nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2012‒07‒01
nine papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. The impacts of natural disasters on global supply chains By Masato Abe; Linghe Ye
  2. Using Engel Curves to Measure CPI Bias for Indonesia By Susan Olivia; John Gibson
  3. Thailand's 2011 flooding: Its impact on direct exports and global supply chains By Aekapol Chongvilaivan
  4. Determinants of market integration and price transmission in Indonesia By Varela, Gonzalo; Aldaz-Carroll, Enrique; Iacovone, Leonardo
  5. The Effects of Rural Land Right Security on Labour Structural Transformation and Urbanization: Evidence from Thailand By , Thanyaporn
  6. Unemployment Insurance, Job Search and Informal Employment By Margolis, David Naum; Navarro, Lucas; Robalino, David A.
  7. Social Capital, Network Effects and Savings in Rural Vietnam By Newman, Carol; Tarp, Finn; Van Den Broeck, Katleen
  8. Stochastic Dominance Statistics for Risk Averters and Risk Seekers: An Analysis of Stock Preferences for USA and China By Zhidong Bai; Hua Li; Michael McAleer; Wing-Keung Wong
  9. Ordinal Welfare Comparisons with Multiple Discrete Indicators:A First Order Dominance Approach and Application to Child Poverty By Arndt, Channing; Distante, Roberta; Hussain, M. Azhar; Osterdal, Lars Peter; Huong, Pham Lan

  1. By: Masato Abe; Linghe Ye (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP))
    Abstract: This paper explores how global supply chains expand the risks of natural disasters and how natural disasters affect supply chain operations in the Asia-Pacific context.
    Keywords: Globalization, global supply chain, cross-border business and production networks, international logistics system, natural disaster risk, Japan, Thailand
    JEL: F2 F16
    Date: 2012–06
  2. By: Susan Olivia (Monash University); John Gibson (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: To measure real income growth over time a price index is needed to adjust for changes in the cost of living. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is often used for this task but studies from several countries show the CPI is a biased measure of changes in the cost of living, leading to potentially wrong estimates of the rate of growth of real income. In this paper CPI bias for Indonesia is calculated by estimating food Engel curves for households with the same level of CPI-deflated incomes at four different points in time between 1993 and 2008. The results suggest CPI bias was initially negative during the Asian Crisis but has been positive since 2000. Over the entire period, CPI bias has averaged four percent annually, equivalent to almost one-third of the measured inflation rate.
    Keywords: CPI bias; Engel curve; inflation; measurement error
    JEL: C43 E31
    Date: 2012–06–21
  3. By: Aekapol Chongvilaivan (Institute of Southeast Asian Studies)
    Abstract: Based on the experience of Thailand’s flooding in 2011, this study examines the extent to which the supply chain disruptions are translated into plunges in production and export performance, and explores how companies can effectively manage the risks and cope with supply chain breakdowns.
    Keywords: Production networks, just-in-time procurement, supply chain disruptions, Thailand, flooding
    JEL: F14 F23
    Date: 2012–05
  4. By: Varela, Gonzalo; Aldaz-Carroll, Enrique; Iacovone, Leonardo
    Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of price differences and market integration among Indonesian provinces, using data from retail cooking oil, rice and sugar markets during the period 1993-2007, and from wholesale maize and soybean markets during the period 1992-2006. The authors measure the degree of integration using co-integration techniques, and calculate average price differences. They use regression analysis to understand the drivers of price differences and market integration. For rice and sugar, they find wide market integration and low price differences, in the range of 5-12 percent. For maize, soybeans and cooking oil, they find less integration and higher price differences (16-22 percent). Integration across provinces is explained by the remoteness and quality of transport infrastructure of a province. Price differences across provinces respond to differences in provincial characteristics such as remoteness, transport infrastructure, output of the commodity, land productivity and income per capita.
    Keywords: Markets and Market Access,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Access to Markets,Climate Change Economics,Emerging Markets
    Date: 2012–06–01
  5. By: , Thanyaporn
    Abstract: This paper attempts to contribute to the understanding of the impacts of secure rural agricultural land rights on labour structural transformation from agriculture to non-agriculture as well as on urbanization, with a specific focus on Thailand. Using pro
    Keywords: land right security, labour structural transformation, urbanization
    Date: 2012
  6. By: Margolis, David Naum (World Bank); Navarro, Lucas (Universidad Alberto Hurtado); Robalino, David A. (World Bank)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the potential impacts of introducing unemployment insurance (UI) in middle income countries using the case of Malaysia, which today does not have such a system. The analysis is based on a job search model with unemployment and three employment sectors: formal and informal wage employment, and self employment. The parameters of the model are estimated to replicate the structure of the labor market in Malaysia in 2009 and the distribution of earnings for informal, formal and self employed workers. The results suggest that unemployment insurance would have only a modest negative effect on unemployment if benefits are not overly generous. The main effect would be a reallocation of labor from wage into self employment while increasing average wages in the formal and informal sectors.
    Keywords: unemployment insurance, informal sector, self employment, job search
    JEL: J64 J65 O17 J23 J31 J21 J62
    Date: 2012–06
  7. By: Newman, Carol; Tarp, Finn; Van Den Broeck, Katleen
    Abstract: Information failures are a major barrier to formal financial saving in low income countries. Households in rural communities often lack the information necessary to set up formal deposit accounts or are uncertain about the returns to saving formally. In t
    Keywords: household savings, social capital, information failure, women.s unions, Vietnam
    Date: 2012
  8. By: Zhidong Bai (KLASMOE and School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, Department of Statistics and Applied Probability and Risk Management Institute, National University of Singapore); Hua Li (Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Department of Quantitative Economics, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.); Wing-Keung Wong (Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University)
    Abstract: We derive the limiting process of the stochastic dominance statistics for risk averters as well as for risk seekers when the underlying processes might be dependent or independent. We take account of the dependency of the partitions and propose a bootstrap method to decide the critical point. In addition, we illustrate the applicability of the stochastic dominance statistics for both risk averters and risk seekers to analyze the dominance relationship between the Chinese and US stock markets in the entire period as well as the sub-periods before and after the ¯nancial crises, including the internet bubble and the recent sub-prime crisis. The ¯ndings could be used to draw inferences on the preferences of risk averters and risk seekers in investing in the Chinese and US stock markets. The results also enable us to examine whether there is any arbitrage opportunity in these markets and whether these markets are e±cient and investors are rational.
    Keywords: Stochastic dominance, risk aversion, risk seeking, test statistic, hypothesis testing.
    JEL: C12 G1 G12 G15
    Date: 2012–06
  9. By: Arndt, Channing; Distante, Roberta; Hussain, M. Azhar; Osterdal, Lars Peter; Huong, Pham Lan
    Abstract: We develop an approach for making welfare comparisons between populations with multidimensional discrete well-being indicators observed at the micro level. The approach is rooted in the concept of multidimensional first order dominance. It assumes that, f
    Keywords: ordinal; welfare; multi-dimensional poverty measurement; first order dominance; Mozambique; Vietnam
    Date: 2012

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