nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2009‒08‒16
seven papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. The Asian crisis: what did local stock markets expect? By Alicia García-Herrero; Jacob Gyntelberg; Andrea Tesei
  2. Restoring the Asian Silk Route: Toward an Integrated Asia By Biswa N Bhattacharyay
  3. Why don't Asians invest in Asia:The determinants of cross-border portfolio holdings By Alicia García-Herrero; Philip Woolbridge; Doo Yong Yang
  4. Symmetry in farm-retail price transmission: pork in Malaysia By Tey, (John) Yeong Sheng
  5. Revisiting Indonesia’s Sources of Economic Growth and Its Projection Towards 2030 By Armida Alisjahbana
  6. Measuring Weak Sustainability for the future: Calculating Genuine Saving with population change by an integrated assessment model By Koji, Tokimatsu; Takanobu, Kosugi; Atsushi , Kurosawa; Norihiro, Itsubo; Masaji, Sakagami
  7. Investigating Thai Shopping Behaviour: Wet-Markets, Supermarkets and Food Quality By Gorton, Matthew; Sauer, Johannes; Supatpongkul, Pajaree

  1. By: Alicia García-Herrero; Jacob Gyntelberg; Andrea Tesei
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate whether cross-sectional information: from local equity markets contained information on devaluation expectations during the Asian crisis. We concentrate on the information content of equity prices as these markets were in general the largest and most liquid at the time and, thus, presumably the best carriers of information. Using an event-study approach to the period leading up to each of the devaluations which occurred during the Asian crisis (namely those of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand), we compare returns in the equity prices of exporting and non-exporting firms. This is based on the assumption that the expectation of devaluation should help the stock of exporting firms outperform those of non-exporting firms. Overall we do find some evidence supporting this hypothesis, although at different degrees depending on the country. Our second finding is that local equity market prices, as reflected in the different patterns seen for exporters and non-exporters, did to at least to some extent price in the possibility that the Thai devaluation would be followed by other countries in the region.
    Keywords: Asian crisis, currency crisis, information content of local equity market prices.
    JEL: F31 G15 G14
    Date: 2009–02
  2. By: Biswa N Bhattacharyay
    Abstract: Lack of full regional connectivity is one of the major constraints hindering regional growth and integration in Asia, as well as with the rest of the world. One of the conclusions of this paper is that Asia must strengthen its physical connectivity to make it a conduit for international trade though restoring Asian Silk Route. This paper deals with current trade and transport integration issues among the countries in Asia as well as challenges that need to be addressed in order to achieve regional connectivity through an Asia-wide transport infrastructure. [WP 140]
    Keywords: infrastructure, countries, economic integration, europe, trade flows, Africa, exports, manufactures, regional, asia, physical connectivity, international trade, transport, Asian Silk, route,
    Date: 2009
  3. By: Alicia García-Herrero; Philip Woolbridge; Doo Yong Yang
    Abstract: This paper seeks to understand why Asian foreign investment is concentrated in financial markets outside of the region instead of in Asian markets. We analyse empirically the geographical composition of the cross-border portfolio holdings of more than 40 source countries. We compare these benchmark results with those of four subgroups: advanced industrial economies; emerging market economies; European economies; and Asia-Pacific economies. The lack of liquidity in Asian financial markets turns out to be one reason why Asian capital is invested predominantly outside the region, notwithstanding the short distances and large trade flows between Asian economies. Initiatives to improve the liquidity of Asian financial markets, therefore, may be a useful way to stimulate financial integration within the region.
    Keywords: Cross-border portfolio investment; regional financial integration; gravity model.
    JEL: F21 F36 G11
    Date: 2009–04
  4. By: Tey, (John) Yeong Sheng
    Abstract: This study intends to determine the farm-retail price transmission behaviors of pork in Malaysia to serve as a good implication for pork pricing system in Malaysia. Using data from January 1997 to December 2008, both the Houck and ECM approaches were found symmetric where a change in farm price of pork was observed to have similar change in retail price of pork in Malaysia. The price setting system of pork can therefore be further described by the estimated price transmission elasticities where retail price is very sensitive to the changes in farm price. A change in farm price is expected to result in a bigger change in retail price of pork while other things remain unchanged.
    Keywords: symmetry, pork, elasticity of price transmission
    JEL: Q11 Q13
    Date: 2009–08–01
  5. By: Armida Alisjahbana (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)
    Abstract: This paper revisits Indonesia’s sources of economic growth using the Growth Accounting Framework with education adjusted employment for period 1971-2007. The study estimates contribution of growth in capital stock, human capital and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) during the period before and after the crisis. TFP played positive but minor role in Indonesia’s economic growth before the crisis. Growth in capital stock had been the main driver, attributing between 50-70% of growth. Growth in human capital accounted for another 30%. The pattern of sources of growth has changed substantially post crisis. TFP growth has played a more significant role, whereas capital stock growth has been increasing but at a meager pace. Human capital has consistently contributed about 30% to the overall growth. The roles of capital stock growth, human capital growth and TFP have been on a more equal footing after post-crisis. If this trend persists, it will have profound implication on the driver of Indonesian economy’s growth in the future and its trajectory projection towards 2030.
    Keywords: Economic growth, Total Factor Productivity, Indonesia 2030
    JEL: E37
    Date: 2009–07
  6. By: Koji, Tokimatsu; Takanobu, Kosugi; Atsushi , Kurosawa; Norihiro, Itsubo; Masaji, Sakagami
    Abstract: This paper presents a future figure of Genuine Saving with population growth (GSn). This was enabled by using an integrated assessment model, similar to the RICE model by Nordhaus. The model consists of sub-models that evaluate various kinds of mineral resources and environmental impacts. Results indicates that GSn is positive i) in OECD during the 21st century, ii) in World and the former Soviet Union and East Europe after 2030, and iii) in Asia and the Middle East and Africa after 2050. GSn is negative in Latin America during the 21st century.
    Keywords: Genuine Saving; population change; sustainability; integrated assessment model; impact assessment model; growth model
    JEL: Q56 Q01
    Date: 2009–07–04
  7. By: Gorton, Matthew; Sauer, Johannes; Supatpongkul, Pajaree
    Abstract: An analysis of primary survey data on Thai shopping behavior seeks to understand the relative satisfaction of consumers with wet markets and supermarkets and identify the factors that affect frequency of visit to, and purchase behavior within, these retail outlets. This is used as a basis for engaging in wider debates on the âsupermarket revolutionâ in Asia. On all salient attributes affecting retail outlet choice, wet markets are perceived, in general, to be inferior to supermarkets. However for fresh produce sales, wet markets retain an advantage. Both socio-economic characteristics and retail outlet attributes are considered as determinants of food shopping behavior. Bootstrapped bivariate ordered probit models identify that those using wet markets more frequently are older and characterized by lower incomes and educational achievement. Bootstrapped bivariate Tobit models reveal that those purchasing a higher proportion of fresh produce from wet markets do so based on product quality and do not regard wet markets as lacking cleanliness. Visit data are consistent with Reardonâs model of supermarket diffusion.
    Keywords: Food choice, retail, Thailand., Consumer/Household Economics, D12, L81, P46,
    Date: 2009–04–01

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