nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2011‒01‒16
nine papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. The Stability of Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons By Tang, Chor Foon; Lai, Yew Wah
  2. Spatial Decentralization and Program Evaluation: Theory and an Example from Indonesia By Nidhiya Menon; Mark M. Pitt
  3. The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy By Gunther Schnabl
  4. The dynamic relationship between private domestic investment, the user cost of capital, and economic growth in Malaysia By Tan, Bee Wah; Tang, Chor Foon
  5. Investigating the Impact of Carbon Tax to Power Generation in Java-Bali System by Applying Optimization Technique By Maxensius Tri Sambodo
  6. A Set of Limited Asian Pacific Corporate Governance Standards After Financial Crisis, Corporate Scandals and Manipulation By Dinh, Tran Ngoc Huy
  7. After the Reforms: Determinants of Wage Growth and Change in Wage Inequality in Vietnam - 1998 -2008 By FANG Zheng; Chris SAKELLARIOU
  8. Infrastructure Improvement and Its Impact on Indonesian Economic Performance By Djoni Hartono; Tony Irawan; Ferry Irawan
  9. Developmentalism By Erik S. Reinert

  1. By: Tang, Chor Foon; Lai, Yew Wah
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to re-investigate the export-led growth hypothesis for Asia’s Four Little Dragons using cointegration and rolling causality analyses. Employing both bivariate (exports and GDP) and trivariate (exports, GDP and exchange rate) models, the study finds that exports and GDP are cointegrated for all the four economies, implying that there is a long run relationship between the variables. However, the MWALD causality test results differ between the bivariate and trivariate models. The export-led growth hypothesis is valid only for the case of Hong Kong and Singapore in the bivariate model but valid for all four economies in the trivariate model. Furthermore, the rolling regression-based MWALD test shows that export-led growth in each of the four economies is not stable over their respective period of analysis.
    Keywords: Asia’s Four Little Dragons; Export-led growth; Rolling MWALD test
    JEL: O11 C22 F43
    Date: 2011
  2. By: Nidhiya Menon (Department of Economics, Brandeis University); Mark M. Pitt (Brown University)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a novel instrumental variable method for program evaluation that only requires a single cross-section of data on the spatial intensity of programs and outcomes. The instruments are derived from a simple theoretical model of government decision-making in which governments are responsive to the attributes of places and their populations, rather than to the attributes of individuals, in making allocation decisions across space, and have a social welfare function that is spatially weakly separable, that is, that the budgeting process is multi-stage with respect to administrative districts and sub-districts. The spatial instrumental variables model is then estimated and tested by GMM with a single cross-section of Indonesian census data. The results offer support to the identification strategy proposed.
    Keywords: Spatial Decentralization, Program Evaluation, Instrumental Variables, Indonesia
    JEL: C21 H44 O12 C50
    Date: 2010–09
  3. By: Gunther Schnabl (Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig)
    Abstract: During the 1997/98 Asian crisis and the 2007-2010 world financial and economic crisis, China has proved to be a stabilizer for East Asia and the world. The paper stresses the crucial role of the dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China. The paper explores the current role of China's nominal exchange rate stabilization as stabilizing factor for China, East Asia and the world economy. Distortions originating in real exchange rate stabilization are identified and are argued to be a risk for global growth perspectives. To prevent further economic and financial turmoil the paper recommends policy coordination between China and the US. The exit from unconventional low interest rate policies in the US combined with the end of real (but not nominal) exchange rate stabilization in China is seen as necessary to stabilize longterm growth in China, East Asia and the US.
    Keywords: China, dollar peg, structural distortions, international policy coordination, global imbalances
    JEL: F15 F31 F33
    Date: 2011–01–10
  4. By: Tan, Bee Wah; Tang, Chor Foon
    Abstract: This study attempts to examine the dynamic relationship between private domestic investment (PDI), the user cost of capital, and economic growth in Malaysia over the period of 1970 to 2009. Johansen cointegration test suggests that PDI, the user cost of capital, and economic growth are cointegrated in Malaysia. Granger causality test reveals that there is a uni-directional causality running from PDI to economic growth and also from PDI to the user cost of capital in the long run. Moreover, there is a bi-directional causal relationship between economic growth and the user cost of capital in the long run. Meanwhile, there is a strong evidence of a bi-directional causality between PDI, economic growth, and the user cost of capital in the short run. For completeness, variance decomposition is also generated and the results suggest that PDI is more important than the user cost of capital in explaining the variation of economic growth. Finally, the impulse response function confirmed that a shock in the user cost capital exerts a negative effect on PDI and economic growth in Malaysia.
    Keywords: Causality; Cointegration; Economic growth; Private domestic investment
    JEL: O53 E22 O16 C22
    Date: 2011
  5. By: Maxensius Tri Sambodo (Economic Research Center-Indonesian Institute of Sciences (P2E-LIPI))
    Abstract: Java-Bali power system dominates the national installed capacity and will contribute to about 76% of the national CO2 emissions from the electricity sector in the future. Thus, minimizing CO2 emission from the Java-Bali system can help Indonesia to reduce the national CO2 emissions level. We apply optimization approach to investigate this problem by including carbon tax into the cost function. We analyzed data based on electricity generating system in 2008. In general the optimization showed that diesel and gas turbine is not needed in the power plant system. Further, the simulation showed that if Indonesia adopted carbon tax by US$56/ton CO2 - USD 86/tCO2; it will lead to three major changing. First, carbon tax will increase the cost of power plant or equivalently increase tax revenue to about 2.1% of GDP in a year. Second, combine cycle has important role to offset decreasing output in steam power plant. Finally, by implementing carbon tax, daily CO2 can decrease by 77,586 ton per day. By applying sensitivity analysis, we also found a structural break in marginal cost when carbon tax is higher than US$ 50/tCO2. There are some weaknesses from this study such as not use strong assumption for availability factor and generating costs. This study proposed that government needs to optimize utilization of combine cycle power plan to offset steam power and implement carbon tax above US$ 50/ ton CO2, to reduce CO2 emissions significantly.
    Keywords: Power generation, Carbon tax, Optimization
    JEL: C6 Q4
    Date: 2010–12
  6. By: Dinh, Tran Ngoc Huy
    Abstract: Up to now there are some researches done in the field of giving a framework of implementation of corporate governance standards after corporate scandals, negative market manipulation during the post-crisis periods. This paper mainly concentrates on empirical research for findings in this field. First, it comes up with four (4) groups of findings on corporate governance subjects in the post-crisis and post-scandal time. It found out that companies in these periods have certain corporate governance issues such as how to better organize an information disclosure system. Second, it compared and identified differences in current and latest corporate governance standard system in four (4) countries in Asian Pacific region: Japan, Australia, Philippines and Korea. Third, this paper provide with a short summary of evaluation of current corporate governance principles in these four countries which can enable corporations to seek and to compare to their current codes. Last but not least, it aims to realize a limited general set of standards of Asian Pacific corporate governance and give proper recommendations to relevant governments and organizations.
    Keywords: Corporate governance structure; CEO; Chair; principles; Board of Directors; Compliance; Internal audit
    JEL: G30 M10
    Date: 2010–12–24
  7. By: FANG Zheng (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798); Chris SAKELLARIOU (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798)
    Abstract: The Vietnam “renovation” reforms were implemented during the 1990s, but their full effect was only felt many years later. We present evidence on the developments in real wage growth and inequality in Vietnam from 1998 to 2008. For men, wage growth was underpinned by both increases in endowments of productive characteristics (mainly education) as well as changes in the wage structure (mainly associated with experience) and residual changes. For women, the wage structure effect was the main contributor to wage growth and the most important determinant was the change in the pattern of the returns to experience: younger, less experienced workers enjoyed a premium compared to more experience workers, reversing the previous, opposite pattern. Conventional measures of inequality as well as background analysis show that wage inequality decreased sharply through the 1990s until 2006, but increased subsequently. Over the entire 10-year period, wage inequality increased slightly and more so for women.
    Keywords: Wage inequality, counterfactual decompositions, Asia, Vietnam
    JEL: D33 J31 J42
    Date: 2010–06
  8. By: Djoni Hartono (Graduate Program in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia); Tony Irawan (Department of Economics,Faculty of Economics and Management, Bogor Agricultural University IPB); Ferry Irawan (Fiscal Policy Office - Ministry of Finance)
    Abstract: Indonesian government shows big commitment on the improvement of infrastructure which is reflected in some regulations and policies. It is supported by many empirical evidences that show the importance of infrastructure improvement on economic performance. In this paper, we develop a CGE model to analyze the impact of infrastructure on Indonesian economy by introducing several types of infrastructure and also discuss the impact of infrastructure on the poverty level. The results suggest that improvement on any types of infrastructure is expected will increase economic growth, raise government revenue, raise factor’s income and reduce the poverty level. Improvement on public work of agriculture, land transportation and telecommunication are still preferable option relative to others. Interestingly, even though public work of agriculture usually is located in rural areas, but the model suggest that public work of agriculture improvement will result higher impact on urban household relative to rural household.
    Keywords: CGE
    Date: 2010–12
  9. By: Erik S. Reinert
    Abstract: Develpmentalism . or the idea of the .developmental stateÿ . was one of the most spectacularly successful ideologies of the 20th century. The Cold War and the division of most ideas into a camp of either being politically to the .rightÿ or to the .leftÿ has obliterated the fact that Developmentalism was successfully performed along the whole political axis, from fascism via social democracy to communism. In their emphasis on economic growth built on industrial mass production . on the idea that only a certain type of national economic structure is conducive to increased wealth . Stalin, Hitler and the Scandinavian social democracies all represented Developmentalism. With the growth and eventual dominance of neo-classical economics and economic neoliberalism, Developmentalism gradually disappeared along the whole political axis, with the exception of Asia and to some extent Brazil.
    Date: 2010–12

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