nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2011‒05‒30
four papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Exchange Rates in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities from Latin America and East Asia By Sebastian Edwards
  2. Re-examination of supply response to changes in food commodity prices in Asian countries By Katsushi Imai; Raghav Gaiha; Ganesh Thapa; Abdilahi Ali
  3. Forecasting Corporate Distress in the Asian and Pacific Region By Russ Moro; Wolfgang Härdle; Saeideh Aliakbari; Linda Hoffmann
  4. Knowledge in the air and cooperation between firms: Traditions of secrecy and the reluctant emergence of specialization in the ceramic manufacturing district of Lampang, Thailand By Weeranan Kamnungwut; Frederick Guy

  1. By: Sebastian Edwards
    Abstract: In this paper I discuss some of the most important lessons on exchange rate policies in emerging markets during the last 35 years. The analysis is undertaken from the perspective of both the Latin American and East Asian nations. Some of the topics addressed include: the relationship between exchange rate regimes and growth, the costs of currency crises, the merits of “dollarization,” the relation between exchange rates and macroeconomic stability, monetary independence under alternative exchange rate arrangements, and the effects of the recent global “currency wars” on exchange rates in commodity exporters.
    JEL: F0 F31 F32 F41
    Date: 2011–05
  2. By: Katsushi Imai; Raghav Gaiha; Ganesh Thapa; Abdilahi Ali
    Date: 2011
  3. By: Russ Moro; Wolfgang Härdle; Saeideh Aliakbari; Linda Hoffmann
    Abstract: This study analyses credit default risk for firms in the Asian and Pacific region by applying two methodologies: a Support Vector Machine (SVM) and a logistic regression (Logit). Among different financial ratios suggested as predictors of default, leverage ratios and the company size display a higher discriminating power compared to others. An analysis of the dependencies between PD and financial ratios is provided along with a comparison with Europe (Germany). With respect to forecasting accuracy the SVM has a lower model risk than the Logit on average and displays a more robust performance. This result holds true across different years.
    Keywords: Credit risk, Bankruptcy, Asian companies, SVM
    JEL: C14 G33 C45
    Date: 2011–05
  4. By: Weeranan Kamnungwut; Frederick Guy
    Abstract: In the study of industrial clusters, the relative importance, and possible interrelationship, of inter-firm cooperation in production and broad knowledge transfers (both unintentional spillovers and intentional sharing) have long been disputed. To shed light on this we study ceramic tableware manufacturers in the city of Lampang, Thailand. Data consist of face-to-face interviews with principals in thirty-four manufacturers, and with representatives of supporting institutions. We find that an unwillingness to share knowledge with potential competitors retards the development of specialization in production; the outcome of efforts by various government actors and some manufacturers to change this situation is uncertain.
    Keywords: ceramic manufacturing, knowledge, Lampang, networks, secrecy, Thailand
    JEL: D85
    Date: 2011–05

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