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on South East Asia |
| By: | Marcel Aloy (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS); Gilles de Truchis (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS); Gilles Dufrénot (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS); Benjamin Keddad (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to provide evidence of “shift-volatility” transmission in the East Asian equity markets. By shift-volatility, we mean the volatility shifts from a low level to a high level, corresponding respectively to tranquil and crisis periods. We examine the interdependence of equity volatilities between Hong-Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and the United States. Our main issue is whether shift-volatility needs to be considered as a regional phenomenon, or from a more global perspective. We find that the timing/spans of high volatility regimes correspond adequately to years historically documented as those of crises (the Asian crisis and the years following the 2008 crisis). Moreover, we suggest different indicators that could be useful to guide the investors in their arbitrage behavior in the different regimes: the duration of each state, the sensitivity of the volatility in a market following a change in the volatility in another market. Finally, we are able to identify which market can be considered as leading markets in terms of volatility. |
| Keywords: | Regime shifts, Equity Volatility, East Asia, TVPMS |
| JEL: | R31 G15 C32 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1402&r=sea |
| By: | Samarakoon, Sujani; Parinduri, Rasyad |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether education empowers women. We exploit an exogenous variation in education induced by a longer school year in Indonesia in 1978, which fits a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. We find education reduces the number of live births, increases contraceptive use, and promotes reproductive health practices. However, except for a few outcome measures, we do not find evidence that education improves women's decision making authority within households, asset ownership, or community participation. These results suggest that, to some extent, education does empower women in middle-income countries like Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | education, women’s empowerment, regression discontinuity design, Southeast Asia, Indonesia |
| JEL: | I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:53083&r=sea |
| By: | Reardon, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Myanmar faces a set of well-known challenges and problems, both in the overall economy and in rural areas in general and in agriculture. But Myanmar is also in one of the most blessed situations on the planet to expect rapid growth and poverty alleviation: it is next to (literally surrounded by) the fastest growing and largest food markets in the entire world, in China, India, Southeast Asia, and eventually Bangladesh, to name a few; the trade opportunities these represent are with only few historical parallels. Myanmar is in the best position to fuel rural development from regional trade, on the planet. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcpb:162437&r=sea |
| By: | Shinozaki, Shigehiro (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Asia’s bank-centered financial systems require the reduced supply-demand gap in lending as a core policy pillar to improve small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) access to finance. Meanwhile, the diversification of financing modalities beyond conventional bank lending is another key policy pillar to better serve various financing needs of SMEs and expand their financial accessibility. The rapid growth of emerging Asia is generating SMEs’ long-term funding needs and requires robust capital markets as an alternative channel for providing their growth capital. The G20 Leaders also addressed the importance of promoting long-term financing for SMEs in the context of investment. The development of capital markets that SMEs can tap is one of the policy challenges under the pillar of diversified financing modalities, which requires more sophisticated and innovative institutional arrangements in order to respond effectively to their real needs. This paper explores the potential of capital market financing for SMEs in emerging Asia, reviewing the challenges of existing SME capital markets and assessing demands on SMEs, regulators, policy makers, market organizes, securities firms, and investors for developing an SME market, based on the findings from intensive surveys. Given the responses to the national growth strategies and the cross-cutting issues of global policy agendas such as climate change, energy efficiency, and green finance, the potential for developing the exercise equity market and the social capital market in Asia is also explored in this paper. |
| Keywords: | Financial inclusion; innovative financing; long-term financing; SME capital markets; SME finance |
| JEL: | F36 G28 G29 |
| Date: | 2014–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbrei:0121&r=sea |
| By: | Carol Newman (Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin and Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); John Rand (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Theodore Talbot (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Finn Tarp (UNU-WIDER, Helsinki and Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and the productivity of domestic firms. Using a specially designed survey on a sample of over 7,500 manufacturing firms in Vietnam we uncover some of the mechanisms that explain productivity spillovers from FDI through vertical linkages along the supply chain. Our results suggest that domestic firms experience more productivity spillovers through forward linkages from foreign-input suppliers to domestic input users than through backward linkages from foreign customers to domestic producers of inputs. Productivity externalities from upstream sectors are associated with joint venture foreign investors while downstream sectors experience direct technology transfers from upstream wholly foreign owned investors. Spillovers from FDI through backward linkages are also detected but only when competition from imported intermediates is controlled for and are associated with innovations and technology investments made by firms. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, productivity spillovers, technology transfers, absorptive capacity, Vietnam |
| JEL: | D22 F21 O12 O3 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp440&r=sea |
| By: | Israel, Danilo C.; Briones, Roehlano M. |
| Abstract: | This study examines "choke points" in the supply chain of two selected commodity groups that are of interest to the ASEAN region; within the HS15 group the study focuses on crude coconut oil (CNO); for HS03 the study covers fish and crustacean, mollusks, and other aquatic invertebrates (HS 03). For CNO, no major choke points have been identified from mill site to export stages; cost and delay factors can be found at the farm to mill stage, namely low farm productivity, poor postharvest practices (leading to low quality of copra), and inefficiencies in marketing to the mill. Meanwhile for fisheries, several choke points have been identified, namely: i) domestic road conditions (quality, vehicle capacity, quantity); ii) interisland shipping (high cost, inadequate service); iii) conditions in some ports (inadequate; a weak link in the cold chain); iv) compliance with SPS regulations; and v) certified laboratories (inadequate number). The study recommends specific types of road investments, competition policy in domestic shipping (both CNO and fisheries), industry restructuring in the case of coconut, and SPS measures in the case of fisheries. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, Philippines, logistics, connectivity, agriculture supply chain, choke points |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2014-07&r=sea |
| By: | Roggemann, Hanne; Myriam, Hadnes; Andreas, Landmann |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of mutual support in case of financial losses within a multi-ethnical society in Vietnam by using an experimental approach. We test for the effects of ethnic discrimination with regards to risk sharing by conducting the Solidarity Game based on Selten & Ockenfels (1998). We find no evidence for ethnic discrimination between the groups. But, we can show remarkable differences in behavior when it comes to mutual support in times of idiosyncratic shocks where the richer group showed a rather altruistic behavior of mutual support towards the poorer and the poorer group based their decisions in the experimental lab on past real life experiences. -- |
| JEL: | C91 N35 D19 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79716&r=sea |
| By: | Israel, Danilo C. |
| Abstract: | This study assessed the likely economic, distributional, and fisheries resource impacts of a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between the Philippines and European Union (EU) on the fisheries sector of the former. The study used secondary data from institutional sources and results and findings of past studies. Among others, the study found that a) the elimination of tariffs will likely increase fisheries outputs and exports as well as help reduce poverty in the fisheries sector and the general population; b) the elimination of tariffs will likely diversify the currently limited country destinations and number of exported fisheries products of the Philippines to the EU; c) other than tariffs, there are nontariff measures (NTMs) that significantly impede freer flow of fisheries products from the Philippines to the EU that need to be considered; d) some participants in the Philippine fisheries sector will gain from an FTA while others will lose but the net benefits to the sector and economy is not known; and e) increase in fisheries exports due to the FTA will likely worsen fisheries resource overexploitation although the inflow of cheaper imported fish will tend to reduce the overexploitation. The study concludes, among others, that if a Philippines-EU FTA materializes it should not only reduce or eliminate tariffs in fisheries products but also the NTMs. It also argued that the government should provide safety nets for the fisheries participants who are going to be disadvantaged by the FTA and implement the needed resource and environmental management that will allow sustainable exploitation of fisheries resources even with increased trade. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, fisheries trade, Philippine fisheries sector, Philippines-EU free trade agreement, fisheries tariffs, fisheries nontariff measures, economic, distributional, and resource impacts |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2014-03&r=sea |
| By: | Kalinowski, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the understanding of the diversity of capitalism by combining approaches from comparative political economy and development studies, notably developmental state theory. We show that different types of capitalism react differently to global shocks and offer some support for the classic varieties of capitalism argument that external pressure leads to the reinforcement of historically evolved institutions. Moreover, we make several departures from established theories on the variety of capitalism, namely, their Eurocentric bias, their under-theorization of the role of the state, and the methodological conservative bias of institutionalist approaches. At the empirical level, this paper studies the reaction of East Asian countries (China, Japan and Korea) to the global financial crisis with a focus on fiscal stimulus packages that were implemented from 2008 to 2010. Unlike in the West, where a (short-lived) revival of Keynesianism could be observed, East Asian governments implemented large fiscal stimulus packages with strong elements of industrial policies. This paper argues that the size and character of fiscal stimulus packages can be explained by a path dependency of developmental state capitalism. In addition, the paper examines the substantial changes in the transformation from an old-style developmental state to a neo-developmental state. -- Dieses Diskussionspapier trägt zur Diskussion über unterschiedliche Spielarten des Kapitalismus bei, indem Theorieansätze aus den Bereichen Vergleichende Politische Ökonomie und Entwicklungstheorie miteinander verbunden werden. Ich stelle in diesem Papier dar, wie verschiedene Spielarten des Kapitalismus unterschiedlich auf den externen Schock der Weltfinanz- und Wirtschaftskrise seit 2008 reagiert haben. Das Papier stützt in gewissem Maße die Behauptung der Debatte über die varieties of capitalism, dass externe Herausforderungen tendenziell zu einer Stärkung historisch gewachsener institutioneller Arrangements führen. Gleichzeitig versucht der Beitrag, einige Schwachstellen der bisherigen Forschung zur Diversität von Kapitalismus zu überwinden - insbesondere den eurozentrischen Ansatz, die mangelnde Konzeptualisierung der Rolle des Staates und die zu enge Auslegung des Begriffs der Pfadabhängigkeit. Auf der empirischen Ebene untersucht dieses Diskussionspapier das Krisenmanagement ostasiatischer Länder (China, Japan und Südkorea) seit 2008. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf der Fiskalpolitik und der Implementierung von Konjunkturpaketen. Im Unterschied zum (kurzlebigen) Revival keynesianischer Nachfragepolitik im Westen lässt sich in Asien ein Rückgriff auf Elemente der Infrastruktur- und Industriepolitik beobachten. Diese Stärkung von Institutionen des klassischen ostasiatischen Entwicklungsstaates zeigt eine pfadabhängige Entwicklung an. Gleichzeitig lassen sich jedoch auch Elemente des Wandels feststellen, und das Papier beschreibt diese pfadabhängige Transformation des ursprünglichen Ostasiatischen Entwicklungsstaates in einen Entwicklungsstaat der zweiten Generation. |
| Keywords: | Comparative political economy,international political economy,developmental state,fiscal policies,varieties of capitalism,East Asia |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmeg:spiii2013501&r=sea |
| By: | Israel, Danilo C.; Briones, Roehlano M. |
| Abstract: | This study analyzed the interactions between natural disasters and household poverty and discussed the coping strategies used by households in response to natural disasters in the Philippines. It used data from the 2011 CBMS Household Profile Survey for Pasay City, Metro Manila and results of relevant past studies. The study found that a) there are existing analytical frameworks for the study of the interactions between natural disasters, household poverty, and household coping strategies; b) some empirical studies have been done in the Philippines analyzing the aforementioned interactions; c) relevant past studies generally point to the negative effect of natural disasters on household income and subsequently on household poverty; and d) past studies also showed that households practice several coping mechanisms to address the effects of natural disasters. Furthermore, based on own estimation done, the study found that the occurrence and frequency of typhoons and/or floods in Pasay City, Metro Manila have significant and negative effects on household per capita income. It concluded that for Pasay City and other similarly situated urban areas in the country, natural disasters have a negative impact on household income and consequently on household poverty. The study proposed future studies that can be conducted on the interactions between natural disasters and household poverty in the Philippines. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, natural disasters, floods, typhoons, household poverty, household coping strategies, Pasay City, Metro Manila |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2014-06&r=sea |
| By: | Chunding Li; Jing Wang; John Whalley |
| Abstract: | China has been increasingly active on the regional trade agreement front over since WTO Accession occurred in 2001. These agreements, unlike the US and EU cases, follow no template form of agreement but vary substantially one among the others and are in part an attempt to customize agreements to partner prior agreements. There are presently 12 concluded agreements, 6 under negotiation, and four others under consideration. These concluded are in the main with smaller countries. Those in prospect are with major trading areas (US, Japan, Korea, and India). All are driven in part by China’s needs for export access to fuel continuing export lead growth, but other elements enter including using regional agreements to offset unwelcome elements of multilateral arrangements (such as the non-market economy labelling), and attempting to put in place via RTA building blocks an Asian trading hub. Outstanding issues not centrally addressed by these agreements include anti-dumping duties, and investment and competition issues. |
| JEL: | F15 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19853&r=sea |
| By: | La Viña, Antonio G.M.; Barcenas, Lai-Lynn Angelica B.; Lesaca, Carla; Bobadilla, Liezel |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the environmental aspects of a potential Philippines-European Union Free Trade Agreement (PH-EU FTA). Potential environmental issues in the negotiation of such an FTA (if at all undertaken) are identified to better prepare the Philippine negotiating panel and equip them with information and analysis to make well-informed positions on such issues. It looks at the interaction between the multilateral trade regime--the World Trade Organization (WTO) principally--and multilateral environmental agreements, reviews the Philippine approach to environment-related trade measures, and looks at Philippine practice and implementation of environmental agreements from a trade perspective. EU policies on trade, environment, and development are also discussed to anticipate what could be EU positions during the FTA negotiations with the Philippines. The paper ends with the following conclusions and recommendations: (1) The EU will most likely push for more harmonization of the FTA provisions with WTO rules. On the sustainable development front, the EU would push for including sustainable development principles into all levels and in cross-cutting policy areas; (2) The Philippines can expect the EU to come up with a strong position on sustainable development, expecting the Philippines to make concrete commitments to principles of sustainable development; (3) Philippine sustainable development goals are not inconsistent with the EU. However, the Philippines in the FTA negotiations would be best served to emphasize poverty reduction and financial and technical support from its EU partners. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, trade and sustainable development, multilateral environmental agreements, trade and environment, Philippine practice of international environmental law, conflict between trade and environment |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2014-08&r=sea |
| By: | Manzano, George N. |
| Abstract: | In drawing up the negotiating stance of the Philippines in light of the Philippines-European Union (PH-EU) free trade agreement (FTA), it is important to articulate its offensive and defensive interests. Indications of the offensive and defensive interests can be gleaned from standard measures of competitiveness as well as complementarities of the partners. However, in operational terms, negotiators would require analysis that is carried out at more specific tariff levels. This paper proposes the framework to generate different offensive and defensive lists of commodities in the non-agricultural sector as input to the Philippine negotiators. Because the criteria that is used in generating the offensive and defensive lists is purely economic in nature, the negotiators are expected to weigh in the political and non-economic criteria to determine the final lists for negotiations in the PH-EU FTA. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, trade, free trade agreements (FTAs), trade policy, Philippine manufacturing, offensive interest |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2014-04&r=sea |
| By: | Eliane El Badaoui; Eric Strobl; Frank Walsh |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of internal migration on local labour markets in Thailand. Using an instrumental variable approach based on weather and distance we estimate an exogenous measure of the net migration inflow into each region. Our results show that instrumenting for the possible endogeneity of net inward migration is crucial to the analysis. The results suggest that wages of low skill male workers are highly flexible with substantial adjustments in hours worked and weekly wages in response to short term changes in labour supply. We find no effect on high skilled workers. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration, Labour markets, Thailand |
| JEL: | O15 J10 |
| Date: | 2014–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-30&r=sea |
| By: | Hela Miniaoui; Anissa Chaibi |
| Abstract: | The present study empirically investigates the technical efficiency of takaful industry operations in Malaysia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was employed to estimate the technical efficiency of using Constant Returns to Scale (CRS) and Variable Return to Scale (VRS) during the period 2006- 2009. The study reveals that takaful companies operating in GCC countries are more efficient than Malaysian operators that are encouraged to have aggressive marketing and wider distribution channels to capture more demand. |
| Keywords: | Takaful Industry, DEA, Efficiency, Malaysia, GCC |
| JEL: | C7 D8 |
| Date: | 2014–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-14&r=sea |
| By: | Didier, Tatiana; Schmukler, Sergio L. |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the major trends in financial development in Asia since the early 1990s and the spillovers to firms. It compares Asia with advanced and emerging countries and uses both aggregate and disaggregate indicators. Financial systems in Asia remain less developed than in advanced countries but more developed than in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Bond and stock markets play a larger role and institutional investors have gained importance. Nonetheless, capital-raising activity has not expanded. A few large companies capture most of the issuances. Many secondary markets remain illiquid. The public sector captures a significant share of bond markets. The largest advancements in Asia occurred in China and India. But still in these countries, few large companies use capital markets to expand and grow, becoming much larger than nonuser firms. In sum, Asia's financial systems remain less developed than aggregate measures suggest, with few spillovers to many firms. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Access to Finance,Mutual Funds |
| Date: | 2014–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6761&r=sea |
| By: | Briones, Roehlano M.; Galang, Ivory Myka R. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of a potential Philippines-European Union (EU) free trade agreement (FTA) on the agricultural sector. Static analysis indicates that potential gains to the agricultural sector of the Philippines are limited, primarily owing to the low size of initial agricultural trade with EU (compared to other trading partners), as well as moderate to low tariff and other trade barriers to EU products entering the country. CGE analysis confirms that the overall impact of bilateral tariff elimination leads to an overall increase in agricultural output, accompanied by a decline in price; hence, there is an increase in consumption of agricultural products. Impact on poverty is likewise positive, with improvements biased to the poorer households. By subsector, the largest output gains are projected for seaweeds and sugarcane, with 0.80 percent and 0.50 percent, respectively; increased access on EU markets are favorable for Filipino exporters of seaweeds, other fiber crops, tobacco leaf, forestry, ornamental plants, raw coffee, abaca, and cocoa. Meanwhile, the subsectors that are on the losing side (as shown by declining output) are cattle, raw rubber, chicken, and hogs. Fears about the negative repercussions of a Philippines-EU FTA on the poor turn out to be unfounded. Poverty incidence declines, and more so in rural than in urban areas. The greater decrease in poverty gap and squared poverty gap, compared with poverty incidence, implies that those who belong to households below the poverty threshold get the most benefits. It would seem that expectations of large benefits from a Philippines-EU FTA will not be found in agriculture, but elsewhere. Conversely, the agricultural sector does not face significant harm from a Philippines-EU FTA, even one involving sensitive products. Relaxation of trade barriers to EU even for sensitive products is warranted; not only would consumers gain (though minimally), but such a negotiation stance may serve as a powerful bargaining chip for gaining concessions on other areas. |
| Keywords: | computable general equilibrium (CGE), Philippines, agriculture, free trade area, impact assessment |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2014-05&r=sea |
| By: | Teresa Sastre (Banco de España); Francesca Viani (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Current account imbalances and their sustainability are among the most debated international policy issues. Through the recently designed External Balance Assessment methodology (EBA), the IMF estimates the impact of several countries’ fundamentals and policies on their current account balance, calculates misalignments in their current account position and indicates policy recommendations which, if implemented, should contribute to reducing these imbalances. In this paper, we explore some extensions to the EBA, following two courses. First, we distinguish in current account regressions between countries that are considered safe investment destinations and non-safe economies. Since this distinction is likely to acquire special relevance in periods of global turmoil, we also distinguish between periods of global stress and tranquil times. Second, we embed in EBA regressions variables that drive countries’ external competitiveness. Results show that current account dynamics may be affected by competitiveness factors and differ significantly between safe and non-safe economies, with such differences becoming particularly relevant in turbulent times. These fi ndings suggest that EBA regressions may be overlooking the influence of countries’ safety and competitiveness on external balances. Our alternative misalignment estimations show larger imbalances than those calculated with the EBA for some Asian economies and smaller imbalances for some high-surplus EU countries. |
| Keywords: | current account, current account benchmark, global imbalances, external balance assessment |
| JEL: | F3 F32 F4 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1401&r=sea |
| By: | Vea, Reynaldo B. |
| Abstract: | Four forms of industry-academe linkage activities involve the sharing of economic value arising out of the generation of intellectual property: collaborative research and development (R&D), commissioned research, technology licensing, and the creation of spin-off companies. The Philippines is still in an emergent stage in all these forms. It has concerns that are the same as or similar to those of some other developing ASEAN countries. While there are particular government regulations that can hinder R&D initiatives, the Philippine legal environment, in general, can be considered enabling for the development of R&D capability in both academe and industry and for technology commercialization. The scales of S&T manpower-building programs and R&D expenditures, however, fall short of the potential enabled by legislation. The scales are at least an order of magnitude below those of countries that have successfully embarked on R&D capacity building in the past decades. As a manifestation of this overall weakness, industry-academe collaboration in R&D is also feeble. This paper recommends the implementation of a massive S&T manpower-building program employing the existing systems of science high schools and public and private higher education institutions (HEIs), the creation of a university of science and technology if total current HEI capacity proves inadequate, and the transformation of some existing public universities into research universities. With an overall improvement in R&D capability, R&D collaboration and technology commercialization will also be enhanced. |
| Keywords: | commercialization, research and development (R&D), industry-academe, university-industry, collaboration |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2014-10&r=sea |
| By: | Burca Kizilirmak (Department of Economics, Ankara University); Emel Memis (Department of Economics, Ankara University); Sirin Saracoglu (Department of Economics, METU); Ebru Voyvoda (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to explore the employment effects of changes in manufacturing output resulting from changes in trade patterns over the period 1995-2006. For 30 countries (21 OECD and 9 non-OECD countries) we estimate the changes in embodied labor content due to trade using the factor-content analysis by breaking up the sources of these changes between the trade with the North, the South and China. We also decompose changes in employment into its components as changes within and across sectors. Our results present a net negative impact of trade on total employment in 30 countries over the period of analysis (despite employment gains in 17 countries). In all countries (except for Philippines and Republic of Korea) trade with China has a negative impact on total employment with a stronger negative effect on women’s employment. Employment losses in the South due to surge in imports from China are coupled with declining exports to the North as many countries in the North shift their imports to emerging economies in Asia. Decomposition results indicate that decline in the share of women’s employment is mainly due to shifts between sectors rather than within sector changes. Changes in women’s employment are still highly dependent on the movements in ‘traditional’ manufacturing sectors including food, textiles and wearing apparel. |
| Keywords: | North-South trade, decomposition analysis, factor content analysis, gender bias. |
| JEL: | F16 J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1401&r=sea |
| By: | Eric Strobl; Frank Walsh |
| Abstract: | We show in a monopsony model that in response to a small increase in migration employment will increase in both low productivity non-compliant firms who pay less than and in high productivity firms who pay more than the minimum wage, but will increase by proportionately more in minimum wage firms who are constrained by the labour supply curve. Using data from Thailand we provide evidence that increases in inward net migration are indeed associated with a proportionately greater increase in employment at than below the minimum wage. |
| Date: | 2014–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-28&r=sea |
| By: | Aizenman, Joshua (Asian Development Bank Institute); Jinjarak, Yothin (Asian Development Bank Institute); Marion, Nancy P. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | In the run-up to the financial crisis, the world economy was characterized by large and growing current account imbalances. Since the onset of the crisis, the People’s Republic of China and the United States have rebalanced. As a share of gross domestic product, their current account imbalances are now less than half their pre-crisis levels. For the People’s Republic of China, the reduction in its current account surplus post-crisis suggests a structural change. Panel regressions for a sample of almost 100 economies over the thirty-year period, 1983–2013, confirm that the relationship between current account balances and economic variables such as performance, structure, wealth, and the exchange rate, changed in important ways after the financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | current account imbalances; structural change; financial crisis; PRC; international reserves |
| JEL: | F32 O57 |
| Date: | 2014–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0455&r=sea |
| By: | Jokivuolle, Esa (Bank of Finland Research and Aalto University); Keppo, Jussi (NUS Business School and Risk Management Institute, National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 has given rise to new regulatory initiatives to put restrictions on the size and the term of bankers' pay. We revisit both theoretically and empirically the question of whether these regulations are justified. We model bonuses as a series of sequential call options on profits and show that they provide higher risk-taking incentives the shorter the time is between payments. However, using data on CEO bonuses at the end of 2006 and our model, we find no robust relationship between risk-taking incentives and US banks' stock returns during the global financial crisis. The crisis returns are related negatively to leverage and positively to the market-to-book equity ratio. Our findings suggest that regulating leverage would be more effective than regulating bankers' compensation. |
| Keywords: | banking; bonuses; regulation; compensation |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G28 J33 M52 |
| Date: | 2014–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2014_002&r=sea |
| By: | Jonathan Goncalves (IAE Grenoble - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Grenoble - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II) |
| Abstract: | L'investissement socialement responsable a récemment été défini par l'Association Française de la Gestion Financière (AFG) et le Forum pour l'Investissement Responsable (FIR) comme "un placement visant à concilier performance économique et impact social et environnemental en finançant les entreprises et les entités publiques qui contribuent au développement durable quel que soit leur secteur d'activité. En influençant la gouvernance et le comportement des acteurs, l'ISR favorise une économie responsable". Ainsi, la mise en œuvre d'une stratégie ISR peut revêtir différentes formes, basées sur l'exclusion, la sélection positive ou le dialogue avec les entreprises. Bien qu'il soit encore assez mal maîtrisé, son évolution permanente prouve que c'est une notion qui passionne. Ses origines sont religieuses, d'abord dans les textes fondateurs des religions abrahamiques, puis à travers la communauté religieuse des quakers au 18e siècle aux États-Unis. Premiers à étendre leurs principes moraux à leurs investissements financiers, ils mettent en place les fondations d'un courant qui entrera progressivement dans les mœurs après le conflit vietnamien et l'apartheid en Afrique du Sud, avant de s'octroyer une place de choix dans les marchés du monde entier. Si le marché américain fait figure de pionnier, l'Europe est actuellement la zone la plus dynamique et la plus innovante en la matière. Avec un marché en plein essor, l'ISR se répand sur le vieux continent avec des spécificités culturelles marquées qui rendent le marché très hétérogène. Comme tout phénomène en croissance, il a attiré l'intérêt de nombreux professionnels de la finance, tant les sociétés de gestion ne souhaitant pas manquer le wagon, que les académiques, désireux de comprendre les tenants et aboutissants de ce concept complexe qui suscite les débats. Les études sur le sujet se sont donc multipliées dès 1995, tentant tour à tour de déceler les externalités positives de l'investissement socialement responsable, tant sur la société que sur l'entreprise ou sur la performance retirée par l'investisseur. Les avis divergent au sein de la littérature, certains défendant l'hypothèse d'un effet positif pour l'investisseur, d'autres affirmant son effet négatif et enfin une troisième catégorie supportant l'hypothèse d'un impact nul. Malgré la pléiade d'études, il n'apparaît pour le moment pas de consensus quant à la présence d'un impact clair et récurrent de l'intégration de critères extra-financiers dans les choix d'investissement sur la performance de ce dernier. En effet, les résultats sont divers et variés, bon nombre admettant toutefois que l'investissement socialement responsable jouit de performances similaires à l'investissement classique. Un constat ne semble quant à lui souffrir d'aucune contestation, à savoir l'existence de nombreux cas particuliers et d'une multitude de différences méthodologiques dans les études menées. Dès lors ces fondements posés, nous avons procédé à une étude empirique afin de vérifier la présence d'une différence de performance entre l'ISR et l'investissement traditionnel. Pour ce faire, nous avons étudié un indice ISR ainsi qu'un échantillon de fonds ISR investis dans des actions européennes ou de la zone euro. Nos résultats corroborent l'absence de différence significative entre les performances des deux types d'investissement mais soulèvent une interrogation quant à l'évolution des performances en fonction des cycles économiques. |
| Keywords: | Investissement socialement responsable, finance, développement durable, |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:dumas-00934228&r=sea |