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on South East Asia |
| By: | Dollar, David |
| Abstract: | The " rise of Asia " is something of a myth. During 1990-2005 China accounted for 28 percent of global growth, measured at purchasing power parity (PPP). India accounted for 9 percent. The rest of developing Asia, with nearly a billion people, accounted for only 7 percent, the same as Latin America. Hence there is no general success of Asian developing economies. China has grown better than its developing neighbors because it started its reform with a better base of human capital, has been more o pen to foreign trade and investment, and created good investment climates in coastal cities. China ' s success changes the equation going forward: its wages are now two to three times higher than in the populous Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Vietnam), and China will become an ever-larger importer of natural resource and labor-intensive products. Developing countries need to become more open and improve their investment climates to benefit from these opportunities. China itself faces new challenges that could hamper its further development: unsustainable trade imbalance with the United States, energy and water scarcity and unsustainable use of natural resources, and growing inequality and social tension. To address the first two of these challenges, good cooperation between China and the United States is essential. The author concludes that we are more likely to be facing a " multi-polar century, " than an Asian century. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,Population Policies,Energy Production and Transportation,Pro-Poor Growth and Inequality,Trade and Regional Integration |
| Date: | 2007–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4174&r=sea |
| By: | Garcia-Herrero, Alicia (BOFIT); Koivu, Tuuli (http://www.bof.fi/bofit) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows empirically that China’s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi, although the size of the surplus is such that exchange rate policy alone will be unable to address the imbalance. One of the main reasons why the reduction in the trade surplus is limited is that Chinese imports are reduced with a real appreciation of the renminbi. By estimating bilateral import equations, we find that it is imports from other Southeast Asian countries which fall. This result reflects the vertical integration of Southeast Asia with China through the 'Asian production network'. We find, in turn, that imports from Germany – which serve China’s domestic demand – behave as one would expect, ie they increase with renminbi real appreciation. All in all, our results raise concerns on the impact of renminbi appreciation on Southeast Asia even if regional currencies do not follow the renminbi’s upward trajectory. |
| Keywords: | China; trade; exports; real exchange rate |
| JEL: | F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2007–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2007_006&r=sea |
| By: | Nagendra Shrestha |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to reveal the vertical specialization dependence relationship in East Asian countries using the multi country vertical specialization dependence modeling based on the Asian International Input-Output data. Use of multi country model allows us to study the country-wise vertical specialization association that is not possible with the single country model. More over, the multi country vertical specialization dependence modeling, a new approach to study the vertical specialization (imported intermediate goods to produce the export goods), enables us to explain the dependence on domestic intermediate goods and the dependence on other countries as well. The results show that the vertical specialization dependence on total import and group of USA, EU and ROW is high in general among the East Asian countries. However, it is also important to note that the vertical specialization dependence on 9 Asian countries and Hong Kong is relatively high as compared to non-regional countries. Such a situation of vertical specialization dependence in East Asia indicates the strong relationship (in terms of vertical specialization) among the Asian countries. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Input-Output analysis, Vertical specialization, East Asia |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hst:hstdps:d06-208&r=sea |
| By: | Patrizia Tumbarello |
| Abstract: | Is the recent proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in Asia a healthy development, or runs the risk of turning into an unmanageable "noodle bowl" in the future? The goal of this paper is to shed some light on this question. The results show that membership in the Asian RTAs considered in this study have not, to date, occurred at the expense of trade with nonmembers, as most Asian countries' integration with the global economy preceded regional integration. However, looking forward, given their discriminatory nature, a proliferation of RTAs, which is not accompanied by continuing unilateral and multilateral liberalization, could run the risk of leading to costly trade diversion. |
| Keywords: | Regional trade agreements , gravity model , trade diversion , Asia , Mekong countries , panel data , Trade , Asia , Cambodia , Lao People's Democratic Republic , Vietnam , |
| Date: | 2007–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/53&r=sea |
| By: | Neil McCulloch (World Bank Office Jakarta); Julian Weisbrod (University of Goettingen); C. Peter Timmer (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy, whether they are realised in farming, rural non-farm enterprises or via rural-urban migration. We use cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board (BPS) for 1993 and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most successful over this period. Our findings suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural non-farm enterprises is an important route out of rural poverty, but that most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining rural and agricultural. Thus changes in agricultural prices, wages and productivity still play a critical role in moving people out of poverty. |
| Keywords: | Poverty dynamics, non-farm sector, micro-growth regression |
| JEL: | O12 O13 O18 O53 R11 |
| Date: | 2007–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:vwldps:131&r=sea |
| By: | McCulloch, Neil; Weisbrod, Julian; Timmer, C. Peter |
| Abstract: | Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy, whether they are realized in farming, in rural nonfarm enterprises, or by way of rural-urban migration. The authors use cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board for 1993 and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most successful over this period. The findings suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural nonfarm enterprises is an important route out of rur al poverty, but that most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining rural and agricultural. So changes in agricultural prices, wages, and productivity still play a critical role in moving people out of poverty. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Pro-Poor Growth and Inequality,Economic Theory & Research |
| Date: | 2007–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4173&r=sea |
| By: | Wajih Khallouli (Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales de Tunis - [Université de Tunis]); Mohamed Ayadi (ISG - Institut supérieur de gestion - [Université de Tunis]); Riadh Boudhina (ISCAE - Institut Supérieur de Comptabilité et d'Administration des Entreprises - [Université de la Manouba]); René Sandretto (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - [CNRS : UMR5824] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines]) |
| Abstract: | Dans ce papier, nous testons la présence de la contagion durant la crise financière asiatique. A cet effet, nous proposons une nouvelle procédure qui consiste à tester la non-linéarité des mécanismes de propagation des chocs estimés à travers un modèle d'interdépendance de long terme. Nous appliquons cette méthodologie aux marchés des dettes souveraines (spreads) qui mesurent la perception du risque. Nos résultats montrent la contamination de la Malaisie et les Philippines par le phénomène de la contagion. |
| Keywords: | Crise financière asiatique ; Contagion ; ECM non-linéaire ; Asian financial crisis ; Contagion ; Non-linear ECM |
| Date: | 2007–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00137599_v1&r=sea |
| By: | Paul Mosley; Jarita Duasa (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield) |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis which began in east Asia in 1997 is not over, neither is the inquest into its implications for adjustment policy. In the wake of this crisis, we focus here on the role of capital controls, which formed a much publicised part of the crisis-coping strategy in one country (Malaysia) and, less openly, were also deployed by other crisis-afflicted countries. Evaluation so far has examined different target variables with different estimation methods, generally concentrating on efficiency and stability indicators and ignoring equity measures; it has also typically treated `control´ as a one-zero dummy variable, ignoring the `quality´ of intervention and in particular the extent to which efficiency gains are obtained in exchange for controls. Partly because of these limitations, the literature has reached no consensus on the impact of controls, nor therefore about where they fit within the set of post-crisis defence mechanisms. We propose an approach in which the government plays off short-term political security against long-term economic gain; the more insecure its political footing, the greater the weight it gives to political survival, which is likely to increase the probability of controls being imposed. The modelling of this approach generates a governmental `policy reaction function´ and an impact function for controls, which are estimated by simultaneous panel-data methods across a sample of thirty developing and transitional countries between 1980-2003, using, for the period since 1996, the `new´ IMF dataset which differentiates between controls by type. We find that controls appear to cause increases in income equality, and are significantly associated with political insecurity and relatively low levels of openness to trade. They do not, in our analysis, materially influence the level of whole-economy productivity or GDP across the sample of countries examined, although they do influence productivity in particular sectors, in particular manufacturing. But the dispersion around this central finding is wide: the tendency for controls to depress productivity by encouraging rent-seeking sometimes is, and sometimes is not, counteracted by purposive government policy actions to maintain competitiveness. Whether or not this happens – whether, as we put it, controls are `smart´, and the manner in which they are smartened - is vital, on both efficiency and equity grounds. We devise a formula for, and make the case for capital controls which are time-limited, and contain an inbuilt incentive to increased productivity, as a means of improving the sustainability and equity of the adjustment process whilst keeping to a minimum the cost in terms of productive efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Capital Controls, Income Distribution, Political Economy. |
| JEL: | O16 O19 P16 D63 |
| Date: | 2005–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2005009&r=sea |
| By: | Aiko Mineshima; Christopher Browne |
| Abstract: | Remittances are large and have grown substantially over the past decade in the Pacific region. This primarily reflects the impact of emigration due to low growth and limited employment prospects at home. Many Pacific emigrants settle abroad with their families for long periods, but maintain close links with their relatives, villages and churches. The paper finds that the altruistic motive for remittances remains much stronger in the Pacific region than in the rest of Asia, where investment considerations increasingly appear to predominate, especially for the large share of single citizens working abroad for limited periods. |
| Keywords: | Remittances , Pacific island countries , Workers remittances , Pacific Island countries , |
| Date: | 2007–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/35&r=sea |
| By: | Gede Wibawa; Laxman Joshi; Meine Van Noordwijk; Eric André Penot (Agriculteurs et innovations - Innovations et dynamiques des exploitations agricoles - [CIRAD : UPR43], UMR 85 - UMR innovation - [CIRAD : UMR85][INRA] - [sup-agro]) |
| Abstract: | Smallholder rubber plantations in Indonesia, representing more than 80% of the total rubber areas, are very unique in the world. Most smallholder rubber areas are multi-strata in nature. Rubber is not the only perennial crop in that area, but also mixed with timber trees (forest re-growth), fruit trees, and different annual crops. Scientists identified these multistrata systems or called “Jungle Rubber” have multiple functions such as main income source for many farmers; keeping certain level of the forest biodiversity; Carbon sequestration; soil and water conservation. Many efforts have been done by the Indonesian Government to improve the productivity of jungle rubber through monocuture system such as Nucleolus Estate for Smallholding (NES); Project Management Unit (PMU); and Partial System. However, the rate of rubber replanting through those specific projects are too small compared to the total rubber areas in Indonesia. Taking into account the positive aspects of the Rubber Based Agroforestry Systems (RAS), ICRAF, CIRAD and IRRI worked jointly to implement various RAS systems in order to provide farmers better technological options for managing their farms. Results presented in this paper are collected from both on-station and on-farm research. At on-station, rubber planted at a double rows spacing (6m x 2m x 14m) with and without perennial intercrops was monitored and compared to that of the normal spacing (6mx3m). Rubber girth with double row spacing reached tappable size at five years after planting and similar to that planted with normal spacing. Rubber growth at the plot planted with Acacia mangium a very fast growing tree, at the same time with rubber, was very slow: a haft of that of the other treatments. If the fast growing trees are planted two years after rubber planting, then rubber growth is similar to that of normal spacing. Three types of RAS were tested at farmers' plots (RAS1, RAS2, and RAS3). The total number of participants is about 150 farmers, in 100 ha plots, distributed in Jambi, West Kalimantan, West Sumatra and South Sumatra. Results of clone comparison in RAS 1 type of trial (maintenance only on rubber rows) showed that rubber growth variability was more due to the variability of farmers' plots and frequencies of weeding. Rubber clones such as PB 260; RRIC 100 and BPM1 planted under RAS 1 can adapt the RAS conditions and can be tapped at 5-7 years after planting. These findings provide farmers alternatives to develop more environmentally friendly and divers systems in their farms, compared to that of monoculture system. This paper presents also various results related to more intensive RAS (RAS1 and RAS 3). |
| Keywords: | Agroforestry; rubber ; timber trees ; Acacia mangium ; Imperata cylindrica ; RAS ; Jambi ; West Kalimantan ; West Sumatra ; South Sumatra |
| Date: | 2007–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00137596_v1&r=sea |
| By: | Carlo Pietrobelli; Federica Saliola (Department of Law, Università degli Studi Roma Tre) |
| Abstract: | There is an growing literature exploring the increasing fragmentation of production processes and the evolution of internationally-dispersed but functionally-integrated economic activities. However, most of this literature appears to neglect an important part of the story, that is the form and the organization of the relationships (the governance) among the various actors involved in these activities, and their implications for development. We develop this analysis in this paper, and explore it empirically with a new dataset on Thailand. In order to address this issue, we study global and domestic value chains in Thailand, and develop a quantitative measure of their governance, which takes into account different levels and types of buyers’ involvement with suppliers’ activities. We then use this measure to explore econometrically its relationship with suppliers’ performance. An important finding is that the relationships MNCs have with their suppliers is multifold and generally more intense than for domestic value chains. Our estimates suggest that more intense buyers’ involvement with local suppliers, not only in the definition of products’ characteristics, design and quality, but also in technology dissemination and R&D is generally associated with higher suppliers’ productivity. However, the governance of the value chain appears to affect the productivity of domestic value chains’ suppliers to a greater extent than for firms supplying MNCs or for exporters. We suggest that this result may be explained by the different nature of the information and knowledge being exchanged, and by the gaps between the leader and its suppliers. |
| Keywords: | North-South, Keywords: Global Value Chains, Multinational Corporations, Foreign Direct Investment, Upgrading, Productivity |
| JEL: | F23 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2007–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rcr:wpaper:07_02&r=sea |
| By: | Ashraf, Nava; Karlan, Dean S.; Yin, Wesley |
| Abstract: | Female 'empowerment' has increasingly become a policy goal, both as an end to itself and as a means to achieving other development goals. Microfinance in particular has often been argued, but not without controversy, to be a tool for empowering women. Here, using a randomized controlled trial, we examine whether access to an individually-held commitment savings product leads to an increase in female decision-making power within the household. We find positive impacts, particularly for women who have below median decision-making power in the baseline, and we find this leads to a shift towards female-oriented durables goods purchased in the household. |
| Keywords: | commitment; female empowerment; household decision making; microfinance; savings |
| JEL: | D12 D63 D91 J16 O12 O16 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6195&r=sea |
| By: | Giné, Xavier; Karlan, Dean S. |
| Abstract: | Group liability is often portrayed as the key innovation that led to the explosion of the microcredit movement, which started with the Grameen Bank in the 1970s and continues on today with hundreds of institutions around the world. Group lending claims to improve repayment rates and lower transaction costs when lending to the poor by providing incentives for peers to screen, monitor and enforce each other’s loans. However, some argue that group liability creates excessive pressure and discourages good clients from borrowing, jeopardizing both growth and sustainability. Therefore, it remains unclear whether group liability improves the lender’s overall profitability and the poor’s access to financial markets. We worked with a bank in the Philippines to conduct a field experiment to examine these issues. We randomly assigned half of the 169 pre-existing group liability 'centres' of approximately twenty women to individual-liability centres (treatment) and kept the other half as-is with group liability (control). We find that the conversion to individual liability does not affect the repayment rate, and leads to higher growth in centre size by attracting new clients. |
| Keywords: | group liability; informal economies; joint liability; micro-enterprises; microfinance; social capital |
| JEL: | C93 D71 D82 D91 O12 O16 O17 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6193&r=sea |
| By: | Mohamed Ayadi (ISG - Institut supérieur de gestion - [Université de Tunis], Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales de Tunis - [Université de Tunis], GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - [CNRS : UMR5824] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines]); Wajih Khallouli (ISG - Institut supérieur de gestion - [Université de Tunis], Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales de Tunis - [Université de Tunis], GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - [CNRS : UMR5824] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines]); René Sandretto (ISG - Institut supérieur de gestion - [Université de Tunis], Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales de Tunis - [Université de Tunis], GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - [CNRS : UMR5824] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines]) |
| Abstract: | Ce papier a pour objectif de vérifier empiriquement une idée qui tend de plus largement à s'imposer : plutôt que d'opposer les deux explications des crises financières des crises financières récentes basées soit sur des facteurs endogènes aux pays affectés, soit sur des facteurs exogènes à ces pays, notre intelligence de ces périodes critiques gagne, au contraire, à considérer ces deux catégories de facteurs comme étant complémentaires et non alternatives. Les développements théoriques récents ont donné à cette intuition une certaine consistance. Notre contribution vise à l'étayer empiriquement.<br />Après avoir rappelé les termes de l'opposition entre les deux points de vue concurrents, nous montrerons l'intérêt d'une approche en terme d'imbrication de ces deux types de facteurs, en nous basant sur des estimations d'un modèle de Panel à erreurs composées ainsi que sur des statistiques de test des modèles emboîtés (Test de Fisher). Sur la base des résultats que nous avons obtenus à l'aide de données portant sur 14 pays en développement et 3 épisodes de récentes crises (mexicaine 1994, asiatique 1997 et russe 1998), nous établissons la supériorité d'une analyse qui imbrique les causes endogènes et les causes exogènes dans l'explication des récentes crises financières des pays émergents. A ce jour, des éléments de preuve de cette supériorité ont pu être apportés dans le contexte particulier de telle ou telle crise. Notre contribution fournit cette preuve pour l'ensemble des crises financières majeures de ces 10 dernières années et les principaux pays affectés par ces crises. |
| Keywords: | crise financière ; pays émergent |
| Date: | 2007–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00137700_v1&r=sea |