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on South East Asia |
| By: | Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi (Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), Osaka University); Masakatsu Okubo (Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering,University of Tsukuba); Junji Shimada (School of Management, Aoyama Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper has measured the welfare cost, investigated the effects of and the recovery process of the 1997 Asian crisis, and evaluated the IMF-supported programs. The paper finds: (i) the ratios of ewhole costf to the consumption level of the hypothetical economy are large: 30% for Thailand, 50% for Indonesia, 36% for Korea, 18% for Malaysia and 39% for Hong Kong; (ii) the dynamic process of ecost at period tf quickly converges to 40% right after the crisis, but the costs for Indonesia and Hong Kong gradually increase towards 100%; (iii) the IMF-supported programs for Thailand, Indonesia and Korea have been implemented right after the cost hits peaks; (iv) the cost of the IMF-supported program was not expensive compared with the corresponding welfare cost of crisis. |
| Keywords: | dynamic welfare cost; time-varying model;1997 Asian crisis |
| JEL: | C32 C50 E32 E20 |
| Date: | 2007–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:0725&r=sea |
| By: | Prema-chandra Athukorala |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of China’s rapid integration into the global economy on export performance of its East Asian neighbours against the backdrop of ongoing changes in patterns of international production. Following a stage-setting overview of trends and patterns of China’s export performance since the early 1990s, it probes two key themes central to the current policy debate, namely China competition in third country markets and emerging patterns of East Asian exports to China. The statistical analysis places particular emphasis on the supply-side complementarities between China and its East Asian neighbours resulting from China’s rapid integration into regional production networks. The findings suggest that the fear of export crowding-out has been vastly exaggerated in the contemporary policy debate on the implications of China’s rise. |
| Keywords: | China, export performance, production fragmentation |
| JEL: | F14 F23 O53 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2007-10&r=sea |
| By: | Botezatu, Elena |
| Abstract: | The recent interest shown by the European Union towards the countries in South-east Asia, as well as the initiatives for setting up free trade areas in the region, come to confirm the uneasiness that portrays the situation at home, as well as the efforts that it set out to make in order to maintain its competitiveness on a global scale. Particularly, the attention that the EU has given to bi-regional cooperation, initiating talks for a free trade area with ASEAN, rather than with its member countries, strengthens the belief that the EU is currently seeking to consolidate its position in South-east Asia and to counter the increasing influence of China and Japan. |
| Keywords: | European Union; regional cooperation; competitiveness; free trade area |
| JEL: | F59 |
| Date: | 2007–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4946&r=sea |
| By: | Morris Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Special economic zones following the enormous success of China have been widely imitated. But it is to be entirely anticipated that the results would vary greatly. Earlier avatars of SEZs in the form of Foreign Trade Zones (FTZs) and Export Promotion Zones (EPZs) were important in the export led growth of east Asia especially South Korea. But more than SEZs or EPZs per se it is the pursuit of “export led growth policies” which underlie the success of exporting and hence of SEZs. SEZz / EPZs can be seen as a (not necessary) microeconomic and spatial initiative in the pursuit of ELG under rather special circumstances by China, and South Korea and Taiwan to more limited extent in their early phases of transformation. In other countries not pursuing ELG the success of SEZs/EPZs has been rather modest. The roles played by the SEZs/ EPZs etc whatever their original purpose were constrained and determined by the macroeconomic policies, trade policies, and regional alignments. There is little meaning in studying SEZs beyond their layout and design without reference to these broader trade and macroeconomic policies. Thus early pioneers like India could make little out of their EPZs since the policies are severely biased against exports. We characterise export led growth (ELG) as the strategy that has allowed the late twentieth century industrialisations, which is far from both import substitution (as conventionally understood) and laissez faire, and to be the simultaneous pursuit of both IS and EP. With this framework we are able to understand the role and evolution of SEZs in a wide variety of countries. These help us to explain and anticipate that unless the policy turns sharply to favour exports (more correctly tradables over non tradables) the success of Indian SEZs would be modest and nowhere near that registered in China. Following from our characterisation of Import Substitution, Export Led Growth and Laissez Faire we also bring out the nature and performance of “special zones” when these are promoted under the very same regimes. |
| Keywords: | Special Economic Zones, SEZ, trade-strategy, export, infrastructure, Export-Led-Growth, China, India, Macroeconomic policy, trade theory, monetary trade theory, industrial-location, FDI, Fiscal-incentives |
| JEL: | F01 |
| Date: | 2007–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2007-09-02&r=sea |
| By: | Komulainen, Tuomas (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines currency crisis theories and applies them in searching for the main causes of the Russian crisis. We first study the determination of the exchange rate and then the first and second generation theories on currency crisis and finally the recent theoretical discussions of the Asian crisis. The main reason for the Russian crisis was the long-standing federal budget deficit. During the last years the deficits were financed mainly via short-term domestic debt. This created expectations of government insolvency and central bank financing. Moreover, the Russian economy has its own basic weaknesses, which render the country incapable of growth and prone to crisis. The Asian crisis was a trigger for the Russian crisis. Lower prices for Russian export products, inadequate financial regulations and lack of information in emerging markets in general are factors explaining this contagion effect. But the main mistakes that led to the crisis were those of the Russians themselves - the federal budget deficits. Thus the repair work should also start from there. |
| Keywords: | currency crisis; Russia; budget; contagion |
| Date: | 2007–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:1999_001&r=sea |
| By: | Rasyad A Parinduri (Singapore Centre for Applied and Policy Economics (SCAPE) Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Yohanes E. Riyanto (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | Using dynamic panel data models, we examine the effect of capital requirement on banks’ behavior in Indonesia. We find inconclusive results. Some banks tend to comply with capital requirement: They increase their capital ratio when their CAR is lower than, or falling towards, the eight percent regulatory minimum. However, most of our results are statistically significant at 20-30% level of significance only. Moreover, our results are mostly driven by private domestic banks and heavily-undercapitalized banks that were closely monitored by regulator in the aftermath of the 1998 crisis. Whether, in normal circumstances, banks in developing countries like Indonesia comply with capital requirement, therefore, remains questionable. This implies that, if regulators in developing countries continue relying on capital regulation, they would also need to improve their supervision capacity, increase the transparency of financial reporting, and strengthen market monitoring of banks. |
| Keywords: | banking crisis, capital requirement, bank regulation, dynamic panel data |
| JEL: | C23 G21 G28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sca:scaewp:0712&r=sea |
| By: | E. Penot (UMR85 - Innovation - [CIRAD : UMR85]); F. Ruf (UMR85 - Innovation - [CIRAD : UMR85]) |
| Abstract: | A few decades ago rubber was one of the first tree crops to be characterized by a spectacular breakthrough, the production of new, highly productive clonal material. With regard to rubber, the adoption of clonal planting materials led to a spectacular improvement in labour-productivity and revenues. It requires also different cropping patterns during immature period. An increase in return to labour costs is usually the first priority of smallholders. As this adoption of clones by smallholders only started in the 1970s in Indonesia, this is an extremely important strategy which must be stressed before we begin to analyze the impact of the krismon (a contraction of “Krisis Monetar” in Indonesian or “monetary crisis”). With regard to rubber, there is clearly a dualism of seedlings and clonal material. This dualism is more important than with other tree crops. Rubber seedlings are often grown under a complex agroforestry system and nicknamed locally ‘jungle rubber’. Clonal rubber is generally grown in monoculture sometimes with intercrops during the first three years.“Even when computing the cost of the investment and the credit that has to be repaid, the net income per hectare and per labour day from a clonal plantation is at least 50% higher (sometimes 100%) than the income from a jungle rubber plantation” (Gouyon 1999, 31). What was the situation before krismon? Due to capital and information constraints, only 15% of the smallholders already had access to highly productive clonal material rubber in 1996. This percentage was achieved, first and foremost, through official projects. Then in the late 1990s, the “copying effect” started playing its role, however rather limited. More and more farmers were able to observe the advantages of clonal material. This led to a booming network of private nurseries that helped to accelerate the adoption of this material. This means that a relatively strong dynamism was observed before krismon. It also means that most clonal plantations are still young, which is important in terms of potential response to price changes (Chapter 1). However, when krismon arrived, around 85% of traditionnal rubber farmers still relied on ageing jungle rubber with limited productivity. How may krismon influence these ‘jungle rubber’ and ‘clonal’ farming systems? Is it going to accelerate or reduce the investment in rubber plantings? Is it going to help to accelerate the adoption of clones? In 1998, rubber farmers did not benefit from the spectacular windfall, which affected cocoa and coffee (Chapters 5-7). Can this be explained by the different performances of farming systems or by variations of the International market? Is there a direct relationship between the decline of global prices and the interference of the Asian crisis in Indonesian rubber supply and exports (Chapter 2)? Page 2 How did the monetary crisis affect the other dramatic changes faced by Indonesian rubber smallholders? In addition to the economic crisis, as in other regions of the country, the ecological crisis also struck Sumatra and Kalimantan in 1997-98. Huge fires destroyed millions of hectares of forests, fallows and crops, including rubber. Will both crisis reduce investment in clonal plantings? Eventually, regions such as West-Kalimantan were the theatre for grave social troubles related to conflicts between autochtons and some immigrants, especially spontaneous immigrants1. A lack of confidence in the country’s regime was evident well before the crisis. Last but not least, oil palm development looms in traditional rubber regions. Might it hamper the development of clonal rubber technology in Indonesia? Does the crisis encourage the adoption of oil palm at the expense of rubber? Does the crisis deepen the social imbalance between smallholders who already have access to clones and those who do not? To try to answer these questions , the paper is structured in 4 sections: 1 A brief overview of the rubber sector : the situation before krismon 2 Krismon and its impact on rubber smallholdings 3 The rubber crisis on the international market 4 A conclusion including the future for the rubber smallholder sector |
| Date: | 2007–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:hal-00172487_v1&r=sea |
| By: | Eric Penot (INNOVATION - Changement technique, apprentissage et coordination dans l'agriculture et l'agroalimentaire - [CIRAD : UMR85]) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this chapter is to describe changes in the Indonesian jungle rubber system from the angle of the production of innovation by farmers themselves (indigenous knowledge) and the process of integration of external technical innovations in an overall process of creation of innovation. In other words, the integration of indigenous knowledge at different stages of history with rubber has enabled, and continues to enable farmers to rely on the sustainable cropping and farming systems represented by agroforestry systems. |
| Keywords: | shifting agriculture ; complex agroforestry systems ; jungle rubber ; rubber ; adoption of innovations |
| Date: | 2007–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:hal-00173302_v1&r=sea |
| By: | Johannes Gräb; Michael Grimm |
| Abstract: | We propose a new methodology for comparing poverty over multiple periods across time and space that does not arbitrarily aggregate income over various years or rely on arbitrarily specified poverty lines or poverty indices. Following Duclos et al. (2006a), we use the multivariate stochastic dominance methodology to create dominance surfaces for different time spans. We elaborate the method first for the bidimensional case, using as dimensions income observed over two periods: one at the beginning and one at the end of a time span. Subsequently, we extend it to the case where incomes are observed over n-periods. We illustrate our approach by performing poverty comparisons using data for Indonesia and Peru. |
| Keywords: | Multiperiod Poverty, Poverty Dominance, Poverty Dynamics, Chronic Poverty |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp725&r=sea |
| By: | Hongbin Li (Chinese University of Hong Kong and Tsinghua University); Junsen Zhang (Chinese University of Hong Kong and IZA); Yi Zhu (Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | Testing the tradeoff between child quantity and quality within a family is complicated by the endogeneity of family size. Using data from the Chinese Population Census, this paper examines the effect of family size on child educational attainment in China. We find a negative correlation between family size and child outcome, even after we control for the birth order effect. We then instrument family size by the exogenous variation that is induced by a twin birth, and find a negative effect of family size on children’s education. We also find that the effect of family size is more evident in rural China, where the public education system is poor. Given that our estimates of the effect of twinning on non-twins at least provide the lower bound of the true effect of family size (Rosenzweig and Zhang, 2006), these findings suggest a quantity-quality tradeoff of children in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | quantity-quality tradeoff, twins, China |
| JEL: | J13 J18 J24 O10 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3012&r=sea |
| By: | S. Diaz-Novellon (CNEARC - Centre national de recherche en agronomie des régions chaudes - [SUPAGRO IRC]); E. Penot (UMR 85 - Innovation - [CIRAD : UMR85] - [CNEARC]); M. Arnaud (UMR 85 - Innovation - [CIRAD : UMR85] - [CNEARC]) |
| Abstract: | Since the introduction of rubber at the turn of the 20th century smallholders have developed an original complex agroforestry system called jungle rubber in which non selected young rubber trees (seedlings) are managed extensively alongside secondary forest re-growth. The issue of improving smallholder rubber productivity at affordable capital investments and levels of inputs while maintaining the environmental benefits of jungle rubber has been addressed by the Smallholder Rubber Agroforestry Project (SRAP: a joint project run by ICRAF, GAPKINDO and CIRAD). In 1995-1996, 27 trials (with a total of 100 plots) were set up in three provinces in Indonesia to assess the possibility of associating clonal rubber with agroforestry practices under smallholder conditions (Penot, 1997). Two RAS types were selected for this study: RAS n° 1 and n° 3. RAS n° 1 is basically improved jungle rubber using clonal planting material (see a description of RAS types in annexe 1). The rubber trees are in competition with spontaneous vegetation in the inter-row but results show that there are no negative consequences for rubber growth during the immature period. RAS n° 3 was designed for areas infested by Imperata cylindrica, with the establishment of shrubby leguminous cover crops and fast-growing tree species in the inter-rows with the aim of shading out weeds. The other type, RAS n° 2, is based on intercropping clonal rubber with various annual and perennial crops, including fruit and timber trees (Penot et al, 1994). In all cases, RAS have a planting density of 550 clonal rubber trees/ha and a variable number of associated fruit, timber or fast growing shade trees (from 92 to 256/ha). In addition to the RAS experimental plots, “RAS sendiri” (or “endogenous RAS”) are rubber agroforests improved by farmers without outside assistance. The district of Sanggau in the province of West Kalimantan was identified by SRAP as representative of traditional jungle-rubber-based local farming systems that have developed over the last 90 years. The district of Sanggau is located in the central area of the Kapuas river basin, between 1° N and 0°6’ S and 09°8’ W and 11°33’ E. The district covers 18 302 km2, i.e. 13 % of the province. The trial plots described in this study are located in the villages of Embaong, Engkayu, Kopar, and Trimulia (the last being in the transmigration area). Most soils in the province of West-Kalimantan are acrisoils associated with ferralitic soils. Such soils have relatively good physical characteristics but poor chemical value and become acid. Rubber is widely grown in this area as it can grow in poor soils. The landscape is dominated by logged-over forest, secondary forest and a mosaic of jungle rubber and fallow with secondary forest re-growth. Large scale logging activities took place from 1950s to the 1980s at the expense of primary forest. At present, forested areas are located in hilly or remote areas and are very limited in extent. Oil palm and Acacia mangium plantations developed exponentially in the 1990s increasing the conversion of degraded forest areas into Estates that cultivate perennial crops. The main objective of this study is to assess existing plant biodiversity in RAS systems compared to that of jungle rubber. The second objective is to review the current uses of certain plants and their market potential. |
| Date: | 2007–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:hal-00172480_v1&r=sea |
| By: | Steven Pennings; Rod Tyers |
| Abstract: | The 1990s appreciation of the US$ has been blamed on the “irrational exuberance” of investors in the US IT boom. A core of these investors appeared to believe that technology-related productivity growth (due, in part, to knowledge spill-over externalities) would raise the relative US rate of return over a sustained period. This paper introduces a two country, dynamic general equilibrium model with international financial capital mobility and trade to investigate the conditions under which a single technology shock could cause such a sustained change in capital flows. We find that a once-off productivity shock, whether in the presence of (small-medium) externalities or not, leads to capital inflow and a real appreciation in the short term but is followed in the long term by a stabilisation of the capital account and a net depreciation of the real exchange rate. For a single shock to trigger long-term growth in relative capital returns appears to require unrealistically large externalities. The presence of adaptive expectations can lead to persistence and cyclical behaviour in the real exchange rate and current account. |
| JEL: | F21 F31 F32 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:camaaa:2007-16&r=sea |
| By: | Eric Penot (INNOVATION - Changement technique, apprentissage et coordination dans l'agriculture et l'agroalimentaire - [CIRAD : UMR85]) |
| Abstract: | As with cocoa a combination of available land and centres with fairly dense population is a prerequisite for a boom. But in the case of rubber the boom has been far more progressive than that for cocoa due to 3 main factors. Firstly, Sumatra and Kalimantan islands were almost empty at the turn of the century with population density inferior to 5 inhabitants/km². It took time for migrants (mainly from neighbouring Java in the case of Sumatra) as well as indigenous population (local Dayak and Chinese migrants in Kalimantan) to conquest the vast central plains of Sumatra and Kalimantan. Secondly, however the demand was very strong and rubber prices very attractive, first planting have been physically limited by both distances and seeds availability. The main rubber cropping system has been the jungle rubber system based on the use of unselected seedlings. Seeds were collected in Estates, mainly located in North-Sumatra and West-Java, and then distributed or sold to farmers through networks of traders or missionaries. Another constraint was that seed production was limited to 1 month per year and seeds have to be planted within 4 weeks after harvest. Last, infrastructure and trade were not as developed in the first half of the century as they were in the second half when the cocoa boom occurred (in particular since the 1980’s). Rubber has been immediately seen by local farmers as a very promising crop mainly due to its ability to be combined with the secondary forest regrowth in a complex agroforestry system called jungle rubber (Penot 2001). With unselected rubber seedlings (at no cost), no inputs (no fertilisers nor herbicide ..) and a very limited labour requirement for planting after upland rice, jungle rubber is very easy to implement as it does profit directly from the “forest rent” (Ruf 1987). The lack of capital requirement fo establishment and the very progressive migrations enable us to define jungle rubber as a typical indigenous agroforestry. Jungle rubber being very close to secondary forest in terms of bio-mass and structure, one can consider that jungle rubber do maintain the forest rent and create a sustainable and permanent “agroforest rent “. These areas were inhabited by Malayu close to rivers and Kubus people in the primary forests in Sumatra, and by dayaks peoples in in hinterland when the coasts were populated with Malayu, Banjar or Javanese peoples in Kalimantan. Harvesting time may not be adapted to recommended planting periods for rubber as harvest and climatic conditions differ significantly between North and South-Sumatra due to their respective position around the Equator. Indonesia is now the second largest producer behind Thailand. |
| Date: | 2007–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:hal-00173496_v1&r=sea |
| By: | Paulo Tafner |
| Abstract: | In this paper we elaborate a detailed survey concerning the access rules to public pensions benefits across twenty European, Asian and American countries, which are then compared to the Brazilian system. This system has practically no constraint upon death pensions claims, what makes it one of the world?s most generous arrangements. In the case of retirement benefits, among the sample countries Brazil is the country with the laxest rules for scheduled retirement concessions. Unlike Brazil, all of them define a minimum age limit and most do not distinguish between genders or among social categories. Following this comparison, we empirically simulate the application of each country?s different rules to the Brazilian demographic pattern. We attest that in all of these cases there is either a reduction of beneficiaries, a cut in the value of the benefits, or both. Finally, we estimate the hypothetic case where we decreased the value of the benefit, but no exclusion of beneficiaries was made. Using that potentially saved amount, we estimated the impact on poverty and on income distribution of an alternative redistribution of that sum. The results indicate a fall in the level of poverty among children and teenagers and stability in the poverty level among the usual public pensions system beneficiaries. |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1264&r=sea |
| By: | Michael McKenzie; Olan T. Henry |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants and information content of short selling in the Hong Kong equity market. Using daily data on the volume of short selling in individual stocks, we find that dividend payments, company fundamentals, risk, option trading, the interest rate spread and past returns and short selling are all significant determinants of short selling. Further, higher short selling in the current period is associated with higher returns in the next period. Once short sellers reduce their activity in the market however, negative returns are expected to follow. |
| Keywords: | Short Selling, Equity Market Efficiency |
| JEL: | G12 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1001&r=sea |
| By: | Jie Zhang (MRG - School of Economics, The University of Queensland); Haoming Liu (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how donations respond to unexpected permanent changes in income and tax rates in a recursive dynamic model. The dynamic approach yields several interesting insights. If marginal tax rates are progressive, a permanent jump in a household’s income increases its consumption and donations in the short run, but has no effect in the long run. The permanent income elasticity of current donations is likely to exceed one. If the marginal tax rate is flat, the jump in income raises consumption and donations in both the short and the long run. A permanent marginal tax rate cut raises consumption and donations in the long run if marginal tax rates are progressive, while it reduces donations in the short run if it has little direct impact on tax payments. If the marginal tax rate is flat, a tax cut has a positive effect on consumption in both the short and the long run, but has an ambiguous effect on donations. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uqmrg6:16&r=sea |
| By: | Tzu-Han YANG; Yueh-Po LIAO |
| Abstract: | This paper traces the route of Taiwan's industrial restructuring from 1980 to 1999, during which period Taiwan switched from a capital inflowing country to a capital-outflowing one. By establishing an empirical model based on the idea of Vernon's product cycle theory, we construct a quantitative measurement of product turnover and product upgrading. Tests are applied to the electrical and electronic industry to see whether its product turnover and product upgrading has significantly slowed down in the 1990s. If so, we may conclude that the industrial hollowing-out may have appeared. The empirical results show that product turnover and product upgrading do not significantly deteriorate in 1990s though the performances of the sub-industries within the EE industry are largely differentiated in 1990s compared with that in 1980s. |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:07055&r=sea |
| By: | IIMI, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | The world is faced with considerable risk and uncertainty about climate c hange. Particular attention has been paid increasingly to hydropower generation in recent years because it is renewable energy. However, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to changes in global and regional climate. This paper aims to examine the possibility of applying a simple vector autoregressive model to forecast future hydrological series and evaluate the resulting impact on hydropower projects. Three projects are considered - in India, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. The results are still tentative in terms of both methodology and implications; but the analysis shows that the calibrated dynamic forecasts of hydrological series are much different from the conventional reference points in the 90 percent dependable year. The paper also finds that hydrological discharges tend to increase with rainfall and decrease with temperature. The rainy season would likely have higher water levels, but in the lean season water resources would become even more limited. The amount of energy generated would be affected to a certain extent, but the project viability may not change so much. Comparing the three cases, it is suggested that having larger installed capacity and some storage capacity might be useful to accommodate future hydrological series and seasonality. A broader assessment will be called for at the project preparation stage. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Hydro Power,Energy Production and Transportation,Water and Energy,Global Environment Facility |
| Date: | 2007–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4344&r=sea |