nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2009‒01‒03
eight papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Pre and post crisis analysis of stock price and exchange rate: Evidence from Malaysia By Baharom, A.H.; Habibullah, M.S.; R.C., Royfaizal
  2. A New Measurement for International Fragmentation of the Production Process: An International Input-Output Approach By Inomata, Satoshi
  3. Finance, growth, inequality and hunger in Asia: Evidence from country panel data in 1960-2006 By Katsushi Imai; Raghav Gaiha; Ganesh Thapa
  4. Institutionalizing Northeast Asia: Challenges and Opportunities By Timmermann, Martina
  5. Asian Energy and Environmental Policy: Promoting Growth While Preserving the Environment By Zhang, ZhongXiang
  6. Bounds Estimation for Trade Openness and Government Expenditure Nexus of ASEAN-4 Countries By Kueh, Jerome Swee-Hui; Puah, Chin-Hong; Wong, Chiew-Meu
  7. Migration Enclaves, Schooling Choices and Social Mobility By Mario Piacentini
  8. Estimating the determinants of capital flows to emerging market economies: a maximum likelihood disequilibrium approach By Felices, Guillermo; Orskaug, Bjorn-Erik

  1. By: Baharom, A.H.; Habibullah, M.S.; R.C., Royfaizal
    Abstract: The furore and chaos created by the Asian financial crisis have ignited many studies on numerous subjects, and it is believed that the crisis has changed the way nations being administered and policies formed and implemented especially those regarding monetary and fiscal policies. Johansen (1991) cointegration method was used and the period was divided into two sub periods, albeit pre crisis and post crisis. The results obtained are similar with a number of past literatures pointing to no long run relationship between stock price and exchange rate for both periods.
    Keywords: Stock price; exchange rate; Asian financial crisis; Cointegration.
    JEL: G14 F31
    Date: 2008–06–01
  2. By: Inomata, Satoshi
    Abstract: The paper investigates the possibility of constructing a new measurement for analysing international fragmentation of the production process. It asserts that the current usage of relevant data, whether the trade shares of parts and components or the index of Vertical Specialisation, is quite unsatisfactory for measuring the phenomenon, since they critically lack the overall perspective of the entire structure of production chains.  The new measurement is formulated such that it captures every aspect of the vertical sequence of production linkages. It is based on the input-output model of Average Propagation Lengths, recently developed by Eric Dietzenbacher and others, which show the average number of production stages that are passed through for an exogenous change in one industry to affect another. By applying this model to the data of the Asian International Input-Output Tables, the index is able to measure the international dimension of production sharing and division of labour in East Asia.
    Keywords: International fragmentation, Production chains, Input-output analysis, Average Propagation Lengths, Asian International Input-Output Tables, East Asia
    JEL: C67 C82 F02 F14 F15
    Date: 2008–10
  3. By: Katsushi Imai; Raghav Gaiha; Ganesh Thapa
    Date: 2008
  4. By: Timmermann, Martina
    Abstract: With North Korea going nuclear, tensions ever present in the Taiwan Strait, and growing posturing over territories thought to be rich in resources, the question of how lasting peace, order, stability and prosperity can be achieved in Northeast Asia has become increasingly important. Globalisation and China’s galloping economy have caused radically different economic growth rates in Northeast Asia, resulting in constant fluctuations in the balance of power among the nations in the region. With new emerging threats to security as well as threats posed by environmental degradation and disasters, the old concept of sovereign independence no longer offers satisfactory solutions for Northeast Asia. Instead, alternatives are needed that provide more plausible answers to Northeast Asia’s emerging challenges. In so doing, Institutionalizing Northeast Asia advances the notion of regional institutionalism as a counterweight to the principle of sovereignty, arguing that regional cooperation via regional institution-building is the right “recipe” for dealing with the growing intertwinement of global issues and developments with needs and interest at the regional and national levels, as well as the demand for supra-territorial policy responses to such issues as trade, finance, the environment, human rights and human security. The copyright of this article which is the introductory chapter of the book: Institutionalizing Northeast Asia: Regional Steps towards Global Governance, Tokyo: UNUP 2008, rests with United Nations University Press; for further information on the book and its 19 chapters on political economy, security, norms and identity, environment, human rights, migration and human security in Northeast Asia, go to: ionalizingNEAsia.html
    Keywords: institutionalism; regionalism; norms; identity; security: economy; trade; investment; finance; multilateralism; balance of power; sovereignty; energy; environment; human rights; human migration; human security; Northeast Asia; Korea; China; Japan; ASEAN+3; Russia; Shanghai Cooperation Organization; Six-Party Talks; ASEAN Charter
    JEL: F15 F5 O53 Y2
    Date: 2008–10–31
  5. By: Zhang, ZhongXiang
    Abstract: Asia has truly experienced spectacular economic growth over the past 15 years. However, this economic progress has come at a high cost. It has led to unprecedented environmental consequences. The ecological footprint shows that, despite the fact that one-fifth of the population in Asia still lives on less than US$ 1 per day (PPP-adjusted), the region is already living beyond its ecological carrying capacity. The region is facing a dilemma. On the one hand, continued economic growth is needed to alleviate the poverty of the two-thirds of the world’s poor living in this region. On the other hand, that economic growth will further place tremendous strains on the natural environment. In order to extricate itself from this difficult position, the region needs to shift the conventional pattern of “develop first and then treat the pollution” to a different trajectory of sustainable development. To that end, this paper examines a variety of policy responses at national, regional and international levels to deal with growing concerns about the environmental challenges in Asia in order to help to put the region on a more sustainable development path. In the context of national responses, special attention is paid to the following issues: coordination between the central and local governments, market-based environmental instruments and industrial policies, tougher emissions standards for mobile and stationary sources and for fuel quality, policies to promote energy efficiency and the use of clean energy and biofuels, the integration of environmental policies with economic and sectoral policies, and engagement of the private sector through e.g., ecolabelling, green government procurement, corporate ratings and disclosure programs, and drawing the support of financial institutions to promote improved corporate environmental performance. It is concluded that having the right policy mix, coupled with strengthened cooperation at national, local and regional levels, will ensure continuing economic growth in the region without compromising its limited ecological carrying capacity and environmental quality.
    Keywords: Energy policy; Market-based environmental instruments; Asia
    JEL: Q48 Q28 Q42 Q43 Q58
    Date: 2008–01
  6. By: Kueh, Jerome Swee-Hui; Puah, Chin-Hong; Wong, Chiew-Meu
    Abstract: Southeast Asia countries are encountering several challenges as they are moving towards the globalization and trade liberalization era. Due to that, government intervention is essential in ensuring that the economy is resilience against the severe implications of trade openness. Therefore, this study aims to examine the relationship between trade openness and government expenditure of ASEAN-4 countries using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag [ARDL] bounds testing approach that covers a sample period of annually data from 1974-2006. Empirical results indicate that there is an existence of a significant positive long-run linkage between trade openness and government expenditure of all the ASEAN-4 countries under study. This means that government intervention in an open economy is crucial as to cushion the risks associated with trade liberalization.
    Keywords: ARDL; ASEAN-4; openness; government expenditure
    JEL: H50 F10 O53 C22
    Date: 2008–11
  7. By: Mario Piacentini (University of Geneva)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the presence of a network externality which might explain the persistence of low schooling achievements among internal migrants. We test empirically whether young migrants schooling decisions are affected by the presence of covillagers at destination, using data on life-time histories of migration and education choices from a rural region of Thailand. Different modelling approaches are used to account for the self-selection of young migrants, for potential endogeneity of the network size, and for unobserved heterogeneity in individual preferences. The size of the migrant network is found to negatively affect the propensity of young migrants to pursue schooling while in the city. This finding suggests that policies seeking to minimise stratification in enclaves might have a socially multiplied impact on schooling participation, and, ultimately, affect the socio-economic mobility of the rural born.
    Keywords: education, networks, migration
    JEL: I21 L14 O15
    Date: 2008–10–27
  8. By: Felices, Guillermo (Bank of England); Orskaug, Bjorn-Erik (Bank of England)
    Abstract: This paper studies the determinants of capital flows defined as gross external bond and syndicated loan issuance to a group of emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1992. We follow the previous literature by estimating an explicit disequilibrium demand and supply model of capital flows using maximum likelihood techniques. We use the estimated supply and demand determinants to calculate time-varying probabilities of international supply-side rationing, estimating the model for the asset class as a whole. We then explore applications to individual EMEs including Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Korea, Mexico, Poland and Thailand using a longer time period than in previous work. For our selection of EMEs taken together, the main determinants of the supply of capital from the rest of the world are credit ratings, EME spreads, world growth and US high-yield spreads. On the demand side, the EME equity index has a positive effect on capital flows, while EME spreads and commodity prices have a negative one. The applications to individual countries show similar signs. Finally, we calculate the probability of capital crunch for EMEs in aggregate and for some countries individually.
    Keywords: Capital flows; disequilibrium; emerging markets; rationing.
    JEL: F32 F34 O19
    Date: 2008–11–24

This nep-sea issue is ©2009 by Kavita Iyengar. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.