nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2010‒01‒16
23 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Firm- and Plant-level Analysis of Multinationals in Southeast Asia: the Perils of Pooling Industries and Balancing Panels By Eric Ramstetter
  2. Inflation Targeting Framework: Is the story different for Asian Economies? By Naqvi, Bushra; Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas
  3. The Nature and Characteristics of Production Networks in East Asia: Evidences from Micro/Panel Data Analyses By Fukunari Kimura
  4. An Empirical Study on Exchange Rate Volatility and it Impacts on Bilateral Export Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh By Md Shoaib Ahmed, Shoaib
  5. Inflation Volatility: An Asian Perspective By Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas; Naqvi, Bushra
  6. Cointegration relationship and time varying co-movements among Indian and Asian developed stock markets By Guidi, Francesco
  7. Women's Empowerment in South Asia and Southeast Asia: A Comparative Analysis By Chaudhuri, Sanjukta
  8. Impacts of prenatal and environmental factors on child growth: Evidence from Indonesia By Yamauchi, Futoshi; Higuchi, Katsuhiko; Suhaeti, Rita Nur
  9. Supply and Demand Model for the Malaysian Cocoa Market By Abdel Hamed, Amna Awad; Hasanov, Akram; Idris, Nurjihan; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir
  10. In the Midst of Global Financial Slowdown: the Indonesian Experience By Siregar, Reza; Wiranto, Willeam
  11. An Analysis of the Institutional Framework of the Commercial Vehicle Rebuilt Industry in Malaysia By Jaafar, Harlina Suzana; Nasir, Nazri; Mohd-Ali, Rosena; Aluwi, Ainie Hairianie; Rahmat, Abdul Khabir
  12. Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Evidence from an Emerging Stock Market By Tho Dinh NGUYEN
  13. Education inequality, economic growth, and income inequality: Evidence from Indonesia, 1996-2005 By Digdowiseiso, Kumba
  14. Construct validation of supply chain management in cooperative By Idris, Nurjihan; Arshad, Fatimah Mohamed; Radam, Alias; Ali, Noor Azman
  15. Malaysian Cocoa Market Modeling: A Combination of Econometric and System Dynamics Approach By Applanaidu, Shri Dewi; Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah; Abdel Hameed, Amna Awad; Hasanov, Akram; Idris, Nurjihan; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir
  16. A Structural Investigation into the Price and Wage Dynamics in Hong Kong By Michael Cheng; Wai-Yip Alex Ho
  17. REDD in Design: Assessment of Planned First-Generation Activities in Indonesia By Myers Madeira, Erin
  18. Microcredit using Equity Financing: an Alternate Approach to Equity Financing in an Interest Free Financing By Shaikh, Salman
  19. Modelling and forecasting volatility of East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries and Japan stock markets with non-linear models By Guidi, Francesco
  20. Risk-Factor Portfolios and Financial Stability By Garita, Gus
  21. Endogenous Institutional Change and Economic Development: A Micro-Level Analysis of Transmission Channels By Michael Grimm; Stephan Klasen
  22. The Effect of Farm Labor Organization on IPM Adoption. Empirical Evidence from Thailand By Beckmann, Volker; Irawan, Evi; Wesseler, Justus
  23. LAD Asymptotics under Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Possibly Infinite Error Densities By Jin Seo Cho; Chirok-Han; Peter C. B. Phillips

  1. By: Eric Ramstetter
    Abstract: This paper uses micro data and published compilations of micro data to estimate shares of multinational corporations (MNCs) in Southeast Asian manufacturing. It first shows that MNC shares tended to be largest in Singapore, intermediate in Malaysia and (recently) in Vietnam, and lowest in Thailand and Indonesia. Shares tended to decline in Singapore and Thailand, were relatively constant in Malaysia, and increased in Indonesia and Vietnam. Shares of majority foreign MNCs also increased conspicuously in Indonesia and Thailand as MNCs bought out local partners in joint ventures after the Asian crisis. Second, it highlights how MNC shares were always lowest in terms of the number of plants or establishments, or in other words, how MNCs tended to be larger on average than local firms or plants. MNCs also tended to account for larger shares of production than employment, and even larger shares of exports. Hence MNCs tended to have relatively high labor productivity and export propensities. Because these simple comparisons do not account for other influences on productivity, wages, or exporting, for example, the paper also describes how micro-data have been used to analyze productivity, wages, and export propensities. This literature suggests that productivity differentials were generally positive but often statistically insignificant, especially at the industry level. Wage differentials were also positive and more often significant, but the largest and most consistent differentials are observed in export propensities. Third, the paper also reviewed literature suggesting positive productivity and wage spillovers in Indonesia, Thailand, and to some extent Vietnam. However, such analyses need to be treated with caution because unwarranted pooling across manufacturing industries is common and has the well-known potential to bias estimates. In addition, the paper emphasized that balanced panels can create important sampling biases because of large turnover that is particularly conspicuous among small non-MNCs in this dynamic region.
    Keywords: micro data, manufacturing, Southeast Asia, multinational corporations
    JEL: C81 D21 F23 L60 O14 O53
    Date: 2009–12
  2. By: Naqvi, Bushra; Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas
    Abstract: This paper aims to measure and compare the economic performance of four Asian economies who adopted Inflation Targeting (Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea and Thailand) against their six neighboring Asian non-targeting economies (China, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Singapore and Pakistan). Using the methodology of Ball and Sheridan, firstly, behavior of inflation, output growth and short term interest rate has been measured for both groups (Targeters vs. Non-Targeters) in pre and post IT adoption period in order to see whether performance has improved in targeting countries after the adoption of IT. Secondly, we try to find out whether Inflation Targeting has played any significant role in the changed behavior of these variables. Thirdly, we measure the effect of output gap and supply shock on inflation and see whether economic structure of these countries has changed between pre and post targeting period; and then we measure the role of IT in the structural change of these economies if there is any. The results force us to believe that economic performance has improved in all Asian economies in post targeting period. However, IT does not seem to play any significant role in this improvement of targeting countries. In addition to this, we find strong evidence that all variables showed strong reversion to mean suggesting that improved performance of variables today is in fact the outcome of poor economic performance in the past.
    Keywords: Inflation Targeting; Asian countries; Output gap; Targeters vs Non Targeters; Economic Performance
    JEL: E30 E31 E58 E52
    Date: 2009–06–01
  3. By: Fukunari Kimura
    Abstract: Production networks in East Asia, particularly being extended by machinery industries, have presented unprecedented development with their significance in economies in the region, their geographical extension, and their sophistication in combining intra-firm and arm's length transactions. In particular, the fragmentation of production activities together with the formation of industrial agglomerations in developing countries is a novel phenomenon that would lead to an East Asian model of economic development. Starting from a brief review of our conceptual framework based on the fragmentation theory as well as an empirical overview with international trade statistics and others, the paper presents a survey on empirical evidences that have been established by previous micro-data analyses in East Asia and discusses a list of empirical issues that future studies should explore. Topics include (i) the selection of exporters and investors, (ii) organizational structure and spatial design of production networks, (iii) location choice, (iv) impacts of outward FDI on developed countries, and (v) learning and impacts of inward FDI on LDCs.
    Date: 2009–12
  4. By: Md Shoaib Ahmed, Shoaib
    Abstract: This is an empirically study to investigate the exchange rate volatility and it impacts on bilateral exports growth: evidence from Bangladesh. The countries are considered to determine based on the bilateral relationship between Bangladesh and the other countries under a range of regional economic blocks such as North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, SAARC, ASEAN, and Asia-Pacific regions. To establish the empirical relationship between exchange rate volatility and impact on exports growth, cointegration and error correction techniques are used by considering the data from 2003 to 2008. From the investigation, the result shows that the exchange rate volatility has a negative and major effect both in short run and long run with important trading partners, which are Western European and North American countries. Similar pattern was also experienced in case of few countries such as Singapore, Japan, Malaysia and China where the volume of trade with Bangladesh is comparatively consistent and less volatile. The relationship between exchange rate volatility and growth of export for India and Pakistan is observed only in long run perspective. However, there is no empirical relationship being observed of exchange rate volatility and it impacts on export growth between Bangladesh and Iran and other s Gulf countries.
    Keywords: Cointegration, Exchange Rate, Volatility, Export growth, Regional integration and Gulf.
    JEL: C22 D51 C01
    Date: 2009–01
  5. By: Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas; Naqvi, Bushra
    Abstract: The primary purpose of this study is to model and analyze inflation volatility in ten selected Asian economies. We used quarterly data of inflation from 1987Q1 to 2008Q4 to model inflation volatility as time varying process through different symmetric and asymmetric GARCH specifications. We also proposed to model inflation volatility on the basis of cyclic component of inflation obtained from HP filter, instead of actual inflation when the latter does not fulfill the criterion of stationarity. Through news impact curves we tried to highlight the behavior of inflation volatility in response to lagged inflation shocks, under different GARCH specifications for selected economies. Bivariate granger causality test is also applied to analyze the direction of causality between inflation and different volatility estimates. We get few important results. At first, leverage parameter shows expected sign and is significant for almost all countries suggesting strong asymmetry in inflation volatility. The hyperbolic sign integral shape of news impact curves based on GJR-GARCH is not only consistent with the results of our previous study based on Pakistani data (Rizvi and Naqvi, 2008) but also highlight the importance of inflation stabilization programs particularly because of the subsequent evidences obtained in favor of bidirectional causality running between inflation and inflation volatility. We also found that cyclic component of inflation could be a suitable proxy of inflation for volatility estimation.
    Keywords: Inflation Volatility, Uncertainty, GJR-GARCH, EGARCH, Asymmetry, Asia, Asian
    JEL: E31 C22 E37
    Date: 2009–08–01
  6. By: Guidi, Francesco
    Abstract: This paper aims to explore links between the Indian stock market and three developed Asian markets (i.e. Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore). The index prices are non-stationary so we used cointegration methodologies in order to explore interdependencies. Johansen methodologies reject the hypothesis of long-run relationships among all stock markets, while the Gregory-Hansen test rejects the hypothesis of no cointegration with structural breaks. Our results suggest that in the long-term the benefits for investing in India are limited. We further estimated the time-varying conditional correlation relationships among these markets We find that correlations rise dramatically during periods of crisis, while they return to their initial levels after those periods.
    Keywords: Stock markets; cointegration; time-varying correlations.
    JEL: C32 G15
    Date: 2010–01
  7. By: Chaudhuri, Sanjukta
    Abstract: This paper uses multivariate regression analysis to explore the time and birth cohort trends of women’s empowerment in eight countries of South Asia and South East Asia. The measures of women’s empowerment are: economic participation, educational attainment, wage work, fertility, female to male sex ratio of living children, and the ideal female to male sex ratio. The data (1990s and 2000s) are from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS.) Comparison of estimated cohort lines demonstrate that Philippines and Vietnam, both in South East Asia, have the highest education level, highest rates of economic participation, and the lowest fertility rates. Cambodia has the highest female to male ratio. Pakistan and Nepal have lowest education; Pakistan and Bangladesh have the lowest economic participation rates and highest fertility rates; India has the lowest sex ratio. In surveying country specific literature to confirm these estimates, I conclude (1) social and religious norms hinder women’s empowerment in both regions. (2) Progress in women’s empowerment has been achieved through feminist movements (the Philippines), government programs (the Doi Moi program of Vietnam) and Non Government Organization efforts (Grameen Bank of Bangladesh) (3) Much of the progress has been achieved with meager access to resources. (4) More empowerment could be the consequence of political turmoil, (Cambodia) and not necessarily economic development or cultural shifts.
    Keywords: female empowerment; education; labor force participation; fertility; South Asia; Southeast Asia
    JEL: N35 J16
    Date: 2010–01–01
  8. By: Yamauchi, Futoshi; Higuchi, Katsuhiko; Suhaeti, Rita Nur
    Keywords: Seasonality, Birth-weight, Drinking water, Child growth, Social protection,
    Date: 2009
  9. By: Abdel Hamed, Amna Awad; Hasanov, Akram; Idris, Nurjihan; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir
    Abstract: This paper investigates a system of supply, demand, and price equations for Malaysian cocoa using annual data over the period 1975-2008. Theoretically, in supply and demand models, the price variable is treated as endogenous. However, Hausman specification test result indicates that there is no simultaneity problem in the model. Thus, we estimate the system of equations utilizing the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation technique which might be considered a more efficient estimator for supply and demand model of the Malaysian cocoa. The results suggest that the Malaysian cocoa production is mainly affected by the previous year production, price of cocoa beans at lag two as well as the harvested area. In the export demand equation, the real effective exchange rates is statistically significant determinant while the index of industrial production of advanced economies and the world price of cocoa are found to be insignificant. The results also suggest that both Malaysian industrial production index and domestic price of cocoa beans are key determinants of domestic demand for cocoa beans in Malaysia. Finally, the domestic price of cocoa beans is highly sensitive to its domestic consumption, lagged domestic price, and its world price.
    Keywords: Supply and Demand; Malaysian Cocoa; SUR technique
    JEL: Q11 O13
    Date: 2009–10–26
  10. By: Siregar, Reza; Wiranto, Willeam
    Abstract: The objective of our study is to review and debate selected factors frequently underlined as the foundations to the strength and the resilient of economic growth in Indonesia in recent years. We first examine closely the compositions of the country’s exports to particularly highlight the role of primary commodities and diverse export destinations in cushioning the country’s balance of payment position. Next, our study assesses the country’s management of macroeconomic policies, especially the monetary and fiscal policies, and debates the overall effectiveness and limitations of these policy measures. Lastly, this paper explores the repentant stage of the country’s infrastructure, arguably a vital factor for the country’s ability to attract the much-needed domestic and foreign direct investment.
    Keywords: Global Financial Crisis; Indonesia; Balance of Payment; Macroeconomic Policies; and Infrastructure.
    JEL: F01 E60
    Date: 2009–12–15
  11. By: Jaafar, Harlina Suzana; Nasir, Nazri; Mohd-Ali, Rosena; Aluwi, Ainie Hairianie; Rahmat, Abdul Khabir
    Abstract: Rebuilt industry, also known as remanufacturing, is the practice of taking end-of-life goods and reengineering them back to as new or better condition. In Malaysia, one of significant remanufacturing activities is the automotive remanufacturing or rebuilt commercial vehicle industry. The industry has begun since 1970s, the time when the construction sector was booming. Despite of its importance in bringing to a sustainable development of a country, no studies have been conducted on the effectiveness of the practice in Malaysia. However, the recent problematic issue surrounding the industry has led to the call for this research. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of the institutional framework of the commercial vehicle rebuilt industry in Malaysia. The results obtained were based on seventeen interviews. All interviews were transcribed and the data were analysed using the content analysis method. The results demonstrated that with the present practice of the institutional framework allows some loopholes within the industry. These loopholes have led to the production of false document and thus excessive number of rebuilt commercial vehicles registered, far greater than the quota given by the Ministry. This issue arose due to unavailability of effective communication mechanisms among the relevant government authorities. This study provides insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the present governance in dealing with the rebuilt commercial vehicle industry in Malaysia. It is important as it opens up various issues that have been lingering within the implementation of the industry.
    Keywords: rebuilt industry; automotive remanufacturing; interviews; governance
    JEL: L92 Q53 O14
    Date: 2009–03–14
  12. By: Tho Dinh NGUYEN (Faculty of Banking and Finance, Foreign Trade University, Vietnam)
    Abstract: <p>This paper examines the stock price behaviour of an emerging stock market, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), by applying a new equilibrium stock price theory formulated by Ross (1976). The theory postulates stock market risks and returns are determined by fundamentals under a linear relationship established on the basis of a homogeneous multi-factor model return generating process and the assumptions of perfectly competitive and frictionless markets.</p> <p>Employing the data for the period before the Asian Financial Crisis 1997-1998, between Jan 1987 and Dec 1996 under the light of the methodology proposed by Fama and McBeth (1973), the research investigates the relationship between the stock returns in the Stock Exchange of Thailand and some economic fundamentals, namely returns on the SET-Index, changes in exchange rates, industrial production growth rates, unexpected changes in inflation, changes in the current account balance, differences between domestic interest rates and international interest rates, changes in domestic interest rate.</p><p>The test's results show that, within the scope of the methodology and data employed, the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) does hold in the very emerging stock market of Thailand, while the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) fails to do so. While changes in exchange rates consistently explain the stock returns, there is one chance the exchange rates and the industrial growth rates together systematically affect the stock returns. The negative risk premiums associated with these factors shows investors in the SET are risk averse and tend to hedge against risks of changes in fundamentals.</p>
    Date: 2010
  13. By: Digdowiseiso, Kumba
    Abstract: Abstract This paper examines the determinants of economic growth, income inequality, and their relationship in the context of education inequality. The econometric results from a cross-section analysis of 23 provinces in the period of 1996-2005 indicate that a higher level of human capital and the relative dispersion of human capital have a disequalizing effect on the income distribution. It also confirms that economic growth has strongly and significantly equalizing effect on the income distribution, supporting the complementarity relationship between equity and growth. In addition, human capital investment contributes significantly to the growth of economy. Therefore, in a bid to achieve egalitarian society with a more equitable distribution of income, economic policies should be more targeted at not only more education but also equal access to education.
    Keywords: Education; Growth; Inequality; and Indonesia
    JEL: I30 I21 O40
    Date: 2009–12–20
  14. By: Idris, Nurjihan; Arshad, Fatimah Mohamed; Radam, Alias; Ali, Noor Azman
    Abstract: This study attempts to analyze construct in supply chain and to determine which construct contribute to performance of agricultural cooperatives in Malaysia. The primary data is collected via questionnaire from top level management of agricultural cooperatives using 5-item Likert scale. Factor analysis and structural equations modeling were used to analyze the data. Findings show that cooperatives places importance on quality and technology, logistic, supplier and governance. As a whole, supply chain is significance in determining performance. However, governance alone is not significant in determining performance. The empirical result could be used to improve further studies in supply chain management.
    Keywords: Agricultural cooperatives; supply chain management model
    JEL: O1 L2 M1 L1
    Date: 2009–12–03
  15. By: Applanaidu, Shri Dewi; Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah; Abdel Hameed, Amna Awad; Hasanov, Akram; Idris, Nurjihan; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir
    Abstract: The Malaysian cocoa sector has undergone dramatic changes during the last few decades. In the early years of 1970s, this sector has maintained an upward trend in the area and consequently the production. However, the trend reversed in the late 1980s due to factors such as declining world prices, higher labour costs, widespread of cocoa pod diseases and the pull of more lucrative crops (in particular palm oil). By 2008 only about 19,976 hectares were planted with cocoa compared to a peak of 414,236 ha in 1989. Production of cocoa beans has trended down accordingly. The study combines the econometric and system dynamics approach in modeling the Malaysian cocoa market. A first order system was developed to capture the interdependencies of the major structural elements of the markets such as production, local and export demands, inventory and imports. Nevertheless, the model provides an understanding of the interrelationships between the system components and allows the simulation of policy variables changes. Future work will involve a detail examination of the interaction cocoa supply chain system (from farm to export) to provide a much more comprehensive representations of the dynamics of the market.
    Keywords: Econometric methods; system dynamics; Malaysian cocoa market
    JEL: C10 O13
    Date: 2009–10–26
  16. By: Michael Cheng (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Wai-Yip Alex Ho (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the degree of wage and price flexibility of the Hong Kong economy with the use of a stylised dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed for the Hong Kong economy. It also studies the factors contributing to deflation in Hong Kong following the Asian financial crisis (i.e. during the period from 1998 to 2003) and finds that declining import prices were the main culprit. Consistent with earlier studies on the subject and anecdotal evidence, wages and prices in Hong Kong are found to be (relatively) flexible.
    Keywords: DSGE, Bayesian Estimation, Nominal Rigidities
    JEL: F30 G15 G12
    Date: 2009–12
  17. By: Myers Madeira, Erin (Resources for the Future)
    Abstract: Much of the guidance about potential impacts of reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) speculates how efforts would be implemented and draws lessons from other mechanisms, such as payments for ecosystem services (PES). However, with few REDD activities underway, little evidence indicates whether REDD projects are meeting these expectations. This article examines 17 REDD interventions under development in Indonesia, reports trends in project design, and assesses the extent to which interventions follow the model of pro-poor PES schemes. I find that a dominant type of REDD intervention follows a concession model and seeks to prevent large-scale conversion to plantations by outside actors. Although these projects fit the definition of PES at the scale at which the environmental service is transacted, PES characteristics are not a primary component of on-the-ground implementation. Small-holder actors are recognized as essential to the long-term success of the intervention, but are not the main focus.
    Keywords: climate, climate change, REDD, carbon, forests, deforestation, degradation, emissions, mitigation, forest carbon, Indonesia, Kalimantan, Borneo, avoided deforestation, UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, PES, concession
    JEL: Q23 Q28 Q27 Q54 Q56 Q57 Q58 Q01
    Date: 2009–12–03
  18. By: Shaikh, Salman
    Abstract: Interest is prohibited in all monotheist religions; however, it features as an essential element in practiced capitalism. Interest based financial system has created two major havocs in last two decades i.e. in East Asia in 90s and in the Great Recession since 2007. This paper highlights the extent of development problems faced by the world. With interest at zero bound in U.S since 2008 and with unemployment at 11% level, scarcity of capital cannot solely explain this. However, interest based Microfinance has had mixed results. Interest based lending at Micro level is usually carried out at very high interest rates, more so when the lending takes place informally without institutional intermediation. Institutional intermediation serves a good purpose, but it can also be designed using equity modes of financing. This can relieve the financee and increase diversity of entrepreneurial activities as in debt based microfinance, not much diversity can happen with compulsory servicing of debt. The related questions as to how the institutional arrangement would work to carry out this system, how documentation problems be resolved, how trust level can be created, how effective monitoring can be undertaken and how the intermediaries generate finance themselves and mobilize funds are answered in this paper.
    Keywords: nterest free economy; Public finance; Taxation; Inequality; Income redistribution; Islamic Economic System; fiscal policy; deficit financing.
    JEL: L38 I31 O10
    Date: 2010–01
  19. By: Guidi, Francesco
    Abstract: This paper explores the forecasting performances of several non-linear models, namely GARCH, EGARCH, APARCH used with three distributions, namely the Gaussian normal, the Student-t and Generalized Error Distribution (GED). In order to evaluate the performance of the competing models we used the standard loss functions that is the Root Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and the Theil Inequality Coefficient. Our result show that the asymmetric GARCH family models are generally the best for forecasting NICs indices. We also find that both Root Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Error forecast statistic measures tend to choose models that were estimated assuming the normal distribution, while the other two remaining forecast measures privilege models with t-student and GED distribution.
    Keywords: GARCH; Volatility forecasting; forecast evaluation.
    JEL: G15 C22
    Date: 2010–01
  20. By: Garita, Gus
    Abstract: This paper defines a risk-stability index (RSI) that takes into account the extreme dependence structure and the conditional probability of joint failure (CPJF) among risk factors in a portfolio. In combination, both the RSI and CPJF provide a valuable tool for analyzing risk from complementary perspectives; thereby allowing the measurement of (i) common distress of risk factors in a portfolio, (ii) distress between specific risk factors, and (iii) distress to a portfolio related to a specific risk factor. With an application to a financial system comprised of 18 banks from around the world, the results herein show that financial stability must be viewed as a continuum, since risk varies from period to period. The risk-stability index indicates that U.S. banks tend to cause the most stress to the global financial system (as defined herein), followed by Asian and European banks. The results also show that Asian banks seem to experience the most persistence of distress, followed by U.S. and European banks. The panel VAR results show that monetary policy should "lean against the wind", since it has a significant effect in reducing the (potential) instability of a financial system.
    Keywords: Conditional probability of joint failure; contagion; dependence structure; distress; multivariate extreme value theory; panel VAR; persistence
    JEL: F15 C10 E44 F36
    Date: 2009–12–11
  21. By: Michael Grimm (International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam); Stephan Klasen
    Abstract: There is a well-known debate about the role of institutions in explaining the long-term development of countries. We believe there is value-added to consider the institutions hypothesis at the micro level within a country to analyze the exact transmission channels linking endogenous institutional change to development outcomes. Given the central importance of agricultural productivity improvements for initiating the process of economic development, we focus on the transmission mechanisms that lead to the emergence of institutions relevant for agricultural development, thereby incorporating insights from the literatures on demographic influences of institutional change, induced innovations, as well as the central role of land rights in our analysis. Our main argument is that in conditions of relative land abundance, geographic factors influence rural-rural migration flows to geographically well-endowed regions which in turn give rise to migration-induced land scarcity. Land scarcity in turn, provides incentives to formalize landownership. Eventually, formalized land rights increase investment in land and enhance the adoption of new and better technologies promoting agricultural growth and economic development. We provide empirical evidence for this hypothesis using longitudinal village and household survey data from Indonesia.
    Keywords: Geography; migration; land titles; institutions; agricultural development; Indonesia
    JEL: K11 O12 Q12
    Date: 2009–09–22
  22. By: Beckmann, Volker; Irawan, Evi; Wesseler, Justus
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of labor organization on integrated pest management (IPM), using cross section data collected from a participatory farming system survey of 157 durian growers in Chanthaburi, Thailand, in 2005. In contrast to many studies of IPM adoption, this work uses the form of farm labor organization as an endogenous factor for identifying the rate of IPM adoption among durian growers. The instrumental variables method was employed to econometrically relate a set of alleged variables as instruments of labor organization to the rate of IPM adoption. Results show that, among others, farms employing hired labor have a significantly lower adoption rate of IPM.
    Keywords: Labor Organization, IPM Adoption, 2SLS, Farm Labor, Agricultural Extension, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Political Economy, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q16, J2, J43,
    Date: 2009–12–16
  23. By: Jin Seo Cho (Korea University); Chirok-Han (Korea University); Peter C. B. Phillips (Yale University, University of Auckland, University of Southampton & Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: Least absolute deviations (LAD) estimation of linear time-series models is considered under conditional heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. The limit theory of the LAD estimator is obtained without assuming the finite density condition for the errors that is required in standard LAD asymptotics. The results are particularly useful in application of LAD estimation to financial time-series data.
    Keywords: Asymptotic leptokurtosis, Convex function, Infinite density, Least absolute deviations, Median, Weak convergence.
    JEL: C12 G11
    Date: 2009

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