|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Siow Yue Chia (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The global economic crisis has affected the East Asian economies via trade and investment. The export-led model which had been responsible for the “East Asian Miracle” now must redirect the basis of growth from exports sent to the US and Europe to regional and domestic demand. Regional trade integration has been market-led through production networks and foreign direct investment (FDI). Since the proliferation of bilateral and plurilateral free trade agreements (FTA) and economic partnership agreements (EPA) has not resulted in an integrated regional market, it is important that East Asia seek an arrangement for a region-wide FTA/EPA. Currently, there are proposals for an ASEAN+3, an ASEAN+6, Pan-Asia, and Asia Pacific initiatives. While proponents of a region-wide FTA/EPA highlight its benefits, skeptics and critics point to the difficulties of reaching consensus in a region with widely varying political, economic, and social systems. Ultimately it will depend on a political-economic decision based on a cost-benefit analysis of liberalization, facilitation, and cooperation in a region-wide FTA. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, free trade agreements, economic partnership agreements, ASEAN+3, an ASEAN+6, Pan-Asia |
| JEL: | F13 F14 O24 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:2256&r=sea |
| By: | Mahani Zainal Abidin (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | East Asian countries were seriously affected by the 2008 global crisis through a steep fall in exports. This experience exposed the vulnerability of the East Asian growth model and emphasized the importance of generating regional growth by expanding domestic demand and enlarging intra-regional trade. A key factor to achieving higher regional economic growth and enlarging intra-regional trade is the better connectivity of infrastructure such as roads, ports, airports, and rail links. Although some East Asian countries have made large investments in improving their infrastructures, others still lag behind. In response to the global crisis, East Asian countries have allocated a significant proportion of their stimulus packages to infrastructure development. While these investments have improved national facilities, East Asian countries will only be well connected when there are good cross-border infrastructures in place. This requires a large amount of funding, and funds from both within and outside the region could be mobilized to fulfill these huge financing needs. Hence, an East Asian Infrastructure Investment Fund (EAIIF) is proposed to provide a mechanism to organize this funding and to be a platform for deciding on cross-border infrastructure projects. The EAIIF would be anchored to the existing Association of Southeast Asian Nations+3 mechanism with the leader’s summit being the apex of the decision making process. A four-level mechanism is proposed, consisting of cooperation amongst political leadership; a steering committee and secretariat for executing the decisions of the leaders; fund mobilization; and the implementation and monitoring of projects. Projects chosen could be those with a high rate of commercial returns or those with the highest social benefits. The EAIIF would invite the private sector to participate by setting a framework for the sharing of risks between the public and private sectors. Likewise, there would also be a sharing of risks between countries. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, East Asian Infrastructure Investment Fund, growth, Southeast Asian Nations+3, economic growth, East Asian growth model |
| JEL: | H40 H54 E61 E63 F15 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:2251&r=sea |
| By: | Ila Patnaik; Ajay Shah; Anmol Sethy; Vimal Balasubramaniam (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Prior to the Asian financial crisis, most Asian exchange rates were de facto pegged to the US Dollar. In the crisis, many economies experienced a brief period of extreme flexibility. A `fear of floating' gave reduced flexibility when the crisis subsided, but flexibility after the crisis was greater than that seen prior to the crisis. Contrary to the idea of a durable Bretton Woods II arrangement, Asia then went on to slowly raise flexibility and reduce the role for the US Dollar. When the period from April 2008 to December 2009 is compared against periods of high inflexibility, from January 1991 to November 1991 and October 1995 to March 1997, the increase in flexibility is economically and statistically significant. This paper proposes a new measure of dollar pegging, the "Bretton Woods II score". We find that by this measure Asia has been slowly moving away from a Bretton Woods II arrangement. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate regime, Asia, Bretton Woods II hypothesis |
| JEL: | F31 F33 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:financ:2225&r=sea |
| By: | Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Asia faces very large infrastructure funding demands, estimated at around US$750 billion per year for energy, transport, telecommunications, water, and sanitation during 2010–2020 (ADB/ADBI 2009). Asia has large savings, significant international reserves, and rapid accumulations of funds that could be utilized for meeting these infrastructure investment needs, but Asian markets have failed to use available resources to channel funding into highly needed infrastructure projects. This paper explores issues and challenges in financing infrastructure for seamless Asian infrastructure connectivity and for other high priority development financing needs, and seeks methods and instruments to help direct Asian and international resources to cost-effectively and efficiently support infrastructure and other development needs. The paper discusses three important topics: First, what are the lessons for Asia from the European Union’s experience of developing and integrating financial markets and using development banking institutions to support infrastructure investment? Second, how can Asian public and private resources, such as pension funds, social security funds, sovereign wealth funds, and private portfolio funds contribute to infrastructure development across Asia? Third, can Islamic financial markets provide funds for Asian infrastructure development? Finally, the paper makes recommendations regarding financing options and how Asian financial markets and infrastructure companies could be further developed and integrated to mobilize Asian and other regions’ savings for financing priority infrastructure projects in the region. |
| Keywords: | savings, international reserves, infrastructure investment, pension funds, Islamic finance, |
| JEL: | G10 G20 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:financ:2254&r=sea |
| By: | Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | To make Asia more economically sustainable and resilient against external shocks, regional economies need to be rebalanced toward regional demand- and trade-driven growth through increased regional connectivity. The effectiveness of connectivity depends on the quality of hard and soft infrastructure. Of particular importance in terms of soft infrastructure which makes hard infrastructure work are the facilitating institutions that support connectivity through appropriate policies, reforms, systems, and procedures and through promoting effective coordination and cooperation. Asia has many overlapping subregional institutions involved in national and regional energy, transport, and telecommunications infrastructure connectivity. However, these institutions are characterized as being less effective, informal, and lacking a clear and binding system of rules and policies. This paper draws linkages between connectivity, growth and development, governance, and institutions. It details the benefits the region could achieve by addressing needed connectivity enhancements and the connectivity and financing challenges it faces. In addition, it presents various institutional options for regional infrastructure financing. To build seamless Asian connectivity, Asia needs an effective, formal, and rules-based institutional framework. The paper presents a new institutional framework together with the organizational structures of two new regional institutional mechanisms, namely the Pan-Asian Infrastructure Forum and the Asian Infrastructure Fund. |
| Keywords: | connectivity, infrastructure, institution, linkages, Pan-Asian Infrastructure Forum, Asian Infrastructure Fund |
| JEL: | R10 R40 R42 R48 R50 R51 R58 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:govern:2250&r=sea |
| By: | Prabir De; Muthi Samudram; Sanjeev Moholkar (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This study examines a range of crossborder infrastructure development issues related to the Asian countries. Despite active pursuit of private investment in infrastructure by most developing countries in Asia and a growing number of success stories, the pace of such investment remains slow. Participation by the private sector in infrastructure development has been mixed. While there has been moderate progress in national infrastructure development by the private sector, progress is rather limited in the case of development of crossborder infrastructure in Asia. This study documents that Asian countries have attracted higher private sector investment for the development of national infrastructure projects such as seaports and airports as compared to crossborder infrastructure projects. The rising trend among private investors in infrastructure projects indicates a decline of investments by developed country investors. One of the findings of this study is that crossborder energy projects have received greater private sector investment globally as compared to transport, telecommunication, and water projects. In the context of Asia, too, energy sector projects still dominate the investment scenario. By considering all modes of financing, this study finds that crossborder infrastructure financing in Asia has witnessed an upward trend in the last decade and a half. Aside from hydropower projects in Bhutan, crossborder infrastructure in Asia is pursued through public-private partnerships. Interestingly, these few crossborder projects in Asia have limited private sector investors, compared to other regions, despite a wide base of local investors in Asia. This paper also shows that public sector investment drives crossborder energy and transportation projects in Asia, whereas private sector investments have picked up the pace only recently, specifically after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. This study recommends that given the huge infrastructure investment needs of the region and insufficient government resources, the role of the private sector and public-private partnerships in enhancing infrastructure facilities in Asia is very crucial. A review of select case studies of crossborder infrastructure projects clearly indicates that the major reasons for slow progress of regional infrastructure development by private sector stem from both economic to non-economic issues that need to be addressed in order to promote seamless Asia. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, crossborder energy projects, public-private partnerships, 1997 Asian financial crisis |
| JEL: | F2 F3 G2 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:2258&r=sea |
| By: | De, Prabir (Asian Development Bank Institute); Samudram, Muthi (Asian Development Bank Institute); Moholkar, Sanjeev (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This study examines a range of cross-border infrastructure development issues related to the Asian countries. Despite active pursuit of private investment in infrastructure by most developing countries in Asia and a growing number of success stories, the pace of such investment remains slow. Participation by the private sector in infrastructure development has been mixed. While there has been moderate progress in national infrastructure development by the private sector, progress is rather limited in the case of development of cross-border infrastructure in Asia. This study documents that Asian countries have attracted higher private sector investment for the development of national infrastructure projects such as seaports and airports as compared to cross-border infrastructure projects. The rising trend among private investors in infrastructure projects indicates a decline of investments by developed country investors. One of the findings of this study is that cross-border energy projects have received greater private sector investment globally as compared to transport, telecommunication, and water projects. In the context of Asia, too, energy sector projects still dominate the investment scenario. By considering all modes of financing, this study finds that cross-border infrastructure financing in Asia has witnessed an upward trend in the last decade and a half. Aside from hydropower projects in Bhutan, cross-border infrastructure in Asia is pursued through public-private partnerships. Interestingly, these few cross-border projects in Asia have limited private sector investors, compared to other regions, despite a wide base of local investors in Asia. This paper also shows that public sector investment drives cross-border energy and transportation projects in Asia, whereas private sector investments have picked up the pace only recently, specifically after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. This study recommends that given the huge infrastructure investment needs of the region and insufficient government resources, the role of the private sector and public-private partnerships in enhancing infrastructure facilities in Asia is very crucial. A review of select case studies of cross-border infrastructure projects clearly indicates that the major reasons for slow progress of regional infrastructure development by private sector stem from both economic to non-economic issues that need to be addressed in order to promote seamless Asia. |
| Keywords: | asia regional infrastructure; crossborder infrastructure |
| JEL: | F20 F30 G20 |
| Date: | 2010–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0245&r=sea |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University); Thanchanok Khamkaew (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University); Michael McAleer (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Roengchai Tansuchat (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University) |
| Abstract: | International and domestic tourism are leading economic activities in the world today. Tourism has been known to generate goods and services directly and indirectly, attract foreign currency, stimulate employment, and provide opportunities for investment. It has also been recognized as an important means for achieving economic development. Substantial research has been conducted to evaluate the role of international tourism, and its associated volatility, within and across various economies. This paper applies several recently developed models of multivariate conditional volatility to investigate the interdependence of international tourism demand, as measured by international tourist arrivals, and its associated volatility in the four leading destinations in ASEAN, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Each of these countries has attractive tourism characteristics, such as significant cultural and natural resources. Shocks to international tourism demand volatility could affect, positively or negatively, the volatility in tourism demand of neighbouring countries. The empirical results should encourage regional co-operation in tourism development among ASEAN member countries, and also mobilize international and regional organizations to provide appropriate policy actions. |
| Keywords: | Tourism demand, ASEAN, multivariate GARCH, volatility spillovers, interdependence, economic development, seasonality |
| JEL: | C22 C32 F50 O53 |
| Date: | 2010–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:719&r=sea |
| By: | Hamada, Miki; Konishi, Masaru |
| Abstract: | After the Asian financial crisis of 1997, it was confirmed that banks lend to their related parties in many countries. The question examined in this article is whether related lending functions to alleviate the problems of asymmetric information or transfers profits from depositors and minority shareholders to related parties. The effects of related lending on the profitability and risk of banks in Indonesia are examined using panel data from 1994 to 2007 comprising a total of 74 Indonesian banks. The effects on return on asset (ROA) varied at different periods. Before and right after the crisis, a higher credit allocation to related parties increased ROA. In middle of the crisis, it turned to negative; and this has also been the case in the most recent period as the Indonesian economy has normalized. Effects of related lending on bank risk measured by the Z-score and non-performing loan is not clear. After undergoing bank restructuring, related lending has decreased and the profit structure of banks has changed. |
| Keywords: | Banks, Loans, Industrial management |
| JEL: | G21 G38 O1 O16 |
| Date: | 2010–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper229&r=sea |
| By: | Hwee Kwan Chow (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the choices facing the Asian tiger economies regarding growth strategies that foster trans-Pacific rebalancing. A review of historical data spanning 2000 to 2008 reveals only a slight widening of the overall current account surplus but that there is considerable variation across the countries, with Hong Kong, China exhibiting the biggest increase in the saving and investment (S-I) balance. Meanwhile, cross-correlation coefficient estimates tentatively suggest that changes in the real effective exchange rate do not seem to exhibit a consistent negative lead over changes in the S-I gap in the short run over the past decade. High import leakage, particularly for the ultra small, open economies of Hong Kong and Singapore, calls into question the scope for recalibrating growth drivers towards domestic demand. Nonetheless, the implementation of structural policies such as those aimed at raising the productivity and wages of workers in the services industry as well as the introduction of financial products that alleviates the need for precautionary saving can induce domestic consumer demand, especially for the larger economies of Korea and Taipei,China. Moreover, the rising affluence and living standards in fast growing regional economies such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC) offers the Asian tigers the potential of gearing their trade structure in final goods towards markets in the region, thereby aiding the reduction in trans-Pacific imbalances. |
| Keywords: | saving and investment balance, import leakage, People’s Republic of China, trade structure, Asian tigers |
| JEL: | F32 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:2257&r=sea |
| By: | Peng Zhang |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analytically study the pricing of the arithmetically averaged Asian option in the path integral formalism. By a trick about the Dirac delta function, the measure of the path integral is defined by an effective action whose potential term is an exponential function, i.e. the Liouville Hamiltonian, which can be explicitly solved. After working out some auxiliary integrations involving Bessel and Whittaker functions, we arrive at the spectral expansion expression of the value of an Asian option. |
| Date: | 2010–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1008.4841&r=sea |
| By: | Esther Duflo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the medium run consequences of an increase in the rate of accumulation of human capital in a developing country. From 1974 to 1978, the Indonesian government built over 61,000 primary schools. The school construction program led to an increase in education among individuals who were young enough to attend primary school after 1974, but not among the older cohorts. 2SLS estimates suggest that an increase of 10 percentage points in the proportion of primary school graduates in the labor force reduced the wages of the older cohorts by 3.8% to 10% and increased their formal labor force participation by 4% to 7%. I propose a two-sector model as a framework to interpret these findings. The results suggest that physical capital did not adjust to the faster increase in human capital. [Working Paper No. 002] |
| Keywords: | returns to education, medium run, transitional dynamics |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2787&r=sea |
| By: | Fabio Aricò; Laurence Lasselle; Kannika Thampanishvong |
| Abstract: | Non-formal education programmes are active in a number of developing countries. These programmes offer vulnerable students an opportunity to pursue their education although they were excluded for various reasons from the formal education systems. This paper examines the impact of two programmes (one in Mauritius, and one in Thailand) on their participants’ aspirations towards learning. We develop a methodology to measure the perception of students regarding their learning experience. More than a third of them, for example, believe that there is no barrier to their education. Most acknowledge the role of their teachers in raising their aspirations towards their educational achievement. When compared to male students, female students seem to value more the role of their education. |
| Keywords: | Non-formal Education, Aspirations, Mauritius, Thailand. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:wpecon:1005&r=sea |
| By: | Rainer Kattel; Vaiko Lember |
| Abstract: | So far, only 40 countries have joined WTOÿs Government Procurement Agreement (GPA), from the developing world only some East Asian (Hong Kong [China], South Korea, Singapore) economies and ten Eastern European countries are parties to the agreement. This article sets out to answer two interrelated questions: is it advisable for developing countries to use public procurement efforts for development, and should more developing countries join the GPA? We survey key arguments for and against joining the GPA, and by adopting the framework of public procurement for innovation, we argue that government procurement should not be seen only as an indirect support measure for development, but also as a direct vehicle for promoting innovation and industries and, thus, growth and development. We also show that using public procurement for development assumes high levels of policy capacity, which most developing countries lack. In addition, we show how the GPA as well as other WTO agreements make it complicated for the developing countries to benefit from public procurement for innovation. As a result, the article suggests that the developing countries could apply a mix of direct and indirect (so-called soft) publicprocurement- for-innovation measures. In order to do this, developing countries need to develop the policy capacity to take advantage of the complex and multi-layered industrial policy space still available under WTO rules. |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tth:wpaper:31&r=sea |
| By: | Fukunishi, Takahiro |
| Abstract: | FDI in the garment sector has been the single case of large-scale manufacturing investment in African low-income countries since the 1990s. While FDI has triggered the development of local industries in many developing countries, it has not yet been realized in Africa. This paper describes the spillover process in the Kenyan garment industry and investigates the background of local firms' behavior through firm interviews and simulation of expected profits in export market. It shows that credit constraint, rather than absorptive capacity, is a primary source of inactive participation in export opportunity. Only firms which afford additional production facilities without sacrificing stable domestic supply may be motivated to start exporting. However, in comparison with successful Asian exporters, those firms were not as motivated as Asian firms due to the large gap in expected profits. |
| Keywords: | Textile industry, Foreign investments, Exports, Manufacturing exports, FDI spillover, sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | F21 L67 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2010–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper232&r=sea |
| By: | Hristos Doucouliagos; Sasi Iamsiraroj; Mehmet Ali Ulubasoglu |
| Abstract: | The macroeconomic impact of FDI has been a longstanding source of debate. This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the empirical evidence accumulated over the past three decades on the effects of FDI on economic growth. Meta-regression analysis is applied to 880 estimates of this effect from 108 empirical studies. This analysis reveals that FDI has overall a positive effect on growth. Compared to North America, the growth effect of FDI is larger in Western Europe and is weaker in the Middle East and South East Asia. The positive effect of FDI on growth is amplified when FDI interacts with financial development, trade, and human capital. Finally, higher levels of FDI are associated with larger governments, more developed financial markets, lower inflation, higher levels of schooling, and higher levels of foreign aid. |
| Keywords: | FDI, economic growth, meta-regression analysis |
| JEL: | F21 F4 |
| Date: | 2010–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dkn:econwp:eco_2010_14&r=sea |
| By: | Venkatachalam Anbumozhi; Armin Bauer (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis and the resulting economic slowdown may be assumed to have at least the benefit of also reducing environmental degradation in the individual countries. This paper discusses the consequences of the crisis for energy use, pollution prevention, and land use in Asia and the associated emissions of greenhouse gases—the principal global warming pollutants—as well as their linkage with poverty. There are some short-term benefits to the global environment from the economic slowdown. Such benefits include reduction in the rate of air and water pollution from reduced energy use—which has direct implications for the urban poor’s health. However, modest benefits to global and local environments arising from the economic slowdown are likely to be much smaller than the costs associated with many environmental conservation measures, related to energy savings, natural resources protection, and water environment. Both supply and demand side investments in energy and environment are being affected. Many ongoing projects are being slowed and a number of downward revisions are being made in expected profitability. Meanwhile, businesses and households are spending less on energy efficiency measures. Tighter credit and lower prices make investment in energy savings and environmental conservation less attractive financially, while the economic crisis is encouraging end users to rein in spending across the board. This is delaying the deployment of more efficient technology and equipment. Furthermore, solution providers are expected to reduce investment in research, development, and commercialization of more energy-efficient models, unless they are able to secure financial support from governments. The economic slowdown is likely to alter land use patterns by increasing the pressure to clear forests for firewood, timber, or agricultural purposes—the livelihood opportunities available with the rural poor. Further, the likely additional delay in many countries in the construction of effluent treatment plans for limiting the discharge of pollutants into the rivers is expected to harm the water environment. Thus on balance, the modest benefits to global and local environments arising from the economic slowdown are likely to be much smaller than the costs of many environmental conservation measures for improving the livelihood conditions of the poor. Natural resources and ecosystem services provided by the environment are essential to support economic growth and better livelihood conditions of the poor. Inaction on key environmental challenges, such as climate change, could lead to severe economic consequences in the future. These concerns justify government action to support investment in green growth measures, promoting direct investment or fiscal incentives for energy efficiency and clean environment low-carbon technologies. But much more needs to be done. The investment needed to put national economies in lowcarbon green growth pathways far exceeds what is expected to occur. Governments should be looking to increase the new funds they commit to long-term energy and environmental policies to improve livelihood conditions and to shift our development trend into an environmentally sustainable future. Hence a commitment that extends well beyond the economic stimulus packages is needed. |
| Keywords: | global financial crisis, energy use, pollution prevention, land use, climate change, poverty, agriculture |
| JEL: | Q27 Q42 Q48 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:develo:2253&r=sea |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan; Guzman, Stacey; Zhang, Hua |
| Abstract: | Growing concerns over global motorization and climate change have led to increasing interest in sustainable transportation alternatives, such as bikesharing (the shared use of a bicycle fleet). Since 1965, bikesharing has grown across the globe on four continents including: Europe, North America, South America, and Asia (including Australia). Today, there are approximately 100 bikesharing programs operating in an estimated 125 cities around the world with over 139,300 bicycles. Bikesharing’s evolution is categorized into three generations: 1) White Bikes (or Free Bike Systems); 2) Coin-Deposit Systems; and 3) IT-Based Systems. In this paper, the authors propose a fourth-generation: “Demand-Responsive, Multi-Modal Systems.†A range of existing bikesharing business models (e.g., advertising) and lessons learned are discussed including: 1) bicycle theft and vandalism; 2) bicycle redistribution; 3) information systems (e.g., real-time information); 4) insurance and liability concerns; and 5) pre-launch considerations. While limited in number, several studies have documented bikesharing’s social and environmental benefits including reduced auto use, increased bicycle use, and a growing awareness of bikesharing as a daily mobility option. Despite bikesharing’s ongoing growth, obstacles and uncertainty remain, including: future demand; safety; sustainability of business models; limited cycling infrastructure; challenges to integrating with public transportation systems; technology costs; and user convenience (e.g., limited height adjustment on bicycles, lack of cargo space, and exposure to weather conditions). In the future, more research is needed to better understand bikesharing’s impacts, operations, and business models in light of its reported growth and benefits. |
| Keywords: | UCD-ITS-RR-10-07 |
| Date: | 2010–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:1316350&r=sea |
| By: | Lorena M. D’Agostino; Keld Laursen; Grazia Santangelo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between home and offshore R&D activities on the knowledge production of the investing home region. Debate is ongoing on whether R&D offshoring complements the R&D performed at home. In the light of increased offshoring of innovative activities to emerging countries, we explicitly focus on Brazil, Russia, India, China, Singapore and Taiwan. We suggest that complementarity should obtain, when home region and offshore R&D activities are dissimilar as well as when offshore R&D activities is about modular and less complex technologies. We ground our predictions on arguments related to geographical technological specialisation and reverse knowledge transfer from offshore locations to home regions within the more general open innovation trend. Using a theoretical framework based on the international business literature and the regional system of innovation perspective, we estimate a knowledge production function for a sample of 221 regions from 21 OECD countries with home region patent applications as the dependent variable. Our test supports our predictions on the complementarity between home region and offshore R&D. |
| Keywords: | Home Region R&D; Offshore R&D; Knowledge Production; Complementarity; Emerging Countries |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aal:abbswp:10-19&r=sea |
| By: | Hwang, Min; Quigley, John M. |
| Abstract: | It is widely accepted that aggregate housing prices are predictable, but that excess returns to investors are precluded by the transactions costs of buying and selling property. We examine this issue using a unique data set -- all private condominium transactions in Singapore during an eleven-year period. We model directly the price discovery process for individual dwellings. Our empirical results clearly reject a random walk in prices, supporting mean reversion in housing prices and diffusion of innovations over space. We find that, when house prices and aggregate returns are computed from models that erroneously assume a random walk and spatial independence, they are strongly autocorrelated. However, when they are calculated from the appropriate model, predictability in prices and in investment returns is completely absent. We show that this is due to the illiquid nature of housing transactions. We also conduct extensive simulations, over different time horizons and with different investment rules, testing whether better information on housing price dynamics leads to superior investment performance. |
| Keywords: | housing market liquidity, price discovery, spatial correlation |
| Date: | 2010–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:bphupl:1316597&r=sea |
| By: | Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes (Department of Economics, San Diego State University); Susan Pozo (Department of Economics, Western Michigan University) |
| Abstract: | Using a recent Spanish database on immigrants from all across the globe, we show that remittances respond to differences in macroeconomic conditions at home and abroad. This behavior suggests that immigrants are sophisticated economic optimizers who take advantage of differential returns when accumulating assets. Immigrants remit more when per capita GDP growth rates at home are greater than in Spain, when the home-host real interest-rate differential increases, and when real exchange-rate uncertainty is higher. These patterns differ with ownership of home country assets and with the area of the globe from which immigrants originate, whether it is Africa, the Americas, Europe or Asia. The response of remittances to cross-country differences in portfolio variables suggests that remittances may not be counter-cyclical as often claimed. Hence, paradoxically, while remittances may promote consumption-smoothing at the individual or household level, remittances cannot be relied upon to shore up migrant- sending economies in times of need. |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:201021&r=sea |
| By: | Charles Adams (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews recent state interventions in financial crises and draws lessons for crisis management. A number of areas are identified where crisis management could be strengthened, including with regard to the tools and instruments used to involve the private sector in crisis resolution (with a view to reducing the recent enhanced role of official bailouts and the associated moral hazard), to allow for the orderly resolution of systemically important financial firms (to make these firms “safe to fail”), and with regard to achieving better integration with ex ante macroprudential surveillance. The paper proposes the establishment of high level systemic risk councils (SRCs) in each country with responsibility for overseeing systemic risk in both tranquil times and crisis periods and coordinating the activities of key government ministries, agencies, and the central bank. |
| Keywords: | financial crisis, crisis management, private sector, moral hazard, systemic risk councils |
| JEL: | E58 E01 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:2252&r=sea |
| By: | Joshua Aizenman; Menzie D. Chinna; Hiro Ito (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends our previous paper (Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito 2008) and explores some of the unexplored questions. First, we examine the channels through which the trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility. Secondly, we investigate how trilemma policy configurations affect the output performance of the economies under severe crisis situations. Thirdly, we look into how trilemma configurations have evolved in the aftermath of economic crises in the past. We find that trilemma policy configurations and external finances affect output volatility mainly through the investment channel. While a higher degree of exchange rate stability could stabilize the real exchange rate movement, it could also make investment volatile, though the volatility-enhancing effect of exchange rate stability on investment can be cancelled by holding higher levels of international reserves (IR). Greater financial openness helps reduce real exchange rate volatility. These results indicate that policymakers in a more open economy would prefer pursuing greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness while holding a massive amount of IR. We also find that the “crisis economies” could end up with smaller output losses if they entered the crisis situation with more stable exchange rates or if they continue to hold a high level of IR and maintain greater exchange rate stability during the crisis period. Lastly, we find that developing countries are often found to have decreased the level of monetary independence and financial openness, but increased the level of exchange rate stability in the aftermath of a crisis, especially for the last two decades. This finding indicates how vulnerable developing countries, especially emerging market ones, are to volatile capital flows as a result of global financial liberalization. |
| Keywords: | economic crisis, financial crisis, trilemma, financial openess, exchange rate stability |
| JEL: | F15 F21 F31 F36 F41 O24 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:2249&r=sea |