nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2010‒07‒17
fifteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Intergenerational Cohabitation in Modern Indonesia: Filial Support and Dependence By Meliyanni Johar; Shiko Maruyama
  2. Critical Evaluation of Cross-Border Infrastructure Projects in Asia By Fujimura, Manabu; Adhikari, Ramesh
  3. Income Convergence Hypothesis: A Regional Comparison of selected East and South Asian Economies By Haider, Adnan; Hameed, Shahzad; Wajid, Abdul
  4. The relationship between corruption and public investment at the municipalities’ level in Indonesia By Dartanto, Teguh
  5. Dividend Yield and Stock Return in Different Economic Environment: Evidence from Malaysia By Safari, Meysam
  6. Population Management should be mainstreamed in the Philippine Development Agenda By Mapa, Dennis S.; Balisacan, Arsenio M.; Corpuz , Jose Rowell T.
  7. The determinants of cross-border bank flows to emerging markets: new empirical evidence on the spread of financial crises By Sabine Herrmann; Dubravko Mihaljek
  8. Exchange Rate Misalignments: Historical Experience of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan Compared to China Today By Duo Qin; Xinhua He; Yimeng Liu
  9. Factors Explaining Crop Price Developments - Time-Series Evidence for Developing and Developed Countries By Raabe, Katharina
  10. The Minimum Wage in a Deflationary Economy:The Japanese Experience, 1994-2003 By Ryo Kambayashi; Daiji Kawaguchi; Ken Yamada
  11. Advertising Competition in Retail Markets By Kyle Bagwell; Gea M. Lee
  12. Effects of Labor Taxes on Hours of Market and Home Work: The Role of International Capital Mobility and Trade By Hian Teck Hoon
  13. On Domains That Admit Well-behaved Strategy-proof Social Choice Functions By Shurojit Chatterji; Remzi Sanver; Arunava Sen
  14. Betting in the Shadow of Match-Fixing By Parimal Kanti Bag; Bibhas Saha
  15. Advertising Collusion in Retail Markets By Kyle Bagwell; Gea M. Lee

  1. By: Meliyanni Johar (University of Technology Sydney); Shiko Maruyama (School of Economics, The University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: Intergenerational cohabitation is becoming less common in modern societies. The opportunity costs of caring for parents are increasing, and the notion of filial piety is weakening. Meanwhile, in most developing Asian countries, a public old-age support system has yet to be developed. This paper delineates the positions of parents and children in the family decision of living arrangements, which have important policy implications on the reliability of filial support as a form of old-age security. We use panel data from Indonesia to study factors that initiate cohabitation by elderly parents and their adult children. Transition analysis provides a clearer interpretation of causality than cross-sectional analysis. We find that while cohabitation is motivated by parental needs, especially those of mothers, the family decision is influenced to a larger extent by the private gains and costs of the children. Cohabitation tends to occur when the child is unmarried or has a low level of education. However, parents who cohabitate tend to be healthy and wealthy, and they also generally live with a spouse. We also find that elderly parents who are poor and recent migrants are most at risk of not receiving filial support. The development of public support programs would result in potential welfare gains, particularly for those vulnerable to not receiving filial support.
    Keywords: informal care; living arrangements; intergenerational transfer; cohabitation; Indonesia; finite mixture logit
    JEL: C25 D1
    Date: 2010–04
  2. By: Fujimura, Manabu (Asian Development Bank Institute); Adhikari, Ramesh (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper attempts to fill gaps faced by policymakers and practitioners in the evaluation of cross-border infrastructure projects. It first defines what constitutes cross-border infrastructure projects, and then outlines an analytical framework and criteria to evaluate them. The criteria identify additionalities and externalities specific to cross-border infrastructure projects that need to be stressed in covering broader and indirect impacts that are not usually captured in the analysis of national projects. Then the paper examines to what extent the defined criteria are applicable in evaluating recent cross-border infrastructure projects. It also reports on emerging impacts patterns evidenced in relevant studies. The paper draws lessons and implications for design and implementation of cross-border infrastructure projects.
    Keywords: asian infrastructure projects design implementation; asian trade costs; economic analysis infrastructure projects
    JEL: H41 O22
    Date: 2010–07–06
  3. By: Haider, Adnan; Hameed, Shahzad; Wajid, Abdul
    Abstract: The empirical literature on income convergence hypothesis is available for almost all developed or industrialized countries. However, regarding developing economies especially, South Asian region few studies attempted it in their convergence related empirical analysis. Therefore, the central objective of this paper is to empirically examine whether or not income convergence is occurring over time in South Asian economies. Furthermore, within Asian block, the study also compares the convergence results of South Asian economies with its parallel East Asian region. The empirical analysis test both absolute convergence hypothesis (using beta and sigma convergence methodologies as well as Theil’s inequality based approach) and conditional convergence hypothesis (by taking care of relevant control variables). These convergence tests are based on conventional regression equation approach by taking real GDP per capita with some explanatory control variables. Both steps employ the pooled cross-section, time series data set, which provides new insights in the convergence tests for real GDP per capita. Although, empirical analysis of this paper is unable to finds any evidence to accept the null hypothesis of the presence of absolute income convergence. However, our results show the presence of conditional income convergence for both East and South Asian economies. It indicates that income gap between these two groups of economies has narrow down conditional based on some common characteristics but it still remains quite large.
    Keywords: absolute convergence; conditional convergence; Asian economies; growth theory
    JEL: O53 C23 O40 F43
    Date: 2010–06–05
  4. By: Dartanto, Teguh
    Abstract: This research is conducted to quantitatively measure the relationship between corruption and public investment at municipalities’ level in Indonesia. According to Nash Equilibrium derived from mixed strategies, the relationship between corruption and public investment can be both positive and negative depending on the level of the corruption Index. Moreover, the econometric estimations from cross section data and pooled data consistently confirm that the relationship between corruption and public investment is in non linear quadratic form. It was found that the public investment reaches the lowest level when the corruption index ranges from 4.42-4.64.
    Keywords: Corruption; Public Investment; Game Theory; Regional Development
    JEL: H0 R11 C72
    Date: 2010–03
  5. By: Safari, Meysam
    Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between dividend yields and stock returns in bull and bear markets. Evidences from developed countries show that there should be a positive correlation between dividend yields and stock return in bear markets and a negative correlation between dividend yields and stock return during the bull markets. Findings of this study, in emerging market content, show that there is a positive relation between dividend yield and stock returns in both bull and bear markets which are not consistent with previous works.
    Keywords: Dividend Yield; Stock Return; Economic Environment; Bull/Bear Market; Malaysia
    JEL: D53 E32 G35 C23 E44
    Date: 2009–11–01
  6. By: Mapa, Dennis S.; Balisacan, Arsenio M.; Corpuz , Jose Rowell T.
    Abstract: The performance of the Philippine economy has been hindered by the country’s bourgeoning population due to its rapid population growth. For the last decade, the Philippines had the highest annual population growth rates in the Southeast Asian region. In 2009, it has become the second most populous country in the region with a population of more than 92 million, next only to Indonesia. Unfortunately, these have resulted to forgone economic growth, losing the chance to improve the poverty situation in the country. Thus, it is imperative to speed up the demographic transition in the country through proactive government population management policies aimed at harvesting the demographic dividends quickly. By performing simulation analyses on total fertility rate (TFR) under two scenarios, it was shown that the Philippines can hardly experience in the near future the Goldilock period, or the generation when fertility rate is neither too high nor too low, especially when the government does nothing to address the problem. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the Goldilock period will be reached by year 2030, or twenty years from now. In the second scenario where the government intervention targets only the households with unwanted fertility, the Goldilock period will be achieved ten years earlier, or in about 2020.
    Keywords: Demographic Transition; Goldilock Period; Fertility Rate
    JEL: J13 J1 J11
    Date: 2010–05
  7. By: Sabine Herrmann; Dubravko Mihaljek
    Abstract: This paper studies the nature of spillover effects in bank lending flows from advanced to the emerging market economies and identifies specific channels through which such effects occur. Based on a gravity model we examine a panel data set on cross-border bank flows from 17 advanced to 28 emerging market economies in Asia, Latin America and central and eastern Europe from 1993 to 2008. The empirical analysis suggests that global as well as country specific factors are significant determinants of cross-border bank flows. Greater global risk aversion and expected financial market volatility seem to have been the most important factors behind the decrease in cross-border bank flows during the crisis of 2007-08. The decrease in cross-border loans to central and eastern Europe was more limited compared to Asia and Latin America, in large measure because of the higher degree of financial and monetary integration in Europe, and relatively sound banking systems in the region. These results are robust to various specification, sub-samples and econometric methodologies.
    Keywords: gravity model, cross-border bank flows, financial crises, emerging market economies, spillover effects, panel data
    Date: 2010–07
  8. By: Duo Qin (Queen Mary, University of London); Xinhua He (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences); Yimeng Liu (Beijing Normal University)
    Abstract: This is a comparative study on the historical experience of real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment of Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, Singapore dollar and Taiwan dollar, with regard to the recent dispute over the Renminbi (RMB) valuation. Panel-based misalignment estimates of the four economies show that net foreign asset build-up does not necessarily result in currency misalignment, and the recent misalignment of RMB is not unprecedented in terms of magnitude, duration or currency coverage, whereas volatility in REER misalignment is likely to propagate to inflation of the home economy concerned. The assertion of 'RMB rate manipulation' thus lacks empirical support.
    Keywords: REER misalignment, RMB, Yen, D-mark, Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar
    JEL: F31 F41 O57 C23
    Date: 2010–07
  9. By: Raabe, Katharina
    Abstract: The global hunger indices of 2008 and 2009 (Grebmer et al. 2008, 2009) point to persistently high levels of hunger and food insecurity and a worsening of the situation due to rising crop prices. At the same time, there is a lack of empirical knowledge on the demand- and supply-side determinants of crop prices. Given this situation, this paper estimates structural equation models by means of the three-stage least-squares estimator to identify the sensitivity of the price of three major crops (wheat, maize, and rice) in up to eight countries (India, China, Egypt, Thailand, Ecuador, Uruguay, the United States, and Australia) to global and country-specific crop demand and supply conditions. The evidence suggests that conclusions regarding the determinants of crop prices critically depend on the choice of crop and country. The nonexistence of a consistent and homogenous set of price determinants suggests that the stability and predictability of crop prices depends on country-specific domestic policies that target both the crop demand and supply side. The evidence also suggests that supply-side initiatives are likely to be more effective to this end.
    Keywords: Agriculture, food prices, crop prices, simultaneous equations, three-stage least-squares
    JEL: C32 Q11 Q19
    Date: 2010–07
  10. By: Ryo Kambayashi (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University); Daiji Kawaguchi (Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University); Ken Yamada (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: The statutory minimum wage has steadily increased for decades in Japan, while the median wage has fallen nominally since 1999 because of a severe recession. We use large micro-data sets from two government surveys to investigate how the minimum wage has affected the wage distribution under unusual circumstances of deflation. The compression of the lower tail of the female wage distribution is largely explained by an increased real value of the minimum wage. Steady increases in the effective minimum wage reduced employment among low-skilled, middle-aged female workers, but the mechanical effect associated with disemployment on wage compression was minimal.
    Keywords: Minimum Wage, Wage Distribution, Wage Inequality, Employment, Deflation
    JEL: J23 J31 J38
    Date: 2010–04
  11. By: Kyle Bagwell (Stanford University); Gea M. Lee (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: We consider non-price advertising by retail firms that are privately informed as to their respective production costs. We construct an advertising equilibrium, in which informed consumers use an advertising search rule whereby they buy from the highest-advertising firm. Consumers are rational in using the advertising search rule, since the lowest-cost firm advertises the most and also selects the lowest price. Even though the advertising equilibrium facilitates productive efficiency, we establish conditions under which firms enjoy higher expected profit when advertising is banned. Consumer welfare falls in this case, however. Under free entry, social surplus is higher when advertising is allowed. In addition, we consider a benchmark model of price competition; we provide comparative-statics results with respect to the number of informed consumers, the number of firms and the distribution of costs; and we consider the possibility of sequential search.
    Date: 2009–12
  12. By: Hian Teck Hoon (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the Prescott (2004) hypothesis that permanently higher payroll taxes fully explain the decline in number of market hours worked in Europe (relative to America) over three decades. The Prescott model made assumptions that, in steady state, left out any incentive for either international capital mobility or international exchange of goods. We study a one-good model where the imposition of higher payroll taxes in one region leads to higher domestic real interest rate in that region. As a result, there are incentives for international capital outflows into the high payroll tax region with the consequence that number of market hours worked in the low payroll tax region also decline. With identical tastes and rate of time discount across the two regions, we find that the number of hours worked in the market, home work, and leisure are equalized across the two regions. In the multi-good model, when factor price equalization holds so free trade acts as a substitute for factor mobility, we show that there is also equalization of market work, home work, and leisure across the two regions.
    Keywords: Payroll taxes, wealth decumulation, capital mobility
    JEL: E13 E22 E24 F11 F16 F21 H20
    Date: 2009–12
  13. By: Shurojit Chatterji (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Remzi Sanver (Department of Economics, Istanbul Bilgi University); Arunava Sen (Indian Statistical Institute)
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate domains which admit "well-behaved", strategy-proof social choice functions. We show that if the number of voters is even, then every domain that satisfies a richness condition and admits an anonymous, tops-only, unanimous and strategy-proof social choice function, must be semi-single-peaked. Conversely every semi-single-peaked domain admits an anonymous, tops-only, unanimous and strategy-proof social choice function. Semi-single-peaked domains are generalizations of single-peaked domains on a tree introduced by Demange (1982). We provide sharper versions of the results above when tops-onlyness is replaced by tops-selectivity and the richness condition is weakened.
    Keywords: Voting-rules, Strategy-proofness, Restricted Domains, Tops-Only domains.
    JEL: D71
    Date: 2010–05
  14. By: Parimal Kanti Bag (National University of Singapore); Bibhas Saha (School of Economics, University of East Anglia)
    Abstract: Two bookmakers compete in Bertrand fashion while setting odds on the outcomes of a sporting contest where an influential punter (or betting syndicate) may bribe some player(s) to fix the contest. Zero profit and bribe prevention may not always hold together. When the influential punter is quite powerful, the bookies may coordinate on prices and earn positive profits for fear of letting the `lemons' (i.e., the influential punter) in. On the other hand, sometimes the bookies make zero profits but also admit match-fixing. When match-fixing occurs, it often involves bribery of only the strong team. The theoretical analysis is intended to address the problem of growing incidence of betting related corruption in world sports including cricket, horse races, tennis, soccer, basketball, wrestling, snooker, etc.
    Keywords: Sports betting, bookie, punters, corruption, match-fixing, lemons problem
    JEL: D42 K42
    Date: 2010–07–05
  15. By: Kyle Bagwell (Stanford University); Gea M. Lee (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: We analyze non-price advertising by retail firms, when the firms are privately informed about their respective costs of production. In a static advertising game, an advertising equilibrium exists in which lower-cost firms select higher advertising levels. In this equilibrium, informed consumers rationally employ an advertising search rule in which they buy from the highest- advertising firm, since lower-cost firms also select lower prices. In a repeated advertising game, colluding fims face a tradeoff: the use of advertising can promote productive efficiency but only if sufficient current or future advertising expenses are incurred. At one extreme, if firms pool at zero advertising, they sacrifice productive efficiency but also eliminate current and future advertising expenses. Focusing on symmetric perfect public equilibria for the repeated advertising game, we establish conditions under which optimal collusion entails pooling at zero advertising. More generally, full or partial pooling is observed in optimal collusion. Such collusive agreements reduce consumer welfare, since they restrict informed consumers' ability to locate the lowest available price in the market.
    Date: 2009–12

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