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on South East Asia |
| By: | Vu Thanh Hai (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Albert K. Tsui (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Zhaoyong Zhang (School of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Edith Cowan University) |
| Abstract: | We search for evidence of conditional volatility in the quarterly real GDP growth rates of three East Asian tigers: Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan. The widely accepted exponential GARCH-type model is used to capture the existence of asymmetric volatility and the potential structural break points in the volatility. We find evidence of asymmetry and persistence in the volatility of GDP growth rates. It is noted that the identified structural breakpoints of volatility correspond reasonably well to the historical economic and political events in these economies. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | East Asia, Real Output, GARCH, structural changes, asymmetric volatility |
| JEL: | F14 F31 P21 |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sca:scaewp:0904&r=sea |
| By: | Martin, Philip |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of international migration in the Asia-Pacific region and reviews internal migration in China. After putting Asia-Pacific migration in a global context, it reviews trends in migration and the impacts of migrants in the major migrantreceiving countries, patterns of migration and their development impacts in migrant-sending countries, the human development impacts of migration, and three policy issues, viz, new seasonal worker programs for Pacific Islanders in New Zealand and Australia, required local sponsorship of foreigners in the Gulf countries, and the economic effects of migrants in the US and Thailand. Recent trends in internal migration in China, which shares attributes of international migration because of the hukou (household registration) system, are also assessed. |
| Keywords: | International labor migration; migrant workers; guest workers; Asia |
| JEL: | O15 J0 |
| Date: | 2009–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19215&r=sea |
| By: | García López, Jorge (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Sterner, Thomas (Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.); Afsah, Shakeb (consultant in Washington, D.C.) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the Program for Pollution Control Evaluation and Rating (PROPER) in Indonesia. PROPER, the first major public disclosure program in the developing world, was launched in June 1995; though it collapsed in 1998 with the Asian financial crisis, it is currently being revived. There have been claims of success for this pioneering scheme, yet little formal analysis has been undertaken. We analyze changes in emissions concentrations (mg/L) using panel data techniques with plant-level data for participating firms and a control group. The results show that there was indeed a positive response to PROPER, especially among firms with poor environmental compliance records. The response was immediate, and firms pursued further emissions reductions in the following months. The total estimated reductions in biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) were approximately 32%.<p> |
| Keywords: | environmental policy; pollution control; public disclosure; Asia; Indonesia |
| JEL: | D78 D82 |
| Date: | 2009–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0414&r=sea |
| By: | Tisdell, Clem |
| Abstract: | The production of biofuels has been supported by many conservationists and environmentalists on the grounds that it reduces greenhouse gas emissions and is a renewable energy substitute for non-renewable fossil fuels, mainly oil. More recently the domestic production of biofuels (and the domestic supply of other forms of alternative energy) have been welcomed by several nations as ways to reduce their oil imports and increase their energy self-sufficiency, as for example, has happened in the United States. India also which is very dependent on oil imports has also begun to produce biofuels in Kerala and elsewhere. However, doubts have been raised about the effectiveness of biofuel use as a means to reduce the accumulation of greenhouse gases and elementary economics teaches us that it is likely to have opportunity costs. For example, increased cropping to provide biofuels can be at the expense of the production of food and natural fibres thereby adding to their prices. It may also increase the conversion of natural areas to agricultural use and consequently, add to biodiversity loss and an increase in greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. For example, in Borneo, forests are being converted to grow oil palm, partly used for biodiesel production in developing countries. These issues are discussed generally and their economic welfare implications are given particular attention in relation to Asian nations. Amongst the different situations examined from economic welfare and environmental points of view are the following: 1. Asian nations producing biofuels for their own use from home-grown crops, as is the case of India and China. 2. The external trade of Asian countries in feedstock for biofuels, such as palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia and in biofuel itself. 3. Possible Asian ventures to grow crops for biofuels abroad or import biofuels. 4. The economic consequences for Asian countries of decisions by higher income countries, such as the United States (which also happens to be a major global exporter of food and natural fibre), to raise their production of biofuels. Analysis is provided that casts doubts on the likelihood that the introduction of biofuels will reduce greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere. |
| Keywords: | Biofuels, conservation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2009–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uqseee:55340&r=sea |
| By: | Peter Warr; Arief Anshory Yusuf |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that recent increases in international food prices worsened poverty incidence in Indonesia, even though many poor farmers benefited. This conclusion is based on the application of a multi-sectoral, multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy. The positive effect on the welfare of poor farmers was exceeded by the negative effect on poor consumers. Indonesia’s ban on rice imports since 2004 complicates this account. The import ban shielded Indonesia’s internal rice market from the temporary world price increases from 2007 to 2008, but did so at the expense of permanently increasing both rice prices and poverty incidence. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia; food prices; poverty incidence; general equilibrium modeling |
| JEL: | D58 I32 F14 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2009-19&r=sea |
| By: | Judith Thornton |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2009-22&r=sea |
| By: | Tirtosudarmo, Riwanto |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses population movement in Indonesia within the broader contexts of human development. Human movement, voluntary and involuntary, is a reflection of the people initiatives and responses to the changing nature of society and economy. As a large archipelagic state, movement of people across the country, historically, has always an important dimension of social formation in Indonesia. The paper however focuses on movement of people in the last four decades. It aims to examine the connection between migration and its wider social and economic contexts, looking at how politics shape migration policy and in turn, how migration affects policy making. The paper discusses at length recent issues of overseas labor migration, particularly on the apparently embedded inertia within the policy making processes. The continuing incidences of irregular migration, forced migration and human trafficking obviously mirror the incapacity of the state in properly managing the movement of people. The insufficient data and information generally hampered any conclusive linkages of migration and human development. With or without state’s proper policies people will continuously on the move enriching human development in Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia; migration; transmigration; social formation; economic development; human development |
| JEL: | Z1 O15 |
| Date: | 2009–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19201&r=sea |
| By: | Graham Bird (University of Surrey); Alex Mandilaras (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | Traditional models have encountered problems in explaining the ac- cumulation of international reserves, particularly in Asia, in the period since the late 1990s. One suggestion has been that countries have sought to self insure against future crises, either because of a perceived increase in the cost of crises or because of the perceived conditionality costs of using IMF credits. This paper others an empirical investigation of these ideas, disaggregating across regions and across IMF facilities. Using both static and dynamic regression techniques we find that IMF pro- grams have had a significant positive effect on subsequent reserve accu- mulation, allowing for other determinants, and that this effect endures over time. We also find that the effect differs between Latin America and Asia, and that it is not simply a phenomenon that is associated with the Asian crisis of 1997/98. The paper goes on to discuss the implications for the design of policy and for the reform of the IMF. |
| Keywords: | International Reserves, IMF |
| JEL: | F3 |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0509&r=sea |
| By: | Kundu, Amitabh |
| Abstract: | The present paper overviews urbanisation and migration process in Asian countries at macro level since 1950s, including the projections made till 2030. It questions the thesis of southward movement of urbanisation and that of urban explosion in Asia. Increased unaffordability of urban space and basic amenities, negative policy perspective towards migration and various rural development pogrammes designed to discourage migration are responsible for this exclusionary urban growth and a distinct decline in urban rural growth differential, with the major exception of China. The changing structure of urban population across different size categories reveals a shift of growth dynamics from large to second order cities and stagnation of small towns. The pace of urbanization has been modest to high in select countries in Asia, not because of their level of economic growth but its composition and labour intensity of rapidly growing informal sectors. Several countries have launched programmes for improving governance and infrastructural facilities in a few large cities, attracting private investors from within as well as outside the country. These have pushed out squatter settlements, informal sector businesses along with a large number of pollutant industries to a few pockets and peripheries of the cities. The income level and quality of basic amenities in these cities, as a result, have gone up but that has been associated with increased intra-city disparity and creation of degenerated periphery. Nonetheless, there is no strong evidence that urbanization is associated with destabilization of agrarian economy, poverty and immiserisation, despite the measures of globalization resulting in regional imbalances. The overview of the trend and pattern suggests that the pace of urbanization would be reasonably high but much below the level projected by UNPD in the coming decades. |
| Keywords: | urbanisation; migration; exclusion; periphery; informalisation; small towns; economic concentration; urban rural growth differential; Asia; China and India |
| JEL: | O15 P25 N95 |
| Date: | 2009–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19197&r=sea |
| By: | Kumar, Saten |
| Abstract: | This article examines Wagner’s Law for East Asian countries (China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea) for the period 1960 to 2007. Using the Gregory and Hansen (1996a & b) structural break techniques, we find a cointegrating relationship between real government spending and real income. Our preferred Gregory and Hansen models are with the level shift for Hong Kong and Taiwan and regime shift (change in intercept and slope coefficients) for China, Japan and South Korea. The income elasticity of government spending ranges from 0.756 to 1.155. With these findings, we infer that Wagner’s Law does hold for these countries, except for Hong Kong where the income elasticity is not highly statistically significant. |
| Keywords: | Real Government Spending; Real Income; Gregory and Hansen Structural Break Techniques. |
| JEL: | H50 C22 |
| Date: | 2009–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19298&r=sea |
| By: | Rao, B. Bhaskara; Singh, Rup |
| Abstract: | This paper uses an extension to the Solow growth model to estimate the level and growth effects of human capital. Empirical results for a panel of 10 Asian countries from 1960-2003 show that both the growth and level effects of human capital are positive and significant. |
| Keywords: | Level and growth effects of human capital; extension to the Solow growth model. |
| JEL: | O47 |
| Date: | 2009–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19082&r=sea |
| By: | Pierre van der Eng |
| Abstract: | Do markets in less-developed countries abate consequences of climate stress? Rainfall is an important factor in rice production in Indonesia. This paper uses changes in regional rice prices across the 19 residencies in less-developed Java to assess how rice markets responded to variations in rainfall during 1935-1940. It finds that rice markets were highly integrated across Java. The El Niño-induced episodes of lower than usual rainfall in 1935 and 1940 did not have a negative effect on levels and variations in regional rice prices, nor did they have adverse consequences for the supply of rice. Adaptive responses of firms specialising in the trade of rice are likely to have mitigated regional deficiencies in food production caused by climate stress. |
| JEL: | N55 O13 Q13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2009-509&r=sea |
| By: | Budy P Resosudarmo; Arief A Yusuf; Djoni Hartono; Ditya A Nurdianto |
| Abstract: | Ten years after the implementation of a major decentralization policy, issues of inter-regional disparities in income and rates of natural resource extraction still figure prominently in Indonesian economic policy debate. There is great interest in identifying the macro policies that would reduce regional income disparity and better control the rate of natural extraction, while maintaining reasonable national economic growth. In this paper we develop an inter-regional computable general equilibrium model (IRSA-INDONESIA5) as an appropriate tools for analysis these issues and employ it to examine economy-wide impacts of various policies under consideration. |
| Keywords: | Computable General Equilibrium, Development Planning and Policy, Environmental Economics. |
| JEL: | C68 O20 Q50 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2009-21&r=sea |
| By: | Abdul Jalil , Ahmad Zafarullah |
| Abstract: | In the last two decades there has been a worldwide interest in decentralization of government in all parts of the world. There are two main objectives that we tried to achieve through this study. Firstly, we tried to examine empirically the effects of decentralization on macroeconomic stability. Even though there is a huge literature both theoretically and empirically on the impact of decentralization, not many of them seems to be interested on the question of the link between decentralization and macroeconomic stability. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the outcome of a decentralization policy which in short can be defined as the delegation of more powers and responsibilities to lower level governments, depends largely on the behavior of these subnational governments. As such, in the second part of this thesis, we tried to analyze the determinants of subnational governments’ behaviors. More specifically, we tried to look at the relation between the behavior of subnational governments and the institutions in which they evolve and more particularly the incentives that result from these institutions. In order to achieve that, we used Malaysia as our case study. |
| Keywords: | Decentralization; Fiscal Federalism; Macroeconomic Stability; Subnational governments’ behavior; Malaysia. |
| JEL: | H77 H7 |
| Date: | 2009–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19071&r=sea |
| By: | Dan Hammer; Robin Kraft; David Wheeler |
| Abstract: | Rising concern about carbon emissions from deforestation has led donors to finance UN-REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries), a program that offers direct compensation for forest conservation. Sustainable operation of UN-REDD and other direct-compensation programs will require a transparent, credible, frequently updated system for monitoring deforestation. In this paper, we introduce FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action), a prototype system based on remotely sensed data. We test its accuracy against the best available information on deforestation in Brazil and Indonesia. Our results indicate that publicly available remotely sensed data can support accurate quarterly identification of new deforestation at 1 km spatial resolution. More rapid updates at higher spatial resolution may also be possible. At current resolution, with efficient coding in publicly available software, FORMA should produce global updates on one desktop computer in a few hours. Maps of probable deforestation at 1 km resolution will be accessible with Google Earth and Google Maps, with an open facility for ground-truthing each pixel via photographs and text comments. |
| Keywords: | remote sensing; forest; deforestation; conservation; climate change |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:192&r=sea |
| By: | de Bruijn, Bart |
| Abstract: | In the study of international mobility, refugees make up a very specific population. In contrast to most migrants, forcibly displaced persons have little opportunity for expanding livelihoods, and are usually faced with realities that deny them a dignified life and fulfilment of their capabilities. In many situations, people who left their homes to escape from persecution, armed conflict or violence face restrictive policies of the countries in which they found refuge and become critically dependent on humanitarian assistance. This paper describes living conditions and wellbeing of refugees – and more particularly camp-based refugees – in six countries with protracted refugee conditions: Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya in Africa, and Nepal, Bangladesh and Thailand in Asia. It primarily draws on UNHCR’s ‘Standards and Indicators’ data. Thematic areas covered in the paper include legal protection, gender-related issues, food security and nutritional status, health, education, and refugee livelihoods and coping strategies. The assessment of refugees’ living conditions proceeds along two different perspectives. The first is a gap analysis based on UNHCR standards, which are largely in line with SPHERE standards. The second is a comparison of refugees’ living conditions with those of host populations in the country of asylum and with those of populations on the country of origin. The available data lead to the conclusion that the living conditions of refugees vary across thematic areas and are strongly contextualised, depending on a complex of social, economic, political and attitudinal factors. There is also evidence that despite often grim conditions, at times the targeted efforts of humanitarian assistance and own coping strategies produce situations for refugees that are relatively better than that of the local hosting communities or the population in the region of origin. |
| Keywords: | Refugees; displacement; living conditions; livelihoods; protection; UNHCR |
| JEL: | O15 I3 |
| Date: | 2009–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19208&r=sea |
| By: | Deb, Partha; Seck, Papa |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to measure the returns to migration using non-experimental data taking both observed and unobserved characteristics into account. A significant challenge related to migration research and the issues of unobserved heterogeneity is that the standard 2stage least squares estimator (2SLS) is strictly only applicable to situations with linear and continuous treatment and outcomes, both of which are not appropriate for models of migration and many outcomes of interest. Furthermore, migration is not always a binary process given that people migrate to city or non-city locations and some migrants do return. Introducing these multinomial treatment effects means that one cannot rely on standard 2SLS methods. Using panel data from Indonesia (Indonesia Family Life Survey—IFLS) and Mexico (Mexican Family Life Survey— MxFLS) and applying non-linear instrumental variable (Heckman’s treatment effects model) and maximum simulated likelihood models, we measure the impacts of migration on a broad range of variables that include socio economic outcomes such as consumption, nutrition, health status and emotional well-being for adult household members and health and schooling outcomes for children. We find consistent results for both countries that point to significant trade-offs related to migration. We found that migration can greatly improve socio-economic status through increases in income or consumption but can also be detrimental to the health status and emotional well-being of migrants and/or their extended families. |
| Keywords: | The aim of this paper is to measure the returns to migration using non-experimental data taking both observed and unobserved characteristics into account. A significant challenge related to migration research and the issues of unobserved heterogeneity is that the standard 2stage least squares estimator (2SLS) is strictly only applicable to situations with linear and continuous treatment and outcomes; both of which are not appropriate for models of migration and many outcomes of interest. Furthermore; migration is not always a binary process given that people migrate to city or non-city locations and some migrants do return. Introducing these multinomial treatment effects means that one cannot rely on standard 2SLS methods. Using panel data from Indonesia (Indonesia Family Life Survey—IFLS) and Mexico (Mexican Family Life Survey— MxFLS) and applying non-linear instrumental variable (Heckman’s treatment effects model) and maximum simulated likelihood models; we measure the impacts of migration on a broad range of variables that include socio economic outcomes such as consumption; nutrition; health status and emotional well-being for adult household members and health and schooling outcomes for children. We find consistent results for both countries that point to significant trade-offs related to migration. We found that migration can greatly improve socio-economic status through increases in income or consumption but can also be detrimental to the health status and emotional well-being of migrants and/or their extended families. |
| JEL: | C3 O15 C8 |
| Date: | 2009–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19214&r=sea |
| By: | Mohd-Derus, Mohmad; Mohd-Yunus, Othman; Saberi, Mohd Hafiz |
| Abstract: | It is the government role in providing infra-structure and basic amenities for the public. In Malaysia the Work Ministry is formed to oversee this role. Ensuring effectiveness and efficiency, the Public Service Department must identify competencies require for every position created in the Work Ministry and one such position is the position of Quantity surveyor. Research thus far shows that individual employees performance is not just built around technical expertise possess but also important is the behaviour. Since organization successes stand on its employees performance thus it is utmost important for organization to identify not only the right technical but also behavioural competencies for each and every individual position created. This paper discusses the need to explore competencies of exceptional Quantity surveyors and in the process suggests the means to identify those competencies. It is also argued that undertaking this heavy task cannot be accomplished without the participation of experienced public Quantity surveyors. The importance of competencies model for Quantity surveyors is also discussed in relation to human capital development which includes promotion, training, and recruitment of young Quantity surveyors to serve the public service. |
| Keywords: | Competencies; Exceptional Quantity surveyor; Quantity Surveying Profession; Public Sector; Delphi Study |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2009–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19048&r=sea |