nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2013‒11‒22
eleven papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Asia Chartbook: Crises, Credit and Debt, 1835-2013 By Carmen M. Reinhart
  2. Mapping Crisis-Era Protectionism in the Asia Pacific Region By Evenett, Simon
  3. On the Obituary of Scientific Knowledge Monopoly By Asongu Simplice
  4. Natural disasters and firms in Vietnam By Vu, Tam Bang; Noy, Ilan
  5. Taking Stock : An Update on Vietnam's Recent Economic Developments By World Bank
  6. What Factors Promote Peatland Fire Prevention? Evidence from Central Kalimantan, Indonesia By Yuki Yamamoto, Kenji Takeuchi, Gunnar Kohlin
  7. Regional Stock Market Integration in Singapore: A Multivariate Analysis By Khaled Guesmi; Frédéric Teulon
  8. Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation By Carmen M. Reinhart; Takeshi Tashiro
  9. The Future of the World Trade Organization By Dhar, Biswajit
  10. The developmental contribution of the Offset Agreements: the case of Colombia By LARRÚ, JOSÉ MARÍA
  11. Contribution of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in Country'S H-Index By MARYAM FARHADI; Hadi Salehi; Mohamed Amin Embi; MASOOD FOOLADI; HADI FARHADI; AREZOO AGHAEI CHADEGANI; Nader Ale Ebrahim

  1. By: Carmen M. Reinhart
    Abstract: This Chartbook, which is a companion piece to Carmen M. Reinhart and Takeshi Tashiro (2013) “Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation,” focuses on nine Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Like its predecessor (Reinhart, 2010), it provides a pictorial history, on a country-by-country basis. In addition to public debt, we trace out the evolution of its composition between domestic and external borrowing. Total external debt (public and private) and domestic credit are also included through 2013. This combination gives a broad (but not complete) picture of a country’s indebtedness. It should be ideally supplemented (where relevant) by indicators and trends in the shadow banking sector, as discussed in Shin (2013). It is also timeline of a country’s creditworthiness and financial turmoil (including its history, if any, with IMF programs).
    JEL: E51 F3 G01 H63 N25
    Date: 2013–11
  2. By: Evenett, Simon (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper provides an account of how governments in the Asia and Pacific region have resorted in recent years to discrimination against foreign commercial interests. As in previous systemic economic crises, policymakers altered the mix of discriminatory policies employed. This time around governments of higher income economies in the region frequently softened the budget constraints of firms, offering a range of financial incentives that went beyond high-profile bank sector bailouts. Meanwhile, many developing countries in the Asia and Pacific region relied more on traditional forms of protectionism. The result is a more fragmented set of markets in the region than before the crisis.
    Keywords: protectionism; asia-pacific region; wto; non-tariff measures
    JEL: F13 F53
    Date: 2013–11–14
  3. By: Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun)
    Abstract: The August 15th 2013 Shanghai Academic Rankings of World Universities (ARWU) should leave policy makers wondering about whether the impressive growth experienced by ‘latecomers in the industry\' has moved hand-in-hand with contribution to knowledge by means of scientific publications. Against this background, we model the obituary of scientific knowledge monopoly in 99 countries using 21 catch-up panels from 6 regions (South Asia, Europe & Central Asia, East Asia & the Pacific, Middle East & North Africa, Latin America & the Caribbean and, Sub-Saharan Africa). The findings broadly show that the obituary of scientific knowledge monopoly by developed countries is not in the near-horizon. Advanced nations that have mastered the dynamics of knowledge monopoly will continue to lead the course of knowledge economy. Justifications for the patterns and policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Research & Development; Catch-up; Knowledge Economy
    JEL: F42 O10 O30 O38 O57
    Date: 2013–09
  4. By: Vu, Tam Bang; Noy, Ilan
    Abstract: This paper investigates the consequences of natural disasters on firms in Vietnam over the period 2000 to 2008. We examine the impacts of natural disasters on firm investment and retail sales. We find evidence of adverse effects of disasters on retail sales accompanied by an increase in firm investment of very similar magnitude. There are important differences across geographical units, with the positive impact on investment unique to large cities and provinces with large urban concentrations. We find that more remote rural areas, especially in the North, experience declines in sales without the mitigating boost to investment in disasters’ aftermath. We also show that the decline in sales is not apparently associated with declines in household incomes.
    Keywords: Vietnam, Natural disasters, Investment, Recovery, Retail sales,
    Date: 2013
  5. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Date: 2013–07
  6. By: Yuki Yamamoto, Kenji Takeuchi, Gunnar Kohlin (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University; Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University; Department of Economics, the University of Gothenburg)
    Abstract: This study investigates the factors that promote peatland fire prevention in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. We focus on Kalimantan Forests and Climate Partnership (KFCP) as one of the earliest pilot projects to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD). We estimate an agricultural labor allocation model by combining household survey data and satellite information. The results suggest that the impact of KFCP on household decision making concerning fire prevention at agricultural plots is statistically insignificant. This can be attributed to the fact that the KFCP has not changed the incentives for household fire prevention at individual plots. Economic factors such as the value of labor allocation for rubber production and exogenous income as well as non-economic factors such as traditional mutual assistance, called Goton-royong, are statistically significant. These results suggest that an appropriate design for intervention would be a combination of economic and non-economic incentives to achieve effective REDD policy.
    Date: 2013–11
  7. By: Khaled Guesmi; Frédéric Teulon
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the time-varying integration of the Singapore stock market in the ASEAN-5 region based on a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) with c-DCC-FIAPARCH parameters. This model allows for dynamic changes in the degree of market integration, regional market risk premium, regional exchange-rate risk premium, and domestic market risk premium. Our findings show several interesting facts. First, the time-varying degree of integration in the Singapore market is satisfactorily explained by the level of trade openness and the term premium of US interest rates, which have recently tended to increase, however these markets remain substantially segmented from the world market. Second, the local market risk premium is found to explain a significant proportion of the total risk premium for emerging market returns. Our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity markets. Our results are also of interest for both policymakers and investors, with respect to regional development policies and dedicated portfolio investment strategies in the ASEAN-5 region.
    Keywords: time-varying integration, emerging markets, ICAPM, risk premium, c-DCC-FIAPARCH.
    JEL: C32 F36 G11
    Date: 2013–11–14
  8. By: Carmen M. Reinhart; Takeshi Tashiro
    Abstract: It is well understood that investment serves as a shock absorber at the time of crisis. The duration of the drag on investment, however, is perplexing. For the nine Asian economies we focus on in this study, average investment/GDP is about 6 percentage points lower during 1998-2012 than its average level in the decade before the crisis; if China and India are excluded, the estimated decline exceeds 9 percent. We document how in the wake of crisis home bias in finance usually increases markedly as public and private sectors look inward when external financing becomes prohibitively costly, altogether impossible, or just plain undesirable from a financial stability perspective. Also, previous studies have not made a connection between the sustained reserve accumulation and the persistent and significantly lower levels of investment in the region. Put differently, reserve accumulation involves an official institution (i.e., the central bank) funneling domestic saving abroad and thus competing with domestic borrowers in the market for loanable funds. We suggest a broader definition of crowding out, driven importantly by increased “liability” home bias in finance and by official capital outflows. We present evidence from Asia to support this interpretation.
    JEL: E02 E5 F30 F4 G01 G15 H6
    Date: 2013–11
  9. By: Dhar, Biswajit (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The paper firstly identifies and assesses the key developments in the Doha Round that have contributed to the present stalemate. Secondly, it presents several options that the organization could consider for defining its future work program given the new realities of global economic engagement, especially the emergence of global production networks. Most importantly, the paper assesses the possibility of including new disciplines covering areas that can help the growth of these drivers of global economic integration. Such an initiative could include three sets of issue: trade facilitation measures, an equitable investment regime, and effective disciplines for curbing non-tariff barriers.
    Keywords: WTO; international cooperation; trade; investment; production networks; trade facilitation; non-tariff barriers
    JEL: F13 F53
    Date: 2013–11–12
    Abstract: Colombia is a middle-income country but with a human development constantly threatened by insecurity. This paper analyzes the developmental impact of Offset Agreements (linked to international defence-industry cooperation) implemented by EADS-CASA in Colombia. Compare Malaysia, the Colombian case exemplifies how offset might be an instrument of development through increasing security in recipient countries. In an international context that seeks explicitly how to include the private sector as a developmental agent, and that it is looking for the best practices among public-private partnerships, these agreements can be a good example. The offset agreements executed in Colombia are assessed with high marks in relevance, ownership and alignment, and potential direct and indirect value added, externalities and sustainability. Transparency is the weakest point of the offset. A move towards an international initiative that helps minimize unwanted effects such as unfair competition or corruption is proposed.
    Keywords: Colombia; development; Offset Agreements; public-private-partnerships; technology transmission.
    JEL: F13 H56 O32
    Date: 2013–06
  11. By: MARYAM FARHADI (IAU, Mobarakeh - Islamic Azad University, Mobarakeh - Department of Accounting, Mobarakeh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mobarakeh, Isfahan, Iran); Hadi Salehi (UKM - Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia - Faculty Of Education, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (ukm), Malaysia); Mohamed Amin Embi (UKM - Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia - Faculty Of Education, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (ukm), Malaysia); MASOOD FOOLADI (IAU, Mobarakeh - Islamic Azad University, Mobarakeh - Department of Accounting, Mobarakeh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mobarakeh, Isfahan, Iran); HADI FARHADI (UKM - Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia - School of Psychology and Human Development, Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), Malaysia); AREZOO AGHAEI CHADEGANI (IAU, Mobarakeh - Islamic Azad University, Mobarakeh - Department of Accounting, Mobarakeh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mobarakeh, Isfahan, Iran); Nader Ale Ebrahim (UM - University of Malaya - Department of Engineering Design and Manufacture, Faculty of Engineering, University of Malaya)
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine the effect of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development on country's scientific ranking as measured by H-index. Moreover, this study applies ICT development sub-indices including ICT Use, ICT Access and ICT skill to find the distinct effect of these sub-indices on country's H-index. To this purpose, required data for the panel of 14 Middle East countries over the period 1995 to 2009 is collected. Findings of the current study show that ICT development increases the H-index of the sample countries. The results also indicate that ICT Use and ICT Skill sub-indices positively contribute to higher H-index but the effect of ICT access on country's H-index is not clear.
    Keywords: Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development, H-index, Middle East
    Date: 2013

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