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on South East Asia |
| By: | Kensuke Tanaka |
| Abstract: | The ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have created one of the most dynamic developing regions. They have unveiled the Blueprint for the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) to achieve a “single market” by 2015. More recently, the full ratification of the ASEAN Charter in December 2008 has provided an institutional framework for what had been de facto regional integration underway since the 1980s. Realising the end goal of economic integration enshrined in the association’s blueprint and in the charter poses a major challenge to the region facing the global economic downturn. This Policy Insight suggests possible ways forward. |
| Date: | 2009–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaac:90-en&r=sea |
| By: | Tey , (John) Yeong-Sheng |
| Abstract: | This study shows that there is mounting meat consumption which is to be met by higher meat production. As the result, higher gas emission of CO2 is expected from increasing meat production. This is led by poultry and beef production which is likely to produce most of the greenhouse gas emissions from meat production in Malaysia. It is crucial to incorporate environmental consideration into livestock policy in National Agricultural Policy 4 and Tenth Malaysian Plan. |
| Keywords: | Meat; consumption; production; gas emission. |
| JEL: | Q50 Q11 |
| Date: | 2009–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14534&r=sea |
| By: | Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng; Randy , Stringer; Wendy , Umberger |
| Abstract: | The price difference between farm and retail levels is called price spread, which is constituted mostly by marketing costs and profits. From the price spread, this paper intends to estimate elasticities of price transmission for pork in Malaysia via different empirical model specifications of markup pricing model. Using data from January 1997 to December 2007, a quantitative analysis of farm-to-retail price spreads was undertaken for pork in Malaysia. It was found that retail price is the only variable which is significant. The farm-retail price transmission for pork is very elastic. |
| Keywords: | Price spread; elasticity of price transmission; pork |
| JEL: | Q11 Q13 |
| Date: | 2009–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14532&r=sea |
| By: | John Gilbert (Department of Economics and Finance, Utah State University) |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on the relationship between agricultural trade policy reform and poverty, and the results of recent detailed simulation studies applied to economies in the Asia- Pacific region. We then use the GTAP model to evaluate the possible impacts of the most recently proposed modalities for agricultural trade reform under Doha on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region, which we compare to a benchmark of comprehensive agricultural trade reform. The current proposal does not result in significant cuts to applied tariffs, and has very modest overall effects on welfare. Poverty in the region would decrease overall, but the distribution across countries is uneven. By contrast, comprehensive agricultural trade reform, with developing economies fully engaged, tends to benefit most economies in the region in the aggregate, and to consistently lower poverty. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural trade, Doha, Asia-Pacific, Poverty |
| JEL: | F13 F17 C68 O53 |
| Date: | 2008–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usu:wpaper:200801&r=sea |
| By: | Margherita Coloma; Luiz de Mello |
| Abstract: | This paper uses household survey (Sakernas) data from the 1996 and 2004 to estimate the determinants of earnings in Indonesia. The Indonesian labour market is segmented, with a majority of workers engaged in informal-sector occupations, and earnings data are available only for formal-sector workers (salaried employees). This posed problems for the estimation of earnings equations, because selection into different labour market statuses is likely to be non-random. In order to describe selection into different labour market statuses we use the most general version of the method proposed by Dubin and McFadden (1984), which Bourguignon, Fournier and Gurgand (2007) proved to be preferable to other available multinomial selection methods. We also deal with reverse causality between education attainment and earnings by estimating the selection equations using an instrumental variable technique. Our findings cast doubt on the use of a binomial selection rule and suggest that workers with higher levels of educational attainment are most likely to find a job in the formal sector, and that the informal sector is perceived by those workers who cannot obtain a job in the formal sector as an alternative to inactivity. This Working Paper relates to the 2008 OECD Economic Assessment of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/indonesia).<P>Les facteurs déterminants de l’emploi et des revenus en Indonésie : Une approche de sélection multinomiale<BR>Ce document estime les revenus en Indonésie sur la base des donnés des enquêtes auprès des ménages (Sakernas) de 1996 et 2004. Le marché du travail indonésien est segmenté, avec une majorité des travailleurs occupée dans le secteur informel, et les données sur les revenus sont disponibles que pour les salariés du secteur formel. Ceci présente des problèmes pour estimer les équations sur les revenus, car la catégorisation en fonction du statut sur le marché du travail doit être non-aléatoire. Pour décrire cette catégorisation, nous utilisons une version plus générale de la méthode proposée par Dubin et McFadden (1984), que Bourguignon, Fournier et Gurgand (2007) ont montré comme préférable à toutes autres méthodes de sélection multinomiale. Nos conclusions mettent en doute l’emploi d’une règle de sélection binomiale, et impliquent que les travailleurs ayant les plus hauts niveaux d’éducation sont les plus susceptibles de trouver un travail dans le secteur formel et que le secteur informel est perçu comme une alternative à l’inactivité par les travailleurs qui n’ont pas eu de travail dans le secteur formel. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Évaluation économique de l’OCDE de l’Indonésie, 2008 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/indonesie). |
| Keywords: | employment, emploi, earnings, Indonesia, Indonésie, multimonial section, sélection multimoniale, revenus |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J31 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:690-en&r=sea |
| By: | Naufal, George (American University of Sharjah); Vargas-Silva, Carlos (Sam Houston State University) |
| Abstract: | In this article we study the relationship between workers' remittances and fertility rate of the remittance receiving country. We identify two main channels by which remittances transfers affect fertility. First, migrants may adopt and later transmit to the household the ideas, values and attitudes predominant in the host country. Arguably, migrants with more attachment to the household would be more inclined to remit money home. Therefore, remittances can be seen as a proxy for the level of social norms (including fertility preferences) that is transmitted from the migrant to the household. Second, previous studies have shown that remittances money is often used for health services and educational expenses, factors that may ultimately decrease fertility rates. Using panel data for several countries we find a negative relationship between remittances and the fertility rate. The relationship is robust for a sub-sample of Latin American and African countries, but not for a sub-sample of Asian countries. In addition to finding evidence on the transfer of social norms from migrants to the home country, the paper also confirms that several socio-economic factors such as female labor force participation, percent of the population in rural areas and GDP per capita affect fertility rates. |
| Keywords: | remittances, fertility rate, panel data, Latin America, Africa, Asia |
| JEL: | F22 F24 J13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2009–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4066&r=sea |
| By: | John Gilbert (Department of Economics and Finance, Utah State University) |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on the relationship between trade policy reform and poverty, and recent approaches in the numerical simulation literature to estimating the impact of alternative trade reform scenarios. The GTAP model is then used to simulate the effect of the trade cooperation among the economies of BIMSTEC and Japan on aggregate welfare and poverty in the BIMSTEC member economies. As a case study, the results of the global model simulations are then used as an input to a more detailed model of simulation model of India, which identifies nine household groups classifed by their source of income and consumption pattern. Detailed estimates of the eect of trade reform at the household level are presented for India. |
| Keywords: | Trade reform, CGE, regional trading agreements, poverty, India, BIMSTEC |
| JEL: | F13 F17 C68 O53 |
| Date: | 2008–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usu:wpaper:200803&r=sea |
| By: | Duasa, Jarita |
| Abstract: | The present study attempts to analyze the long-run equilibrium relationship between real exchange rate and trade balance, imports and exports demand by cointegration tests assuming asymmetric adjustment. Following Enders and Siklos (2001), the Engle-Granger two-step cointegration test is expanding to incorporate an asymmetric error correction term. It is found that there exists asymmetric cointegration between balance of trade and real exchange rate when momentum-threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model is conducted and the study also found asymmetric cointegration between import volume and real exchange rate under threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. From estimation of M-TAR error-correction trade balance model, the adjustment back to equilibrium is more rapid following relative increase in trade balance (above long-run value) compared to relative decrease in trade balance (below long-run value). From TAR error-correction import demand model, the model suggests quick adjustment of import demand once it is below long-run value. The results reflect the evidence of persistence of trade balance deficit in the case of Malaysia which probably due to policies to defend an overvalued exchange rate by protectionist trade policies or capital controls. In addition, the shock of exchange rate on import demand is likely to be temporary in nature. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric cointegration; Trade balance; Threshold autoregressive; Momentum-threshold autoregressive. |
| JEL: | C32 F10 F41 |
| Date: | 2009–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14535&r=sea |
| By: | Jannett Highfill (Bradley University); Raymond Wojcikewych (Bradley University); Joshua Lewer (Bradley University) |
| Abstract: | Many developing economies of the world today have been building up massive foreign exchange reserves of industrialized economies. A clear example of this is China. In February of 2005, China surpassed Japan as the world's largest holder of foreign exchange reserves. After the Asian Contagion period of the late 1990's, this buildup as a whole could be seen as a healthy development. But with an accumulation of over $1.4 trillion in 2007, questions have arisen if China's actual reserves are too large relative to "normal demand." The purpose of this paper is to briefly review both the macroeconomic aspects of China's reserve holdings, and to examine the treatment of the subject in contemporary international economics textbooks.This paper was presented May 22, 2008, at the 18th International Conference of the International Trade and Finance Association, meeting at Universidade Nova de Lisboa in Lisbon, Portugal. |
| Date: | 2008–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bep:itfapp:1128&r=sea |
| By: | Tey , (John) Yeong-Sheng; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir; Mohamed, Zainalabidin; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Radam, Alias |
| Abstract: | One distinct change in Malaysian food consumption behavior is the preference for meat products over staple and grain foods intact with income growth. Having mentioned the changes in food consumption behaviors, indeed, there are changes in nutrient availability and intake as well. This study aims to provide a better understanding of meat consumption behaviors in terms of income, price, and nutrient elasticities by analyzing the Household Expenditure Survey 2004/05 data. In the first stage, expenditure and own-price elasticities are estimated via the LA/AIDS model. This is followed by an estimation of Engel function in the second stage to obtain the estimates of income elasticities for the meat products. This study shows that the major meat products (beef, pork, mutton, and poultry) are normal goods and own-price elastic. There are mixed messages obtained from the estimated nutrient elasticities. |
| Keywords: | Meat; price elasticity; income elasticity; nutrient elasticity |
| JEL: | Q11 I12 |
| Date: | 2008–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14533&r=sea |
| By: | Millimet, Daniel L. (Southern Methodist University); Wang, Le (University of New Hampshire) |
| Abstract: | Although the theoretical trade-off between the quantity and quality of children is well-established, empirical evidence supporting such a causal relationship − particularly on child health − is limited. We use two measures of child health to asses the quantity-quality trade-off across the entire distribution. Using data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey and controlling for the potential endogeneity of child quantity, we find evidence of a causal trade-off only for some and only in the short-run. |
| Keywords: | intrahousehold allocation, health, human capital, fertility, quantile treatment effects, stochastic dominance |
| JEL: | C14 D10 I12 O12 |
| Date: | 2009–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4078&r=sea |
| By: | Bruce Chapman; Kiatanantha Lounkaew |
| Abstract: | This paper illustrates the extent of implicit taxpayer subsidies under four possible income contingent loan (ICL) arrangements for Thailand: TICAL, implemented in 2007 only, a variant of TICAL, and two alternative ICL schemes. The implicit taxpayer subsidy calculated with respect to average graduate earnings for TICAL-type arrangements is between 25-40 per cent; however, the average implicit subsidies for the two alternatives are close to zero. When account is taken of disaggregated graduate earnings, the subsidies for TICALtype schemes increase to about 30-55 per cent. The subsidy is between 3-18 per cent for our alternative ICLs, depending on the form of the real rate of interest incurred. These results show that there is a viable ICL alternative to TICAL, which are of greatest benefit for low levels of debt. When the debt is relatively large the subsidies of even well designed schemes can be as high as 50 per cent. |
| Keywords: | income contingent loans; student loans; higher education financing |
| JEL: | I00 I2 I20 I21 I22 I28 |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:dpaper:595&r=sea |
| By: | Bruce Chapman; Kiatanantha Lounkaew; Piruna Polsiri; Rangsit Sarachitti; Thitima Sitthipongpanich |
| Abstract: | This paper presents analysis of the implicit subsidies and repayment hardships of Thailand’s Student Loan Fund (SLF). Comparisons are made between the current SLF with alternative similar schemes, assuming different rates of interest and loan repayment periods. We find that the implicit interest rate subsidy is about 66 per cent, with much of this being due to the fact that the scheme charges only a 1 per cent per annum nominal interest rate. The repayment hardships, measured as the proportion of a graduate’s income allocated to servicing the debt, are around 4 and 3 per cent, for female and male graduates earning average incomes by age. However, these increase to 12 and 10 per cent for female and males whose earnings are in the bottom deciles. The current SLF is generous in terms of repayment hardship for the borrowers. However, the scheme appears to be unsatisfactory in terms of the extent of implicit subsidies.can generate a large (non-marginal) switch to home production and the ensuing deadweight losses are large. Using a cross-country panel, we find that gender differences in labour supply responses to tax policy can explain differences in aggregate labour supply and years of education across countries. |
| Keywords: | student loans; higher education financing |
| JEL: | I00 I2 I20 I21 I22 I28 |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:dpaper:592&r=sea |
| By: | Rosita Chong (University Malaysia Sabah); Alex Anderson (Universiti Malaysia Sabah) |
| Abstract: | Faith and moral have not been the only factors that influenced people to invest ethically, but also their conscience too. People has long shun away from unethical forms of business activity. Therefore, many view that ethical investment overlaps Islamic investment. Though there are many similarities between them such as the prohibition of investment in business activities that are harmful to human being, and that both forms of investment required screening processes in order to determine the ethically acceptable form of investment. Nevertheless, there are some distinct differences. This is because Islamic investment is much more than merely investing activities as it is deeply rooted in the teaching of the Qur'an. Hence, principally the two types of investment are different. With the intense process of globalisation, there is a belief that they will converge. This study tries to show that while the types of investment possess similarities, however they differ in many aspects. This paper was presented May 22, 2008, at the 18th International Conference of the International Trade and Finance Association, meeting at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.Key Words: Islamic investment, Ethical Investment, Converge |
| Date: | 2008–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bep:itfapp:1134&r=sea |
| By: | Vasco J. Gabriel (Department of Economics, University of Surrey and Universidade do Minho - NIPE); Pataaree Sangduan (Bureau of the Budget, Thailand) |
| Abstract: | We propose a Markov switching cointegration approach to assess long run fiscal sustainability. This method allow us to simultaneously: 1) test for cointegration in the presence of significant fiscal policy changes; 2) assess the type of fiscal regime (whether 'strongly'/'weakly' sustainable or unsustainable) that a country experienced at a given period and 3) analyse the timing of the transition between the estimated regime types. Given its flexibility, our approach enable us to uncover a richer and more complex dynamics in the analysis of fiscal sustainability, which standard linear cointegration methods fail to capture. |
| JEL: | C22 E62 H60 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nip:nipewp:09/2009&r=sea |
| By: | Vasco Gabriel (University of Surrey); Pataaree Sangduan (Bureau of the Budget, Thailand) |
| Abstract: | We propose a Markov switching cointegration approach to assess long run fi?scal sustainability. This method allows us to simultaneously: 1) test for cointegration in the presence of signifi?cant ?fiscal policy changes; 2) assess the type of fi?scal regime (whether strongly/weakly sustainable or unsustainable) that a country experienced at a given period and 3) analyse the timing of the transition between the estimated regime types. Given its flexibility, our approach enables us to uncover a richer and more complex dynamics in the analysis of fi?scal sustainability, which standard linear cointegration methods fail to capture. |
| JEL: | C22 E62 H60 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0309&r=sea |