nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2013‒09‒28
eight papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Meat consumption patterns in Vietnam: effects of household characteristics on pork and poultry consumption By Nguyen, Van Phuong; Mergenthaler, Marcus
  2. Analysis of International R&D Spillover from International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Channel: Evidence from Asian Newly Industrialized Countries By Samuel Nursamsu; Fithra Faisal Hastiadi
  3. Capital Flows in Asia-Pacific: Controls, Bonanzas and Sudden Stops By Margit Molnar; Yusuke Tateno; Amornrut Supornsinchai
  4. The Elusive Quest for Inclusive Growth: Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Asia By Ravi Balakrishnan; Chad Steinberg; Murtaza H. Syed
  5. Malaysia: Publication of Financial Sector Assessment Program Documentation—Detailed Assessment of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision By International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
  6. Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory of Real Time Detectors By Peter C.B. Phillips; Shu-Ping Shi; Jun Yu
  7. Who are the Academic All-rounders? By OECD
  8. Testing the Martingale Hypothesis By Peter C.B. Phillips; Sainan Jin

  1. By: Nguyen, Van Phuong; Mergenthaler, Marcus
    Abstract: This study relates social-demographic characteristics of Vietnamese households to their consumption of meat. Tobit models are estimated drawing on the latest Vietnamese Household Living Standard Survey in 2010 (VHLSS 2010). The analysis of demand for pork and poultry in Vietnamese households demonstrates that the meat demand in Vietnam is significantly affected by socio-economic and geographic factors.
    Keywords: Vietnam, meat consumption, household consumption, tobit model, VHLSS, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing,
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Samuel Nursamsu (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics Universitas Indonesia); Fithra Faisal Hastiadi (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics Universitas Indonesia)
    Abstract: This research tries to explain the relation between international R&D spillover from international trade and FDI channel with productivity (TFP) based on endogenous growth theory in Asian Newly Industrialized Countries (ANIC) in period 1990--2010. In this research, it is found that R&D spillover is a significant factor in increasing TFP, especially from trade channel. It is also found that the availability of educated workers is another important factor in increasing productivity. From the comparison of the two country groups in ANIC, it is found that in ANIC Tier 2, international R&D spillover from export is not increasing productivity, yet its spillover effect is still significant. Another finding of this research is FDI is not an important channel for technology spillover. However, there is a need to further discuss the FDI spillover measurement.
    Keywords: R&D Spillover, Endogenous Growth, Productivity, Asia Developing Countries
    JEL: F00 O33 O47
    Date: 2013–09
  3. By: Margit Molnar; Yusuke Tateno; Amornrut Supornsinchai
    Abstract: The Asia-Pacific region has long been prone to volatile capital flows that have posed a challenge for authorities to cope with and occasionally led to payment difficulties dragging down exchange rates and spilling over to the real economy. The recent global crisis repeated past history, although most economies hard hit by the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis have learnt a lesson and are now better prepared to face volatile capital flows. Asian and Pacific countries have strengthened capital controls over 1995-2010, in particular those targeting portfolio flows. Now more countries impose some sort of control on outflows of all types of capital than 15 years ago and controls on outflows appear more stringent than on inflows. Notwithstanding the controls, most Asia-Pacific economies experienced at least one spell of large capital flows. To effectively curb capital inflow bonanzas, the measures need to be targeted. Portfolio inflow surges can be curbed by controlling bond inflows in general and in the case of very large surges, by limiting collective investment inflows. Controls on credit inflows appear effective in reducing the probability of cross-border lending booms. Furthermore, measures targeting residents appear more effective in reducing the probability of capital inflow bonanzas. Beside control measures, other conditions also appear to have a bearing on the probability of occurrence and on the length of the capital inflow spell. Previous inflows appear to be an important determinant of future booms in all asset categories, while global risk appetite increases the probability of overall inflows and cross border credit bonanzas. Domestic growth only explains the occurrence of equity portfolio inflow booms. A more lenient stance on outflows could shorten the duration of capital inflow bonanzas and hence reduce their cumulative impact on the economy. La région Asie-Pacifique a longtemps été exposée à des flux de capitaux volatiles dont la gestion a représenté un défi pour les autorités et qui ont occasionnellement entrainé des difficultés de paiement tirant vers le bas les taux d’intérêt et se répercutant sur l’économie réelle. L’histoire s’est répétée avec la récente crise mondiale, même si la plupart des économies durement touchées par la crise financière asiatique de 1997-98 ont appris la leçon et sont maintenant mieux préparées pour faire face à des flux de capitaux volatiles. Les pays de l’Asie et du Pacifique ont renforcé les contrôles de capitaux de 1995 à 2010, en particulier ceux ciblant les flux de portefeuille. Maintenant plus de pays imposent une certaine forme de contrôle sur les flux sortants de tous types de capitaux qu’il y a 15 ans et les contrôles sur les flux sortants sont plus stricts que sur les flux entrants. Cela étant, la plupart des économies de l’Asie-Pacifique ont connu au moins une période d’importants flux de capitaux. Pour enrayer efficacement les booms de flux entrants, les mesures doivent être ciblées. Les flux entrants de portefeuille peuvent être enrayés en contrôlant les afflux de bons en général et dans le cas de flux de grande ampleur, en limitant les investissements collectifs entrants. Les contrôles sur les entrées de crédits apparaissent efficaces pour diminuer la probabilité des booms de prêts transfrontaliers. De plus, les mesures ciblant les résidents semblent plus efficaces pour réduire la probabilité de booms d’entrées de capitaux. Outre les mesures de contrôle, d’autres conditions semblent également avoir un impact sur la probabilité de survenance et sur la durée d’une période d’entrée de capitaux. Les flux précédents semblent être d’importants déterminants des futurs booms pour toutes les catégories d’actifs, alors que l’appétit mondial pour le risque augmente la probabilité d’afflux globaux et des booms des crédits transfrontaliers. La croissance domestique explique seulement l’apparition de booms d’investissements entrants en titres de participation. Une attitude plus indulgente envers les flux sortants pourrait réduire la durée des booms de flux entrants et donc réduire leur impact cumulatif sur l’économie.
    Keywords: capital flows, sudden stops, bonanzas, capital controls, flux de capitaux, retraits soudains, booms, contrôles de capitaux
    JEL: F21 F32 F34
    Date: 2013–08–29
  4. By: Ravi Balakrishnan; Chad Steinberg; Murtaza H. Syed
    Abstract: This paper assesses how pro-poor and inclusive Asia’s recent growth has been, and what factors have been driving these outcomes. It finds that while poverty has fallen across the region over the last two decades, inequality has increased, dampening the impact of growth on poverty reduction. As a result, relative to other emerging and developing regions and to Asia’s own past, the recent period of growth has been both less inclusive and less pro-poor. Our analysis suggests a number of policies that could help redress these trends and broaden the benefits of growth in Asia. These include fiscal policies to increase spending on health, education, and social safetynets; labor market reforms to boost the labor share of total income; and reforms to make financial systems more inclusive.
    Keywords: Economic growth;Asia;Fiscal policy;Government expenditures;Social safety nets;Labor market reforms;China;Asia, Inequality, Inclusive Growth, Poverty, Labor Market, Fiscal Policy, Financial Markets.
    Date: 2013–06–26
  5. By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
    Keywords: Financial Sector Assessment Program;Banking sector;Basel Core Principles;Bank supervision;Bank regulations;Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes;Malaysia;
    Date: 2013–03–08
  6. By: Peter C.B. Phillips (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Shu-Ping Shi (Australian National University); Jun Yu (Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper provides the limit theory of real time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011, PWY) and Phillips, Shi and Yu (2013b, PSY). Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble episodes that are embedded within longer periods where the data evolves as a stochastic trend, thereby capturing normal market behavior as well as exuberance and collapse. Both the PWY and PSY estimates rely on recursive right tailed unit root tests (each with a different recursive algorithm) that may be used in real time to locate the origination and collapse dates of bubbles. Under certain explicit conditions, the moving window detector of PSY is shown to be a consistent dating algorithm even in the presence of multiple bubbles. The other algorithms are consistent detectors for bubbles early in the sample and, under stronger conditions, for subsequent bubbles in some cases. These asymptotic results and accompanying simulations guide the practical implementation of the procedures. They indicate that the PSY moving window detector is more reliable than the PWY strategy, sequential application of the PWY procedure and the CUSUM procedure.
    Keywords: Bubble duration, Consistency, Dating algorithm, Limit theory, Multiple bubbles, Real time detector
    JEL: C15 C22
    Date: 2013–09
  7. By: OECD
    Abstract: On average across OECD countries, around 4% of students are top performers in reading, mathematics and science (all-rounders). Australia, Finland, Hong Kong-China, Japan, New Zealand, Shanghai-China and Singapore have larger proportions of these students than any other country or economy.
    Date: 2013–09
  8. By: Peter C.B. Phillips (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Sainan Jin (Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: We propose new tests of the martingale hypothesis based on generalized versions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramer-von Mises tests. The tests are distribution free and allow for a weak drift in the null model. The methods do not require either smoothing parameters or bootstrap resampling for their implementation and so are well suited to practical work. The paper develops limit theory for the tests under the null and shows that the tests are consistent against a wide class of nonlinear, non-martingale processes. Simulations show that the tests have good finite sample properties in comparison with other tests particularly under conditional heteroskedasticity and mildly explosive alternatives. An empirical application to major exchange rate data finds strong evidence in favor of the martingale hypothesis, confirming much earlier research.
    Keywords: Brownian functional, Martingale hypothesis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer-von Mises test, Explosive process, Exchange rates
    JEL: C12
    Date: 2013–09

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