nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2007‒03‒03
eleven papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Chinese Boxes: Whatever Happened to Poverty? By Alejandro Grinspun
  2. Projections of Chinese Energy Demands in 2020 By F. Gerard Adams; Yochanan Shachmurove
  3. Urban Demand for Dairy Products in China: Evidence from Survey Data By Fuller, Frank H.; Beghin, John C.; Rozelle, S.
  4. India needs an Employment Guarantee Scheme By Santosh Mehrotra
  5. The Gender Pay Gap over Women's Working Lifetime By Hyun H. Son; Nanak Kakwani
  6. Premium on Fields of Study: The Returns to Higher Education in Singapore By Yeo Khee Yong; Toh Mun Heng; Shandre Mugan Thangavelu; James Wong
  7. Technical efficiency, technological change and total factor productivity growth in Malaysian manufacturing sector By Jajri, Idris; Ismail, Rahmah
  8. Searching for Equitable Energy Price Reform for Indonesia By Yusuf, Arief Anshory; Resosudarmo, Budy P.
  9. The Impact of Structured Training on Workers’ Employability and Productivity By Ang Boon Heng; Park Cheolsung; Liu Haoming; Shandre M. Thangavelu; James Wong
  10. The Determinants of Customer Interactions with Internet-enabled e-Banking Services By Ziqi Liao; Wing-Keung Wong
  11. SUSTAINABILITY OF FISCAL DEFICITS: THE U.S. EXPERIENCE 1929-2004 By Ananda Jayawickrama; Tilak Abeysinghe

  1. By: Alejandro Grinspun (International Poverty Centre)
    Keywords: Poverty, China
    Date: 2005–04
  2. By: F. Gerard Adams (College of Business Administration, Northeastern University); Yochanan Shachmurove (Department of Economics, City University of New York and Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: As current trends of Chinese economic growth and motorization continue, its demand for higher efficiency fuels (oil, gas, and electric power) will increase. This, coupled with China’s limited domestic production, can translate into a massive demand for energy imports. To predict China’s energy demand into 2020, an econometric model of the Chinese energy economy is constructed based on its energy balance. This paper suggests that China’s increase demand for energy imports will be most sensitive to increases in motorization rather than economic growth. It can be partially offset by increasing domestic energy production or energy efficiency.
    Keywords: China; Energy; Energy Demand; Petroleum and Coal; World Energy Markets; Motorization; Energy Efficiency
    JEL: Q3 Q4 F1 F2 F4 L9 N7 O53 P28
    Date: 2007–02–01
  3. By: Fuller, Frank H.; Beghin, John C.; Rozelle, S.
    Abstract: Using urban survey data collected by the authors in 2001-2002, this paper analyzes demographics, cultural factors, and purchasing behaviors influencing the consumption of fresh milk, yogurt, ice cream, and powered milk in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, China. Results from estimation of a double-hurdle model of consumption show that income and marketing channels are the key determinants of milk consumption levels; however, education, advertising, and convenience play a more important role in consumption of other dairy products. There is some evidence that milk powder, as a consumer good, may be becoming an inferior product in urban China. Finally, the survey data suggest that the growing sophistication of China’s retail sector is influencing consumption of dairy products.
    Keywords: dairy products, demand analysis, survey data, limited dependent variable models, China
    Date: 2007–02–23
  4. By: Santosh Mehrotra (Regional Centre for Asia, UNDP, Bangkok)
    Keywords: Poverty, India, South Asia, Employment, Employment guarantee scheme
    Date: 2005–08
  5. By: Hyun H. Son (International Poverty Centre); Nanak Kakwani (International Poverty Centre)
    Keywords: Gender pay gap, Unpaid work, Poverty, Gender discrimination, Brazil, South Africa, Thailand
    Date: 2006–06
  6. By: Yeo Khee Yong (Manpower Research and Statistics Department, Ministry of Manpower); Toh Mun Heng (Department of Business Policy, NUS Business School, National University of Singapore); Shandre Mugan Thangavelu (Singapore Centre for Applied and Policy Economics (SCAPE) Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); James Wong (Senior Assistant Director Manpower Research and Statistics Department Ministry of Manpower)
  7. By: Jajri, Idris; Ismail, Rahmah
    Abstract: The manufacturing sector is becoming more important for the Malaysia economy. The contribution of output and employment from this sector is continuously increasing since the 1980 an, except for certain period when an economy experiences recession. Viewing from its capacity to spearhead economic growth the government has given emphasis to the manufacturing sector in achieving industrialized nation by year 2020. It is a claim that productivity for this sector had not yet achieved optima level and in certain years, the growth of productivity was smaller than the growth of wages. Even though the concept of productivity usually referred to labour productivity, this concept is very much related to total factor productivity (TFP). This paper attempts to analysis trend of, technical efficiency, technological change and TFP growth in the Malaysian manufacturing sector. The analysis is based on data from the Industrial Manufacturing Survey of 1985 to 2000 collected by the Department of Statistics Malaysia using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The results show that during the period under study, TFP growth is increasing and the major contribution of TFP growth in technical efficiency. Nevertheless, technological change show increasing trend over time. The industries that experienced high technical efficiency are food, wood, chemical and iron products. However, for food and wood industries technical progress is higher than technical progress. The other industry that shows larger technical progress than technical efficiency is textile industry but both values are below unity.
    Keywords: Technical efficiency; technological change; and total factor productivity
    JEL: O30
    Date: 2006
  8. By: Yusuf, Arief Anshory; Resosudarmo, Budy P.
    Abstract: Economic structure, households energy consumption pattern, and household's pattern of factor income in developing countries may typically be different with those of the developed countries, hence the distributional impact of energy price reforms could be. This may be portrayed using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with disaggregated households that allows for rich and accurate distributional story. Using this method, counter-factual scenarios analysis of recent energy price reform in Indonesia is carried out. The result suggests that vehicle fuels subsidy is regressive but increasing the price of domestic fuel (such as kerosene) tends to increase inequality, unless accompanied by a proper and effective compensation scheme. Distributional impact does depend on compensation scheme, its form and its effectiveness. Cash transfers to the poor with moderate ineffectiveness, for example, could not even prevent the increase in poverty nation-wide. Giving more cash to urban poor than to rural poor might have been better than a simple uniform cash transfers, due to urban poor's dependence on kerosene. The result also suggests that non-cash compensation, by subsidizing the poor's education and health spending may not be effective to mitigate the reform despite its desirability as longer-term poverty alleviation programs.
    Keywords: Energy price reform; Distribution; CGE; Indonesia
    JEL: D58 D30
    Date: 2007–01
  9. By: Ang Boon Heng (Manpower Research and Statistics Department, Ministry of Manpower); Park Cheolsung (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Liu Haoming (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Shandre M. Thangavelu (Singapore Centre for Applied and Policy Economics Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); James Wong (Manpower Research and Statistics Department, Ministry of Manpower)
  10. By: Ziqi Liao (Department of Finance & Decision Sciences, Hong Kong Baptist University); Wing-Keung Wong (Risk Management Institute and Department of Economics, National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: This paper empirically explores the major considerations associated with Internet-enabled e-banking systems and systematically measures the determinants of customer interactions with e-banking services. The results suggest that perceived usefulness, ease of use, security, convenience and responsiveness to service requests significantly explain the variation in customer interactions. Exploratory factor analysis and reliability test indicate that these constructs are relevant and reliable. Confirmatory factor analysis confirms that they possess significant convergent and discriminatory validities. Both perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use have significant impact on customer interactions with Internet e-banking services. Perceived security, responsiveness and convenience also represent the primary avenues influencing customer interactions. In particular, stringent security control is critical to Internet e-banking operations. Furthermore, prompt reactions to the service requests from customers should encourage them to use Internet e-banking services. The findings have managerial implications for enhancing extant Internet e-banking operations and developing viable e-banking systems and services.
    Keywords: Customer interactions, determinants, Internet, e-banking, service operations management
  11. By: Ananda Jayawickrama (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Tilak Abeysinghe (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: Recurrent large fiscal deficits and accumulating public debt frequently ring alarm bells around the world on the sustainability of U.S. federal fiscal policy. The present-value borrowing constraint, which states that, for the fiscal policy to be sustainable the current debt stock should match the discounted sum of expected future primary surpluses, provides a framework for analysing fiscal sustainability. Incorporating rational expectations we extend the methodology developed by Hamilton and Flavin (1986) to test the sustainability hypothesis in a cointegrating framework that can accommodate both stationary and non-stationary variables. Our model predicts dynamically diverse episodes of the debt series extremely well. Our results support the hypothesis that the U.S. government is solvent despite the large increase in the debt stock in recent years.
    Keywords: Fiscal Policy Sustainability, Present-value Borrowing Constraint, Rational Expectations, Cointegration.
    JEL: E62 H62 H63

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