nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2014‒07‒21
seventeen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Stakeholder Engagement in Preparing Investment Plans for the Climate Investment Funds: Case Studies from Asia - Second Edition By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  2. Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific By Raphael A Auer; Aaron Mehrotra
  3. One currency, two markets: the renminbi’s growing influence in Asia-Pacific By Chang Shu; Dong He; Xiaoqiang Cheng
  4. Growth Strategy with Social Capital and Physical Capital- Theory and Evidence: the Case of Vietnam By Cuong Le Van; Anh Ngoc Nguyen; Ngoc-Minh Nguyen
  5. Technology Upgrades in Emerging Equity Markets: Effects on Liquidity, Trading Activity and Volatility By M. Kemal Yilmaz; Orhan Erdem; Veysel Eraslan; Evren Arik
  6. The Role of Sri Lanka in Enhancing Connectivity between South Asia and Southeast Asia By Dushni Weerakoon; Nipuni Perera
  7. Affluence and emission trade-offs: evidence from Indonesian household carbon footprint By M. Iqbal Irfany
  8. The Impact of Rainfall on Rice Output in Indonesia By David I. Levine; Dean Yang
  9. Green Pricing in the Asia Pacific: An Idea Whose Time Has Come? By Paul J. Burke
  10. Does Export Yield Productivity and Markup Premiums? Evidence from the Japanese manufacturing industry By KATO Atsuyuki
  12. Constraints, Determinants of SME Innovation, and the Role of Government Support By OUM Sothea; Narjoko Dionisius; Charles HARVIE
  13. A Note on Nominal and Real Devaluation in Laos By Kyophilavong, Phouphet; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Salah Uddin, Gazi
  14. Does oil price uncertainty transmit to the Thai stock market? By Jiranyakul, Komain
  15. Multinational’s global open innovation activities in emerging markets: A case of Japanese firms’collaborations with national research institutes in Thailand By Motohashi, Kazuyuki
  16. Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño By Paul Cashin; Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi
  17. The Nexus Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Lao PDR By Kyophilavong, Phouphet; Salah Uddin, Gazi; Shahbaz, Muhammad

  1. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Regional and Sustainable Development Department, ADB); ;
    Abstract: Since the inception of the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has participated in the preparation of 15 investment plans covering the two main CIF funds, the Clean Technology Fund (CTF) and the Strategic Climate Fund (SCF). The SCF comprises three separate programs—the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR), the Scaling Up Renewable Energy Program (SREP), and the Forest Investment Program (FIP). This study, which is part of a wider review of CIF experiences in ADB, uses a case study approach to examine how stakeholder engagement was carried out in the preparation of investment plans in Cambodia, Nepal, and the Philippines, with reference to the guidance provided by ADB and CIF in stakeholder participation.
    Keywords: adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, climate investment funds, low-carbon, climate-resilient development, stakeholder participation, engagement, cambodia, indonesia, nepal, philippines, public consultation, consultation, adaptation, climate change, public opinion, CIF, steering group
    Date: 2013–07
  2. By: Raphael A Auer; Aaron Mehrotra
    Abstract: Some observers argue that increased real integration has led to greater comovement of prices internationally. We examine the evidence for cross-border price spillovers among economies participating in the pan-Asian cross-border production networks. Starting with country-level data, we find that both producer price and consumer price inflation rates move more closely together between those Asian economies that trade more with one another, ie that share a higher degree of trade intensity. Next, using a novel data set based on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), we examine the importance of the supply chain for cross-border price spillovers at the sectoral level. We document the increasing importance of imported intermediate inputs for economies in the Asia-Pacific region and examine the impact on domestic producer prices of changes in costs of imported intermediate inputs. Our results suggest that real integration through the supply chain matters for domestic price dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region.
    Keywords: globalisation, inflation, Asian manufacturing supply chain, price spillovers
    Date: 2014–04
  3. By: Chang Shu; Dong He; Xiaoqiang Cheng
    Abstract: This study presents evidence of the renminbi’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The CNH market – the offshore renminbi foreign exchange market in Hong Kong SAR – is found to exert an effect on Asian currencies that is distinct from that of the onshore (CNY) market. Changes in the RMB/USD rates in both markets have a statistically and economically significant impact on changes in Asian currency rates against the US dollar, even after controlling for other major currency moves and the transmission of China’s monetary policy to the region. The continuing growth of the offshore renminbi market suggests that the influence of the CNH market is rising, but how long the independent impact will last will likely depend on China’s progress in liberalising its capital account. The findings also suggest that China’s regional influence is increasingly transmitted through financial channels.
    Keywords: renminbi internationalisation, renminbi impact, offshore markets
    Date: 2014–03
  4. By: Cuong Le Van (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, VCREME - VanXuan Center of Research in Economics, Management and Environment - VanXuan Center of Research in Economics, Management and Environment); Anh Ngoc Nguyen (DEPOCEN - Development and Policies Research Center); Ngoc-Minh Nguyen (DEPOCEN - Development and Policies Research Center)
    Abstract: We study the impact of social capital in both simple theoretical and empirical model with the main assumption is the price of physical capital is a decreasing function of social capital. In our theoretical model, there exists a critical value such that firm will not invest in social capital if its saving is lower than the critical value and otherwise. Moreover, the output depends positively and non-linearly on the social capital. Our empirical model that captures the impact of physical capital, human capital, and social capital using the database from Survey of Small and Medium Scale Manufacturing Enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam 2011, confirms the conclusions of the theoretical model.
    Keywords: Social capital; optimal growth
    Date: 2014–02
  5. By: M. Kemal Yilmaz; Orhan Erdem; Veysel Eraslan; Evren Arik
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of technological changes on selected stock market qualities such as liquidity, turnover and volatility. The data set includes daily data of 361 stocks from 10 emerging market exchanges, namely Colombia, Indonesia, Johannesburg, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Thailand. The analysis is based mainly on the comparison between the pre- and post-launch of a new trading platform for equity markets. A panel data regression analysis shows that technological upgrade decreases the bid-ask spread and increases trading activity. In other words, launching a more sophisticated trading platform contributes to the overall efficiency of the market. Moreover, we find that, in some exchanges, an important upgrade in the technological infrastructure of the exchange decreases its level of volatility.
    Keywords: Market Microstructure, Technological Upgrade, High Frequency Trading, Emerging Markets, Liquidity
    Date: 2014–06
  6. By: Dushni Weerakoon (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Nipuni Perera
    Abstract: Improving physical connectivity between South and Southeast Asia has long been recognized as a key element in promoting greater trade and investment linkages within the region. As an island economy, Sri Lanka’s regional connectivity has been mainly through its main sea port in Colombo, a transshipment hub port for South Asia. Investments to expand capacity at Colombo port are underway as part of Sri Lanka’s renewed efforts to develop its infrastructure following the long internal separatist conflict that ended in 2009. Despite significant improvements in physical infrastructure connectivity, Sri Lanka has made only limited headway in strengthening its trade and investment links with the rest of the region. Moreover, the country has seen a sharp decline in its overall exports-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio, which is worrying in view of the growing external debt financing of many large infrastructure projects through state-led investment initiatives. Thus, Sri Lanka needs to focus on two priority areas : engaging private investment in infrastructure by strengthening the country’s institutional and regulatory environment; and implementing a more strategic trade policy geared to enhance regional integration efforts.
    Keywords: South Asia, Southeast Asia, Sri Lanka, trade and investment linkages, physical infrastructure connectivity, Regional Integration
    JEL: F15
    Date: 2014–06
  7. By: M. Iqbal Irfany (Georg-August-University Göttingen)
    Abstract: The objectives of this study are to analyze the household carbon footprint pattern in Indonesia and to analyze the determinants of the growing carbon footprint in this emerging economy. To measure the household emissions, we combine national input-output, emission database to generate sectoral CO2 emission intensities and matched these intensities with two waves of national expenditure surveys from 2005 and 2009. We then use this household CO2 emission for investigating the drivers of the rise in emissions from the micro perspective. Comparing CO2 intensities, the results show that transportation, fuel-light, are the two most intensive emitting sectors in Indonesia. We also found a significant difference of household carbon emission comparing between per capita expenditure level, region, and education. Regression analysis suggests that expenditure is the main determinant of household emission. Although other household characteristics determine the variation of emission, it is shown that varying affluent level differs significantly in term of carbon footprint. The decomposition analysis confirms that changes in emission are dominantly contributed by the rise of expenditure comparing between household level and over the two periods. Expenditure elasticities analysis suggest that the rise of household emission is mainly caused by general volume increase in overall household consumption, and not by shifting the share of expenditure amongst consumption basket.
    Keywords: carbon footprint; household; Indonesia
    JEL: O12 O13 Q54 Q56 Q41
    Date: 2014–07–04
  8. By: David I. Levine; Dean Yang
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of weather variation on agricultural output in Indonesia by examining the impact of local rainfall shocks on rice output at the district level. Our analysis makes use of local meteorological data on rainfall in combination with government administrative data on district-level rice output in the 1990s. We find that deviations from mean local rainfall are positively associated with district-level rice output. 10% higher rainfall leads metric tons of rice output to be 0.4% higher on average. The impact of rainfall on rice output occurs contemporaneously (in the same calendar year), rather than with a lag. These results suggest that researchers should be justified in interpreting higher rainfall as a positive contemporaneous shock to local economic conditions in Indonesia.
    JEL: O13
    Date: 2014–07
  9. By: Paul J. Burke (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)
    Abstract: This article discusses the potential benefits of an enhanced use of externality pricing schemes in the Asia Pacific. Prices on emissions and congestion could ameliorate the negative effects of underpriced resource use, be pro-poor, and improve fiscal capacities. The main implementation challenges are political and institutional. Lessons are drawn from recent experiences in environmental taxation and the removal of fossil fuel subsidies.
    Keywords: pricing, taxation, externalities, green, Asia Pacific
    JEL: H23 Q53 Q56 Q58 R48 R41
    Date: 2014–06
  10. By: KATO Atsuyuki
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between productivity, markups, and development of foreign markets using a rich firm-level dataset of the Japanese manufacturing industry during the period 2000-2010. Using estimates of firm-specific productivity and markups, we investigate if the development of foreign markets through exports has a premium for their market performance. Our study confirmed that exports have significant productivity and markup premiums. In addition, export premiums vary across the destination markets. Exports to Asia show a significant productivity premium while other markets do not. For markups, exports to Asia and North America have a significant premium. These findings imply that both productivity and markups should be considered in assessing the development of foreign markets.
    Date: 2014–07
  11. By: Monica Martinez-Bravo (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)
    Abstract: The extension of mass education not only affects the level of education of the labor force, but also raises the average education of local politicians. This paper investigates the impact of a large program of school construction in Indonesia on local governance and public good provision. By using a panel dataset of 10,000 villages and exploiting the staggered timing of local elections, I isolate the effects driven by changes in local governance. The results suggest that the school construction program led to important increases in the provision of public goods. Furthermore, the results are heterogeneous across villages: public goods experienced stronger increases in villages where there was a particular demand for that type of public good. I provide evidence that the results are driven by the increase in the level of education of the village head, which suggests that the level of human capital of local politicians is a key ingredient of public good provision in developing countries.
    Keywords: Political leaders, education, local elections.
    JEL: D72 H75 O12 P16
    Date: 2014–07
  12. By: OUM Sothea (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Narjoko Dionisius (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Charles HARVIE (Centre for Small Business and Regional Research School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Australia)
    Abstract: This paper provides an empirical analysis of potential constraints to SMEs upgrading their capability to innovate, and assesses the effectiveness of government support in overcoming these constraints. The justification for government support is that market failures can hinder SMEs’ access to information, finance, technology, and human resources. This paper focuses on the impact of the perceived effectiveness of government support through business development services in terms of providing: (i) training; (ii) counselling and advice; (iii) technology development and transfer; (iv) information; (v) business linkages; (vi) financing; and (vii) a conducive business environment. The effectiveness of this support is evaluated against the ability of SMEs to innovate.
    Keywords: : SMEs, constraints, innovation, government support, and developing Asia.
    JEL: L20 L25
    Date: 2014–10
  13. By: Kyophilavong, Phouphet; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Salah Uddin, Gazi
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate whether or not nominal devaluation leads to real devaluation in Laos by using the ARDL bounds testing and the Granger causality test in a VECM framework. Our empirical evidence shows that nominal devaluation Granger causes real devaluation in short run and long run. This finding implies that nominal devaluation leads to real devaluation.
    Keywords: Nominal devaluation, real devaluation, Laos
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2014–07–09
  14. By: Jiranyakul, Komain
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of oil price volatility (uncertainty) on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Monthly data from May 1987 to December 2013 are applied to the two-stage procedure. In the first step, a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model is estimated to obtain the volatility series of stock market index and oil price. In the second step, the pairwise Granger causality tests are performed to determine the direction of volatility transmission between oil to stock markets. It this found that movement in real oil price does not adversely affect real stock market return, but stock price volatility does affect real stock return. In addition, there exists a positive one-directional volatility transmission running from oil to stock market. These findings give important implications for risk management and policy measures.
    Keywords: Real stock price, real oil price, volatility transmission, emerging markets
    JEL: C22 G15 Q40
    Date: 2014–06
  15. By: Motohashi, Kazuyuki
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the management of multinational’s R&D in emerging economies, taking the case of Japanese firms’ R&D collaboration with NTSDA, Thai national research institute. A detail interview survey for two cases, Polyplastics, an engineering plastics manufacturer and Shiseido, a cosmetic company, both working together with NSTDA for R&D, reveals that there exist significant variations of motivations, scopes and outcomes of such activities. Home base exploiting type activities (Polyplastics) are easier to manage as a natural extension to home country activities, but it is important to motivate its partner to collaborate, since only exploiting local resources may not be sustainable for long time. While, home base augmenting type activities (Shiseido), a local activity has to be well coordinated in global operation at headquarter. In addition, it is difficult to see a short term benefit from such explorative activities, so that top management support becomes important to sustain such activities for certain amount of time.
    Keywords: : Multinational R&D, Thailand, open innovation, national innovation system
    JEL: F23 O32
    Date: 2014–01
  16. By: Paul Cashin; Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi
    Abstract: This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through third-markets. The results of our Global VAR model of the world economy indicate that the economic consequences of El Niño shocks differ across countries. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries, the El Niño shock has a growth-enhancing effect; some (for instance the U.S.) due to direct effects while others (for instance the European region) through positive spillovers from major trading partners. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run in inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño episodes.
    Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), interconnectedness, global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, El Niño, oil and non-fuel commodity prices.
    JEL: C32 E17 E32 F44 F47 Q11 Q41
    Date: 2014–06–30
  17. By: Kyophilavong, Phouphet; Salah Uddin, Gazi; Shahbaz, Muhammad
    Abstract: The relationship between financial development and economic growth is not conclusive in existing economics literature. The aim of this paper is to test two hypotheses: ‘supply-leading’ hypothesis and ‘demand-following’ hypothesis, using Laos time series data. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is used to carry out this task. Our results confirm the presence of feedback effect between both variables. Financial development promotes economic growth and in resulting, economic growth leads financial development.
    Keywords: Finance-growth nexus, ARDL approach, Granger causality, Laos
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2014–07–10

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