nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2015‒01‒14
35 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Special Border Economic Zone (SBEZ) in the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT) By Lord, Montague J.; Tangtrongjita, Pawat
  2. The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in ASEAN Countries: Analysis Using a VAR with Block Exogeneity By Vu, Tuan Khai; Nakata, Hayato
  3. Myanmar: The Key Link between South Asia and Southeast Asia By Florento, Hector; Corpuz, Maria Isabela
  4. Asia Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SME) Finance Monitor 2013 By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  5. A Unified Framework for the Estimation of Intra and Inter Country Food Purchasing Power Parities with Application to Cross Country Comparisons of Food Expenditure: India, Indonesia and Vietnam By Amita Majumder; Ranjan Ray; Kompal Sinha
  6. Sino-American Rivalry In The Context Of Asia-Pacific Economic Regionalism By Dmitry P. Novikov; Anastasia S. Pyatachkova
  7. Improving Educational Quality through Enhancing Community Participation: Results from a Randomized Field Experiment in Indonesia By Menno Pradhan; Daniel Suryadarma; Amanda Beatty; Maisy Wong; Arya Gaduh; Armida Alisjahbana; Rima Prama Artha
  8. MCC Indonesia Nutrition Project Impact Evaluation Design By Amanda Beatty; Evan Borkum; Anu Rangarajan; Anna Gage; Clair Null; Sukhmani Sethi
  9. The origin of stock market volatility --- the case of Indonesia and Turkey By Harald Schmidbauer; Narod Erkol
  10. Protecting Child Nutritional Status in the Aftermath of a Financial Crisis: Evidence from Indonesia By Giles, John T.; Satriawan, Elan
  11. What determines household income of ethnic minorities in North-West Mountains, Vietnam: A microeconometric analysis of household surveys By Tran, Quang Tuyen
  12. How Close is Asia to an Optimal Currency Area in Terms of Business Cycle Co-Movement? By Alicia Garcia-Herrero
  13. Segmentation and informality in Vietnam: A Survey of Literature By Jean-Pierre Cling; Mireille Razafindrakoto; François Roubaud
  14. Short and Long Run Effects of Earthquakes on Farm Businesses in Indonesia By Gignoux, Jérémie; Menéndez, Marta
  15. Searching for an Ideal International Investment Protection Regime for ASEAN+Dialogue Partners (RCEP): Where Do We Begin? By Junianto James LOSARI
  16. Trading Costs in East Asia’s Global Value Chains By Lord, Montague J.
  17. The ASEAN Way and Regional Security Cooperation in the South China Sea By Pek Koon Heng
  18. The Virtual Water Of Siberia And The Russian Far East For The Asia-Pacific Region: Global Gains Vs Regional Sustainability By Anastasia B. Likhacheva; Igor A. Makarov
  19. Unilateral Facilitation Does Not Raise International Labor Migration from the Philippines By Emily Beam; David McKenzie; Dean Yang
  20. Revising Vietnam's State Budget Law (2002) : Proposals Drawing on International Experience By World Bank
  21. Rice in the Shadow of Skyscrapers : Policy Choices in a Dynamic East and Southeast Asian Setting By David Dawe; Steven Jaffee; Nuno Santos
  22. Diverse we stand: Horizontal inequality and ethno-communal conflict in Indonesia By Kleine Deters B.; Nimeh Z.
  23. Seaborne Trade between South Asia and Southeast Asia By Wignall, David; Wignall, Mark
  24. Household entrepreneurship and social networks:panel data evidence from Vietnam By Huu Chi Nguyen; Christophe Nordman
  25. Trading Costs in East Asia’s Global Value Chains By Lord, Montague J.; Clarke, Julian; Record, Richard; Artuso, Fabio
  26. Lao PDR Market Access Guide: Trading with ASEAN Dialogue Partners - Australia and New By Lord, Montague J.
  27. A cautionary tale about control variables in IV estimation By Deuchert, Eva; Huber, Martin
  28. A cautionary tale about control variables in IV estimation By Deuchert, Eva; Huber, Martin
  29. Cambodia Trade Corridor Performance Assessment By World Bank Group
  30. Tommy Koh and the U.S.-Singapore Free Trade Agreement: A Multi-Front “Negotiation Campaign” By Laurence A. Green; James K Sebenius
  31. The height production function from birth to maturity By Elisabetta De Cao
  32. The Eco-Industry and Trade Agreements By Solveig Delabroye
  33. Early Health Shocks, Intrahousehold Resource Allocation, and Child Outcomes By Yi, Junjian; Heckman, James J.; Zhang, Junsen; Conti, Gabriella
  34. Uniformity and games decomposition. By Joseph Abdou; Nikolaos Pnevmatikos; Marco Scarsini
  35. Choix d’orientation et origine sociale : mesurer et comprendre l’autocensure scolaire By Elise Huillery; Nina Guyon

  1. By: Lord, Montague J.; Tangtrongjita, Pawat
    Abstract: This study provides a review and analysis of the findings from the scoping study on the proposed Malaysian–Thailand Special Border Economic Zone (SBEZ). The study is part of a broader project that intends to support the establishment of an SBEZ that will help to attract investors in productive activities that promote subregional value chains in order to stimulate cross-border trade and investment, serve as a catalyst to commerce along the IMT-GT corridors and help to substantially improve the social and economic welfare of the population along the border provinces. Each border crossing has been assessed on the basis of the following components, details of which are presented in the main body of this report: (a) special economic zone (SEZ) potential; (b) cross-border value chains; (c) transport and logistics; (d) socio-economic development strategy for the area; (e) SME development and business development services: (f) linkages to Indonesia. The proposed SBEZ is best viewed as incremental levels of collaborative of Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. Level 1 would cover the establishment of SBEZ facilities and supporting activities on either or both sides of the border; Level 2 would involve development of cross-border value chains and hard and soft infrastructure supporting the SBEZ; and Level 3 would consist of collaboration in joint SBEZ facilities and supporting activities. This stepwise approach reflects international best practices for the development of cross-border SEZs in Europe, North America and Asia. It ensures that actions on either side of the border move from an informal to formal mechanisms of collaboration, thereby providing an effective mechanisms for achieving long-term goals for the operation of a joint SBEZ.
    Keywords: special border economic zones, SBEZ, border economic zones, BEZ, border development, Thailand, Malaysia, industrial zones, value chains, SMEs, cross-border investment, border trade, business development services, BDS, cross-border value chains, cross-border supply chains, border development programs, poverty alleviation,
    JEL: F21 L6 O1
    Date: 2014–05–15
  2. By: Vu, Tuan Khai; Nakata, Hayato
    Abstract: We use a VAR with block exogeneity to study the effects of oil price fluctuations on the economies of six ASEAN countries. Our method has an advantage over those used in the literature in that it allows us to focus on the effects of oil shocks while avoiding making unnecessary, and often ad hoc and unrealistic, assumptions about the structure of the economies under question. We decompose the factors that drive oil prices into oil supply shocks, oil demand shocks coming from the global real economic activity and oil-market specific demand shocks. We find that, in terms of output and price variabilities, the oil importing countries such as Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines are more sensitive to the situation in the world oil market than the oil exporting countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia. We find evidence that the monetary authorities of ASEAN countries have responded to changes in oil prices due to oil-market specific demand shocks. We also find that much of the surge in world market oil prices in 2007-2008 was mainly due to global aggregate demand shocks and oil-market specific shocks, and by working through oil prices these shocks were important factors that caused the high inflation in ASEAN countries in the first half of 2008.
    Keywords: oil price fluctuations, VAR, block exogeneity, ASEAN economies
    JEL: F41 Q43 F33
    Date: 2014–12
  3. By: Florento, Hector (Asian Development Bank Institute); Corpuz, Maria Isabela (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper examines the road and railway links in Myanmar connecting northeast India on the one side with the rest of Southeast Asia on the other. It also discusses the importance of new deep-sea ports in creating alternative shipping routes, essential for Myanmar's international links. It also reviews the country's external trade patterns, and analyzes issues related to trade facilitation, exchange rate policy, financial sector reform, and private sector development. The extent to which these gaps can be addressed will depend on the costs and benefits. South Asia–Southeast Asia connectivity can only be accomplished if Myanmar improves the hard and soft infrastructure aspects of connectivity.
    Keywords: myanmars trade; trade facilitation; cross-border infrastructure; road networks; gms economic corridors; railway networks; ports; Governance; Myanmar; South Asia; Southeast Asia; Asia
    JEL: F15 H50 L90
    Date: 2014–12–16
  4. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Office of Regional Economic Integration, ADB); ;
    Abstract: The Asia SME Finance Monitor 2013 is the knowledge sharing product on SMEs in Asia and the Pacific, specially focusing on SME access to finance. The Monitor reviews various country aspects of SME finance covering the banking sector, nonbank sector, and capital markets. It is expected to support evidence-based policy making and regulations on SME finance in the region.
    Keywords: SME finance, Small and medium-sized enterprises, supply chain finance, venture capital, financial inclusion, SME sector development, SME access to finance, SME lending, inclusive growth
    Date: 2014–04
  5. By: Amita Majumder; Ranjan Ray; Kompal Sinha
    Abstract: This paper proposes a preference based methodology, analogous to the estimation of equivalence scales in the demographic demand literature, for the estimation of the item specific intra country PPPs (i.e. spatial prices) and inter country PPPs in a unified framework using unit records of household food expenditures from three Asian countries: India, Indonesia and Vietnam, covering contemporaneous time periods. The study addresses a key limitation of the ICP exercise, namely, treating all countries, large and small, as homogeneous entities. Moreover, it (i) directly calculates bilateral PPPs between countries based on their expenditure patterns and prices alone and (ii) directly estimates the Price Level Indices (PLI) and their standard errors allowing formal tests of the hypothesis of PLI being unity. The usefulness of the estimated PPPs is illustrated by applying them to comparisons of real food expenditures between the three countries, and benchmarking the comparisons with those using the ICP PPPs.
    Keywords: Item specific PPP, Spatial Prices, QAIDS, Inequality adjusted Expenditures.
    JEL: C12 D12 E31 O53 O57
    Date: 2014–09
  6. By: Dmitry P. Novikov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anastasia S. Pyatachkova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The rise of Asian regionalism and Sino-American rivalry are determining trends in the Asia-Pacific region. Asian economic indicators remain stable and growing even during the severe global crisis of 2008 and have become more and more comparable to those of developed countries. The current trend creates a basis for Asian states to concentrate on domestic needs for development rather than export orientation, which leads to a new model of cooperation in the region. China’s growing assertiveness in international affairs and the US ‘Pivot to Asia’ have triggered confrontation and tensions which have negative effects on economic cooperation boosted by Asian regionalism and influence its institutional framework. Sino-American rivalry is also provoking a power shift which is reshaping the relations between all the regional actors. This article analyses Asian regionalism and Sino-American rivalry as two objective processes in the Asia-Pacific region and shows their effects on regional development using the examples of TTP and RCEP initiatives.
    Keywords: Asian regionalism, Sino-American rivalry, institutions, integration initiatives in Asia-Pacific
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Menno Pradhan; Daniel Suryadarma; Amanda Beatty; Maisy Wong; Arya Gaduh; Armida Alisjahbana; Rima Prama Artha
    Abstract: This study evaluates the effect of four randomized interventions aimed at strengthening school committees, and subsequently improving learning outcomes, in public primary schools in Indonesia.
    Keywords: Educational Quality, Indonesia, Randomized Field Experiment
    JEL: F Z
    Date: 2013–10–01
  8. By: Amanda Beatty; Evan Borkum; Anu Rangarajan; Anna Gage; Clair Null; Sukhmani Sethi
    Abstract: This report describes the evaluation design for the Community-Based Health and Nutrition to Reduce Stunting Project, or Nutrition Project, under the Millennium Challenge Corporation Indonesia Compact. The report includes a review of the current literature, project description, program logic, evaluation design, and plans for data collection.
    Keywords: Millennium Challenge Corporation, Indonesia, health, nutrition, stunting, maternal and child health, community driven development
    JEL: F Z
    Date: 2014–09–12
  9. By: Harald Schmidbauer; Narod Erkol
    Abstract: One of the advantages to analyze the economic links between two countries on the basis of stock market data, rather than aggregate economic data published by national statistical offices, is that stock market data are readily available, allowing analysis in almost real time. We consider a directed network with equity markets as nodes and return-to-volatility spillovers, obtained via forecast error variance decomposition (fevd), indicating the weights of the edges. In the course of globalization, it can be generally observed that the share of volatility originating from outside a local stock market has been gradually decreasing. This is also the case for Indonesia and Turkey. We show that the link of Indonesia to Turkey has recently become more important, that is, spillovers from the Indonesian to the Turkish stock market have increased, but not in the opposite direction. Using notions related to network centrality and information entropy, we also identify political and economic events having a big impact on the distribution of stock market volatility in Indonesia and Turkey.
    Keywords: Indonesia, Turkey (and other stock markets), Finance, Developing countries
    Date: 2014–07–03
  10. By: Giles, John T. (World Bank); Satriawan, Elan (Universitas Gadjah Mada)
    Abstract: In response to concerns over the vulnerability of the young in the wake of Indonesia's 1997-1998 economic crises, the Government of Indonesia implemented a supplementary feeding program to support early childhood nutritional status. This paper exploits heterogeneity in duration of program exposure to evaluate the impact of the program on children aged 6 to 60 months. By examining differences in nutritional status of treated younger children and a placebo group of older children, the analysis finds that the program improved the nutritional status of treated children, and most significantly, led to 7 and 15 percent declines in rates of moderate and severe stunting, respectively, for children aged 12 to 24 months who were exposed to the program for at least 12 months over two years.
    Keywords: nutritional interventions, program evaluation, poverty, financial crises, Indonesia
    JEL: I12 I18 O15 O20 O22
    Date: 2014–12
  11. By: Tran, Quang Tuyen
    Abstract: This paper investigates socio-economic factors affecting household income among ethnic minorities in North-West Mountains – the poorest region of Vietnam. The findings revealed that the vast majority of the sample households heavily depended on agricultural activities, with very limitted access to nonfarm employment. Factors affecting household income were analyzed using multiple regression models and the results confirm the crucial role of education, non-farm employment and fixed assets in improving household income. Also, some community characteristics such as the presence of means of transportation, post offices and nonfarm job opportunities were found to have a significantly positive impact on household income. The findings imply that policies for poverty reduction should aim at both commune and household levels in the study area.
    Keywords: Ethnic minorities, nonfarm participation, household income, North-West Mountains.
    JEL: O12 Q12
    Date: 2014–12–15
  12. By: Alicia Garcia-Herrero (Chief Economist, Emerging Markets at BBVA and Visiting Professor at CEBIS (E-mail:
    Abstract: The paper assesses how close Asian countries are to an Optimal Currency Area in terms of business cycle synchronization, with a focus on supply shock asymmetry. Based on a Structural VAR model, the importance of symmetric and asymmetric supply shocks is teasted for all ASEAN+3 countries. In addition, a spatial approach is used to analyze its impact on the whole Asian region and on pairs of Asian countries. The conclusion is that there is evidence of increasing symmetry of supply shocks although the situation differs largely on a country by country basis. Such finding would support a multi-speed process of monetary integration in the region.
    Keywords: Business cycle synchronization, Optimal Currency Area, Asian economic integration, Structural Vector Auto Regression, ASEAN+3
    JEL: E32 F40 F44
    Date: 2014–12
  13. By: Jean-Pierre Cling (CEPN, Université Paris Nord-CNRS, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, IRD UMR DIAL); Mireille Razafindrakoto (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine); François Roubaud (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: (english) Labour market segmentation is usually defined as the division of the labour markets into separate submarkets or segments, distinguished by different characteristics and behavioural rules (incomes, contracts, etc.). The economic debate on the segmentation issue has been focusing in developed countries, and especially in Europe, on contractual segmentation and dualism. However, in developing countries such as Vietnam which is the focus of this study, wage work is marginal and the approach to labour market segmentation is necessarily slightly different. Indeed, most workers are engaged in the informal economy and many of them are self-employed in their own household business. Starting with an analysis of the main characteristics of the national labour market, this paper presents a survey of the literature on informality and labour market segmentation in Vietnam (section 2). Section 3 describes the institutional background related to firm registration and social protection in Vietnam, and analyses the reasons for informality in relationship with the institutional framework. Section 4 describes the reforms being put in place and employment strategies related to the informal economy. Policy recommendations are proposed in the last section. _________________________________ (français) La segmentation sur le marché du travail est usuellement définie comme la coexistence de deux segments ou secteurs qui se distinguent par leurs caractéristiques et les comportements qui y prévalent (niveau de revenus, contrats, etc.). Le débat économique sur la segmentation s’est focalisé dans les pays développés, et en particulier en Europe, sur le dualisme résultant des contrats. Cependant, dans les pays en développement comme le Vietnam, les emplois salariés étant marginaux, la segmentation sur le marché du travail doit nécessairement être appréhendée de manière différente. La majorité des emplois relève de l’économie informelle et une grande partie est constituée d’auto-emploi dans des entreprises individuelles. Partant d’une analyse des principales caractéristiques du marché du travail national, ce document présente ensuite une revue de la littérature sur l’informalité et la segmentation sur le marché du travail au Vietnam (section 2). La section 3 décrit le cadre institutionnel en matière d’enregistrement et de protection sociale au Vietnam, et analyse les raisons de l’informalité. La section 4 examine les réformes qui ont été mises en place et les stratégies en termes d’emploi touchant l’économie informelle. Enfin, des recommandations politiques sont proposées dans la dernière section.
    Keywords: Informality, Labour market, segmentation, Vietnam, Informel, marché du travail.
    JEL: J24 J31 O53 O17
    Date: 2014–11
  14. By: Gignoux, Jérémie; Menéndez, Marta
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of earthquakes on farm business assets in rural Indonesia. Using a panel fixed effects model, we evaluate if the negative consequences of earthquakes extend beyond the immediate event into the medium and long-term. Our results suggest that rural households were able to recover in the medium -run, and even exhibit welfare gains in the long-run. Productive assets in farm businesses were on average reconstituted and even increased in the medium-run. Thus, reconstruction strategies after large earthquakes seem to provide incentives to small farm business holders to reconstitute and increase their investments.
    Keywords: Natural disasters; long-term effects; recovery; farm businesses;
    JEL: I30 L26 O10 Q54
    Date: 2014–08
  15. By: Junianto James LOSARI (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: The members of the Association of the Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) and its six dialogue partners--Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand--decided in November 2012 to launch the negotiation of a free trade agreement (FTA) among them, also known as the regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP). The scope of the agreement includes investment despite the fact that the negotiating states already have various international investment agreements (IIAs) with each other. This article analyzes how RCEP can better improve and add more value to the current regime of international investment protection within the region by suggesting standards that should be considered by negotiators.
    Keywords: Investment, ASEAN, RCEP, ASEAN Free Trade Agreement
    Date: 2014–12
  16. By: Lord, Montague J.
    Abstract: The WTO’s new Agreement on Trade Facilitation (ATF) will help to reverse the region’s deceleration of overall export growth and, when implemented, could add as much as 3 percent to regional GDP and lift employment across the region by 1.2 percent. In the region’s developing economies, inefficient border and behind-the-border procedures are well above those of the NIEs and far exceed those of the developed economies. Persistent and often growing protectionism has broadly continued as countries have added further measures to their stock of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs), which now account for as much as 90% of trade costs other than transportation. As such, it defines a new reform agenda for the East Asian economies that could have far-reaching effects on private sector development, especially for small businesses that need greater transparency and simplification of procedures to enable them to more readily access regional and global value chains.
    Keywords: WTO, Agreement on Trade Facilitation, ATF, East Asia, Southeast Asia, trade facilitation, non-tariff measures, NTMs, trade costs, trading costs, value chains, regional value chains, global value chains, global supply chains
    JEL: F13 F14 F53
    Date: 2014–06–01
  17. By: Pek Koon Heng
    Abstract: The ASEAN Way of security cooperation – based on principles of sovereignty, non-intervention, peaceful resolution of conflict, and consultation and consensus decision-making – has maintained intra-ASEAN harmony since the grouping’s formation in 1967. It has also enabled ASEAN to play a central role in regional integration by successfully engaging external major powers in an overlapping regional network of ASEAN-led organizations such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, East Asia Summit and ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus. However, exercising decisive influence within the wider Asia-Pacific environment is beyond ASEAN’s limited strategic resources. Moreover, the consensus-seeking, shallowly institutionalized ASEAN Way approach has seemed poorly equipped to handle Chinese assertive divide-and-rule diplomacy that has accompanied its power projection in the South China Sea. As China mounts its maritime claims and seeks to expand its regional influence relative to the United States, ASEAN is challenged to maintain intra-ASEAN unity, deepen intra-ASEAN integration and effectively engage the United States, China and other powers in safeguarding peace and stability in the region. Despite shortcomings in the ASEAN Way of security cooperation, it is argued that, given the inability of China and Japan to provide cooperative leadership in establishing an alternative multilateral security mechanism, ASEAN will continue to serve as the default instrumentality for maintaining a modest level of multilateral security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific.
    Date: 2014–12–18
  18. By: Anastasia B. Likhacheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Igor A. Makarov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Though Siberia and the Russian Far East are often considered oil and gas reservoirs, the southern areas of these regions have significant potential for water-intensive production, such as agricultural goods, chemicals, pulp and paper, metals, hydro energy. This potential is strengthening due to the proximity of the most dynamic and water demanding region of the world—the Asian-Pacific region (APR), where the challenge of water and food security is recognized as strategic. Russian political discourse has always been determined by a Eurocentric focus which has seriously constrained intensive cooperation with Asia. This paper investigates the opportunities and challenges to Siberia and the Russian Far East from the perspective of interdependence theory and its water specification—the virtual water concept. The most significant outcomes of the research refer to both theory and strategy. We show that in some cases the virtual water trade may help the water economy on a global scale but worsen the long-term regional water security status and increase the level of water stress in particular areas. The implication for Russia and APR is that Russia’s integration into the APR virtual water market would provide considerable benefits for Russia which include economic gains. More importantly, according to the interdependence theory, as well as a defensive realism, Russia, acting as a guarantor of Asia’s food and water security, would provide long-term positive effects for the whole APR through reduced water stress, and the desecuritization of the food trade and water allocation in the region
    Keywords: virtual water, water scarcity; Asia-Pacific, Russian Far East, international trade, food security
    JEL: F50 F18 Q25
    Date: 2014
  19. By: Emily Beam; David McKenzie; Dean Yang
    Abstract: Significant income gains from migrating from poorer to richer countries have motivated unilateral (source-country) policies facilitating labor emigration. However, their effectiveness is unknown. We conducted a large-scale randomized experiment in the Philippines testing the impact of unilaterally facilitating international labor migration. Our most intensive treatment doubled the rate of job offers but had no identifiable effect on international labor migration. Even the highest overseas job-search rate we induced (22%) falls far short of the share initially expressing interest in migrating (34%). We conclude that unilateral migration facilitation will at most induce a trickle, not a flood, of additional emigration.
    JEL: C93 F22 O15
    Date: 2014–12
  20. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Public Sector Development
    Date: 2014–04
  21. By: David Dawe; Steven Jaffee; Nuno Santos
    Keywords: Crops and Crop Management Systems Agriculture - Agricultural Research Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Agriculture - Climate Change and Agriculture Food and Beverage Industry Industry
    Date: 2014
  22. By: Kleine Deters B.; Nimeh Z. (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: This paper aims to shed some light on the drivers of relatively small-scale ethno-communal violence within an ethnically diverse state, by quantitatively examining the relationship between horizontal inequalities and ethno-communal violence. Specifically it addresses the complexity in assessing the effect of Horizontal Inequality on ethno-communal conflict in Indonesia. The paper examines the case of Indonesia around the time of the downfall of the New Order regime and the first years of the reformasi roughly 1997-2003. Different HI indicators are constructed and a pooled time series cross-sectional probit regression is utilised, using deadly ethno-communal violence as a binary dummy dependent variable. The research measures HI indicators across five dimensions health, employment, education, housing and network connectivity, which are further subdivided into access and achievement variables. Results show that while horizontal inequalities can be considered a determinant for ethno-communal conflict, there are marked differences in the society for different groups, in this case linguistic versus religious groups. Preliminary results show that a common basis is formed by horizontal inequalities in malnutrition and water source. A main driver of the ethno-religious estimations has been adult educational attainment, pointing out to a narrative where schooling - and the career chances that come with it - is something for the privileged groups, leading to frustration among the disadvantaged. This study adds to the existing literature on horizontal inequalities and conflict by building on previous studies and looking further at a broad range of horizontal inequality indicators within the diverse context of Indonesia. We reflect on the notion that there is not a single dimension with a clearly stronger explanatory strength than another. Rather, it is the combination of different facets of horizontal inequality that enables us to uncover the variation in the data.
    Keywords: Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement;
    JEL: D63
    Date: 2014
  23. By: Wignall, David (Asian Development Bank Institute); Wignall, Mark (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper examines the seaports responsible for handling the majority of trade around the Bay of Bengal and identifies the projects that will enable trade and contribute to improving maritime infrastructure. It reviews the nature, potential evolution, and primary types of maritime trade around the bay, and analyzes the ships carrying that trade. It also reviews the potential changes that would have a significant impact on trade patterns, with special consideration of the Indian East Coast Corridor study. The paper likewise examines the main ports on the Bay of Bengal to understand their history, regulatory regimes, purpose, capabilities, primary specifications, constraints, productivity, fitness for purpose when compared to other ports in comparable situations, and their opportunities to improve and develop. Finally, the paper develops strategic options through which the seaports around the bay can adjust and develop to support the evolution of trade. The paper provides policy recommendations on how constraints can be addressed.
    Keywords: bay of bengal; maritime trade and transport; port infrastructure and development; container ports
    JEL: F14 L91
    Date: 2014–12–25
  24. By: Huu Chi Nguyen (University of Paris North, UMR DIAL); Christophe Nordman (IRD, UMR 225 DIAL, PSL, Université Paris Dauphine, LEDa)
    Abstract: (english) Using a unique panel of household businesses for Vietnam, this paper sheds light on the links between households’ and entrepreneurs’ social networks and business performance. We address two related questions. One first question asks if we can find evidence of a differentiated effect of employment of members of the family versus hired workers on the business performance. A second question tackles the respective effects of various dimensions of social networks on the business technical efficiency. The assumption is that, beyond the channel of labour productivity, entrepreneurs that are confronted with an unfavourable social environment may produce less efficiently and realize a lower output than what could be possible with the same amount of resources. We find evidence of a productivity differential between family and hired labour and highlight results consistent with the presence of adverse social network effects faced by households running a business, in particular ethnic minorities. We stress the importance of professional networks for successful entrepreneurship. _________________________________ (français) En utilisant un panel de microentreprises familiales au Vietnam, cet article met en relation le réseau social des entrepreneurs et de leur ménage avec la performance de la microentreprise familiale. Nous abordons deux questions connexes. La première examine la possibilité d'effets différenciés de l'emploi des membres de la famille par rapport à des travailleurs recrutés sur le marché du travail sur la performance de la microentreprise. Une deuxième question aborde les effets respectifs des différentes dimensions des réseaux sociaux sur l'efficience technique de la microentreprise. L'hypothèse testée est que, au-delà du canal de la productivité du travail, les entrepreneurs qui sont confrontés à un environnement social défavorable pourraient produire moins efficacement et réaliser une valeur ajoutée plus faible que ce qui pourrait être possible avec la même quantité de ressources. Nous montrons qu'il existe en effet un différentiel de productivité entre le travail familial et le travail recruté sur le marché, et nos résultats attestent de la présence d'effets défavorables du réseau social pour certains ménages gérant une microentreprise. Nous soulignons aussi l'importance des réseaux professionnels pour la réussite de l'entreprenariat familial.
    Keywords: Family labour, Kinship and ethnic ties, Sharing norms, Social network capital, Informality, Household business, Panel, Vietnam.
    JEL: D13 D61 O12
    Date: 2014–11
  25. By: Lord, Montague J.; Clarke, Julian; Record, Richard; Artuso, Fabio
    Abstract: The World Trade Organization’s new Agreement on Trade Facilitation has the potential to significantly reduce East Asia’s trade costs along the entire supply chain, increasing regional gross domestic product (GDP) by 2.7 percent and employment by 1.2 percent. At present, the region’s developing economies suffer from trade costs well above those of the newly industrialized countries and of developed economies, owing to the large number of inefficient border and behind-the-border procedures. Countries have been adding to their stock of nontariff measures, which now account for as much as 90 percent of (non-transportation) trade costs. The ATF defines a new reform agenda for East Asia with potentially far-reaching effects on private sector development, especially for small businesses that need greater transparency and simplification of procedures to enable them to readily access regional and global value chains.
    Keywords: trade costs, tariff and non-tariff barrier, trading costs, value chains, WTO, Agreement on Trade Facilitation, nontariff measures, East Asia, trade facilitation
    JEL: F1 F13 O53
    Date: 2014–04–15
  26. By: Lord, Montague J.
    Abstract: Laos benefits from the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA). The Agreement has eliminated tariffs on 90% of Australia’s and New Zealand’s imports, with the remaining tariff lines to be removed by 2020. For Laos, it provides for a much longer transition period for eliminating tariffs in recognition of the country’s status as a newer ASEAN member having as least developed country status. The Agreement also eliminates non-tariff barriers like licensing requirements; offers procedures on standards and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures; facilitates communications and shipping services; and guarantees equal treatment to foreign investments. These preferential arrangements offer Laos significant opportunities for accessing the Australian and New Zealand markets in a wide range of products. Although tariff rates are, on average, relatively low for non-AANZFTA countries, they still raise costs. Lao producers and exporters therefore have a competitive cost advantage because Australian and New Zealand importers can buy Lao products without having to pay customs duties on those imports. Australia and New Zealand have conducive environments for doing business. Both rank within the top 10 best countries in general, and they both have above-average rankings for ease of trading across borders. In addition, Australia’s and New Zealand’s logistics environments are highly favorable to trading. Both countries rely heavily on trade with ASEAN countries. The ASEAN region is the largest trading partner of Australia and the fourth largest one for New Zealand. This study covers the operation of the Agreement and its parts related to rules of origin, opportunities of Lao businesses, how to gain access to the market, and useful contacts and resources.
    Keywords: ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area, AANZFTA, ASEAN, FTA, free trade area, Laos, Lao PDR, ASEAN Dialogue Partners
    JEL: F13 F53 F55
    Date: 2013–03–01
  27. By: Deuchert, Eva; Huber, Martin
    Abstract: Many instrumental variable (IV) regressions include control variables to justify (conditional) independence of the instrument and the potential outcomes. The plausibility of conditional IV independence crucially depends on the timing when the control variables are determined. This paper systemically works through different IV models and discusses the (conditions for the) satisfaction of conditional IV independence when controlling for covariates measured (a) prior to the instrument, (b) after the treatment, or (c) both. To illustrate these identification issues, we consider an empirical application using the Vietnam War draft risk as instrument either for veteran status or education to estimate the effects of these variables on labor market and health outcomes.
    Keywords: Instrument, control variables, conditional independence, covariates
    JEL: C26 J24
    Date: 2014–12
  28. By: Deuchert, Eva; Huber, Martin
    Abstract: Many instrumental variable (IV) regressions include control variables to justify (conditional) independence of the instrument and the potential outcomes. The plausibility of conditional IV independence crucially depends on the timing when the control variables are determined. This paper systemically works through different IV models and discusses the (conditions for the) satisfaction of conditional IV independence when controlling for covariates measured (a) prior to the instrument, (b) after the treatment, or (c) both. To illustrate these identification issues, we consider an empirical application using the Vietnam War draft risk as instrument either for veteran status or education to estimate the effects of these variables on labor market and health outcomes.
    Keywords: instrument; control variables; conditional independence; covariates
    JEL: C26 J24
    Date: 2014–12–18
  29. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: Transport Economics Policy and Planning Industry - Common Carriers Industry Transport - Airports and Air Services Roads and Highways Transport and Trade Logistics
    Date: 2014–04
  30. By: Laurence A. Green (Harvard Business School); James K Sebenius (Harvard Business School, Negotiation, Organizations & Markets Unit)
    Abstract: Complex, multiparty negotiations are often analyzed as principals negotiating through agents, as two-level games (Putnam 1988), or in coalitional terms. The relatively new concept of a "multi-front negotiation campaign" (Sebenius 2010, Lax and Sebenius, 2012) offers an analytic approach that may enjoy descriptive and prescriptive advantages over more traditional approaches that focus on a specific negotiation as the unit of analysis. The efforts of Singapore Ambassador-At-Large Tommy Koh to negotiate the United States-Singapore Free Trade agreement serve as an extended case study of a complex, multiparty negotiation that illustrates and further elaborates the concept of a negotiation campaign.
    Keywords: Tommy Koh, negotiation campaign, fronts, negotiation, diplomacy, multiparty negotiations, free trade, Singapore, international relations, United States, Special Trade Representative
    Date: 2014–12
  31. By: Elisabetta De Cao
    Abstract: Height is the result of a complex process of growth that begins at birth and reaches the end in early adulthood. This paper studies the determinants of height from birth to maturity. A height production function is specified whose structure allows height to be the result of the accumulation of inputs (i.e., nutrition and diseases) over time. The empirical specification allows the causal identification of the age specific effects of both nutrition and diseases on height. Rich longitudinal data on Filipino children followed for more than 20 years are used. Considering the differences in growth patterns between boys and girls, the results show the existence of two critical periods for the formation of height: infancy and pre-puberty. In particular, diseases experienced during infancy, specially in the second year of life, and nutrition during pre-puberty play a major role.
    Keywords: height; health; early-life events; production function; Philippines
    JEL: I10 I12 O15 C13
    Date: 2014
  32. By: Solveig Delabroye
    Abstract: The eco-industry is a key sector for our future, both economically (the industry accounts for 3% of GDP in most developed countries) and as a tool to tackle ecological challenges. For the past decade, international organizations such as the WTO and OECD have pledged for a swift liberalization targeting Environmental Goods and Services (EGS), which are still characterized by high tariffs and non-tariffs barriers and a low level of competition. In spite of many political declarations, no international trade agreements directed specifically at this industry has been reached except from the one adopted by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in 2012. This report examines the reasons for the apparent failure of international negotiations on this issue, specifically focusing on the idiosyncrasies of the eco-industry regarding custom regulations and on what are stakes for each party. Indeed, strategic trade analysis of the respective interests of developing and developed countries reveals asymmetric incentives, which sheds some light on the discrepancies between enthusiastic political statements and the lack of actual agreements. Finally, some past bilateral and regional trade and environmental agreements and the solutions they propose in relation to the current situation in international trade of EGS are considered, and the relevance of global trade agreements as a tool of EGS policy is discussed. <P>L’industrie environnementale est un secteur-clé pour notre futur, à la fois sur le plan économique (le secteur représente environ 3% du PIB dans les pays développés) et comme instrument pour répondre aux défis écologiques croissants. Durant la dernière décennie, les organisations internationales (OCDE, OMC) ont appelé à une libéralisation rapide des Biens et Services Environnementaux, qui se distinguent aujourd’hui par des barrières douanières et règlementaires importantes et une concurrence relativement faible. Malgré de nombreuses déclarations politiques, aucun accord de commerce international spécifique à ce secteur n’a été conclu à l’exception de celui ratifié au sein de la Coopération Economique pour l’Asie-Pacifique (APEC) en 2012. Ce rapport se penche sur les raisons de ce qui semble pour l’instant être un échec des négociations internationales, en s’attachant aux spécificités de l’éco-industrie en terme de régulations douanières, mais aussi aux enjeux de ces négociations pour les différentes parties prenantes. Une analyse stratégique des intérêts commerciaux respectifs des pays développés et en développement révèlera des incitations asymétriques et expliquera en partie l’écart entre les déclarations d’intentions et l’absence d’accords effectifs. Enfin, nous examinerons quelques exemples d’accords bilatéraux ou régionaux concernant le commerce ou l’environnement pour voir quelles solutions peuvent être apportées, et interrogerons la pertinence d’accords de commerce en tant qu’outil de facilitation du commerce international des biens et services environnementaux.
    Keywords: Eco-industry, internatioal market, trade agreements, Industrie environnementale, marché international, accord de commerce international
    Date: 2014–12–01
  33. By: Yi, Junjian (National University of Singapore); Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago); Zhang, Junsen (Chinese University of Hong Kong); Conti, Gabriella (University College London)
    Abstract: An open question in the literature is whether families compensate or reinforce the impact of child health shocks. Discussions usually focus on one dimension of child investment. This paper examines multiple dimensions using household survey data on Chinese child twins whose average age is 11. We find that, compared with a twin sibling who did not suffer from negative early health shocks at ages 0-3, the other twin sibling who did suffer negative health shocks received RMB 305 more in terms of health investments, but received RMB 182 less in terms of educational investments in the 12 months prior to the survey. In terms of financial transfers over all dimensions of investment, the family acts as a net equalizer in response to early health shocks for children. We estimate a human capital production function and establish that, for this sample, early health shocks negatively affect child human capital, including health, education, and socioemotional skills. Compensating investments in health as measured by BMI reduce the adverse effects of health shocks by 50%, but exacerbate the adverse impact of shocks on educational attainment by 30%.
    Keywords: early health shocks, intrahousehold resource allocation, human capital formation
    JEL: C23 D13 I12 J13
    Date: 2014–12
  34. By: Joseph Abdou (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Nikolaos Pnevmatikos (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Marco Scarsini (Engineering System Design Pillar - Singapore University)
    Abstract: We introduce the classes of uniform and non interactive games. We study appropriate projection operators over the space of games, in order to propose a novel canonical direct sum decomposition of an arbitrary game into three components, which we refer to as the uniform with zero constant, the non interactive total sum zero and the constant components. Under a natural inner product, we show that the components are orthogonal and we provide explicit expressions for the closet uniform and non interactive games to a given game. We characterize the set of its approximate equilibria in terms of the uniformly mixed and dominant strategies equilibria profiles of its closest uniform and non interactive games respectively.
    Keywords: Decomposition of games, projection operator, dominant strategy equilibrium, uniformly mixed strategy.
    JEL: C70 C79
    Date: 2014–11
  35. By: Elise Huillery (Département d'économie); Nina Guyon (Department of Economics (Singapore))
    Abstract: Ce projet de recherche étudie les choix d'orientation d'élèves de 3e, avec trois objectifs : - Quantifier les inégalités d’orientation selon l’origine sociale ; - Quantifier le phénomène d’autocensure selon l’origine sociale ; - Déterminer les causes de l’autocensure selon le milieu d’origine : coût des études, anticipation des chances de réussite, manque d'information sur les orientations, notation des enseignants, influence des pairs, estime de soi scolaire... Conduit au sein du LIEPP, le projet a également reçu l’appui financier du comité scientifique de Sciences Po en mars 2012, ainsi que de l’appel à projets « Egalité des chances à l’école » lancé par la DEPP, le Défenseur des Droits et l’Acsé en juillet 2012.
    Date: 2014–12

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