nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2015‒02‒28
fifty-six papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Viet Nam: Financial Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map By Asian Development Bank (ADB) ; ; ;
  2. Policy initiatives and …firms access to external fi…nance: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies By Udichibarna Bose ; Ronald MacDonald ; Serafeim Tsoukas
  3. ASEAN Corporate Governance Scorecard: Country Reports and Assessments 2013-2014 By Asian Development Bank (ADB) ; ; ;
  4. Inputs for Philippine Hosting of APEC 2015: Food Security By Briones, Roehlano M. ; Galang, Ivory Myka R. ; Israel, Danilo C.
  6. Establishing the Linkages of Human Resource Development with Inclusive Growth By Tullao, Tereso Jr. S. ; Cabuay, Christopher James ; Hofilena, Daniel
  7. ICT and Economic Development:Conclusion from IO Analysis for Selected ASEAN Member States By Tony Irawan
  8. Philippine Priorities in Expanding APEC-Wide Connectivity through Infrastructure Development By Navarro, Adoracion M.
  9. Supporting WTO and Pathways to the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) By Medalla, Erlinda M. ; Maddawin, Angelica B.
  10. APEC 2015: Global Value Chains and Services By Serafica, Ramonette B.
  11. Republic of the Philippines National Urban Assessment By Asian Development Bank (ADB) ; ; ;
  12. Development Finance and Aid in the Philippines: Policy, Institutional Arrangements and Flows By Llanto, Gilberto M. ; Navarro, Adoracion M. ; Ortiz, Ma. Kristina P.
  13. Dynamic Shift to a Basket-Peg or Floating Regime in East Asian Countries in Response to the People's Republic of China's Transition to a New Exchange Rate Regime By Yoshino, Naoyuki ; Kaji, Sahoko ; Asonuma, Tamon
  14. Increasing Economic Opportunities of Women in the APEC By Lazo, Lucita
  15. Review of Design and Implementation of the Agricultural Insurance Programs of the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation By Mina, Christian D. ; Reyes, Celia M. ; Gloria, Reneli Ann B. ; Mercado, Sarah Joy P.
  16. A Linkage between Firm Agglomeration and Poverty Reduction First evidence in Vietnam By Long Thanh Giang ; Cuong Viet Nguyen ; Tuyen Quang Tran
  17. People-to-People Tourism in APEC: Facilitating Cross-Border Entry and Exit, with Special Focus on ASEAN By Picazo, Oscar F. ; dela Cruz, Nina Ashley O. ; Ututalum, Soraya
  18. SME Internationalization through Global Value Chains and Free Trade Agreements: Malaysian Evidence By Arudchelvan, Menaka ; Wignaraja, Ganeshan
  19. Use of FTAs from Thai Experience By Archanun KOHPAIBOON ; Juthathip JONGWANICH
  20. Enjoying the Fruits of their Labor: Redirecting exports to Asian consumers By THORBECKE, Willem
  21. Do soaring global oil prices heat up the housing market? Evidence from Malaysia By Le, Thai-Ha
  22. Supply Chain Connectivity: Enhancing Participation in the Global Supply Chain By Patalinghug, Epictetus E.
  23. Fiscal Policy and Equity in Advanced Economies: Lesssons for Asia By Gemma ESTRADA ; James ANGRESANO ; Jo Thori LIND ; Niku MAATTANEN ; William MCBRIDE ; Donghyun PARK ; Motohiro SATO ; Karin SVANBORG-SJOVALL
  24. Long-Term Health Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service: A Quasi-Experiment Using Australian Conscription Lotteries By Johnston, David W. ; Shields, Michael A. ; Siminski, Peter
  25. Building Philippine MSMEs Resilience to Natural Disasters By Ballesteros, Marife M. ; Domingo, Sonny N.
  26. Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures By Asian Development Bank (ADB) ; ; ;
  27. What causes economic growth in Malaysia: exports or imports ? By Hashim, Khairul ; Masih, Mansur
  28. Targeting the Agricultural Poor: The Case of PCIC`s Special Programs By Mina, Christian D. ; Reyes, Celia M. ; Gloria, Reneli Ann B.
  29. Do the macroeconomic variables have any impact on the Islamic bank deposits?An application of ARDL approach to the Malaysian market By Mobin, Mohammad Ashraful ; Masih, Mansur
  30. FTA in international finance : impacts of exchange rates on FTA utilization By Hayakawa, Kazunobu ; Kim, HanSung ; Yoshimi, Taiyo
  31. Social Protection in ASEAN: Challenges and Initiatives for Post-2015 Vision By Fauziah ZEN ; Mukul G. ASHER
  32. Which type of government revenue leads government expenditure? By Abdi, Zeinab ; Masih, Mansur
  33. Does Innovation Mediate Good Firm Performance? By Llanto, Gilberto M. ; del Prado, Fatima
  34. “Volatility Transmission between the stock and Currency Markets in Emerging Asia: the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis” By Nàtalia Valls ; Helena Chulià
  35. Financial Development and Economic Growth in ASEAN: Evidence from Panel Data By Lerohim, Siti Nor FarahEffera ; Affandi, Salwani ; W. Mahmood, Wan Mansor
  36. Growth, green capital and public policies By Pierre-André Jouvet ; Julien Wolfersberger
  37. Does Africa Really Lack International Competitiveness? Comparisons between Africa and Asia By Martin, Frederic ; Calkins, Peter H. ; Lariviere, Sylvain
  38. Assessment of the DSWD SEA-K Strategy By Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C. ; Llanto, Gilberto M. ; Rosellon, Maureen Ane D. ; Ballesteros, Marife M. ; Magtibay, Jasmine E. ; Bolanos, Larraine ; Salazar, Christine
  39. Harnessing the Power of ICT and Innovation Case Study Singapore By Angie Tan
  40. Agglomeration effects of informal sector: evidence from Cambodia By Tanaka, Kiyoyasu ; Hashiguchi, Yoshihiro
  41. Tariffs and STEs in ASEAN Rice Trade: Impacts of Removing Trade Barriers Using a Partial Equilibrium Approach By Hoang, Hoa ; Meyers, William
  42. Assessing potential growth in emerging countries after the global financial crisis By Enrica Di Stefano ; Daniela Marconi
  43. Hoard Behavior During Commodity Bubbles By De Paula, Áureo ; Hong, Harrison G ; Singh, Vishal
  44. Increasing household debts and its relation to GDP, interest rate and house price: Malaysia’s perspective By Rahman, Sharezan ; Masih, Mansur
  45. The Relationship between Disaggregate Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Environment for Asian Developing Economies By Ali Raza Cheema ; Attiya Yasmin Javid
  46. Can the knowledge capital model explain foreign investment in services ? the case of Singapore By Chellaraj, Gnanaraj ; Mattoo, Aaditya
  47. An application of MGARCH-DCC analysis on selected currencies in terms of gold Price By Mohamad, Sharifah Fairuz Syed ; Masih, Mansur
  48. Comonotonic Monte Carlo and its applications in option pricing and quantification of risk. By Alain Chateauneuf ; Mina Mostoufi ; David Vyncke
  49. Sieve Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression Estimation of Functional Coefficient Models By Su Liangjun ; Tadao Hoshino
  50. Premature Deindustrialization By Dani Rodrik
  51. Premature Deindustrialization By Rodrik, Dani
  52. Towards Trade Policy Analysis 2.0: From National Comparative Advantage to Firm-Level Trade Data By Cernat, Lucian
  53. Bubble or Riddle? An Asset-Pricing Approach Evaluation on China’s Housing Market By Qu FENG ; Guiying Laura WU
  54. Explaining the de facto Open-access of Public Property Commons By Junaid Alam Memon ; Gopal B. Thapa
  55. The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy By Norhana Endut ; James Morley ; Pao-Lin Tien
  56. Rise of the Machines: The Effects of Labor-Saving Innovations on Jobs and Wages By Feng, Andy ; Graetz, Georg

  1. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB) ; (Southeast Asia Department, ADB ); ;
    Abstract: This sector assessment, strategy, and road map highlights the Government of Viet Nam’s plans and strategies for addressing priority needs for the financial sector and identifies possible preliminary areas of international assistance. It assesses key sector development needs by analyzing strengths, constraints and weaknesses, various risks, potential threats, as well as opportunities. This knowledge product serves as a basis for further dialogue on how the Asian Development Bank and the government can work together to tackle the challenges of managing financial sector development in Viet Nam in the coming years.
    Keywords: adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, doi moi, financial institutions vietnam, financial sector vietnam, banking vietnam, bond markets vietnam, nonperforming loans vietnam, state-owned commercial banks vietnam, money market vietnam
    Date: 2014–08
  2. By: Udichibarna Bose ; Ronald MacDonald ; Serafeim Tsoukas
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of policy initiatives co-ordinated by Asian national governments on fi…rms access to external …finance, using a unique …firm-level database of eight Asian countries- Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand over the period of 1996-2012. Using a difference-in- differences approach and controlling for …firm-level and macroeconomic factors, the results show a signi…cant impact of policy on …rmsaccess to external …nance. After splitting …firms into constrained and unconstrained, using several criteria, the results document that unconstrained …firms bene…ted signi…cantly in obtaining external …finance, compared to their constrained counterparts. Finally, we show that the increase in access to external …nance after the policy initiative helped …rms to raise their investment spending, especially for unconstrained …firms.
    Keywords: External …nance; Emerging Asia; Bond market policy initiatives; Financial constraints
    JEL: C23 E44 G15 G32 O16
    Date: 2014–01
  3. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB) ; (Southeast Asia Department, ADB ); ;
    Abstract: Corporate Governance (CG) principles provide guidance on how corporations should operate. Adoption of international CG best practices leads to long-term sustainability and resilience, and can be a competitive tool to attract foreign investments. The Asian Development Bank in partnership with the ASEAN Capital Markets Forum have jointly developed the ASEAN Corporate Governance Scorecard, an assessment based on publicly available information and benchmarked against international best practices that encourage publicly listed companies to go beyond national legislative requirements. This report can be used by capital market regulators and other stakeholders as a reference to understand the current CG standards across the region. It is also a useful diagnostic tool to guide improvement of CG standards.
    Keywords: adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, publicly listed companies, asean capital markets forum, indonesia, malaysia, philippines, Singapore, thailand, vietnam, corporate governance assessment, domestic ranking bodies, ASEAN corporate governance scorecard
    Date: 2014–06
  4. By: Briones, Roehlano M. ; Galang, Ivory Myka R. ; Israel, Danilo C.
    Abstract: Initiatives toward the attainment of global food security have been done not just unilaterally but also regionally and globally. Among the platforms which have made great efforts in this aspect is the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). In 2015, the Philippines will host the next APEC Summit. Food security shall be high on the agenda of the Summit and of various meetings. To provide advice to the Philippine Government on the possible Philippine position on food security during its hosting, this paper recommends that the Philippines should adopt agribusiness development based on sustainable food supply chains as its priority advocacy, while continuing to promote elements of food security as expressed in the APEC Road Map. This "branding" integrates a strong position on Blue Economy with the agribusiness development and road map thrusts of the DTI and DA.
    Keywords: Philippines, food security, Blue Economy, agribusiness development, sustainable food supply chains
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Orachos Napasintuwong (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics,Faculty of Economics,Kasetsart University,Thailand )
    Abstract: The seed industry in Thailand is among the advanced and well-developed industries in Asia. Maize contributes to the largest share of seed production and trade. The government and international organizations contributed significantly to the success of the maize seed industry in Thailand by building infrastructure for research and promoting the role of the private sector in the industry during the early years. The private sector also added to the industry’s rapid expansion through constant and heavy investment in research and development. Thailand’s goal of becoming a seed hub center in this region is bolstered by its suitable geography and weather, numerous highly trained plant scientists, wide diversity of germplasm, and membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economic Community (AEC), which will come into effect at the end of 2015. Despite promising motivations, domestic regulations could be prohibitive factors in Thailand’s becoming competitive in the regional seed market. This paper provides the history of development; an analysis of the current industry’s structure, conduct, and performance; and a review of related regulations of the maize seed industry in Thailand. The lessons learned from the success of the maize seed industry in Thailand could provide implications for the development of the seed industry in other developing countries.
    Keywords: seed, maize, privatization, intellectual property rights, IPR, structure, conduct, performance
    JEL: Q13 L1
    Date: 2015–02
  6. By: Tullao, Tereso Jr. S. ; Cabuay, Christopher James ; Hofilena, Daniel
    Abstract: This study is one of the component papers in the priority area on inclusive growth of Project APEC 2015. This paper aims to establish the linkages of enhancing human capital and human resource development in an economy in attaining inclusive growth. Various studies have suggested that education, training, and human resource development in general raise the productivity of workers through the transmission of knowledge, skills, and competencies, which then increase the earnings capacity of an individual. Inclusive growth refers to economic growth performance that encompasses equity, equality in both income and opportunities, and protection in market and employment transitions. Because of the link between education and earnings capacity, improving education will lead to inclusive growth as educated individuals enhance their employment opportunities, improve their income, and pursue entrepreneurial options. The state of education in the Philippines as well as in APEC economies was analyzed in terms of quality, relevance, access and equity, and efficiency and effectiveness. Likewise, options for the development of human resources in the Philippines and lessons learnt from best practices in APEC economies were categorized according to these four dimensions. Lastly, this study enumerates several actionable recommendations to help the region develop its human resources and ultimately attain inclusive growth through cooperation among the economies in bridging the development and human resource gaps in the Asia-Pacific region.
    Keywords: human resource development, human capital, Philippines, inclusive growth, APEC 2015, Philippine education, Asia-Pacific region
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Tony Irawan (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW) )
    Abstract: The impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on economic performance has been an interesting issue in economics. There are at least three key points that can be learnt from the previous literatures regarding ICT and country’s economic performance. First, more developed countries are expected to benefit greater than less developed countries. Second, the impact of ICT will depend on the intensity of ICT utilization. Third, the size and structure of ICT sector of country’s economy does matter. The main contribution of this paper is to evaluate those three points by conducting comparative analysis based on Input-Output (I-O) Table from four ASEAN Member States, namely Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. ASEAN is used because it is one of the regional associations that have a large income gap among its members. The results suggest that more developed countries (which are measured by income per capita) do not always benefit greater than less developed countries from ICT development. The magnitude of ICT impact on the economy depends on the intensity of ICT utilization and the structure of ICT sector
    Keywords: ICT, economic performance, economic development, ASEAN
    JEL: O14 O53 L63 L86 L96
    Date: 2013–11
  8. By: Navarro, Adoracion M.
    Abstract: Well-developed infrastructure systems and services are vital means of enhancing the connectivity of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member-economies. In essence, efforts by APEC to enhance connectivity through infrastructure should be considered regional public goods since these create positive spill-over effects for each member of the region, or net benefits for a member which are greater than what it could achieve if it were to produce the by-products of regional cooperation on its own. To contribute to APEC efforts and at the same time help meet the infrastructure development needs of the Philippines, this study recommends that the Philippine government elevate cross-cutting topics and sector-specific concerns as priorities for discussion during its hosting of APEC 2015. The Philippines can propose regional cooperation on investing and building disaster-resilient infrastructure, as well as sharing of best practices and lessons learned in complying with infrastructure resilience requirements (e.g., plans, technologies, and logistics for humanitarian activities). The Philippines can also drive discussions related to public-private partnerships (PPPs) by expressing the need for truly dynamic capacity building and sharing of best practices on viability studies, risk sharing, and contracting (from design to management and monitoring)--which are crucial factors in ensuring that PPP projects are bankable. The Philippines can also recommend knowledge sharing and actual investments toward infrastructure quality upgrading in the transport, energy, telecommunications and information sectors.
    Keywords: infrastructure, APEC, transportation, Philippines, energy, public-private partnership (PPP), connectivity, regional cooperation, telecommunications and information
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Medalla, Erlinda M. ; Maddawin, Angelica B.
    Abstract: The discussions on the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) have evolved in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings since 2004 when the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) presented a study suggesting a possible integration of the Asia-Pacific region. The most recent development in this regard is the support of China during its hosting and the formulation of a roadmap about the APEC`s Contribution to the Realization of the FTAAP. The paper revisits the factors that could shape the way forward, and some implications on what position the Philippines should take. In particular, it looks at the emerging mega blocks in the APEC region--the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and possible scenarios. The paper highlights the important role of APEC as venue for discussions to steer the region toward regional integration that is supportive of the WTO and APEC goals, and act as a mechanism for enhancing ECOTECH and capability-building efforts to prepare less developed countries in deeper and wider areas of liberalization.
    Keywords: World Trade Organization, Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Trans-Pacific Partnership, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, 2015 APEC hosting
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Serafica, Ramonette B.
    Abstract: APEC 2015 provides an opportunity for the Philippines to advance its economic interests in services and contribute to regional integration by focusing on global value chains (GVCs) which are now believed to account for more than 50 percent of global trade. This paper looks at the GVC phenomenon and presents measures of GVC participation at the aggregate level. It then discusses the role of services in GVCs and proposes that further analytical work on services value chains in the Asia-Pacific region be undertaken. This will contribute to a better understanding of how individual economies can maximize GVC participation and how APEC can create the appropriate policy environment conducive to the growth of services value chains.
    Keywords: global value chains, APEC Philippine hosting, APEC services, competitive services
    Date: 2015
  11. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB) ; (Regional and Sustainable Development Department, ADB ); ;
    Abstract: The Urban Operational Plan (UOP) 2012–2020 of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) supports ADB developing member countries (DMCs) in expanding their urban economies, improving environmental sustainability, and making pro-poor investments through a 3E approach (Economy, Environment, and Equity). This case study on the Philippines is based on thematic areas of the National Urban Sustainability Assessment framework for developing strategic policy options and targeted investments in the urban sector. This publication shows how the framework acts as a tool for conducting rapid urban assessments at both national and urban region levels for DMCs.
    Keywords: urban assessment, housing, transport, urban economies, environmental sustainability, pro-poor, Philippines, urbanization
    Date: 2014–08
  12. By: Llanto, Gilberto M. ; Navarro, Adoracion M. ; Ortiz, Ma. Kristina P.
    Abstract: The Philippines` recent economic performance has been remarkable amid the lingering slowdown in the global economy and the devastation brought about by recent natural disasters. The economy grew by 7.2 percent in 2013, substantially higher than its 6.8 percent growth in 2012. With GDP growth averaging at 5.9 percent in the last three years, the Philippines is one of the better performers among developing economies. However, the economy faces problems of high poverty incidence and income inequality. The main challenge is how to sustain rapid and inclusive growth. It is important for the government`s inclusive growth strategy and development agenda to be supported by responsive development finance. This Development Finance and Aid Assessment prepared for the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) takes stock of current development finance in the Philippines. It provides a comprehensive survey of development finance and aid scenario in the Philippines in the next five to 10 years. It offers policy recommendations and proposals for enhancements on development financing in the country.
    Keywords: remittances, tax effort, Philippines, official development assistance (ODA), public-private partnership (PPP), inclusive growth, development finance, inclusive finance
    Date: 2015
  13. By: Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute ); Kaji, Sahoko (Asian Development Bank Institute ); Asonuma, Tamon (Asian Development Bank Institute )
    Abstract: This paper analyzes a desirable transition path for East Asian countries given the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) transition to a new exchange rate regime. It attempts to answer two main questions: (i) Would these countries be better off shifting to either a basket peg or a floating regime following the PRC's transition to a basket peg regime? (ii) How and when should these countries shift to the desired regime? The paper captures the influence of the PRC's predetermined shift in its exchange rate regime on East Asian countries' decisions regarding their optimal transition policies based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy. Our calibration exercise using Malaysian and Singapore data from the first quarter (Q1) of 2000 to Q4 2012 reveals that a gradual adjustment to a basket peg is the most desirable policy for both countries. A sudden shift to a basket peg is superior to maintaining a dollar peg in Malaysia, but not in Singapore. Finally, a sudden shift to a floating regime is even worse than maintaining a dollar peg in both countries.
    Keywords: basket peg; floating regime; exchange rate transition; peoples republic of china; monetary policy
    JEL: F33 F41 F42
    Date: 2015–02–17
  14. By: Lazo, Lucita
    Abstract: The paper argues for increasing women`s economic opportunities in the APEC region and states that women`s participation in the economy is skewed toward micro and small enterprises and they are mostly self-employed entrepreneurs in the informal economy. It summarizes the challenges commonly encountered by women entrepreneurs in the APEC economies and recommends actions to address these at the Philippine economy level and at the APEC regional level.
    Keywords: APEC, Philippines, informal economy, women, micro and small enterprises
    Date: 2015
  15. By: Mina, Christian D. ; Reyes, Celia M. ; Gloria, Reneli Ann B. ; Mercado, Sarah Joy P.
    Abstract: The situation of the poor who participate in the country`s agricultural sector has been exacerbated by the increasingly prevalent natural calamities, pests, and other such unpredictable event. However, there are certain risk management tools that aid in lessening the farmers` financial burden when losses related to such natural disasters are incurred. One of them is the crop or agricultural insurance. In the Philippines, the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation (PCIC) is the government organization that implements rice, corn, high-value commercial crop, livestock, noncrop agricultural asset, fishery, and term insurance programs. The question thus arises regarding the effectiveness and sustainability of the said programs. It is thus the purpose of this study to review the design and implementation of the PCIC`s insurance programs. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions with various PCIC clients and partners in selected regions of the country, together with desktop review and secondary data analysis, were conducted.
    Keywords: Philippines, agricultural insurance, Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation, design, implementation, process evaluation
    Date: 2015
  16. By: Long Thanh Giang ; Cuong Viet Nguyen ; Tuyen Quang Tran
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the linkage between the firm agglomeration and welfare of local households in Vietnam. We measured the firm agglomeration by per capita firm outputs at the district level, and household welfare by per capita income, expenditure and poverty. We find that the firm agglomeration helps households move from the informal sector to the formal sector. As a result, there is a positive effect of the firm agglomeration on per capita income, per capita expenditure, and poverty reduction, albeit at a small and time-decreasing magnitude. The effect of the firm agglomeration on per capita expenditure tends to be higher for households with male, younger and more educated heads than households with female, older and less educated heads. Households who live in rural areas and do not have crop land are more likely to benefit from the firm agglomeration than those living in urban areas and having cropland.
    Keywords: agglomeration, firm performance, poverty, household survey, panel data, Vietnam.
    JEL: L11 I31 I30
    Date: 2015–02–10
  17. By: Picazo, Oscar F. ; dela Cruz, Nina Ashley O. ; Ututalum, Soraya
    Abstract: This paper discusses the promotion of person-to person (PTP) tourism in the member-countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), focusing on the ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). PTP can be defined as the cross-border movement of people from one country to another on a repeated basis for (a) educational, training, or related capacity building; (b) research and development (R&D) cooperation; (c) police, constabulary, military, security, or anti-crime assignments; (d) responding to health epidemics or outbreaks; (e) medical tourism; (f) responding to disaster or calamity; (g) management of environmental parks and natural resource assets; (h) local border traffic; and (i) other valid reasons that APEC countries will deem important. The paper situates PTP tourism in the context of intra-ASEAN and APEC tourism, discusses the rationale for increasing PTP tourism, and the current obstacles of doing this. It reviews recent international practices in promoting PTP tourism through entry and exit facilitation, identifying general as well as specific programs and policies in a number of innovating countries. The paper ends with recommendations to facilitate PTP tourism in ASEAN and APEC.
    Keywords: ASEAN, APEC, person-to-person tourism, visa facilitation
    Date: 2015
  18. By: Arudchelvan, Menaka (Asian Development Bank Institute ); Wignaraja, Ganeshan (Asian Development Bank Institute )
    Abstract: Growing internationalization of firms in Asia through participation in global value chains (GVCs) and free trade agreements (FTAs) has focused attention on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Yet there is scant literature on the characteristics of SMEs involved in GVCs and FTAs. Malaysia is reputed for its engagement in GVCs and is actively pursuing FTAs. Drawing on a survey of Malaysian enterprises, this paper examines the characteristics of SMEs in GVCs and FTAs and explores the policy implications. It finds that even among SMEs, firm size matters for participation in GVCs and FTAs. But size is not the whole story for SME internationalization. Licensing of foreign technology and investment in research and development are also positively associated with SMEs joining GVCs. Furthermore, increased exposure to international trade, knowledge of FTA provisions and central location positively affects the use of FTAs by SMEs. More business support for SMEs can help them to engage in GVCs and FTAs.
    Keywords: internationalization; global value chains. utilization of free trade agreement; firm-level analysis
    JEL: F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2015–02–18
  19. By: Archanun KOHPAIBOON (Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University ); Juthathip JONGWANICH (School of Management, Asian Institute of Technology )
    Abstract: TThis paper examines in depth the use of free trade agreements (FTAs) in Thailand to shed light on the ongoing negotiation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The key finding is that while certificate of origin records significantly increased over the period in consideration, their value remained less than one-third of total trade. The ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) and its successor, ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), accounted for the largest share with a noticeably declining relative importance. Products that are often traded under an FTA preferential trade scheme are highly concentrated, dominated by automotive (both vehicles and auto parts), electrical appliances, petrochemical products, and processed foods. Firms in these sectors are generally large in size and their products have a high level of local content. Evidence that the top 15 items are usually subject to high tariff margins suggests the presence of costs incurred to firms when applying for a certificate of origin. Our analysis suggests that we should be avoid maximizing a number of signed FTAs as a mercantilism style policy tool kit to open up market as well as maximize net export earnings as we tried in the early years of the new millennium. Instead, FTAs could be used as a gradual step in making a progress of unfinished business in trade and investment policy reform. To encourage firms to use the signed FTA, policy focus should be on the rules of origin and their related administrative procedures.
    Keywords: Thailand, Free Trade Agreement, Asian Economic Community, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
    JEL: F15 O24 O53
    Date: 2015–01
  20. By: THORBECKE, Willem
    Abstract: There has been an explosion of parts and components traded within East Asian production networks. China has emerged as the final assembly point for the goods produced. These goods then flow primarily outside of the region. When the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) occurred, the decrease in Western demand led to a synchronized decline in Asian exports. If more final goods could flow to Asian consumers, this would provide insurance against another slowdown in the rest of the world. This paper uses a gravity model to investigate if emerging Asia is importing fewer consumption goods than predicted. The results indicate that, after the GFC, China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have imported more final goods than expected. Nevertheless, the ratio of China's imports per capita relative to gross domestic product (GDP) per capita remains much lower than the corresponding ratio for other countries. This highlights the need to address structural issues such as tariffs that can lead to the under-importing of final goods.
    Date: 2015–02
  21. By: Le, Thai-Ha
    Abstract: This study analyses the effects of oil price and macroeconomic shocks on the Malaysian housing market using a SVAR framework. The specification of the baseline model is based on standard economic theory. The Gregory-Hansen (GH) cointegration tests reveal that there is no cointegration among the variables of interest. Results from performing Toda-Yamamoto (TY) non-Granger causality tests show that oil price, labor force and inflation are the leading factors causing movements in the Malaysian housing prices in the long run. The findings from estimating generalized impulse response functions (IRFs) and variance decompositions (VDCs) indicate that oil price and labor force shocks explain a substantial portion of housing market price fluctuations in Malaysia.
    Keywords: housing market fluctuations,oil price shocks,macroeconomic shocks,Malaysia
    JEL: Q43 O18
    Date: 2015
  22. By: Patalinghug, Epictetus E.
    Abstract: Supply chain connectivity is vital for the efficient flow of trade among APEC economies. This paper reviews the literature and supply chain management, describes the barriers to enhancing participation in global supply chain, analyzes the various measures of supply chain performance, and suggests steps for the Philippines to fully reap the benefits of the global value chain.
    Keywords: APEC, transportation, supply chain connectivity, global supply chain
    Date: 2015
  23. By: Gemma ESTRADA (Senior Economics Officer, Asian Development Bank ); James ANGRESANO (Professor of Political Economy, College of Idaho ); Jo Thori LIND (Professor, University of Oslo ); Niku MAATTANEN (Research Supervisor, Research Institute of the Finnish Economy ); William MCBRIDE (Chief Economist, Tax Foundation, Washington DC ); Donghyun PARK (Principal Economist, Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank ); Motohiro SATO (Professor, Graduate School Economics, Hitotsubashi University ); Karin SVANBORG-SJOVALL (President of Timbro, Sweden )
    Abstract: Advanced economies have a longer history of leveraging fiscal policy to address inequality relative to developing Asia. We examine the country experiences of the Nordic countries, France, Japan, and the US, to draw lessons for developing Asia in its relatively new quest to use fiscal policy to promote inclusive growth. Those experiences suggest that fiscal policy can indeed be an effective tool for inclusive growth as long as it does not compromise fiscal sustainability or economic growth.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy, inequality, inclusive growth, advanced countries, developing Asia
    JEL: D31 H20 H50
    Date: 2015–01
  24. By: Johnston, David W. (Monash University ); Shields, Michael A. (Monash University ); Siminski, Peter (University of Wollongong )
    Abstract: This paper estimates the long-term health effects of Vietnam-Era military service using Australia's National conscription lotteries for identification. Our primary contribution is the quality and breadth of our health outcomes. We use several administrative sources, containing a near-universe of records on mortality (1994-2011), cancer diagnoses (1982-2008), and emergency hospital presentations (2005-2010). We also analyse a range of self-reported morbidity indicators (2006-2009). We find no significant long-term effects on mortality, cancer or emergency hospital visits. In contrast, we find significant detrimental effects on a number of morbidity measures. Hearing and mental health appear to be particularly affected.
    Keywords: military service, health, conscription, Australia, Vietnam War
    JEL: H56 I10 I13
    Date: 2015–02
  25. By: Ballesteros, Marife M. ; Domingo, Sonny N.
    Abstract: Disasters are bad for business specifically for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). These catastrophic events can compromise capital, supply chains, product market, and labor, which compromise business continuity and recovery. Physical damage and disruptions in supply and labor can cause temporary business closure while structural repairs to buildings and recovery or replacement of damaged equipment needed to restore operations require large amount of resources. The adverse impact may not only be short term but can have medium to long-term effects. Unfortunately, the disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) framework of government has not been effectively translated into local and sectoral (or business) plans. Philippine MSMEs thus are highly vulnerable, have weak adaptability and limited access to a broader set of coping strategies. This paper recommends strategic policies to embed DRRM into the business sector and the role of APEC in promoting MSMEs resilience in the region.
    Keywords: Philippines, business, disasters, resilience, micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
    Date: 2015
  26. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB) ; (Economics and Research Department, ADB ); ;
    Abstract: This report presents the results of purchasing power parities (PPPs) in the 2011 International Comparison Program in Asia and the Pacific and background information on the concepts that underpin the results. The PPPs are disaggregated by major economic aggregates that enable robust cross-country comparisons. It includes variables such as per capita real gross domestic product, real per capita actual final consumption expenditure for measures of economic well-being, gross fixed capital formation reflecting investment, and price level indexes showing relative cost of living by economy.
    Keywords: international comparison program, purchasing power parity, ICP, PPP, 2011 ICP, 2011 PPP, national accounts, gross domestic product, GDP, household expenditures, gross fixed capital formation, investment, construction, education, health, transportation, GDP aggregates, GDP categories, exchange rates, price, market exchange rates, conversion factor, price levels, price level index, index numbers, index, consumer price index, CPI, cross country comparisons
    Date: 2014–08
  27. By: Hashim, Khairul ; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: Most of previous researches have only focused on the effect of export expansion on economic growth while ignoring the potential of import in developing economic growth. This study makes an attempt to examine the relationship between trade and economic growth in Malaysia with emphasis on both the role of exports and imports. This study treats exports and imports separately to allow for the possibility that their influence toward economic growth is asymmetric and adopts recent advances in time series modeling. This study used Granger causality test and impulse response functions to examine whether growth in trade stimulates economic growth. It is important to examine the linkage between trade and economic growth for Malaysia in order to provide evidence whether rapid economic growth in the region is driven by trade or whether there is reciprocal impact between growth and trade. The results tend to suggest that the singular focus of past studies on exports as engine of growth may be misleading. The results confirm the bidirectional long run relationships between the economic growth and exports, economic growth and imports and exports and imports. From a policy point of view, investigating the causal links between trade and economic growth generates important implications for the development strategies of developing countries. If exports drive economic growth, policy should promote exports, and likewise for imports.
    Keywords: economic growth, exports, imports, time series techniques
    JEL: C22 C58 F1
    Date: 2014–08–14
  28. By: Mina, Christian D. ; Reyes, Celia M. ; Gloria, Reneli Ann B.
    Abstract: Under the Aquino administration, premium subsidies on agricultural insurance have significantly increased, mostly due to the special programs being implemented by the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation (PCIC). This paper attempts to describe the various fully subsidized agricultural insurance programs of the PCIC, the rationale of each, the beneficiary selection procedures that they undertake, and highlight the implementation issues and concerns that might have policy and welfare implications crucial to their success. The paper finds that the lack of predictability or continuity in implementing these programs, coupled with difficulties in interagency coordination, has posed operational challenges in implementing these. There is also a need for an overarching policy to guide the administration of government subsidies in agricultural insurance, as well as guidelines on prioritization of beneficiaries, to help PCIC offer continued services to the identified beneficiaries and determine who to prioritize.
    Keywords: Philippines, agricultural credit, agricultural insurance, Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation, government premium subsidy, DAR ARB-AIP, Registry System for Basic Sectors in Agriculture (RSBSA), DA-Sikat Saka, WARA, NIA Third Cropping Rice Program
    Date: 2015
  29. By: Mobin, Mohammad Ashraful ; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: This paper makes an attempt to investigate the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on the level of deposits in the Islamic banking system. Malaysia is used as a case study. We apply ‘Auto – Regressive Distributive Lag’ model which has taken care of a major limitation of the conventional cointegrating tests in that they suffer from pre-test biases. Based on above rigorous methodology, we try to measure both long- and short-run relationships among these variables. By applying ARDL techniques, we find that the determinants such as, Inflation has strong impact on deposits of Islamic banking system while other macroeconomic variables GDP and Kuala Lumpur composite Index do not have significant impact. Most of the theories related to savings behaviour are not applicable to Islamic banking customers. Therefore, there is a possibility that religious belief might play an important role in the banking decisions of Muslim customers. The most relevant finding from the policy perspective is the significant negative effect of inflation on the Islamic banks’ saving deposits. Controlling inflation and thereby providing macroeconomic stability is essential for promoting Islamic banking.
    Keywords: Malaysia, Islamic Banking, Depositors' behaviour, ARDL cointegration
    JEL: C22 C58 E44 G21
    Date: 2014–08–10
  30. By: Hayakawa, Kazunobu ; Kim, HanSung ; Yoshimi, Taiyo
    Abstract: This paper investigates how exchange rates affect the utilization of a free trade agreement (FTA) scheme in trading. Changes in exchange rates affect FTA utilization by two ways. The first way is by changing the excess profits gained by utilizing the FTA scheme, and the second way is by promoting the compliance of rules of origin. Our theoretical models predict that the depreciation of exporters' currency against that of importers enhances the likelihood of FTA utilization through those two channels. Furthermore, our empirical analysis, which is based on rich tariff-line-level data on the utilization of FTA schemes in Korea's imports from ASEAN countries, supports the theoretical prediction. We also show that the effects are smaller for more differentiated products.
    Keywords: Asia, Southeast Asia, South Korea, International trade, Foreign exchange, International economic integration, Free trade agreement, Exchange rates, Exchange rate pass-through, Rules of origin
    JEL: F13 F15 F31 F36
    Date: 2015–02
  31. By: Fauziah ZEN (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) ); Mukul G. ASHER (Professorial Fellow, National University of Singapore, Councillor, Takahashila Institution )
    Abstract: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is engaged in framing a post- 2015 vision for social protection in ASEAN which would facilitate productive ageing. This paper assesses existing social protection systems in ASEAN and suggests initiatives which policymakers and other stakeholders could consider for progressing towards a more robust social protection system. The paper argues that progressing towards the post-2015 vision of social protection will require greater coordination between ASEAN’s economic and social sector groups, as weak social protection systems existing today will increasingly constrain future economic growth. ASEAN as a group will also need to lessen its reliance on outside donors for funding and expertise. The specific initiatives suggested for facilitating productive ageing in ASEAN are (i) creating an ASEAN social protection forum for developing more robust databases, encouraging communication and indigenous research, and rendering technical assistance to members; (ii) pursuing measures to reduce expenditure needs of the elderly, including well-designed discount systems for public amenities and basic needs; (iii) giving greater priority to cross-border worker agreements to improve their living conditions, and encourage totalization agreements; and (iv) enhancing professionalism and systemic perspectives
    Keywords: ASEAN, social protection, cross-border workers, pensions, severance payment, workers'compensation, labour market, demographic trends
    JEL: H55 J18 J21 E26
    Date: 2015–02
  32. By: Abdi, Zeinab ; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: This Malaysia is a developing Islamic state that faced government budget deficit since 1998. It is undeniable that a budget deficit or inability to cover government spending is not positively seen by external parties. The optimum level of government budget is the state where government spending is totally offset by government revenue and that can be achieved through an increase in tax revenue or decrease in spending. The paper aims to discover the existence of a theoretical relationship between government spending and the different types of government revenues namely direct and indirect taxes and non-tax revenues. Furthermore, the paper tries to find out which of the different government revenues leads government spending. As well as to discover each revenue structure relationship with government spending using sample data from Malaysia for the period of 1970-2013 and time series techniques. The paper found out that although majority of government revenue is from direct tax revenue, the government spending only varies due to a change in indirect government tax revenue and non-tax revenue. In addition, it discovered that there is a long run relationship between the variables and that direct tax and government spending are endogenous (follower) variables, while non-tax revenue and indirect tax are exogenous (leader) variables. The paper also discussed the necessity of tax reform in Malaysia, since inefficiency in direct tax revenue leads to a dependence on non-tax revenue and regressive indirect taxes.
    Keywords: Government revenue, government expenditure, time series techniques
    JEL: C22 C58 E6
    Date: 2014–08–11
  33. By: Llanto, Gilberto M. ; del Prado, Fatima
    Abstract: Private firms invest in physical capital and human resource but they are also advised to invest in innovations to be more productive and profitable. Innovations refer to the development, deployment, and economic utilization of new products, processes, and services. It is important for firms to know whether investment in innovations is investment well-spent. Our empirical results provided an affirmative response to the question raised in this paper: "Does innovation mediate good firm performance?" Product and process innovations lead to increase in sales and profits and improve labor productivity. The paper also showed that firm size, age, and foreign equity are important factors leading firms to innovate.
    Keywords: innovation, Philippines, process innovation, product innovation, firm performance, small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
    Date: 2015
  34. By: Nàtalia Valls (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona ); Helena Chulià (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona )
    Abstract: This paper examines volatility spillovers between the stock and currency markets of ten Asian economies in the period 2003 to 2014. To carry out this analysis, a multivariate asymmetric GARCH model is used. In general, our results present evidence of bidirectional volatility spillovers between both markets, independently of the individual country’s level of development. Additionally, our findings show that the global financial crisis has had mixed effects on the volatility transmission patterns. Overall, our results suggest that exchange rate policies and investment decisions should not be implemented without first taking into consideration the links between the stock and currency markets.
    Keywords: Volatility Spillovers, GARCH, International financial markets, Exchange rates JEL classification: C32, G01, G15
    Date: 2014–12
  35. By: Lerohim, Siti Nor FarahEffera ; Affandi, Salwani ; W. Mahmood, Wan Mansor
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine the influence of financial development consisting of financial depth, investment share and inflation on economic growth of ASEAN during 2002 through 2011. Using the fixed effect panel data OLS regression estimations, the study shows that share investment and inflation plays an important role in explaning real output. However, it is quite surprise to see that financial depth does not have any significant contribution toward real output. The findings is very important to policymaker for the ASEAN. They should aim at improving capital market environment and at the same time try reducing inflation rate to a level that can be sustainable for their future economic growth.
    Keywords: Economic growth, Financial depth, Investment share, Inflation, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
    JEL: G0 G1 G2
    Date: 2014–09–25
  36. By: Pierre-André Jouvet ; Julien Wolfersberger
    Abstract: We study sustainable growth in an economy with natural land endowments, specifically forests, and the need for public policies to quantify the financial value of green capital, measured by forests. Exhaustible primary forests are first depleted for agriculture and production, until a switch occurs to the renewable secondary forests. The introduction of REDD+ in the economy reduces agricultural expansion, since the social planner invests in green capital, at the expense of the physical one. We show that the optimal REDD+ national strategy highly depends on the development stage of the recipient economy. In the end, we prove our findings by calibrating our model to Indonesia and illustrate recommendations for public policies.
    Keywords: Deforestation, Development, Forest Transition, Green Capital, Growth
    Date: 2015
  37. By: Martin, Frederic ; Calkins, Peter H. ; Lariviere, Sylvain
    Keywords: International Development, Political Economy, Production Economics, Public Economics,
  38. By: Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C. ; Llanto, Gilberto M. ; Rosellon, Maureen Ane D. ; Ballesteros, Marife M. ; Magtibay, Jasmine E. ; Bolanos, Larraine ; Salazar, Christine
    Abstract: This study looks at the effectiveness of the strategy and the complementary interventions of the Sustainable Livelihood Program`s Self-Employment Assistance Kaunlaran (SLP SEA-K). The SLP SEA-K uses a microcredit strategy which intends to provide credit access to the poor, improve the ability of the group to borrow, and enable it to engage in income-generating activities. Microcredit services are generally believed to have a positive socioeconomic impact; however, the success of projects may depend largely on the management of the program. The authors of this study found out that the government lacks the capacity to handle microcredit programs. Additionally, they see the one-size-fits-all strategy of the program as a problem because of the diverse range of beneficiary profiles.
    Keywords: Philippines, microcredit, livelihood, microenterprise
    Date: 2015
  39. By: Angie Tan (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW) )
    Abstract: The penetration and effects of ICT varies amongst countries. For small countries like Singapore the effects of ICT is especially prominent. This paper focuses on how Singapore exploited the benefits of ICT by analyzing first the evolution of ICT policies and the important role of the government in its development. Followed by the question how ICT has impacted the country. Looking at the impact of ICT both in the ICT sector as well as the penetration of ICT in households. The conclusions refer to additional actions that the government should focus on to further exploit the benefits of ICT in Singapore.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Telecommunication, ICT, Regulation, Singapore
    JEL: L96 L98 N14 O31 O43
    Date: 2014–06
  40. By: Tanaka, Kiyoyasu ; Hashiguchi, Yoshihiro
    Abstract: The presence of a large informal sector in developing economies poses the question of whether informal activity produces agglomeration externalities. This paper uses data on all the nonfarm establishments and enterprises in Cambodia to estimate the impact of informal agglomeration on the regional economic performance of formal and informal firms. We develop a Bayesian approach for a spatial autoregressive model with an endogenous explanatory variable to address endogeneity and spatial dependence. We find a significantly positive effect of informal agglomeration, where informal firms gain more strongly than formal firms. Calculating the spatial marginal effects of increased agglomeration, we demonstrate that more accessible regions are more likely than less accessible regions to benefit strongly from informal agglomeration.
    Keywords: Cambodia, Informal sector, Economic conditions, Agglomeration, Bayesian
    JEL: C11 C21 H26 O17 R12 C26
    Date: 2015–02
  41. By: Hoang, Hoa ; Meyers, William
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–12
  42. By: Enrica Di Stefano (Bank of Italy ); Daniela Marconi (Bank of Italy )
    Abstract: We examine the growth performance of six emerging economies (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and Turkey) in the last two decades and examine whether domestic structural constraints are affecting their present and future growth potential. In order to assess better the determinants of the recent synchronized slowdown of these economies, we concentrate on the dynamics of labor productivity (value added per worker, a synthetic measure of capital deepening, labor quality and total factor productivity) and of employment. We find that the ongoing slowdown in EMEs is largely structural, but there is still ample room for catching up in terms of output composition, reallocation of labor across sectors and within-sector productivity improvements. The scope for further reform and reform priorities differs across countries. In the longer run other structural factors will weigh on potential growth, particularly the evolution of the size and quality of the labor force.
    Keywords: emerging markets, growth, potential growth, productivity
    JEL: E32 O47 O57
    Date: 2015–01
  43. By: De Paula, Áureo ; Hong, Harrison G ; Singh, Vishal
    Abstract: Hoarding by large speculators is often blamed for contributing to commodity market panics and bubbles. Using supermarket scanner data on US household purchases during the 2008 Rice Bubble, we show that hoarding is in fact more systemic, affecting even households who have no resale motive. Export bans led to a spike in prices worldwide in the first half of 2008, which spilled over into US markets. Anticipating shortages, US households with previous purchases of rice, especially those of Asian ethnicity, nearly doubled their buying around the peak of the bubble. We document transmission mechanisms through over-extrapolation from high prices and contagion, as many households bought rice for the first and last time during the bubble.
    Keywords: Commodity Bubbles; Commodity Pricing; Hoarding; Rice
    JEL: G00 Q11
    Date: 2015–02
  44. By: Rahman, Sharezan ; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: The increase in household debts in Malaysia which has escalated to about 86% of total GDP is deemed to be at worrying stage as it may in turn trigger another financial crisis. Thus, the aim of this study is to examine the increase in household debts and its relation to GDP, interest rate and house price via time series techniques. Data collected from Datastream and monthly statistical bulletin span from 1999 to 2014 on quarterly basis. The results show that there is a cointegrating long run relation between household debt, house prices, GDP and interest rate. The analysis indicates that although household debts could not be influenced by the changes in GDP, lending rate and house price in the short run, it could be affected by house price movement in the long run. As there is a positive significant relationship between house price and household debts, it implies that, in the long run horizon, the increase in household debts is due to the increase in house price. Although both GDP and lending rate are found to be endogenous, we still believe that the movement in lending rate and GDP (as a proxy to income) may affect the household debts. Thus, extra care shall be taken by the policy maker for any decision to increase the lending rate in particular as the lending rate is deemed to be one of the macroeconomic policy instruments which may have significant influence on household income. As the lending rate is deemed endogenous, the policy maker should strengthen prudential measure in order to curb the increase in household debts. Shortening the loan tenure, tightening credit policy by implementing responsible and selective lending, higher debt service ratio, strengthening the risk management of banking institutions are amongst the measures that might facilitate the policy maker to combat the rising household debts. Additionally, as the result found that the house price is the main indicator that affects the household debt in the long horizon, the policy maker should take an initiative to control the property price in order to mitigate any bubble in asset price.
    Keywords: Household debts, GDP, interest rates, house prices, time series techniques
    JEL: C22 C58 E44
    Date: 2014–08–12
  45. By: Ali Raza Cheema (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad ); Attiya Yasmin Javid (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad )
    Abstract: This study evaluates the link between disaggregate energy consumption (coal, petroleum, electricity, renewable energy consumption), economic growth and environment for Asian Developing countries. Cointegration tests verify long run relationship among energy consumption and growth, energy consumption and environment degradation along with trade openness and financial development as control variables. To find long run elasticities fully modified OLS is used, which confirms that all forms of disaggregate energy consumption explain positive and significant impact on economic growth. Results also show that all forms of disaggregate energy use more pollute environment (except coal consumption) and also validate the existence of Environmental Kuznets curve. Important policy implication is that government needs to promote renewable energy sector because its increase economic growth and its impact on environment degradation is low as compare to other sources. Investment in renewable energy sector is beneficial for private and public sector after conducting cost and benefit analysis.
    Keywords: Disaggregate Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions, Environmental Kuznets Curve
    Date: 2015
  46. By: Chellaraj, Gnanaraj ; Mattoo, Aaditya
    Abstract: Singapore has been a powerful magnet for foreign direct investment and in recent years has also made significant investments abroad, especially in developing countries and increasingly in services. This paper analyzes the determinants of Singapore's investment using the Knowledge-Capital Model and compares the impact of skill endowments on manufacturing and service sector investments. The results suggest that inward and outward investment with respect to industrialized countries in manufacturing and services was skill-seeking. A 10 percent decline in skill differences with industrialized countries resulted in a 19 percent rise in inbound manufacturing investment stocks, but only a 7 percent rise in inbound services stocks. Inward investment from developing countries in services was also skill-seeking, but outward investment to developing countries in both sectors was labor-seeking. A 10 percent increase in skill differences with developing countries resulted in a 23 percent rise in outbound manufacturing investment stocks and a 13 percent rise in outbound services stocks. Furthermore, when the analysis distinguishes between services on the basis of skill intensity, there is a significant difference between the determinants of foreign direct investment in skill-intensive services and foreign direct investment in other services and goods. However, when services are disaggregated on the basis of"proximity"needs, there is no significant difference in the determinants of foreign direct investment in proximity services compared with foreign direct investment in non-proximity services.
    Keywords: Debt Markets,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Investment and Investment Climate,Emerging Markets
    Date: 2015–01–01
  47. By: Mohamad, Sharifah Fairuz Syed ; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: The trading between currencies in Islam when both parties’ responsibilities are postponed to the future has been regarded as non-halal or un-islamic. Since there are many controversies in the area of currency, there have been suggestions to enhance investments in gold to avoid the element of ‘syubhah’ or doubts since gold has been used in the past for many functions. Investment in gold has been in demand for the past few years especially in hedging strategies. In this paper, we study the relationships between selected currencies in terms gold prices and their movements in volatility and correlation using the MGARCH-DCC analysis. Findings of the study tend to indicate the opportunities of various diversification portfolios for the interested gold investors. The findings of the study are of benefit to gold investors especially for diversification and investment purposes.
    Keywords: MGARCH-DCC, gold, Euro, Pound, US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Malaysian Ringgit, Canadian Dollar
    JEL: C22 C58 G15
    Date: 2013–08–14
  48. By: Alain Chateauneuf (IPAG Business School et Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics ); Mina Mostoufi (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics ); David Vyncke (Universiteit Gent )
    Abstract: Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is a technique that provides approximate solutions to a broad range of mathematical problems. A drawback of the method is its high computational cost, especially in a high-dimensional setting. Estimating the Tail Value-at-Risk for large portfolios or pricing basket options and Asian options for instance can be quite time-consuming. For these types of problems, one can construct an upper bound in the convex order by replacing the copula by the comonotonic copula. This comonotonic upper bound can be computed very quickly, but it gives only a rough approximation. In this paper we introduce the Comonotonic Monte Carlo (CoMC) simulation, which uses the best features of both approaches. By using the comonotonic approximation as a control variate we get more accurate estimates and hence the simulation is less time-consuming. The CoMC is of broad applicability and numerical results show a remarkable speed improvement. We illustrate the method for estimating Tail Value-at-Risk and pricing basket options and Asian options.
    Keywords: Control Variate Monte Carlo, Comonotonicity, Option pricing.
    JEL: G17 C02 C13 C15 C63
    Date: 2015–02
  49. By: Su Liangjun (Singapore Management University ); Tadao Hoshino (Waseda University )
    Abstract: In this paper, we consider sieve instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) estimation of functional coefficient models where the coefficients of endogenous regressors are unknown functions of some exogenous covariates. We approximate the unknown functional coefficients by some basis functions and estimate them by the IVQR technique. We establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators of the functional coefficients. Based on the sieve estimates, we propose a nonparametric specification test for the constancy of the functional coefficients, study its asymptotic properties under the null hypothesis, a sequence of local alternatives and global alternatives, and propose a wild-bootstrap procedure to obtain the bootstrap p-values. A set of Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite sample behavior of both the estimator and test statistic. As an empirical illustration of our theoretical results, we present the estimation of quantile Engel curves.
    Keywords: Endogeneity; Functional coefficient; Heterogeneity; Instrumental variable; Panel data; Sieve estimation; Specification test; Structural quantile function
    JEL: C12 C13 C14 C21 C23 C26
    Date: 2015–02
  50. By: Dani Rodrik
    Abstract: I document a significant deindustrialization trend in recent decades, that goes considerably beyond the advanced, post-industrial economies. The hump-shaped relationship between industrialization (measured by employment or output shares) and incomes has shifted downwards and moved closer to the origin. This means countries are running out of industrialization opportunities sooner and at much lower levels of income compared to the experience of early industrializers. Asian countries and manufactures exporters have been largely insulated from those trends, while Latin American countries have been especially hard hit. Advanced economies have lost considerable employment (especially of the low-skill type), but they have done surprisingly well in terms of manufacturing output shares at constant prices. While these trends are not very recent, the evidence suggests both globalization and labor-saving technological progress in manufacturing have been behind these developments. Premature deindustrialization has potentially significant economic and political ramifications, including lower economic growth and democratic failure.
    JEL: O14
    Date: 2015–02
  51. By: Rodrik, Dani
    Abstract: I document a significant deindustrialization trend in recent decades, that goes considerably beyond the advanced, post-industrial economies. The hump-shaped relationship between industrialization (measured by employment or output shares) and incomes has shifted downwards and moved closer to the origin. This means countries are running out of industrialization opportunities sooner and at much lower levels of income compared to the experience of early industrializers. Asian countries and manufactures exporters have been largely insulated from those trends, while Latin American countries have been especially hard hit. Advanced economies have lost considerable employment (especially of the low-skill type), but they have done surprisingly well in terms of manufacturing output shares at constant prices. While these trends are not very recent, the evidence suggests both globalization and labor-saving technological progress in manufacturing have been behind these developments. Premature deindustrialization has potentially significant economic and political ramifications, including lower economic growth and democratic failure.
    Keywords: Deindustrialization; industrialization
    JEL: O14
    Date: 2015–02
  52. By: Cernat, Lucian (Asian Development Bank Institute )
    Abstract: This paper makes the case for the need to "upgrade" current analytical tools used for trade policy analysis and complement them with more detailed firm-level data. Such an upgrade should be based on the latest intellectual advancements in trade theories and the latest firm-level trade statistics that are now becoming widely available. An upgraded "Trade Policy Analysis 2.0" could contribute to several trade policy priorities and to a better understanding of the benefits from international trade for firm competitiveness, job creation, and consumer welfare.
    Keywords: future of trade policy; firm competitiveness; job creation
    JEL: F13 F16 F17
    Date: 2015–02–23
  53. By: Qu FENG (Division of Economics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 14 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637332 ); Guiying Laura WU (Division of Economics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 14 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637332 )
    Abstract: Rapid house price growth and high price-to-income ratio in major Chinese cities have aroused a hot debate on whether there is an asset bubble in China's residential housing market. To investigate this question, we employ an equilibrium asset-pricing approach, which suggests an non-arbitrage condition on the rent-to-price ratio. This ratio should be equal to the difference between the user cost of housing capital and the expected appreciation in house prices. Using a novel micro-level data set on pair-wise matched price-to-rent ratio collected in the fourth quarter of 2013, and forecasting the expected house price appreciation based on fundamental factors, our empirical exercises do not suggest the existence of a house price bubble at the national level. However, this conclusion highly depends on the expected income growth rate and may not apply to individual markets.
    Keywords: House Prices, Asset Pricing Approach, Rent-to-Price Ratio
    JEL: R21 G12
    Date: 2015–02
  54. By: Junaid Alam Memon (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad ); Gopal B. Thapa (Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand )
    Abstract: Public property common pool resources in many developing countries are often portrayed in dismal states allegedly due to governments’ inability to manage them in a sustainable manner. While this explanation may have some merit, it is certainly inadequate. Instead, we argue that public property commons degrade partially because governments, in their attempt to obtain an overall societal balance, sometime accord low priority to some resources and bestow their ownership to an apparently unconcerned agency. While this tendency is deliberate, it results for a de jure public property commons to exhibit a de facto open-access status. Based on policy and institutional analyses of mangrove management in Pakistan, we bring such a case for theoretical debate on the issue and favour partial right regimes as a relatively better way of defining rights regimes for complex resources such as forests and wetlands including mangroves.
    Keywords: Public Property Commons, Mangroves, Indus Delta, Policy Analysis, Institutional Analysis
    Date: 2015
  55. By: Norhana Endut (Bank Negara Malaysia ); James Morley (School of Economics, Australian School of Business, the University of New South Wales ); Pao-Lin Tien (Wesleyan University )
    Abstract: We examine the relative importance of the interest rate, exchange rate, and banklending channels for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the United States over the past 50 years. Our analysis is based on a structural vector autoregressive model that includes bank loans and uses sign restrictions to identify monetary policy shocks. Given these identified policy shocks, we quantify the relative importance of different transmission channels via counterfactual analysis. Our results suggest a nontrivial role for the bank-lending channel at the aggregate level, but its importance has been greatly diminished since the early 1980s. Despite the timing, we find no support for a link between this change in the transmission mechanism and the concurrent reduction in output volatility associated with the Great Moderation. There is, however, some evidence of a link to the reduction in inflation volatility occurring at the same time.
    Keywords: Bank-Lending Channel, Sign Restrictions, Great Moderation
    JEL: C32 E52
    Date: 2015–01
  56. By: Feng, Andy (Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry ); Graetz, Georg (Uppsala University )
    Abstract: How do firms respond to technological advances that facilitate the automation of tasks? Which tasks will they automate, and what types of worker will be replaced as a result? We present a model that distinguishes between a task's engineering complexity and its training requirements. When two tasks are equally complex, firms will automate the task that requires more training and in which labor is hence more expensive. Under quite general conditions this leads to job polarization, a decline in middle wage jobs relative to both high and low wage jobs. Our theory explains recent and historical instances of job polarization as caused by labor-replacing technologies, such as computers, the electric motor, and the steam engine, respectively. The model makes novel predictions regarding occupational training requirements, which we find to be consistent with US data.
    Keywords: automation, job polarization, technical change, wage inequality, training
    JEL: E25 J23 J31 M53 O33
    Date: 2015–02

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