nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2013‒06‒16
nineteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. What Lessons Can Asia Draw from Capital Controls in Brazil during 2008–2012? By Jinjarak, Yothin; Noy, Ilan; Zheng, Huanhuan
  2. Governance and Economic Integration: Stakes for Asia By Owen, Robert F.
  3. Associations of Southeast Asian Nations, People's Republic of China, and India Growth and the Rest of the World: The Role of Trade By Lawrence, Robert Z.
  4. Development Trajectories, Emission Profile, and Policy Actions: Singapore By Doshi, Tilak K.; D’Souza, Neil Sebastian
  5. Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam By Alberto Bagnai; Arsène Rieber; Thi Anh-Dao Tran
  6. Protecting Poor and Vulnerable Households in Indonesia By World Bank
  7. The Evolving Integration in East Asia - Too many reservations? By Pape, Wolfgang
  8. Does Elite Capture Matter? Local Elites and Targeted Welfare Programs in Indonesia By Alatas, Vivi; Banerjee, Abhijit; Hanna, Rema; Olken, Benjamin A.; Purnamasari, Ririn; Wai-Poi, Matthew
  9. Universal Coverage on a Budget: Impacts on Health Care Utilization and Out-Of-Pocket Expenditures in Thailand By Supon Limwattananon; Sven Neelsen; Owen O'Donnell; Phusit Prakongsai; Viroj Tangcharoensathien; Eddy van Doorslaer
  10. Portfolio choices and risk preferences in village economies By Pierre-Andre Chiappori; Krislert Samphantharak; Sam Schulhofer-Wohl; Robert Townsend
  11. Oil Price Uncertainty and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Asian Economies By Susan S Sharma; Kannan Thuraisamy
  12. Profiteering from the Dot-com Bubble, Sub-Prime Crisis and Asian Financial Crisis By Michael McAleer; John Suen; Wing Keung Wong
  13. Matching Aspirations : Skills for Implementing Cambodia's Growth Strategy By World Bank
  14. Testing Kirkpatrick's Four-Level Hierarchy of Training Evaluation: Evidence from Thailand's Automotive Industry By Homklin Tassanee; Takahashi Yoshi; Techakanont Kriengkrai
  15. Ship incident risk in the areas of Tubbataha and Banc d’Arguin: A case for designation as Particular Sensitive Sea Area? By Knapp, S.; Heij, C.; Henderson, R.; Kleverlaan, E.
  16. Philippines : Basic Education Public Expenditure Review By World Bank; Australia AID
  17. Rules of Thumb for Banking Crises in Emerging Markets By Paolo Manasse; Roberto Savona; Marika Vezzoli
  18. The change-point problem and segmentation of processes with conditional heteroskedasticity By Ana Badagián; Regina Kaiser; Daniel Peña
  19. Does it Matter Which Citation Tool is Used to Compare the H-Index of a Group of Highly Cited Researchers? By Hadi Farhadi; Hadi Salehi; Melor Md Yunus; Aghaei Chadegani Arezoo; Maryam Farhadi; Masood Fooladi; Nader Ale Ebrahim

  1. By: Jinjarak, Yothin (Asian Development Bank Institute); Noy, Ilan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Zheng, Huanhuan (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Driven by waves of foreign capital inflows and outflows, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand—among several other emerging markets—have resorted to capital control policy since 2006. Are capital controls effective? Controls on capital inflows have been experiencing a renaissance since 2008, with several prominent Asian and Latin American countries implementing them. This paper focuses on Brazil, which instituted five changes in its capital account regime over 2008–2011. It concludes that the effectiveness of capital controls should be viewed on a case-by-case basis, together with the political economy considerations, and other policy tools, i.e., foreign exchange intervention.
    Keywords: capital control; brazil; global financial crisis; mutual fund flows; exchange rate
    JEL: E60 F32 G23
    Date: 2013–05–28
  2. By: Owen, Robert F. (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the nexus between changes in governance structures—at national and cooperative international levels—and evolutionary processes of economic integration in light of regional policy targets in Asia. The analysis highlights the importance of improved governance as an essential condition for effectively attaining an “Asian Economic Community” while arguing that the experience of the European Union offers valuable insights regarding the process of integration.
    Keywords: governance; economic integration; regional integration; asia; regional policy; asian economic community; european union
    JEL: F15 P48
    Date: 2013–05–31
  3. By: Lawrence, Robert Z. (Harvard University)
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of past and future growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People's Republic of China (PRC), and India--the ACI countries--on aggregate welfare, relative wages, and global emissions in the rest of the world. It outlines several analytical frameworks, considers effects over the past decade and, based on consensus forecasts, the implications of that growth for the rest of the world in the decades to come.
    JEL: F01 F10
    Date: 2013–05
  4. By: Doshi, Tilak K. (Asian Development Bank Institute); D’Souza, Neil Sebastian (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Singapore is the most industrialized and urbanized country in Southeast Asia and is totally dependent on oil and natural gas imports to satisfy its energy needs. Its national energy policy framework seeks to find a balance between maintaining Singapore’s competitiveness, improving energy security, and enhancing environmental sustainability. This paper discusses where Singapore stands with regard to its energy consumption and CO2 emissions, its energy policies to date, and those that will be implemented in the near future.
    Keywords: singapore; energy policy; energy consumption; co2 emissions; energy security; environmental sustainability
    JEL: O53 Q38 Q40 Q48
    Date: 2013–05–30
  5. By: Alberto Bagnai (Université Gabriele D’Annunzio, Chieti, Italie); Arsène Rieber (Université de Rouen, France); Thi Anh-Dao Tran (UMR DIAL, IRD, Vietnam)
    Abstract: (english) Our paper examines the long run relationship between economic growth and the current account balance equilibrium by relying on the BoP constrained growth model. We find that Vietnam grew less than the rate predicted when the period 1985 to 2010 as a whole is considered, but with different behavior for the 1998-2010 sub-period. The relative price effect is neutral, allowing the volume effects to dominate in setting the BoP constraint. The high income elasticities of exports enable growth in the advanced countries to have a multiplier effect on the Vietnamese economy. However, this effect is hindered by a high ‘appetite’ for imports coming from Asia. We also assess the impact of the current crisis on Vietnam’s growth for the period 2011 to 2017. _________________________________ (français) En se basant sur le modèle de croissance contrainte par la balance des paiements, notre papier examine la relation de long terme au Vietnam entre la croissance économique et l'équilibre de la balance courante. Nous trouvons que sur l’ensemble de la période 1985-2010, le Vietnam a connu un taux de croissance inférieur à celui prédit par le modèle, mais avec une évolution divergente sur la souspériode 1998-2010. L'effet des prix relatifs est neutre, amenant les effets volume à prédominer dans la détermination de la contrainte de balance des paiements. Les élasticités de revenu élevées des exportations permettent à la croissance des pays avancés d'exercer un effet multiplicateur sur l'économie Vietnamienne. Cependant, cet effet est contrecarré par un appétit élevé d’importations venant d'Asie. Nous évaluons également l'impact de la crise actuelle sur la croissance du Vietnam pour la période 2011-2017.
    Keywords: Economic growth, BoP constrained growth model, Multi country model, Asia, Vietnam, Croissance économique, modèle de croissance contrainte par la balance des paiements, modèle multi-pays, Asie, Vietnam.
    JEL: E12 F43 O11 O53
    Date: 2013–06
  6. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Poverty Reduction - Services & Transfers to Poor Poverty Reduction - Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping Social Protections and Labor - Safety Nets and Transfers
    Date: 2012–02
  7. By: Pape, Wolfgang
    Abstract: East Asian economic integration is less well known in Europe than is desirable in the EU’s own enlightened self-interest. It is also badly understood, not least because a range of ‘soft’ cultural, historical and political aspects are insufficiently appreciated in Europe. This CEPS Essay offers a deeper personal reflection on the emergence and development of East Asian economic cooperation and market-driven integration. It attempts to address some of the lingering reservations on both sides and to render the reservations in East Asia more intelligible to Europeans.
    Date: 2013–04
  8. By: Alatas, Vivi (World Bank); Banerjee, Abhijit (MIT); Hanna, Rema (Harvard University); Olken, Benjamin A. (MIT); Purnamasari, Ririn (World Bank); Wai-Poi, Matthew (World Bank)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of elite capture on the allocation of targeted government welfare programs in Indonesia, using both a high-stakes field experiment that varied the extent of elite influence and non-experimental data on a variety of existing government transfer programs. Conditional on their consumption level, there is little evidence that village elites and their relatives are more likely to receive aid programs than non-elites. Looking more closely, however, we find that this overall result masks a difference between different types of elites: those holding formal leadership positions are more likely to receive benefits, while informal leaders are actually less likely to. We show that capture by formal elites occurs during the distribution of benefits under the programs, and not during the processes when the beneficiary lists are determined by the central government. However, while elite capture exists, the welfare losses it creates appear quite small: since formal elites and their relatives are only 9 percent richer than non-elites, are at most about 8 percentage points more likely to receive benefits than non-elites, and represent at most 15 percent of the population, eliminating elite capture entirely would improve the welfare gains from these programs by less than one percent.
    Date: 2013–04
  9. By: Supon Limwattananon (International Health Policy Program, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand); Sven Neelsen (Institute of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam); Owen O'Donnell (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Phusit Prakongsai (International Health Policy Program, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand); Viroj Tangcharoensathien (International Health Policy Program, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand); Eddy van Doorslaer (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: We estimate the impact on health care utilization and out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures of a major reform in Thailand that extended health insurance to one-quarter of the population to achieve universal coverage while keeping health spending below 4% of GDP. Identification is through comparison of changes in outcomes of groups to whom coverage was extended with those of public sector employees and their dependents whose coverage was not affected. The reform is estimated to have reduced the probability that a sick person goes without formal treatment by 3.2 percentage points (11%). It increased the probability of receiving public ambulatory care by 2.7 ppt (5%) and of admission to a public hospital by 1 ppt (18%). OOP expenditures were reduced by one-third on average, as was the probability of spending more than 10% of the household budget on health care, while spending at the very top of the OOP distribution was reduced by one-half representing substantial reductio ns in exposure to medical expenditure risk. Supply-side measures implemented with the coverage extension are likely to have helped realize these effects from an increased, but still very tight, budget.
    Keywords: Health Insurance, Health Care, Medical Expenditures, Universal Coverage, Thailand
    JEL: H42 H51 I18
    Date: 2013–05–16
  10. By: Pierre-Andre Chiappori; Krislert Samphantharak; Sam Schulhofer-Wohl; Robert Townsend
    Abstract: We use a model of optimal portfolio choice to measure heterogeneity in risk aversion among households in Thai villages. There is substantial heterogeneity in risk preferences, positively correlated in most villages with alternative estimates based on a full risk-sharing model.
    Keywords: Risk ; Thailand
    Date: 2013
  11. By: Susan S Sharma (Deakin University); Kannan Thuraisamy (Deakin University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we test whether oil price uncertainty predicts CDS returns for eight Asian countries. We use the Westerlund and Narayan (2011, 2012) predictability test that takes into consideration persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity of the data. In-sample evidence reveals that oil price uncertainty can predict CDS returns for three Asian countries whereas the out-of-sample evidence suggests that oil price uncertainty can predict CDS returns for six countries.
    Keywords: Oil price uncertainty; Predictability; Asian markets; CDS returns
    Date: 2012–12–26
  12. By: Michael McAleer (University of Canterbury); John Suen; Wing Keung Wong
    Abstract: This paper explores the characteristics associated with the formation of bubbles that occurred in the Hong Kong stock market in 1997 and 2007, as well as the 2000 dot-com bubble in NASDAQ. It examines the profitability of Technical Analysis (TA) strategies generating buy and sell signals with knowing and without trading rules. The empirical results show that by applying long and short strategies during the bubble formation and short strategies after the bubble burst, it not only produces returns that are significantly greater than buy and hold strategies, but also produces greater wealth compared with TA strategies without trading rules. We conclude these bubble detection signals help investors generate greater wealth from applying appropriate long and short Moving Average (MA) strategies.
    Keywords: Technical analysis, moving average, buy-and-hold strategy, dot-com bubble, Asian financial crisis, sub-prime crisis, moving linear regression, volatility
    JEL: G1 C0
    Date: 2013–06–03
  13. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Education - Access & Equity in Basic Education Education - Education For All Education - Effective Schools and Teachers Education - Lifelong Learning Education - Primary Education
    Date: 2012–03
  14. By: Homklin Tassanee (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University); Takahashi Yoshi (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University); Techakanont Kriengkrai (Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University)
    Abstract: Several studies of training evaluation have failed to confirm the hierarchy relationship of reaction, learning, and behavior to results because of the difficulty of evaluating training. Furthermore, research in this area has tended to downplay the importance of level one (reaction) evaluation. In this study, we proposed investigating Kirkpatrick’s four-level hierarchy of training evaluation, focusing specifically on two types of reactions, affective and utility, to predict training outcomes. The results of this study expand our understanding of the progressive causal relationship of reaction, learning, and job behavior to results. In particular, this study highlighted the utility reactions in predicting training effectiveness. Implications and future research directions suggested by the results are also discussed.
    Keywords: Kirkpatrick's training evaluation model, training effectiveness, training evaluation
    JEL: M53
    Date: 2013–05
  15. By: Knapp, S.; Heij, C.; Henderson, R.; Kleverlaan, E.
    Abstract: Since the early 1990's, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has designated fourteen sea areas as Particular Sensitive Sea Areas (PSSA) that enjoy special protection because of their various important attributes and vulnerability to potential harm by increasing shipping activities. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has identified two possible sites for possible designation as PSSA under IMO: the Banc d'Arguin National Park (Mauritania) and the Tubbataha Reef National Park (Philippines). This article presents an integrated framework for the estimation of total risk exposure due to shipping activities and various risk measures for ships trading in the areas of interest. Using a unique and comprehensive combination of data, we test whether ship specific risk increased over time. The results confirm an increase in the considered risk measures of ships trading through or nearby West Africa (Banc d’Arguin) and South-East Asia (Tubbataha) in general and also close to both regions and therefore support the recommendation for an increased level of protection.
    Keywords: binary logistic regression;total risk exposure;observation frequency;change of risk over time;incident probabili
    Date: 2013–06–01
  16. By: World Bank; Australia AID
    Keywords: Education - Access & Equity in Basic Education Education - Education For All Education - Effective Schools and Teachers Education - Primary Education Finance and Financial Sector Development - Public & Municipal Finance Gender - Gender and Education Public Sector Development
    Date: 2012
  17. By: Paolo Manasse; Roberto Savona; Marika Vezzoli
    Abstract: This paper employs a recent statistical algorithm (CRAGGING) in order to build an early warning model for banking crises in emerging markets. We perturb our data set many times and create “artificial” samples from which we estimated our model, so that, by construction, it is flexible enough to be applied to new data for out-of-sample prediction. We find that, out of a large number (540) of candidate explanatory variables, from macroeconomic to balance sheet indicators of the countries’ financial sector, we can accurately predict banking crises by just a handful of variables. Using data over the period from 1980 to 2010, the model identifies two basic types of banking crises in emerging markets: a “Latin American type”, resulting from the combination of a (past) credit boom, a flight from domestic assets, and high levels of interest rates on deposits; and an “Asian type”, which is characterized by an investment boom financed by banks’ foreign debt. We compare our model to other models obtained using more traditional techniques, a Stepwise Logit, a Classification Tree, and an “Average” model, and we find that our model strongly dominates the others in terms of out-of-sample predictive power. JEL: E44, G01, G21 Keywords: Banking Crises, Early Warnings, Regression and Classification Trees, Stepwise Logit
    Date: 2013
  18. By: Ana Badagián; Regina Kaiser; Daniel Peña
    Abstract: In this paper we explore, analyse and apply the change-points detection and location procedures to conditional heteroskedastic processes. We focus on processes that have constant conditional mean, but present a dynamic behavior in the conditional variance and which can also be affected by structural changes. Thus, the goal is to explore, analyse and apply the change-point detection and estimation methods to the situation when the conditional variance of a univariate process is heteroskedastic and exhibits change-points. Based on the fact that a GARCH process can be expressed as an ARMA model in the squares of the variable, we propose to detect and locate change-points by using the Bayesian Information Criterion as an extension of its application in linear models. The proposed procedure is characterized by its computational simplicity, reducing difficulties of the change-point detection in the complex non-linear processes. We compare this procedure with others available in the literature, which are based on cusum methods (Inclán and Tiao (1994), Kokoszka and Leipus (1999), Lee et al. (2004)), informational approach (Fukuda, 2010), minimum description length principle (Davis and Rodriguez-Yam (2008)), and the time varying spectrum (Ombao et al (2002)). We compute the empirical size and power properties by Monte Carlo simulation experiments considering several scenarios. We obtained a good size and power properties in detecting even small magnitudes of change and for low levels of persistence. The procedures were applied to the S\&P500 log returns time series, in order to compare with the results in Andreou and Ghysels (2002) and Davis and Rodriguez-Yam (2008). Changepoints detected by the proposed procedure were similar to the breaks found by the other procedures, and their location can be related with the Southeast Asia financial crisis and with other known financial events.
    Keywords: Heteroskedastic time series, Segmentation, Change-points
    Date: 2013–06
  19. By: Hadi Farhadi (UKM - Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia - School of Psychology and Human Development, Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), Malaysia); Hadi Salehi (IAU, Najafabad - Islamic Azad University, Najafabad - Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Isfahan, Iran); Melor Md Yunus (UKM - Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia - Faculty Of Education, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (ukm), Malaysia); Aghaei Chadegani Arezoo (IAU, Mobarakeh - Islamic Azad University, Mobarakeh - Department of Accounting, Mobarakeh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mobarakeh, Isfahan, Iran); Maryam Farhadi (IAU, Mobarakeh - Islamic Azad University, Mobarakeh - Department of Accounting, Mobarakeh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mobarakeh, Isfahan, Iran); Masood Fooladi (IAU, Mobarakeh - Islamic Azad University, Mobarakeh - Department of Accounting, Mobarakeh Branch); Nader Ale Ebrahim (UM - University of Malaya - Department of Engineering Design and Manufacture, Faculty of Engineering, University of Malaya)
    Abstract: h-index retrieved by citation indexes (Scopus, Google scholar, and Web of Science) is used to measure the scientific performance and the research impact studies based on the number of publications and citations of a scientist. It also is easily available and may be used for performance measures of scientists, and for recruitment decisions. The aim of this study is to investigate the difference between the outputs and results from these three citation databases namely Scopus, Google Scholar, and Web of Science based upon the h-index of a group of highly cited researchers (Nobel Prize winner scientist). The purposive sampling method was adopted to collect the required data. The results showed that there is a significant difference in the h-index between three citation indexes of Scopus, Google scholar, and Web of Science; the Google scholar h-index was more than the h-index in two other databases. It was also concluded that there is a significant positive relationship between h-indices based on Google scholar and Scopus. The citation indexes of Scopus, Google scholar, and Web of Science may be useful for evaluating h-index of scientists but they have some limitations as well.
    Keywords: h-index, Scopus, Google Scholar, Web of Science, Nobel Prize, Physics, Chemistry, Economic Sciences.
    Date: 2013

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