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on South East Asia |
| By: | Bergsten, C. Fred (Asian Development Bank Institute); Noland, Marcus (Asian Development Bank Institute); Schott, Jeffrey J. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the prospect of realizing regional economic integration via the mechanism of a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). The FTAAP initiative represents a politically ambitious, high potential benefit option for achieving Asian regional integration. Among its desirable attributes, the FTAAP initiative could help revive and promote a successful conclusion of the Doha Round negotiations; constitute a “Plan B” hedge if Doha fails; short-circuit the further proliferation of bilateral and sub-regional preferential agreements that create substantial new discrimination and discord within the Asia-Pacific region; defuse the renewed risk of “drawing a line down the middle of the Pacific” as East Asian, and perhaps the Western Hemisphere, initiatives produce disintegration of the Asia-Pacific region rather than the integration of that broader region that the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum was created to foster; channel the People’s Republic of China-United States economic conflict into a more constructive and less confrontational context; and revitalize APEC, which is of enhanced importance because of the prospects for Asia-Pacific and especially the PRC-US fissures. An incremental approach to the FTAAP, explicitly embodying enforceable reciprocal commitments, offers the best hope delivering on the concept’s abundant benefits. |
| Keywords: | regional economic integration; asia-pacific; doha round negotiations |
| JEL: | F14 F23 F31 |
| Date: | 2011–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0336&r=sea |
| By: | Medalla, Erlinda M.; Balboa, Jenny D. |
| Abstract: | The East Asian region is a major global economic player, given its economic size and potential. As such, Regional Economic Integration in East Asia could be considered as an important building bloc toward integration of the Asia-Pacific region. East Asia has made significant progress in creating institutions for closer cooperation and integration. The next step would be how to strengthen support to these mechanisms such that they would effectively deliver the regional goals, as well as help the region overcome pressing issues. This short paper will discuss the state of economic integration in East Asia. It will also discuss the challenges in economic cooperation and integration in the region, as well as some policy strategies to overcome the challenge. |
| Keywords: | regional economic integration, East Asia, free trade agreements, forum for cooperation |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2011-23&r=sea |
| By: | Aoki, Masahiko (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Based on the variable rate of gross domestic product per capita growth and its sources, this paper first identifies five phases of economic development that are common to China, Japan, and Korea: M (Malthusian), G (government-led), K (à la Kuznets), H (human capital based) and PD (post demographic-transition). But there are also marked differences in the onset, duration, and institutional forms of these phases across these economies. In order to understand these differences, this paper explores the agrarian origins of institutions in Qing China and Tokugawa Japan (and briefly Chosŏn Korea) and their path-dependent transformations over those phases. In doing so, the paper employs game-theoretic reasoning and interpretations of divergent institutional evolution between China and Japan, which also clarifies the simplicity of prevailing arguments that identify East Asian developmental and institutional features with authoritarianism, collectivism, kinship-dominance, Confucianism and the like. Finally, the paper examines the relevance of the foregoing developmental discussions to the institutional agendas faced by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Japan in their respective emergent phase-transitions. In what way can the PRC avoid the “middle income trap”? What institutional shortcomings become evident from the Fukushima catastrophe and how can they be overcome in an aging Japan? |
| Keywords: | development phases; institutional evolution; agrarian origin; prc economy; middle income trap; post demographic transition; east asia; norm |
| JEL: | J11 N15 N35 N55 O15 O43 O53 P51 |
| Date: | 2012–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0340&r=sea |
| By: | Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Lavado, Rouselle F.; Reyes, Celia M.; Asis, Ronina D.; Datu, Maria Blesila G. |
| Abstract: | The Philippines is one of the biggest pharmaceutical markets in the ASEAN region, next only to Indonesia and Thailand. It is a lifeline to thousands of Filipino workers and a significant contributor in terms of value of output. This industry is one of the fastest growing industries in the country. Meanwhile, its output, drugs and medicines, account for 46 percent of the total medical out-of-pocket expenses of Philippine households. For poorer people, this percentage goes up to 55 percent. Making essential drugs and medicines more affordable especially to the poor and underserved is one of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). It is therefore essential to examine the profile of the pharmaceutical industry in the country to better understand the supply chain of drugs and medicines for policy formulation purposes. Using administrative data from agencies that have regulative powers over the industry, a profile of the Philippine pharmaceutical industry was developed. As of December 2009, the Food and Drug Administration’s records show that there are 284 drug manufacturers, 438 drug traders, 634 drug importers, 4,719 drug distributors of which 3,956 are wholesalers, and 32,538 retail outlets. Manufacturing is dominated by multinational brand originator giants and numerous local generics/branded generics producers. Meanwhile, trading is done by few large companies and thousands of small retail outlets. The industry players are diverse and formulating policies therefore must take into consideration how each player may be affected by policy issuances. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, Geographic Information System (GIS), macroeconomic shock, Philippine pharmaceutical sector, drugs and medicines |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2011-11&r=sea |
| By: | Michael McAleer (Erasmus University Rotterdam,Tinbergen Institute,Kyoto University,Complutense University of Madrid); David Allen (School of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Edith Cowan University); Ron Amram (School of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Edith Cowan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether there is evidence of spillovers of volatility from the Chinese stock market to its neighbours and trading partners, including Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and USA. China’s increasing integration into the global market may have important consequences for investors in related markets. In order to capture these potential effects, we explore these issues using an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) return equation. A univariate GARCH model is then adopted to test for the persistence of volatility in stock market returns, as represented by stock market indices. Finally, univariate GARCH, multivariate VARMA-GARCH, and multivariate VARMA-AGARCH models are used to test for constant conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects across these markets. Each model is used to calculate the conditional volatility between both the Shenzhen and Shanghai Chinese markets and several other markets around the Pacific Basin Area, including Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore, during four distinct periods, beginning 27 August 1991 and ending 17 November 2010. The empirical results show some evidence of volatility spillovers across these markets in the pre-GFC periods, but there is little evidence of spillover effects from China to related markets during the GFC. This is presumably because the GFC was initially a US phenomenon, before spreading to developed markets around the globe, so that it was not a Chinese phenomenon. |
| Keywords: | Volatility spillovers, VARMA-GARCH, VARMA-AGARCH, Chinese stock market. |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:805&r=sea |
| By: | Yue, Chia Siow |
| Abstract: | <p>Singapore has one of the most open economies in Asia in terms of trade, foreign direct investment inflows, and foreign labor inflows. By 2010, citizens formed only 63.6% of the population and foreigners (not including permanent residents) form 34.7% of the labor force. This high foreign labor ratio reflects buoyant labor demand, limited domestic labor supply with declining total fertility rate, and the lack of xenophobia and labor protectionism. Foreign labor is needed to grow the population, mitigate population aging, grow the GDP and per capita GDP, cover shortages in labor supply and skills, act as a cyclical buffer, and contain wage costs to ensure international competitiveness. However, the heavy dependence on foreign labor has also delayed economic restructuring, adversely affected productivity performance, and engendered a FDW-dependency syndrome among households.</p><p>The foreign labor policy is dual track, with unrestricted inflow of foreign talents and managed inflow of low-skilled labor through the use of work permits, worker levies, dependency ceilings, and educational and skills criteria. Going forward, Singapore has to limit its dependence on foreign labor to accelerate productivity growth and as it is constrained by physical space and citizen concerns over crowding out of jobs, public and recreational spaces, and public services. Greater bilateral and ASEAN cooperation is needed to mitigate the cross-border conflicts and tensions arising from the cross-border movement of labor.</p> |
| Keywords: | brain gain, foreign labor, foreign labor policy, domestic maids |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2011-24&r=sea |
| By: | Brusentsev, Vera; Newhouse, David; Vroman, Wayne |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes new evidence from two large household surveys on the compliance of firms with severance pay regulations in Indonesia, and the extent to which changes in severance pay regulations could affect employment rigidity. Compliance appears to be low, as only one-third of workers entitled to severance pay report receiving it, and on average workers only collect 40 percent of the payment due to them. Eligible female and low-wage workers are least likely to report receiving payments. Widespread non-compliance is consistent with trends in employment rigidity, which remained essentially unchanged following the large increases in severance mandated by the 2003 law. These results suggest that workers may benefit from a compromise that relaxes severance pay regulations while improving enforcement of severance pay statutes, and possibly establishing a system of unemployment benefits. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Wages, Compensation&Benefits,Social Protections&Assistance,Labor Policies,Labor Management and Relations |
| Date: | 2012–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5933&r=sea |
| By: | Bachtiar, Palmira Permata |
| Abstract: | <p>This study looks at emigration governance in the context of decentralized Indonesia. It examines various local initiatives that have evolved following the onset of decentralization in Indonesia a decade ago. These initiatives materialized in the form of local regulations (perda). First, we perform a literature review which particularly addresses the issue of perda related to overseas employment. Prior to the mapping analysis, a typology of four possible types of classification is constructed. Out of the 127 collected perda, 81% fall in type-1 perda (perda on general employment which are extractive); 14.2% in type-2 perda (perda on general kabupaten (district) revenue which are extractive); 2.4% in type-3 perda (perda on placement procedure which are nonextractive); and 2.4% in type-4 perda (perda on migrant worker protection which are nonextractive). We find that migrant-source kabupaten issue both higher numbers and varieties of perda related to overseas employment with type-1 and type-2 perda being the majority, while only three kabupaten (3.7% of 82 kabupaten) issue type-4 perda. Interestingly, our typology is not necessarily mutually exclusive, as kabupaten that pass protection perda do pass extractive perda as well.</p><p>Second, we conduct fieldwork in four migrant-source kabupaten which have received technical assistance from donor agencies to formulate protection perda. In order to understand why Kabupaten Blitar and Lombok Barat were able to pass protection perda, while Kabupaten Ponorogo and Lombok Tengah could not, we look at the internal factors: stakeholders and the relationships between them; and the external factors which are beyond the control of the stakeholders. Our field research shows that the policy process in each kabupaten is unique and cannot be explained in a standard model. The duration of the policy process, substance of the perda, position of the advocating nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), intervention of the private recruitment agencies (PPTKIS), and the timing of election are the factors the outcomes of which are different in each kabupaten. Other factors such as the trust and commitment of the local government and parliament, strong capacity of NGOs, and strong support of donors also positively influence the success of the process.</p> |
| Keywords: | migrant workers, governance, decentralization, local government, local regulation |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2011-25&r=sea |
| By: | Chalamwong, Yongyuth |
| Abstract: | <p>The study on "Managing International Labor Migration in ASEAN: Thailand" aimed to study policies and institution arrangement for managing international migration as part of regional cooperation initiatives and bilateral agreements. The study emphasized on finding out why the current management of sending workers and protecting workers has not been effective. The data used for the analysis came from two main majority sources; 1) the quantitative data, including primary data on possible solutions, strategies, the secondary sources from Socio-Economic Survey (SES) and information where necessary to explain the socioeconomic impact of migrant worker families; and 2) the qualitative study collected from interview of key informants, focus group discussion with families of migrant workers, governments, brokers, and etc. As data allow, cost benefit analysis for out-migration as well as in-migration from government intervention programs was applied.</p><p>The theory of push and pull factors were used for describing reasons that forced migrant workers to work overseas. As of the study, there was the evidence that pointed out that poverty and indebtedness were push factor for both emigration and immigration while higher income in the destination countries was the pull factor. The study further found that both of emigration and immigration were beneficial in various aspects including increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) in both country of origin and the destination country. Remittance was an important source of the country development budget, increase in the level of national saving, and improve income distribution.</p><p>However, it was due to the fact that most migrant workers were from low educational background, thus most of them become victims of exploitation and human trafficking from the agencies and employers in particular undocumented workers. Even though, Thai government has many laws and regulations regarding prevention and protection of migrant workers such as Labour Law and Labour Protection Act; and the Memorandum of Understandings (MOUs) in regional and bilateral level, these have not been effective due to the weakness in law enforcement of the authorities.</p> |
| Keywords: | immigration, international migration, emigration, undocumented workers, migrant worker |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2011-27&r=sea |
| By: | Paitoonpong, Srawooth |
| Abstract: | <p>The study on "Managing International Labor Migration in ASEAN: Thailand" aimed to study policies and institution arrangement for managing international migration as part of regional cooperation initiatives and bilateral agreements. The study emphasized on finding out why the current management of sending workers and protecting workers has not been effective. The data used for the analysis came from two main majority sources; 1) the quantitative data, including primary data on possible solutions, strategies, the secondary sources from Socio-Economic Survey (SES) and information where necessary to explain the socioeconomic impact of migrant worker families; and 2) the qualitative study collected from interview of key informants, focus group discussion with families of migrant workers, governments, brokers, and etc. As data allow, cost benefit analysis for out-migration as well as in-migration from government intervention programs was applied.</p><p>The theory of push and pull factors were used for describing reasons that forced migrant workers to work overseas. As of the study, there was the evidence that pointed out that poverty and indebtedness were push factor for both emigration and immigration while higher income in the destination countries was the pull factor. The study further found that both of emigration and immigration were beneficial in various aspects including increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) in both country of origin and the destination country. Remittance was an important source of the country development budget, increase in the level of national saving, and improve income distribution.</p><p>However, it was due to the fact that most migrant workers were from low educational background, thus most of them become victims of exploitation and human trafficking from the agencies and employers in particular undocumented workers. Even though, Thai government has many laws and regulations regarding prevention and protection of migrant workers such as Labour Law and Labour Protection Act; and the Memorandum of Understandings (MOUs) in regional and bilateral level, these have not been effective due to the weakness in law enforcement of the authorities.</p> |
| Keywords: | immigration, international migration, emigration, undocumented workers, migrant worker |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2011-28&r=sea |
| By: | Lupo Pasini, Federico (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Capital controls and exchange restrictions are used to restrict international capital flows during economic crises. This paper looks at the legal implications of these restrictions and explores the current international regulatory framework applicable to international capital movements and current payments. It shows how international capital flows suffer from the lack of a comprehensive and coherent regulatory framework that would harmonize the patchwork of multilateral, regional, and bilateral treaties that currently regulate this issue. |
| Keywords: | capital controls; exchange restrictions; international capital flows; economic crises |
| JEL: | F13 F31 F32 F53 |
| Date: | 2012–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0338&r=sea |
| By: | J. Vernon Henderson; Yong Suk Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how different organizational structures between funding and implementing agencies affect the quality of aid delivered and social agendas pursued across neighboring villages in a set disaster context. We model the implied objective functions and trade-offs concerning aid quality, aid quantity, and social agendas of different types of agencies. We analyze three waves of survey data on fishermen and fishing villages in Aceh, Indonesia from 2005-2009, following the tsunami. Different organizational structures result in significantly different qualities of hard aid, differential willingness to share aid delivery with other NGOs in a village, and differential promotion of public good objectives and maintenance of village religious and occupational traditions. This is the first time these aspects have been modeled and quantified in the literature. Some well known international NGOs delivered housing with relatively low rates of reported faults such as leaky roofs and cracked walls; others had relatively high rates. For boats, some had very high rates of boat “failure”, boats that sank upon launch, were not seaworthy, or fell apart within a month or two. We also document how a social agenda of particular agencies to promote greater equality can be thwarted and distorted by village leaders, potentially increasing inequality. |
| JEL: | F35 H4 H5 L2 L3 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17707&r=sea |
| By: | Hing, Vutha; Lun, Pide; Phann, Dalis |
| Abstract: | <p>The study examines the characteristics, root causes, and challenges of irregular migration from Cambodia and then discusses the regulatory approaches and policy options to manage it. It employed mixed approaches, including a survey of 507 households in six high-migration villages, focus group discussions with returned and intending migrant workers, and in-depth interviews with government officers, migration experts, and local community chiefs. The study found that irregular migration has been the most popular form among Cambodian workers seeking jobs overseas. The causes of irregular migration are many, ranging from chronic poverty, lack of employment, and economic hardship in community of origin to restrictive immigration policies in labor-receiving countries and lengthy, complex, and expensive legal recruitment. The predominant factor is inability to afford the cost of legal recruitment. Cambodian migrant workers face abusive and exploitative situations, including sexual and physical harassment, debt bondage, and threats of denunciation to the authorities, without access to legal protection. Some are also victims of human trafficking.</p><p>The findings from the Cambodian case study on irregular migration align with international literature suggesting a combination of at least three sets of measures: addressing the causes, strengthening protection, and enhancing international cooperation. The first two sets have a lot to do with national sovereignty and development priorities involving community development, improving the regulatory framework to make legal migration more transparent and more widely accessible, and enhancing support services of information, consultation, and legal protection. The third set of measures involves bilateral, regional, and international cooperation. Cooperation between Cambodia and labor-receiving countries on regularization or making legal migration more accessible can be part of an effective response to irregular migration. In the long run, irregular migration can be solved through a more integrated labor market in the GMS, supported by subregional regulations and institutions as well as through an ASEAN Economic Community that sets a legal framework for a free flow of labor.</p> |
| Keywords: | irregular migration, abuse and exploitation, sending and receiving countries, recruitment agency, malpractice, human trafficking, international cooperation |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2011-26&r=sea |
| By: | Massimiliano Landi (School of Economics, Singapore Management Unversity) |
| Abstract: | I provide a simple example of a single peaked utility function that generates a Giffen demand. The utility function is smooth, non piecewise defined, strictly concave but not globally increasing. A full characterization of the parameter conditions under which the Giffen demand arises is provided. In addition the properties of the demand function are studied: I find that the inferior commodity with a Giffen demand must be cheaper relatively to a substitue and that Giffen demand arises at relatively low levels of income. However it is not required that the share of income spent on that commodity be large. |
| Keywords: | Giffen behavior; Utility function; Single peakedness; Expenditure share. |
| JEL: | D11 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:02-2012&r=sea |
| By: | Massimiliano Landi (School of Economics, Singapore Management Unversity); Riccardo Pelizzo |
| Abstract: | We apply the Optimal Classification method to a newly created dataset to provide a spatial map of the Italian Second Republic (1996-2008). We find a bi-dimensional political space in the XIII Legislature and virtually a one dimensional political space in the XIV and XV Legislatures. In addition, the main dimension is explained along the dimension government opposition rather than on the traditional left and right dimension. During the Second Republic, Italy experienced changes in electoral system and in the format of the parties. We use our data to discuss the implications of either change on the dimensionality space. We find that the format of the party system was a more important determinant of the dimensionality of the political space than changes in the electoral system. |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:01-2012&r=sea |