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on South East Asia |
| By: | Gupta, Abhijit Sen (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the extent of exchange rate coordination among Asian economies using a hypothetical Asian Currency Unit. Rising interdependence among Asian economies makes it vital for these economies to have a certain degree of exchange rate stability. However, the empirical evidence using an Asian Currency Unit suggests a widening deviation in exchange rate movements of the Asian currencies. The deviation has been driven by the adoption of different exchange rate regimes by the participating countries indicating diverse policy objectives. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate coordination; asia; asian currency unit; exchange rate regimes |
| JEL: | F15 F36 F55 |
| Date: | 2012–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0356&r=sea |
| By: | Sanders, Daniel J.; Balagtas, Joseph V.; Gruere, Guillaume |
| Abstract: | In the last 30 years, palm oil production has known a ninefold increase, with almost all production growth concentrated in Malaysia and Indonesia. Several public reports have associated the palm oil boom with extensive deforestation, often pointing to the increase in biofuel demand in developed nations as a main driver of this phenomenon. Other demand drivers, especially as related to the food sector, have not been studied as much. In particular, regulations on genetically modified (GM) food in European nations and on trans fats in a number of developed countries have reportedly induced food companies to switch from soybean oil to palm oil and could therefore have contributed to additional demand for palm oil. This article provides a first analysis of the drivers of growth in palm oil production during the 1980–2010 boom, using a price dynamics analysis of the markets for palm oil, soybean oil, and crude oil. Soybean oil is selected as the leading vegetable oil in food markets, and crude oil is taken to represent the energy sector. We estimate two models of the oil price system: a vector auto regression model that treats all three prices as stationary and a vector error correction model that allows co-integration among the three prices. |
| Keywords: | biofuel, price cointegration, palm oil, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1167&r=sea |
| By: | Tang, Hsiao Chink (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This question is examined via a standard import specification augmented with differential and time-varying impacts of each component of aggregate demand: consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. Several important variables in explaining import demand such as credit conditions and business and consumer sentiment are also included. A panel fixed-effects model adjusted for cross-sectional dependence is estimated for 11 Asian economies from 1Q91 to 2Q11. The result shows the import intensity of exports is the highest among all variables. Alone, however, it does not contribute to a larger fall in imports. The larger decline in imports will be evident if other components of aggregate demand also fall, particularly investment and consumption. A weakened credit condition will also exacerbate the fall in imports. Business and consumer sentiment, however, does not seem to matter. In crisis periods more nuanced results are evident. For example, fiscal contractions may have worsened the fall in imports during the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, while the fall in exports also has an additional adverse impact. Business and consumer sentiment seems to have a lagged positive impact during the global financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | imports; exports; Asia; ASEAN; East Asia; crisis |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F31 |
| Date: | 2012–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbrei:0096&r=sea |
| By: | Gulam Hassan, Mohamed Aslam |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis which erupted in the United States of America in 2007 drove the real economic sector into a crisis that has diminshed the world’s economic growth thereafter. There is no single theory that can explain what has happened in the US. Eventhough there were a few financial crises models, however all the models are “meaningless”. Traditional macroeconomic policies were used to restore the distress economy but the policies seemed to be ineffective. In this regards, heterodox economic perspectives may provide some answers in dealing with such economic crisis that have been experienced by the US. The financial crisis experienced in Asia in 1997-98 could provide some ideas for economic crisis solutions. The aim of this paper is (a) to discuss the financial crisis in the US and East Asia 1997/1998, and (b) to look at unorthodox economic policies that could possibly be considered in dealing with the financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Heterodox Economic Policy; Capital Control |
| JEL: | B50 E60 G01 |
| Date: | 2012–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38206&r=sea |
| By: | Frédérique Bec; Songlin Zeng (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise; THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise) |
| Abstract: | Since the late nineties, both theoretical and empirical analysis devoted to the real exchange rate suggest that their dynamics might be well approximated by nonlinear models. This paper examines this possibility for post-1970 monthly ASEAN-5 data, extending the existing research in two directions. First, we use recently developed unit root tests which allow for more flexible nonlinear stationary models under the alternative than the commonly used Self-Exciting Threshold or Exponantial Smooth Transition AutoRegressions. Second, while different nonlinear models survive the mis-specification tests, a Monte Carlo experiment from generalized impulse response functions is used to compare their relative relevance. Our results i) support the nonlinear mean-reverting hypothesis, and hence the Purchasing Power Parity, in most of the ASEAN-5 countries and ii) point to the Multiple Regime-Logistic Smooth Transition and the Exponantial Smooth Transition AutoRegression models as the most likely data generating processes of these real exchange rates. |
| Keywords: | Purchasing Power Parity, Nonlinear ThresholdModels, Southeast Asian Real Exchange Rates. |
| JEL: | C12 C22 F31 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2012-25&r=sea |
| By: | Amlan Roy (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses what is longevity risk, why it is important, approaches used by the West to manage longevity risk and what lessons can be learnt by Asian countries from the experiences of the West. Increasing and uncertain longevity has emerged as a key risk affecting individuals, pension plans, insurers and governments in both the developed and emerging world. I discuss progress in the field of longevity modelling and the merits as well as drawbacks of these models. In Western countries, attempts have been made by capital market and governments to deal with longevity risk, but the availability of solutions remain limited. Further developments should focus on creating a set of instruments that are effective, economically affordable, and transparently priced. It is important to understand, measure, and manage longevity risk. Moreover, further pension reforms are needed to address the root of the problem. For Asian countries, the experience of the West provides ample guidance in formulating their pension plans and promoting capital market developments to avoid the same predicament the West is now struggling with. Simple cost-effective solutions linking retirement ages to longevity, efficiently engaging women and older workers in the work force for longer, education and technology driven flexible work practices, along with preventing productive human capital outflows ought to be considered seriously in Asia. |
| Keywords: | Longevity Risk, Asia, pension reforms, Capital Markets |
| JEL: | G17 G22 G23 E24 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:develo:23296&r=sea |
| By: | Amlan Roy (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses what is longevity risk, why it is important, approaches used by the West to manage longevity risk and what lessons can be learnt by Asian countries from the experiences of the West. Increasing and uncertain longevity has emerged as a key risk affecting individuals, pension plans, insurers and governments in both the developed and emerging world. I discuss progress in the field of longevity modelling and the merits as well as drawbacks of these models. In Western countries, attempts have been made by capital market and governments to deal with longevity risk, but the availability of solutions remain limited. Further developments should focus on creating a set of instruments that are effective, economically affordable, and transparently priced. It is important to understand, measure, and manage longevity risk. Moreover, further pension reforms are needed to address the root of the problem. For Asian countries, the experience of the West provides ample guidance in formulating their pension plans and promoting capital market developments to avoid the same predicament the West is now struggling with. Simple cost-effective solutions linking retirement ages to longevity, efficiently engaging women and older workers in the work force for longer, education and technology driven flexible work practices, along with preventing productive human capital outflows ought to be considered seriously in Asia. |
| Keywords: | Longevity Risk, Asia, pension reforms, Capital Markets |
| JEL: | G17 G22 G23 E24 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:govern:23296&r=sea |
| By: | McMillan, Margaret; Rodrik, Dani |
| Abstract: | Large gaps in labor productivity between the traditional and modern parts of the economy are a fundamental reality of developing societies. In this paper, we document these gaps and emphasize that labor flows from low-productivity activities to high-productivity activities are a key driver of development. Our results show that since 1990 structural change has been growth-reducing in both Africa and Latin America, with the most striking changes taking place in Latin America. The bulk of the difference between these countries' productivity performance and that of Asia is accounted for by differences in the pattern of structural change—with labor moving from low- to high-productivity sectors in Asia, but in the opposite direction in Latin America and Africa. In our empirical work, we identify three factors that help determine whether—and, if so, the extent to which—structural change contributes to overall productivity growth. In countries with a relatively large share of natural resources in exports, structural change has typically been growth-reducing. Even though these enclave sectors usually operate at very high productivity, they cannot absorb the surplus labor from agriculture. By contrast, competitive or undervalued exchange rates and labor market flexibility have contributed to growth-enhancing structural change. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, exchange rates, Labor, productivity, structural change, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1160&r=sea |
| By: | Armando Barrientos (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | Rapid population ageing and economic transformation in Asia raise the policy challenge of ensuring income security in old age. There is growing interest among policymakers in the potential role of noncontributory transfers as an instrument to address a variety of policy challenges, including old age poverty and vulnerability, rapid population ageing, the effects of migration on intergenerational family support structures, and the effects of informality on social protection systems. The main objective of this paper is to explore the potential role of social pensions and other noncontributory schemes in Asia, informed by insights from theory and international experience. The paper identifies alternative forms of providing income security in old age, including social pensions. It also examines the welfare effects of adopting alternative social pension designs, especially around two key policy nodes : the comparative advantages of social assistance and social pensions, and the integration of noncontributory transfers within advanced contributory pension schemes. |
| Keywords: | Social pension, Asia, population aging, income security, economic transformation, pension scheme |
| JEL: | H55 I38 J14 J32 O17 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:develo:23294&r=sea |
| By: | Qwanruedee (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Chotichanathawewong; Natapol Thongplew |
| Abstract: | In Thailand climate change has been integrated into the formulation of several national plans and policies. Even though Thailand is not obligated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it voluntarily takes numerous actions to mitigate emissions. Both the public and private sector have been actively involved in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with a series of measures and actions implemented in each sector. The development of renewable energy and the promotion of energy conservation and efficiency are the primary means to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in Thailand. With the establishment of the Energy Conservation Program in 1995, a viable movement for energy conservation and efficiency and renewable energy had begun. Over the years, progress in renewable energy and energy efficiency has been made. Recently, the 15-Year Renewable Energy Development Plan and the 20-Year Energy Conservation Plan comprised several innovative measures and incentive mechanisms to further advance the development of energy efficiency and renewable energy. Regardless of government policies and measures, the private sector has also taken part in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation by implementing a number of activities to reduce carbon sources (e.g., improved production processes and resource efficiency) and to create carbon sinks (e.g., reforestation and mangrove plantations). Thailand has made significant progresses toward green and low-carbon development; however, there is a need to further address the issue. The country has to focus on the implementation of no-regret policies to ensure the decoupling of economic growth, while starting to look further at implementing least-cost policies. There should be short-term policies to immediately address a rapid increase of greenhouse gas emissions and long-term policies to address fundamental changes towards a green and low-carbon society. |
| Keywords: | emissions, Thailand, Climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, energy conservation plan, low-carbon |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:energy:23295&r=sea |
| By: | Qwanruedee (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Chotichanathawewong; Natapol Thongplew |
| Abstract: | In Thailand climate change has been integrated into the formulation of several national plans and policies. Even though Thailand is not obligated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it voluntarily takes numerous actions to mitigate emissions. Both the public and private sector have been actively involved in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with a series of measures and actions implemented in each sector. The development of renewable energy and the promotion of energy conservation and efficiency are the primary means to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in Thailand. With the establishment of the Energy Conservation Program in 1995, a viable movement for energy conservation and efficiency and renewable energy had begun. Over the years, progress in renewable energy and energy efficiency has been made. Recently, the 15-Year Renewable Energy Development Plan and the 20-Year Energy Conservation Plan comprised several innovative measures and incentive mechanisms to further advance the development of energy efficiency and renewable energy. Regardless of government policies and measures, the private sector has also taken part in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation by implementing a number of activities to reduce carbon sources (e.g., improved production processes and resource efficiency) and to create carbon sinks (e.g., reforestation and mangrove plantations). Thailand has made significant progresses toward green and low-carbon development; however, there is a need to further address the issue. The country has to focus on the implementation of no-regret policies to ensure the decoupling of economic growth, while starting to look further at implementing least-cost policies. There should be short-term policies to immediately address a rapid increase of greenhouse gas emissions and long-term policies to address fundamental changes towards a green and low-carbon society. |
| Keywords: | emissions, Thailand, Climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, energy conservation plan, low-carbon |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:develo:23295&r=sea |
| By: | Nader Ale Ebrahim (UM - University of Malaya - Department of Engineering Design and Manufacture, Faculty of Engineering, University of Malaya); Shamsuddin Ahmed (UM - University of Malaya - Department of Engineering Design and Manufacture, Faculty of Engineering, University of Malaya); Zahari Taha (UMP - Faculty of Manufacturing Engineering and Management Technology, University Malaysia Pahang - Education) |
| Abstract: | Introduction: With the advent of the global economy and high-speed Internet, online collaboration is fast becoming the norm in education and industry [1]. Information technology (IT) creates many new inter-relationships among businesses, expands the scope of industries in which a company must compete to achieve the competitive advantage. Information systems and technology allow companies to coordinate their activities in distant geographic locations [2]. IT is providing the infrastructure necessary to support the development of new collaboration forms among industry and education. Virtual research and development (R&D) teams represent one such relational form, one that could revolutionize the workplace and provide organizations with unprecedented levels of flexibility and responsiveness [3-4]. |
| Keywords: | Virtual R&D teams, Collaboration, virtual teams, SMEs, Education |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00690028&r=sea |