nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2012‒05‒22
eleven papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. The inverted Chinese / China problem in Indonesia : a preliminary analysis on the 2011 Surabaya incident By Aizawa, Nobuhiro
  2. FDI to Japan and Trade Flows: A Comparison of BRICs, Asian Tigers and Developed Countries By Serge REY; Jacques JAUSSAUD
  3. Implications of India-Asean Fta on India’s fisheries sector By Sarath Chandran, B.P.
  4. Narrowing the Gaps through Regional Cooperation Institutions and Governance Systems By Wyes, Heinrich-Wilhelm; Lewandowski, Michael
  5. Relative price effects of monetary policy shock in Malaysia: a svar study By Abdul Karim, Zulkefly; Zaidi , Mohd. Azlan Shah; W.N.W, Azman-Saini
  6. Regional payment systems: A comparative perspective on Europe and the developing world By Fritz, Barbara; Biancareli, André; Mühlich, Laurissa
  7. Do "green" state measures make import patterns "climate-friendly"? The case of the Asia-Pacific region By Martin Wermelinger
  8. Efficiency and Productivity of Singapore's Manufacturing Sector 2001-2010: An analysis using Simar and Wilson's (2007) bootstrapped truncated approach By Boon L Lee
  9. Evolution of Financing Needs in Indian Infrastructure By Sinha, Pankaj; Arya, Deepshikha; Singh, Shuchi
  10. Approximating stochastic volatility by recombinant trees By Erdinc Akyildirim; Yan Dolinsky; H. Mete Soner
  11. An Economic Analysis of Optimum Population Size Achieved Through Boosting Total Fertility and Net Immigration By Hoon Hian Teck

  1. By: Aizawa, Nobuhiro
    Abstract: A clash between the police and journalists covering a Falun Gong gathering in Surabaya 2011 have shown a significant change in understanding the triangular relationship between Indonesia, China and the Ethnic Chinese in Indonesia. During the Suharto period, ethnic Chinese in Indonesia and China as a foreign state were the problems for the Indonesian government. After the political reforms in Indonesia together with the Rise of China in 2000s, in some situation, it is the Indonesian government together with the Chinese government which is the problem for some ethnic Chinese in Indonesia. Ethnic Chinese people were seen to be close with China and their loyalty to the nation was doubted. But now it is the Indonesian government which is viewed as being too close to China and thus harming national integrity, and suspected of being unnationalistic.
    Keywords: Indonesia, China, Overseas Chinese, Ethnic problem, Citizenship, Foreign relations, Journalism, Indonesian politics, Rise of China, Ethnic Chinese, Freedom of Press, Sovereignty
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Serge REY; Jacques JAUSSAUD
    Abstract: FDI to Japan and Trade Flows: A Comparison of BRICs, Asian Tigers and Developed Countries
    Date: 2012–03
  3. By: Sarath Chandran, B.P.
    Abstract: India and ASEAN signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in trade in goods which came to effect from 1st January 2010. There were apprehensions on the likely impact of this RTA on some sensitive sectors of India such as agriculture, fisheries and plantation crop as large number of people depend on these sectors for their livelihood. India is a large consumer of marine products and export also export part of the catch to international markets (1.7 percent in total world export in 2007). Some of the ASEAN partners of India namely Thailand (5.82%), Vietnam (3.86) and Indonesia (2.14%) have larger presence in international fisheries trade and there is a possibility that they can export these products in to India in the post FTA period. In this context the paper looked in to the various provisions of India ASEAN FTA on fisheries sector and calculated trade complementarity and similarity using different trade indices. The paper found that India has taken adequate precaution to protect its marine sector from large scale dumping. The apprehension that India-ASEAN FTA will lead to substantial import of marine products in to India is unfounded.
    Keywords: Regional Trade Agreements; Revealed Comparative Advantage; Fisheries; India;ASEAN
    JEL: F15 F10 F14
    Date: 2012–05–07
  4. By: Wyes, Heinrich-Wilhelm (Asian Development Bank Institute); Lewandowski, Michael (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Regional governance systems and national frameworks to address climate change and accelerate green growth in Asia are reviewed and tools to address climate change are outlined. Options for regional level political institutions and financial architecture needed to fulfill voluntary pledges and programs are suggested and potentials, options, and challenges regarding monitoring, reporting, and verification systems are analyzed. In conclusion, policy measures for adaption and mitigation to climate change are provided.
    Keywords: climate change; green growth; asia
    JEL: H87
    Date: 2012–05–08
  5. By: Abdul Karim, Zulkefly; Zaidi , Mohd. Azlan Shah; W.N.W, Azman-Saini
    Abstract: Studies on Malaysia monetary policy mostly examine the effect of monetary policy change on output and inflation in aggregate terms. While sectoral output effects of monetary policy have also been investigated, there is however a lack in the study on the effect of policy change on disaggregated inflation. This paper attempts to examine the later issue by employing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. By estimating the model separately for each sub-group of Malaysian consumer price index, we find that a modest monetary policy shock results in varying degree of responses in disaggregated inflation. In other words, some sub-group inflation react instantly while others respond sluggishly to a monetary policy shock. In contrast to aggregate inflation response, there is also evidence of price puzzle. The results give some insight to monetary authority on how to control inflation in aggregate as well as in disaggregate terms and in turn manage the cost of living issues in Malaysia.
    Keywords: monetary policy; SVAR; inflation; relative price
    JEL: C32 E31 E52
    Date: 2011–06–15
  6. By: Fritz, Barbara; Biancareli, André; Mühlich, Laurissa
    Abstract: The current global financial non-system is marked by instability. In the absence of global solutions, a series of regional arrangements of monetary cooperation have been emerging to cope with such instability. The paper focuses on regional payment systems as an initial step of regional monetary cooperation. In order to evaluate their potential contribution to increase macroeconomic stability of the member countries, we develop a typology of payments systems and systematically compare historic and present initiatives in Europe, Asia and Latin America with reference to the original Keynes Plan. We show that regional payment systems entail beneficial effects by reducing transaction costs of intraregional trade, and by creating incentives for further macroeconomic cooperation. Their contribution to macroeconomic stabilization however depends on the specific design of the respective regional arrangement. --
    Date: 2012
  7. By: Martin Wermelinger
    Abstract: This paper estimates to what extent "green" crisis-era measures have an impact on the "climate-friendliness" of imports in the Asia-Pacific region. Testable predictions and the empirical strategy are derived from the seminal paper of Eaton and Kortum (2002). The empirical results show that at the intensive margin implemented "green" measures are associated with an increase of sourcing from more rather than less energy intensive countries. One reason for this surprising result may be that governments have presented the state interventions as being "green" although the main purpose was not the environment. At the extensive margin, results are slightly more promising. The implementation of "green" measures seems to decrease the likelihood that imports are sourced from a relatively more energy intensive origin. However, the results are not very strong as to statistical and economic significance. In sum, only limited evidence for environmental benefits of "green" crisis-era interventions through the import channel exist. The implementation of such measures may in fact be associated with an environmental degradation of imports. Moreover, supplier countries being "close" competitors to the interventionist country (in terms of technology levels) relatively loose import share if discriminatory "green" measures are implemented. Stated differently, the alleged "green" measures protect domestic against foreign suppliers with similar technology levels.
    Keywords: international trade, trade policy, green growth
    JEL: F13 F18
    Date: 2012–05
  8. By: Boon L Lee (QUT)
    Abstract: This paper seeks to explain the lagging productivity in Singapore's manufacturing noted in the statements of the Economic Strategies Committee Report 2010. Two methods are employed: the Malmquist productivity to measure total factor productivity change and Simar and Wilson's (J Econ, 136:31–64, 2007) bootstrapped truncated regression approach. In the first stage, the nonparametric data envelopment analysis is used to measure technical efficiency. To quantify the economic drivers underlying inefficiencies, the second stage employs a bootstrapped truncated regression whereby bias-corrected efficiency estimates are regressed against explanatory variables. The findings reveal that growth in total factor productivity was attributed to efficiency change with no technical progress. Most industries were technically inefficient throughout the period except for 'Pharmaceutical Products'. Sources of efficiency were attributed to quality of worker and flexible work arrangements while incessant use of foreign workers lowered efficiency.
    Keywords: Bootstrap truncated regression; technical efficiency; data envelopment analysis; total-factor productivity; efficiency change; technical change; Malmquist productivity index; Singapore manufacturing
    JEL: C14 D24 L60 O14 O33
    Date: 2012–05–14
  9. By: Sinha, Pankaj; Arya, Deepshikha; Singh, Shuchi
    Abstract: India has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies even in the difficult financial downturn era. In coming years, India will be demanding a large number of infrastructure services to match the demand and keep an upward sloping growth curve. Indian infrastructure including both soft (port services, air and telecom) and hard (road, railways and airways) infrastructure is growing at a fast pace at present. The country also has largest road network (3.34 million km) and second largest rail network of the world. Requirement for investment in infrastructure projects was expected to increase by 145.6% from Five Year Plan 2002-07 to FYP 2007-11. Part of the investment is expected to come from the various resources as public private partnerships and public investments. Indian government is also trying to experiment with different tools of PPP (public private partnerships) financing such as VGF (viability gap financing), SPV (special purpose vehicle) to decrease the deficits on the accounts of infrastructure. This paper studies the evolution of financing needs and consequential innovative methodologies in Indian infrastructure. Government has made various efforts to match the growth in infrastructure with country’s economy growth. However, Indian infrastructure is still lagging behind globally. This study analyzes existing frameworks available for financing and risk involved in them. India has lot of opportunity to grow using public private partnership model, but still the numbers of project financed are very less. We also have studied project financing model and capital financing model which are used by various competitive countries to India. A regression analysis has been conducted on a macroeconomic model of investment in infrastructure which takes into account the exogenous variables interest rate, inflation rate, foreign exchange rate (USD/INR) and nominal gross domestic product based on Indian data from 1987-2010. Here we study how changes in any one of the aforementioned factors impact the infrastructure investment. The paper also tries to find out the correlation between and trends followed by CNX Infra and S&P 500 based on daily time series for both. A comparative analysis of two South Asian countries namely South Korea and Malaysia has been carried out with respect to India. The objective of this study is to find out what are the similarities and complementarities between the infrastructure investments of these countries and India. This helps in suggesting which ways India can move forward in order to optimize and align its infrastructure development with its continuously burgeoning needs. Finally, we have made our recommendation to facilitate infrastructure financing optimally by removing the externalities from the existing system. We also suggest a few innovative ways to finance infrastructure in India which might prove successful.
    Keywords: Infrastructure financing; PPP (public private partnerships); Risk mitigation; capital financing
    JEL: E62 C20 G38
    Date: 2012–04–13
  10. By: Erdinc Akyildirim; Yan Dolinsky; H. Mete Soner
    Abstract: A general method to construct recombinant tree approximations for stochastic volatility models is developed and applied to the Heston model for stock price dynamics. In this application, the resulting approximation is a four tuple Markov process. The ?first two components are related to the stock and volatility processes and take values in a two dimensional Binomial tree. The other two components of the Markov process are the increments of random walks with simple values in {-1; +1}. The resulting effi?cient option pricing equations are numerically implemented for general American and European options including the standard put and calls, barrier, lookback and Asian type pay-o?ffs. The weak and extended weak convergence are also proved.
    Date: 2012–05
  11. By: Hoon Hian Teck (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: Without net immigration, the population size is projected to decline from 2025 on- ward. Does it matter? To answer this question, the paper proceeds in two main parts. In the first part, taking a citizen's utility as a measure of welfare, we identify the channels through which a larger population size reduces welfare, on the one hand, and increases welfare on the other hand. The optimum population size is achieved when the net resul- tant effect of all these channels leaves citizens' welfare at the maximum. When current and projected total fertility rates without net immigration lead to a projected path of actual population size that glides below the path of optimum population size, the policy question is how best to boost population increase to reach the optimum. The second part of the paper analyzes the costs to Singapore society of reaching the optimum by measures to boost total fertility rate, on the one hand, and allowing net immigration flows on the other hand. A starting point of economic analysis uses neoclassical growth theory to demonstrate how an increase in population size reduces per capita consumption and hence utility via a "capital dilution" channel. With a limited land size, an increase in population size raises population density, which lowers welfare through a "congestion" channel. The paper, however, identifies four other channels through which a larger population size increases welfare. These are a "tax base" channel, a "Mozart effect" channel, a "human capital externalities" channel, and an "Okun's Law" channel. To analyze the costs to Singapore's national budget of boosting the total fertility rate, we start off with the classic Becker model of fertility decisions and quantity-quality trade- off. When parents value both the quantity as well as human capital level ("quality") of children, the Becker model predicts that when parents' incomes rise, they choose quality over quantity. (This can be called a level effect.) When education boosts a child's human capital, and higher growth rates raise the marginal productivity of parental investment in a child's human capital, the expected decline in GDP growth rates as the Singapore economy matures would boost total fertility. (This can be called a growth effect.) The impact of policy measures such as parental leave, childcare subsidy and the Baby Bonus on total fertility rate can be analyzed in terms of substitution and income effects. The costs to Singapore society of net immigration, apart from scal subsidies to attract potential immigrants, would appear to come from its impact on social capital. In particular, a recent concept of "identity economics" - that an individual's payoff or utility is affected by identification with particular social categories - can help us understand the nature of the cost of achieving a given increase in population via net immigration. The optimal mix of measures to boost total fertility rate and allowing net immigration flows to achieve a given increase in the size of population equates the marginal cost of the two approaches. Forging a national identity is an investment that can lower the cost of achieving a given increase in population size.
    Date: 2012–05

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