nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2014‒08‒25
sixty-one papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. ASEAN Corporate Governance Scorecard: Country Reports and Assessments 2012-2013 By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  2. Broadening the Investor Base for Local Currency Bonds in the ASEAN+2 Countries By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  3. Trade Policy and Growth in Asia By Kawai, Masahiro; Wignaraja, Ganeshan
  4. Highlights of the 2013 Annual Meeting Knowledge Sharing and Partnership Events By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  5. From Global Factory to Global Mall: East Asia’s Changing Trade Composition By Helble, Matthias; Ngiang, Boon-Loong
  6. East Asia and the Pacific Region Urban Sanitation Review : Philippines Country Study By World Bank
  7. Service Sector Productivity and Economic Growth in Asia By Lee, Jong-Wha; McKibbin, Warwick J.
  8. Strengthening Social Protection Systems in Asia and the Pacific in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis By Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, with inputs from the Social Development Division, ESCAP. Insightful comments and written contributions received from Erlinda Capones, Director IV, National Economic and Development Authority, Philippines, are acknowledged with appreciation.
  9. Trade Facilitation, Value Creation, and Competiveness : Policy Implications for Vietnam's Economic Growth, Volume 2 By Duc Minh Pham; Deepak Mishra; Kee-Cheok Cheong; John Arnold; Anh Minh Trinh; Huyen Thi Ngoc Ngo; Hien Thi Phuong Nguyen
  10. How Capital Flows Affect Economy-Wide Vulnerability and Inequality: Flow-of-Funds Analysis of Selected Asian Economies By Azis, Iwan J.; Yarcia, Damaris Lee
  11. South-South Cooperation in Asia-Pacific: Emerging Trends and Potential By Clovis Freire (based on Nagesh Kumar (2009). South-South and Triangular Cooperation in Asia-Pacific: Towards a New Paradigm in Development Cooperation, UNESCAP Working Paper WP/09/05, available at www.unescap.org/publications/detail. asp?id=1369); Kiatkanid Pongpanich (based on Nagesh Kumar (2009). South-South and Triangular Cooperation in Asia-Pacific: Towards a New Paradigm in Development Cooperation, UNESCAP Working Paper WP/09/05, available at www.unescap.org/publications/detail. asp?id=1369)
  12. Climate Risks in the Mekong Delta: Ca Mau and Kien Giang Provinces of Viet Nam By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  13. Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2013 : Pressures Mounting By World Bank
  14. Growth Horizons for a Changing Asian Regional Economy By Roland-Holst, David; Sugiyarto, Guntur
  15. Costing MDG Gaps in the Asia-Pacific By Alberto Isgut; Clovis Freire
  16. Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2014 : Investment in Flux By World Bank
  17. Indonesia Economic Quarterly, December 2013 : Slower Growth, High Risks By World Bank
  18. Indonesia : Evaluation of the Urban Community Driven Development Program, Program Nasional Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Mandiri Perkotaan By World Bank
  19. Malaysia - Insurance Core Principles : Detailed Assessment of Observance By World Bank
  20. Governance and Developing Asia: Concepts, Measurements, Determinants, and Paradoxes By Quibria, M.G.
  21. Impact of Out-of-Pocket Expenditures on Families and Barriers to Use of Maternal and Child Health Services in Asia and the Pacific: Evidence from National Household Surveys of Healthcare Use and Expenditures By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  22. Asian Development Outlook Forecast Skill By Ferrarini, Benno
  23. Indonesia : Avoiding the Trap By World Bank
  24. Assessment of the Financing Framework for Municipal Infrastructure in Vietnam By World Bank
  25. Using M&E to Support Performance Based Planning and Budgeting in Indonesia By Mark Ahern; Victoria A. Beard; Anna I. Gueorguieva; Retno Sri Handini
  26. Malaysia : Bond Market Development By International Monetary Fund; World Bank
  27. Compilation and Synthesis of Major Agricultural Value Chain Analysis in the Philippines By Briones, Roehlano M.
  28. Can Open Service Sector FDI Policy Enhance Manufacturing Productivity? Evidence from Indonesia By Victor Duggan; Sjamsu Rahardja; Gonzalo Varela
  29. The European debt crisis: implications for Asia and the Pacific By Shuvojit Banerjee
  30. Malaysia : Sustainable Adoption of Innovative Channels for Financial Inclusion By World Bank
  31. Country Gender Assessment for Lao PDR : Reducing Vulnerability and Increasing Opportunity By Asian Development Bank; World Bank
  32. Restructuring Corporate Income Tax and Value Added Tax in Vietnam : An Analysis of Current Changes and Agenda for the Future By World Bank
  33. Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2013 : High-Performing Education By Frederico Gil Sander; Intan Nadia Jalil; Rabia Ali
  34. Lao PDR Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Roadmap 2013 Update By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  35. A Spatial Integration Analysis of the Regional Fertilizer Markets in the Philippines By Galang, Ivory Myka R.
  36. Tonga Economic Update and Outlook 2012 By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  37. Malaysia Economic Monitor : Harnessing Natural Resources By World Bank
  38. Public–Private Service Delivery Arrangements and Incentive Schemes in Developing Asia By Capuno, Joseph J.
  39. Asia-Pacific Least Developed Countries in the next decade: Strategy and policy agenda for building productive capacities By Clovis Freire
  40. Philippines : PPP Options in Irrigation Sector By World Bank
  41. Vietnam Fiscal Transparency Review : Analysis and Stakeholder Feedback on State Budget Information in the Public Domain By World Bank
  42. District Governance and Student Learning in Indonesia By Pradhan, Menno; de Ree, Joppe
  43. Socialist Republic of Vietnam : Performance of the Wastewater Sector in Urban Areas, A Review and Recommendations for Improvement By World Bank
  44. Operational Plan for Enhancing ADB's Effectiveness in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  45. What Goes Around Comes Around : Designing Innovative Learning Events to Improve Relationships and Program Results in the Philippines SEF Program By Noel N. Verdote; Marianna Alfa Fernando-Pacua
  46. Socialist Republic of Vietnam : Review of Urban Water and Wastewater Utility Reform and Regulation By World Bank
  47. Former foreign affiliates: Cast out and outperformed? By Beata Javorcik; Steven Poelhekke
  48. Cambodia : Study on Access to Financial Services for Small and Medium Agribusiness Enterprises in Cambodia By World Bank
  49. Getting a Grip on Climate Change in the Philippines : Extended Technical Report By World Bank
  50. Gender and Development Mainstreaming : Country Gender Assessment 2012, Philippines By World Bank
  51. Getting a Grip on Climate Change in the Philippines : Executive Report By World Bank
  52. Cambodia Economic Update, April 2014 : Coping with Domestic Pressures and Gaining from a Strengthened Global Economy By World Bank
  53. Resilience Amidst a Challenging Environment : Cambodia Economic Update, September 2013 By World Bank
  54. Local Governance and Education Performance : A Survey of the Quality of Local Education governance in 50 Indonesian Districts By Samer Al-Samarrai
  55. Skills for Quality Jobs and Development in Lao PDR : A Technical Assessment of the Current Context By World Bank
  56. Expenditure Growth in Laos Between 1997 and 2008 : Is It Due to the Improvement of Social Factors or their Returns? By Keisuke Kawata; Leksay Keoyasan; Yuichiro Yoshida
  57. Nonparametric Testing for Anomaly Effects in Empirical Asset Pricing Models By Sainan Jin; Liangjun Su; Yonghui Zhang
  58. Lao PDR : Trade and Transport Facilitation Assessment By World Bank
  59. Sustaining Growth, Maintaining Macroeconomic Stability : Lao PDR Economic Monitor, June 2013 By World Bank
  60. Shrinkage Estimation of Regression Models with Multiple Structural Changes By Junhui Qian; Liangjun Su
  61. Identifying Latent Structures in Panel Data By Liangjun Su; Zhentao Shi; Peter C. B. Phillips

  1. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); ;
    Abstract: Corporate governance principles provide guidance on how corporations should operate and can be useful to attract foreign investments. In the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), countries use national methodologies to assess corporate governance performance of publicly listed companies. The Asian Development Bank in partnership with the ASEAN Capital Markets Forum have jointly developed an ASEAN methodology of corporate governance assessment using a scorecard system that is based on international best practices and that encourages publicly listed companies to go beyond national legislation requirements. This inaugural report is a compilation of corporate governance assessments of publicly listed companies in six ASEAN countries using the Scorecard. The assessment is useful to improve corporate governance in the region collectively and to brand ASEAN as an asset class.
    Keywords: asean, indonesia, malaysia, philippines, singapore, thailand, vietnam, corporate governance, finance, investments, publicly listed companies, stock exchange, corporate governance assessment, scorecard, ASEAN scorecard, viet nam, association of southeast asian nations, asean capital markets forum, country reports and assessments
    Date: 2013–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt135634-2&r=sea
  2. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Office of Regional Economic Integration, ADB); ;
    Abstract: The Asian Development Bank has been working closely with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan, and the Republic of Korea—collectively known as ASEAN+3—to promote the development of local currency bond markets in the region through the Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI). ABMI was launched in 2002 to help channel regional savings toward long-term investments within the region. ABMI was established with the goal of improving the resilience of the region’s financial systems by helping reduce the double mismatches (maturity and currency) of companies’ investment financing. Since the launch of ABMI, local currency bond markets in the region have grown rapidly in recent decades in terms of size and diversity of issuers. This study was undertaken under ABMI and funded by the Government of Japan. It focuses on measures to expand the investor base for local currency bonds in ASEAN, the PRC, and the Republic of Korea, with the goal of generating greater variety in investment objectives and a wider range of investment strategies.
    Keywords: local currency bonds, investors, regional integration, ASEAN+3, ASEAN, asian bonds, asian bond markets initiative, mutual funds, buy and hold portfolios, emerging market debt, financial institutions, government securities, china, prc, indonesia, korea, malaysia, philippines, singapore, thailand
    Date: 2013–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt15462-2&r=sea
  3. By: Kawai, Masahiro (Asian Development Bank Institute); Wignaraja, Ganeshan (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper examines the changing relationship between trade policy, production networks, and economic growth in Asia. It traces East Asia’s rise to the coveted “Factory Asia” league with rapid growth over several decades through trade policy anchored on outward-oriented industrialization strategies, including a voluntary liberalization approach under the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and a multilateral approach under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO) system. It explores the implications of various stresses to the performance of Factory Asia such as the consequences of the global financial crisis, the risk of protectionism, the persistence of residual behind-the-border regulatory barriers, the failure to conclude ambitious WTO multilateral trade negotiations, and the relative exclusion of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Next, it examines the evolving trade policy response in major East Asian economies centered on free trade agreements (FTAs) to support the functioning of Factory Asia and key policy challenges posed by FTAs, including the insufficient depth of FTAs, the risk of an Asian noodle bowl of multiple rules of origin, the potential for raising use of FTA preferences, and the emergence of mega-regional FTA negotiations. Finally, it considers policy implications at the national, regional, and global levels for supporting Factory Asia and growth in Asia.
    Keywords: Trade policy; FTAs; WTO; regional integration; production networks; Factory Asia
    JEL: F13 L23 O19
    Date: 2014–08–17
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0495&r=sea
  4. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Office of The Secretary, ADB); ;
    Keywords: annual meeting 2013, governor's seminar, annual meeting highlights 2013, key developments, apps for asia, annual meeting new delhi, beyond factory asia, asian development bank, adb
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt135783-3&r=sea
  5. By: Helble, Matthias (Asian Development Bank Institute); Ngiang, Boon-Loong (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper studies how East Asia’s trade composition and orientation have changed over the past decade and analyzes the implications for the region and beyond. Over the last 2 decades we have witnessed the emergence of regional and global supply chains, in which production is divided into production stages or tasks across the most competitive locations. East Asia has been the most successful region in the world in building up or joining regional and global supply chains and has been described as “Factory Asia” (Baldwin 2008). Introducing a new and simple analytical tool, we show that over the past decade East Asia has successfully consolidated its role as the “Global Factory.” Furthermore, studying East Asia’s recent trade patterns in primary, intermediate, capital, and consumption goods, our results indicate that East Asia is on track to becoming one of the biggest “malls” in the world. Whereas in 1999–2000 around half of all consumption goods exported by East Asia went to the United States and the European Union-27, in 2011–2012 half stayed in the region or were traded with the rest of the world.
    Keywords: Global supply chains; trade composition; East Asia; Factory Asia; Global Factory; Global Mall
    JEL: F14 F15 N15
    Date: 2014–08–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0496&r=sea
  6. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Water Supply and Sanitation - Wastewater Treatment Water Supply and Sanitation - Town Water Supply and Sanitation Water Supply and Sanitation - Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Water Resources - Water and Industry Water Supply and Sanitation - Sanitation and Sewerage
    Date: 2013–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17593&r=sea
  7. By: Lee, Jong-Wha (Asian Development Bank Institute); McKibbin, Warwick J. (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper explores the impacts of more rapid growth in labor productivity in the service sector in Asia based on an empirical general equilibrium model. The model allows for input–output linkages and capital movements across industries and economies, and consumption and investment dynamics. We find that faster productivity growth in the service sector in Asia benefits all sectors eventually, and contributes to the sustained and balanced growth of Asian economies, but the dynamic adjustment is different across economies. This adjustment depends on the sectoral composition of each economy, the capital intensity of each sector, and the openness of each sector to international trade. In particular, during the adjustment to higher services productivity growth, there is a significant expansion of the durable manufacturing sector that is required to provide the capital stock that accompanies the higher aggregate economic growth rate.
    Keywords: service sector; labor productivity; general equilibrium model; asian economies
    JEL: J21 O11 O14 O41 O53
    Date: 2014–07–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0490&r=sea
  8. By: Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, with inputs from the Social Development Division, ESCAP. Insightful comments and written contributions received from Erlinda Capones, Director IV, National Economic and Development Authority, Philippines, are acknowledged with appreciation.
    Abstract: The triple threats to development1 in 2008 and 2009 highlight the need to strengthen social protection systems in Asia and the Pacific. This Policy Brief provides reasons why this strengthening should be a critical component of the region’s development agenda, and shows that a number of innovative initiatives in this area have already been implemented, pointing the way forward. There is a need to build on such initiatives so that their full countercyclical macroeconomic stabilizing effect can be tapped into before threats materialize.
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb3&r=sea
  9. By: Duc Minh Pham; Deepak Mishra; Kee-Cheok Cheong; John Arnold; Anh Minh Trinh; Huyen Thi Ngoc Ngo; Hien Thi Phuong Nguyen
    Keywords: Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Transport Economics Policy and Planning Transport - Airports and Air Services Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - E-Business
    Date: 2013–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16785&r=sea
  10. By: Azis, Iwan J. (Asian Development Bank); Yarcia, Damaris Lee
    Abstract: In contrast to the situation that preceded the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis, Asia today is a region with excess savings where corporate savings dominate. In the mid-2000s, the extent of liquidity was further amplified by massive capital flows, particularly bank-led flows. The flows were briefly interrupted by the global financial crisis, before debt-led flows began to dominate, following the Quantitative Easing (QE) policy in the United States. Using flow-of-funds data, this study determines that the surge in liquidity in Asian financial systems has changed the behavior of agents and institutions. The general trend shows that agent references for investing in financial instruments have increased as financial liberalization provides more opportunities to do so. This can have economy-wide repercussions, ranging from financial instability to widening income disparity and falling employment elasticity. In the banking sector, an increase in non-core sources of funding influences banks’ asset allocation, with loans increasing rapidly, escalating the risks of pro-cyclicality and asset bubble creation.
    Keywords: Excess Savings; International Fund Flows; Financial Risks; Volatility
    JEL: E44 F32
    Date: 2014–07–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbrei:0136&r=sea
  11. By: Clovis Freire (based on Nagesh Kumar (2009). South-South and Triangular Cooperation in Asia-Pacific: Towards a New Paradigm in Development Cooperation, UNESCAP Working Paper WP/09/05, available at www.unescap.org/publications/detail. asp?id=1369) (Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific); Kiatkanid Pongpanich (based on Nagesh Kumar (2009). South-South and Triangular Cooperation in Asia-Pacific: Towards a New Paradigm in Development Cooperation, UNESCAP Working Paper WP/09/05, available at www.unescap.org/publications/detail. asp?id=1369) (Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: With the rise of emerging countries in the Asia and Pacific region as growth poles of the world economy, South-South cooperation (SSC) and triangular development cooperation (TDC) have become viable strategies for development. This Policy Brief reviews the emerging trends and patterns of SSC and TDC in the region, and outlines a policy agenda for strengthening and enhancing their effectiveness.
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb9&r=sea
  12. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); ;
    Abstract: This report presents the outputs of the Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in the Mekong Delta. The study focuses on vulnerability assessment of two provinces in the Mekong Delta region: Ca Mau and Kien Giang. Using climate change modeling, socioeconomic data, geographic information system analysis, and expert opinion, the study identifies future climate conditions and assesses the effects of future climate scenarios on the natural, social, and economic systems of each district of Ca Mau and Kien Giang provinces. It provides provides province and district policy makers with an understanding of the key areas of vulnerability and risk hot spots with regard to climate change up to 2050. It provides practical measures that provincial and district administrations can take to inform and strengthen their climate change adaptation programs.
    Keywords: vietnam, ca mau province, kien giang province, mekong delta, climate hazards, climate change adaptation, agriculture and natural resources, energy and transport, environmental sustainability. GHG emissions, sea level rise, extreme climate, climate-proofing
    Date: 2013–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt135841-2&r=sea
  13. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Date: 2013–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16614&r=sea
  14. By: Roland-Holst, David (University of California, Berkeley); Sugiyarto, Guntur (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: After two generations of economic growth, the next phase of structural transformation for Asia will have several salient features. Our results suggest that no single policy orientation, pathway, or even destination will apply to all economies. The main driver for each economy’s structural change will be demand, both domestic and external. These demand sources can have very different sector emphasis, however, and drive domestic resource allocation in different directions. Asian economies with high export shares will be drawn to more intensive primary and industrial resource allocation, while those with larger domestic demand shares will become more service-oriented. Our long-term forecasts for the Asian economies suggest that factor productivity growth continues to be essential to improving livelihoods generally and promoting regional convergence in particular. Of particular importance is potential for reducing regional inequality through more inclusive growth—productivity improvements are more cost-effective in lower-income countries and they have a bigger relative income dividend. Our research also reveals that services are essential contributors to average living standards in high-, medium-, and even low-income Asian economies. For this reason, policies that improve the efficiency of service sector labor allocation, as well as skill and productivity improvements via determined education and training programs, will be essential to sustaining higher living standards and transition to long-term growth sustained by demand from an ever-expanding middle class.
    Keywords: structural transformation; factor productivity; Asian financial integration; service sector
    JEL: C51 C53 E37 F17 F18 O47
    Date: 2014–03–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0392&r=sea
  15. By: Alberto Isgut (Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific); Clovis Freire (Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: Although the Asia-Pacific region has made significant progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), most of its countries are still off-track on one or more indicators. This policy brief examines what would it take for countries in the Asia-Pacific region to meet their MDG targets by 2015. It first focuses on the income-poverty gap which continues to persist despite high rates of growth. It then goes on to provide estimates of the resources needed for closing the MDG gaps in the areas of education, health, nutrition and sanitation. It concludes with a few remarks on policy challenges in the light of the findings.
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb5&r=sea
  16. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Date: 2014–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17792&r=sea
  17. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Date: 2013–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17609&r=sea
  18. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements - Urban Slums Upgrading Governance - Governance Indicators Social Development - Community Development and Empowerment Housing and Human Habitats Poverty Monitoring and Analysis Poverty Reduction
    Date: 2013–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17870&r=sea
  19. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Insurance and Risk Mitigation Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Law and Development - Insurance Law
    Date: 2013–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16615&r=sea
  20. By: Quibria, M.G. (Morgan State University)
    Abstract: Recent years have seen the emergence of a considerable volume of literature on governance and its role in economic and social development of a country. This paper provides a critical review of the literature. This review brings into the open a number of serious conceptual, measurement, and data issues as well as the existence of an Asian governance paradox—i.e., a general disjunction between growth and governance in most Asian economies. This paradox seems to suggest that much of the current policy discussion on governance is essentially faith-based. It calls into question the quality of the existing data and the analytical basis of the policy orthodoxy.
    Keywords: government quality; corruption; bureaucracy; social capital
    JEL: O40 O43 P30 P48
    Date: 2014–03–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0388&r=sea
  21. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Regional and Sustainable Development Department, ADB); ;
    Abstract: The burden of poor maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) remains unacceptably high in many developing member countries (DMCs). To understand the barriers facing households in accessing MNCH care, the ADB technical assistance project RETA-6515 analyzed data from routine national household expenditure surveys in six DMCs: Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste. The findings reveal not only the rich evidence base available in these surveys, but also show how healthcare costs, quality, and physical barriers play differing roles in different countries in preventing access, and how families are often impoverished by accessing needed care.
    Keywords: Bangladesh; Cambodia; the Lao People's Democratic Republic; Laos; Lao PDR; Pakistan; Papua New Guinea; Timor-Leste; out-of-pocket expenditures; maternal, newborn and child health
    Date: 2012–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt135429-3&r=sea
  22. By: Ferrarini, Benno (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International Monetary Fund are used as a benchmark against which to derive a comparative measure of the accuracy of ADO forecasts, or skill. ADO is found to be ‘more skillful’ than WEO in estimating both current-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index (CPI) inflation of Asian economies. WEO may have an edge over ADO when it comes to year-ahead GDP forecasts, while ADO’s inflation forecasts tend to be more accurate. By and large, and notwithstanding much heterogeneity across economies and years, both sets of forecasts display a high degree of inaccuracy during the crisis years.
    Keywords: economic forecasts; forecast skill; Asian Development Outlook; Asian Development Bank; World Economic Outlook; International Monetary Fund
    JEL: E17 E37
    Date: 2014–02–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0386&r=sea
  23. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform Public Sector Economics Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Date: 2014–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18944&r=sea
  24. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Urban Development - Municipal Financial Management Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Public Sector Development
    Date: 2013–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17568&r=sea
  25. By: Mark Ahern; Victoria A. Beard; Anna I. Gueorguieva; Retno Sri Handini
    Keywords: Private Sector Development - E-Business Technology Industry Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Public Sector Expenditure Policy
    Date: 2012–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17065&r=sea
  26. By: International Monetary Fund; World Bank
    Keywords: Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Finance and Financial Sector Development - Deposit Insurance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Mutual Funds Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets
    Date: 2013–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16713&r=sea
  27. By: Briones, Roehlano M.
    Abstract: Recently, the agricultural sector in the Philippines has enjoyed robust growth driven by rapid price increases in key subsectors, namely, rubber, sugarcane, and coconut. The largest subsectors, however, namely, rice and corn, relatively experienced slower growth and exhibited lower competitiveness than high-value crops (e.g., fruits and vegetables). This study undertakes a stock-taking of value chain studies and gap analysis for major agricultural commodities. It finds that value chain opportunities seem to be well-substantiated for export-oriented crops. The sites suitable for these value chains are those in which primary production and marketing systems are fairly well-established. The value chain studies also take note that risks and entry barriers do pose challenges toward agri-enterprises even in the high-opportunity areas. Value chain activities or niche products may also be found even for the less competitive, import-competing products.
    Keywords: Philippines, rice, corn, value chain studies, niche product, high-value crops
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2014-35&r=sea
  28. By: Victor Duggan; Sjamsu Rahardja; Gonzalo Varela
    Keywords: Private Sector Development - E-Business Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Transport Economics Policy and Planning International Economics and Trade - Trade and Services Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures Public Sector Development Transport
    Date: 2013–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17014&r=sea
  29. By: Shuvojit Banerjee (Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: Asia-Pacific economies are increasingly concerned about the impact of the public debt crisis in a number of European economies. In recent months, the scale of public debt in Greece in particular, but also in Ireland, Portugal and Spain, has led to credit downgrades and increases in the debt servicing costs of those countries. In response, their Governments have pledged to close their fiscal deficits and decrease their levels of debt in the coming years through stringent programmes of budget cuts, as affirmed recently by the G-20.1 Further compounding the fiscal gap are ageing societies and decades-old weak economic growth which will require additional resources as well as leading to declining tax proceeds. Consequently, the global financial markets have yet to be convinced that the affected countries will be able to reduce budget deficits sufficiently to lower public debt to the level required. The worst-case scenario of sovereign debt defaults in one or more European countries at some point remains a concern. For Asia-Pacific economies, two questions arise: (a) To what degree will these difficulties translate into reduced growth prospects as the region continues its V-shaped recovery from the global economic crisis? While some impact on Asia-Pacific is inevitable given the global linkages of economies in this region, it is important to establish whether the impact will be restricted to a limited moderating of their otherwise robust ongoing recovery, or whether the impact will threaten a downturn in Asia-Pacific akin to a double-dip recession; (b) As the crisis has exposed policy tensions inherent to the European integration process, how will the Asia-Pacific region evolve its exchange rate and fiscal policy coordination?
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb4&r=sea
  30. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - E-Business Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - E-Finance and E-Security
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16729&r=sea
  31. By: Asian Development Bank; World Bank
    Keywords: Health Monitoring and Evaluation Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Gender - Gender and Health Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Gender - Gender and Development
    Date: 2013–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16511&r=sea
  32. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Law and Development - Tax Law Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Investment and Investment Climate Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Taxation and Subsidies
    Date: 2014–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17832&r=sea
  33. By: Frederico Gil Sander; Intan Nadia Jalil; Rabia Ali
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Date: 2013–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16705&r=sea
  34. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); ;
    Abstract: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is preparing sector assessments, strategies, and road maps (ASRs) to help align future ADB support with the needs and strategies of developing member countries and other development partners. ASRs are a working document that helps inform the development of country partnership strategies. This energy sector ASR updates development issues, needs, and priorities of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) for ADB’s assistance in the coming years, with a focus on the electricity subsector. It highlights sector performance, priority development constraints, the government’sstrategy and plans, other development partner support, lessons learned from past ADB support, and possible future ADB assistance. The product serves as a basis for further dialogue on how ADB and the government can work together to achieve the government’s goals of 90% electrification and sustainable development electricity sector in the Lao PDR in the coming years.
    Keywords: laos, lao pdr, laos energy, laos power supply, energy, electricity, energy transmission, energy consumption, electrification, hydropower, natural gas, oil supply, biofuels, coal, power plants, lao pdr energy sector, petroleum, renewable energy
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt135628&r=sea
  35. By: Galang, Ivory Myka R.
    Abstract: Fertilizer, which is an important production input, holds a significant share in total cost of production for some crops. Based on the available fertilizer price data, it can be observed that price levels vary greatly across regions. To help determine whether or not this variability is alarmingly high, a spatial market integration analysis was done. Based on the Granger causality test, it is found that the price in one region either causes or affects prices in another region. The cointegration test suggests that regional markets are integrated. Long-run relationships are also shown to be statistically significant. The finding that regional fertilizer markets in the Philippines are integrated is consistent with the absence of market power in the fertilizer industry. The number of market players in the industry makes it highly unlikely for one or few dealers of fertilizer to control the market price of fertilizer.
    Keywords: Philippines, fertilizer, spatial market integration, Granger causality, Johansen cointegration test
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2014-36&r=sea
  36. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Pacific Department, ADB); ;
    Abstract: This economic report on Tonga is the result of a joint project of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Australian Agency for International Development. It is part of ADB’s Pacific Islands Economic Report series, which aims to assist governments in formulating policy by analyzing a country’s economic and socioeconomic situation, key issues, and development prospects. The report provides a longitudinal study of the Tonga economy covering the last 2 decades.
    Keywords: tonga, economic growth, growth domestic product, public sector reform, economy tonga, economic forecast tonga, government tonga
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rps135755-2&r=sea
  37. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16529&r=sea
  38. By: Capuno, Joseph J. (University of the Philippines)
    Abstract: In many countries, public agencies or private firms are gradually moving away from being exclusive providers of goods and services that traditionally were assigned to the state or markets, respectively. Instead, state agencies, both at the national and the local level, and private organizations, both for-profit firms and nongovernment organizations (NGOs), increasingly coordinate, collaborate, or partner to finance, produce, or provide public services. This paper attempts to identify the factors that account for the successes or failures of such public–private service delivery arrangements, with a focus on the role of monetary andnonmonetary incentives used in selected case studies in developing Asia. It finds that such arrangements are a viable service delivery mechanism where there is a state or market failure. While governments now increasingly enter into such partnerships, they appear to do so more with for-profit firms than with NGOs. A key lesson is to mobilize potential private sector partners, match the partner’s mission with the appropriate type or level of service provision, and then motivate them with the right incentives but also monitor them for performance accordingly.
    Keywords: public–private partnerships; NGOs; incentives; public service delivery; Asia
    JEL: H39 H49 L31 L33
    Date: 2014–02–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0387&r=sea
  39. By: Clovis Freire (Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: New measures and strategies for the sustainable development of the least developed countries into the next decade should pay special attention to the transformation of their productive capacities – not only to produce more of the same but to produce and trade new and more sophisticated products. Productive capacities can be generated by the process of strategic diversification through the combined efforts of the State and the private sector with a supportive role played by development partners. This Policy Brief outlines a policy agenda for such an effort in the context of the Fourth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries (LDC-IV).
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb8&r=sea
  40. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Agriculture - Agricultural Irrigation and Drainage Private Sector Development - Enterprise Development & Reform Water Resources - Irrigation and Drainage
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18702&r=sea
  41. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Public Sector Expenditure Policy Public Sector Economics Social Development - Social Accountability Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Development
    Date: 2014–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18960&r=sea
  42. By: Pradhan, Menno (VU University Amsterdam); de Ree, Joppe (World Bank consultant)
    Abstract: We document the likely importance of district governance and teacher management policies in relation to student learning in Indonesian primary schools. As the responsibility to deliver primary education has been decentralized to district governments, we expect district specific variations in teacher management policies. Consequently, we also expect variations in learning trajectories across districts. We document substantial heterogeneity in learning gains across districts. Furthermore, we show that schools with more active teacher working groups and higher-qualified teachers achieve better learning gains. However, teacher management policy variables, including school budgets, participation rates in teacher working groups, or student–teacher ratios, can explain only a fraction of the differences in learning across districts. It is likely that the “quality” of operation matters. More detailed measurement is needed to further understanding of the heterogeneity in performance.
    Keywords: education; school governance; student learning
    JEL: I21
    Date: 2014–06–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0397&r=sea
  43. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Water Supply and Sanitation - Wastewater Treatment Water Supply and Sanitation - Town Water Supply and Sanitation Water Supply and Sanitation - Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Water Resources - Water and Industry Water Supply and Sanitation - Sanitation and Sewerage
    Date: 2013–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17367&r=sea
  44. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Strategy and Policy Department, ADB); ;
    Abstract: Supporting its developing member countries (DMCs) affected by fragility and conflict is a high priority for the Asian Development Bank (ADB). This is demonstrated by ADB’s adoption of its 2007 approach, which responds to the special challenges faced by DMCs experiencing conditions that are now generally described as fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCAS), and by ADB’s endorsement of the New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States in 2011. ADB’s Strategy 2020 reinforces its commitment to FCAS. The Operational Plan for Enhancing ADB’s Effectiveness in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations provides details on actions that ADB will take to improve the development impact of its support to DMCs that are experiencing fragility and the effects of conflict on either a national or subnational level.
    Keywords: fcas, conflict affected countries, fragile states, political instability, civil unrest, peace building, weak governance, unstable countries, violence, state failure, operational plan, fcas road map, fcas operations, stability, country strategies
    Date: 2013–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt135365-2&r=sea
  45. By: Noel N. Verdote; Marianna Alfa Fernando-Pacua
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Education - Knowledge for Development Education - Primary Education Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Banks and Banking Reform
    Date: 2014–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18685&r=sea
  46. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Water Supply and Sanitation - Town Water Supply and Sanitation Water Resources - Water and Industry Water Supply and Sanitation - Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Water Supply and Sanitation - Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions Infrastructure Economics and Finance - Infrastructure Regulation
    Date: 2014–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18946&r=sea
  47. By: Beata Javorcik; Steven Poelhekke
    Abstract: The literature has documented a positive effect of foreign ownership on firm performance. But is this effect due to a one-time knowledge transfer or does it rely on continuous injections of knowledge? To shed light on this question we focus on divestments, that is, foreign affiliates that are sold to local owners. To establish a causal effect of the ownership change we combine a difference-in-differences approach with propensity score matching. We use plant-level panel data from the Indonesian Census of Manufacturing covering the period 1990-2009. We consider 157 cases of divestment, where a large set of plant characteristics is available two years before and three years after the ownership change and for which observationally similar control plants exist. The results indicate that divestment is associated with a drop in total factor productivity accompanied by a decline in output, markups as well as export and import intensity. The findings are consistent with the benefits of foreign ownership being driven by continuous supply of headquarter services from the foreign parent.
    Keywords: divestment; foreign direct investment; Indonesia; productivity
    JEL: F23
    Date: 2014–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:435&r=sea
  48. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Private Sector Development - E-Business Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets
    Date: 2013–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17554&r=sea
  49. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Science and Technology Development - Science of Climate Change Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics Environment - Adaptation to Climate Change Rural Development - Common Property Resource Development
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16543&r=sea
  50. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Health Monitoring and Evaluation Gender - Gender and Development Gender - Gender and Health Gender - Gender and Law Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Health Nutrition and Population
    Date: 2014–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17794&r=sea
  51. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Rural Development - Common Property Resource Development Science and Technology Development - Science of Climate Change Environment - Adaptation to Climate Change Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16525&r=sea
  52. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Public Sector Expenditure Policy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Date: 2014–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17784&r=sea
  53. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Date: 2013–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16632&r=sea
  54. By: Samer Al-Samarrai
    Keywords: Access and Equity in Basic Education Governance - National Governance Gender - Gender and Education Education - Primary Education Education - Education For All
    Date: 2013–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16765&r=sea
  55. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Access and Equity in Basic Education Teaching and Learning Education - Primary Education Education - Education For All Tertiary Education
    Date: 2013–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18694&r=sea
  56. By: Keisuke Kawata (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University); Leksay Keoyasan (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University); Yuichiro Yoshida (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University)
    Abstract: This paper quantitatively examines evidences on expenditure growth in Laos between 1997 and 2008 using the 1997 and 2008 Lao Expenditure and Consumption Survey data (LECS2 and LECS4). Results show that real per-capita expenditure of Lao PDR has increased by 802% during the period. Disaggregating into two groups we find that rural households have slightly higher real per-capita-expenditure growth rate than those of urban household with the rates being 832% and 777% respectively. Estimation of per-capita expenditure regressions for each of these two time points consistently show that education and village endowments have positive impact on per-capita expenditure. We then conduct decomposition a-la Neumark (1988) to find that vast majority of improvement is due to the growth in returns to social factors, not the growth in social factors themselves.
    Keywords: Laos, Development, Expenditure, Neumark decomposition
    Date: 2014–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hir:idecdp:4-5&r=sea
  57. By: Sainan Jin (Singapore Management University, School of Economics); Liangjun Su (Singapore Management University, School of Economics); Yonghui Zhang (School of Economics, Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: In this paper we propose a class of nonparametric tests for anomaly effects in empirical asset pricing models in the framework of nonparametric panel data models with interactive fixed effects. Our approach has two prominent features: one is the adoption of nonparametric functional form to capture the anomaly effects of some asset-specific characteristics, and the other is the flexible treatment of both observed/constructed and unobserved common factors. By estimating the unknown factors, betas, and nonparametric function simultaneously, our setup is robust to misspecification of functional form and common factors and avoids the well-known “error-in-variable” (EIV) problem associated with the commonly used two-pass (TP) procedure. We apply our method to a publicly available data set and divide the full sample into three subsamples. Our empirical results show that size and book-to-market ratio affect the excess returns of portfolios significantly for the full sample and two of the three subsamples in all five factor pricing models under investigation. In particular, nonparametric component is significantly different from zero, meaning that the constructed common factors (e.g., small minus big (SMB) and high minus low (HML)) cannot capture all the size and book-to-market ratio effects. We also find strong evidence of nonlinearity of the anomaly effects in the Fama-French 3-factor model and the augmented 4-factor and 5-factor models in the full sample and two of the three subsamples.
    Keywords: Anomaly effects; Asset pricing; CAPM; Common factors; EIV; Fama-French three-factor; Interactive fixed effects; Nonparametric panel data model; Sieve method; Specification test
    JEL: C14 C33 C58
    Date: 2014–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:09-2014&r=sea
  58. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Transport Economics Policy and Planning Industry - Common Carriers Industry Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - E-Business Transport and Trade Logistics Transport Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Date: 2014–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18739&r=sea
  59. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Poverty Reduction - Poverty Impact Evaluation Water Supply and Sanitation - Sanitation and Sewerage Economic Theory and Research Environment - Coastal and Marine Environment Poverty Reduction - Poverty Reduction Strategies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16594&r=sea
  60. By: Junhui Qian (Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University); Liangjun Su (Singapore Management University, School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper we consider the problem of determining the number of structural changes in multiple linear regression models via group fused Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator ). We show that with probability tending to one our method can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks and the estimated break dates are sufficiently close to the true break dates. We obtain estimates of the regression coefficients via post Lasso and establish the asymptotic distributions of the estimates of both break ratios and regression coefficients. We also propose and validate a datadriven method to determine the tuning parameter. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the proposed method works well in finite samples. We illustrate the use of our method with a predictive regression of the equity premium on fundamental information.
    Keywords: Change point; Fused Lasso; Group Lasso; Penalized least squares; Structural change
    JEL: C13 C22
    Date: 2014–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:06-2014&r=sea
  61. By: Liangjun Su (Singapore Management University, School of Economics); Zhentao Shi (Department of Economics, Yale University); Peter C. B. Phillips (Yale University, University of Auckland, University of Southampton and Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper provides a novel mechanism for identifying and estimating latent group structures in panel data using penalized regression techniques. We focus on linear models where the slope parameters are heterogeneous across groups but homogenous within a group and the group membership is unknown. Two approaches are considered — penalized least squares (PLS) for models without endogenous regressors, and penalized GMM (PGMM) for models with endogeneity. In both cases we develop a new variant of Lasso called classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) that serves to shrink individual coefficients to the unknown group-specific coefficients. C-Lasso achieves simultaneous classification and consistent estimation in a single step and the classification exhibits the desirable property of uniform consistency. For PLS estimation C-Lasso also achieves the oracle property so that group-specific parameter estimators are asymptotically equivalent to infeasible estimators that use individual group identity information. For PGMM estimation the oracle property of C-Lasso is preserved in some special cases. Simulations demonstrate good finite-sample performance of the approach both in classification and estimation. An empirical application investigating the determinants of cross-country savings rates finds two latent groups among 56 countries, providing empirical confirmation that higher savings rates go in hand with higher income growth.
    Keywords: Classification; Cluster analysis; Convergence club; Dynamic panel; Group Lasso; High dimensionality; Oracle property; Panel structure model; Parameter heterogeneity; Penalized least squares; Penalized GMM
    JEL: C33 C36 C38 C51
    Date: 2014–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:07-2014&r=sea

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