regions and countries. For example, p. e. headcounts are much higher than traditional headcounts in Latin America and the Caribbean and Sub Saharan Africa; in South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific the reverse is true. In Nigeria the traditional headcount rose by 28 million and the p. e. headcount rose by 50 million; in South Africa the p. e. headcount fell by more than the traditional headcount. We discuss properties of the new measures, outline some generalizations and conclude with recommendations for using this approach in development goals to track progress and direct policy.
    Keywords: Poverty measurement, headcount, poverty gap, FGT indices, development goals, inclusive growth, multidimensional poverty
    JEL: I32 O15 D63
    Date: 2015–05
  18. By: Joseph Abdou (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS); Nikolaos Pnevmatikos (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS); Marco Scarsini (Engineering and System Design Pillar - Singapore University of Technology and Design)
    Abstract: We introduce the classes of uniform and non interactive games. We study appropriate projection operators over the space of games, in order to propose a novel canonical direct sum decomposition of an arbitrary game into three components, which we refer to as the uniform with zero constant, the non interactive total sum zero and the constant components. Under a natural inner product, we show that the components are orthogonal and we provide explicit expressions for the closet uniform and non interactive games to a given game. We characterize the set of its approximate equilibria in terms of the uniformly mixed and dominant strategies equilibria profiles of its closest uniform and non interactive games respectively.
    Abstract: On introduit les classes des jeux uniformes et non interactives. On étudie les opérateurs appropriés de projection afin de proposer une nouvelle décomposition de l'espace des jeux en somme directe des trois sous-espaces orthogonaux relativement à un produit scalaire naturel. Ainsi, chaque jeu arbitraire se décompose en trois composantes, la composante uniforme avec constante zéro, la composante non interactive avec somme totale zéro et la composante constante. On fournit alors les expressions explicites des jeux uniformes et non interactifs qui sont les plus proches à un jeu donné. Aussi, on caractérise l'ensemble des équilibres approximatifs en termes d'équilibre uniformément mixte et d'équilibre en stratégies dominantes des jeux les plus proches uniforme et non interactif.
    Date: 2014–11
  19. By: Leone, Maria Anna
    Abstract: This thesis investigates three important themes within the development economics literature that link children, women and economic development. In the first essay we present an analysis of child labour among agricultural households in rural Nepal. We first examine the monetary contribution of child labour to family farms. For this purpose, within a non-separable agricultural household model we estimate a farm production function to obtain shadow wages for both children and adults employed on the farm. Our results reveal that the relative contribution of child labour to family income is not negligible. We then analyse child labour supply to explore whether it is driven by poverty or other reasons such as imperfections in the labour market. We estimate both a reduced form model and a structural equation model. This latter includes the estimated shadow wages and income from the previous analysis. Both models allow for an examination of how child labour supply reacts to a change in the opportunity cost of time and wealth. The reduced form results suggest that an increase in household’s wealth (measured by land endowments) reduces child labour, specifically of girls. This result is consistent with the hypothesis of poverty-induced child labour in the presence of perfect labour markets. This decline, however, occurs for sufficiently high levels of wealth. Imperfections in the labour market may play a role in explaining child labour of boys and in households that are not at the top-end of the land distribution. Estimates of the structural labour supply model, however, yield results on wage and income elasticities that partly contradicts the theoretical predictions. In the second essay we analyse whether and how an increase in the participation of women in a key decision making body of local collective action institutions - the Executive Committee (EC) of Community Forest User Groups (CFUG) in Nepal - affects forest protection, specifically household firewood collection. In many developing countries women are responsible for the collection and management of forest products essential to the daily lives of their household. Therefore they have stronger interests than men in ensuring the availability of these products. Despite this, women are often excluded from the decision-making process that sets out the rules to access and collect forest products within community forests. We account for the potential endogeneity of female participation and exploit an amendment made to the guidelines for CFUG formation that sets a higher iv threshold for women representation in the Executive Committee to evaluate the impact of women on firewood extraction. The results indicate that higher female participation in the ECs of CFUGs leads to a decrease in firewood extraction. This evidence is suggestive that women are prioritising conservation to ensure sustainable firewood extraction for their daily needs. In the third essay we analyse the short and long-term impact of violence on education in Timor Leste. Specifically, we examine the effect of the 1999 violence on school attendance in 2001 and its longer-term impact on primary school completion of the same cohorts of children observed again in 2007. We compare the educational impact of the 1999 violence with the impact of other periods of high-intensity violence during the 25 years of Indonesian occupation. The short-term effects of the conflict are mixed. In the longer term, we find evidence of a substantial loss of human capital among boys in Timor Leste exposed to peaks of violence during the 25-year long conflict. The evidence suggests that this result may be due to household trade-offs between education and economic welfare.
  20. By: William Berthomière (MIGRINTER - Migrations internationales, espaces et sociétés - CNRS - Université de Poitiers); Mathilde Maurel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International - FERDI); Yann Richard (PRODIG - Pôle de recherche pour l'organisation et la diffusion de l'information géographique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - EPHE - École pratique des hautes études - UP4 - Université Paris-Sorbonne - AgroParisTech - UP7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - IRD - Institut de recherche pour le développement - CNRS)
    Abstract: The issue of integration is key in the literature about migration. It refers to a set of public policies aiming at integrating foreign populations in a given society. This paper aims at investigating the relationships between the integration of four communities installed in France (Algerian, Portugese, Turkish, and Vietnamese) and the presence of associations. The methodology is rooted on two approaches, quantitative economics and geography. It uses a new database, extracted from the Journal Officiel and several surveys, noticeably TeO. In a first step we ask whether the regional distribution and the density of associations explain the degree of integration of the migrants stemming from the four communities. In a second step we test whether memberships into an association increases or decreases the adoption of oppositional identities and if the latter influences the integration via the access to employment.
    Abstract: Le thème de l'intégration est un des principaux angles d'attaque de la littérature scientifique consacrée à l'immigration. Il désigne un ensemble de politiques mises en œuvre par les pouvoirs publics pour que des populations soient correctement insérées dans une société donnée. Dans cet article, l'objectif est de voir s'il existe une relation entre l'intégration des personnes appartenant à quatre communautés présentes en France (Algériens, Portugais, Turcs, Vietnamiens) et l'existence d'associations. La méthode repose sur le croisement d'une approche géographique et d'une approche économique, en mobilisant des données inédites issues du Journal Officiel et de plusieurs enquêtes démographiques, notamment l'enquête TeO. On tente de voir d'abord si les variations régionales de la densité des réseaux associatifs communautaires explique la plus ou moins grande intégration des immigrés de ces quatre groupes. Ensuite, en utilisant plusieurs modèles, on tente de voir si l'appartenance à une ou à des associations non communautaires renforce l'adhésion des immigrés à des valeurs oppositionnelles au modèle culturel du pays d'accueil et si cela a une influence au moins indirecte sur leur intégration par l'accès à l'emploi.
    Date: 2015–01

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