nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2013‒06‒24
sixteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Modeling the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Thai Rice Exports By Molina, Imelda R.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Pede, Valerien; Valera, Harold
  2. Estimation of Import Demand for Fishery Products in the U.S. Using the Source-Differentiated AIDS Model By Wang, Xiaojin; Reed, Michael
  3. Long-term Impacts of Global Food Crisis on Production Decisions: Evidence from Farm Investments in Indonesia By Nose, Manabu; Yamauchi, Futoshi
  4. Profiteering from the Dot-com Bubble, Sub-Prime Crisis and Asian Financial Crisis By Michael McAleer; John Suen; Wing Keung Wong
  5. The decision to invest in child quality over quantity : household size and household investment in education in Vietnam By Dang, Hai-Anh; Rogers, Halsey
  6. Testing Hicksian Separability Over Space By Gibson, John; Kim, Bonggeun
  7. An Empirical Comparison of Coffee Price Transmission in Vietnam and Colombia By Li, Xile
  8. Intensive Commercial Agriculture in Fragile Uplands of Vietnam: How to Harness its Poverty Reduction Potential while Ensuring Environmental Sustainability?. By Keil, Alwin; Saint-Macary, Camille; Zeller, Manfred
  9. A Note on Height and Surnames: The Role of Networks By Hassink, Wolter; van Leeuwen, Bas
  10. Comparing the Performance of Uganda’s Intra-East African Community Trade and Other Trading Blocs: A Gravity Model Analysis By Isaac, Shinyekwa; Lawrence, Othieno
  11. Do Policy-Related Shocks Affect Real Exchange Rates of Asian Developing Countries? By Taya Dumrongrittikul; Heather M. Anderson
  12. Achieving Education for All Goals: Does Corruption Matter? By Dridi, Mohamed
  13. Farmland loss, nonfarm diversification and inequality: A micro-econometric analysis of household surveys in Vietnam By Tran, Tuyen; Vu, Huong
  14. Social spending, distribution, and equality of opportunities : opportunity incidence analysis By Cuesta, Jose
  15. Misunderestimating corruption By Kraay, Aart; Kraay, Aart; Murrell, Peter
  16. The role of private equity investments in public firms : international evidence By Dahiya, Sandeep; Klapper, Leora; Parthasarathy, Harini; Singer, Dorothe

  1. By: Molina, Imelda R.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Pede, Valerien; Valera, Harold
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of exchange rate volatility on the rice export flows of Thailand to its major trading partners namely South Africa, China, United States of America, Indonesia, Singapore and Japan for the period 2001:1−2012:12. We use a six-month moving sample standard deviation of the growth of the real exchange rate which is then tested in a model of Thai milled rice exports. Cointegration and error-correction models are used to obtain the estimates of the cointegrating relations and the short-run dynamics, respectively. The results obtained in this paper, on the whole, provide evidence that the real exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the volume of Thai rice exports.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Wang, Xiaojin; Reed, Michael
    Abstract: Fishery product imports by the U.S. have been gradually increasing in recent years. The leading exporting countries include Canada, Chile, China, Ecuador, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. A source-differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model and its Error Correction Model (ECM) version are employed to investigate the static and dynamic U.S. import demand for fishery products from the top seven countries using monthly data from January 1999 to September 2012. Long-run and short-run own-price, cross-price and expenditure elasticities are calculated.
    Keywords: fishery products, import demand, Almost Ideal Demand System Model, Error Correction Model, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q11, Q17, Q22,
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Nose, Manabu; Yamauchi, Futoshi
    Abstract: Did the rise in food prices have a long-term impact on agricultural production? Using household-level panel data from seven provinces of Indonesia, we examine whether the 2007-08 food price crisis triggered farm investments. Empirical results show that (i) the food price crisis created a forward-looking incentive to invest, which can increase farm productivity in the long run, (ii) the expectation formation plays an important role in determining the impact, and (iii) the impact differs by the initial wealth; the positive price shock relaxed liquidity constraints among the poor. Implications on inequalities in income and productivity are discussed.
    Keywords: Productive investment, Expectation, Anticipated shock, Liquidity constraint, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Risk and Uncertainty, D22, O12, Q12,
    Date: 2013–01
  4. By: Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid Spain and Institute of Economic Research Kyoto University Japan); John Suen (Department of Statistics Chinese University of Hong Kong); Wing Keung Wong (Department of Economics Hong Kong Baptist University)
    Abstract: This paper explores the characteristics associated with the formation of bubbles that occurred in the Hong Kong stock market in 1997 and 2007, as well as the 2000 dot-com bubble of Nasdaq. It examines the profitability of Technical Analysis (TA) strategies generating buy and sell signals with knowing and without trading rules. The empirical results show that by applying long and short strategies during the bubble formation and short strategies after the bubble burst, it not only produces returns that are significantly greater than buy and hold strategies, but also produces greater wealth compared with TA strategies without trading rules. We conclude these bubble detection signals help investors generate greater wealth from applying appropriate long and short Moving Average (MA) strategies.
    Keywords: Technical analysis, moving average, buy-and-hold strategy, dot-com bubble, Asian financial crisis, sub-prime crisis, moving linear regression, volatility.
    JEL: G1 C0
    Date: 2013–06
  5. By: Dang, Hai-Anh; Rogers, Halsey
    Abstract: During Vietnam's two decades of rapid economic growth, its fertility rate has fallen sharply at the same time that its educational attainment has risen rapidly -- macro trends that are consistent with the hypothesis of a quantity-quality tradeoff in child-rearing. This paper investigates whether the micro-level evidence supports the hypothesis that Vietnamese parents are in fact making a tradeoff between quantity and quality of children. The paper presents new measures of household investment in private tutoring, together with traditional measures of household investments in education. It analyzes data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys and instruments for family size using the distance to the nearest family planning center. The estimation results show that families do indeed invest less in the education of school-age children who have larger numbers of siblings. This effect holds for several indicators of educational investment -- including general education expenditure and various measures of private tutoring investment -- and is robust to various definitions of family size and model specifications that control for community characteristics as well as the distance to the city center. Finally, the results suggest that tutoring may be a better measure of quality-oriented household investments in education than traditional measures like enrollment, which are arguably less nuanced and household-driven.
    Keywords: Population Policies,Teaching and Learning,Primary Education,Population&Development,Education For All
    Date: 2013–06–01
  6. By: Gibson, John; Kim, Bonggeun
    Abstract: If relative prices of goods within a commodity group are constant, Hicksian separability lets the price of a single good represent the group price level. This is relied on by designers of price questionnaires used in household surveys and by methods of estimating demand systems from household survey data. A survey from Vietnam with multiple specifications from within the same food groups clearly shows that within-group relative prices are not constant over space.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, International Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Li, Xile
    Abstract: This study applies an Error Correction Model to identify the price transmission between the grower price and the world price in Colombia and Vietnam, with an emphasis on the price long-run relationship and short-run adjustment. The long-run relationship between the world price and grower price is of significant importance due to the fact that Colombia and Vietnam are the two major suppliers for Colombian Milds and Robusta, respectively. We conclude that the short-run price transmission is asymmetric for both varieties from the perspective of the adjustment toward the long-run equilibrium.
    Keywords: price transmission, coffee, error correction, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Keil, Alwin; Saint-Macary, Camille; Zeller, Manfred
    Abstract: Markets for high-value agricultural commodities are growing and can contribute to reducing rural poverty. However, the poor may be unable to participate in such markets, and adverse environmental impacts may counterbalance short-term benefits. Hence, policies are needed that help reducing poverty while protecting the environment. We address this challenge using the case of commercial maize production for animal feed purposes in a marginal upland area of Vietnam. We identify determinants of farmers’ degree of participation in maize production using regression analysis and assess farmers’ awareness of soil erosion and their conservation practices. The poorest are particularly specialized in maize but depend on disadvantageous input supply and marketing arrangements to offset infrastructural and institutional deficiencies. High awareness of soil erosion is contrasted by lacking conservation practices due to high opportunity costs. Policies should foster the integration of livestock in the maize-based farming system and promote soil conservation technologies that produce feed.
    Keywords: Commercial agriculture; rural poverty; land degradation; tobit regression; Vietnam;
    JEL: O13 Q56
    Date: 2013
  9. By: Hassink, Wolter (Utrecht University); van Leeuwen, Bas (Utrecht University)
    Abstract: Many studies indicate that human height is determined largely by childhood circumstances, which in turn influences an adult's labor market opportunities. The aim of this note is to test this thesis by examining the correlation between childhood circumstances and labor market outcomes on the one hand, and heights on the other, when networks are included as proxied by surnames. The fact that, after the inclusion of this surname proxy, we find a correlation only between height and labor market outcomes suggests that, while childhood circumstances affect height largely via social status and networks as captured by surnames, the same does not apply for labor market outcomes.
    Keywords: stature, networks, Indonesia
    JEL: J01 N35 Z13
    Date: 2013–05
  10. By: Isaac, Shinyekwa; Lawrence, Othieno
    Abstract: This paper examines factors that determine Uganda’s trade flows and specifically compares the impact and performance of the different trade blocs on Uganda’s trade patterns and flows. The empirical question is whether Uganda’s trade is getting more integrated in the East African Community (EAC) region or is still dominated by other trading blocs, namely European Union (EU), Asia and Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)? Two analytical approaches are used, namely: trade indicators and estimation of the gravity models using data extracted from COMTRADE for the period 2001 – 2009 (panel). We estimate determinants of export and import trade flows separately using static random, dynamic random and IV GMM models. The results suggest a strong relationship between belonging to a trading bloc and trade flows. Likewise, Uganda’s import and export trade flows have conspicuously adjusted to the gravitational forces of the EAC during the progress of the integration. Whereas exports are being integrated more in the EAC and COMESA regions, imports are more integrated in the Asian and EU trading blocs. Therefore, strong links with trading blocs outside the EAC (i.e. EU and Asia) with regards to imports still exist. The trade indicators demonstrate that Uganda exports largely primary products and imports manufactured products. It is imperative for Uganda to target implementation of regional trade agreements to expand the country’s export markets. The EAC region should attract investment in production of high technology products to increase intra-EAC imports and reduce imports from Asia and the EU.
    Keywords: Gravity model, imports, exports, intra, trade intensity index, trade indices, trade flows, trade shares, blocs, regional integration, panel, random and fixed effects., Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, Political Economy,
    Date: 2013–04
  11. By: Taya Dumrongrittikul; Heather M. Anderson
    Abstract: This paper examines real exchange rate responses to shocks in exchange rate determinants and monetary policy for eight Asian developing countries. The analysis is based on a panel pseudo-Bayesian structural vector error correction model, and the shocks are identified using sign and zero restrictions. We find that trade liberalization generates permanent depreciation, and higher government consumption causes persistent appreciation. Traded-sector productivity gains induce appreciation but their effects are short-lived. Real exchange rate responses to unexpected monetary tightening are consistent with the Dornbusch overshooting hypothesis and long-run neutrality of monetary policy. The evidence suggests that trade liberalization provides an effective device for driving exchange rate movements.
    Keywords: Real exchange rates, exchange rate determination, vector error correction model, monetary policy shock, sign restrictions, penalty function
    Date: 2013
  12. By: Dridi, Mohamed
    Abstract: The Education for All (EFA) programme has received and continues to receive a great deal of attention since the convening of the World Conference on Education in Jomtien (Thailand, 1990). Several reports have been published over the past decade, especially by the UNESCO, to assess the progress being made by different nations and regions in moving towards EFA goals. A common finding of these reports is that achievement registered in many parts of the world was not as great as expected. The aim of this paper is to explore whether differences in corruption levels can explain differences in the progress towards EFA goals across countries and regions. Using the 2007 EFA Development Index which incorporates data on progress towards four EFA targets (universal primary education, gender parity, adult literacy and education quality), we show that countries and regions with high corruption levels are those who registered the worst progress towards EFA.
    Keywords: Corruption, Education, Education for All
    JEL: D73 I29
    Date: 2013–06–17
  13. By: Tran, Tuyen; Vu, Huong
    Abstract: The relationship between farmland loss, nonfarm diversification and inequality has been well-documented in the literature. However, no study has quantified this relationship. Using a dataset from a 2010 field survey involving 477 households, this study has contributed to the literature by providing the first econometricevidence about the impacts of farmland loss (due to urbanization and industrialization) onnonfarm diversification and income quality among households in Hanoi's peri-urban areas. Our results show that under the impact of farmland loss, households have actually diversified their income through various nonfarm activities,notably in informal wage work. In addition, while farmland loss has reduced the share of farm income, resulting in an increase in income inequality,it has also increased the share of informal wage income, leading to a decrease in income inequality
    Keywords: Farmland acquisition, formal wage income, fractional multinomial logit and Gini decomposition
    JEL: Q12
    Date: 2013–06–14
  14. By: Cuesta, Jose
    Abstract: Existing evidence forms a body of"conventional wisdom"on the redistributive impact of fiscal policies that has been recently questioned by more disaggregated analyses. This paper proposes an additional extension to the traditional benefit incidence analysis to explore further the extent to which the conventional wisdom holds, as well as to provide effective guidance in fiscal decision making. The benefit incidence analysis extension includes linking fiscal policies with the concept of equality of opportunities. The paper describes this approach and showcases the application of the proposed"opportunity incidence analysis"to six pilot countries: Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Zambia, Tajikistan, Thailand, and Paraguay. Three main contributions stand out: first, opportunity incidence analysis complements traditional benefit incidence analysis by applying its mechanics to a more forward looking concept of equal opportunity. Second, opportunities can be used to target public spending with higher precision. Third, micro-simulations can be used to understand the cost-effectiveness of alternative spending interventions that seek to improve equality of opportunities. All of these results complement the diagnosis produced by traditional incidence analysis and provide useful information to guide specific policy decisions.
    Keywords: Access to Finance,Subnational Economic Development,Public Sector Expenditure Policy,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Systems Development&Reform
    Date: 2013–06–01
  15. By: Kraay, Aart; Kraay, Aart; Murrell, Peter
    Abstract: Estimates of the extent of corruption rely largely on self-reports of individuals, business managers, and government officials. Yet it is well known that survey respondents are reticent to tell the truth about activities to which social and legal stigma are attached, implying a downward bias in survey-based estimates of corruption. This paper develops a method to estimate the prevalence of reticent behavior, in order to isolate rates of corruption that fully reflect respondent reticence in answering sensitive questions. The method is based on a statistical model of how respondents behave when answering a combination of conventional and random-response survey questions. The responses to these different types of questions reflect three probabilities -- that the respondent has done the sensitive act in question, that the respondent exhibits reticence in answering sensitive questions, and that a reticent respondent is not candid in answering any specific sensitive question. These probabilities can be estimated using a method-of-moments estimator. Evidence from the 2010 World Bank Enterprise survey in Peru suggests reticence-adjusted estimates of corruption that are roughly twice as large as indicated by responses to standard questions. Reticence-adjusted estimates of corruption are also substantially higher in a set of ten Asian countries covered in the Gallup World Poll.
    Keywords: Information Security&Privacy,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Psychology,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Science Education
    Date: 2013–06–01
  16. By: Dahiya, Sandeep; Klapper, Leora; Parthasarathy, Harini; Singer, Dorothe
    Abstract: This paper compares the raising of external equity capital from private equity investors via private investments in public equity (PIPEs) and seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) using a sample of 456 PIPEs and 1,910 SEOs drawn from nine Asian countries. Consistent with the idea that insiders attempt to time the markets, firms issuing SEOs are preceded by a significantly higher run-up in stock price compared with those issuing PIPEs. This result is consistent with the undervaluation hypothesis that states that firms are more likely to issue PIPEs when they perceive their stock to be undervalued. In contrast to the United States where this undervaluation appears to be driven by financial distress and asymmetric information, the results show PIPE and SEO issuers to be statistically undistinguishable from each other. The announcement of a PIPE offering is on average associated with a significantly higher stock market reaction compared with an issue of a SEO, suggesting that private equity investors may play a certification or monitoring role. However, a comparison of PIPE issuers'operating performance and stock market returns in the pre-issue and the post-issue periods does not detect any significant improvements.
    Keywords: Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access,Investment and Investment Climate,Economic Theory&Research
    Date: 2013–06–01

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