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on South East Asia |
| By: | Cooray, Arusha (University of Wollongong); B. Bhaskara Rao (University of Western Sydney, Sydney, Australia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the growing gap between the theoretical and empirical growth literature and policy needs of the developing economies. Growth literature has focused mainly on long term growth outcomes, but policy makers of the developing economies need rapid improvements in the short to medium term growth rates; see Pritchett (2006). In this paper we argue that this gap can be reduced by distinguishing between the short to medium term dynamic effects of policies from their long run equilibrium effects. With data from Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, we show that an extended version of the Solow (1956) model is well suited for this purpose. We find that the short to medium term growth effects of the investment ratio are quite significant and they may persist for up to 10 years. |
| Keywords: | Solow Growth Model, Endogenous Growth, Dynamic Growth Effects of Investment Ratio, Policies for Developing Countries. |
| JEL: | O11 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uow:depec1:wp09-09&r=sea |
| By: | Brittle, Shane (University of Wollongong) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the growing gap between the theoretical and empirical growth literature and policy needs of the developing economies. Growth literature has focused mainly on long term growth outcomes, but policy makers of the developing economies need rapid improvements in the short to medium term growth rates; see Pritchett (2006). In this paper we argue that this gap can be reduced by distinguishing between the short to medium term dynamic effects of policies from their long run equilibrium effects. With data from Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, we show that an extended version of the Solow (1956) model is well suited for this purpose. We find that the short to medium term growth effects of the investment ratio are quite significant and they may persist for up to 10 years. |
| Keywords: | Ricardian equivalence, fiscal policy, cointegration, structural breaks. |
| JEL: | E21 E62 C22 H62 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uow:depec1:wp09-10&r=sea |
| By: | Rigg, Robert; Schou-Zibell, Lotte (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Asian money markets entered the financial crisis in better shape than markets in other regions due to a substantial build-up of savings and liquidity in their banking systems, as well as a greater domestic focus in most of the region’s markets. However, despite the higher liquidity and lower levels of global integration, the effects of the crisis in Asia were severe and followed a similar path observed in international markets. The further development of money markets, particularly in less developed economies, will require policies and initiatives that add liquidity and depth to attract broader participation from both domestic and international investors—including regional cooperation, a robust regulatory architecture, and foreign competition to expedite the development of less developed money markets. Risk management and liquidity assumptions also need to be enhanced to establish buffers that will withstand more severe and prolonged external shocks and disruptions to external financing. |
| Keywords: | Money market; money market participants; components of money markets; financial crisis |
| JEL: | F30 G00 G20 O53 |
| Date: | 2009–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbrei:0038&r=sea |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Both domestic and international tourism are a major source of service export receipts for many countries worldwide, and is also increasingly important in Taiwan. One of the three leading tourism source countries for Taiwan is the Republic of Korea, which is a source of short haul tourism. Daily data from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2008 are used to model the Korean Won / New Taiwan $ exchange rate and tourist arrivals from Korea to Taiwan, as well as their associated volatility. The sample period includes the Asian economic and financial crises in 1997, and a significant part of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Inclusion of the exchange rate allows approximate daily price effects on Korean tourism arrivals to Taiwan to be captured. The Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model is used to capture long memory properties in exchange rates and Korean tourist arrivals, to test whether alternative estimates of conditional volatility are sensitive to the long memory in the conditional mean, and to examine asymmetry and leverage in volatility. The empirical results show that the conditional volatility estimates are not sensitive to the long memory nature of the conditional mean specifications. The QMLE for the GARCH(1,1), GJR(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models for Korean tourist arrivals to Taiwan and the Korean Won / New Taiwan $ exchange rate are statistically adequate and have sensible interpretations. Asymmetry (though not leverage) is found for several alternative HAR models. |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf691&r=sea |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University); Thanchanok Khamkaew (Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | The significant impact of international tourism in stimulating economic growth is especially important from a policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between international tourism and economic growth would seem to be an interesting empirical issue. In particular, if there is a causal link between international tourism demand and economic growth, then appropriate policy implications may be developed. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether tourism specialization is important for economic development in East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, over the period 1991-2008. The impact of the degree of tourism specialization, which is incorporated as a threshold variable, on economic growth is examined for a wide range of countries at different stages of economic development. The empirical results from threshold estimation identify two endogenous cut-off points, namely 14.97% and 17.50%. This indicates that the entire sample should be divided into three regimes. The results from panel threshold regression show that there exists a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and tourism in two regimes, the regime with the degree of tourism specialization lower than 14.97% (regime 1) and the regime with the degree of tourism specialization between 14.97% and 17.50% (regime 2). However, the magnitudes of the impact of tourism on economic growth in those two regimes are not the same, with the higher impact being found in regime 2. An insignificant relationship between economic growth and tourism is found in regime 3, in which the degree of tourism specialization is greater than 17.50%. The empirical results suggest that tourism growth does not always lead to economic growth. |
| Date: | 2009–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf685&r=sea |
| By: | Valadkhani, Abbas (University of Wollongong); O'Brien, Martin (University of Wollongong); Karunanayake, Indika |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model to provide an insight into the nature of interaction between stock market returns of four countries, namely, Australia, Singapore, the UK, and the US. Using weekly data spanning from January 1992 to December 2008 the results indicate that all markets (particularly Australia and Singapore) display significant positive mean-spillovers from the US stock market returns but not vice versa. We also found strong evidence for both own and cross ARCH and GARCH effects among all four markets, indicating the existence of significant volatility and cross volatility spillovers across all four markets. Given a high degree of common time-varying co-volatility among these four countries, investors will be highly unlikely to benefit a reduction of risk if they diversify their financial portfolio with stocks from these four countries only |
| Keywords: | Multivariate GARCH; Stock returns; Volatility, Australia |
| JEL: | C32 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uow:depec1:wp09-11&r=sea |
| By: | Carlo Gola; Francesco Spadafora |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis has magnified the role of Financial Sector Surveillance (FSS) in the Fund's activities. This paper surveys the various steps and initiatives through which the Fund has increasingly deepened its involvement in FSS. Overall, this process can be characterized by a preliminary stage and two main phases. The preliminary stage dates back to the 1980s and early 1990s, and was mainly related to the Fund's research and technical assistance activities within the process of monetary and financial deregulation embraced by several member countries. The first "official" phase of the Fund's involvement in FSS started in the aftermath of the Mexican crisis, and relates to the international call to include financial sector issues among the core areas of Fund surveillance. The second phase focuses on the objectives of bringing the coverage of financial sector issues "up to par" with the coverage of other traditional core areas of surveillance, and of integrating financial analysis into the Fund's analytical macroeconomic framework. By urging the Fund to give greater attention to its member countries' financial systems, the international community's response to the global crisis may mark the beginning of a new phase of FSS. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultations , Asia , Exchange rate policy surveillance , Financial crisis , Financial sector , Financial Sector Assessment Program , Financial soundness indicators , Fund role , Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 , International financial system , Mexico , Multilateral surveillance , Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes , |
| Date: | 2009–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/247&r=sea |
| By: | Valadkhani, Abbas (University of Wollongong) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the long-run and short-run determinants of unleaded petrol prices in Australia’s capital cities using monthly data to test whether prices respond asymmetrically to external shocks. In the long-run petrol prices are mainly determined by the Tapis crude oil and Singapore petrol prices. There is some evidence of asymmetric price adjustments in the short-run since petrol price increases have been mostly passed on to the consumer faster than price decreases in four capital cities. One can thus argue that there are a significant degree of market inefficiency and/or collusion, requiring closer government price monitoring and scrutiny. |
| Keywords: | Petrol prices; Asymmetric effects; Australia. |
| JEL: | C22 E31 L11 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uow:depec1:wp09-08&r=sea |
| By: | Tinh T. Doan (University of Waikato); John Gibson (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | A key stylized fact about transition economies is that the returns to schooling rise as economic reform progresses. Existing research suggests that Vietnam is an exception to this pattern, with a decrease in males’ return from 1992 to 1998, and little increase in the return to females’ education (Liu, 2006). This exception may be because of the gradual economic reform applied in Vietnam, whilst in Eastern European countries the “Big Bang” transformation was conducted. Therefore to see whether Vietnam is still a counter example, we re-examine the trend in the rate of return to schooling in Vietnam over the 1998-2004 period, where the reforms have had a longer time to have an effect. |
| Keywords: | economic transition; returns to schooling; Vietnam |
| JEL: | J31 O15 |
| Date: | 2009–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:09/08&r=sea |
| By: | Booth, Alison L.; Tamura, Yuji |
| Abstract: | Using the first two waves of the Vietnam Living Standards Survey, we investigate how a father’s temporary absence affects children left behind in terms of their school attendance, household expenditures on education, and nonhousework labor supply in the 1990s. The estimating subsample is children aged 7-18 in households in which both parents usually coreside and the mother has not been absent. Our results indicate that paternal temporary absence increases nonhousework labor supply by his son. The longer the absence of the father, the larger the impact. One additional month of paternal temporary absence increases a son’s nonhousework labor supply by approximately one week. However, a daughter’s nonhousework labor supply is not affected. We find no evidence that paternal temporary absence influences his children in terms of school attendance or education-related household expenditures. |
| Keywords: | child labor; human capital investment; parental absence; schooling; temporary migration; Vietnam; VLSS |
| JEL: | I22 O15 P36 |
| Date: | 2009–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7440&r=sea |