nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2007‒08‒27
23 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Industrial Networks between China and the Countries of the Asia-Pacific Region By Kuwamori, Hiroshi; Okamoto, Nobuhiro
  3. The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration By Yin-wong Cheung; Menzie D. Chinn; Eiji Fujii
  4. China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate By Rod Tyers; Jane Golley; Bu Yongxiang; Ian Bain
  5. Projected Economic Growth in China and India: The Role of Demographic Change By Rod Tyers; Jane Golley; Ian Bain
  6. Currency Appreciation and Current Account Adjustment By Michael B. Devereux; Hans Genberg
  7. An emerging agricultural problem in high-performing Asian economies By Hayami, Yujiro
  8. Specialization and adjustment during the growth of China and India : the Latin American experience By Rubiano, Eliana; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Lederman, Daniel
  9. Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course? By Hans Genberg
  10. The Global Economic Implications of Freer Skilled Migration By Rod Tyers; Iain Bain; Jahnvi Vedi
  11. The growth of China and India in world trade : opportunity or threat for Latin America and the Caribbean? By Soloaga, Isidro; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Lederman, Daniel
  12. Industrial Policy and Growth By Helen Shapiro
  14. Composite Leading Indicators and Growth Cycles in Major OECD Non-Member Economies and recently new OECD Members Countries By Ronny Nilsson
  15. The Determinants of Provincial Growth in Indonesia During 1983-2003 By Yogi Vidyattama
  16. Outsourcing and International Production of a Multinational: A Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence from Toyota, Thailand By Witada Anukoonwattaka
  17. Are Financial Sector Policies Effective in Deeping the Malaysian Financial System By James B. Ang
  18. Order Imbalance and the Pricing of Index Futures By Joseph K.W. Fung
  19. Publicness and Taken-for-granted Knowledge: A Case Study of Communal Land Formation in Rural Thailand By Shigetomi, Shin'ichi
  20. Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment: Indonesian Manufacturing Industry’s Experience 1975-2000 By Della Temenggung
  22. Robust Multiperiod Poverty Comparisons By Johannes Gräb; Michael Grimm
  23. European Regional Science: Between Economy of Culture and Economy of Catastrophes (Review of the ERSA 2005 Amsterdam Congress Reports) By Alexander Pelyasov

  1. By: Kuwamori, Hiroshi; Okamoto, Nobuhiro
    Abstract: This paper investigates the changes in the structures of industrial networks that have occurred in the Asia-Pacific region in line with the rapid growth of the Chinese economy. Analyses using international input-output tables revealed that during the 1990s, there was a significant increase in the dependence of Asian countries’ manufacturing industries, such as textiles and electronics, on China’s industries, though industries in Japan and the United States remain important as the main suppliers of industries in Asian countries.
    Keywords: Input-output analysis, Backward linkage, Industrial network, Asia, China, Japan, United States, Input-output tables, Manufacturing industries
    JEL: D57 R15
    Date: 2007–06
  2. By: Puah, Chin-Hong; Kueh, Jerome Swee-Hui; Lau, Evan
    Abstract: The relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Gross Domestic Products (GDP) had become the centre piece of recent researches in identifying the short run and long run implications between the two variables. Using the hypotheses of FDI led GDP and GDP led FDI as theoretical framework, this study intends to analyze the implications of the rise of China towards the ASEAN-5 countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand from the perspective of FDI and GDP. The cointegration and vector error correlation estimate test results showed that there is a significant positive long run relationship between FDI of China and GDP of ASEAN-5. However, we failed to detect any short run causal relationship among the variables under study.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Gross Domestic Product; ASEAN-5; China
    JEL: F10
    Date: 2007–08–20
  3. By: Yin-wong Cheung (University of California, Santa Cruz); Menzie D. Chinn (University of Wisconsin, Madison and NBER); Eiji Fujii (University of Tsukuba)
    Abstract: The debate on renminbi (RMB) revaluation has not subsided, despite the policy change announced by the Chinese authorities in July 2005. In this chapter, we show that the evidence of RMB undervaluation may not be as strong as it appears. Specifically, depending on the method used, the evidence ranges from slight overvaluation to undervaluation. Even in the case of undervaluation, the results are not significant in the statistical sense. We also note that China is playing an important economic role in Asia and has established a complex production and trade network with its neighboring economies, which complicates the calculation of the equilibrium exchange rate. Thus, a change in Chinese exchange rate policy in response to demands from foreign countries and short-run considerations may have undesirable effects on the economies of China and the Asian region.
    Keywords: exchange rate policy, regional integration, market integration, purchasing power parity, Balassa-Samuelson, currency misalignment.
    JEL: F31 F41
    Date: 2006–12
  4. By: Rod Tyers; Jane Golley; Bu Yongxiang; Ian Bain
    Abstract: The recent influx of financial capital to China implies expectations of continued real appreciation and, indeed, rapid expansion had previously led to real appreciations elsewhere in East Asia. In a world of open economies and differentiated traded goods, however, development-related productivity and endowment growth shocks tend to cause real depreciations, the principal exception being the Balassa case where non-traded service sectors are large and productivity shocks are restricted to traded sectors. China is a special case amongst developing countries in that its labour force is likely to decline in future and this will place upward pressure on real wages and its real exchange rate. This paper assesses the magnitudes of the various links between China’s growth performance and its real exchange rate using an adaptation of the GTAP-Dynamic global economic model in which a full demographic sub-model is incorporated. A baseline “business as usual” simulation is constructed to 2030, wherein China’s growth rate slows considerably due to ageing and slower labour force growth. Comparator simulations are then constructed for cases in which fertility policy is changed, sectoral factor productivity is higher and financial reform reduces the investment interest premium. China’s real exchange rate realignments are examined in each case, the results suggesting the current appreciating trend may be temporary, with depreciating forces appearing to dominate in the long term.
    JEL: C53 C68 E27 F21 F43 F47 J11 O11
    Date: 2006–11
  5. By: Rod Tyers; Jane Golley; Ian Bain
    Abstract: Within the next decade, China’s labour force will begin to contract, while that of India will expand faster than its population. Relative labour abundance will bring higher capital returns and an increasing share of global FDI to India. Yet China may relax its One Child Policy further and India’s fertility could follow the pattern elsewhere in Asia and decline faster than expected. These linkages are explored using a global demographic sub-model that is integrated with an adaptation of the GTAP-Dynamic global economic model in which regional households are disaggregated by age and gender. Even with a two-child-policy, China’s growth is projected to slow in future with India becoming the fastest growing economy in the world on the strength of its continued population expansion. While GDP depends positively on fertility and per capita income negatively in both countries, the price of more GDP growth in terms of lost per capita income is lower in China than in India, a result that depends critically on India’s initially higher fertility, its higher youth dependency and the age-gender pattern of its participation rates. India therefore has considerably more to gain, at least in per capita terms, from further reducing its fertility
    JEL: C68 E27 F43 J11 O53
    Date: 2007–11
  6. By: Michael B. Devereux (University of British Columbia); Hans Genberg (Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)
    Abstract: A central aspect of the recent debate on global imbalances and the US current account deficit is the role of the exchange rate peg being followed by China and other Asian economies. While one view has stressed the need for Asian currency appreciation, another focuses on the importance of fiscal adjustment and more generally adjustment in relative savings rates in the US and Asian economies. This paper develops a simple two-region open economy macroeconomic model to analyze the alternative impacts of currency appreciation and fiscal adjustment on the current account. We stress a number of structural features of emerging Asian economies that may make currency appreciation an ineffective means of current account adjustment relative to fiscal policy changes. In addition, we note that there may be a welfare conflict between regions on the best way to achieve adjustment.
    Keywords: Current Account, Currency Appreciation
    JEL: E52 E58 F41
    Date: 2006–12
  7. By: Hayami, Yujiro
    Abstract: Policies to tax farmers in low-income countries and policies to subsidize them in high-income countries have been identified as a major source of the disequilibrium of world agriculture. Recently, as many high-performing economies in Asia advanced from the low-income to the middle-income stage through successful industrialization, they have been confronted with the problem of a widening income gap between farm and non-farm workers corresponding to rapid shifts in comparative advantage from agriculture to manufacturing. In order to prevent this disparity from culminating in serious social and po litical instability, policies have been reoriented toward supporting the income of farmers. At the same time, governments in middle-income countries must continue to secure low-cost food for the urban poor who are still large in number. The need to achieve the two conflicting goals under the still weak fiscal capacity of governments tends to make agricultural policies in the middle-income stage tinkering and ineffective. Greater research inputs in this area are called for in order to prevent the growth momentum of high-performing economies in Asia from being disrupted by political crises.
    Keywords: Economic Theory & Research,Rural Poverty Reduction,,Emerging Markets,Labor Policies
    Date: 2007–08–01
  8. By: Rubiano, Eliana; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Lederman, Daniel
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which the growth of China and India in world markets is affecting the patterns of trade specialization in Latin American economies. The authors construct Vollrath ' s measure of revealed comparative advantage by 3-digit ISIC sector, country, and year. This measure accounts for both imports and exports. The empirical analyses explore the correlation between the revealed comparative advantage of Latin America and the two Asian economies. Econometric estimates suggest that the specialization pattern of Latin A-with the exception of Mexico-has been moving in opposite direction of the trade specialization pattern of China and India. Labor-intensive sectors (both unskilled and skilled) probably have been negatively affected by the growing presence of China and India in world markets, while natural resource and scientific knowledge intensive sectors have probably benefited from China and India ' s growth since 1990.
    Keywords: Free Trade,Economic Theory & Research,Trade Policy,Water and Industry,Agricultural Knowledge & Information Systems
    Date: 2007–08–01
  9. By: Hans Genberg (Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)
    Abstract: Financial integration in East Asia is actively being pursued and will in due course lead to substantial mobility of capital between economies in the region. Plans for monetary cooperation as a prelude to monetary integration and ultimately monetary unification are also proposed. These plans often suggest that central banks should adopt some form of common exchange rate policy in the transition period towards full monetary union. This paper argues that this is a dangerous path in the context of highly integrated financial markets. An alternative approach is proposed where independent central banks coordinate their monetary policies through the adoption of common objectives and by building an appropriate institutional framework. When this coordination process has progressed to the point where interest rate developments are similar across the region, and if in the meantime the required institutional infrastructure has been build, the next step towards monetary unification can be taken among those central banks that so desire. The claim is that this transition path is likely to be robust and will limit the risk of currency crises.
    Date: 2006–11
  10. By: Rod Tyers; Iain Bain; Jahnvi Vedi
    Abstract: One consequence of the trade and technology driven increases in skill premia in the older industrial regions since the 1980s has been a perceived “skill shortage” in those regions, along with freer migration of skilled and professional workers from developing regions. While skilled migration flows remain too small to have large short-run effects on labour markets, a further opening to skilled migrants by the industrialised North could see substantial changes in labour markets and overall growth performance. The links between demographic change, migration flows and economic growth are here explored using a new demographic sub-model that is integrated with an adaptation of the GTAP-Dynamic global economic model in which regional households are disaggregated by age and gender. Skilled migration flows are assumed to be motivated by real wage differences to an extent that is variably constrained by immigration policies. A uniform relaxation of these constraints has most effect on labour markets in the traditional migrant destinations, Australia, Western Europe and North America, where it restrains the skill premium and substantially enhances GDP growth. Skill premia are raised, however, in regions of origin, and particularly in South Asia, although the extent of this is shown to depend sensitively on the responsiveness of skill acquisition to regional skill premia.
    Keywords: Demographic change, skilled migration, labour markets and economic growth
    Date: 2007–06
  11. By: Soloaga, Isidro; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Lederman, Daniel
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between the growth of China and India in world merchandise trade and Latin American and Caribbean commercial flows from two perspectives. First, the authors focus on the opportunity that China and India ' s markets have offered Latin American and Caribbean exporters during 2000-2004. Second, empirical analyses examine the partial correlation between Chinese and Indian bilateral trade flows and Latin American and Caribbean trade with third markets. Both analyses rely on the gravity model of international trade. Econometric estimations that control for the systematic correlation between expected bilateral trade volumes and the size of their regression errors, as well as importer and exporter fixed effects and year effects, provide consistent estimates of the relevant parameters for different groups of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results suggest that the growth of the two Asian markets has produced large opportunities for Latin American and Caribbean exporters, which nevertheless have not been fully exploited. The evidence concerning the effects of Chinese and Indian trade with third markets is not robust, but there is little evidence of negative effects on Latin American and Caribbean exports of non-fuel merchandise. In general, China ' s and to a large extent India ' s growing presence in world trade has been good news for Latin America and the Caribbean, but some of the potential benefits remain unexploited.
    Keywords: Economic Theory & Research,Free Trade,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Trade Policy,Markets and Market Access
    Date: 2007–08–01
  12. By: Helen Shapiro
    Abstract: The paper highlights how the rationales and instruments of industrial policy have changed since the 1960s. It finds that theories of industrialization have come full circle, as many of the assumptions behind the market failure paradigm have made a comeback. The policy implications of these theories, however, have not been similarly resurrected. It makes an explicit comparison between the strategies of East Asia and Latin America, and reviews the explanations for their divergent performance. It identifies a “back to the future” quality of Latin America’s situation, pointing to the region’s balance of payments constraint and dependence on commodity-like industrial products.
    Keywords: Industrial Policy, Competitiveness, East Asia, Latin America
    JEL: L52 L53 O14 O38 O53 O54 F13
    Date: 2007–08
  13. By: Kokko , Ari (European Institute of Japanese Studies); Mitlid, Kerstin (Central Bank of Sweden); Wallgren, Arvid (Center for Business and Policy Studies)
    Abstract: The main macroeconomic challenges at the early stages of Vietnam¡¯s economic reforms were related to stability and growth. The main achievements of Doi Moi are also related to the success in meeting these two challenges: Vietnam has managed to combine high growth with reasonable price stability since the early 1990s. However, meeting these challenges has become more difficult over time as new challenges have emerged. In the mid-1990s, economic structure and external balance entered the policy debate. In the late 1990s, the Asian crisis created further problems. In recent years, issues related to social and regional development gaps and investment quality have become important policy objectives. At the same time, it is clear that the instruments for economic policy making have changed. While the challenges of the early 1990s could be handled with various direct interventions like credit ceilings and quantitative trade restrictions, indirect instruments for macroeconomic management are gradually becoming more important. For instance, the choice of exchange rate regime is becoming much more important than in the past. This paper summarizes Vietnam¡¯s macroeconomic development, and illustrates some of the alternative approaches to macroeconomic management in an increasingly internationalized and deregulated environment by recounting some experiences from Swedish macroeconomic management during the past three decades.
    Keywords: Vietnam; internationalization; macroeconomic management; growth; stability
    JEL: E60 F40 O11
    Date: 2007–06–01
  14. By: Ronny Nilsson
    Abstract: The OECD developed a System of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) for its Member Countries in the early 1980?s based on the ?growth cycle? approach and up to 2006 the Organisation compiled composite leading indicators for 23 of the 30 Member countries. Country coverage has now been expanded to include recently new OECD member countries (Korea, New Zealand1, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovak Republic) and the major six OECD non-member economies (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian Federation and South Africa) monitored by the organization in the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators. The expansion of the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators to include the new CLIs for the six recently new OECD member countries has implications for the calculation of the OECD total area and the OECD Europe area aggregates. In addition, the inclusion of the new CLIs for all of above twelve countries opens the possibility to calculate new area aggregates such as Major Asian economies, Eastern Europe including or excluding the Russian Federation and a World proxy to give information on the overall global development. The importance of such new regional or area aggregates is of course very much dependent on the existence of different cyclical patterns between these new aggregates and the established ones. However, the calculation of a World proxy aggregate is important in itself in so far that it will represent global development better than the OECD total area aggregate. <BR>L'OCDE a développé un système d'indicateurs composites avancés (CLIs) pour ses pays membres au début des années 80 basé sur l'approche du cycle de croissance. Jusqu'en 2006, l'Organisation a compilé ces indicateurs composites avancés pour 23 de ses 30 pays membres. La couverture géographique s?est agrandie et tient compte maintenant des pays nouvellement membres de l'Organisation (la Corée, la Nouvelle Zélande, la République tchèque, la Hongrie, la Pologne et la République slovaque). Les six principales économies non membres de l'OCDE (le Brésil, la Chine, l'Inde, l'Indonésie, la Fédération de Russie et l'Afrique du Sud) ont été également introduites dans le système des indicateurs composites avancés de l'OCDE. L'ouverture des six nouveaux pays membres au système des indicateurs composites avancés de l'OCDE a eu des implications quant au calcul des agrégats de la zone OCDE total et de la zone OCDE Europe. De plus, l'inclusion de ces indicateurs composites avancés pour les 12 nouveaux pays su mentionnés ouvre la possibilité au calcul de nouveaux agrégats tels que l'Asie des 5 grands, l?Europe de l'Est avec ou sans la Fédération de Russie et une zone monde approximatif qui donnerait une information sur le développement global total. L'importance de tels nouveaux agrégats régionaux ou totaux dépend beaucoup de l'existence de schémas cycliques différents entre ces nouveaux agrégats et ceux déjà établis. Cependant, le calcul d'un agrégat monde approximatif est très important en soit car il représentera mieux le développement global que ne le faisait l'agrégat de la zone OCDE total.
    Date: 2006–12–11
  15. By: Yogi Vidyattama
    Abstract: The discussion of income disparity has emphasized the need for research in finding the growth determinant. This chapter will investigate the determinants of provincial growth of income per capita. It uses the regional panel data within a country, namely the 1983–2003 Indonesian provincial data sets. This will bring up some issues that will differentiate the application in sub national to cross country application and try to address those issues. To achieve this goal, this study will utilise GMM dynamic panel estimation and the reduced form of the Solow-Swan growth model in order to estimate a regional growth model. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita with and without mining sector value added as well as household consumption per capita are the proxies of income in this studies. The results are as follows. The overall investment (gross fixed capital formation) is estimated to have an insignificant impact on the growth of all income proxies. The average year of schooling has a different impact on different proxies of income. There are negative impacts on growth from local government spending on GDP per capita and GDP non mining per capita. The impact of transportation infrastructure in term of roads per capita is significantly positive on GDP per capita growth, and weakly significantly positive on household expenditure. The ratio of trade to GDP, as a proxy of openness, is the only significant growth determinant of all income proxies. The result from institutional variable is positively significant for GDP per capita but not significant for GDP non mining and household consumption. On the other hand, financial institutions variable is only significant in determining GDP non mining growth.
    Date: 2007–06
  16. By: Witada Anukoonwattaka
    Abstract: A stylised partial equilibrium model of an MNC is developed. The model incorporates key aspects of outsourcing in a world of falling trade costs. The multinational, with firm-specific capital operates in two countries that differ in factor prices; it produces final goods with firm specific capital but can source multiple intermediate goods internally from each subsidiary (produced with firm-specific capital and labour), or outsource them from domestic or foreign suppliers. There is a potential trade off between scale of final good production and scope of in-house component production. Trade liberalization can affect both country and organization choices of the firm’s component sourcing and final-good production. We also use a previously unused data set on component trade of Toyota in Southeast Asia to conduct an empirical investigation informed by the model insights.
    Keywords: Intra-firm Trade, Trade in intermediate inputs, direct foreign investment, multinational corporations and outsourcing
    Date: 2007–06
  17. By: James B. Ang
    Abstract: This paper provides an empirical assessment of the effects of financial sector policies on development of the financial system in Malaysia over the period 1959-2005. The technique of principal component analysis is used to construct a summary measure of interest rate policies in order to account for the joint influence of various interest rate controls imposed on the Malaysian financial system. The results show that economic development, interest rate controls and capital liquidity requirements positively affect the level of financial development. However, higher statutory reserve requirements and the presence of directed credit programs appear to be harmful for development of the Malaysian financial system. The results provide some support to the argument that some form of financial restraints may help promote financial development.
    Keywords: Financial development, financial liberalization, Malaysia
    JEL: E44 E58 O16 O53
    Date: 2007–06
  18. By: Joseph K.W. Fung (Hong Kong Baptist University)
    Abstract: This study examines whether the direction and magnitude of the aggregate order-imbalance of the index stocks can explain the arbitrage spread between index futures and the underlying cash index. The data are for the Asian financial crisis period and hence entail wide variations in order imbalance and the index-futures basis. The analysis controls for realistic trading costs and actual dividend payments. The results indicate that the arbitrage spread is positively related to the aggregate order imbalance in the underlying index stocks; negative order-imbalance has a stronger impact than positive order imbalance. Violations of the upper no-arbitrage bound are related to positive order imbalance and violations of the lower no-arbitrage bound are related to negative order imbalance. Asymmetric response times to negative and positive spreads can be attributed to the difficulty, cost, and risk of short stock arbitrage when the futures is below its no-arbitrage value. The significant relationship between order imbalance and arbitrage spread confirm that index arbitrageurs are important providers of liquidity in the futures market when the stock market is in disequilibrium.
    Date: 2006–10
  19. By: Shigetomi, Shin'ichi
    Abstract: The lack of public-mindedness can cause problems in the social order of people’s daily lives, such as the tragedy of the commons and the problem of free riders. Some scholars such as Habermas assert that communicative rationality is the solution, expecting that individuals will communicate with each other to reach a consensus without being bounded by aspects of social background. Other scholars advocate the revitalization of traditional community culture. These arguments, however, are not based on reality. By using the case of communal land formation in rural Thailand, the author shows that collective action is neither a revival of tradition nor a result of communication free from social constraints. Rather, cooperation emerges because the people rationally respond to their present needs and have built, through daily social interactions, taken-for-granted knowledge about how they should behave for cooperation.
    Keywords: Local organization, Rural development, Thailand, Public sphere, Community forest, Communal land, Community, Forest
    JEL: O18 Q15 Q23 Z13
    Date: 2007–06
  20. By: Della Temenggung
    Abstract: In recent decades, foreign direct investment (FDI) played an important role in achieving economic growth and development especially for developing countries. FDI bring capital and introduced new technology. Moreover, the new technology can also spill over to the local firms in the host country. For this reason, FDI often considered as the most significant channel for technology transfer. However, the empirical studies provide mixed evidence on the role of foreign investment in generating technology transfer to local firms. This paper attempts to provide some evidence to help reconcile the difference in empirical evidence by examining Indonesian manufacturing industries’ experienced from 1975-2000. This would provide an opportunity to examine the effect of host country economic development and policy environment to the technology spillovers process. In general, the result found positive and significant productivity spillovers in Indonesian manufacturing industry for the whole period. Interestingly, the estimation result for each economic episodes support the hypothesis on the effect of local firm absorptive capacity and host country economic policy. We found negative and significant spillovers during the pre-liberalization period (1975-1986) and found positive and significant spillovers in the post-liberalization period (1987-2000). This study also found that the spillovers effect is different between each 2-digit ISIC industry, proving that the sectoral characteristics do affect the local firm ability to learn and adopt new technology.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment, Productivity spillovers, Economic Policy, Manufacturing
    JEL: F23 O30 L60
    Date: 2007–06
  21. By: Syed Adnan Haider Ali Shah Bukhari, Adnan; Liaqat Ali, Liaqat; Mahpara Sadaqat, Mahpara
    Abstract: Although the investment–growth relationship in the NIEs has been studied rather extensively, the casual connection between public capital and economic growth has not yet been fully explored. This paper makes a novel attempt to study the interactions among these macroeconomic variables with the help of 1971-2000 heterogeneous dynamic panel data from Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. The premise of this study is that public spending may contribute to economic growth in different ways. We explore this using a variety of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that both public and private investment and public consumption have a long-term dynamic impact on economic growth in all the countries of our sample and in a panel of sample countries. The pair-wise analysis shows bidirectional causality between public investment and economic growth, and the homogeneous non-causality hypothesis suggests that non-causality results are completely homogeneous in a small sample of these mentioned countries.
    Keywords: Public investment; economic growth; panel unit root test; panel data
    JEL: E62 C32 H54
    Date: 2006–11–05
  22. By: Johannes Gräb (University of Goettingen); Michael Grimm (University of Göttingen)
    Abstract: We propose a new methodology for comparing poverty over multiple periods across time and space that does not arbitrarily aggregate income over various years or rely on arbitrarily specified poverty lines or poverty indices. Following Duclos et al. (2006a), we use the multivariate stochastic dominance methodology to create dominance surfaces for different time spans. We elaborate the method first for the bidimensional case, using as dimensions income observed over two periods: one at the beginning and one at the end of a time span. Subsequently, we extend it to the case where incomes are observed over n-periods. We illustrate our approach by performing poverty comparisons using data for Indonesia and Peru.
    Date: 2007–07–27
  23. By: Alexander Pelyasov
    Abstract: ERSA Congress can be seen as laboratory of ideas with broad representation not only European, but also scientists from US, Japan, Korea, Brazil, African and Asian countries. With very high speed new thoughts and phenomena from the European regional scientific community appear on the stages of the ERSA annual Congresses. Three new features were characteristic for the 2005 ERSA Congress in comparison with the previous ones. First, special focus on the factors of density in the regional development. That was not surprising as the meeting was held in the city of Amsterdam with the highest density in Europe where land and space are scarce goods. Second, integrative tendencies in attempt to use natural factors to explain traditional phenomena of the regional science. Issues of land and water management coincide with economic growth and regional development in many reports. Third, for the first time theme of networks and network society was embedded in many sections of the Congress and in the very title of the Congress itself. All these aspects as participants demonstrated could be positive creative factors increasing cultural assets of the European regions, efficiency of the knowledge transfer, leisure activities; or negative as the source of disaster and risk for human beings. Density factors (lack of people or lack of space?) divide European regional science into two sciences – urban for the populated regions and regional for the territories scarcely populated with very different themes, methods and tools of research. Housing markets, urban sprawl and commuting patterns are popular topics in the first case; labour markets and human capital in the second case. New Economic Geography models work smoothly in the first regions but are inappropriate in the second. Competition is harder in the labour markets of the populated regions but is softer in the regions with scattered population where it is substituted by the forces of cooperation. Contemporary regional society can be sustainable only as network society. In the reports networks were examined on different levels: a) as transportation networks in the investment national or interregional projects; b) as policentricity urban structures replacing Cristaller’s hierarchy of central places; c) as public-public, public-private partnerships combining public and private stakeholders in the decision-making process. Transition of the European regions from the industrial to network/service has begun 25 years ago. Position of the concrete region on this route determines clearly the type and intensity of its problem and research agenda. The more advanced is the region or nation on this route the more often terms like “reinventâ€, “rethinkâ€, “revisited†are used in the scientific community. Rediscovery of the old concepts, definitions, essence (as Amsterdam Congress demonstrated) is very creative and challenging process of the post-industrial regional science.
    Date: 2006–08

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