nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2012‒05‒15
thirteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Developing Asia’s Pension Systems and Old-Age Income Support By Park, Donghyun; Estrada, Gemma
  2. Media Exposure and Internal Migration – Evidence from Indonesia By Lidia Farré; Francesco Fasani
  3. Is East Asia’s Economic Fate Chained to the West? By Alyson C. Ma; Ari Van Assche
  4. Autocracies and Development in a Global Economy: A Tale of Two Elites By Anders Akerman; Anna Larsson; Alireza Naghavi
  5. Comparative analysis of bilateral memoranda on anti-human trafficking cooperation between Thailand and three neighboring countries : what do the origin and the destination states agree upon? By Yamada, Miwa
  6. Long-term impacts of global food crisis on production decisions : evidence from farm investments in Indonesia By Nose, Manabu; Yamauchi, Futoshi
  7. Outsourcing and corporate social responsibility : Apple in China By Urakami, Kiyoshi
  8. Role of supply chains in adopting product related environmental regulations : case studies of Vietnam By Michida, Etsuyo; Nabeshima, Kaoru
  9. Gender and rural non-farm entrepreneurship By Rijkers, Bob; Costa, Rita
  10. Modeling with Limited Data: Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia By Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
  11. Do Migrant Girls Always Perform Better? Differences between the Reading and Math Scores of 15-Year-Old Daughters and Sons of Migrants in PISA 2009 and Variations by Region of Origin and Country of Destination By Nils Kornder; Jaap Dronkers
  12. Modelling Long Memory Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Futures Returns By Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat
  13. The People’s Republic of China’s High-tech Exports: Myth and Reality By Xing, Yuqing

  1. By: Park, Donghyun (Asian Development Bank Institute); Estrada, Gemma (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Old-age income support is becoming an issue of growing importance throughout Asia. This is especially true in East and Southeast Asia where the population is aging. This paper provides a broad overview of the current state of pension systems in the People’s Republic of China, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam; analyzes the pension systems; and identifies their major structural weaknesses. The paper concludes with some specific policy directions for pension reform to strengthen the capacity of Asian pension systems in delivering economic security for the large and growing population of elderly looming on the region’s horizon.
    Keywords: asia; pension systems; old-age income support; population aging; pension reform
    JEL: H55 J11 J14
    Date: 2012–05–07
  2. By: Lidia Farré; Francesco Fasani
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of television on internal migration in Indonesia. We exploit the differential introduction of private television throughout the country and the variation in signal reception due to topography to estimate the causal effect of media exposure. Our estimates reveal important long and short run effects. An increase of one standard deviation in the number of private TV channels received in the area of residence reduces future inter-provincial migration by 1.7-2.7 percentage points, and all migration (inter and intra-provincial) by 4-7.4 percentage points. Short run effects are slightly smaller, but still sizeable and statistically significant. We also show that respondents less exposed to private TV are more likely to consider themselves among the poorest groups of the society. As we discuss in a stylized model of migration choice under imperfect information, these findings are consistent with Indonesia citizens over-estimating the net gains from internal migration.
    Keywords: Information; Migration decisions; Television
    JEL: J61 L82 O15
    Date: 2011–09
  3. By: Alyson C. Ma; Ari Van Assche
    Abstract: In the past few decades, East Asia has become a key player in the global value chains of products that are consumed in Western markets. In this paper, we discuss how idiosyncratic shocks propagate through global value chains, and assess how this has affected East Asian countries’ vulnerability to demand shocks in the West. <P>
    Keywords: global value chains, international trade, East Asia, international transmission of business cycles,
    Date: 2012–05–01
  4. By: Anders Akerman; Anna Larsson; Alireza Naghavi
    Abstract: Data on the growth performances of countries with similar comparative (dis)advantage and political institutions reveal a striking variation across world regions. While some former autocracies such as the East Asian growth miracles have done remarkably well, others such as the Latin American economies have grown at much lower rates. In this paper, we propose a political economy explanation of these diverging paths of development by addressing the preferences of the country's political elite. We build a theoretical framework where factors of production owned by the political elites differ across countries. In each country, the incumbent autocrat will cater to the preferences of the elites when setting trade policy and the property rights regime. We show how stronger property rights may lead to capital accumulation and labor reallocation to the manufacturing sector. This, in turn, can lead to a shift in the comparative advantage, a decision to open up to trade and an inflow of more productive foreign capital. Consistent with a set of stylised facts on East Asia and Latin America, we argue that strong property rights are crucial for success upon globalization.
    Keywords: Autocracy, Growth, Political Elites, Landowners, Capitalists, Growth Miracles, Trade, Comparative Advantage, Capital Mobility, Property Rights
    Date: 2011–09
  5. By: Yamada, Miwa
    Abstract: In order to prevent, suppress and punish human trafficking, bilateral agreements between origin of victim countries and destination countries are crucial, because their cooperation involves cross-border activities such as repatriation of victims, extradition of criminals and information-sharing. This article analyzes three bilateral legal instruments between The Government of The Kingdom of Thailand and her three neighboring countries, namely The Royal Government of Cambodia, The Government of Lao People's Democratic Republic and The Government of The Union of Myanmar. The analysis will examine the legal status of the victim, the victim as witness in criminal proceedings, the victim protection programs, the recovery and restitution of damages, the process of repatriating the victim, and the prosecution of the criminal.
    Keywords: Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, International agreements, International crime, Human rights, Children, Prostitution, Women, Human Trafficking, Memorandum of Understanding, Origin country, Destination country, Bilateral Cooperation
    Date: 2012–03
  6. By: Nose, Manabu; Yamauchi, Futoshi
    Abstract: Did the rise in food prices have a long-term impact on agricultural production? Using household-level panel data from seven provinces of Indonesia, this paper finds that the price shock created a forward-looking incentive to invest, which can dynamically enhance productivity in agriculture. It also finds that the impact of the price shock on investment behavior differs by initial wealth. In response to price increases, wealthy farmers invested more in productive assets, while poor farmers increased their financial savings as well as consumption. Price spikes relax liquidity constraints, which increases investments among the richer while do so savings and consumptions among the poor, possibly leading to diverging income inequality in the long run.
    Keywords: Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access,Food&Beverage Industry,Regional Economic Development,Rural Poverty Reduction
    Date: 2012–05–01
  7. By: Urakami, Kiyoshi
    Abstract: Electronics industry has seen a tremendous industry shift from the developed countries to the emerging regions such as East and South Asia, particularly during the past four decades. And we can now see a huge industrial capability accumulation in Asia. This research note aims at, firstly, describing basic nature and structure of outsourcing business in Asia, and, secondly, we look into Apple Inc.'s supply chain to examine Apple supplier factory operations in Mainland China from, primarily, an environmental protection point of view. Based on the initial observation, it is pertinent to say that it is Apple Inc’s social corporate responsibility to address recently raised environmental issues and to create a socially responsible supply chain in China.
    Keywords: outsourcing; supply chain; supplier responsibility; corporate social responsibility
    JEL: M14 F23
    Date: 2012–05–07
  8. By: Michida, Etsuyo; Nabeshima, Kaoru
    Abstract: This paper shows some findings how product related environmental regulations, especially those that relate to management of chemical substances affect firms in Asia. Interviews were conducted for some firms in Vietnam that are part of global supply chains of electrical and electronic, furniture, and plastic industries. The global supply chains with MNC lead firms have helped local firms in developing countries to adopt technical PRERs overseas. On the other hand, indigenous firms that do not belong to global value chains might face hurdles to keep exporting to the regulated markets. PRERs could become a barrier for firms that attempt to the regulated markets without supports by MNC lead firms.
    Keywords: Vietnam, Environmental problems, International trade, Chemical industry, Economic development, Environment, Chemicals, Regulations, Firms, Trade
    JEL: F23 Q56 Q58 O44
    Date: 2012–03
  9. By: Rijkers, Bob; Costa, Rita
    Abstract: Despite their increasing prominence in policy debates, little is known about gender inequities in non-agricultural labor market outcomes in rural areas. Using matched household-enterprise-community data sets from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, this paper documents and analyzes gender differences in the individual portfolio choice and productivity of non-farm entrepreneurship. Except for Ethiopia, women are less likely than men to become nonfarm entrepreneurs. Women's nonfarm entrepreneurship isn't strongly correlated with household composition or educational attainment, but is especially prevalent amongst women who are the head of their household. Female-led firms are much smaller and less productive on average, though gender differences in productivity vary dramatically across countries. Mean differences in log output per worker suggest that male firms are roughly 10 times as productive as female firms in Bangladesh, three times as those in Ethiopia and twice as those in Sri Lanka. By contrast, no significant differences in labor productivity were detected in Indonesia. Differences in output per worker are overwhelmingly accounted for by sorting by sector and size. They can't be explained by differences in capital intensity, human capital or the local investment climate, nor by increasing returns to scale.
    Keywords: Access to Finance,Gender and Development,Housing&Human Habitats,Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies
    Date: 2012–05–01
  10. By: Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
    Abstract: This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics’. The framework is used to forecast potential growth for Cambodia, and to conduct simulations about the main drivers of growth in that country. The main result is that Cambodia compares less favorably against other lower-income Asian economies in terms of its investment rate, which in turn is constrained by the poor quality of its infrastructure. Bridging this gap can lift Cambodia’s potential growth by more than one percentage point.
    Keywords: Economic growth , Economic models , Production growth ,
    Date: 2012–04–11
  11. By: Nils Kornder (University of Maastricht); Jaap Dronkers (University of Maastricht)
    Abstract: As a follow-up of earlier analyses of the educational performance of all pupils with a migration background with Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) waves 2003 and 2006, we analyze the differences between the educational performance of 15-year old daughters and sons of migrants from specific regions of origin countries living in different destination countries. We use the newest PISA 2009 wave. Instead of analyzing only Western countries as destination countries, we analyze the educational performance of 16,612 daughters and 16,804 sons of migrants in destination countries across Asia, Europe, Latin America, and Oceania. We distinguish 62 origin countries and 12 origin areas in 30 destination countries. We test three hypotheses: 1) The daughters of migrants from poorer, more traditional regions perform much better in reading than comparable sons of migrants from the same origin regions, while the daughters of migrants from more affluent and liberal regions perform slightly better in reading than comparable sons of migrants from the same regions. 2) Individual socioeconomic background has a stronger effect on the educational performance of daughters of migrants than on the performance of sons of migrants. 3) The performance of female native pupils has a higher influence on the performance of migrant daughters than the performance of male native pupils has on the performance of migrant sons. The first hypothesis can only partly be accepted. Female migrant pupils have both higher reading and math scores than comparable male migrant pupils, and these gender differences among migrant pupils are larger than among comparable native pupils. The additional variation in educational performance by region of origin is, however, not clearly related to the poverty or traditionalism of regions. Neither the second nor the third hypothesis can be accepted, given our results.
    Date: 2012–05
  12. By: Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Department of Quantitative Economics, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.); Roengchai Tansuchat (Faculty of Economics Maejo University Chiang Mai, Thailand)
    Abstract: This paper estimates a long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat, rubber, and palm oil. The class of fractional GARCH models, namely the FIGARCH model of Baillie et al. (1996), FIEGARCH model of Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996), and FIAPARCH model of Tse (1998), are modelled and compared with the GARCH model of Bollerslev (1986), EGARCH model of Nelson (1991), and APARCH model of Ding et al. (1993). The estimated d parameters, indicating long-term dependence, suggest that fractional integration is found in most of agricultural commodity futures returns series. In addition, the FIGARCH (1,d,1) and FIEGARCH(1,d,1) models are found to outperform their GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) counterparts.
    Keywords: Long memory, agricultural commodity futures, fractional integration, asymmetric, conditional volatility.
    JEL: Q14 Q11 C22 C51
    Date: 2012–05
  13. By: Xing, Yuqing (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Trade statistics portray the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the largest exporter of high-tech products. In this paper the author argues that the PRC’s leading position in high-tech exports is a myth created by outdated trade statistics, which are inconsistent with trade based on global supply chains. Current trade statistics mistakenly credit entire values of assembled high-tech products to the PRC, thus greatly inflating its exports. He suggests that a value-added-based approach should be adopted to accurately measure high-tech exports. Furthermore, if assembly is the only source of the value-added generated by PRC workers, in terms of technological contribution these assembled high-tech exports are no different from labor-intensive products, so they should be excluded from the high-tech classification.
    Keywords: prc; high-tech; value added; iphone
    JEL: F10 F20
    Date: 2012–05–07

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