nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2013‒09‒13
thirteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Complementary Policies to Increase Poor People’s Access to Higher Education: the Case of West Java, Indonesia By Mohamad Fahmi; Achmad Maulana; Ariek A. Yusuf
  2. Japan’s Experience with Human Resources for Health Policies By Kodera, Kiyoshi; Ishii, Yojiro; Aoki, Tsunenori; Ashida, Tetsuyya; Abe, Chiharu
  3. Between Economic and Political Crises:Thailandfs Contested Free Trade Agreements By Pongsudhirak, Thitinan
  4. Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis By Kubo, Koji
  5. The formation of water user groups in a nexus of central directives and local administration in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam By Benedikter, Simon; Waibel, Gabi
  6. Supply chain collaboration and responsiveness : a comparison between Thai automotive and electronics industries By Ueki, Yasushi
  7. Formation of supply chain collaboration and firm performance in the Thai automotive and electronics industries By Ueki, Yasushi
  8. INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION:Lessons of five outstanding cases By Hosono, Akio
  9. Five growth strategies for Myanmar : re-engagement with the global economy By Kudo, Toshihiro; Kumagai, Satoru; Umezaki, So
  10. Making Growth Green and Inclusive: The Case of Cambodia By Essam Yassin Mohammed; Shannon Wang; Gary Kawaguchi
  11. Unilateral Facilitation Does Not Raise International Labor Migration from the Philippines By David McKenzie; Emily Beam; Dean Yang
  12. Evaluation of development programs : randomized controlled trials or regressions ? By Elbers, Chris; Gunning, Jan Willem
  13. A Structural Estimation on Capital Market Distortions in Chinese Manufacturing By Zheng (Michael) Song; Guiying (Laura) Wu

  1. By: Mohamad Fahmi (CEDS - Universitas Padjadjaran, INDONESIA); Achmad Maulana (CEDS - Universitas Padjadjaran, INDONESIA); Ariek A. Yusuf (CEDS - Universitas Padjadjaran, INDONESIA)
    Abstract: We see a weakness in the merit-based government scholarship program, Bidik Misi, for students from poor families; most of them fail to meet the minimum academic requirements. This paper provides a policy simulation that compares two programs – private tutoring voucher (PTV) and conditional cash transfer (CCT) – to complement the Bidik Misi scholarship to boost the number of poor students eligible for the support. To this end, we offer a policy targeted at second and third year high school students at public schools. The data sources used in this study are: the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), the Indonesia Social and Economic Survey (SUSENAS), and some primary data. To choose the best alternative, we compare the cost effectiveness of both the programs and find that the cost per student in private tutoring voucher (PTV) program is lower than the CCT program. The PTV program is also more convincing than CCT as it could directly influence the quality of instruction. We also check the robustness of the scenario using two one-way sensitivity analyses. These analyses support our finding that the PTV program is more cost effective than the CCT program.
    Date: 2013–09
  2. By: Kodera, Kiyoshi; Ishii, Yojiro; Aoki, Tsunenori; Ashida, Tetsuyya; Abe, Chiharu
    Abstract: This report mainly reviews the years from 1945 to 1980. According to the historical statistics of per capita GDP in 1990 International Geary Khamis dollars by Angus Maddison, Japan‟s economy expanded ten times from $1,300 to $13,000 during this period. This change corresponds to a shift from a low to an upper middle income country in the world today. The values of per capita GDP of 2008 in the same statistics are $1,000 or below in Somalia, Afghanistan and Haiti; $1,000 to $2,000 in Sudan, Laos and Nicaragua; $2,000 to $3,000 in Mozambique, Vietnam and Bolivia; $3,000 to $4,000 in Egypt, Myanmar and Ecuador; $4,000 to $5,000 in South Africa, Indonesia and Guatemala; $5,000 to $10,000 in Turkey, Thailand, China and Brazil; and $10,000 to $13,000 in Malaysia and Argentina.2 This report focuses on Japan‟s policy experience in the said period to draw some lessons for developing countries in respective stages corresponding to those of economic growth in Japan, although their social situation and level ofavailable current technologies are different from those of Japan at respective periods in the past.
    Keywords: universal health coverage , Africa , Human Resources for Health , Japan's HRH policies
    Date: 2013–07–26
  3. By: Pongsudhirak, Thitinan
    Abstract: Notwithstanding the unavoidable adverse impact on its export sector, Thailand weathered the Global Financial Crisis in the late 2000s better than many of its emerging-market peers, owing to structural adjustments and recovery dynamics in the aftermath of its crippling financial crisis a decade earlier. Thailandfs political crisis also dampened what otherwise would have been a more exuberant risk-taking financial sector, thereby keeping exposure to the GFC relatively minimal. Instead, the Thai growth story in the 2000s was dominated not by financial crisis but by political polarization and turmoil arising from former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatrafs wide range of policy innovations and adjustments that provide the basis for this paper. His governmentfs pace of policy formulation and implementation with the aims of structural change and economic upgrading in the Thai economy amidst globalization challenges was bold and unprecedented. This paper sets out to examine the underpinnings, dynamics and implications of Thaksinfs policy platform. Why were such adjustment and upgrading policies considered, formulated and implemented during the Thaksin years but not as much before or after? What were the roots and dynamics of this upgrading? A principal component among the host of such policy innovations and adjustments was Thaksinfs preference for bilateral free-trade agreements. Thaksinfs FTA strategy thus serves as a policy case study. It was instructive of Thailandfs global trade constraints and of Thaksinfs policy assertiveness. Ironically, it ended up providing a rationale for the coalition that deposed him. The overarching aim here is to show how the 1997-98 crisis augured well for Thaksinfs rise, his policy innovations with particular reference to FTAs, and how the subsequent global economic crisis in 2008-09 was incidental to Thailandfs political crisis surrounding Thaksinfs fall.
    Keywords: financial crisis , Free Trade Agreements (FTA) , political polarization , Thaksin Shinawatra , Thailand
    Date: 2013–09–03
  4. By: Kubo, Koji
    Abstract: Easing of economic sanctions by Western countries in 2012 augmented the prospect that Myanmar will expand its exports. This study projects Myanmar’s export potential by calculating counterfactual exports with gravity equation regressions using data from 10 Asian countries. Its empirical results indicate that Myanmar’s actual exports of non-resource goods during 2005–2010 were one–fifth of their potential, implying that exports to neighbouring countries did not compensate for exports lost to Western sanctions. Restored access to the U.S. market is expected to enhance Myanmar’s exports, particularly of apparel.
    Keywords: Myanmar, International trade, Economic sanctions, Exports, Gravity model
    JEL: F14 F17 F51 O53
    Date: 2013–08
  5. By: Benedikter, Simon; Waibel, Gabi
    Abstract: Vietnam’s agrarian system has profoundly changed since the government initiated its renovation policy in 1986. Various policy directives and institutional reforms have been aimed at increasing the production of cash crops for the export markets and ensuring the nation’s food security. The government has undertaken considerable investments in irrigation and water control to boost local rice production, especially in the Mekong Delta. Today, a large water bureaucracy plans, implements and maintains the hydraulic infrastructure, but farmers have to contribute to funding and managing the irrigation systems. In this context, water user groups started to emerge from the 1990s onwards. This study on the trajectory of group development in Can Tho City shows that party-state authorities strongly stimulate group formation processes and organise the collaboration between farmers and the state. As a result, water user groups have become an integral part of local water management and instrumental in meeting the state-mandated production targets in agriculture.
    Keywords: Water resources management; Vietnam; Mekong Delta; water user groups; irrigation; rural production; decentralisation
    JEL: Q0 Q1
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Ueki, Yasushi
    Abstract: This paper examines factors that promote firms to develop supply chain collaborations (SCC) with their partners and relationships between SCC and supply chain operational performances (SCOP), using a questionnaire survey on Thai automotive and electronics industries in 2012. This paper also carries out a comparative study on these questions between the electronics and automotive industries. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) regressions verifY that supplier evaluation and audit is a foundation for firms to share information and synchronize decision makings with their partners, and that such SCC are significantly related to SCOP indictors such as on-time delivery, fast procurement, and flexibility to customer need irrespective of industry type. On the other hand, competitive pressure motivates only electronics firms to develop sec in order to be more innovative.
    Keywords: Thailand, Distribution, Industrial management, Automobile industry, Electronic industries, Supply chain, Information sharing, Decision synchronization, Responsiveness, Automotive, Electronics
    JEL: L23 L62 L63 O31 O53 D22
    Date: 2013–03
  7. By: Ueki, Yasushi
    Abstract: This paper examines factors that encourage firms to go into supply chain collaborations (SCC) and relationships between SCC and supply chain performances (SCP), using a questionnaire survey on Thai automotive and electronics industries in 2012. OLS regression results show firms established supplier evaluation and audit system, system of rewards for high-performance supplier and long-term transactions with their supply chain partners under a competitive pressure are more closely cooperate with these partners on information sharing and decision synchronization. Instrumental variables regression indicates SCC arisen from competitive pressure, supplier evaluation and audit, a system of rewards for high-performance supplier and long-term relationship causally influence SCP such as on-time delivery, responsiveness to fast procurement, flexibility to customer need, and profit.
    Keywords: Thailand, Distribution, Industrial management, Automobile industry, Electronic industries, Supply chain collaboration, Supply chain performance, Automotive, Electronics, Supply chain
    JEL: L23 L62 L63 O31 O53 D22
    Date: 2013–03
  8. By: Hosono, Akio
    Abstract: Industrial development, especially industrial structure up-grading and diversification, is considered essential for economic transformation and sustained growth. The objective of this paper is to obtain insights into how crucial factors for industrial development, such as accumulation of knowledge and capabilities, technological innovation, infrastructure, institutions, interact in practice, focusing on several outstanding cases of industrial development, which produced a remarkable economic transformation. In these cases, different factors including investment in infrastructure, technological breakthrough, as well as external factors, triggered the economic transformation, but it could not have happened without continuous accumulation of capabilities and knowledge through learning. In all cases, effective institutions accomplished the role of facilitator or catalyzer of transformation.
    Keywords: industrial development , economic transformation , THAILAND , Brazil BANGLADESH , CHILE , SINGAPORE
    Date: 2013–07–18
  9. By: Kudo, Toshihiro; Kumagai, Satoru; Umezaki, So
    Abstract: After decades of isolation, Myanmar is now actively re-engaging with the global economy. For successful re-engagement, Myanmar needs to implement comprehensive economic reforms based on a shared vision for long-term economic development that is characterized by human-centered, high, sustainable, pro-poor, inclusive, and balanced economic growth. In this paper, we propose five growth strategies: "Agriculture Plus Plus," an export-oriented strategy, a foreign direct investment-driven strategy, a two-polar growth strategy, and a strategy to develop domestic economic corridors. These strategies are used as guides to translate these development agendas into a set of implementable policies, programs, and projects.
    Keywords: Myanmar, Economic development, Development policy, Economic policy, Myanmar (Burma), Growth strategy, Economic reforms, Re-engagement with global economy
    JEL: O10 O20 O53
    Date: 2013–08
  10. By: Essam Yassin Mohammed; Shannon Wang; Gary Kawaguchi
    Abstract: Developing countries have collectively displayed relatively high growth rates in the last decade. Although large disparities still persist in standards of living, low and middle income countries averaged economic growth of 6.2% between 2000 and 2008, pulling 325 million people out of poverty (World Bank, 2010). Global growth has been accompanied by environmental degradation and in some cases there are growing numbers of people still living in poverty. Key questions for development planning today in countries include: Can developing countries strike a balance between economic growth, societal well-being and environmental protection? Can inclusive, green growth be a way forward? This report presents a case study on Cambodia designed to answer these questions. The case study draws on several sources of information to compile a “snapshot” of the situation today. In particular, qualitative information was gathered through a two-day, multi-stakeholder workshop and through bilateral interviews conducted with relevant actors from both public and private sectors. It also draws on relevant literature to present a balanced picture of the state of play on green growth in Cambodia.
    Date: 2013–08–12
  11. By: David McKenzie (Development Research Group, The World Bank); Emily Beam (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Dean Yang (Economics Department, University of Michigan)
    Abstract: Significant income gains from migrating from poorer to richer countries have motivated unilateral (source-country) policies facilitating labor emigration. However, their effectiveness is unknown. We conducted a large-scale randomized experiment in the Philippines testing the impact of unilaterally facilitating international labor migration. Our most intensive treatment doubled the rate of job offers but had no identifiable effect on international labor migration. Even the highest overseas job-search rate we induced (22%) falls far short of the share initially expressing interest in migrating (34%). We conclude that unilateral migration facilitation will at most induce a trickle, not a flood, of additional emigration.
    Keywords: International migration, passport costs, barriers to migration, unilateral migration policy, imperfect information, job-matching, field experiment, Philippines
    JEL: O15 F22 O15 C93
    Date: 2013–09
  12. By: Elbers, Chris; Gunning, Jan Willem
    Abstract: Can project evaluation methods be used to evaluate programs: complex interventions involving multiple activities? A program evaluation cannot be based simply on separate evaluations of its components if interactions between the activities are important. In this paper a measure is proposed, the total program effect (TPE), which is an extension of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET). It explicitly takes into account that in the real world (with heterogeneous treatment effects) individual treatment effects and program assignment are often correlated. The TPE can also deal with the common situation in which such a correlation is the result of decisions on (intended) program participation not being taken centrally. In this context RCTs are less suitable even for the simplest interventions. The TPE can be estimated by applying regression techniques to observational data from a representative sample from the targeted population. The approach is illustrated with an evaluation of a health insurance program in Vietnam.
    Keywords: Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Science Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences
    Date: 2013–09–01
  13. By: Zheng (Michael) Song (University of Chicago, Booth School of Business); Guiying (Laura) Wu (Division of Economics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 637332)
    Abstract: Capital market distortions lower aggregate productive efficiency by misallocating re- sources. The existing literature infers such distortions from the dispersion of the average revenue product of capital. However, the methodology is subject to a set of identification issues: unobserved heterogeneities in production technology and market power; capital ad- justment costs with idiosyncratic shocks; and measurement errors in the data. This paper develops a structural econometric approach of estimating capital market distortions in en- vironments where all the above factors can be present. Using representative firm-level data from Chinese manufacturing from 2004 to 2007, we find that capital market distortions imply aggregate revenue losses of 40 percent. We also estimate distortions for U.S. manu- facturing firms in Compustat. Improving capital allocation e¢ ciency to the level observed among the Compustat firms would increase China's manufacturing revenue by 31 percent. Finally, we propose a simplified approach, which addresses the identification issues in a much more tractable way.
    Keywords: capital market distortions, Chinese manufacturing, structural estimation, un-observed heterogeneities
    JEL: C15 D92 E22 O16 O47
    Date: 2013–06

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