nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2014‒11‒28
twenty-one papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. The impact of ASEAN economic integration on occupational outlooks and skills demand By El Achkar Hilal, Souleima
  2. Role of ICT in the innovation process based on firm-level evidence from four ASEAN economies: An SEM approach By Idota, Hiroki; Ueki, Yasushi; Bunno, Teruyuki; Shinohara, Sobee; Tsuji, Masatsugu
  3. Examining the Relationship between the Use of Supermarkets and Over-nutrition in Indonesia By Umberger, Wendy J.; He, Xiaobo; Minot, Nicholas; Toiba, Hery
  4. Finding the Poor vs. Measuring Their Poverty: Exploring the Drivers of Targeting Effectiveness in Indonesia. By Bah, Adama; Bazzi, Samuel; Sumarto, Sudarno; Tobias, Julia
  5. Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy : An Asian Stock Market Perspective By Naoyuki Yoshino; Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary; Ali Hassanzadeh; Ahmad Danu Prasetyo
  6. Segmentation and informality in Vietnam : a survey of the literature: country case study on labour market segmentation By Cling, Jean-Pierre; Razafindrakoto, Mireille; Roubaud, François
  7. Environmental Dynamic, Business Strategy, and Financial Performance: An Empirical Study of Indonesian Property and Real Estate Industry By Wahyudi, Imam
  8. Productivity and Technical Inefficiency of Alternative Pest Management Compliant and Non-Compliant Farmers: The Case of Shallot Growers in Java By Wahida; Yi, Dale; Umberger, Wendy; Stringer, Randy; Minot, Nicholas
  9. Causal linkages between electricity consumption and GDP in Thailand: evidence from the bounds test By Jiranyakul, Komain
  10. Demand for internet access and use of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Thailand By Srinuan, Chalita
  11. The middle-income trap from the viewpoint of trade structures By Kumagai, Satoru
  12. Bank Ownership and Credit Growth in Emerging Markets During and After the 2008–09 Financial Crisis — A Cross-Regional Comparison By Guodong Chen; Yi Wu
  13. Technical Efficiency of Thai Jasmine Rice Farmers: Comparing Price Support Program Participants and Non-Participants By Duangbootsee, Uchook; Myers, Robert J.
  14. Yield and Income Effects of the Green Super Rice (GSR) Varieties: Evidence from a Fixed-Effects Model in the Philippines By Yorobe, Jose Jr; Pede, Valerien; Rejesus, Roderick; Velarde, Orlee; Wang, Huaiyu; Ali, Jauhar
  15. Infrastructutre Investments for Power Trade and Transmission in ASEAN+2: Costs, Benefits, Long-Term Contracts, and Prioritised Development By Yanfei LI; Youngho CHANG
  16. Reward, punishment and probabilities in policy measurements: An extra laboratory experiment about effectiveness and efficiency of incentives in palm oil production By Moser, Stefan; Mußhoff, Prof. Dr. Oliver
  17. Determinants of Operational Efficiency and Total Factor Productivity Change of Major Cambodian Financial Institutions : A Data Envelopment Analysis during the Period of 2006-2013 By OKUDA, Hidenobu; AIBA, Daiju
  18. The Role of Sensory Profile in the Extra-Virgin Olive Oil Consumers Choice By Cicia, Gianni; Caracciolo, Francesco; Del Giudice, Teresa; Sannino, G.; Verneau, Fabio
  19. The Effects of Mortality on Fertility: Population Dynamics after a Natural Disaster By Jenna Nobles; Elizabeth Frankenberg; Duncan Thomas
  20. "Prediction in Heteroscedastic Nested Error Regression Models with Random Dispersions" By Tatsuya Kubokawa; Shonosuke Sugasawa; Malay Ghosh; Sanjay Chaudhuri
  21. Effectiveness of the Easing of Monetary Policy in the Japanese Economy, Incorporating Energy Prices By Naoyuki Yoshino; Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

  1. By: El Achkar Hilal, Souleima
    Abstract: What is the potential impact of the ASEAN Economic Community 2015 on the occupational structure of ASEAN Member Countries? Building on the sectoral output and employment impacts of the AEC derived from a separate computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper develops an innovative occupational projections model to examine the projected shifts in occupational demand and in the occupational structure of the economy to determine potential skills mismatches that may ensue. The paper identifies the occupations that are likely to have the highest demand as ASEAN economic integration progresses in six ASEAN Member Countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam), with potential implications for the education, TVET and skills system in the countries. With the AEC likely to lead to an increase in both the demand for and supply of workers in occupations that are linked to the informal economy, the paper argues for the critical need to strengthen social protection systems in ASEAN Member Countries.
    Keywords: labour market, employment, labour demand, skill, interindustry shift, economic integration, regional cooperation, ASEAN countries, marché du travail, emploi, besoins en main-d'oeuvre, qualifications, mutation interindustrielle, intégration économique, coopération régionale, pays de l'ANASE, mercado de trabajo, empleo, necesidad de mano de obra, calificación, desplazamiento industrial, integración económica, cooperación regional, países del ASEAN
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Idota, Hiroki; Ueki, Yasushi; Bunno, Teruyuki; Shinohara, Sobee; Tsuji, Masatsugu
    Abstract: Although the East Asian economies have been developing in the 21th century, innovation is indispensable for their further economic development. In order to achieve successful innovation, firms have to elevate their capability including technology, human resources, business organization, ICT use and so on by collaborating with outside organizations such as MNCs (Multi-national companies), universities, public organizations. The outside organizations are termed as external linkages. Based on authors' survey data of four ASEAN economies such as Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand from 2012 to 2013, this paper examines how factors such as organizational learning, ICT use, and technology enhance product and process innovation. These factors are used as latent variables in analysis and consist of the following variables: (i) technology such as capital goods, (ii) organizational learning including QC, cross-functional teams, (iii) ICT use such as B2B, B2C, EDI, SCM, ERP, CAD/CAM, groupware, SNS etc., and (iv) external linkages, such as MNCs, local and public organizations, and universities. This study employs SEM (Structural equation modeling) in order to analyze the causal relationships not only among the above four latent variables but also between these and innovation. The six hypotheses were postulated as follows: H1. External linkages enhance organizational learning; H2. External linkages improve capital goods; H3. External linkage improves ICT use; H4. Organizational learning improves capital goods; H5. Organizational learning improves ICT use; and H6. Organizational learning, ICT use, and capital goods enhance innovation. Estimation results on product innovation demonstrate that organization learning, technology (capital goods), and ICT use enhance product innovation. On the other hand, organization learning promotes technology (capital goods) and ICT use, which promotes process innovation. Accordingly, this study clarifies that ICT use, technology and innovation capability enhance product and process innovation.
    Keywords: ICT use,innovation, internal capability,external linkages,SEM (Structural equation modeling)
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Umberger, Wendy J.; He, Xiaobo; Minot, Nicholas; Toiba, Hery
    Abstract: This study examines the relationship between the use of modern food retailers and health outcomes, using data from a survey of 1180 urban households in Indonesia. The dependent variables include adult and child body-mass index (BMI) and the share of individuals overweight and obese. After controlling for individual and household characteristics and using standard and Lewbel instrumental variable approaches to control for unobservable characteristics, we do not find a statistically significant relationship between use of supermarkets and adult nutrition measures. On the other hand, there is mixed evidence for a negative effect of supermarkets on child nutrition, particularly for those in high-income households.
    Keywords: supermarket, diet, nutrition, BMI, Indonesia, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, I15, P46, Q18,
    Date: 2014–07
  4. By: Bah, Adama; Bazzi, Samuel; Sumarto, Sudarno; Tobias, Julia
    Abstract: Centralised targeting registries are increasingly used to allocate social assistance benefits in developing countries. This paper provides the first attempt to identify the relative importance of two key design issues for targeting accuracy: (1) which households to survey for inclusion in the targeting registry and (2) how to rank surveyed households. We evaluate the performance of Indonesia’s Unified Database for Social Protection Programmes (UDB), the largest targeting registry in the world, which is used to provide social assistance to more than 25 million households. Linking administrative data with an independent household survey, we find that the UDB system is more progressive than previous targeting approaches used in Indonesia, leading to a decrease in benefit leakage to non-poor households. However, if poor households are not surveyed in the first place, even a perfect ranking method cannot prevent their exclusion. Under a simulation that considers enumerating and estimating proxy-means testing (PMT) scores for all households (as in a census), we estimate a one-third decrease in undercoverage compared to focusing on households that have been registered in the UDB. Investigating household- and community-level correlates of misenumeration and misclassification, we find evidence that local communities use different definitions of poverty and have better information on the welfare status of their members.
    Keywords: Targeting, Proxy-Means Testing, Social Protection, Poverty
    JEL: D1 I3 I38
    Date: 2014–11–12
  5. By: Naoyuki Yoshino (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary; Ali Hassanzadeh; Ahmad Danu Prasetyo
    Abstract: We estimate the response of Asian stock market prices to exogenous monetary policy shocks using a vector error correction model. In our paper, monetary policy transmits to stock market price through three routes : money by itself, exchange rate, and inflation. Our result points to the fact that stock prices increase persistently in response to an exogenous easing monetary policy. Variance deposition results show that, after 10 periods, the forecast error variance of beyond 53% of the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) can be explained by exogenous shocks to the US dollar–Iranian rial exchange rate, while this ratio for exogenous shocks to Iranian real gross domestic product was only 17%. We argue that such evidence can be accounted for by an endogenous response of the stock prices to the monetary policy shocks.
    Keywords: Asian stock market, monetary policy shocks, Variance Decomposition
    JEL: E44 G10 G12
    Date: 2014–09
  6. By: Cling, Jean-Pierre; Razafindrakoto, Mireille; Roubaud, François
    Abstract: Labour market segmentation is usually defined as the division of the labour markets into separate sub-markets or segments, distinguished by different characteristics and behavioural rules (incomes, contracts, etc.). The economic debate on the segmentation issue has been focusing in developed countries, and especially in Europe, on contractual segmentation and dualism.
    Keywords: labour market segmentation, employment, informal economy, informal workers, social protection, Viet Nam, segmentation du marché du travail, emploi, économie informelle, travailleurs informels, protection sociale, Vietnam, segmentación del mercado de trabajo, empleo, economía informal, trabajadores informales, protección social, Viet Nam
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Wahyudi, Imam
    Abstract: Firm’s strategic orientation involves synchronizing environmental dynamics, corporate strategy and capital structure in order to achieve firm performance targets. The co-alignment model used successfully in the hospitality industry might be used in a wider context as a framework in explaining these relationships simultaneously. Using the data of public firms in Indonesia during the period of 1996-2010, we found that co-alignment model can be implemented in property and real estate industry as well as in hospitality industry.
    Keywords: macroeconomic conditions, corporate strategy, performance, property and real estate, investment
    JEL: D92 E22 G32 O33
    Date: 2012–10–11
  8. By: Wahida; Yi, Dale; Umberger, Wendy; Stringer, Randy; Minot, Nicholas
    Abstract: In response to (a) growing demand for high safety and quality fresh food products; (b) increasingly stringent standards on chemical residues, and (c) concern regarding the sustainability of chemical input intensive agriculture, the adoption of sustainable production systems (IPM, Pesticide-Free, organic) in agriculture is rapidly expanding. This study uses data from 2011 Shallots Growers Survey in Indonesia to compare the productivity, technical efficiency of APM-adopter and conventional (non-adopter) shallots farmers. We also measure yield loss that may associate with technology adoption. Self-selectivity may cause the frontier production function to differ between the adopters and non-adopters. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method is used to address self-selectivity before we continue the analysis with Stochastic Production Frontier (SPF). We reject the homogenous technology hypothesis and interestingly the result indicates that on average yield loss that associated with adopting APM farming practices only 1.5%. The yield loss itself can be gradually improved by implementing a proper training and extension methods and empowering the role of farmers’ group among shallot farmers.
    Keywords: Alternative Pest Management, Shallots, Technical Inefficiency, Propensity Score Matching, Indonesia, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Q12, Q16,
    Date: 2014
  9. By: Jiranyakul, Komain
    Abstract: This paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP by applying the bounds testing for cointegration in a multivariate framework. The error correction mechanism is employed to detect causal relationship in the presence of cointegration among three variables. Empirical results for Thailand during 2001Q1 and 2014Q2 suggest that there is long-run bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and real GDP. The source of causation in the long run is found by the significance of the error correction terms in both directions. In the short-run dynamics analysis, the positive relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth is not observed. The findings give implications for electricity efficiency and alternative energy sources in the long run.
    Keywords: Causality, electricity consumption, economic growth
    JEL: C32 Q43
    Date: 2014–11
  10. By: Srinuan, Chalita
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse the demand and use of Internet access by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Thailand. Given the huge importance of SMEs to a national economy such as Thailand, this paper dives into the data to understand the magnitude of the issue. Official 2010 Thai government statistics state there are 2.82 million SMEs with unregistered SMEs triple this size. This compares to a population figure of 66.79 million and an Internet user community of 36 million users. This study therefore set out to empirically examine by use of a bivariate probit model whether the variables of computer availability, business sector, SME size, organizational form or foreign shareholding has a systematic link to Internet access. After this, once Internet use was determined, to analyse and estimate specific usage. The impact of these factors varies from service to service (i.e. e-mail, searching, retrieving and interacting with governmental agencies or purchasing goods and services online). Implications suggest that SME Internet connectivity and subsidy should be considered by key policy makers while developing and implementing more robust infrastructure and better support which could stimulate the growth of Internet access and use. Along with fixed/land line technologies, wireless broadband technologies such as 3G/4G could be another alternative to solve the lack of fixed infrastructure and provide an opportunity for SME Internet services. This must also be combined with better education and support for the entrepreneurial SME owner/manager.
    Keywords: Internet access,Internet use,SMEs,Thailand
    Date: 2014
  11. By: Kumagai, Satoru
    Abstract: In this study, we try to elucidate the middle-income trap from the viewpoint of international trade. We conduct regression analyses on the relationship between income level and net export ratios for different types of goods for trapped and non-trapped samples separately. Our findings indicate that industrial upgrading appears to occur exactly as depicted by the flying-geese model for non-trapped countries while trapped countries tend to depend on the export of primary commodities, and industrialization appears to be driven by forward linkages to processed goods and a narrow base. The results of our analyses suggest that the middle-income trap is a form of Dutch disease or a 'resource curse' in the middle-income stage.
    Keywords: Myanmar, International trade, Economic development, Middle-income trap, Malaysia, Trade structure, Flying geese
    JEL: F14 O10 O53
    Date: 2014–11
  12. By: Guodong Chen; Yi Wu
    Abstract: This paper examines bank credit growth in emerging markets before, during, and after the 2008-09 financial crisis using bank-level data, focusing on the role of bank ownership. Credit growth by foreign banks lagged behind that of domestic banks in 2009 in Asia, and in 2010 in Latin America and emerging Europe. State-owned banks instead played a counter-cyclical role during the crisis in particular in Latin America and emerging Europe, and credit by stateowned banks also grew faster than that of private banks after the crisis in Latin America. Expansionary monetary policy on average led to higher credit growth. Banks in Latin America and Asia that relied more on retail funding had higher credit growth, in particular during the crisis. Better-capitalized banks and banks with more liquid assets also had faster credit growth. Finally, banks in countries with stronger banking regulation had higher credit growth during the crisis.
    Keywords: Bank credit;Asia;Latin America;Central and Eastern Europe;Credit expansion;Emerging markets;Foreign banks;Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009;Cross country analysis;Credit Growth; Bank Ownership; Financial Crisis
    Date: 2014–09–15
  13. By: Duangbootsee, Uchook; Myers, Robert J.
    Abstract: The rice price support program (PSP) in Thailand is designed to support rice prices and raise incomes of rice farmers. However, it has been argued that the program only attracts participation from certain types of farmers, in particular larger and more efficient farmers with higher farm incomes. This raises the question of whether there is a difference in the technical efficiency of program participants and non-participants. This paper investigates two issues: (a) what are the key determinants of farmers’ decision to participate in the PSP? and (b) do program participants and non-participants use different rice production technologies and have different levels of technical efficiency. We take a stochastic frontier approach to answering these questions but because farmers self-select into the PSP the standard stochastic frontier model may lead to biased estimation. In response we augment the standard stochastic frontier model with a participation equation explaining the decision to participate in the PSP, and then use Heckman’s two-step estimation and Greene’s sample selection stochastic production frontier model to explore levels of technical efficiency among participants and non-participants. Results indicate that the participation decision is governed by key factors that include land size and the financial position of the farm. Results also show there is no strong evidence to support the presence of selectivity bias in the stochastic frontier estimates. In addition, a likelihood-ratio test indicates that participants and non-participants use the same frontier production technology. The analysis of technical efficiency reveals that participants are more technically efficient than non-participants. The findings therefore suggest that larger farmers participate more in the PSP and that these program participants tend to be more technically efficient farmers.
    Keywords: Technical efficiency, stochastic production frontier, selectivity bias, jasmine rice, Thailand, price support program, Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2014
  14. By: Yorobe, Jose Jr; Pede, Valerien; Rejesus, Roderick; Velarde, Orlee; Wang, Huaiyu; Ali, Jauhar
    Abstract: With the increasing frequency of extreme climatic events, the new challenge is to develop rice varieties that are tolerant of drought, water submergence, and salinity. There are now new high yielding GSR cultivars developed at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) with increased tolerance of multiple abiotic stresses, such as drought, submergence, and salinity. But a clear understanding of the economic benefits of these varieties under farmers’ production environments is not yet fully understood. In this paper we assess the yield and income effects of GSR rice varieties using a two-year panel data from one province. We use the survey data and a fixed-effects model within a difference-in-difference (DID) framework to estimate the yield effects. The income effects were evaluated with a profit function using the parameter estimates from the yield/production function model. The results of the OLS and DID fixed-effects regressions both reveal significant and positive effects of GSR varieties on yield. The most important finding is that the benefits from these varieties are more strongly felt when there is flooding, which traditional varieties cannot withstand because of sensitivity to submergence. We also find that farmers who achieved higher yield through the use of GSR rice varieties in the presence of abiotic stresses, also obtained higher net farm income per hectare. These findings have very important implications for food security in the Philippines. With the dramatic climatic shifts, particularly in areas where rice production is dominant and extensive, the benefits that the GSR varieties could offer may be significant to secure more rice and alleviate poverty in the country.
    Keywords: technology adoption, multiple abiotic stress-tolerant rice, impact evaluation, fixedeffects, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2014
  15. By: Yanfei LI (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Youngho CHANG (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University)
    Abstract: This study establishes a system approach in assessing the financial viability of power infrastructure investment for the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) and ASEAN Power Grid (APG) in the ASEAN+2 (ASEAN plus China and India) region. It aims to identify the financial and finance-related institutional barriers of implementing such regional power interconnectivity. A whole-grid/system simulation model is built to assess both their financial and commercial viability, which implies profitability for investors and bankability for financiers of new transmission projects with the optimised pattern of power trade. The study also determines the optimised planning of new transmission capacities. Results show that the existing planning of power transmission infrastructure in the region, so-called APG+, stands as a commercially and financially viable plan. However, there is room for improvement in the planning in terms of timing, routes, and capacity of the cross-border transmission lines. The study also recommends that GMS-related projects should be prioritised.
    Keywords: cross-border power trade, power infrastructure, financial viability, commercial viability
    JEL: Q40 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2014
  16. By: Moser, Stefan; Mußhoff, Prof. Dr. Oliver
    Abstract: Palm oil production creates negative externalities, e.g. through intensive fertiliser application. If policy wants to determine externalities an effective and efficient measurement seems desirable. Embedded in an extra laboratory field experiment on Sumatra, a business simulation game tests several incentives for reducing the use of fertiliser. These incentives are differently designed, i.e., either reward or punishment, varying in their magnitude and probability of occurrence but constant in the effect on expected income. Results show that participants react significantly different depending on the incentive design. A high reward with a low probability to occur was found to be the most effective and sustainable incentive design. For efficiency, a low and certain reward is indicated to be the best design.
    Keywords: policy measurement, effective incentive, efficient inventive, field experiment, business simulation game, Indonesia, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2014–09
  17. By: OKUDA, Hidenobu; AIBA, Daiju
    Abstract: This study is the first attempt to estimate the determinants of the operational efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) change of major financial institutions in Cambodia during the period 2006 to 2013. The technical efficiency score and the TFP change were measured using conventional data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist index, and these obtained indexes were then regressed to find their determinants. The empirical results obtained reveal that the efficiency of large institutions is higher and more stable than that of small institutions, and the efficiency of domestic institutions is better than that of their foreign counterparts. Furthermore, institutions that are more resilient and operationally stable can generate profits more efficiently, and institutions that are more diversified are more efficient. It was also observed that sound and diversified institutions tend to increase their total factor productivity, and some exogenous factors, such as increased household reserves of financial assets and improved economic infrastructure, contributed to the improvement of productivity change. These observations suggest that further improvement of Cambodian financial institutions requires an increase in operational capacity, appropriate selection of foreign ownership, enhanced soundness of management, and greater diversification.
    Keywords: Cambodia, DEA, Commercial banks, Operational efficiency, Total factor productivity
    JEL: G21
    Date: 2014–11–05
  18. By: Cicia, Gianni; Caracciolo, Francesco; Del Giudice, Teresa; Sannino, G.; Verneau, Fabio
    Abstract: sensory profiles promoted by the Extra-virgin olive oil (EVO) is an important element of the Mediterranean diet and a valuable agricultural crop for Southern Europe countries in terms of both farm income and cultivated area. Moreover, given the increased popularity of the Mediterranean diet among consumers in US, Canada, Australia and large parts Asia, EVO consumption has grown almost worldwide. In Italy olive-oil production has switched from low yields and low-input cultivation to a capital intensive farming system involving innovations of both agricultural practices and processing techniques: sensory characteristics of the product were significantly improved, changing the traditional taste from “neutral odour and flavour” and well known organoleptic features, to new complex sensory profiles. This evolution is due to the developments that have taken place in the sensory analysis of olive oil and the use of trained panel responses as a means of monitoring and guidance in the production of quality oils. Currently, agricultural research and sensory panels managed not only to identify what aspects of taste and smell are indicators of quality of the oil but also the correlation of these with the production techniques. The situation today is that consumers can find on the market EVOs characterized by well-differentiated sensory profiles. On the consumption side, however, buyers seem still to prefer neutral flavour oils with little or no personality. This aspect deserves a central position in present research on EVOs because consumer preferences risk undermining all efforts to improve the quality of the product made from the production side. In the following work, the role of sensory components in the consumers preferences of EVOs will be explicitly evaluated through an Hedonic Price model. During October 2012, a sample of 68 EVOs available on the shelf of a Supermarket belonging to one of the largest big retailers operating in Italy were bought. The 68 different EVOOs were also evaluated by a panel of expert tasters to get a precise sensory profile for each of them. The results estimation of a simultaneous two equations model well highlighted the idiosyncrasy of the consumers’ preferences towards the trained experts.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,
    Date: 2013–09
  19. By: Jenna Nobles; Elizabeth Frankenberg; Duncan Thomas
    Abstract: Understanding how mortality and fertility are linked is essential to the study of population dynamics. We investigate the fertility response to an unanticipated mortality shock that resulted from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed large shares of the residents of some Indonesian communities but caused no deaths in neighboring communities. Using population-representative multilevel longitudinal data, we identify a behavioral fertility response to mortality exposure, both at the level of a couple and in the broader community. We observe a sustained fertility increase at the aggregate level following the tsunami, which is driven by two behavioral responses to mortality exposure. First, mothers who lost one or more children in the disaster are significantly more likely to bear additional children after the tsunami. This response explains about 13 percent of the aggregate increase in fertility. Second, women without children before the tsunami initiated family-building earlier in communities where tsunami-related mortality rates were higher, indicating that the fertility of these women is an important route to rebuilding the population in the aftermath of a mortality shock. Such community-level effects have received little attention in demographic scholarship.
    JEL: J11 J13 O1
    Date: 2014–09
  20. By: Tatsuya Kubokawa (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Shonosuke Sugasawa (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Malay Ghosh (Department of Economics, University of Florida); Sanjay Chaudhuri (Department of Statistics, National Univeristy of Singapore)
    Abstract: The paper concerns small-area estimation in the heteroscedastic nested error regression (HNER) model which assumes that the within-area variances are different among areas. Although HNER is useful for analyzing data where the within-area variation changes from area to area, it is difficult to provide good estimates for the error variances because of small samples sizes for small-areas. To fix this difficulty, we suggest a random dispersion HNER model which assumes a prior distribution for the error variances. The resulting Bayes estimates of small area means provide stable shrinkage estimates even for small sample sizes. Next we propose an empirical Bayes procedure for estimating the small area means. For measuring uncertainty of the empirical Bayes estimators, we use the conditional and unconditional mean squared errors (MSE) and derive their second-order approximations. It is interesting to note that the difference between the two MSEs appears in the first-order terms while the difference appears in the second-order terms for classical normal linear mixed models. Second-order unbiased estimators of the two MSEs are given with an application to the posted land price data.
    Date: 2014–08
  21. By: Naoyuki Yoshino (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
    Abstract: Japan has reached the limits of conventional macroeconomic policy. In order to overcome deflation and achieve sustainable economic growth, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently set an inflation target of 2% and implemented an aggressive monetary policy so this target could be achieved as soon as possible. Although prices started to rise after the BOJ implemented monetary easing, this may have been for other reasons, such as higher oil prices. Oil became expensive as a result of the depreciated Japanese yen and this was one of the main causes of the rise in inflation. This paper shows that quantitative easing may not have stimulated the Japanese economy either. Aggregate demand, which includes private investment, did not increase significantly in Japan with lower interest rates. Private investment displays this unconventional behavior because of uncertainty about the future and because Japan’s population is aging. We believe that the remedy for Japan’s economic policy is not to be found in monetary policy. The government needs to implement serious structural changes and growth strategies.
    Keywords: Easing of Monetary Policy, the Japanese economy, energy price, Bank of Japan, aging population
    JEL: E47 E52 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2014–11

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