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on South East Asia |
| By: | Geoffrey Ducanes (University of the Philippines); Marie Anne Cagas (Asian Development Bank and University of the Philippines); Duo Qin (Queen Mary, University of London and Asian Development Bank); Pilipinas Quising (Asian Development Bank); Mohammad Abdur Razzaque (University of Dhaka, Bangladesh) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies in four Asian countries – Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, and the Philippines – by means of structural macroeconometric model simulations. It is found that short-term fiscal multipliers from an untargeted increase in government expenditure are positive but much less than those from an increased expenditure targeted to capital spending. The multiplier effects from fiscal expansion via a tax rate reduction are found to be typically much less than through higher spending. The effectiveness of automatic stabilizers in general, and more specifically whether expenditure or tax-side stabilizer is more effective, differs across countries. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy, Growth, Public finance, Deficit |
| JEL: | E62 E17 C53 P52 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp564&r=sea |
| By: | Linda Y. Yueh |
| Abstract: | This paper explores whether the patent law and intellectual property rights (IPR) system have resulted in innovation in China during the reform period. It appears that the patent laws have produced a stock of patents, where the success rates of patent applications are fairly uniform across the country. As the IPR framework does not vary across provinces, we asked which factors would explain innovation in China. We find the main determinants of patents to be R&D expenditure and foreign direct investment, but not the number of researchers, though the level of human capital matters. We conclude that the patent laws in China have been associated with innovation that has accompanied economic growth despite imperfections in the legal system. |
| Keywords: | Intellectual Property Rights, Patent Laws, Law and Economics, Innovation, Economic Growth, China |
| JEL: | O34 K29 O4 O53 K19 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:271&r=sea |
| By: | Xing, Li; Fan, Shenggen; Luo, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Xiaobo |
| Abstract: | "Increased regional inequality has been a major concern in many emerging economies like China, India, Vietnam and Thailand. However, even a large inequality is observed within the lagging regions. The objective of this paper is to look into what are the sources of within region inequality using the community surveys and a census type of households in Western China. This snapshot view of inequality within and between rural villages in western China is based on a census-type household survey in three administrative villages and a sampling survey of 286 natural villages in the poor province of Guizhou in 2004. In contrast to coastal regions, nonfarm income is distributed unevenly in this inland western region. This accounts for the largest share of overall income inequality. But agriculture is still the rural people's major source of livelihood in this particular location. On the expenditure side, health care is one of the most important sources of inequality. Because rural income is strongly related to human capital, the uneven access to health care will translate into a larger income gap in the long run. The analysis based on the natural village survey indicates that income varies widely across villages. Access to infrastructure and markets, education, and political participation explain most of this variation. These findings have important implications on the future development strategy in promoting lagging regions development and poverty reduction. While the overall economic development will be the main instrument to bring the majority poor out of poverty, a targeted approach has become increasingly crucial in helping the poor villages and households. It is critical to understand why these villages and households can not participate in the growth process and how development programs and various transfer programs help them to overcome the constraints they face." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Rural development, Poverty reduction, Inequality, Public investment, China, Asia, Household surveys, Agriculture, Income Rural areas, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:31&r=sea |
| By: | Zhang, Xiaobo |
| Abstract: | "This paper highlights the difference between secure investor property rights and loosely defined individual property rights. Globalization and fiscal decentralization have intensified this difference. On the one hand, in the presence of mobile foreign direct investments and under the arrangement of fiscal decentralization, local governments compete vigorously to offer various protections on the property rights of investors; on the other hand, local governments and developers attempt to acquire land at as low price as possible by taking advantage of the loopholes inherent in the Chinese law. Secure investor property rights together with weak protections on individuals' land property rights is argued to be one of the major drivers of China's rapid economic growth. But the same factor can veer those individuals being deprived of land into violence and social unrest, which may undermine China's social stability and long-term sustainable growth." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Property rights, Investments, economic growth, China, individual land property, Fiscal policies, Decentralization, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:28&r=sea |
| By: | Jorge Blázquez-Lidoy; Javier Rodríguez |
| Abstract: | China’s economy has expanded by leaps and bounds, with dazzling progress since it first opened to foreign investment and reform in 1978. Over the last 25 years and after a long period of economic autarky, the country has emerged as a major player in world trade. Its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 was a milestone. China presents both a threat and an opportunity for Latin American emerging markets. On average and despite some exceptions, Latin America is a clear trade winner from Chinese global integration. This contribution studies China’s exporting and importing structure, using a database of 620 different goods. It builds two indices of trade competition to compare Chinese impacts over 1998-2004 on 34 economies, of which 15 are Latin American. The results generally confirm that there is no relevant trade competition between China and Latin America. Not surprisingly, countries that export mainly commodities face lower competition, because China is a net importer of raw materials. But the emergence of China is also a wake-up call for Latin American countries. More reforms are needed, especially in infrastructures if the region wishes to maintain its comparative advantages. Latin America will have also to deal with the Chinese bonanza. The dark side of this windfall is the risk of being stuck out of the global value chain in a raw material corner. <BR>L’économie de la Chine s’est développée à pas de géants, en progressant de manière spectaculaire depuis qu’elle a commencé à s’ouvrir aux investissements étrangers et s’est réformée en 1978. Tout au long des 25 dernières années et suite à une longue période d’autarcie économique, le pays s’est imposé en tant qu’acteur majeur du commerce mondial. Son adhésion à l’Organisation Mondiale du Commerce (OMC) en 2001 a été un événement de taille. Ainsi, la Chine représente à la fois une menace et une opportunité pour les marchés émergents d’Amérique latine. En moyenne et en dépit de certaines exceptions, l’Amérique latine fait partie des gagnants de l’intégration globale de la Chine. Ce document étudie les structures d’importation et d’exportation de la Chine, en s’appuyant sur une base de données composée de 620 biens. Deux indices de compétitivité commerciale ont été élaborés afin de comparer les impacts de la Chine sur 34 économies tout au long de la période 1998-2004, 15 d’entre elles étant des économies latino-américaines. De manière générale, les résultats confirment qu’il n’y a pas de concurrence importante entre la Chine et l’Amérique latine. Mais l’émergence de la Chine appelle aussi les pays latino-américains à se réveiller. Si la région souhaite maintenir ses avantages comparatifs, d’autres réformes sont nécessaires, en particulier au niveau des infrastructures. |
| Date: | 2006–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaaa:252-en&r=sea |
| By: | Duo Qin (Queen Mary, University of London); Marie Anne Cagas (University of the Philippines); Geoffrey Ducanes (University of the Philippines); Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos (Asian Development Bank); Pilipinas F. Quising (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines empirically the dynamic process of regional market integration for twelve individual Asian economies by a new modeling approach, which combines DF with ECM. This new approach enables us to obtain latent regional dynamic factors, which correspond well with the ‘foreign’ parity variables in theory when market is imperfectly integrated and which act, in explaining domestic short-run price adjustments, as leading-indicators in an error-correction form. The power of the DF-ECM approach is illustrated in its application to measuring market integration in the developing Asian region using monthly data of the past decade. |
| Keywords: | Law of one price, Market integration, Dynamic factor, Error-correction model |
| JEL: | F31 F40 F15 C22 C33 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp565&r=sea |
| By: | Enzo Weber |
| Abstract: | This paper embarks to analyse the role of exports and investment supposed to be major sources of economic growth in Asia Pacific. Therefore at first, the cointegration properties of exports, capital formation and GDP are examined in vector error correction models (VECMs). The results confirm the crucial role of exports and investment in the Asian growth dynamics. In a second stage, the structural shocks are identified by short- and long-run restrictions. These shocks, as well as the corresponding dynamic responses, are then correlated across all sample countries to provide insight into the depth of regional coherence. At last, the identified trends are explained by various macroeconomic variables. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, Structural VECM, Export, Investment, Asia Pacific |
| JEL: | O11 F15 C32 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-064&r=sea |
| By: | McCulloch, Neil; Weisbrod, Julian; Timmer, Peter |
| Abstract: | Since most poor live in rural areas, primarily engaged in low productivity farm activity, the pathway out of poverty must be strongly connected to productivity increases, whether they are realised in farming, rural non-farm enterprises or via urban migration. By utilizing the IFLS panel dataset for 1993 and 2000 from Indonesia, this paper shows, using empirical techniques, which pathways out of poverty were most successful in Indonesia’s past. Our findings suggest that the increased engagement of rural farmers in rural non-farm enterprises is a key way to alleviate rural poverty. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec06:4752&r=sea |
| By: | Grimm, Michael |
| Abstract: | The literature suggests that in developing countries illness shocks at the household level can have a negative and severe impact on household income. Few studies have so fare examined the effects of mortality. The major difference between illness and mortality shocks is that a death of a household member does not only induce direct costs such as medical and funeral costs and possibly a loss in income, but that also the number of consumption units in the household is reduced. Studies so far focused mainly on adult mortality, disregarded the death of other household members and distinguished only insufficiently between the immediate impact, and the impact after coping strategies have been implemented. Using data for Indonesia, I show that the economic costs related to the death of children and older persons seem to be fully compensated by the decrease of consumption units in the household. In contrast, when prime-age adults die, survivors face additional costs due to the loss of income and, in consequence, implement coping strategies. These strategies are quite efficient and it seems that on average households even over-compensate their loss. This suggests that the implementation of general formal safety nets which are still absent in Indonesia—as in most developing countries—can give priority to the insurance of other types of risks, such as unemployment, illness or natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | Mortality, risk, insurance, micro-model of consumption growth, Indonesia |
| JEL: | D12 I12 J12 O12 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec06:4732&r=sea |
| By: | Grégory Vanel (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II]); David Hoyrup (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - [CNRS : FRE2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II]) |
| Abstract: | La contribution que nous proposons s'intéresse à la dynamique d'intégration régionale en Asie orientale, suite à la déclaration des pays de l'ASEAN, de la Chine et du Japon, qui souhaitent l'établissement d'une zone de libre-échange d'ici une décennie. A travers une analyse empirique de cette dynamique, elle pose la question de la compatibilité entre un processus d'intégration régionale en profond renouvellement, avec le rôle de plus en plus prépondérant de la Chine dans le commerce mondial, et l'utilisation toujours aussi massive du dollar par les pays concernés, dans leur commerce international et dans leurs régimes de change. Plus particulièrement, cette contribution rend compte de la fragilité de l'intégration en Asie orientale, que ce soit dans ses dimensions économiques et financieres ou dans sa dimension institutionnelle. Ensuite, elle montre que chaque pays, pour des raisons qui lui sont propres, a encore intérêt à utiliser le dollar comme devise de référence. Enfin, elle montre que cette configuration pose deux types de problèmes, susceptibles de remettre en cause la dynamique d'intégration régionale observée : d'abord, elle stimule des forces centrifuges, en favorisant la divergence des intérêts commerciaux entre les pays les moins avancés et les pays les plus avancés d'Asie orientale ; ensuite, elle fait peser un risque financier de plus en plus important aux pays moteurs d'Asie orientale, et notamment à la Chine. |
| Keywords: | échange international ; intégration régionale ; monnaie ; zone monétaire ; libre-échange ; commerce international |
| Date: | 2006–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00094869_v1&r=sea |