nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2010‒11‒20
ten papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. How Responsive is Poverty to Growth? A Regional Analysis of Poverty, Inequality, and Growth in Indonesia, 1984-99 By Jed Friedman
  2. Relative income and happiness in Asia: Evidence from nationwide surveys in China, Japan, and Korea By Oshio, Takashi; Nozaki, Kayo; Kobayashi, Miki
  3. Bank lending channel of monetary policy: dynamic panel data evidence from Malaysia By Abdul Karim, Zulkefly; Wan Ngah, Wan Azman Saini; Abdul Karim, Bakri
  4. Phasing Out Energy Subsidies in Indonesia By Annabelle Mourougane
  5. Protecting child nutritional status in the aftermath of a financial crisis : evidence from Indonesia By Giles, John; Satriawan, Elan
  6. The term structure of interest rates, the expectations hypothesis and international financial integration: Evidence from Asian Economies By Mark J. Holmes; Theodore Panagiotidis; Jesus Otero
  7. A Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP): Is It Desirable? By Park, Innwon; Park, Soonchan; Kim, Sangkyom
  8. Foreign Aid and Recipient Countries` Exports: Does Aid Promote Bilateral Trade? By Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D.; Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso; Adriana Cardozo; Dierk Herzer; Stephan Klasen
  9. Asian Fertility Transition: Is Gender Equity in Formal Occupations An Explanatory Factor? By D. Narayana
  10. Subgame Perfect Cooperation in an Extensive Game By Parkash Chander; Myrna Wooders

  1. By: Jed Friedman
    Abstract: This paper uses six nationally representative household consumption surveys to develop successive poverty profiles for Indonesia over a fifteen-year period of sustained high growth followed by rapid contraction. Adopting a ‘cost-of-basic-needs’ approach to poverty determination (an approach particularly suited to measures of absolute poverty), this paper develops price indices and calculates poverty lines from unit value data, an often neglected source of information. [Discussion Paper No. 2003/57]
    Keywords: poverty, growth, inequality, Indonesia
    Date: 2010
  2. By: Oshio, Takashi; Nozaki, Kayo; Kobayashi, Miki
    Abstract: This study attempts to examine relative income effects on perceived happiness in three major Asian countries -- China, Japan, and Korea -- in comparison with the United Sates, on the basis of largely comparable nationwide surveys in these countries. Consistent with the results from previous studies in Western countries, comparisons with an individual's own income and average income of the reference group are significantly associated with the individual's perceived happiness in Asia. The associations between relative income and happiness are stronger for individual income than family income in China, while the opposite is true in Japan and Korea. Even after controlling for the subjective assessment of family income or personal class identification within the society as a whole, income comparisons within the reference group matter for assessing happiness, especially when using family income for comparisons. Moreover, relative deprivation within the reference group, which is measured by the Yitzhaki index, is negatively related to happiness, providing more evidence for the validity of the relative income hypothesis.
    Keywords: Relative income, Relative deprivation, Asia
    Date: 2010–10
  3. By: Abdul Karim, Zulkefly; Wan Ngah, Wan Azman Saini; Abdul Karim, Bakri
    Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the relevance of bank-lending channel (BLC) of monetary policy in a small-open economy, i.e. Malaysia by using disaggregated bank-level data set. A dynamic panel data method namely GMM framework proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991), Arellano and Bover (1995), and Blundell and Bond (1998) have been used in estimating the dynamic of banks’ loan supply function. The empirical evidence has stated that monetary policy shocks is significantly and negatively influenced the banks’ loan supply, and therefore has supported the existence of BLC in Malaysia. In addition, several bank-characteristics variables namely bank liquidity and bank capitalization (capital adequacy ratio) are also statistically significant in influencing the banks’ loan supply. Therefore, the implementation of monetary policy is effective in influencing economic activity via bank balance sheet position, in particular bank loans.
    Keywords: Bank-lending channel; monetary policy; dynamic panel data
    JEL: E58 E52 C33
    Date: 2010–09–10
  4. By: Annabelle Mourougane
    Abstract: The oil price hike in 2007-08 underlined the vulnerability of Indonesia’s energy subsidy policy to oil price volatility. In addition to entailing significant economic and environmental costs, energy subsidies put pressure on the public budget and benefit mostly rich households. Phasing them out would benefit both the economy and the environment. At the same time, past experience in Indonesia and elsewhere suggests that such a reform is likely to face stiff opposition and will therefore need to be carefully designed and communicated. Compensation in the form of targeted cash transfers will help to shield low-income households from attendant rise in energy prices. This Working Paper relates to the 2010 OECD Economic Review of Indonesia (<P>Éliminer progressivement les subventions à l’énergie en l’Indonésie<BR>La flambée des prix du pétrole de 2007-08 a montré que la politique de subventions à l’énergie de l’Indonésie était sensible à la volatilité des prix du pétrole. En plus d’entraîner des coûts économiques et environnementaux importants, les subventions à l’énergie pèsent sur les finances publiques et profitent essentiellement aux ménages aisés. Leur suppression progressive aurait donc des effets positifs sur l’économie comme sur l’environnement. Toutefois, l’expérience de l’Indonésie et d’autres pays montre qu’une telle réforme risque de rencontrer une vive opposition et qu’il importe donc d’accorder une grande attention à la façon dont elle est conçue et expliquée. Des mécanismes de compensation sous forme de transferts monétaires ciblés contribueront à protéger les ménages à faible revenu de la hausse des prix de l’énergie induite par la réforme. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de l’Indonésie 2010 (
    Keywords: Indonesia, biofuels, energy subsidies, bio-carburants, Indonésie, subventions d'énergie
    Date: 2010–10–26
  5. By: Giles, John; Satriawan, Elan
    Abstract: This paper exploits heterogeneity in program exposure to evaluate the effectiveness of a supplementary feeding program implemented in the wake of the 1997-1998 economic crises in Indonesia. The explicit aim of the program was to protect the nutritional status of infants and young children from adverse effects of the crisis. The use of heterogeneity in program exposure has several advantages for identifying the impact of the program. First, the analysis avoids the strong assumption that all targeted children experienced homogenous exposure to the program, and facilitates identification in a setting in which nearly all communities experienced some exposure. Second, by exploiting child age and program eligibility rules, the paper estimates models with community fixed effects and thus avoid bias introduced as a result of endogenous program placement. The analysis finds that the program improved the nutritional status of children 12 to 24 months of age at the time of the survey in 2000, and helped to avoid problems of severe malnutrition among young children.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Youth and Governance,Housing&Human Habitats,Population Policies,Social Cohesion
    Date: 2010–11–01
  6. By: Mark J. Holmes (Department of Economics, Waikato University Management School); Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Jesus Otero (Facultad de Economia, Universidad del Rosario)
    Abstract: The validity of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is examined for a sample of Asian countries. A panel stationarity testing procedure is employed that addresses both structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence. Asian term structures are found to be stationary and supportive of the expectations hypothesis. Further analysis suggests that international financial integration is associated with interdependencies between domestic and foreign term structures insofar as cross-term structures based on differentials between domestic (foreign) short- and foreign (domestic) long-rates are also stationary.
    Keywords: Heterogeneous dynamic panels, term structure, mean reversion, panel stationarity test
    JEL: C33 F31 F33 G15
    Date: 2010–11
  7. By: Park, Innwon; Park, Soonchan; Kim, Sangkyom
    Abstract: This paper evaluates whether the proposed FTAAP is a desirable policy option for APEC member economies and the world economy. More specifically, this paper quantitatively investigates whether the FTAAP satisfies conditions for a trade bloc to generate positive and sufficient net trade creation effect. In addition, this paper estimates the likely impact of the FTAAP by using a CGE model analysis. Based on statistical data analysis, this paper strongly argues that the FTAAP can be a desirable regional trade bloc able to generate positive gains from freer trade. From the ex-ante scenario analysis using both static and capital accumulation CGE Models, this paper concludes that the FTAAP has great potential for improving welfare of participating APEC economies and will boost economic growth in the region. In particular, the FTAAP would be even better if it can be linked with liberalization of trade in services and enhanced trade facilitation.
    Keywords: Regional Trade Agreement (RTA); APEC; FTAAP; Computable General Equilibrium (CGE); Trade in Services; Trade Facilitation
    JEL: F15 F13
    Date: 2010–09–01
  8. By: Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Germany); Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Germany); Adriana Cardozo; Dierk Herzer (Schumpeter School of Business and Economis, Wuppertal / Germany); Stephan Klasen (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen / Germany)
    Abstract: This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the link between foreign aid and exports in recipient countries. Most of the theoretical work emphasizes the negative impact of aid on recipient countries’ exports primarily due to exchange rate appreciation, disregarding possible positive effects of aid in promoting bilateral trade relations. The empirical findings, in contrast, indicate that the net impact of aid on recipient countries’ exports is positive -even though the macroeconomic impact of aid is rather small- and that the average return for recipients’ exports is about 1.50 US$ for every aid dollar spent. We argue that “bilateral aid” seems to promote good bilateral trade relations, mutual trust and familiarity and that those factors reinforce bilateral trade, including recipient country exports. The paper also estimates the effect of different types of aid (bilateral aid versus multilateral aid flowing to a specific recipient) and studies aid’s contribution to an expansion of exports in different regions of the world. It is found that aid is strongly export-enhancing in Asia and Latin America, but not in Africa.
    Keywords: International trade; foreign aid; recipient exports; bilateral trade relations
    JEL: F10 F35
    Date: 2010–11–10
  9. By: D. Narayana
    Abstract: Early writers on fertility decline (Thompson 1929; Davis 1945 1955 1963; Notestein 1945; Feemdman 1961 -62) emphasized broad forces of modernization, such as urbanization, industrialization, shifts to non-agricultural labor, and increased literacy, as bringing about changes in traditional structures. The neoclassical theoreticians shifted the focus to the micro-level and translated the changes in macro conditions into individual and household calculations. Both these strands of theoretical work have come under attack in recent years. [Working Paper No. 268]
    Keywords: fertility, modernisation, urbanisation, industrialization, traditional
    Date: 2010
  10. By: Parkash Chander (National University of Singapore and CORE, Universite Catholique de Louvain); Myrna Wooders (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University)
    Abstract: This paper brings together two of the most important solution concepts of game theory –subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium of a non-cooperative game and the core of a cooperativegame. Our approach rests on two fundamental ideas: (1) Given an extensive game, the formationof a coalition leads to a new game where all the members of the coalition become one player. (2)At the origin of any subgame, the only possible coalitions consist of players who have decision nodes in the subgame. We introduce a concept of subgame perfect cooperative equilibrium, which we label the gamma-core of an extensive game. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of the gamma-core of an extensive game of perfect information. As a motivating example, we formulate the problem of global warming as a dynamic game with simultaneous moves and show that if the payoff functions are quadratic, then the gamma-core of the game is nonempty.
    Keywords: subgame perfect cooperation, extensive form game, subgame perfection, gamma-core
    JEL: C72
    Date: 2010–06

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