nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2013‒03‒23
ten papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Emerging Geopolitical Trends and Security in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the People’s Republic of China, and India (ACI) Region By Mohan, C. Raja
  2. Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Import Demand of Thailand By Jiranyakul, Komain
  3. The Effects of Trade Openness on Malaysian Exchange Rate By Lee, Chin; Law, Chee-Hong
  4. Status and constraints of costly port rejection : a case from the Vietnamese frozen seafood export industry By Suzuki, Aya; Vu, Hoang Nam
  5. The Role of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Malaysian Post Recession Growth By Lee, Chin
  6. Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations By Leif Anders Thorsrud
  7. The Resources Boom and Economic Policy in the Longer Run By Peter Sheehan; Bob Gregory
  8. South America’s Contribution to World Food Markets: GTAP Projections to 2030 By Anderson, Kym; Strutt, Anna
  9. Forest Conservation Performance Rating (fCPR) Report 2: Bad News for the Pan-Tropics and Everybody Else By David Wheeler, Dan Hammer, and Robin Kraft
  10. Multidimensional Poverty Frontiers: Parametric Aggregators Based on Nonparametric Distributions By Esfandiar Maasoumi; Jeffrey S. Racine

  1. By: Mohan, C. Raja (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The rapid economic growth in the region consisting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and India has begun to change the strategic landscape of the world. This paper provides an assessment of the region’s unfolding geopolitical transformation in recent years and asks if the regional structures in Asia can cope with it. The paper also explores the problems of integrating the two rising Asian powers, the PRC and India, into the structures of global governance. It concludes with a brief discussion on the strategic policy imperatives facing the ACI region.
    Keywords: prc; india; asean; asian geopolitics; east asian regionalism; rising asian powers; global governance
    JEL: F59
    Date: 2013–03–15
  2. By: Jiranyakul, Komain
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on import demand of Thailand. The period of study is during July 1997 to December 2011. The results from bounds testing for cointegration show that all variables are cointegrated. Even though there is no short-run impact, but the long-run negative impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on real imports is large and highly significant under the floating exchange rate regime. In the long run, a rise in real exchange rate uncertainty can improve the country’s trade balance by substantially lowering import demand, but can harm industrial production at the same time. Therefore, stabilization of real effective exchange rate via major nominal exchange rates may deem necessary.
    Keywords: Exchange rate uncertainty, GARCH, imports, ARDL bounds testing
    JEL: F11 F14
    Date: 2013–03
  3. By: Lee, Chin; Law, Chee-Hong
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of trade openness on Malaysian exchange rate. The findings show that most of the variables are statistically significant and carried the expected signs. As predicted by the theory, the rise of the income level and stock market index in Malaysia will lead to the appreciation of domestic currency. On the other hand, the increase in trade openness and interest rate can lead to depreciation of Malaysian Ringgit. In addition, the results suggested that a rise in money supply differential caused RM to appreciate. However, increase in trade balance caused the depreciation of RM.
    Keywords: Exchange Rate, Trade Openness, Malaysia
    JEL: F31 F41 G15
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Suzuki, Aya; Vu, Hoang Nam
    Abstract: While the rising exports have been the source of growth for many developing countries in recent years, the rate of commodities rejected at the ports of developed countries has also been high. Yet why it has remained so despite the costs involved is mostly unknown. This paper takes a case of the frozen seafood export industry in Vietnam and examines the current status of port rejection, roles played by various stakeholders along the value chains, and the constraints faced by the Vietnamese producers and exporters. It concludes with some policy implications, including strengthening the enforcement mechanism of standards compliance particularly at the upstream of the value chain and providing public testing labs for small-scale producers.
    Keywords: Vietnam, Quality control, Marine products, Exports, Port rejection, Quality standards
    JEL: L15 O19
    Date: 2013–03
  5. By: Lee, Chin
    Abstract: This study aims to find out the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in Malaysian post recession growth. The selected macroeconomic variables are exports, imports, price level, money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and government expenditure. The technique of cointegration was employed to assess the long run equilibrium relationships among the variables. Then, this study performs the Granger causality tests based on VECM to establish the short run causality among the variables. The long-run cointegrating relationship shown that an increase in exports, government expenditure or depreciation of exchange rate will promote long-term economic growth while increase in inflation, interest rate and imports will tamper the Malaysian economic growth. The results of short-run Granger-causality indicated that price level and government spending Granger-caused economic growth in the short-run. In conclusion, based on the results of long-run and short run analysis, the fiscal policy is probably the most appropriate tool in promoting economic growth in Malaysia during the post recession period.
    Keywords: Malaysia post recession growth
    JEL: E3 E32 E52 F1 F31 H5
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Leif Anders Thorsrud (BI Norwegian Business School and Norges Bank)
    Abstract: We study the synchronization of real and nominal variables across four different regions of the world, Asia, Europe, North and South America, covering 32 different countries. Employing a FAVAR framework, we distinguish between global and regional demand and supply shocks and document the relative contributions of these shocks to explaining macroeconomic fluctuations and synchronization. Our results support the decoupling hypothesis advanced in recent business cycle studies and yields new insights regarding the causes of business cycle synchronization. In particular, global supply shocks cause more severe activity fluctuations in European and North American economies than in Asian and South American economies, whereas global demand shocks shift activity in the different regions in opposite directions at longer horizons. Furthermore, demand shocks play a larger role than that found in related studies. Finally, only innovations to the Asian activity and price factors have significant spillover effects on shared global factors, demonstrating the growing importance of Asia in the global economy.
    Keywords: Business cycles, Factor model, Globalization, International macro
    JEL: C11 C38 F41 F44
    Date: 2013–02–27
  7. By: Peter Sheehan; Bob Gregory
    Abstract: A major economic impact on Australia of the rise of Asia has been through the resources sector. Australia is experiencing the biggest and most sustained resources boom in its history, and over the past decade has sustained economic growth well in advance of its developed country comparators. The mining boom is yet to run its full course, but at this stage the lift in Australian income levels, compared to Australian OECD Europe and US relativities of a decade ago, is probably of the order of 25 per cent. We think of this extraordinary mining boom as moving through three stages: the increase in the terms of trade, an induced mining investment response and finally a significant increase in mining exports. This paper explores the implications and policy issues arising as the mining boom passes through these three phases. The emphasis is firmly placed on the medium term and the analysis is stripped back to what we regard as the essential elements of economic outcomes and needed policy responses as the mining boom runs its course.
    Date: 2013–03
  8. By: Anderson, Kym; Strutt, Anna
    Abstract: Revision of a paper presented at the IATRC/IAAE Pre-Congress Symposium on Globalization, Macroeconomic Imbalances, and South America as the World’s Food Basket, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 18 August 2012.
    Keywords: Global economy-wide model projections, Asian economic growth and structural change, South-South trade, booming sector economics, food security, International Development, International Relations/Trade, D58, F13, F15, F17, Q17,
    Date: 2013–02
  9. By: David Wheeler, Dan Hammer, and Robin Kraft
    Abstract: This paper updates Working Paper 294, “FCPR—Forest Conservation Performance Rating for the Pan-Tropics.” Forest Conservation Performance Rating (fCPR) is a system of color-coded ratings for tropical forest conservation performance that can be implemented for local areas, countries, regions, and the entire pan-tropics. The ratings reward tropical forest conservation in three dimensions: (1) Progress toward elimination of tropical forest clearing by 2050; (2) progress toward achieving more ambitious REDD+ goals; and (3) achieving an immediate reduction in forest clearing. We assign green ratings to areas that meet condition (2); yellow to areas that meet (1) only; dark red to areas that fail both conditions, with forest clearing still increasing; and light red to areas that fail both conditions, but with declining forest clearing. This paper introduces quarterly conservation performance ratings for 56 tropical forest countries, as well as 781 of their states and provinces that contain tropical forests. We also combine the fCPR country ratings to produce ratings for major regions and the entire pan- tropics. Overall, we find that conservation performance has deteriorated significantly since 2005 at the global and regional levels. Some gains were made at the height of the global economic crisis, but they have proven to be temporary. Since 2010, forest clearing has exhibited rapid growth in most of tropical Asia, Latin America and Africa.
    Keywords: forests, conservation, satellite imagery
    JEL: Q20 Q23 Q27
    Date: 2013–03
  10. By: Esfandiar Maasoumi; Jeffrey S. Racine
    Abstract: We propose a new technique for the estimation of multidimensional evaluation functions. Technical advances allow nonparametric inference on the joint distribution of continuous and discrete indicators of well-being, such as income and health, conditional on joint values of other continuous and discrete attributes, such as education and geographical groupings. In a multiattribute setting, "quantiles" are "frontiers" that define equivalent sets of covariate values. We identify these frontiers nonparametrically at first. Then we suggest "parametrically equivalent" characterizations of these frontiers that reveal likely, but different, weights for and substitutions between different attributes for different groups, and at different quantiles. These estimated parametric functionals are "ideal" in a certain sense which we make clear. They correspond directly to measures of aggregate well-being popularized in the earliest multidimensional inequality measures in Maasoumi (1986). This new approach resolves a classic problem of assigning weights to dimensions of well-being, as well as empirically incorporating the key component in multidimensional analysis, the relationship between the attributes. It introduces a new way to robust estimation of "quantile frontiers", allowing "complete" assessments, such as multidimensional poverty measurements. We discover massive heterogeneity in individual evaluation functions. This leads us to perform robust, weak uniform rankings as afforded by nonparametric tests for stochastic dominance. A demonstration is provided based on the Indonesian data analyzed for multidimensional poverty in Maasoumi & Lugo (2008).
    Date: 2013–03

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