|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Zhang, Bin (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The author calculates the return on the major Asian currency denominated long-term government bonds in terms of a basket of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) imports of goods and services, namely the real return on those assets from the PRC’s perspective. He shows that it is desirable for the PRC to substitute Asian currency denominated government bonds for US Treasury bills to maintain the purchasing power of its foreign exchange reserves. |
| Keywords: | foreign exchange reserves; currency basket; asian currencies |
| JEL: | F21 F31 G11 |
| Date: | 2011–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0306&r=sea |
| By: | Shiro Armstrong (EABER) |
| Abstract: | EABER Working Paper |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:wpaper:2486&r=sea |
| By: | S. Mahendra Dev (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | Climate change is a major challenge for agriculture, food security and rural livelihoods for billions of people including the poor in the Asia-Pacific region. Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to climate change due to its high dependence on climate and weather and because people involved in agriculture tend to be poorer compared with urban residents. More than 60 per cent of the population is directly or indirectly relying on agriculture as a source of livelihood in this region. Agriculture is part of the problem and part of the solution. Asian agriculture sector is already facing many problems relating to sustainability. To those already daunting challenges, climate change adds further pressure on agriculture adversely affecting the poor. The climate change is already making adversely impact on the lives of the population particularly the poor. It is already evident in a number of ways. Consistent warming trends and more frequent and intense extreme weather events such as droughts, cyclones, floods, and hailstorms have been observed across Asia and the Pacific in recent decades. The objective of this paper is to identify climate change related threats and vulnerabilities associated with agriculture as a sector and agriculture as people's livelihoods (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity). The paper analyses the connections between the nature of human action as drivers of threats as well as opportunities for sustainable agriculture and better human development outcomes. Broadly, it examines the impact of climate change on rural livelihoods, agriculture, food security. It discusses the options for adaptation and mitigation and requirements for implementation at local, national and international level of these measures. |
| Keywords: | climate change, adaptation, mitigation, Asia-Pacific region, agriculture |
| JEL: | Q10 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2011-014&r=sea |
| By: | Giannozzi, Sara; Khan, Asmeen |
| Abstract: | Several East Asian countries, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, are considering an expansion of their social safety net programs. In many cases, existing delivery mechanisms for social assistance in the region tend to be basic, in line with the small size of programs. In a context of coverage expansion and proliferation of new programs, the risk of creating increasingly complex systems characterized by cross-incentives is high. Lack of coordination, ambiguous criteria for identifying and selecting beneficiaries, low administrative capacity, lack of transparency and limited beneficiary participation pose risks for program effectiveness and can decrease accountability. Good governance can improve program outcomes through effective program coordination, stronger accountability arrangements, provider incentives and greater transparency and participation. This paper proposes an analytical framework to systematically identify governance risks and constraints which, if removed, could improve the outcomes of modern social assistance programs. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Safety Nets and Transfers,National Governance,Governance Indicators,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis |
| Date: | 2011–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:63930&r=sea |
| By: | Yann Duval (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)) |
| Abstract: | The coverage of trade facilitation is found to have become very extensive, with the details of provisions in some agreements matching that in the draft WTO agreement on trade facilitation. Trade facilitation provisions and principles are increasingly seen to apply not only to Customs procedures but more generally, as reflected in the number of recent agreements featuring separate Trade Facilitation and/or Transparency chapters (or equivalent). Other trade facilitation measures that seem to be increasingly common include those on Automation/Use of ICT, Risk Management, Advance Ruling and Single Window. The ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) and its detailed commitment to implement a Trade Facilitation Work Programme stands out as it provides a concrete and specific way forward to ensure that progress is made towards actual implementation of the many trade facilitation measures mentioned in it. |
| Keywords: | trade facilitation, regional trade agreements, RTA, bilateral, free trade agreements, FTA, free trade areas, customs, WTO, Asia, Pacific, paperless, single window, ICT |
| JEL: | F1 F13 |
| Date: | 2011–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:wpaper:swp211&r=sea |
| By: | Boettke, Peter |
| Abstract: | James Scott has written a detailed ethnography on the lives of the peoples of upland Southeast Asia who choose to escape oppressive government by living at the edge of their civilization. To the political economist the fascinating story told by Scott provides useful narratives in need of analytical exposition. There remains in this work a “plea for mechanism”; the mechanisms that enable social cooperation to emerge among individuals living outside the realm of state control. Social cooperation outside the formal rules of governance, nevertheless require “rules” of social intercourse, and techniques of “enforcement” to ensure the disciplining of opportunistic behavior. |
| Keywords: | economic development; self-regulation; political economy; peasant economy |
| JEL: | O17 P48 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33067&r=sea |
| By: | Gernot Pehnelt (GlobEcon); Christoph Vietze (Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Germany) |
| Abstract: | On 05 December 2010, the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) came into force in the EU. Member States are still working to fully transpose the Directive into national law and establish a framework for achieving their legally binding greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. However, governments got off to a slow start as debate continues on the validity of the directives foundations including the default values used to measure the sustainability of biofuels. Only sustainable biofuels can be counted towards Member State targets. This, as a matter of principle, makes sense with respect to the very aim of renewable energy policies. On the other hand, the vague and distortive formulation and values regarding what is to be classified as "sustainable" have negatively impacted the perception of the underlying scientific base and methodologies as well as the reliability in the European biofuels sector. This uncertainty and the ongoing controversial debates are affecting investment and progress in the biofuel sector not just in Europe but all over the world. Producers of soybeans in the US, sugarcane in Brazil and palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia as well as European importers and end-users of these products have all been sharply critical of the default values, citing significant variations in calculations that undermine the credibility of the values contained in the Directive. Given the remarkable difference between the calculation of carbon reduction performance of palm oil based biofuel by the EU and a range of scientific studies which we documented in an earlier paper (Pehnelt and Vietze 2009), we are re-calculating GHG emissions saving potentials for palm oil biodiesel in order to further assess the carbon footprint of palm oil to overcome the lack of transparency in existing publications on the issue and EU regulations governing the biofuel feed-stocks. The aim of this paper is to calculate realistic and transparent scenario based CO2-emission values for the GHG emission savings of palm oil fuel compared with fossil fuel. Using the calculation scheme proposed by the Renewable Energy Directive (RED), we derive a more realistic overall default value for palm oil diesel by using current input and output data of biofuel production (e.g. in South-East Asia) and documenting every single step in detail. We calculate different scenarios in which reliable data on the production conditions (and the regarding emission values during the production chain) of palm oil diesel are used. Our conservative calculations based on the Joint Research Centre's (JEC 2011) background data and current publications on palm oil production result in GHG emissions saving potentials of palm oil based biodiesel fairly above the 35% threshold. We cannot reproduce the EU's GHG saving values for palm oil. Rather, our results confirm the higher values obtained by other studies mentioned in our last paper (Pehnelt and Vietze 2009) and elsewhere in this study. Our results indicate default values for the GHG emission savings potential of palm oil biodiesel not only way beyond the 19 percent default value published in RED but also beyond the 35 percent threshold. Our findings conclude that the more accurate default value for palm oil feedstock for electricity generation to be 52%, and for transportation biodiesel between 38.5% and 41%, depending on the fossil fuel comparator. Our results confirm the findings by other studies and challenge the official default values published in RED. As indicated by lawsuits filed by environmental NGOs against the Commission for greater transparency related to the assessment of biofuels, the process has been severely lacking in full disclosure of metrics used to achieve the values contained in the Renewable Energy Directive. As a result, the reliability of the Directive to support the EU's low-carbon ambitions is being undermined, exposing the EU and Commission to charges of trade discrimination and limiting the ability of Member States to achieve their legally binding GHG emission reductions. This analysis demonstrates that a full review of the values contained in the Directive should be undertaken and the values revised to ensure their accuracy, and raises questions as to the method that the values were originally established. Were outside parties consulted, including the industries directly affected by the assessments in the Directive? Were these values peer reviewed? In light of grievances expressed by producers throughout the world, including US soybean growers, Brazilian sugarcane farmers, and Malaysian and Indonesian palm growers, ensuring the Directive does not discriminate against imports is critical to the long-term efforts in the EU to reduce GHG emissions. |
| Keywords: | Biofuel, Palm Oil, Biodiesel, RED, Renewable Energy Directive, Default Values, GHG-emissions |
| JEL: | F14 F18 O13 Q01 Q15 Q27 Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2011–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2011-037&r=sea |
| By: | Shu-Ping Shi (Research School of Economics, The Australian National University); Peter C.B. Phillips (Yale University, University of Auckland, University of Southampton & Singapore Management University); Jun Yu (School of Economics, Singapore Management Unversity) |
| Abstract: | Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specifi cation used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focussing on the sup ADF test of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011), which implements a right-tailed ADF test repeatedly on a sequence of forward sample recursions. We analyze and compare the limit theory of the sup ADF test under different hypotheses and model speci cations. The size and power properties of the test under various scenarios are examined in simulations and some recommendations for empirical practice are given. An empirical application to Nasdaq data reveals the practical importance of model speci cation on test outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Unit root test; Mildly explosive process; Recursive regression; Size and power |
| JEL: | C15 C22 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:08-2011&r=sea |
| By: | Stephenson, Sherry (Asian Development Bank Institute); Roberts, Maryse (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Since the early 1990s, regional trade agreements (RTAs) covering trade in services have proliferated, with 95 RTAs on services notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO) under Article V of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), as of June 2011. This paper discusses how RTAs support or debilitate the GATS in its governance function as the keeper of rules and liberalization commitments on services trade for WTO members. It addresses this question and its implications for governance by focusing on four different issues: architecture; compliance; ability to promote reforms; and actual impact of RTAs in fostering services trade. |
| Keywords: | regional trade agreements; gats; political economy; trade in services; wto; multilateralizing regionalism |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F59 |
| Date: | 2011–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0307&r=sea |
| By: | Hwee Kwan Chow (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Paul D. McNelis (SDepartment of Finance, Graduate School of Business Administration, Fordham University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a DSGE-VAR model to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore and asks if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate with a Taylor rule inflation-targeting mechanism that uses the short term interest rate instead of the exchange rate as the benchmark monetary policy instrument. Our simulation results show that the use of a more flexible exchange rate system will reduce volatility in inflation and investment but consumption volatility will increase. Overall, there are neither signi ficant welfare gains or losses in the regime shift. Given the highly open and trade dependent nature of the Singapore economy where the policy preference is for exchange rate stability, there is no impetus to abandon the present monetary regime. |
| JEL: | E52 E62 F41 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:29-2010&r=sea |
| By: | Hian Teck Hoon (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | This paper is in three parts. The first part discusses the workings of a wage subsidy scheme in boosting employment and earnings of workers. The second part reviews the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of wage subsidy schemes in countries that have implemented them both as countercyclical policies as well as structural programs to boost long-term earnings and employment of low wage workers. The third part looks at Singapore as a case study of how wage subsidies have been used in a program for generating economic inclusion both in the context of growth as well as in the context of business fluctuations. |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:02-2011&r=sea |
| By: | Yann Duval; Chorthip Utoktham (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents findings from an initial analysis of new non-tariff trade cost estimates and their determinants, based on a bilateral database of comprehensive trade cost maintained by ESCAP. Results of the non-tariff policy-related trade costs modeling exercise strongly suggest that improving port efficiency (liner shipping connectivity) and access to information and communication technology facilities is essential to reducing trade costs. |
| Keywords: | trade facilitation, trade costs, measures, policy, tariff, non-tariff, port efficiency, liner shipping connectivity, logistics, information and communication technology, information technology, public-private partnership, business environment, ASEAN, China, India, Japan, Korea |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:wpaper:swp111&r=sea |
| By: | Clifton, Judith; Díaz-Fuentes, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Recognising the declining weight of its members in the world economy, the OECD, formerly known as a ‘club of rich, industrialised nations’, is undergoing unprecedented organisational reform, including a more inclusive membership logic, engagement with new global players, and outreach to developing countries, all with a view to guaranteeing its continued relevance as a central actor in the task of global policy provision. Using the concepts of global public goods, clubs and models of multilateralism, this article critically evaluates the successes and limits of the OECD’s reform, arguing that it is adopting a restrictive approach to expansion – globalisation ‘ à la carte’. Meaningful reform towards greater inclusion is apparent in the way research on nonmembers has been mainstreamed, and in its increased work both with emerging powers and with developing countries. Limits to reform are found in institutional rigidities including its overrepresentation of Europe and underrepresentation of Asia and other continents, reflected through staff profiles and membership. These biases may in turn reduce its attractiveness as a global forum to new players, particularly China. |
| Keywords: | OECD; Globalisation; Club Goods; Global public Goods; Models of Multilateralism. Developing Countries. BRIC |
| JEL: | D73 D71 H87 F02 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33053&r=sea |
| By: | Tomoki Fujii (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | We propose a method to decompose the logarithmic change of the Divisia price index into the pure price effect, the prefernce effect and the substitution effect. Our empirical results in the Philippines shows the effects of preference change on the Divisia price index are heterogeneous but positive across all regions and income deciles. However, they are dominated by the pure price effect. |
| Keywords: | Divisia price index, preference change, decomposition, Philippines |
| JEL: | E31 I32 O10 |
| Date: | 2011–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:06-2011&r=sea |
| By: | Tore Selland Kleppe (Department of Mathematics,University of Bergen); Jun Yu (School of Economics, Singapore Management Unversity); Hans J. skaug (Department of Mathematics,University of Bergen) |
| Abstract: | In this paper a method is developed and implemented to provide the simulated maximum likelihood estimation of latent diffusions based on discrete data. The method is applicable to diffusions that either have latent elements in the state vector or are only observed at discrete time with a noise. Latent diffusions are very important in practical applications in nancial economics. The proposed approach synthesizes the closed form method of Aït-Sahalia (2008) and the ecient importance sampler of Richard and Zhang (2007). It does not require any inll observations to be introduced and hence is computationally tractable. The Monte Carlo study shows that the method works well in finite sample. The empirical applications illustrate usefulness of the method and find no evidence of infinite variance in the importance sampler. |
| Keywords: | Closed-form approximation; Diusion Model; Ecient importance sampler |
| JEL: | C11 C15 G12 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:10-2011&r=sea |
| By: | Peter C.B. Phillips (Yale University, University of Auckland, University of Southampton & Singapore Management University); Shu-Ping Shi (Research School of Economics, The Australian National University); Jun Yu (School of Economics, Singapore Management Unversity) |
| Abstract: | Identifying explosive bubbles that are characterized by periodically collapsing behavior over time has been a major concern in the literature and is of great importance for practitioners. The complexity of the nonlinear structure in multiple bubble phenomena diminishes the discriminatory power of existing tests, as evidenced in early simulations conducted by Evans (1991). Multiple collapsing bubble episodes within the same sample period make bubble diagnosis particularly di¢ cult and complicate attempts at econometric dating. The present paper systematically investigates these issues and develops new procedures for practical implementation and surveillance strategies by central banks. We show how the testing procedure and dating algorithm of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011, PWY) is affected by multiple bubbles and may fail to be consistent. To assist performance in such contexts, the present paper proposes a generalized version of the sup ADF test of PWY that addresses the difficulty. The asymptotic distribution of the generalized test is provided and the test is shown to signfi cantly improve discriminatory power in simulations. The paper advances a new date-stamping strategy for the origination and termination of multiple bubbles that is based on this generalized test and consistency of the date-stamping algorithm is established. The new strategy leads to distinct power gains over the date-stamping strategy of PWY when multiple bubbles occur. Empirical applications are conducted with both tests along with their respective date-stamping technology to S&P 500 stock market data from January 1871 to December 2010. The new approach identi es many key historical episodes of exuberance and collapse over this period, whereas the strategy of PWY locates only two such episodes in the same sample range. |
| Keywords: | Date-stamping strategy, Generalized sup ADF test, Multiple bubbles, Rational bubble, Periodically collapsing bubbles, Sup ADF test |
| JEL: | C15 C22 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:09-2011&r=sea |
| By: | Tomoki Fujii (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | The remittances have emerged as one of the most important sources of international flows. In the Philipines, the amount of remittance receipts has more than doubled over a decade since early 1900s. As a result, the way remittances are used has become extremely important for economic development. Unlike the previous studies, we allow for the potential heterogeneity in the impact of remittances across various relationships to the head of household and take into account the potential negative effects of being guarded by someone other than the parents We find that the impact of remittances on schooling is generally positive and the negative impact is outweighed by the positive impact of remittance flows. |
| Date: | 2011–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:05-2011&r=sea |
| By: | Pao-Li Chang (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Chia-Hui Lu (Department of Economics and Finance, City University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | This paper incorporates risk into the FDI decisions of rms. The risk of FDI failure increases with the gap between the South's technology frontier and the technology complexity of a firm's product. This leads to a double-crossing sorting pattern of FDI firms of intermediate technology levels are more likely than others to undertake FDI. It is with the attempt to relax the upper bound of the technology content of FDI, we argue, that many FDI policies are created. The theory's predictions are consistent with the empirical pattern of FDI in China by US and Taiwanese manufacturing rms. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment,Technology,Risk,spillover,Dynamic |
| JEL: | F21 F23 O24 O33 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:07-2011&r=sea |
| By: | Pao-Li Chang (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Myoung-Jae Lee (Department of Economics, Korea University) |
| Abstract: | This paper reexamines the GATT/WTO membership effect on bilateral trade flows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosenbaum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Together, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspecification biases, allows general forms of heterogeneous treatment effects, and addresses potential hidden selection biases. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue. Our results suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting e®ects, robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative indicators for GATT/WTO involvement, different matching methodologies, non-random incidence of positive trade flows, and inclusion of multilateral resistance terms. |
| Keywords: | Trade flow,Treatment effect,Matching,Permutation test,Signed-rank test,Sensitivity analysis |
| JEL: | F13 F14 C14 C21 C23 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:31-2010&r=sea |
| By: | Gea Myoung Lee (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | TWe investigate how a domestic subsidy is treated in an international agreement, when a government, having incentive to use its subsidy as a means of import protection, can disguise its protective use of subsidy as a legitimate intervention with which to address a market imperfection in the import-competing sector. We show that any optimal agreement permits the use of a positive domestic subsidy, but it restricts the home government’s freedom to select domestic subsidy in order to increase the market-access level for foreign exporters. Our finding implies that proper restrictions on domestic subsidies are somewhere between GATT and WTO rules. |
| Keywords: | Treatment of domestic subsidy, International agreement, GATT/WTO rules |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:01-2011&r=sea |
| By: | Pao-Li Chang (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Fali Huang (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a theory on the endogenous choice of a country's education policy and the two-way causal relationship between trade and education systems. The setting of a country's education system determines its talent distribution and comparative advantage in trade; the possibility of trade by raising the returns to the sector of comparative advantage in turn induces countries to further differentiate their education systems and reinforces the initial pattern of comparative advantage. Speci cally, the Nash equilibrium choice of education systems by two countries interacting strategically are necessarily more divergent than their autarky choices,although the difference is still less than what is socially optimal for the world. We provide some preliminary empirical evidence on the relationship between education, talent distribution, and trade. |
| Keywords: | Education System, Talent Distribution, Comparative Advantage, Trade Pattern |
| JEL: | F16 I20 J24 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:33-2010&r=sea |
| By: | Pao-Li Chang (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Chia-Hui Lu (Department of Economics and Finance, City University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | This paper builds a dynamic model to examine the two-way interaction between FDI and the South's technology frontier. Inferior technology capacity in the South generates risk of production failure, which discourages inward FDI with high technology content. Only if the risk is not prohibitive does the first wave of FDI take place, which enables the South to learn from producing for multinationals and push forward its technology frontier. Consequently, the risk constraints are relaxed, which induces subsequent FDI with ever higher technology content. This reinforcing process implies an FDI agglomeration phenomenon and a magnified long-run policy impact. |
| JEL: | F21 F23 O24 O33 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:30-2010&r=sea |
| By: | Pao-Li Chang (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | This article clari es the roles played by trade policy, in contrast with iceberg transport cost, in the popular setting of Melitz (2003), and characterizes the optimal reciprocal trade policy in such a setting. I show that import tariffs and iceberg transport cost are not equivalent in the strength of their trade- restricting effects and their welfare implications. With all the conflicting effectsof import tariffs on welfare considered, the optimal degree of reciprocity in multilateral tariff reduction turns out to be free trade. |
| Keywords: | Firm Heterogeneity,Reciprocal Trade Policy |
| JEL: | F12 F13 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:32-2010&r=sea |